Wimbledon 2013: 26th June: A Day of Attrition

          Who said tennis was a predictable sport...? I think that idiot may have been me. In my French Open post, I made a big point about how tennis now is all about the four big names, with no-one else likely to get a look-in for the foreseeable future. How wrong I was. Today's events have left a gaping hole in the bottom half of the male draw, a hole that a relatively inexperienced player will inevitably fill. This gives an unbelievable chance to someone, and arguably, the net winner out of today is Andy Murray, who analysts now start to see as having a fairly straight-forward run to the final. If he doesn't win it this year, you fear for his chances against a full pack.

           I thought yesterday's events were dramatic, with the world number 5, Rafael Nadal, fresh off the back of his French Open success, struggle with an injury and depart to the hands of the relatively unknown, world-ranked 135, Steve Darcis. In my Andy Murray and Wimbledon opening post, I made a brief suggestion of how I expected the two weeks to pan out. I predicted that Nadal would make a slow start. I did not expect that to be backwards! However, given his clear agony throughout, particularly in the latter stages, it was clear to see that he was not at his best, and as a result, my prediction can be vindicated slightly (a thinly veiled excuse, I'm sure you'll agree!) I fully expected this to be the major shock of the two weeks, especially when we consider the Lukas Rosol incident of 12 months ago.

           However, today's events have utterly eclipsed the drama of yesterday afternoon. Even before play had started today, the number of drop-outs began to climb. First, the huge John Isner retired injured from his match, having only played 2 games. Then, Rafael Nadal's conqueror, Darcis, had to pull out, citing the decision as 'the hardest of my career'. The first massive name fell just before play started on the show courts, with womens' number 2 Victoria Azarenka withdrawing at quarter to 1. After a horrendous-looking fall on the opening day, this decision came as little surprise. Her departure added further controversy, as she publicly stated that the courts were too slippery, bordering on dangerous. Given the amount of injuries we have witnessed over the past three days, her claims are certainly substantiated. However, I have yet to see a year where the ground staff do not perform their tasks effectively, and, as a result, we must trust the All England Club to rectify any problems with the court surfaces. Also, the fact that by this time in most years it has rained at least once should mean that the courts are comparatively drier to previous years. At the very least, players should be able to cope with the slippery and wet surfaces, having tolerated them every year for as long as the tournament has been in existence.

            If we thought the early withdrawals would be the main talking point of the day, the high profile exits started. 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt was the first to go, being defeated in four sets by the flamboyant Dustin Brown. An unconventional style and breath-taking execution of shots led the 27 year old German to his biggest win to date, netting him a cool £63,000 in the process. Womens' 13th seed Ana Ivanovic was next, with 19-year-old junior champion Eugenie Bouchard dumping the former world number 1 out. The shock results in the womens' draw continued, with number 9 seed Caroline Wozniacki beaten by unknown Czech Petra Cevkovska, before what was the shock of the day, with heavily fancied Maria Sharapova eliminated at the hands of world number 131 Larcha De Brito. Further withdrawals of Queens' finalist Marin Cilic and world number 6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga due to injury took the day's total to 7 walkovers/withdrawals, a record for the tournament. The overall total currently stands at 10, and with injuries happening wherever you look in SW19, the number threatens to climb even higher by the end of the week.

             All of this drama will have inevitably led to many British fans being fearful for the survival of Andy Murray. They needn't have worried, with the Scot coming through his match against Yen Hsun-Lu in straight sets. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would be very suspicious about the possibility that Ivan Lendl had tampered with the water supply for Murray's competitors, or had over-watered the courts on which his potential opponents will play! These suspicions are only strengthened by this evening's events. Murray's main competitor in the bottom half of the draw, Roger Federer, played on Centre Court against the under-rated and dangerous serve-and-volleyer Sergei Stahovsky. Having won the opening set in a tense tie break, the match was levelled in another tie break. With the 17 Grand Slam winner struggling to adapt to Stahovsky's style of play, he lost the third 7-5, putting his run of 36 consecutive quarter-finals in severe danger. The reigning Wimbledon champion started the final set badly too, going a break down at 3-1. A Federer fightback ensued, with the Swiss breaking back to force a third tie break. After another nervy and tight encounter, the former world number 1 saved one match point with a stunning passing shot. However, he succumbed to the pressure of a second, slicing a shot wide to hand Stahovsky an incredible win, and put the cherry on top of the day of shocks.

               Today's events have decimated both the men's and women's draw, leaving the door wide open for less prominent players to reach the latter stages. It also pours doubt on my earlier assertion that tennis is becoming predictable, as anyone who made a bet on today's results will have made a touch more than a small fortune! However, today's results will be forgotten to a certain extent if we end with a Murray v Djokovic final, and a Serena Williams womens' victory, as the finals will still look predictable. So long may the shocks continue, and I truly hope we have a Goran Ivanisevic winner this time around, that will last for another generation.

2013 French Open: Can Nadal Be Stopped on Clay?

This weekend represents the start of this year’s second grand slam of the tennis season, as the great names of the modern game make their way to Roland Garros. This tournament signals the start of a busy summer for tennis, with two majors in the space of a month and a half. Whilst English fans often simply see Roland Garros as a pre-cursor to the ‘greatest major’ in Wimbledon, we must not forget that the Parisian competition offers the same amount of world ranking points. It is therefore only home bias, and to a certain extent, a feeling of inevitability over the winner of the men’s tournament, that forces that viewpoint.

 

In terms of British interest, we were dealt a serious, and potentially fatal, blow when British number 1 and world number 2 Andy Murray announced he would be withdrawing from the French Open, having suffered a recurrence of the back injury that had plagued him for the last couple of years. British fans will be looking anxiously at his progress, hoping that he will be fit to compete on the grass at Wimbledon. This leaves us mostly looking at the women’s draw for British hopes, with both Heather Watson and Laura Robson having significant successes in recent tournaments. Whilst winning the tournament outright may be too much to ask for these young prodigies, getting to the second week will certainly be the primary aim.

 

The winner of the men’s tournament has been practically pre-determined for the last 8 years, with clay specialist Rafael Nadal winning the tournament a record 7 out of the last 8 contests, and is the winner of the last 3. The Spaniard, ranked world number 4, will undoubtedly start this tournament as favourite, especially with Murray’s withdrawal. However, he has not had the most consistent season, suffering from injury, and we have also seen him exit big tournaments in shocks in the past. A five set defeat in that classic match against Lukas Rosol at Wimbledon last year gives us some element of doubt about simply handing him the trophy now.

 

The other prospective winners are fairly obvious. Roger Federer will once again be there or there about come the end of the tournament. The Swiss master has a never-say-die attitude that has allowed him to adapt his game to best suit his advancing age. You can never write off a man that has reached the final of every Grand Slam at least 5 times. Novak Djokovic is the other obvious choice for winner, but the Serbian has often found Roland Garros a tough nut to crack. It is the only Grand Slam he requires to complete his Career Grand Slam, and as a result will undoubtedly be driven, especially after his final defeat to Nadal last year. However, that final appearance was his first in Paris, and he does not have a particularly good record in the French capital. Outside of the top two, David Ferrer has always been considered to be good on clay, as Andy Murray has experienced to his cost in the past. Although the Spaniard has never reached a final at Roland Garros, a couple of fortunate results is all it would take to see the world number 5 to his inaugural Grand Slam final. Similarly, French hopes will largely be pinned on the likeable Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whose signature victory dance has endeared many of the fans to him. He has extinguished Roger Federer’s hopes on numerous occasions, making his case to be a viable contender for this title. The home fans will also be pushing the world number 8 on, which has an inevitable positive effect on the performance of the home players. No-one outside these players has a predictable chance of winning the French Open, but as we have seen, anything can happen over the next two weeks.

 

As far as the women’s tournament goes, the winner is slightly less predictable. Though Serena Williams has been made strong favourite for the title, there is less of a one-person domination than in the men’s game. Also, the fact that Serena herself was shocked with a round 1 defeat at Roland Garros last year means that she is not infallible at the Parisian tournament. A 54 minute 6-0, 6-1 victory in the first round this year, however, suggests she is back to her very best form. Last year’s winner, Maria Sharapova, should also be considered to be in with a chance of winning it. Though her recent form has not been fantastic, she often produces her best on the big occasions, and therefore cannot be written off. Other prospective winners include: the noisy Victoria Azarenka, winner of two Australian Open titles, Agnieska Radwanska, winner of last year’s Wimbledon, clay specialist Li Na, 2011 French Open champion and the feisty Aussie Samantha Stosur, amongst others. The women’s game is far more open than the men’s and promises to be a very entertaining contest.

 

The return of Grand Slam tennis to Europe truly signifies the start of summer. A fascinating (and sometimes noisy) few months will follow, with two of the greatest tournaments in modern tennis. Hopefully we will see very little rain, and therefore no need for the dreaded covers. The French Open promises to be a very intriguing contest in both fields, and one I will be glued to.