Wimbledon 2013: 26th June: A Day of Attrition

          Who said tennis was a predictable sport...? I think that idiot may have been me. In my French Open post, I made a big point about how tennis now is all about the four big names, with no-one else likely to get a look-in for the foreseeable future. How wrong I was. Today's events have left a gaping hole in the bottom half of the male draw, a hole that a relatively inexperienced player will inevitably fill. This gives an unbelievable chance to someone, and arguably, the net winner out of today is Andy Murray, who analysts now start to see as having a fairly straight-forward run to the final. If he doesn't win it this year, you fear for his chances against a full pack.

           I thought yesterday's events were dramatic, with the world number 5, Rafael Nadal, fresh off the back of his French Open success, struggle with an injury and depart to the hands of the relatively unknown, world-ranked 135, Steve Darcis. In my Andy Murray and Wimbledon opening post, I made a brief suggestion of how I expected the two weeks to pan out. I predicted that Nadal would make a slow start. I did not expect that to be backwards! However, given his clear agony throughout, particularly in the latter stages, it was clear to see that he was not at his best, and as a result, my prediction can be vindicated slightly (a thinly veiled excuse, I'm sure you'll agree!) I fully expected this to be the major shock of the two weeks, especially when we consider the Lukas Rosol incident of 12 months ago.

           However, today's events have utterly eclipsed the drama of yesterday afternoon. Even before play had started today, the number of drop-outs began to climb. First, the huge John Isner retired injured from his match, having only played 2 games. Then, Rafael Nadal's conqueror, Darcis, had to pull out, citing the decision as 'the hardest of my career'. The first massive name fell just before play started on the show courts, with womens' number 2 Victoria Azarenka withdrawing at quarter to 1. After a horrendous-looking fall on the opening day, this decision came as little surprise. Her departure added further controversy, as she publicly stated that the courts were too slippery, bordering on dangerous. Given the amount of injuries we have witnessed over the past three days, her claims are certainly substantiated. However, I have yet to see a year where the ground staff do not perform their tasks effectively, and, as a result, we must trust the All England Club to rectify any problems with the court surfaces. Also, the fact that by this time in most years it has rained at least once should mean that the courts are comparatively drier to previous years. At the very least, players should be able to cope with the slippery and wet surfaces, having tolerated them every year for as long as the tournament has been in existence.

            If we thought the early withdrawals would be the main talking point of the day, the high profile exits started. 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt was the first to go, being defeated in four sets by the flamboyant Dustin Brown. An unconventional style and breath-taking execution of shots led the 27 year old German to his biggest win to date, netting him a cool £63,000 in the process. Womens' 13th seed Ana Ivanovic was next, with 19-year-old junior champion Eugenie Bouchard dumping the former world number 1 out. The shock results in the womens' draw continued, with number 9 seed Caroline Wozniacki beaten by unknown Czech Petra Cevkovska, before what was the shock of the day, with heavily fancied Maria Sharapova eliminated at the hands of world number 131 Larcha De Brito. Further withdrawals of Queens' finalist Marin Cilic and world number 6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga due to injury took the day's total to 7 walkovers/withdrawals, a record for the tournament. The overall total currently stands at 10, and with injuries happening wherever you look in SW19, the number threatens to climb even higher by the end of the week.

             All of this drama will have inevitably led to many British fans being fearful for the survival of Andy Murray. They needn't have worried, with the Scot coming through his match against Yen Hsun-Lu in straight sets. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would be very suspicious about the possibility that Ivan Lendl had tampered with the water supply for Murray's competitors, or had over-watered the courts on which his potential opponents will play! These suspicions are only strengthened by this evening's events. Murray's main competitor in the bottom half of the draw, Roger Federer, played on Centre Court against the under-rated and dangerous serve-and-volleyer Sergei Stahovsky. Having won the opening set in a tense tie break, the match was levelled in another tie break. With the 17 Grand Slam winner struggling to adapt to Stahovsky's style of play, he lost the third 7-5, putting his run of 36 consecutive quarter-finals in severe danger. The reigning Wimbledon champion started the final set badly too, going a break down at 3-1. A Federer fightback ensued, with the Swiss breaking back to force a third tie break. After another nervy and tight encounter, the former world number 1 saved one match point with a stunning passing shot. However, he succumbed to the pressure of a second, slicing a shot wide to hand Stahovsky an incredible win, and put the cherry on top of the day of shocks.

               Today's events have decimated both the men's and women's draw, leaving the door wide open for less prominent players to reach the latter stages. It also pours doubt on my earlier assertion that tennis is becoming predictable, as anyone who made a bet on today's results will have made a touch more than a small fortune! However, today's results will be forgotten to a certain extent if we end with a Murray v Djokovic final, and a Serena Williams womens' victory, as the finals will still look predictable. So long may the shocks continue, and I truly hope we have a Goran Ivanisevic winner this time around, that will last for another generation.

The 2013 French Open Finals: Same Old, Same Old?

             In the French Open preview post, I set out who I thought would be the most likely candidates for both the men's and women's championships, hoping for a surprise or two along the way. As the end of another Grand Slam draws ever nearer, it is clear from the four finalists that this has not happened. No Goran Ivanisevic-style surprise for us this time around, with the biggest shock being that it is clay-court specialist David Ferrer, and not Roger Federer, in the men's final with Rafa Nadal. The top four domination of the men's game seems set to continue, with only Federer's position being weakened by the events of the last two weeks. In the women's game, it is arguably even more predictable, as the family that have monopolised the game for the past decade and a half remain in control, albeit halved in power.

              With a little examination of the finalists and their run to the tournament's summit, we can see how monotonous today's game is. It could certainly be argued that has always been the case, especially in the men's game, with dominance from the likes of Borg, McEnroe, Connors, Becker, Agassi, Sampras, and more recently, Federer regularly characterising tennis. Therefore repeatedly seeing the same names perhaps should not be surprising. However, with the increased publicity and awareness of tennis in recent years, should we have expected to see more competition than experienced previously?

               I will begin with today's women's final, contested between pre-tournament favourite Serena Williams, and reigning champion Maria Sharapova. Beginning with Serena, her route to the final has been relatively simple. Crushing her first three opponents for the loss of just 6 games, she cruised into the second week, doing little to challenge the assertion that the tournament winner is practically pre-determined. Another straight-sets victory in the fourth round against the 15th seed, Roberta Vinci, suggests that even the top 20 is not particularly competitive, seeing the American into the quarter final without dropping a set. There she met Svetlana Kuznetsova, who, despite being unseeded, is considered a very dangerous player. So it proved, with Serena being pushed all the way to the full three sets, claiming a 6-3 victory in the 3rd. The loss of a set evidently angered Williams, as she destroyed 5th seed Sara Errani in the subsequent semi-final to progress to yet another final, eradicating the memories of last year's shocking 1st round exit at Roland Garros.

              Her opponent, Maria Sharapova, has had an altogether more strenuous passage to her second successive Parisian final. Despite winning all of her opening four matches without dropping a set, matching the achievement of Serena, she found it considerably more difficult than the American to whitewash opponents, conceding more and more games in each match she was involved in. The quarter final saw the Russian concede her first set of the tournament against Serb, Jelena Jankovic. A horrendous start saw the reigning champion lose the first set 6-0 to the world number 18, and though she recovered to win in three sets, she can ill-afford to reproduce this start against Serena. Her semi final also saw her lose a set, with Victoria Azarenka levelling the match after a strong start from Maria. Her battling third set victory shows that she certainly has the fight to challenge Serena. Whether a poor start would prove fatal is difficult to tell. Serena is definitely the favourite for today's final, but I would not count out Maria.

               Moving on to the men's final, it appears almost unnecessary to reveal that Rafa Nadal is in another French Open final, as his dominance of the Grand Slam is well documented. The 7-times winner has had a more difficult route to this year's centrepiece than many would have expected. In both his first, and second round matches, he could only manage to win in 4 sets, suggesting signs of a Lukas Rosol-esque repeat, and the shock tennis seemingly requires. Nevertheless, he stabilised in later rounds, progressing from there to the semi finals without dropping a set, including a particularly impressive performance against Stanislav Wawrinka in the quarter-finals. There he met world number 1 Novak Djokovic, and yesterday saw one of the best matches in French Open history. A rollercoaster semi-final, with both men having ample opportunity to claim victory, Nadal triumphed in a mammoth 4 and a half hour, 5 set encounter, winning the final set 9-7 to progress to his eighth Roland Garros final. His trials and tribulations along the way, however, suggests that it is becoming ever more difficult to remain successful in the men's game.

               In contrast, tomorrow will mark the inaugural Grand Slam final of David Ferrer's career. The clay court specialist has had a remarkably successful journey to the final, being the only one of the four finalists in either the men's or women's games not to drop a set. Bearing in mind the dominance of Rafa Nadal in recent years here, there are few who would have predicted that! Most impressive were his victories in the quarter and semi finals against firstly Tommy Robredo, whom he dispatched comfortably 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, and then home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. With an expectant home crowd, desperate for a French Grand Slam winner, to comprehensively beat the Frenchman 6-1, 7-6, 6-2 is highly impressive. To beat Nadal he will have to be at the top of his game, and get a touch of luck along the way, but with the form he is in, there is no reason why we can't see a significant shock tomorrow. It would certainly be nice to show that there is a bit of variety in the game.

               The game of tennis has always had dominating factors, but certainly with the increasing coverage and publicity, I would have expected to see a more competitive tournament. If we compare tennis to another sport that has seen a recent increase in publicity, like Formula 1, we see the dominance of certain players maintained in tennis, and a much more competitive and open field in the latter. This makes me wonder if we will ever see a truly competitive tennis tournament, without there being some element of pre-determined nature to them. Until we do, moments like Ivanisevic's at Wimbledon will continue to be tennis gold.   

2013 French Open: Can Nadal Be Stopped on Clay?

This weekend represents the start of this year’s second grand slam of the tennis season, as the great names of the modern game make their way to Roland Garros. This tournament signals the start of a busy summer for tennis, with two majors in the space of a month and a half. Whilst English fans often simply see Roland Garros as a pre-cursor to the ‘greatest major’ in Wimbledon, we must not forget that the Parisian competition offers the same amount of world ranking points. It is therefore only home bias, and to a certain extent, a feeling of inevitability over the winner of the men’s tournament, that forces that viewpoint.

 

In terms of British interest, we were dealt a serious, and potentially fatal, blow when British number 1 and world number 2 Andy Murray announced he would be withdrawing from the French Open, having suffered a recurrence of the back injury that had plagued him for the last couple of years. British fans will be looking anxiously at his progress, hoping that he will be fit to compete on the grass at Wimbledon. This leaves us mostly looking at the women’s draw for British hopes, with both Heather Watson and Laura Robson having significant successes in recent tournaments. Whilst winning the tournament outright may be too much to ask for these young prodigies, getting to the second week will certainly be the primary aim.

 

The winner of the men’s tournament has been practically pre-determined for the last 8 years, with clay specialist Rafael Nadal winning the tournament a record 7 out of the last 8 contests, and is the winner of the last 3. The Spaniard, ranked world number 4, will undoubtedly start this tournament as favourite, especially with Murray’s withdrawal. However, he has not had the most consistent season, suffering from injury, and we have also seen him exit big tournaments in shocks in the past. A five set defeat in that classic match against Lukas Rosol at Wimbledon last year gives us some element of doubt about simply handing him the trophy now.

 

The other prospective winners are fairly obvious. Roger Federer will once again be there or there about come the end of the tournament. The Swiss master has a never-say-die attitude that has allowed him to adapt his game to best suit his advancing age. You can never write off a man that has reached the final of every Grand Slam at least 5 times. Novak Djokovic is the other obvious choice for winner, but the Serbian has often found Roland Garros a tough nut to crack. It is the only Grand Slam he requires to complete his Career Grand Slam, and as a result will undoubtedly be driven, especially after his final defeat to Nadal last year. However, that final appearance was his first in Paris, and he does not have a particularly good record in the French capital. Outside of the top two, David Ferrer has always been considered to be good on clay, as Andy Murray has experienced to his cost in the past. Although the Spaniard has never reached a final at Roland Garros, a couple of fortunate results is all it would take to see the world number 5 to his inaugural Grand Slam final. Similarly, French hopes will largely be pinned on the likeable Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whose signature victory dance has endeared many of the fans to him. He has extinguished Roger Federer’s hopes on numerous occasions, making his case to be a viable contender for this title. The home fans will also be pushing the world number 8 on, which has an inevitable positive effect on the performance of the home players. No-one outside these players has a predictable chance of winning the French Open, but as we have seen, anything can happen over the next two weeks.

 

As far as the women’s tournament goes, the winner is slightly less predictable. Though Serena Williams has been made strong favourite for the title, there is less of a one-person domination than in the men’s game. Also, the fact that Serena herself was shocked with a round 1 defeat at Roland Garros last year means that she is not infallible at the Parisian tournament. A 54 minute 6-0, 6-1 victory in the first round this year, however, suggests she is back to her very best form. Last year’s winner, Maria Sharapova, should also be considered to be in with a chance of winning it. Though her recent form has not been fantastic, she often produces her best on the big occasions, and therefore cannot be written off. Other prospective winners include: the noisy Victoria Azarenka, winner of two Australian Open titles, Agnieska Radwanska, winner of last year’s Wimbledon, clay specialist Li Na, 2011 French Open champion and the feisty Aussie Samantha Stosur, amongst others. The women’s game is far more open than the men’s and promises to be a very entertaining contest.

 

The return of Grand Slam tennis to Europe truly signifies the start of summer. A fascinating (and sometimes noisy) few months will follow, with two of the greatest tournaments in modern tennis. Hopefully we will see very little rain, and therefore no need for the dreaded covers. The French Open promises to be a very intriguing contest in both fields, and one I will be glued to.