England Series: The Developing - The Future's Bright?

                              In the build-up to Tuesday's do-or-die fixture at home to Poland, I have been running an England mini-series, looking at the talking points that have haunted the England side's preparations, and looking at their chances going forward. A few weeks ago, I gave my opinion on Greg Dyke's comments that England should be looking to reach the semi-finals of the Euro 2020 competition, and win the World Cup in 2022 in Qatar. This assumes that the groundwork is already in place for England to become a viable winner of trophies, as Spain's 'Golden Age' really began a decade or so previously, with the change of several rules regarding training of youngsters. Using the State of the Game report, as well as evidence from the current England squad and the lower leagues, I will examine just how much creedence can be given to Dyke's claims. I dismissed them a few weeks ago-was I wrong to?

                               After a year and a half of relentless qualification matches, England find themselves on the brink of getting to yet another major tournament. After a morale boosting victory against Montenegro on Friday (the review of which can be found here), only Poland stand between our country and a place in Brazil next year. Whilst few (including the majority of the FA) expect us to achieve any real success in Rio, the plans above indicate that victory is expected in the coming decades. Having seen 'The State of the Game' report, this final post of my six-part England series considers the future of English football, asking whether the majority of our next few tournaments' teams will be found from the top teams, or if the lower leagues could be the place where we will begin finding the next generation of our national team.

                         Bearing in mind the target for an England victory is the Qatar World Cup in 2022, I wonder just how many of our current crop of players will still be around come that competition. Given that this World Cup is nearly a decade away, it is quite obvious that only players under the age of 25 currently will realistically have any chance of playing in Qatar. This obviously rules out the older members of our current squad, with the likes of Lampard, Gerrard and Cole more likely to retire within the next five years. More surprising is the amount of players that we will not realistically have at our disposal in ten years. If we take the cut-off point as being 25, with anyone older than that unlikely to travel to the Middle East, I will now list the ages and players that will not be there.

31-Phil Jagielka, Jermain Defoe, Joleon Lescott
30-Ben Foster
29-Glen Johnson
28-Leighton Baines, Ashley Young
27-Wayne Rooney, Gary Cahill, James Milner
26-Joe Hart, Aaron Lennon

                            As you can see, the vast majority of this group are first-team players, all of which will be missed massively, and all of which will need to be replaced. Arguably the only first team players that will remain, having discarded these, are Kyle Walker (23), Andros Townsend (21), Phil Jones (21), Jack Wilshere (21), Tom Cleverley (23), Theo Walcott (24), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (20), Daniel Sturridge (24) and Danny Welbeck (22). Whilst these are all good players, it leaves a considerable hole in the English team. Who could we possibly replace our outgoing stars with?

                           As I discussed in my last post, 'The State of the Game' report has shown that only 32% of the minutes played in the Premier League were played by Englishmen, compared to Spaniards making up 59% in their home country, and Germans making up 50%. This certainly leaves us at a disadvantage when it comes to producing young, bright talent. However, are there any talented youngsters currently breaking into the top flight that we could potentially earmark at this early stage? Andros Townsend is certainly one of these, as he has proven himself to be worth more to Spurs than £30 Million man Erik Lamela in the early part of the season, earning himself his first England call up for the match on Friday. However, even he would be turning 30 as the 2022 tournament kicked off. Perhaps the best thing to is to look at the younger age-groups in English national football. Looking at the U-21s and U-19s, I have produced perhaps 7 names that may be of England fans for the future, that will all be towards the peak of their careers come 2022.

                           Southampton's James Ward-Prowse, a product of the Saints' excellent youth system, is only 18, and has already been playing semi-regular football in the Premier League. With a handful of appearances this season already, I see no reason why the youngster cannot kick on and challenge for an England place in the near future. Ravel Morrison, once of Manchester United, and now plying his trade for West Ham is another. A name that recently has been hyped up, and one that Sir Alex Ferguson even tipped for stardom. At 20, he has perhaps taken a little while longer to develop than initially expected, but if he maintains the form that he has shown at the beginning of this season, I see no reason why the central midfielder couldn't push Jack Wilshere all the way for a starting place in Qatar. The same applies to Wilfried Zaha. The recent Manchester United signing burst onto the international scene earlier this year, with a single cap to his name. He has perhaps become another casualty of the 'bigger club', where competition for places stunts the growth of young talents. Nevertheless, he still has plenty of time to prove himself, and oust Theo Walcott from his position. He will be competing with two more exciting wingers, however. Liverpool's Raheem Sterling, who had such a fantastic season for the Merseyside club last year, and Norwich's Nathan Redmond, who looks every inch a great winger this season, will also be vying for starting places. Ross Barkley ends the wealth of talented midfielders that England are cultivating, as the 19 year-old Evertonian has shown just how good a player he is over the last two seasons at Goodison Park, and I would not be surprised to see him get a cap in the near future. Finally, up-front, West Brom's Saido Berahino looks a positive prospect. Having scored a stunning finish at Old Trafford, the youngster has been scoring bagfuls in the League Cup, and he could be another to make the jump to international level. I have purposefully left out Adnan Januzaj, as I personally do not believe that the United winger should choose to represent England, having lived elsewhere and formed bonds with another country for the majority of his life.

                            As we can see, midfield seems to be an area that England have covered for the Qatar World Cup. Up-front, Saido Berahino can add to the likes of Daniel Sturridge, Danny Welbeck and even Andy Carroll, if he forces his way back into the fold. However, based purely on Premier League youngsters, the squad is perilously thin on goalkeepers and defenders. Can promising players from the lower leagues solve this?

                            Quite simply, no. There are perhaps only four names of players plying their trades in the Championship or below that may make it into the England squad any time in the near future. Though he technically is owned by Stoke, Jack Butland has played the vast majority of his career at Championship level, currently playing for Barnsley. He is an excellent goalkeeper, but one that has not quite reached his true potential as yet. The same could not be said for Tom Ince. The 21-year-old is lighting up the Championship at the minute, and has already been the subject of a bid from Liverpool. I fully expect to see him in and around the England squad within the next few years. Similarly, Will Hughes is another exceptional prospect. The 18-year-old Derby County man has had to fend off interest from the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea to keep playing regular football, and I suspect that he is a real talent for the future. The final name is Danny Ings. Though not consistent enough to really merit significant hype, the Burnley man has had his best season so far, scoring goals for fun in England's second tier. It will be the step up to the Premier League that decides whether he will be international class, or if he will go the same way as David Nugent.

                             From this analysis, it looks as though the lower leagues actually have a smaller role to play in the shaping of English talent than the Premier League. This would be a concern if it were true, but I think it is not. If we look at many of the names that have just been discussed, along with the names that will still be around the England squad in 2022, we see a significant amount of lower league involvement in their progress. Looking at the names in the current squad, Kyle Walker spent time at Sheffield United, Tom Cleverley had spells at Watford and Leicester, both Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Theo Walcott began their careers at Southampton, Danny Welbeck had a brief stay at Preston and Andros Townsend played at 8 different football league clubs! The Football League, then, has contributed to many of our current internationals. But what about those for the future? Have they all come from Premier League youth academies?

                             The future prospects also show signs of Football League involvement. Of those mentioned above, only James Ward-Prowse and Raheem Sterling have been brought up entirely by Premier League clubs, playing only in the top division. Ravel Morrison had a season-long loan at Birmingham,  whilst Nathan Redmond began his career there, leaving only this summer. Saido Berahino spent time on loan at Northampton Town, whilst Ross Barkley also went out on loan to Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday. Wilfried Zaha spent almost the entirety of his fledgling career at Crystal Palace, helping them to the Premier League in 2013. So what role do the lower leagues play in the development of the England squad? The fact that the 'State of the Game' report indicates that the Championship's English players make up 70.5% of the minutes played in the second tier last season, up 7% on 2007/8,  tells us that the Championship is rapidly becoming a cauldron for young, British talent. This is especially true when you consider the amount of loan signings that we can see from Premier League clubs to Football League ones. This means that the Football League, and the Championship in particular, will be a significant contributor to any England side of the future.

                              Can the lower leagues help England win the 2022 World Cup? In my opinion, unless Barnet or someone help discover the new Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo, I doubt it. We need a complete change of our grassroots system, and a much more nurturing attitude to our young English players. The loan system is valuable, but we need plenty of young English players, like Barkley and Wilshere playing regularly in the Premier League. Should we overhaul the system, we can win the 2022 World Cup. However, I feel that we are still some way from an overhaul, and therefore, still some way from ending our near-50 year hoodoo.

England's Future: Should We Prepare For Success?

                        As the Premier League season takes a break for international qualifiers, our attention has turned to the national side. With World Cup 2014 qualifiers this weekend against Moldova and Ukraine, there has been much discussion over what our expectations should be for present and future tournaments. English football in recent years has, in general, been burdened with a ridiculously heightened set of expectations. Every pre-tournament begins with a select group of fans insisting that 'this will be our year'. And it never has been.

                        The subject has reared its head once again with the new FA Chairman Greg Dyke making his first official speech in his new capacity. Having been appointed as David Bernstein's successor in March, beginning his new role in July, the 66 year old has been making headlines in recent days. Yesterday, the news broke that Dyke expects England to be capable of reaching the Euro 2020 semi finals, and then potentially win the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. In this post, I will be examining just how realistic this statement is, and giving my opinions on England's chances over the next decade or so.

                          A good place to start when examining this statement is to look at England's historical performances in tournaments. If Dyke's comments are to be believed, then an upward trend, no matter how small, should be expected in order to see a progression towards the later stages of competitions. This would give evidence for such optimism. I will go back to my earliest memories of England, to see if we have progressed since the mid-90s. Euro 96' was obviously a massive competition for the nation, as it was the first time since 1966 that England had hosted an international tournament. With the home crowd urging their side on, England progressed to the semi finals of a major tournament. There they faced the pre-tournament favourites Germany, and after 120 minutes the two could not be separated. In a repeat of the famous 1990 World Cup semi, England were to lose on penalties, with Gareth Southgate the man to shoulder the responsibility. This penalty shootout would start an alarming pattern of spot-kick exits. In 1998, England made the short journey to France for the World Cup. After getting through the groups, they met Argentina in the knock-out round. This game will best be remembered for the emergence of Michael Owen, who at 18 scored a wondergoal, and then the dismissal of David Beckham, for a retaliatory kick on Diego Simeone. These events would lead to another penalty shootout, with David Batty the unfortunate individual this time around.

                            In 2000, England were placed in a 'Group of Death' with Germany, Portugal and Romania. Having lost their opening game by the narrowest of margins to the Portuguese, the English gained revenge over their great rivals Germany, meaning a final game showdown with the Romanians. There, despite leading 2-1 at half time, England let that slip, eventually losing 3-2 to exit the tournament at the group stage. The Japan/South Korea World Cup of 2002 saw the English once again placed in the toughest group, with Sweden, Nigeria and Argentina their opponents. After drawing their opening game, the English claimed revenge for their 1998 defeat to Argentina, with Beckham redeeming himself with the winning goal from the spot. Another draw with Nigeria saw the English scrape through in second place, where they met Denmark. There they cruised through, winning 3-0 to face Brazil in the quarter final. With many saying that the winner would come from this match, England raced into a lead, with Owen opening the scoring mid-way through the half. But once again they conspired to lose, with goals from Rivaldo and a freak free-kick from Ronaldinho knocking the English out. Euro 2004 saw the return of the penalty kick exit. After progressing through the groups relatively easily, England faced hosts Portugal in the quarters. After taking the lead, the English lost prodigy Wayne Rooney to a broken metatarsal, before Portugal fought back to take the match to penalties. There, misses from Darius Vassell and, most spectacularly, from David Beckham condemned England to another exit.

                               Germany hosted the 2006 World Cup, and after a comfortable journey through the group, England edged past Ecuador thanks to a Beckham free-kick. The quarter-finals saw the English up against Portugal, and after a controversial red card to Rooney, with Cristiano Ronaldo the villain, England once again exited on penalties. After misses from Lampard, Gerrard and Carragher, it was over to Ronaldo to deal the final blow. Two years later, after a dismal campaign under manager Steve McLaren, England lost 3-2 to Croatia in their final qualifying game to deny them a place in Austria-Switzerland. Fabio Capello's England managed to qualify for South Africa 2010 without losing, but they struggled to get out of the easiest group in the competition. After dismal draws against the USA and Algeria, they laboured to a 1-0 win against Slovenia. The knockout round saw them face the Germans, where they were destroyed 4-1. Most recently, last summer saw the English side travel to Poland-Ukraine, where after cruising through the group, they met a strong Italian outfit in the quarters. After 120 minutes of stalemate, it was once again down to the lottery of a penalty shootout. There, misses from Young and Cole sent England packing. In none of the last seven tournaments have England progressed past the quarter finals. Rather than the upward trend that would support the claims, it has been almost the exact opposite, so Dyke's comments that he expects England to win the 2022 World Cup seem completely against historical evidence.

                                   But maybe I am being pessimistic on our young and upcoming players. Perhaps we have in our youth ranks the next Lionel Messi, who will lead England to stardom and success. If these prospects are what Dyke is basing his claims on, it is therefore worth looking at England's up and coming talent. If we discard those players that are over the 30 year old mark, England's next team will roughly consist of: Hart, Baines, Jones, Cahill, Walker, Wilshere, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cleverley, Welbeck, Rooney. Whilst an above average team, I would not consider this side capable of winning major international honours, especially when compared with the Spanish and the Brazilians. In terms of the youth prospects, players like Ross Barkley and Nathan Redmond have started this new season well, but they are hardly likely to push England to the international victory that is being suggested. The longer-term future prospects are not much better either, as the grassroots game has all too often been criticised for not bringing the players through. Dyke's argument seems to assume that we are now at as good if not a better position than the 'Golden Era' of 2002-2006. This is backed up by his recent comments that an English World Cup win in 2014 is 'unlikely'. The very fact that we are thinking about it seems deluded, as we do not have the history or the squad to support these claims.

                                       The final reason why I believe Dyke's claim of England's chances of victory in 2022 is ridiculous is a simple one: it takes place in Qatar. There has already been a great deal of controversy over whether a summer World Cup in the Middle East country is possible, with temperatures of up to 50C expected. It is no coincidence that England tend to do badly in countries with a high temperature. South Africa 2010 is a good example of this, and I expect to see another example next summer. Sides that are used to the Middle Eastern climate will benefit from the 2022 World Cup, unless the switch to a winter World Cup occurs. I disagree with the idea, but it would level the playing field somewhat. The climate alone would ordinarily be enough to leave England at a disadvantage, and I suspect that that is what we will see in 2022.

                                          So how can we rectify this situation? I think we have to start from square one, go right back to basics and make revolutionary changes to the grassroots of our game. Having considerable experience of youth football, having been a player, and later, a referee, I know all too well the problems that young players face. Even from a very young age, technical ability and training is bred out of players, replaced by the desire to win at all costs. This leaves current players with an exceptionally bad attitude, to both referees and managers, and lacking in the technical ability to move to the next level. This is not aided by the way that I have observed families behave on the touchlines of matches. In my refereeing days, I genuinely enjoyed the matches, and the kids in general were well-behaved. You at times got the odd one that would mouth off, but the majority were respectful. The parents, on the other hand, were disgraceful. The abuse and language that I as the referee, the opposing players, and even their own children would recieve was horrendous, and it made me despair of parenting in this country. It is not difficult to see how players pick up those disrespectful habits, and this, coupled with the lack of training, is precisely why English players are not as successful. For those who complain that we do not see enough English transfers, this is simply because we want to be the best league in the world, and those who blame this on the national side's failure start the blaming process too late in the players' development.

                                              I think we have to adopt a much more Spanish or German approach, with the emphasis on training and nurturing, rather than the victory-based emphasis on resentment and anger that currently exists. We have to do this from the very earliest age, with any talent encouraged and technique valued over victory. Parents forget that their children are not fighting for £50,000 a week and 3 points in the Premier League, and they need to calm down. I would happily hand out lifetime bans for misbehaviour at football grounds and school fields. That may appear harsh, but some of what I have witnessed and been subjected to from parents is astonishing and disgusting, and I would never want any referee (bear in mind I was only 14 at the time) going through that. We see this happen all too often in the Premier League (the Respect campaign is, in my opinion, a joke), and children and parents are inevitably going to continue this. Stamping it out, like we have seen with racism, is the only way we are going to improve.

                                               As for the English game and their chances, I think that Dyke appears to be one of those England supporters that goes into every tournament with a sense of optimism about England's chances. I, for one would like to hear some refreshing honesty from the upper echelons of the FA for once. Saying things like 'we should expect to win the World Cup in 2022' is at best laughable, as I see no reason why the slump we have become so accustomed to will not continue. It is perhaps best to accept that England as a footballing nation are no better than a quarter final place at major tournaments. That way we won't have to feel the disappointment and anger at our players when we lose on penalties to Portugal. Without an overhaul of our mentality at the grassroots level, both in terms of training and anger management, I fail to see England winning anything for a long time.