Bitesize Rants #3: Rival Relegation

I felt it was strange that the cheers on Wearside were louder for Newcastle’s demise than the fact that they had managed to secure survival.

As a Manchester City fan for as long as I can remember, I can certainly admit to a bit of schaedenfreude when it comes to the team from Salford – I have certainly enjoyed them being knocked off their pedestal over the last five years or so as the blues have made their meteoric rise.

This feeling of satisfaction comes from a generation of oppression and domination by the red half of the city. My memories of the competition between the two growing up was interspersed between regular relegations for my side, and when they did take to the pitch together, all too often there was only going to be one outcome. Needless to say, it made my school days at times difficult as I tried to defend myself from the merciless mickey-taking!

However, as City have embarked on a revolutionary journey in recent years, the balance has shifted, and until recently, had been on an eight match winning streak against United. In the most recent games between the pair, they have established an extremely healthy competition, with both trading victories and creating interesting and balanced matches. As a result, while I’d never actively wish success on them, I think I’d miss the competition and local intrigue created if they were relegated.

That’s why I don’t understand it in the rivalry between Newcastle and Sunderland. Having lived in the North East for three years, I experienced the strength of feeling between the two cities, and the rivalry on the pitch. However, unlike the city of Manchester derby, there has been no one side that has historically dominated in their rivalry, never mind English football, and therefore fans cannot point to years of humiliation and oppression for their reason behind wishing the other was relegated.

In my eyes, no derby means less excitement for the rest of the season, so while Sunderland fans can celebrate the relegation of the Magpies for the moment, I’m sure even the most hardcore of fans will find next year more boring as a result.

Stranger Than Fiction? Ten Life Lessons From This Season

As followers of my blog will have noticed, I have been more than a little absent over the last 12 to 18 months. There are a number of reasons for this, but during this time, I have learnt a lot about myself, the world and some of the people in it. As a result, I thought I'd share some of my revelations over the past year or so. However, as I don't run a lifestyle blog, the only way I could make it relevant is by applying principles I have seen in this season's Premier League.

So, here are my 10 (loosely related) life lessons from this season:

1. Things don't always turn out as you expect

If this isn't backed up by goings on in this season's Premier League, I don't know what is. Ahead of the start of the the season, it was expected to be business as usual for the Premier League. Chelsea, such dominant champions just a few short months ago, were odds on favourites to retain their title with the seemingly unflappable and unbeatable Jose Mourinho at the helm. Similarly, Manchester City were looking resurgent, with nearly £200m spent in the summer window on the likes of De Bruyne and Sterling.

However, nine months on, and it is neither of these giants, nor Arsenal, Tottenham or Manchester United proudly atop the Premier League, but little old Leicester City. The fact that this was 5,000 to 1 at the start of the season (higher odds than the Loch Ness Monster being discovered!) demonstrates the point above, creating a fairytale story for the men from the Midlands.

2. It can be easy to get caught in a negative spiral

If you're anything like me, you'll identify with this one. It doesn't matter how well things seem to be going, you're always able to conspire to ruin it. As I outlined in a recent post on my motivation for my London Marathon run, I've done this to significant cost in my personal life, and has led me to a situation I never thought I'd find myself in.

In footballing terms, there is no doubt that this applies perfectly to Crystal Palace this season. Having started so well, with the likes of Yohan Cabaye and Bakary Sako in strong goalscoring form, they looked on course to challenge for at least their best Premier League finish ever. However, after a second half of the season to forget, they found themselves scrambling against relegation in the last few weeks of the season. Getting out of that cycle is difficult, and can often seem impossible at times.

3. Money doesn't always solve the problem

I've discovered this one more recently - I've never had much spare money, so I can't honestly say that this has been an issue for me in the past. However, over the last 18 months, I'm not ashamed to say that I've attempted (unsuccessfully) to make certain things in my life better using money. Safe to say, I've learnt that money can't buy you happiness - finding that seems far more difficult!

This is certainly something that has parallels in Premier League football. In particular, Manchester City's defensive issues were something that they have increasingly thrown money at in recent years, with over £100m spent since 2010 on a succession of centre backs - Joleon Lescott, Kolo Toure, Jerome Boating, Stefan Savic, Matija Nastasic, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala and most recently Nicolas Otamendi. Has their defensive record got any better? Not if this season is anything to go by!

4. People can surprise you (and not always in a good way!)

From a personal perspective, there is nothing unusual about this point. My last couple of years have been filled with examples of people that have surprised me with their understanding or interest. However, even those you feel you know well can surprise you - and sometimes you end up on the wrong side. I've also found myself in situations where I didn't know which way was up, with certainly no idea about where I stood.

Again, in a season full of shocks, there have been individuals that have stood out from the crowd, and I'm going to be a bit more controversial here. For me, the epitome of a positive surprise from a player has been the performances of either N'Golo Kante or Riyad Mahrez, both who have consistently shone, either through hard work or moments of magic.

However, despite all the plaudits received, I'd argue that a player that has surprised both in a good and bad way is Jamie Vardy. For all of his goalscoring heroics, for every bit of industry and every yard won for his side, just one event comes to my mind. As I said to my family on the day that he broke the consecutive goals record earlier in the season - 'it's amazing how scoring in 11 straight matches will make people forget you're a racist.' Great message for the kids, that. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what you say in casinos or whether you act like a first class chav, as long as you can kick a ball, it's all ok.

5. Hope can be the worst human emotion

During the last year or so, one phrase has stuck with me. I can't remember who it was that said it, in case anyone thinks I'm trying to plagiarise, but it certainly appears apt to me. It is, quite simply, 'without hope, there can be no true despair'. No matter how painful the initial event is, it is made that much worse by hoping unsuccessfully for something better, or for things to be fixed, particularly if you are given continued hope that this may be possible.

Now, as well as this applies to my personal life over the last 12 months, it also applies just as well to the history of my club, Manchester City. Though admittedly less so recently, I grew up in a time when City flattered to deceive, and would always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I have therefore become accustomed to hoping for much and receiving little, and to be perfectly honest, I'm confident that it's made me the realist I am today! In fact, I'm still waiting for them to screw the current situation up - I'm convinced it's just an extremely long con!

6. Don't just let yourself get battered

My belief that is order to be truly happy, you have to let yourself be vulnerable and open. However, this does leave you open to being hurt - and badly. Take a boxing match, for example. You put a guard up and let someone tee off on you. Hurts, doesn't it? However, lower your guard and do the same thing. Tell me how you feel when you wake up attached to an IV. In that situation, it is all too easy to allow yourself to become the victim, and be battered and bruised. And I'm no expert in this, but somehow, you need to keep picking yourself up off the canvas and moving forward until someone physically stops you.

In footballing terms, that best applies to Aston Villa this season - and by that I mean they have dropped their hands and been smashed repeatedly. Their seeming disregard for both the shirt and their fans has led to one of the worst seasons in Premier League history, and run-ins for the likes of Joleon Lescott and Gabby Agbonlahor with the club hierarchy and fans. Such has been the disintigration of the once great club, that the board members that were brought in to restructure it and make it prepared for life in the Championship gave it up. Not exactly a promising sign is it?

7. Rebuilding things takes time, and you need to be patient

Now this is a difficult one, especially if you're like me. I'm extremely impatient when it comes to wanting results, which is why my love-hate relationship with the gym is a little more hate than it is for most normal people. Whether you've suffered a set-back, had your confidence destroyed or your world rocked, it's perfectly normal for things to take a long time to heal and get better. The trick is to give yourself that time - easier said than done, I admit.

Message to all Liverpool (and to a lesser extent cockneys, I mean, Man United fans) this footballing metaphor applies to you! As much as you go on about history, it really means nothing when it comes to the current day, and time to face facts, your teams aren't as good as they once were. Stop treating managers by frankly unrealistic standards, and support your team. Instead of complaining about Brendan Rodgers or Louis van Gaal, you need to accept that you're going through a difficult transition period, and things will take time. Be patient.

8. Sometimes you have to rely on others (results)

Ok, so the grammar isn't great, but you get what I'm saying! This kind of links to number five, but this is a bit harder. Where others can surprise you, having the ability to talk to and rely on others is a whole new level of trust, and one that I can certainly admit to some trouble with.

As the headline suggests, this one was custom made to fit to the footballing metaphor. With a week of football left in the season, we saw a rollercoaster ride for the final Champions League spot between the two Manchester clubs. After City's 2-2 draw with Arsenal on the Sunday, United had all the momentum, just two points behind City with a game in hand. However, a 3-2 defeat by West Ham in the Hammers final game at the Boleyn Ground saw the ball put back into City's court for the final day. Despite a bit of drama at Old Trafford, with a suspect package discovered at the Stretford End, City did their usual trick (the minimum required!) to finish with a spot in the Champions League for next season.

9. Momentum can be powerful, and take things one step at a time

Once you turn a corner, you can rely on a powerful force: momentum. When you've proven that you can do something, it makes it that much easier to continue to do it. Even in the darkest moments, the little things become important, and gives you a platform to continue onwards. In these moments, I have learnt it is incredibly important to try and isolate individual tasks and defeat them as they arise. Again, as I mentioned earlier, my lack of patience holds me back here, and there have been more than a few times where I have wanted to give up (and have come pretty close) in the past 18 months, but a combination of things have kept me going, of which momentum is certainly one.

Here, Leicester again play a key role. For every doubter and every nay-sayer, it only required the group of player and their manager to come out and say 'we're not thinking about the title, we've only got eyes for [insert team name here] next week.' And lo and behold, that following week all too often resulted in a favourable scoreline for the Foxes. While this explanation may undermine some of the exceptional individual performances throughout the season, there can be no doubt that momentum inevitably plays a considerable role in any championship season, none more so than the one seen by Leicester this week.

10. You can achieve more than you thought possible if you push yourself

This has been the biggest thing I have discovered over the past 12 months, without a shadow of a doubt. It doesn't matter how badly you're hurt, or how strong the urge is to give up, you can still surprise yourself. After a tough two years, I'm still not OK, or anything close, but I have a few things I can point to that I can be proud of. Take just a few weeks ago as a prime example - after six months of training, and a lot of willpower, I ran the 2016 London Marathon in 4hr 34 minutes. Something I'd never have been capable of or willing to do at any other time in my life, but I set myself a goal and achieved it.

As with so many of these points, Leicester's approach to the disbelief of the world highlights this from a Premier League perspective, and demonstrates the strength of each of the players involved. However, where their goal can be firmly set on retaining their hard-fought title, I am now looking for my next challenge, safe in the knowledge that more is possible than I imagined.

So if you've had a hard time recently, or are looking to set yourself a few targets, I guess what I'm saying is watch the football - there are enough lessons to be learnt about yourself to keep you going for a while!

Chelsea: How The Mighty Have Fallen

The worst title defence in the history of the Premier League. After yesterday's defeat at home to Liverpool, Chelsea have registered an embarrassing return of just 11 points after eleven first team matches, with just three wins, six defeats and 22 goals conceded. To put it in perspective, this is almost identical to the disastrous defence of Blackburn Rovers following their one and only title in 1995, and is six points worse than the ill-fated attempt by David Moyes after the Sir Alex Ferguson era at Manchester United.

What makes this current title defence most surprising is that this has not come after a shock title win or change in management. In fact, next to nothing has changed. The side that claimed the league just a few short months ago is now floundering just above the relegation zone, and it's not like they can blame injuries either. Though they have missed Thibaut Courtois for the majority of the season so far, the eleven that were so successful in the last season remain largely ever-present.

What it simply comes down to is the fact that many of the top players from last year have struggled to hit the heights that they achieved in that title winning side. If we take the lynchpins of that side, namely John Terry, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, we can clearly see in each case, the statistics are no longer in their favour when compared to many of their rivals.

Take the stoic centre half. A Chelsea legend that has taken his side through tough times seemingly single-handedly in the past, and has been a consistent performer and rock for Jose Mourinho in both his spells at the club. Last year was widely considered the Englishman's best season for some time, with the centre back's organisation enabling the team to keep 17 clean sheets, at a ratio of almost one every two games. He also scored five goals from 18 shots - the second best return of his career. In comparison, in the first 11 games of this season, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet, with Terry yet to open his personal account. He has also come under considerable criticism, being sent off at West Brom and dropped to the bench for the crunch game with Manchester City.

Similarly, Eden Hazard has struggled to make the impact he had last season. Having comprehensively won the Barclays Premier League Player of the Year Award last year, he has been almost anonymous this season. Though his chances created statistics and assists are not bad when compared to last season (29 chances created in 11 games this season/ 99 created in total last year), he does not seem to quote have the same aura around him that saw him glide past players like they weren't even there. His substitution against Liverpool yesterday came as no surprise, as up until that point I don't think I had heard his name uttered by the commentary team.

The difference between statistics for both Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa is even more stark. The power pair last year were a contributing factor to a huge percentage of Chelsea goals last year, with Fabregas hailed as a pass master for his 18 assists and Costa ranked among the top strikers in the world scoring 20 goals. How times have changed. This season, Fabregas has set up just one goal, while Costa is a tenth of the way to last year's goals total, with almost a third of the season gone.

It's certainly no secret that this has had a dramatic impact on the pressure on the shoulders of Jose Mourinho. And we have already seen how he tends to overhype. In a post last year, I looked at Jose's growing vendetta with both the English media and Premier League referees, and suggested that perhaps this was simply another of the Portuguese manager's mind-games. However, having seen the ongoing behaviour and anger of the Chelsea man, I'm not quite so sure he's as in-control as he appeared last year. He is clearly feeling the pressure, and would rather apportion blame everywhere but with himself, and referees are certainly an easy target.

One thing I still can't wrap my brain around is why. How is it that so many of not just Chelsea's top men, but the supporting cast like Matic, Ivanovic, Oscar and Azpilicueta, all of whom were outstanding in the title win, can perform so poorly all at the same time. An off game or two is to be expected, but it's getting on towards the halfway point, and I honestly cannot remember a game where Chelsea have looked like themselves.

The first explanation that I have read is from Fabio Capello. The former England and Real Madrid coach laid the accusation that Jose Mourinho's style of management burns players out, keeping them at optimal levels for a season or 18 months, but then sees performances fall off a cliff. While that would accurately explain the Portuguese's experience on this occasion, in addition to his times at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, it would not cover the initial period spent in London. Successive titles, the second more emphatic than the first, would certainly call the theory into question. Further, the individuals at the heart of that Chelsea title success remained effective for the club for years to come - look at Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba.

In addition, there have been a lot of talks in the papers recently about rifts in the dressing room. Now, while I'm willing to take such accusations with a pinch of salt, there is normally no smoke without fire, and it does appear during the games like many of the players aren't on the same wavelength. How much of that is just the players trying to force the issue, and how much is a genuine discord is difficult to say, but it is certainly a theory that cannot be ruled out.

My analysis of this adds a rather ironic twist. Jose Mourinho's attitude that the world is against him, blaming referees, the media and even his own doctors for his shortcomings may well have been a mind-game, but has now fostered an environment at Chelsea that is incredibly demoralising. Believing that people are against you can have a dramatic impact on confidence and motivation, and could certainly explain the ongoing issues. Further to this, the treatment of Eva Carneiro will undoubtedly have underlined the dictatorial regime currently in operation at the London club, and will inevitably have players and staff looking nervously over their shoulders. This tends to result in people taking fewer risks, playing it safe and therefore not achieving their potential - sound familiar?

While Jose Mourinho has been given the green light by Roman Abramovic, it is slowly but surely moving to a shade of amber. Based on the last three months, he needs to grow up, accept that bad luck and bad decisions happen, and get on with motivating his players and stop attempting to control the actions of officials. Who does he think he is, Sir Alex Ferguson?

However, Chelsea have more than enough quality to get themselves out of their current predicament, and it was fitting that it was Jurgen Klopp, who experienced the exact same thing with Dortmund last year, who visited Stamford Bridge yesterday. I'm going for a sixth place finish now for Chelsea, but they need to seriously rethink their approach and pull together to achieve even that.

Blue Move: They Won't Be Standing Alone

I'm getting the distinct feeling that success for Manchester City is cyclical at present, rather than consistent. Despite the positive stat of two titles in three seasons, the fact remains that each of their title defences have been woeful. And arguably, the situation that the side finds themselves in is worse than that under Roberto Mancini just two years ago, which ultimately saw the deposition of the Italian. Whereas Mancini finished second (albeit a distant second) to Manchester United in 2012/2013, and reached an FA Cup final (losing to Wigan), Manuel Pellegrini has struggled, slipping into a battle for Champions League qualification, while exiting both cup competitions early.

As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?

I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.

Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free

Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m

Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m

Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m

Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m

Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m

Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m

Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m

Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m

Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m

Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m

John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m

Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free

Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m

Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.

So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.

The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.

With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?

Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.

Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.

There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.

However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.

Strikers

With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.

Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?

Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m

Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero

I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.

The FA's Response: Changing Attitudes?

It's almost like the FA read my last blog post on England. As I made my recommendation to start blooding the younger generation of English players, in order to maintain a more consistent approach in the future, the English governing body made its point. Greg Dyke, who has been a strong proponent of introducing further English quotas, has outlined his plan for the future of not only the Premier League, but the English national side.

If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.

So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:

Club	Players	Home grown (%)
Arsenal	8/23	35%
Aston Villa	16/25	64%
Burnley	18/24	75%
Chelsea	3/20	15%
Crystal Palace	15/25	60%
Everton	8/25	32%
Hull City	13/25	52%
Leicester City	17/24	71%
Liverpool	9/19	47%
Manchester City	8/24	33%
Manchester United	12/24	50%
Newcastle United	9/25	36%
Queens Park Rangers	19/25	76%
Southampton	9/20	45%
Stoke City	12/25	48%
Sunderland	12/21	57%
Swansea City	12/25	48%
Tottenham Hotspur	6/23	26%
West Bromwich Albion	10/23	43%
West Ham United	14/24	58%
Total	230/469	49%

Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.

There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?

With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?

So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:

Club	Players	Home grown (%)
Arsenal	16/22	73%
Aston Villa	13/18	72%
Burnley	17/27	62%
Chelsea	20/27	74%
Crystal Palace	17/17	100%
Everton	22/29	76%
Hull City	32/33	97%
Leicester City	15/21	71%
Liverpool	9/16	56%
Manchester City	14/29	48%
Manchester United	24/28	86%
Newcastle United	26/34	76%
Queens Park Rangers	7/14	50%
Southampton	15/19	79%
Stoke City	14/20	70%
Sunderland	22/30	73%
Swansea City	24/30	80%
Tottenham Hotspur	16/22	73%
West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United	16/24	67%
Total	339/438	77%

With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.

Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?

However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.

Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.

But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!

Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.

This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?

In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.

The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.

The Premier League and Europe: A Subconscious Uncoupling?

And so, a devastating fortnight for English clubs in Europe draws to a close. For the second time in three years, we have no representative in the Champions League beyond the last 16. Even more worryingly, it's the fourth time in five seasons that no English side has made it to the quarters of the Europa League. And never before have both happened in conjunction. So what has gone wrong? How has a league extolled for its pace and power, ranked as one of the top two leagues in the world, deteriorated when it comes to the European competitions?

However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.

Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.

So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?

The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.

What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?

The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool,  both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?

Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.

Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.

In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.

In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.

The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.

English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.

One Man Team: How Much Of A Miss Was Aguero?

We all remember these words: 'Balotelli... Aguerooooooooooooo!' Martin Tyler's commentary of the famous final day of the 2011/2012 season has been immortalised over the last few years, but it's the goalscorer who wrote himself into City folklore. Since joining from Atletico Madrid for a club record £38m in July 2011, Aguero has been an integral cog in the City machine. The record Premier League goalscorer, eclipsing his countryman Carlos Tevez, Aguero has scored an impressive 69 goals in 110 City games.

As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.

This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?

Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.

But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.

On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?

Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.

While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.

But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:

Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)

As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?

Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.