PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Arsenal

Following arguably the most surprising Premier League season in the history of the competition, I thought I'd test my predictive powers on the upcoming year. In this series, I will profile the clubs involved in this season, covering the big summer changes, expected tactics, and recent performance, before making a judgement on the team as a whole.

I'll start my roundup with Arsenal.

Last season
Despite the club achieving its highest finish for more than a decade, securing the 2nd spot on the final day by pipping local rivals Tottenham, last season still goes down as a disappointment for Arsene Wenger's men, finishing 10 points behind champions Leicester. With their main title rivals all failing to maintain any consistency, it was seen as Arsenal's biggest chance to win their first championship since 2004. Throw in disappointing exits to both the FA Cup and Champions League, and there were once again calls for the head of the manager.

Backroom changes
Despite the pressure being put on him, Wenger has endured to start his 21st season at the helm of the Gunners. In line with that, there have not been all that many changes at the Emirates off the pitch, with the only news to emerge from the club that legend Thierry Henry would leave his role as under-18s coach to focus on his punditry career.

Pre-season
Just the four fixtures for the Arsenal squad to warm themselves up, with the planned fixture against French side Lens abandoned due to the terrorist atrocities seen. Of the matches played, the Gunners saw a narrow 2-1 win over the MLS All-Stars, with youngster Chuba Akpom adding to a Joel Campbell goal late on.

The Gunners have maintained a strong momentum heading into the Premier League, with convincing wins over Guadalajara, Viking and, most impressively, Manchester City, with the latter a 3-2 thriller in Gothenburg.

Squad and Signings
With stupid sums of money flying around this summer, it came as no surprise to anyone that Wenger announced he would not be spending large amounts on transfers this summer, with the £35m signing of Swiss international Granit Xhaka expected to be the most expensive move. In addition to this headline signing, Arsenal have added youngsters Takuma Asano and Rob Holding from Hiroshima Sanfrecce and Bolton Wanderers respectively.

However, their largest exploits have yet to come off, with approaches for both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez being given the cold shoulder by the individuals.

In terms of exits, Arsenal fans will be pleased that there have been no significant departures, with the releases of ageing stars Mathieu Flamini, Mikel Arteta and Tomas Rosicky the most high profile, as well as a few loans.

Tactics
Exactly the same as it has been the last 20 seasons, namely, quick pass and move football on a slick surface. With Olivier Giroud still the main striker, expect to see some long balls for the Frenchman to hold up when the team is under pressure.

Prediction
While pundits like Martin Keown and Ian Wright will once again proclaim that 'this just feels like Arsenal's year', I just don't see it. The fact that they feel unable to keep up financially with their rivals tells you that they are not in the same fight. For me, it seems set to be another North London competition, but this time for a place in the Champions League rather than the title. As they have done so often in the past, it's a battle I see the Gunners winning.

Final position: 4th

Arsenal: Arsene Delivers Europe Under Pressure

2012/2013 Season Review:

Despite losing their talismanic striker Robin van Persie to rivals Manchester United at the start of the campaign, Arsenal had a very positive start to the league season, not conceding in their opening 3 games. This led people to believe that they, with the help of new defensive coach Steve Bould, had turned a corner defensively. Unfortunately, as has so often been the case for Arsenal in recent years, they had a sudden and dramatic dip in form. Between mid-October to early December, apart from an emphatic victory at home to their great rivals Tottenham, Arsenal were regularly performing below expectations, culminating in a dire performance in a defeat on penalties to League 2’s Bradford City in the Capital One Cup.

Having been taken out of the title race altogether by the turn of the year, and having suffered a humiliating cup defeat to a side three divisions below them, Arsene Wenger’s position at the football club began to be called into question. Despite this, from the turn of the year, Arsenal’s form began to improve gradually, progressing to the FA Cup Fifth Round and the Champions League Round of 16, and beginning to get back into the hunt for a top 4 spot in the League. However, a treble of results in February and early March gave a hammer blow to two of those aspirations, and put a severe dent in the third. Firstly, Arsenal suffered a shock defeat at home to Blackburn Rovers in the FA Cup, with a mishit Colin Kazim-Richards shot condemning Arsene Wenger to his first exit in the FA Cup to a team outside of the Premier League. Just 3 days later, in form Bayern Munich came to town in the Champions League, and gave Arsenal a footballing lesson on their own ground. The match finished only 1-3, but it could have been so many more. Then, to cap a miserable fortnight, Arsenal lost to Tottenham in the reverse fixture in the League, in a game vital in the race for the final Champions League space.

After three woeful performances, Arsenal seemed to respond well, and were incredibly unlucky to miss out on the Champions League Quarter Finals, after an enthralling 2-0 win on the night in Munich. Unfortunately, away goals dumped Arsenal out of the competition, leaving them without any possibility of a trophy for the 8^th year in a row, heaping further pressure upon Arsene Wenger to deliver Champions League football the following season. Knowing that this was their final goal, Arsenal responded magnificently, going on an impressive run of 10 games unbeaten after the defeat at White Hart Lane. A nervy final day over the final Champions League place ensued, with Arsenal knowing that a win over Newcastle would be sufficient to hand Wenger his 16^th consecutive year of Champions League football. Win they did, but only just, with a narrow 1-0 victory to keep Arsenal fans on the edge of their seats.

Overall, a typical season for Arsenal based on the last 5 years or so, uncompetitive as far as trophies go, but consistent enough in the League to qualify for Europe. Whether fans will accept this role for much longer, having been used to the ‘Invincibles’ steamrollering the competition, remains to be seen. Arsene Wenger deserves at least another year in the job, but I certainly understand the fans dissatisfaction at seeing their team below where they think they deserve.

 

Player of the Season: Santi Cazorla – the skilful little Spaniard has been an excellent buy for Arsenal this season. Creative, pacy and full of flair, he has created plenty of chances and goals for the Gunners this campaign. Without his injuries, perhaps Jack Wilshere would have been competing for this award, however.

 

Game of the Season: Reading 5-7 Arsenal, and Arsenal 7-3 Newcastle (joint): Whilst I know Arsenal fans will point to the 5-2 demolition job of Tottenham at the Emirates in November, the two games I remember most this season have to be these. The Capital One Cup game against Reading in late October is a prime example of Arsenal’s turbulence this season. 4-0 up and cruising, Reading conceded a Theo Walcott goal in first half stoppage time. Cue the Arsenal fightback, eventually taking the game into extra time with a hotly debated ‘offside goal’ in second half stoppage time. 5-5 until the closing stages in extra time, before two quick fire Arsenal goals sent their fans into raptures. Equally, the game at home to Newcastle in the league was particularly incredible. 1-0 after 51 minutes, I remember thinking ‘Arsenal will probably end up comfortable 2/3-0 winners’, turning off the TV in the process. How I regret that. An unbelievable second half performance from Arsenal, who utterly destroyed a weary Newcastle.

 

Summer Transfer Targets (Who I Think They Need): For Arsenal, the problem this season has been mostly defensively. Whilst I believe they could possibly do with another striker, although Theo Walcott has performed well since his switch to the centre, most of their transfer targets should revolve around the back four and the goalkeeper. I understand that Arsenal are reluctant to spend big on transfers, and therefore realistic targets could possibly be Ashley Williams from Swansea, or Torino’s Angelo Ogbonna. For goalkeeper, though Rene Adler has apparently distanced himself from a move, QPR’s Julio Cesar or Borussia Monchengladbach’s ter Stegen would be adequate choices.

 

Transfer Gossip Links:

In:

Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, CM), David Villa (Barcelona, ST), Geoffrey Kondogbia (Genoa, CM), Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, ST), Max Gonalons (Lyon, CM), Loic Remy (QPR), Abdelaziz Barrada (Getafe, RM), Miralem Pjanic (Roma, CM), Sven Ullreich (Stuttgart, GK), Ashley Williams (Swansea, CB), Julio Cesar (QPR, GK), Yaya Sanogo (Auxerre, ST)

Out:

Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, ST), Gervinho (Galatasaray, LW), Bakary Sagna (PSG, AS Monaco, RB)