Following arguably the most surprising Premier League season in the history of the competition, I thought I'd test my predictive powers on the upcoming year. In this series, I will profile the clubs involved in this season, covering the big summer changes, expected tactics, and recent performance, before making a judgement on the team as a whole.
I'll start my roundup with Arsenal.
Last season
Despite the club achieving its highest finish for more than a decade, securing the 2nd spot on the final day by pipping local rivals Tottenham, last season still goes down as a disappointment for Arsene Wenger's men, finishing 10 points behind champions Leicester. With their main title rivals all failing to maintain any consistency, it was seen as Arsenal's biggest chance to win their first championship since 2004. Throw in disappointing exits to both the FA Cup and Champions League, and there were once again calls for the head of the manager.
Backroom changes
Despite the pressure being put on him, Wenger has endured to start his 21st season at the helm of the Gunners. In line with that, there have not been all that many changes at the Emirates off the pitch, with the only news to emerge from the club that legend Thierry Henry would leave his role as under-18s coach to focus on his punditry career.
Pre-season
Just the four fixtures for the Arsenal squad to warm themselves up, with the planned fixture against French side Lens abandoned due to the terrorist atrocities seen. Of the matches played, the Gunners saw a narrow 2-1 win over the MLS All-Stars, with youngster Chuba Akpom adding to a Joel Campbell goal late on.
The Gunners have maintained a strong momentum heading into the Premier League, with convincing wins over Guadalajara, Viking and, most impressively, Manchester City, with the latter a 3-2 thriller in Gothenburg.
Squad and Signings
With stupid sums of money flying around this summer, it came as no surprise to anyone that Wenger announced he would not be spending large amounts on transfers this summer, with the £35m signing of Swiss international Granit Xhaka expected to be the most expensive move. In addition to this headline signing, Arsenal have added youngsters Takuma Asano and Rob Holding from Hiroshima Sanfrecce and Bolton Wanderers respectively.
However, their largest exploits have yet to come off, with approaches for both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez being given the cold shoulder by the individuals.
In terms of exits, Arsenal fans will be pleased that there have been no significant departures, with the releases of ageing stars Mathieu Flamini, Mikel Arteta and Tomas Rosicky the most high profile, as well as a few loans.
Tactics
Exactly the same as it has been the last 20 seasons, namely, quick pass and move football on a slick surface. With Olivier Giroud still the main striker, expect to see some long balls for the Frenchman to hold up when the team is under pressure.
Prediction
While pundits like Martin Keown and Ian Wright will once again proclaim that 'this just feels like Arsenal's year', I just don't see it. The fact that they feel unable to keep up financially with their rivals tells you that they are not in the same fight. For me, it seems set to be another North London competition, but this time for a place in the Champions League rather than the title. As they have done so often in the past, it's a battle I see the Gunners winning.
Final position: 4th
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label Arsenal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arsenal. Show all posts
Monday, 8 August 2016
Sunday, 5 July 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: My Predictions
As the footballing merry-go-round begins to kick into gear for another year, English football clubs have never been in as strong a position to spend money. With the new £5bn football rights deal set to take effect from next year, clubs know that their revenues are going to be boosted come next summer. As a result, many can spend without fear of additional UEFA penalties thanks to the controversial Financial Fair Play regulations. With each of last season's top four expected to empty their bank accounts in the coming months, this summer is going to be interesting.
But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.
Arsenal
In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.
Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)
Aston Villa
In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)
Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)
Bournemouth
In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)
Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.
Crystal Palace
In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),
Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.
Chelsea
In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)
Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)
Everton
In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)
Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.
Leicester
In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)
Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.
Liverpool
In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)
Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).
Man City
In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)
Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!
Man Utd
In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)
Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).
Newcastle
In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).
Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.
Norwich
In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)
Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.
Southampton
In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)
Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.
Stoke
In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).
Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.
Sunderland
In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)
Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.
Swansea
In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)
Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.
Tottenham
In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).
Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.
Watford
In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)
Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.
West Brom
In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)
Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.
West Ham
In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)
Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.
Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m
Total Income: £266.3m
Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m
But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.
Arsenal
In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.
Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)
Aston Villa
In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)
Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)
Bournemouth
In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)
Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.
Crystal Palace
In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),
Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.
Chelsea
In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)
Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)
Everton
In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)
Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.
Leicester
In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)
Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.
Liverpool
In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)
Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).
Man City
In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)
Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!
Man Utd
In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)
Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).
Newcastle
In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).
Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.
Norwich
In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)
Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.
Southampton
In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)
Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.
Stoke
In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).
Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.
Sunderland
In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)
Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.
Swansea
In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)
Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.
Tottenham
In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).
Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.
Watford
In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)
Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.
West Brom
In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)
Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.
West Ham
In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)
Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.
Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m
Total Income: £266.3m
Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m
Sunday, 28 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Clash of The Cash (Title Race)
With the fixtures announced on Wednesday, that feeling of anticipation and excitement over the new season grows. The transfer window hasn't even opened yet, and people are already looking at the big derbies (with Aston Villa and West Brom particularly peeved that they didn't make the list) and making their predictions over the winners of the next Premier League title. Over the last couple of years, I've done blog posts looking at the fixtures, and using them to give an initial indication of who should be considered favourites. It's not particularly scientific, but it is interesting.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
Friday, 3 April 2015
The FA's Response: Changing Attitudes?
It's almost like the FA read my last blog post on England. As I made my recommendation to start blooding the younger generation of English players, in order to maintain a more consistent approach in the future, the English governing body made its point. Greg Dyke, who has been a strong proponent of introducing further English quotas, has outlined his plan for the future of not only the Premier League, but the English national side.
If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.
So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:
Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.
There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?
With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?
So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:
With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.
Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?
However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.
Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.
But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!
Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.
This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?
In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.
The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.
If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.
So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:
| Club | Players | Home grown (%) |
| Arsenal | 8/23 | 35% |
| Aston Villa | 16/25 | 64% |
| Burnley | 18/24 | 75% |
| Chelsea | 3/20 | 15% |
| Crystal Palace | 15/25 | 60% |
| Everton | 8/25 | 32% |
| Hull City | 13/25 | 52% |
| Leicester City | 17/24 | 71% |
| Liverpool | 9/19 | 47% |
| Manchester City | 8/24 | 33% |
| Manchester United | 12/24 | 50% |
| Newcastle United | 9/25 | 36% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 19/25 | 76% |
| Southampton | 9/20 | 45% |
| Stoke City | 12/25 | 48% |
| Sunderland | 12/21 | 57% |
| Swansea City | 12/25 | 48% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6/23 | 26% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 10/23 | 43% |
| West Ham United | 14/24 | 58% |
| Total | 230/469 | 49% |
Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.
There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?
With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?
So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:
| Club | Players | Home grown (%) |
| Arsenal | 16/22 | 73% |
| Aston Villa | 13/18 | 72% |
| Burnley | 17/27 | 62% |
| Chelsea | 20/27 | 74% |
| Crystal Palace | 17/17 | 100% |
| Everton | 22/29 | 76% |
| Hull City | 32/33 | 97% |
| Leicester City | 15/21 | 71% |
| Liverpool | 9/16 | 56% |
| Manchester City | 14/29 | 48% |
| Manchester United | 24/28 | 86% |
| Newcastle United | 26/34 | 76% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 7/14 | 50% |
| Southampton | 15/19 | 79% |
| Stoke City | 14/20 | 70% |
| Sunderland | 22/30 | 73% |
| Swansea City | 24/30 | 80% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 16/22 | 73% |
| West Bromwich Albion | ||
| West Ham United | 16/24 | 67% |
| Total | 339/438 | 77% |
With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.
Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?
However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.
Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.
But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!
Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.
This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?
In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.
The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.
Sunday, 22 March 2015
The Premier League and Europe: A Subconscious Uncoupling?
And so, a devastating fortnight for English clubs in Europe draws to a close. For the second time in three years, we have no representative in the Champions League beyond the last 16. Even more worryingly, it's the fourth time in five seasons that no English side has made it to the quarters of the Europa League. And never before have both happened in conjunction. So what has gone wrong? How has a league extolled for its pace and power, ranked as one of the top two leagues in the world, deteriorated when it comes to the European competitions?
However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.
Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.
So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?
The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.
What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?
The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool, both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?
Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.
Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.
In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.
In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.
The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.
English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.
However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.
Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.
So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?
The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.
What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?
The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool, both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?
Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.
Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.
In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.
In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.
The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.
English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.
Saturday, 7 March 2015
One Man Team: How Much Of A Miss Was Aguero?
We all remember these words: 'Balotelli... Aguerooooooooooooo!' Martin Tyler's commentary of the famous final day of the 2011/2012 season has been immortalised over the last few years, but it's the goalscorer who wrote himself into City folklore. Since joining from Atletico Madrid for a club record £38m in July 2011, Aguero has been an integral cog in the City machine. The record Premier League goalscorer, eclipsing his countryman Carlos Tevez, Aguero has scored an impressive 69 goals in 110 City games.
As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.
This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?
Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.
But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.
On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?
Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.
While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.
But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:
Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)
As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?
Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.
As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.
This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?
Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.
But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.
On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?
Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.
While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.
But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:
Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)
As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?
Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.
Tuesday, 6 January 2015
Half Time Report: Who'll Be Shopping In The January Sales?
With the Premier League season in the balance for each of the 20 teams involved, January represents an excellent opportunity for sides to supplement their sides, and maybe find that couple of signings that will enable them to meet, or even surpass, their targets. We have seen teams perform exceptionally well under pressure in January, which can have a dramatic effect on the rest of their seasons. For example, remember Papiss Cisse's 13 goals in 14 games for Newcastle following his £9m move from Freiburg in January 2011, pushing Newcastle to the cusp of the Champions League.
Alternatively, January can also be a month to dread for sides, particularly teams towards the bottom end of the table. With Chairmen often finding it difficult to resist offers for their star men, selling an in-form player can equally have consequences - and not good ones.
With this in mind, who is likely to be making their move in this month-long carnage? And who is likely to be hoping that not much goes on?
Arsenal - YES
As attractive as flair players are, you need a bit of grit at the back to be successful. Despite this being shouted almost every week at Arsene Wenger by the pundits on Match of the Day (and in some cases, his own fans!), Arsenal have yet to sign a top quality defender to go alongside the likes of Sanchez, Cazorla, Ramsey etc going forward. Maybe it's because he couldn't find anyone French, but he has to move quickly in this window to ensure that Arsenal do not lose their top 4 status.
Who would be good? Though not a long term signing, Ron Vlaar may well be an option, however I feel that with Borussia Dortmund currently on such a poor run, there has never been a better time to test their resolve with a bid for either Mats Hummels or Neven Subotic.
Aston Villa - NO
With limited funds, this month may well be all about keeping their key players, rather than extending. The likes of Ron Vlaar and Christian Benteke may once again be targets for the larger teams, so Paul Lambert will do well to retain his current squad. The loss of either of these could be the difference between Premier League football next year, and a trip to the Championship.
Burnley - NO
Like Villa, it will be all about keeping hold of their key men - specifically Danny Ings.
Chelsea - MAYBE
Despite their considerable wealth, I am not expecting to see too much out of Chelsea this January. With Jose Mourinho having spent heavily in the summer to build his own team, I honestly can't think of many positions that he needs to replace. From front to back, they are pretty intimidating as a side, so I think it may be a case of some investment in youth players for the title-chasers.
Crystal Palace - MAYBE
With a new manager in the shape of Alan Pardew, the January transfer window could represent a good opportunity to stamp his authority on his new club. A top quality striker or midfielder may be the way forward, so a cheeky bid for either Danny Ings or Charlie Austin may be on the cards.
Everton - NO
Having forked out £28m on Romelu Lukaku in the summer, and with a chairman notoriously shy on splashing the cash, it is unlikely that we are to see any big business from the Toffees. I think reducing the injury list needs to be at the top of their priorities - then we may see them find some form.
Hull - MAYBE
Much like Everton, considerable investment made in the summer means that the Tigers should be expected to be fairly quiet. A couple of loan deals may be on the way (with Hatem Ben Arfa clearly on the way out), but other than strengthening the defence, I'm not sure Hull will be able to do much more in the window.
Leicester - YES
At the King Power, however, we may see some movement. With wealthy backers, Leicester perhaps did not take full advantage of the summer transfer window, with their only significant money signing the £7m buy of Leonardo Ulloa. The team continues to leak goals, so some strengthening in the centre of midfield and defence may well be needed.
And who could they get? From a midfield perspective, Manchester United's Anderson or Werder Bremen's Cedric Makiadi may be reasonable purchases for relatively little outlay, while defensively, Celtic's Virgil van Dijk may also help.
Liverpool - YES
Following a number of less than convincing summer buys, Brendan Rodgers has already made his intentions clear to dip into the transfer market this month - I'm guessing predominantly for a striker. With reports surfacing of links to a huge bid for Karim Benzema or Ilkay Gundogan, I personally think they are too far-fetched. Bids for targets like Wilfried Bony or even Schalke's Klaas-Jan Huntelaar may well be more realistic, but it will mean more outlay on an already expensive transfer spend.
Manchester City - YES
With both Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko injured, City's main transfer targets must be strikers this January. Like Liverpool, I see them looking towards the likes of Bony, with certain reports also linking the Blues to Atletico Madrid's Mario Mandzukic. If I had my way, I'd be making a considerable offer for Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus, as he can play either wide or up front. This would allow for potential rotation when City's main strikers become available, and would give Manuel Pellegrini an additional option.
Manchester United - YES
Despite spending over £150m in the summer, United will also be looking towards new faces this month. Defensively, the Red Devils have been a nightmare, and have relied heavily on David de Gea to bail them out in games. However, without the allure of Champions League football, they can kiss goodbye to attracting the likes of Mats Hummels, though Neven Subotic may be a more realistic aim. Alternatively, it may be that Louis van Gaal dips into his Dutch World Cup squad once more to target FC Porto's Bruno Martins Indi.
Newcastle United - NO
In short, keeping Moussa Sissoko may prove Newcastle's largest test in January, but with proven strikers in Papiss Cisse and Ayoze Perez, and a strong continent of youth players, I expect a new manager to be the only real incoming on Tyneside.
QPR - MAYBE
Should Charlie Austin leave, I expect the Hoops to flex their financial muscle again. However, having already agreed the loan signing of Mauro Zarate from West Ham, unless Austin is sold I'm expecting more deals of this kind or little to come from the London club.
Southampton - NO
After such an exceptional start to the season, I don't think they need anyone! Having made a number of top class signings in the summer, I think the time should certainly be spent on gelling their squad and building for the future with their stellar youth set-up.
Stoke - NO
Similar to a number of clubs, a lack of available funds and a reasonable summertime spend means that Mark Hughes is unlikely to strengthen his squad in January. Given his success, it may be keeping hold of Bojan Krkic that is Stoke's best bit of business.
Sunderland - NO
With the Black Cats still in the heart of a relegation battle, I think Gus Poyet will trust in the side he has, particularly after their spirited display away at Manchester City.
Swansea - MAYBE
This all depends on Wilfried Bony's future. The big Ivorian has been linked with moves to Liverpool, Manchester City or Tottenham, and despite being unavailable at the African Cup of Nations, Swansea's transfer budget may depend on any sale.
Tottenham - MAYBE
Other than a striker, Spurs are pretty much sorted. They are currently overly reliant on Harry Kane, and though the youngster has been in exceptional form, he will at some point need a rest. With both Roberto Soldado and Emmanuel Adebayor both woefully out of form, Wilfried Bony has been tipped for a move to White Hart Lane. Other than that, Spurs are looking fairly strong at the minute, so should the Ivorian move, I sense it being the only purchase.
West Brom - MAYBE
Like Crystal Palace, a new manager may mean a change in squad, however, with a limited budget, I'm not sure Tony Pulis is set to make many changes. A striker would be a good start, as the Baggies have struggled for goals so far this year, but it may be a battle between them and Crystal Palace for Danny Ings.
West Ham - NO
Like Southampton, such has been the excellent start to the season for West Ham, I really don't feel they need to buy anyone. Big Sam made a number of good signings in the summer, and I expect it to be enough to get them through the rest of the year.
Alternatively, January can also be a month to dread for sides, particularly teams towards the bottom end of the table. With Chairmen often finding it difficult to resist offers for their star men, selling an in-form player can equally have consequences - and not good ones.
With this in mind, who is likely to be making their move in this month-long carnage? And who is likely to be hoping that not much goes on?
Arsenal - YES
As attractive as flair players are, you need a bit of grit at the back to be successful. Despite this being shouted almost every week at Arsene Wenger by the pundits on Match of the Day (and in some cases, his own fans!), Arsenal have yet to sign a top quality defender to go alongside the likes of Sanchez, Cazorla, Ramsey etc going forward. Maybe it's because he couldn't find anyone French, but he has to move quickly in this window to ensure that Arsenal do not lose their top 4 status.
Who would be good? Though not a long term signing, Ron Vlaar may well be an option, however I feel that with Borussia Dortmund currently on such a poor run, there has never been a better time to test their resolve with a bid for either Mats Hummels or Neven Subotic.
Aston Villa - NO
With limited funds, this month may well be all about keeping their key players, rather than extending. The likes of Ron Vlaar and Christian Benteke may once again be targets for the larger teams, so Paul Lambert will do well to retain his current squad. The loss of either of these could be the difference between Premier League football next year, and a trip to the Championship.
Burnley - NO
Like Villa, it will be all about keeping hold of their key men - specifically Danny Ings.
Chelsea - MAYBE
Despite their considerable wealth, I am not expecting to see too much out of Chelsea this January. With Jose Mourinho having spent heavily in the summer to build his own team, I honestly can't think of many positions that he needs to replace. From front to back, they are pretty intimidating as a side, so I think it may be a case of some investment in youth players for the title-chasers.
Crystal Palace - MAYBE
With a new manager in the shape of Alan Pardew, the January transfer window could represent a good opportunity to stamp his authority on his new club. A top quality striker or midfielder may be the way forward, so a cheeky bid for either Danny Ings or Charlie Austin may be on the cards.
Everton - NO
Having forked out £28m on Romelu Lukaku in the summer, and with a chairman notoriously shy on splashing the cash, it is unlikely that we are to see any big business from the Toffees. I think reducing the injury list needs to be at the top of their priorities - then we may see them find some form.
Hull - MAYBE
Much like Everton, considerable investment made in the summer means that the Tigers should be expected to be fairly quiet. A couple of loan deals may be on the way (with Hatem Ben Arfa clearly on the way out), but other than strengthening the defence, I'm not sure Hull will be able to do much more in the window.
Leicester - YES
At the King Power, however, we may see some movement. With wealthy backers, Leicester perhaps did not take full advantage of the summer transfer window, with their only significant money signing the £7m buy of Leonardo Ulloa. The team continues to leak goals, so some strengthening in the centre of midfield and defence may well be needed.
And who could they get? From a midfield perspective, Manchester United's Anderson or Werder Bremen's Cedric Makiadi may be reasonable purchases for relatively little outlay, while defensively, Celtic's Virgil van Dijk may also help.
Liverpool - YES
Following a number of less than convincing summer buys, Brendan Rodgers has already made his intentions clear to dip into the transfer market this month - I'm guessing predominantly for a striker. With reports surfacing of links to a huge bid for Karim Benzema or Ilkay Gundogan, I personally think they are too far-fetched. Bids for targets like Wilfried Bony or even Schalke's Klaas-Jan Huntelaar may well be more realistic, but it will mean more outlay on an already expensive transfer spend.
Manchester City - YES
With both Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko injured, City's main transfer targets must be strikers this January. Like Liverpool, I see them looking towards the likes of Bony, with certain reports also linking the Blues to Atletico Madrid's Mario Mandzukic. If I had my way, I'd be making a considerable offer for Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus, as he can play either wide or up front. This would allow for potential rotation when City's main strikers become available, and would give Manuel Pellegrini an additional option.
Manchester United - YES
Despite spending over £150m in the summer, United will also be looking towards new faces this month. Defensively, the Red Devils have been a nightmare, and have relied heavily on David de Gea to bail them out in games. However, without the allure of Champions League football, they can kiss goodbye to attracting the likes of Mats Hummels, though Neven Subotic may be a more realistic aim. Alternatively, it may be that Louis van Gaal dips into his Dutch World Cup squad once more to target FC Porto's Bruno Martins Indi.
Newcastle United - NO
In short, keeping Moussa Sissoko may prove Newcastle's largest test in January, but with proven strikers in Papiss Cisse and Ayoze Perez, and a strong continent of youth players, I expect a new manager to be the only real incoming on Tyneside.
QPR - MAYBE
Should Charlie Austin leave, I expect the Hoops to flex their financial muscle again. However, having already agreed the loan signing of Mauro Zarate from West Ham, unless Austin is sold I'm expecting more deals of this kind or little to come from the London club.
Southampton - NO
After such an exceptional start to the season, I don't think they need anyone! Having made a number of top class signings in the summer, I think the time should certainly be spent on gelling their squad and building for the future with their stellar youth set-up.
Stoke - NO
Similar to a number of clubs, a lack of available funds and a reasonable summertime spend means that Mark Hughes is unlikely to strengthen his squad in January. Given his success, it may be keeping hold of Bojan Krkic that is Stoke's best bit of business.
Sunderland - NO
With the Black Cats still in the heart of a relegation battle, I think Gus Poyet will trust in the side he has, particularly after their spirited display away at Manchester City.
Swansea - MAYBE
This all depends on Wilfried Bony's future. The big Ivorian has been linked with moves to Liverpool, Manchester City or Tottenham, and despite being unavailable at the African Cup of Nations, Swansea's transfer budget may depend on any sale.
Tottenham - MAYBE
Other than a striker, Spurs are pretty much sorted. They are currently overly reliant on Harry Kane, and though the youngster has been in exceptional form, he will at some point need a rest. With both Roberto Soldado and Emmanuel Adebayor both woefully out of form, Wilfried Bony has been tipped for a move to White Hart Lane. Other than that, Spurs are looking fairly strong at the minute, so should the Ivorian move, I sense it being the only purchase.
West Brom - MAYBE
Like Crystal Palace, a new manager may mean a change in squad, however, with a limited budget, I'm not sure Tony Pulis is set to make many changes. A striker would be a good start, as the Baggies have struggled for goals so far this year, but it may be a battle between them and Crystal Palace for Danny Ings.
West Ham - NO
Like Southampton, such has been the excellent start to the season for West Ham, I really don't feel they need to buy anyone. Big Sam made a number of good signings in the summer, and I expect it to be enough to get them through the rest of the year.
Tuesday, 2 September 2014
Summer Transfer Window Closes: The Start of a Worrying Trend?
Transfer deadline day. The footballing equivalent to a crowded London marketplace mixed with a Glasgow pub brawl. With perhaps more bloodshed.
Some believe that the crescendo to the summer window merits a day off work. Though I am not quite of that mindset, I can't help but feel a strange sense of satisfaction watching the attempts of TV presenters to explain the chaos that will be occurring at 92 different locations across the Football League clubs, and countless more around the rest of the world. Millions are spent on the 1st September, some more wisely than others.
In recent years, as fees have escalated, the amount spent on this sacred day has risen exponentially. As a result, the panic-buying that is witnessed every years multiplies in cost to club owners across the country. On the other hand, some chief executives earn their pay packet on this day, as we have also witnessed some of the most successful transfers on this day. Wayne Rooney's £24m transfer to Manchester United in 2004 and Ashley Cole's 2006 move across London to Chelsea are good examples of this, and we will see plenty more in the coming years. And this is what makes deadline day so special.
So who has been guilty of panic-buying in recent years? A list of just some of the most high profile ones is below:
Andy van der Meyde - Inter Milan to Everton (£2m) - 20 apps/0 goals (2005 - 2009)
Xisco - Deportivo la Coruna to Newcastle United (£5.7m) - 9 apps/1 goal (2008 - 2013)
Roman Pavlyuchenko - Spartak Moscow to Tottenham Hotspur (£14m) - 78 apps/21 goals (2008 - 2012)
Dimitar Berbatov - Tottenham Hotspur to Manchester United (£30m) - 108 apps/48 goals (2009 - 2012)
Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m) - 41 apps/14 goals (2009 - 2011)
Paul Konchesky - Fulham to Liverpool (£4m) - 15 apps/0 goals (2010 - 2011)
Andre Santos - Fenerbahce to Arsenal (£5m) - 25 apps/3 goals (2011 - 2013)
Javi Garcia - Benfica to Manchester City (£16m) - 48 apps/2 goals (2012 - 2014)
Marouane Fellaini - Everton to Manchester United (£27m) - 17 apps/ 0 goals (2013 - current)
2014
This year's scramble for final additions has thrown up a few interesting transactions, and a worrying trend. With the Financial Fair Play regulations threatening to impact on a club's European involvement over the coming seasons, chief execs are looking for more ways to manipulate the system. We have seen clubs like Paris Saint Germain and Manchester City come acropper in their attempts to sign off enormous sponsorship deals to circumnavigate the regulations. While that could be deemed unfair, the current trend is going to be impossible to stop.
Deadline day has always been about the big names, the big transfers and the big money. However, this year we have seen a dramatic increase in the number of loan deals with an option to buy the following year. While this may appear on the surface to be foolhardy, as it always seems beneficial to tie the big names down to permanent deals, it may actually prove to be another shrewd move by chief execs to stay within the FFP regulations. With Manchester United having already spent in excess of £85m, the deal for Radamel Falcao would have taken the club far beyond the break-even necessary to avoid sanction from UEFA had it been permanent. However, with the option to defer payment for 12 months, the club can now rebuild its finances before having to fork out an additional sum. Similar deals for the likes of Alvaro Negredo and Javier Hernandez demonstrate that this trend seems set to continue.
The reason this trend is worrying? Call me old-fashioned, but I liked the thrill of the big signing. I remember staying up all night to watch the 2009 summer deadline day, which saw Manchester United sign Dimitar Berbatov for a British transfer record £30m, only for newly Arab-backed Manchester City to outdo them with the coup of Robinho minutes later for £32.5m. Though both eventually turned out to be flops, knowing that your club owns the player involved is exciting, while renting one is less so. If this is set to replace the traditional transfer deadline day, it will make the whole day a little less climactic, killing some of the fun that the broadcasters spend so long trying to instil.
Should this continue, the bloodshed and chaos we have become used to will become less of a pub brawl and more of an orderly queue of clubs, waiting their turn. A lot more safe, but a lot less exciting.
Some believe that the crescendo to the summer window merits a day off work. Though I am not quite of that mindset, I can't help but feel a strange sense of satisfaction watching the attempts of TV presenters to explain the chaos that will be occurring at 92 different locations across the Football League clubs, and countless more around the rest of the world. Millions are spent on the 1st September, some more wisely than others.
In recent years, as fees have escalated, the amount spent on this sacred day has risen exponentially. As a result, the panic-buying that is witnessed every years multiplies in cost to club owners across the country. On the other hand, some chief executives earn their pay packet on this day, as we have also witnessed some of the most successful transfers on this day. Wayne Rooney's £24m transfer to Manchester United in 2004 and Ashley Cole's 2006 move across London to Chelsea are good examples of this, and we will see plenty more in the coming years. And this is what makes deadline day so special.
So who has been guilty of panic-buying in recent years? A list of just some of the most high profile ones is below:
Andy van der Meyde - Inter Milan to Everton (£2m) - 20 apps/0 goals (2005 - 2009)
Xisco - Deportivo la Coruna to Newcastle United (£5.7m) - 9 apps/1 goal (2008 - 2013)
Roman Pavlyuchenko - Spartak Moscow to Tottenham Hotspur (£14m) - 78 apps/21 goals (2008 - 2012)
Dimitar Berbatov - Tottenham Hotspur to Manchester United (£30m) - 108 apps/48 goals (2009 - 2012)
Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m) - 41 apps/14 goals (2009 - 2011)
Paul Konchesky - Fulham to Liverpool (£4m) - 15 apps/0 goals (2010 - 2011)
Andre Santos - Fenerbahce to Arsenal (£5m) - 25 apps/3 goals (2011 - 2013)
Javi Garcia - Benfica to Manchester City (£16m) - 48 apps/2 goals (2012 - 2014)
Marouane Fellaini - Everton to Manchester United (£27m) - 17 apps/ 0 goals (2013 - current)
2014
This year's scramble for final additions has thrown up a few interesting transactions, and a worrying trend. With the Financial Fair Play regulations threatening to impact on a club's European involvement over the coming seasons, chief execs are looking for more ways to manipulate the system. We have seen clubs like Paris Saint Germain and Manchester City come acropper in their attempts to sign off enormous sponsorship deals to circumnavigate the regulations. While that could be deemed unfair, the current trend is going to be impossible to stop.
Deadline day has always been about the big names, the big transfers and the big money. However, this year we have seen a dramatic increase in the number of loan deals with an option to buy the following year. While this may appear on the surface to be foolhardy, as it always seems beneficial to tie the big names down to permanent deals, it may actually prove to be another shrewd move by chief execs to stay within the FFP regulations. With Manchester United having already spent in excess of £85m, the deal for Radamel Falcao would have taken the club far beyond the break-even necessary to avoid sanction from UEFA had it been permanent. However, with the option to defer payment for 12 months, the club can now rebuild its finances before having to fork out an additional sum. Similar deals for the likes of Alvaro Negredo and Javier Hernandez demonstrate that this trend seems set to continue.
The reason this trend is worrying? Call me old-fashioned, but I liked the thrill of the big signing. I remember staying up all night to watch the 2009 summer deadline day, which saw Manchester United sign Dimitar Berbatov for a British transfer record £30m, only for newly Arab-backed Manchester City to outdo them with the coup of Robinho minutes later for £32.5m. Though both eventually turned out to be flops, knowing that your club owns the player involved is exciting, while renting one is less so. If this is set to replace the traditional transfer deadline day, it will make the whole day a little less climactic, killing some of the fun that the broadcasters spend so long trying to instil.
Should this continue, the bloodshed and chaos we have become used to will become less of a pub brawl and more of an orderly queue of clubs, waiting their turn. A lot more safe, but a lot less exciting.
Sunday, 18 May 2014
Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)
Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.
Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.
Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.
Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.
Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).
For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.
I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.
After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)
As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.
For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.
Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.
Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.
I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.
After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)
With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.
This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.
End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)
So what of my prediction?
Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?
Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.
Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.
Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.
Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).
For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.
I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.
After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)
As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.
For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.
Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.
Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.
I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.
After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)
With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.
This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.
End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)
So what of my prediction?
Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?
Monday, 7 April 2014
Tactics Talk: Everton vs Arsenal
Lineups:
Everton (4-4-2): Howard, Baines, Stones, Distin, Coleman, Barry, Mirallas, Osman, McCarthy, Naismith, Lukaku
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Szchesny, Monreal, Vermaelen, Mertesacker, Sagna, Arteta, Flamini, Cazorla, Podolski, Rosicky, Giroud
This season has seen the resurgence of Merseyside, and both sides see themselves fighting for very different prizes, but ultimately both are in the same position. While Liverpool are the underdogs in the title race, with Brendan Rodgers claiming the pressure is off his side, Everton and Roberto Martinez are in the same situation, just swap the title for the Champions League. The recent run of 6 successive wins for the Toffees indicates that they are not unrealistically aiming at Arsenal's 4th spot, being only 4 points behind the Gunners at kick off with a game in hand.
This game was enormous for Arsenal. A win would keep their faint hopes of the title alive, while a draw would end those hopes. A defeat, however, would hand Everton an enormous boost and put Arsenal in danger of dropping out of the top 4 for the first time under Arsene Wenger's leadership. Despite a mound of injuries for Arsenal, both sides fielded as strong a side as they could.
The opening moments of the game saw the usual sparring, with neither side willing to take the initial risk. Leon Osman flashed a speculative volley wide, whilst Podolski wasted a reasonable chance at the other end. In the beginning exchanges, Arsenal were maintaining possession well, but failed to break through a stubborn Evertonian defence, with Stones and Distin holding the line well. Everton were forced into an early change, with Leon Osman being replaced by Ross Barkley after being caught in the face by a boot in a challenge. This was generally considered an attacking change, forcing Everton forward and just beginning to frustrate Arsenal.
After that tetchy start, Everton hit the front. A quick break away after a dangerous Arsenal attack left Leighton Baines marauding on the left side. A brilliant ball into Romelu Lukaku left the Belgian with a chance to get a shot away, forcing a save from Szchesny. However, Everton got fortunate with the rebound, falling to the clinical Steven Naismith, who tucked it into the far corner. With Baines and Coleman frequently terrorising the two Arsenal full backs, it came as little surprise that the goal came from this. However, despite this tactic clearly working, Arsenal failed to replicate this, opting instead to try and break down the middle, with Santi Cazorla and Tomas Rosicky the primary playmakers. However, this tactic never really came close to working, and the Arsenal defence continued to fail to understand the threat that the Everton wing-backs continued to pose, with Arsenal opting to remain fairly narrow to combat the threat of Barkley.
First half hour: Tactically, Arsenal looked inept, and Everton looked the more threatening, and looked likely to add to their deserved lead.
And so this proved. After a period of Arsenal pressure that once again yielded nothing, Everton struck on the break. With Lukaku drifting out wide, Nacho Monreal couldn't deal with the power of the Belgian, failing to show him down the line and allowing him to drift inside to fire beyond the goalkeeper. A critical goal and a hammer blow ten minutes before the break, Everton now held a strong position, which Arsenal would need to respond. But once again, they had no answer. Everton seemed more than happy, and more than comfortable to sit back and protect their lead to the break - and they did it comfortably.
Arsene Wenger would have needed to say something special to his team at half time or make some substantial changes. As the teams came out after the interval, it would have to have been the former, as each of the 11 that started the game continued. Initially, Arsenal looked marginally more threatening, with Wenger clearly telling them to target the wings, a tactic that had been so successful for Everton during the first period. A couple of individual errors by Everton gave them cause for concern, but once again they dealt fairly well with the Arsenal threat. As such, the game began to settle down as the hour mark approached. However, almost bang on the hour, the game was over. An error in the Arsenal midfield enabled Everton to threaten down the wing again, and the cross was eventually turned in by Mikel Arteta, of all people the ex-Everton man, under pressure by Kevin Mirallas.
Second half hour: Two goals and the game over with half an hour to go, Everton have outplayed Arsenal in every department.
This season has seen the resurgence of Merseyside, and both sides see themselves fighting for very different prizes, but ultimately both are in the same position. While Liverpool are the underdogs in the title race, with Brendan Rodgers claiming the pressure is off his side, Everton and Roberto Martinez are in the same situation, just swap the title for the Champions League. The recent run of 6 successive wins for the Toffees indicates that they are not unrealistically aiming at Arsenal's 4th spot, being only 4 points behind the Gunners at kick off with a game in hand.
This game was enormous for Arsenal. A win would keep their faint hopes of the title alive, while a draw would end those hopes. A defeat, however, would hand Everton an enormous boost and put Arsenal in danger of dropping out of the top 4 for the first time under Arsene Wenger's leadership. Despite a mound of injuries for Arsenal, both sides fielded as strong a side as they could.
The opening moments of the game saw the usual sparring, with neither side willing to take the initial risk. Leon Osman flashed a speculative volley wide, whilst Podolski wasted a reasonable chance at the other end. In the beginning exchanges, Arsenal were maintaining possession well, but failed to break through a stubborn Evertonian defence, with Stones and Distin holding the line well. Everton were forced into an early change, with Leon Osman being replaced by Ross Barkley after being caught in the face by a boot in a challenge. This was generally considered an attacking change, forcing Everton forward and just beginning to frustrate Arsenal.
After that tetchy start, Everton hit the front. A quick break away after a dangerous Arsenal attack left Leighton Baines marauding on the left side. A brilliant ball into Romelu Lukaku left the Belgian with a chance to get a shot away, forcing a save from Szchesny. However, Everton got fortunate with the rebound, falling to the clinical Steven Naismith, who tucked it into the far corner. With Baines and Coleman frequently terrorising the two Arsenal full backs, it came as little surprise that the goal came from this. However, despite this tactic clearly working, Arsenal failed to replicate this, opting instead to try and break down the middle, with Santi Cazorla and Tomas Rosicky the primary playmakers. However, this tactic never really came close to working, and the Arsenal defence continued to fail to understand the threat that the Everton wing-backs continued to pose, with Arsenal opting to remain fairly narrow to combat the threat of Barkley.
First half hour: Tactically, Arsenal looked inept, and Everton looked the more threatening, and looked likely to add to their deserved lead.
And so this proved. After a period of Arsenal pressure that once again yielded nothing, Everton struck on the break. With Lukaku drifting out wide, Nacho Monreal couldn't deal with the power of the Belgian, failing to show him down the line and allowing him to drift inside to fire beyond the goalkeeper. A critical goal and a hammer blow ten minutes before the break, Everton now held a strong position, which Arsenal would need to respond. But once again, they had no answer. Everton seemed more than happy, and more than comfortable to sit back and protect their lead to the break - and they did it comfortably.
Arsene Wenger would have needed to say something special to his team at half time or make some substantial changes. As the teams came out after the interval, it would have to have been the former, as each of the 11 that started the game continued. Initially, Arsenal looked marginally more threatening, with Wenger clearly telling them to target the wings, a tactic that had been so successful for Everton during the first period. A couple of individual errors by Everton gave them cause for concern, but once again they dealt fairly well with the Arsenal threat. As such, the game began to settle down as the hour mark approached. However, almost bang on the hour, the game was over. An error in the Arsenal midfield enabled Everton to threaten down the wing again, and the cross was eventually turned in by Mikel Arteta, of all people the ex-Everton man, under pressure by Kevin Mirallas.
Second half hour: Two goals and the game over with half an hour to go, Everton have outplayed Arsenal in every department.
Finally the sub arrived, but with far too much to do in far too little time. Podolski and Flamini were withdrawn in favour of Oxlade-Chamberlain and Ramsey. For Arsenal fans, it is great news to see Aaron Ramsey back on a football pitch, as he was one of the most illuminating players of the first half of the season, and it is no coincidence that his injury came at the same time as Arsenal's downturn in form, coupled with the absence of Theo Walcott and Mesut Ozil. In a final substitution, Arsene Wenger brought off the ineffective Olivier Giroud, who just hasn't lived up to expectations this season, for another disappointing striker, Yaya Sanogo.
By this point in the game, Everton knew they had the win under control, and were playing neat 'ole' football, giving their fans plenty to cheer. After excellent performances, Naismith and Lukaku were rested, with Aiden McGeady and Gerard Deulofeu coming on for the final 10 minutes. Other than Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain demonstrating how he could have affected the game, smashing a 25 yard shot off the face of the bar, there was little of interest. An injury time scuffle between Ross Barkley and Mikel Arteta, in which the Arsenal man received a yellow card, compounded the misery of the Gunners, who will now be looking anxiously over their shoulders.
Final half hour: No-one did anything of note in the final half hour, but by then, the game was well and truly beyond Arsenal, with Everton the clear and deserved winners.
By this point in the game, Everton knew they had the win under control, and were playing neat 'ole' football, giving their fans plenty to cheer. After excellent performances, Naismith and Lukaku were rested, with Aiden McGeady and Gerard Deulofeu coming on for the final 10 minutes. Other than Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain demonstrating how he could have affected the game, smashing a 25 yard shot off the face of the bar, there was little of interest. An injury time scuffle between Ross Barkley and Mikel Arteta, in which the Arsenal man received a yellow card, compounded the misery of the Gunners, who will now be looking anxiously over their shoulders.
Final half hour: No-one did anything of note in the final half hour, but by then, the game was well and truly beyond Arsenal, with Everton the clear and deserved winners.
This result shuts one door for Arsenal, and opens another extremely worrying one. This is an emphatic indication of the confidence of the two teams at present, which doe not bode well for the Gunners, who on paper have the easier run in. However, if Everton perform to the same level against the two Manchester clubs at Goodison, I do not see any reason why they can't pick up valuable points. The race for 4th is very much on, and it would come as no surprise to me if Everton break the 15 year hold on the Champions League enjoyed by Wenger and Arsenal.
Monday, 12 August 2013
Arsenal: Top 4 Or Bust?
2012/2013: 4th
Player(s) In: Yaya Sanogo (Auxerre, Free), Emiliano Viviano (Palermo, Loan), Mesut Ozil (Real Madrid, £42.4 Million)
Player(s) Out: Gervinho (Roma, £8 Million), Andre Santos (Flamengo, Free), Vito Mannone (Hull, £2 Million), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, Loan), Denilson (Sao Paulo, Free), Andrey Arshavin, Sebastien Squillaci (All Released)
Transfers Review:
Comparing Arsenal's signings to my earlier Arsenal season review post, in which I laid out those players who had been considered transfer targets, and who would be expected to leave, we can clearly see that many of Arsenal's transfer targets have either moved on, or have elected to stay with their respective clubs. How many of these were approached by the Gunners is unclear, but certainly a couple were thought to be very much on the Arsenal radar. In terms of outgoings, Arsenal will be glad to have kept key players like Podolski and Sagna, and have got rid of much of the deadwood. However, replacements for all of these have yet to be found, perhaps leaving the squad a little threadbare. Certainly, they cannot afford many injuries as things stand.
In another season in which Arsenal had seemingly failed to spend a large sum, initial moves for firstly Gonzalo Higuain, and more notably, Luis Suarez, to bolster their striking options, had both been unsuccessful. With Higuain now at Napoli, the Suarez affair rumbled on. Arsenal's bid of £40,000,001, designed to trigger a clause in the striker's contract (which the Gunners were ill-informed about), illustrated Wenger's change in position over spending. The usual sense of 'only spend what we bring in' has been abandoned, with the board well aware that a lack of recruits may lead to them missing out on that all-important 4th place this year. The deadline day signing of Mesut Ozil for £42.4 Million further illustrates the change in emphasis. The Real Madrid man will be an excellent signing, but I do question whether another creative midfielder is needed, with both Cazorla and Podolski already on the books. Whether Wenger will go to the figures that Brendan Rodgers is suggesting for Suarez (closer to £100 Million) is doubtful, but Arsenal still need to bring in further reinforcements, especially with the release/sale of several back-up players.
Having said that, the North London club were one of the first to announce a transfer, with the France U21 international Yaya Sanogo coming in on a free transfer from Auxerre. The 20-year-old striker looks a decent prospect, and will provide vital goals in Arsenal's charge for the top 4. However, he is just 20, and he will inevitably take time to adjust to the Premier League. As much as I think he looks a prospect, I would be highly surprised if he scored more than 10 goals this season. In my opinion, a defender, a wide midfielder, and a high profile striker are still all needed to give Arsenal the advantage on the race for the 4th place. As it stands, I fear for Arsene Wenger's long record of providing Champions League football.
Pre-Season:
The Gunners set off on a pre-season tour of Asia at the beginning of July, where they were greeted by enormous crowds wherever they went, indicating Arsenal's impression on the continent. Whilst the results may not be particularly relevant or indicative of the upcoming season, it is always a good opportunity to hand the young players a chance to show themselves. They certainly took that opportunity, demolishing firstly the Indonesia All Stars 7-0, before travelling to Hanoi to win against Vietnam 7-1. The following two matches were certainly a lot closer, but ultimately ended with the same result. The Gunners beat Nagoya Grampus Eight 3-1, before a close fought 2-1 win over Urawa Red Diamonds to end their tour. Returning to Europe, Arsenal took part in three (perhaps more relevant) friendly matches, starting at home to Napoli in the annual Emirates Cup. After falling 2-0 down after the first half-hour, the Gunners fought back to secure a promising draw, with late goals from Giroud and Koscielny. In the final, Arsenal faced Galatasaray, and an old adversary came back to haunt them. Didier Drogba, who returned to Europe in January after a brief stint in China, converted a soft penalty to level Theo Walcott's first half strike, before drilling home late on to secure the win for the Turks. After that disappointment, a visit from high-spending Manchester City to finish the Gunners' preparations would have been the last thing they needed. However, Arsenal responded to produce arguably their finest performance of the summer, winning 3-1, and handing themselves the perfect morale-booster before the start of the new Premier League season.
Key Players:
Wenger and Arsenal will have to rely on many of their established names to produce the form that is worthy of Champions League football. This season may well prove to be pivotal in the career of Jack Wilshire. The England midfielder has been beset by injuries for the majority of the last couple of seasons, and will be anxious to find some kind of form. From an English perspective, seeing Wilshire perform regularly will only be beneficial when it comes to the national team.
Secondly, this will have to be the season where we see the best from Santi Cazorla. The diminutive Spaniard looked promising last campaign, but with Arsenal's lack of signings, his input becomes ever more crucial. He now must take the role that Juan Mata performed so outstandingly for Chelsea last year: chief playmaker. How many goals Arsenal score this season could be, in no small part, down to him.
Key Fixture Dates:
01/09/2013: Arsenal vs Tottenham
02/11/2013: Arsenal vs Liverpool
10/11/2013: Manchester United vs Arsenal
14/12/2013: Manchester City vs Arsenal
21/12/2013: Arsenal vs Chelsea
08/02/2014: Liverpool vs Arsenal
11/02/2014: Arsenal vs Manchester United
15/03/2014: Tottenham vs Arsenal
22/03/2014: Chelsea vs Arsenal
29/03/2014: Arsenal vs Manchester City
Top Goalscorer:
This is an area in which Arsenal are going to struggle this campaign. Unless the Luis Suarez affair ends in their favour, bringing the Uruguayan to The Emirates, much of the goalscoring responsibilities will fall onto the shoulders of Olivier Giroud. Arsene Wenger's love of French strikers is obvious, with, at times, spectacular results. I do not think that the former Montpellier man is of the calibre of Thierry Henry, however. Unlike his compatriot, I doubt Giroud's ability to carry this team in the way Henry or Robin van Persie used to do. I do believe that Giroud will finish as Arsenal's top goalscorer, though I do not expect his tally to be particularly high.
Prediction:
Once again, this will be a season in which the Gunners challenge for a place among Europe's elite, rarely threatening the title race, but unlikely to slip down the table dramatically. As things stand, I fear that this season may be the year that their city rivals Tottenham pip them to that final Champions League spot. In my opinion, Arsenal will struggle in the final third, without a proven goalscorer. Whilst they look defensively strong, I expect to see too many draws to claim that 4th place.
Arsenal 2013/2014: 5th
Player(s) In: Yaya Sanogo (Auxerre, Free), Emiliano Viviano (Palermo, Loan), Mesut Ozil (Real Madrid, £42.4 Million)
Player(s) Out: Gervinho (Roma, £8 Million), Andre Santos (Flamengo, Free), Vito Mannone (Hull, £2 Million), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, Loan), Denilson (Sao Paulo, Free), Andrey Arshavin, Sebastien Squillaci (All Released)
Transfers Review:
Comparing Arsenal's signings to my earlier Arsenal season review post, in which I laid out those players who had been considered transfer targets, and who would be expected to leave, we can clearly see that many of Arsenal's transfer targets have either moved on, or have elected to stay with their respective clubs. How many of these were approached by the Gunners is unclear, but certainly a couple were thought to be very much on the Arsenal radar. In terms of outgoings, Arsenal will be glad to have kept key players like Podolski and Sagna, and have got rid of much of the deadwood. However, replacements for all of these have yet to be found, perhaps leaving the squad a little threadbare. Certainly, they cannot afford many injuries as things stand.
In another season in which Arsenal had seemingly failed to spend a large sum, initial moves for firstly Gonzalo Higuain, and more notably, Luis Suarez, to bolster their striking options, had both been unsuccessful. With Higuain now at Napoli, the Suarez affair rumbled on. Arsenal's bid of £40,000,001, designed to trigger a clause in the striker's contract (which the Gunners were ill-informed about), illustrated Wenger's change in position over spending. The usual sense of 'only spend what we bring in' has been abandoned, with the board well aware that a lack of recruits may lead to them missing out on that all-important 4th place this year. The deadline day signing of Mesut Ozil for £42.4 Million further illustrates the change in emphasis. The Real Madrid man will be an excellent signing, but I do question whether another creative midfielder is needed, with both Cazorla and Podolski already on the books. Whether Wenger will go to the figures that Brendan Rodgers is suggesting for Suarez (closer to £100 Million) is doubtful, but Arsenal still need to bring in further reinforcements, especially with the release/sale of several back-up players.
Having said that, the North London club were one of the first to announce a transfer, with the France U21 international Yaya Sanogo coming in on a free transfer from Auxerre. The 20-year-old striker looks a decent prospect, and will provide vital goals in Arsenal's charge for the top 4. However, he is just 20, and he will inevitably take time to adjust to the Premier League. As much as I think he looks a prospect, I would be highly surprised if he scored more than 10 goals this season. In my opinion, a defender, a wide midfielder, and a high profile striker are still all needed to give Arsenal the advantage on the race for the 4th place. As it stands, I fear for Arsene Wenger's long record of providing Champions League football.
Pre-Season:
The Gunners set off on a pre-season tour of Asia at the beginning of July, where they were greeted by enormous crowds wherever they went, indicating Arsenal's impression on the continent. Whilst the results may not be particularly relevant or indicative of the upcoming season, it is always a good opportunity to hand the young players a chance to show themselves. They certainly took that opportunity, demolishing firstly the Indonesia All Stars 7-0, before travelling to Hanoi to win against Vietnam 7-1. The following two matches were certainly a lot closer, but ultimately ended with the same result. The Gunners beat Nagoya Grampus Eight 3-1, before a close fought 2-1 win over Urawa Red Diamonds to end their tour. Returning to Europe, Arsenal took part in three (perhaps more relevant) friendly matches, starting at home to Napoli in the annual Emirates Cup. After falling 2-0 down after the first half-hour, the Gunners fought back to secure a promising draw, with late goals from Giroud and Koscielny. In the final, Arsenal faced Galatasaray, and an old adversary came back to haunt them. Didier Drogba, who returned to Europe in January after a brief stint in China, converted a soft penalty to level Theo Walcott's first half strike, before drilling home late on to secure the win for the Turks. After that disappointment, a visit from high-spending Manchester City to finish the Gunners' preparations would have been the last thing they needed. However, Arsenal responded to produce arguably their finest performance of the summer, winning 3-1, and handing themselves the perfect morale-booster before the start of the new Premier League season.
Key Players:
Wenger and Arsenal will have to rely on many of their established names to produce the form that is worthy of Champions League football. This season may well prove to be pivotal in the career of Jack Wilshire. The England midfielder has been beset by injuries for the majority of the last couple of seasons, and will be anxious to find some kind of form. From an English perspective, seeing Wilshire perform regularly will only be beneficial when it comes to the national team.
Secondly, this will have to be the season where we see the best from Santi Cazorla. The diminutive Spaniard looked promising last campaign, but with Arsenal's lack of signings, his input becomes ever more crucial. He now must take the role that Juan Mata performed so outstandingly for Chelsea last year: chief playmaker. How many goals Arsenal score this season could be, in no small part, down to him.
Key Fixture Dates:
01/09/2013: Arsenal vs Tottenham
02/11/2013: Arsenal vs Liverpool
10/11/2013: Manchester United vs Arsenal
14/12/2013: Manchester City vs Arsenal
21/12/2013: Arsenal vs Chelsea
08/02/2014: Liverpool vs Arsenal
11/02/2014: Arsenal vs Manchester United
15/03/2014: Tottenham vs Arsenal
22/03/2014: Chelsea vs Arsenal
29/03/2014: Arsenal vs Manchester City
Top Goalscorer:
This is an area in which Arsenal are going to struggle this campaign. Unless the Luis Suarez affair ends in their favour, bringing the Uruguayan to The Emirates, much of the goalscoring responsibilities will fall onto the shoulders of Olivier Giroud. Arsene Wenger's love of French strikers is obvious, with, at times, spectacular results. I do not think that the former Montpellier man is of the calibre of Thierry Henry, however. Unlike his compatriot, I doubt Giroud's ability to carry this team in the way Henry or Robin van Persie used to do. I do believe that Giroud will finish as Arsenal's top goalscorer, though I do not expect his tally to be particularly high.
Prediction:
Once again, this will be a season in which the Gunners challenge for a place among Europe's elite, rarely threatening the title race, but unlikely to slip down the table dramatically. As things stand, I fear that this season may be the year that their city rivals Tottenham pip them to that final Champions League spot. In my opinion, Arsenal will struggle in the final third, without a proven goalscorer. Whilst they look defensively strong, I expect to see too many draws to claim that 4th place.
Arsenal 2013/2014: 5th
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