PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Southampton

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Middlesbrough

Last season
We're getting used to saying it when it comes to Southampton, but another surprisingly strong season for the Saints. Since coming back into the Premier League, the South Coast club have continued to outperform predictions, despite continuously losing their best players. However, once again last year, it was the performance of the manager that drew the most praise. Ronald Koeman, having added to his squad with the likes of centre back Virgil van Dijk, led the team to a 6th place finish, one place better than last year, and the highest placing since returning to the division.

Backroom setup
However, the adulation shown to Koeman by fans and pundits alike inevitably turned heads. At the end of last season, it became clear that Everton were head-hunting the Dutchman. While Southampton could not prevent him from leaving, they did at least manage to recoup £5m in compensation.

In his place came French veteran manager Claude Puel. Having spent his entire career in his home country with Monaco, Lille, Lyon and Nice, his lack of experience in the English game may be a blessing or a curse, and it will certainly be interesting to see how he stamps his authority on the team.

Pre-season
If pre-season is anything to go by, he has already made big steps with his current squad. Going unbeaten throughout their six matches, that includes key victories against PEC Zwolle (4-0), Twente  (2-1) and Athletic Bilbao (1-0). In particular, Charlie Austin and Shane Long have hit the ground running when it comes to finding the net, while defensively they have looked strong.

In their other three fixtures, they saw a 2-0 win over DC United's Under 23's, as well as a 1-0 win over Dutch side Groningen. In fact, the only match that prevented them maintaining a 100 per cent record was a 1-1 draw against Espanyol - a game that the Saints led for the vast majority. If this is anything to go by, Southampton are in great shape to start the season, and will look to maintain their momentum into their first match against Watford.

Squad and signings
Once again, it would appear that Southampton have lost some of their biggest name players, but history would suggest that this isn't the end of the world. The £61m recouped for Sadio Mane (Liverpool), Victor Wanyama (Tottenham) and Graziano Pelle (Shandong Luneng), making the latter the most-well paid sportsman on the planet, has enabled them to make a few additions, but they have yet to make a marquee signing.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg certainly has the potential to be a key player, with the ex-Bayern man already playing a role in pre-season, but the other signings of Nathan Redmond, Jeremy Pied and Alex McCarthy are hardly setting the world alight. With the funds they have, both from the television deal and the sales, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints active on deadline day - I wonder if Puel can borrow the Land Rover from Arry' for the big day?

Tactics
I'll admit, I'm not particularly familiar with the playing style of Claude Puel, so I can't honestly suggest a tactic that I expect to see from the Frenchman. However, the players that he has would dictate a quick pass and move game, utilising the wing-backs and looking to put Shane Long in behind at every available opportunity.

Predictions

I know we do this every year, but I expect this to be the season that the upward trajectory of the Saints end. Eventually, every team would miss their key players having sold the majority of them over the past three years, and while I expect them to steer well clear of relegation problems, I see them entering an area of mid-table mediocrity this season. The Europa League excursions will do them no favours, and will further deplete an already thin squad.

Final position: 12th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Manchester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool

Last season

Despite a Champions League semi-final appearance, last season was ultimately one of disappointment for the Blues. A lighting fast start saw pundits blown away with the early form, but this quickly faded, leaving City floundering behind Leicester and challenging with their city rivals for the final Champions League spot, something only confirmed on the final day. A League Cup victory was scant consolation for the money invested, and the club's form following the announcement of Pep Guardiola's arrival will have concerned fans.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, in February 2016, Manuel Pellegrini made the announcement that Pep Guardiola, widely considered the greatest manager in the world, would be taking over at the Etihad in the summer. However, this had a dramatic impact on the club's form, with City falling from title contention to narrowly avoiding missing out on Champions League football. Guardiola's appointment was the end result of a long programme by City, which includes recent hirings of Barcelona' backroom staff, including Tiki Begiristain as Director of Football.

Pre-season
Guardiola has suffered a stop-start pre-season campaign, but the majority of their matches have been against clubs of the highest standard. City started with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Guardiola's old club Bayern Munich, before they embarked on their International Champions Cup campaign. After much debate over whether Guardiola would shake the hand of new Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho before their meeting, it all ended in an anti-climax as the match was abandoned due to bad weather.

However, Pep did manage to secure his first win with a 6-5 penalty shootout victory over Borussia Dortmund, following a 1-1 draw in normal time - a Sergio Aguero goal cancelled out by a last minute Christian Pulisic strike. Their final game was arguably their most disappointing, with a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal perhaps the most indicative of City's quality against their English rivals.

Squad and signings
After a slow start, City's activity has kicked into top gear in recent weeks, with seven signings to date. Youth has been a key focus for the club, with Spanish winger Nolito, signed from Celta Vigo for £13m, the only player over the age of 25. Ilkay Gundogan, the Dortmund central midfielder, became the first Guardiola signing for just £20m, while City made use of their links with Australian club Melbourne City to sign Aaron Mooy. With the only other signing, the young winger Aleksandr Zinchenko from Russian side Ufa, announced as we moved into August, the club has burst into life with a trio of signings in the space of four days. Winger Leroy Sane was signed from Schalke for £37m, while both Gabriel Jesus and Marlos Moreno joined from South America for a combined £31m.

The largest signing was, typically for City, English, with young centre back John Stones snared for an estimated £47.5m. While certainly an expensive purchase, much has been made of his likeness to past centre-back in Pep Guardiola's previous teams, including Gerard Pique - not faint praise indeed!

Despite the disappointment of last season, there have been relatively few outgoings from the club, despite many, including myself, predicting an exodus at the Blues. To date, only Martin Demichelis and Richard Wright have been released, as Guardiola seemingly looks to revive the fortunes of many of the current squad including Yaya Toure, Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas. While the omission of Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony and Eliaquim Mangala has led to speculation over their futures, little concrete has been discussed.

Tactics
As Fabian Delph has pointed out in interviews, Guardiola has already had a significant impact on the playing style of the squad, with an increased emphasis on keeping possession and moving the ball around quickly. With players of the quality of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne on the ball, it's not like he hasn't got the talent to apply this, but it will be more interesting to see how City do without the ball, as it is defensively where they have often been found wanting.

Predictions
With youth being the key focus for the Blues so far this year, I just get the feeling this may be one step too far for a title win this season. They'll likely run the eventual winners close, but may have to settle for second. Expect them to only get stronger and stronger over the next three years, as Guardiola looks to replicate the success he had at Barcelona.

Final position: 2nd

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Leicester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City

Last season
The greatest shock in sporting history. Everyone, including myself, said they couldn't keep it up, that they would fold under the pressure. However, this just seemed to galvanise Claudio Ranieri's team, with the likes of Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kante catching the eye with their consistency and flair.

In the end, they ran out comfortable winners, leading Arsenal by 10 points to claim their first league title in their history, and ensure Gary Lineker does the first Match of the Day in his underwear this season!

Backroom setup

Unsurprisingly, the Leicester board decided to keep Ranieri on this year, as well as the majority of his backroom staff. However, they did suffer a blow, seeing talent spotter Steve Walsh, behind the signings of some of their title-winning stars, poached by Everton.

Pre-season
A relatively short pre-season for the champions, but certainly testing! While they started and ended with relatively easier fixtures, with a 2-1 win against Oxford United and a XX over Chesterfield, they did have the season-opening Charity Shield match against Manchester United to contend with. However, in the middle was the little matter of the International Champions Cup, starting with a narrow 6-5 penalties win over Celtic after a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.

The latter two games were daunting, however, with Paris Saint Germain teaching the Foxes a footballing lesson in a 4-0 thrashing. They did put on a better showing in a 4-2 defeat against Barcelona, but were again exposed as inexperienced at the highest level, which will make their inaugural Champions League season an interesting one.

The Foxes' pre-season came to a close with the Charity Shield match against Manchester United. Despite a valient showing, the Foxes were on the back foot for the entirety of the game, with a Marouane Fellaini mistake enabling Jamie Vardy the opportunity to level at 1-1. However, a late Zlatan Ibrahimovic header meant that they didn't hold on, sinking to a 2-1 defeat.

Squad and signings

Most importantly for Leicester was retaining the talent that managed to get them to the title last year. While they have lost N'Golo Kante to Chelsea for £32m, both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez opted against joining Arsenal to remain with the Foxes.

In addition, Ranieri looked to strengthen further, bringing in a number of strong names from around Europe. Before the window had barely begun, Leicester had announced the signing of German goalkeeper Ron-Robert Zieler to challenge Kasper Schmeichel for the number 1 spot. Defenders Luis Hernandez and Napalys Mendy joined for free and £13m respectively from Sporting Gijon and Nice, while there were attacking reinforcements in Raul Rubio, Bartosz Kaputska and Ahmed Musa, again breaking the Foxes transfer record.

However, the main question is are these signings of a high enough quality to keep the Premier League's giants at bay this year?

Tactics
As champions, the Foxes will go into this season with just as much confidence, so the same tactics are likely to apply. Expect Leicester to avoid the ball more often than not, and look to provide counter-attacks with blistering speed. The signing of Musa will certainly aid in this, with the pace to rival Jamie Vardy, as well as providing the ideal foil for Riyad Mahrez.

Predictions
Can the Foxes shock the world again? In my opinion, no. They will certainly command greater respect than at the start of last year, but I would expect to see Leicester fall back into the upper mid-table, with a challenge for Europa League football probably the best they can expect. With an increasingly congested fixture list thanks to the Champions League, I just don't think the squad is deep enough to compete with the top teams, and will see them consolidate their status this year.

Final position: 7th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Chelsea

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace

Last season
An absolute disaster. The 2014/15 champions suffered one of the worst title defences of all time, struggling around the relegation zone for the first six months of the season. Having released Jose Mourinho for the second time, the team steadied under the stewardship of Guus Hiddink, eventually finishing tenth. With no other success in cup competitions, including a disappointing Champions League campaign.

Backroom setup

After 12 months of turbulence, with firstly Jose Mourinho and then Guus Hiddink as managers. With the latter always a short-term replacement, the club knew that the summer was going to be crucial. With many of their rivals also making managerial appointments, Chelsea needed someone high profile. Antonio Conte fit the bill perfectly, but it will be interesting to see whether the players deal with his tough-talking technique.

Pre-season
Before entering into the International Champions Cup, set to really provide a stern challenge, the Blues took a tour of Austria to warm up. However, no-one told Rapid Wien to go easy, with Chelsea suffering a 2-0 defeat in their first game. Though this was a youthful side, it was hardly the ideal start for Conte. Nevertheless, successive strong victories without conceding would follow, beating Wolfsberger 3-0 and unknown quantity Atus Ferlach 8-0, with Pedro, Remy, Mikel and new signing Michy Batshuayi all on target.

The International Champions Cup saw the Blues pitted against Liverpool, Real Madrid and AC Milan. Though Chelsea scored early to get the best of their Premier League rivals in a feisty 1-0 win, they struggled to get to grips with a weakened Madrid side, going 3-0 down early thanks to goals from Marcelo and Mariano. Though Hazard pulled two back in the late stages, they couldn't fight back. There was better news from their final two games, with successive wins over AC Milan (3-1) and Werder Bremen (4-2) putting the Blues in a strong position for the start of the season.

Squad and signings

As with behind the scenes, there have been changes to the Chelsea squad, though not perhaps as many as some were expecting. There have been big money moves for both Batshuayi and N'Golo Kante, who performed so admirably for Leicester in their title win last season, both valued at around £30m, with the only exits a number of loans. However, with the aberration of last year for the Blues, I would expect to see more comings and goings from Stamford Bridge in the remainder of the window.

Tactics
Conte has been synonymous with strong physical players during his time as Italian coach, and has seemed to favour a 3-5-2 formation. Whether he will translate that to Chelsea is unclear, though his intent to keep Juan Cuadrado, who had seemed on his way out just a few months ago, perhaps highlights that he could be keeping this tactic in his back pocket if it is required. Much more will be expected of both Fabregas and Hazard as a creative force this year if Chelsea are to be successful.

Predictions

Simply, there is no way that Chelsea can be as bad this year as they were last. While form is temporary, class is permanent, and without the distraction of the Champions League this season, I would fully expect to see them challenging towards the top few places. I still feel that they are lagging slightly behind both Manchester clubs in terms of quality, but I think they will cement their place as best of the rest this season, and may put together a more cohesive push next term.

Final position: 3rd

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Arsenal

Following arguably the most surprising Premier League season in the history of the competition, I thought I'd test my predictive powers on the upcoming year. In this series, I will profile the clubs involved in this season, covering the big summer changes, expected tactics, and recent performance, before making a judgement on the team as a whole.

I'll start my roundup with Arsenal.

Last season
Despite the club achieving its highest finish for more than a decade, securing the 2nd spot on the final day by pipping local rivals Tottenham, last season still goes down as a disappointment for Arsene Wenger's men, finishing 10 points behind champions Leicester. With their main title rivals all failing to maintain any consistency, it was seen as Arsenal's biggest chance to win their first championship since 2004. Throw in disappointing exits to both the FA Cup and Champions League, and there were once again calls for the head of the manager.

Backroom changes
Despite the pressure being put on him, Wenger has endured to start his 21st season at the helm of the Gunners. In line with that, there have not been all that many changes at the Emirates off the pitch, with the only news to emerge from the club that legend Thierry Henry would leave his role as under-18s coach to focus on his punditry career.

Pre-season
Just the four fixtures for the Arsenal squad to warm themselves up, with the planned fixture against French side Lens abandoned due to the terrorist atrocities seen. Of the matches played, the Gunners saw a narrow 2-1 win over the MLS All-Stars, with youngster Chuba Akpom adding to a Joel Campbell goal late on.

The Gunners have maintained a strong momentum heading into the Premier League, with convincing wins over Guadalajara, Viking and, most impressively, Manchester City, with the latter a 3-2 thriller in Gothenburg.

Squad and Signings
With stupid sums of money flying around this summer, it came as no surprise to anyone that Wenger announced he would not be spending large amounts on transfers this summer, with the £35m signing of Swiss international Granit Xhaka expected to be the most expensive move. In addition to this headline signing, Arsenal have added youngsters Takuma Asano and Rob Holding from Hiroshima Sanfrecce and Bolton Wanderers respectively.

However, their largest exploits have yet to come off, with approaches for both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez being given the cold shoulder by the individuals.

In terms of exits, Arsenal fans will be pleased that there have been no significant departures, with the releases of ageing stars Mathieu Flamini, Mikel Arteta and Tomas Rosicky the most high profile, as well as a few loans.

Tactics
Exactly the same as it has been the last 20 seasons, namely, quick pass and move football on a slick surface. With Olivier Giroud still the main striker, expect to see some long balls for the Frenchman to hold up when the team is under pressure.

Prediction
While pundits like Martin Keown and Ian Wright will once again proclaim that 'this just feels like Arsenal's year', I just don't see it. The fact that they feel unable to keep up financially with their rivals tells you that they are not in the same fight. For me, it seems set to be another North London competition, but this time for a place in the Champions League rather than the title. As they have done so often in the past, it's a battle I see the Gunners winning.

Final position: 4th

2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Invading The Continent (Champions League)

With the announcement of the Premier League fixtures, the rumour mills spins into overdrive about who is favourite for the big prizes - the title, the Champions League, and avoiding relegation. In my post yesterday, I outlined my opinion on who I believe is currently favourites for the Premier League title, based solely on the fixtures in the opening five games, the busy Christmas period, and the final five. This time, it's the turn of those sides competing for a place in the Champions League, namely Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton.

So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.

Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.

Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.

So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.

So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.

It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.

Football's 'Best Ever Side' - Really?

For those of you that live in a cave, or don't have access to a TV or the internet, yesterday was the Champions League final. And following a (rather more closely fought than anticipated) 3-1 win for Barcelona, people have as usual got carried away. Calls for the new European champions to be recognised as football's 'best ever side' have emerged, thanks largely to the incredible number of goals scored by the club's front three this year.

For me, this is frankly ludicrous. I'll go into this in more detail later, but far from the being the best side to play football, they're not even the best side I've seen in my lifetime. In fact, they're not even the best Barcelona side I've seen in my lifetime!

Though much has been made of this current side, my favourite Barcelona side remains the Champions League winners of 2009. Managed by Pep Guardiola, this side had matched the feat of the current Barca team, winning La Liga and the Copa del Rey ahead of the meeting with Manchester United in Rome.

Here, it's worth outlining the opposition that the two sides faced. Though Juventus certainly do have some talented players - Tevez, Pirlo, Buffon and Marchisio to name a few - there are a number that are certainly past their best. This was absolutely not the case for the 2009 side. In Manchester United, they had a side that had run away with the English league (and anyone who's watched a season will tell you how difficult that is - unlike Italy), and contained players in their prime. Defensively, the likes of Evra, Vidic and Ferdinand were all seen as being at the pinnacle of the game, and going forward, the side had an embarrassment of riches, with Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez forming a formidable partnership, not unlike the current Barca trio.

Despite this, Barcelona simply destroyed United, with Xavi and Iniesta toying with them in the midfield before letting Lionel Messi and Samuel Eto'o take over. Though the final score was only 2-0, it could and perhaps should have been many more, with United unable to penetrate the defence.

Whether that side is my favourite because of the football they played and the fact that a treble was unprecedented for Spanish sides at the time, or simply because they picked apart a Manchester United side that I was thoroughly sick of watching win, I'm not sure. Either way, it cannot be disputed that they were comfortably the best side in the world at that moment - but is that true of the Barcelona side of today?

I'd argue not. I know they say that the best side over 38 games wins the league, so perhaps this Barcelona side is better than Real Madrid. But it is worth noting that only a spectacular collapse from Carlo Ancelotti's men in the mid-season, following an incredible 22-game winning streak, handed Barca the Spanish title. I'd strongly suggest that had the furore around Gareth Bale and his unpopularity with the fans not potentially upset the morale surrounding the squad and the feel-good factor at the club, Real Madrid would be sitting here with three trophies, and we'd be calling for them to be instated as the best team in the world.

I'd also argue that, although they were soundly beaten in the Nou Camp, Bayern Munich have a better squad that the Catalans. They had to complete their two legged tie without the assistance of either Arjen Robben or Franck Ribery, two of the best wingers in the world - imagine if Barca had to go on without both Luis Suarez or Neymar. I can't imagine if the roles had been reversed, we would have seen anything other than a German victory.

So clearly, proclaiming the current side as the best ever to grace the game of football is a tad premature. But to be fair, how many of the current Barcelona side would get into the sides of either 2009 or 2011? Who would I pick as my best Barcelona team of the last six years?

Goalkeeper - Victor Valdes (2011), Right Back - Dani Alves (2011), Centre Back - Carles Puyol (2009), Centre Back - Gerard Pique (2009), Left Back - Jordi Alba (2015), Defensive Midfield - Yaya Toure (2009), Centre Midfield - Xavi (2009), Centre Midfield - Andres Iniesta (2011), Left Wing - Neymar (2015), Centre Forward - Lionel Messi (2011), Right Wing - Luis Suarez (2015)

So with only three players in my best Barcelona team of the best six years, is the current side the best of all time? No. Also, to assume that a Barcelona side of within the previous decade is to totally ignore the incredible club sides put together by Real Madrid in the early 2000's, including the likes of Zidane, Figo, Ronaldo, Beckham and Roberto Carlos, Arsenal's 'Invincibles' team of 2002/2003 or (annoyingly) Manchester United's treble-winning team in 1999. It also neglects the incredible national teams that have been created - think of Spain's 2010 World Cup winners, or the Brazilian sides in either 2002, with the three Rs of Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho, or the side recognised as the greatest World Cup team, the Brazilian team of 1970 including Pele, Jairzinho, Carlos Alberto and Rivellino.

However, the 122 goals scored by Messi, Neymar and Suarez this season cannot be ignored. They certainly have a claim to be the best strike force of all time, but to create an extension to the rest of the team is unfair. Become the first side ever to retain the Champions League next season, as well as completing another domestic and European treble with the same group of players, and then we'll talk.

Half Time Report: European Round-Up

Having mainly focused on the Premier League in my blog, it can almost seem like I don't acknowledge the existence of any other leagues! However, while the English leagues continue on through the winter, many of the main European leagues take a nice break for Christmas. This makes it easy for me to do a succinct, but hopefully useful, roundup of some of the key leagues around the continent, looking at the title battle, the challenge for the European places and the threat of relegation.

Spain

Title

After last year's shocking finale which saw Atletico Madrid usurp the Clasico pair to claim the title, the first time that neither Barcelona or Real Madrid had claimed the title since Valencia's win a decade previously, it's been an interesting opening five months to this year.

Unsurprisingly, given the money spent by both Barcelona and Real Madrid, the pair have returned to the summit so far this season, with Madrid leading the Catalans by a single point with a game in hand. However, the reigning champions have refused to give up, with Atletico just a point behind their neighbours, albeit having played two games more. They may be on the back foot this year, but they seem intent on challenging once more.

Europe

It's all the usual suspects once more, with Sevilla currently in the Champions League spot and Valencia and Villarreal occupying the Europa League places. The only shock is the sudden demise of Athletic Bilbao. Having beaten Sevilla to the final Champions League place last year, Los Leones find themselves only 12th so far this year, and are unlikely to be in the shake-up come the end of the season.

Relegation

Realistically, anywhere from 13th down could be considered to be included in the relegation scrap, with Getafe separated from bottom side Cordoba by just six points. At the minute, Elche and Grenada join Cordoba in the relegation zone, with Levante and David Moyes's Real Sociedad, after an appalling start to the season, clinging on above them. I'm sensing numerous changes in the second half of the season as teams jostle for position, and a run of two or three straight victories may see them out of danger.

Germany

Title

Arguably the most one-sided league in Europe. Following a few years of competition involving Borussia Dortmund, with even a title for Wolfsburg, Bayern Munich have made the Bundesliga title their own in recent years. With the Bavarian side currently unbeaten this year, drawing just three games and conceding only four goals, they lead second-placed Wolfsburg by an unassailable 11 points. It's now more a case of when and not if.

Europe

The real race is for second place, with Wolfsburg separated from 9th place Eintracht Frankfurt by as many points as from Bayern the other way. In reality, the Wolves look strong favourites to cement a place in the Champions League. Other than them, the race is incredibly tight, with 3rd to 8th separated by just four points. With their pedigree, you'd always fancy Bayer Leverkusen to make the top four, but any one of Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach, Augsburg, Hoffenheim or Hannover could sneak into the final spot, with two of the remaining four being entered into the Europa League.

Relegation

Here is where the biggest shock in Europe lies. Despite having won a pair of titles less than five years ago, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in the relegation zone. With players like Mats Hummels and Marco Reus, there is no way they should remain in this predicament, however, their away form abysmal at present, there is no guarantee that they won't get sucked in. Other than that, any of the bottom half of the table could find themselves in trouble come the end of the year, with Werder Bremen, currently in the relegation playoff spot, separated from 10th placed Paderborn by just two points. This is going to be another tight battle.

France

Title

Despite all of the pre-season talk of a Paris-Saint Germain procession with the demise of Monaco, it hasn't gone entirely according to plan for Raymond Blanc's side. Trailing Marseille by three points, and Lyon by two, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani have yet to reach the highs that we saw last year. Though I do expect them to eventually triumph, Marseille have performed exceptionally well this season, with Pierre Andre Gignac and Florian Thavin singled out for particular praise. 

Europe

With Monaco slightly off the pace of the top teams, the four top places are likely to be the three currently challenging for the title and Saint Etienne, though the order is yet to be conclusively decided. The way the form table is going, I would predict a top four of PSG, Marseille, Lyon and Saint Etienne, but there is still much to be decided.

Relegation

As with a number of Europe's top leagues, this is set to be the largest battle this season. With Caen currently being cut away slightly at the bottom, trailing 17th place Metz by four points already, the difference between Evian in 18th and Nice in 11th is just three. The biggest surprise of the bottom half is European regulars Lille. Despite qualifying for this season's Europa League, Les Dogues have struggled in the league, currently languishing in 18th place. Though I suspect they have more than enough quality to drag themselves away from trouble, it is still a worrying time for their supporters, and put themselves under considerable pressure for the remainder of the season.

Italy

Title

Not quite as sewn up as Germany, but Juventus should be considered the strong favourites. Though they may only lead by three points from Roma, they have shown that they have the experience and ability to convert a lead to championships. If Juventus don't win it, I don't see anyone other than Roma claiming the Scudetto, though.

Europe

Behind the leading pair, a gap of nine points goes back to a trio of teams, and with only a further three points back to 8th place, this is set to be the biggest battle we see this season. Lazio currently occupy the final Champions League place, but with considerable European experience behind them in Napoli, Sampdoria, Genoa, Milan and Fiorentina, I expect to see many twists and turns in this battle going forward. 

Relegation

Surprisingly, this seems to be the only league where relegation is a little more cut and dried. With Parma and Cesena on just six and nine points respectively, they look dead and buried. The only real dispute is over the final spot, currently occupied by Cagliari. With a number of teams congregated on 17 points, five clear of the drop, I'm expecting to see a couple sucked into the struggle come the end of the year.

While it's been an interesting season in the Premier League, we're seeing all of Europe's leagues have prizes being hotly contested. Though in some, the largest honour is not really being contested, there are interesting dynamics being played out across Europe. With a long time to go in the season, there is still much to be decided, particularly involving the qualification for European competition next year.

Half Time Report: Surprise Packages and the Return of an Old Nemesis?

In a series I'm going to call my Half Time Report, I'll look at the key trends we've seen so far this season, both in England and abroad. Let's start with the Premier League. Suffice it to say, it's been an interesting first half of the season. As predicted at the beginning, champions Manchester City and Jose Mourinho's rebuilt Chelsea are heavily involved in the race for the title, while both the Champions League places and the fight to avoid the drop are bitterly and closely contested. So, in the opening 19 games, what have been the key trends we have witnessed? What will we remember the first half of the 2014/15 season for?

A pair of surprise packages
Over recent years, we often see a team defy all the odds to fly up the table in the first half of the season - Wigan did it, Hull did it and even City did it once upon a time. However, never do I recall seeing two teams far exceed expectations. However, following the mass exodus at Southampton, they were expected to struggle considerably, with some even tipping them for relegation. But Ronald Koeman, like Mauricio Pochettino, and even Nigel Adkins before him, has taken the Saints far beyond the level expected of them. A number of exceptional signings, including Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle, had forced Southampton to the brink of the title race, before a dip in form leaves them JUST fourth at the end of 2014!

However, they are not the season's only surprise package. And, in my mind, West Ham's sudden incline in league positions is a far bigger surprise. Southampton have been incredibly impressive, but they have an almost entirely new squad. As I witnessed with Manchester City's incredible revival under Sven Goran Eriksson, the element of surprise can work in your favour for a while. However, to add just a handful of names to a safe mid-table side and fire yourself up the table is exceptional, and that is exactly what Sam Allardyce has produced at the Hammers. Both Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho look to be inspirational signings, while the huge improvement in form of Andy Carroll and Stuart Downing has been great to watch. Though I'm not sure I agree that their target should now be the top 4, it has been an incredible start to the season for the East London club, and they will be hoping they can continue that momentum for the remainder.

A surprising leniency for managers (until recently...)
Now, I may well just be so used to the revolving door policy at most football clubs today, but surely there's normally been about five managerial casualties by now? The fact that two (maybe three if you count Pardew seemingly about to switch to the vacant job at Palace) managers have only left their posts within the last week or so is surprising to me. However, I'm not going to be suggesting we are seeing a change in attitudes around football clubs - it's normally the case that once one leaves it's a mass exodus, which I expect around February time!

Nevertheless, the lack of constant conspiracy and rumour is only a good thing when it comes to football managers, as it only tends to distract from the most important thing: the game itself.

It's like no-one wants the final Champions League spot
At the beginning of the season, I had the battle for the top four down to any two of Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham. However, only one of these sides has had any consistency this season, with each of the other four having inexplicable results and severe downturns in form. Liverpool, following the form that saw them run Manchester City to the final day of the season for the title last year, have struggled to replace Luis Suarez's goals (although his disruptive presence in the dressing room is more than taken care of by Mario Balotelli!). Arsenal have been incredibly unfortunate with injuries, but have looked susceptible at the back, and have relied too heavily on Alexis Sanchez to either score or create a game-changing moment.

Everton and Spurs have both had the same problem - consistently inconsistent. Though Spurs have been getting continuously better throughout the season, they started appallingly - particularly at White Hart Lane. Similarly, Everton have had real dark spells, but their form has seemingly slipped from an initially reasonable beginning. The form players from last year like Lukaku and Barkley have yet to click into top gear, and as a result, the team has failed to hit the same heights.

With the arrival of West Ham and Southampton into the mix for the European spots this year, the battle for the prestigious 4th place promises to be an incredibly closely contested affair, and I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if the race went to the final day - perhaps between more than two sides!

The Return of the Sith
However, I have to finish with a Star Wars analogy. Following a year in the wilderness, taking time to rebuild and come back stronger, a new dark red force is emerging in the Premier League. Though not yet as strong as we have once seen them, they are threatening to return to their full potential in the near future. For those of you that didn't understand that, I am of course talking about Manchester United. Under the guidance of Louis van Gaal, the Red Devils started appallingly, registering their lowest Premier League tally of points for the opening 10 games. However, since then the club has gone on a run of nine Premier League games unbeaten (although some may argue slightly fortuitously against the likes of Southampton and Arsenal), pushing them back not only into the top four race, but on the cusp of the title chase.

However, I will suggest this, and it's something that football fans are notoriously bad at - don't run before you can walk. Be glad with where you are - 3rd place would represent an excellent season for van Gaal after the Moyes debacle last year. Having seemingly spent their way back into Europe's elite  for next year, it seems only a matter of time before United are back challenging for major honours. Until that moment, the rest of the Premier League can continue to watch their back four perform like Bambi on ice at times!

It's been an interesting opening half to the Premier League season, but with a number of interesting dynamics set to play out over the busy New Year period and beyond, 2015 should be an incredibly interesting time for Premier League football.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.

Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.

Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.

Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.

Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).

For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.

I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.

After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)

As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.

For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.

Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.

Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.

I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.

After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)

With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.

This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.

End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)

So what of my prediction?

Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?

UEFA Champions League Draw: Fairness or Retain the Status Quo?

                             Today was the day in which Europe's elite learnt their fate for the next few months of continental competition. For some, this was considerably more daunting than others. With the way in which the groups are determined, plenty of good sides end up with with groups far harder than others, which some people have argued is unfair. This post will explain the current way of determining the 'pots', and analyse its fairness based on the accusations made of it. I will then try and give another viable alternative to the current system, that could work out in a fairer way. Finally, I will examine the current season's groups, assessing the relative difficulty of them, and who is likely to progress.

                               If we begin with the way in which the groups are drawn, it is first important to explain some of the relevant terminology. The way European competitions are drawn is this: the sides are divided into four seeded 'pots'. Each group will have one team from each of the four 'pots'. Rules also dictate that teams from the same country cannot meet one another in the group stages, often leading to a set of complicated circumstances. However, the most complex of the issues is how the 'pots' are decided, that is, which teams are placed into which 'pots'. With the exception of the holders, who automatically go into pot 1, the way in which this is determined is by the 'European Club Coefficients'. This is calculated from two sets of data. The most important of these is the previous European results in each of the last 5 seasons. A team receives a number of points for qualifying for the Champions League group stage (4), and more for subsequent wins and draws whilst in the competition (2 and 1). Should the side reach the last 16, a further 5 points are added, and an extra point is added for every round they progress past that point. This contributes for 80% of the overall coefficient. The other 20% consists of the club's 'association coefficient', meaning that the league in which the side plays contributes to their overall coefficient. Combined, these create a system in which teams can be ranked and, from this, pots and subsequently groups are decided.

                                However, arguments have been raised that this system of determining groups is flawed and militates against up-and-coming clubs, whilst allowing established mediocre clubs to retain their status. There are several examples of this, and especially in recent years. Firstly, the treatment of Manchester City in the Champions League draw in comparison to their English counterparts. In both of their previous seasons in this competition, they have been awarded 'groups of death'. In their inaugural season, they faced the German giants and eventual finalists Bayern Munich, Italy's high-flying Napoli side and Spain's dangerous Villareal. Year 2, if anything, got even harder, pairing City with three fellow champions of their respective leagues. Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax is a ridiculously tough group, and one that may well have unfairly been dealt. Had that group occurred in City's first season, when they had zero European experience, and had only managed to finish 3rd in the Premier League, it would have been excusable. As a result we can write off the first season as an unfortunate by-product of their inexperience. However, after a year in which they narrowly missed out on qualification from the toughest group in the competition, and claimed their domestic league title, I think the second year group is absurd. If we compare their plight to the fortune that Arsenal usually receive, we see a startling contrast. Arsenal, although they have qualified for the Champions League every year for the last 15 years, have not threatened to win the competition in the 5 years measured by the coefficient. In terms of their league form, they have made a habit of scraping a 4th place finish in recent years. As league form is not taken into account, Arsenal are consistently placed in the 1st pot, ensuring that they receive a greater chance of progression from the group stages. I believe this is incredibly unfair, as it somewhat undermines the idea of 'Champions' League. If those who finish 4th are placed in a vastly easier group to the league champions, what is the point of winning the domestic competition?

                                 In case you just think that this is a City fan out for a bit of a rant, I will cover a couple more examples. What this system appears to do is not account for who has the best team, and judge accordingly. I accept this would be incredibly difficult to do in a way that is not already covered. For example, good sides in poor leagues can often rest players in their domestic campaigns and still win, guaranteeing qualification for next season, and ensuring that the entirety of their focus is on getting out of their group. Sides like Ukraine's Shakhtar Donetsk typify this, as they were placed in Pot 2 this time around, despite most agreeing that most of Pot 3 were also better than the Eastern Europeans. In the last couple of years, Celtic have attempted this, with it coming to fruition last season. If we compare this with non-champion sides from highly competitive leagues, we see another unfair area. Looking at Napoli in particular, they were unable to rest any of their top players in their domestic league or the Champions League campaign of 2 years ago, inevitably taking its toll on one. For the side from Naples, this took its toll on their league form, meaning that they failed to qualify for the following year's competition. This has a disastrous effect on their coefficient, ensuring that they receive a far tougher group than the sides from easier leagues.

                                 Finally, for those who are interested in conspiracy theories, or just really dislike Michel Platini (the second of which I probably fit into), there is another criticism of the system. As the coefficients are decided by UEFA themselves, which Platini heads, he arguably could be biased one way or another. Given his hypocrisies over the spending of English clubs whilst exonerating his own Paris Saint Germain side, it seems an odd coincidence that PSG, who have had minimal European experience over the last few years, and only reached the quarter-finals last time around, have moved into Pot 2 this season, whilst last-years finalists Borussia Dortmund, who also have a stronger European pedigree, remain stuck in Pot 3. Whether this is truly a sign of corruption, or simply an insufficient prize given to those that progress to the latter stages, it is difficult to tell. As much as I would like Platini to be dethroned and disgraced, I think that the system simply fails to adequately reward the semi finalists and finalists.

                                    Looking at the system, I would change it in the following ways to rectify some of the problems listed above. Firstly, the coefficient system as a whole is not a bad idea, however, I feel the 80:20 ratio of European to domestic competition is too much. I think 70:30 or even 65:35 would be more appropriate to prevent the smaller teams resting players and gaining an unfair advantage. I also think that the top leagues' champions should also be guaranteed places in the top 2 pots. This would prevent the unfair treatment of teams like City, and would also prevent just top 4 sides like Arsenal constantly being placed in the top pots. I do not advocate placing champions all in pot 1, as that completely ignores previous European experience, but the top 2 leaves sufficient wiggle room. Finally, I would also scale down the bonus for getting out of the group to 3, and then add 1 point for every round negotiated, and 5 to the eventual runner-up. This will allow those that have been most successful in the previous campaign to reap the full reward for their efforts. Though I am certain that this system would have alternative problems, I am sure that it would solve many of the current ones.

                                    The result of this system is this year's draw, which has shown the benefits and problems with the current system. Based on the club coefficients, pot 1 consisted of holders Bayern Munich, along with Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Benfica and Porto. Pot 2 had Atletico Madrid, Schalke 04, CSKA Moscow, AC Milan, Marseille, Shakhtar Donetsk, Paris Saint Germain and Juventus. In Pot 3 was Manchester City, Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Basle, Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiakos and Zenit Saint Petersburg. Finally, Pot 4 had Real Sociedad, FC Copenhagen, Viktoria Plzen, Celtic, Steaua Bucharesti, Anderlecht, Napoli and Austria Vienna.

Group A: Manchester United, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bayer Leverkusen, Real Sociedad
                   Not the easiest group, but by no means the hardest. After the second pot was drawn, fans of Manchester United and David Moyes would have been very happy. The final two sides will make life difficult for the new United manager. I would still expect the English champions to get out of the group, but there may well be one or two bumps along the way. Bayer Leverkusen would be my tip for second, unless United have another 2011/2012 style capitulation.

Group B: Real Madrid, Juventus, Galatasaray, Copenhagen
                     A case of three into two doesn't go in this group, with Copenhagen seemingly destined for the nul point mark. Despite Galatasaray's impressive performances against Madrid last season, I expect them to be the side that has to exit. As for the winner of the group, I think a Madrid side consisting of Bale, Ronaldo, Casillas, Benzema et al will have enough, but I expect it to be a close run thing with Juve.

Group C: Benfica, Paris Saint Germain, Olympiakos, Anderlecht
                      One of the contenders for easiest group of the night, with PSG the likely beneficiaries. After another summer spending spree, the Parisians should find this group fairly straight-forward, leaving Olympiakos and Benfica to fight it out over the final qualifying position. Benfica get my vote, with the previous experience of Champions League qualification vital.

Group D: Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, Manchester City, Viktoria Plzen
                      Though the holders will present a challenge, this is a considerably easier group than either of the two previous draws for the English side. With the quality they have in their ranks, I fully expect them to get themselves out of the group stage for the first time, though perhaps only as runners-up. I expect that escaping the group is the expectation this year, with anything else seen as a bonus. Bayern should win the group, and I wouldn't bet against them reaching a third consecutive final.

Group E: Chelsea, Schalke 04, Basel, Steaua Bucharesti
                        Probably my pick for easiest group, with Chelsea the firm favourites to progress as winners. Schalke only qualified in 4th place in Germany, and the other two have come from less well know footballing nations. I expect the Germans to join the Londoners in the last 16, but I wouldn't be surprised if either of the other two upset the apple cart a little.

Group F: Arsenal, Marseille, Borussia Dortmund, Napoli
                         Certainly a contender for the hardest group of the night, with all four coming from competitive footballing nations. Though the Gunners were top seeds, I would not be at all surprised to see them fall at the first hurdle this time around. The pedigree and experience of the Borussia Dortmund side, along with the expensively assembled and impressive Napoli outfit will present an incredibly difficult test. Without significant spending on improvements, I think this could be the first English side out of this year's Champions League.

Group G: Porto, Atletico Madrid, Zenit Saint Petersburg, Austria Vienna
                            Though not the toughest group, this has the potential to be one of the most intriguing. All three of the top pots have the realistic potential to make it through, and though one would expect Austria Vienna to perish, they could be the APOEL Nicosia of this season.

Group H: Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic
                              And we finish with the hardest group of them all. As Neil Lennon visibly sunk into his chair at the announcement of his team's participation in this group, this said all that needed to be said about the state of Group H. Unlike others, which will have a handful of interesting fixtures, this group has the potential to have an enthralling game every time (especially if Celtic perform against Barcelona the way they did last time around!)

                                        
                                      The draw for this season's Champions League has thrown up a few gems, with a couple of classics in the offing. I do hope that the hardest groups live up to expectation, and we genuinely see the best 16 teams in the competition progress. Unfortunately, thanks to the coefficient system, I fear that this will not be the case.
                                     

2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Champions League)

          This week marked the announcement of the fixtures for the 2013/14 Premier League. Using the initial fixture list, this week I will be doing a series of four blog posts. The first three concern the potential impact of the fixtures on the races for the title, the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. In the final post in the series, I will be uploading a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, designed to allow people to get involved in my annual predictions competition. In this second, I will be assessing the fixture list, and analysing its potential impact upon the race for the final Champions League spot. This race has been fiercely fought over the last few years, with the rewards for qualifying particularly lucrative. Based on the last few years, it is relatively safe to assume that the primary contenders for the 4th place spot this year will be Arsenal, Tottenham and possibly Liverpool. Whilst I accept that anomalies may occur (Newcastle in 2012 springs to mind), these are incredibly difficult to predict, even with the influence of the fixtures. Nevertheless, where possible I will try, but I will be predominantly focusing on the three expected contenders.

         Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.

        Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.

        The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.

         Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.

         Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.

         Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.

          Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.