Borussia Dortmund: The Ultimate Game of Two Halves?

After a frankly appalling start to the Bundesliga season, there were many that were secretly tipping Borussia Dortmund for the drop this year. I was not one of them, but we'll get to that later. Having lost 10 of the opening 17 games in the league, Dortmund entered the winter break heavily entrenched in a relegation dog-fight. However, despite a home defeat to high flying Augsburg immediately after the break, the BVB have fought back, winning impressively away at Freiburg and at home to Mainz in their last two outings - just the second time Dortmund have won back to back games in the league this season.

It's important to put this collapse into perspective. Just four years ago, Dortmund won the first of two Bundesliga titles, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels and Mario Gotze playing integral roles. It's not even like there has been an obvious decline since, with the BVB reaching their first Champions League final in 2013, seeing off the likes of Real Madrid along the way, and finishing emphatic runners-up to Bayern Munich in the two seasons since their last title wins. To see them in the relegation zone come Christmas then was a considerable shock, and led to significant head-scratching over the poor performances.

As I mentioned at the start, tongues were even wagging to suggest the imminent relegation of the previous title winners, particularly due to the fact that they could seem to buy a win at home. This was most evident in October, when Dortmund failed to take a single point from their five games, including demoralising defeats at home to relegation rivals Hamburg and Hannover. The statistics for the first half of the season were astonishing for a team of their standard. Just four wins. Just 18 goals. And just 15 points. But why were they so bad?

Much has been said about Dortmund's unfortunate injury list, and it's certainly true that they have not had the luck of the green. At one time or another, they have been without Roman Weidenfeller, Lukas Pisczek, Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Ilkay Gundogan, Lars Bender, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Marco Reus, Ciro Immobile and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. However, even without these, it's not as though they have a particularly poor team. Certainly they have not been without all of them for the whole period. So let's take the most important five out - Weidenfeller, Hummels, Gundogan, Reus and Aubameyang. That would still leave a team of Langerak, Schmelzer, Subotic, Ginter, Durm, Bender, Kagawa, Mkhitaryan, Blaszcyowski, Ramos, Immobile - certainly good enough for mid-table at worst!

This leads me to my core argument behind the poor form, and the reason why I never believed they would be relegated. The demise of Dortmund simply demonstrates the significance of momentum in top-level football. We've seen this in the Premier League this year with Southampton in the positive sense, but nowhere has there been a better example of the reverse than at Signal Iduna Park. One loss tends to breed another, and unless you have a reaction quickly, you almost get into the habit of performing poorly again and again. Perhaps this is due to the additional pressure that is placed on every game, but whatever it is, it certainly would explain Dortmund's performances. This would also explain the relatively strong performances in Europe, as the pressure would be taken off for the Champions League games, and heaped on when they returned to domestic football.

So, with the BVB seemingly on the up with the pair of Bundesliga victories since the resumption of the season, are we about to see the most extreme example of the old footballing cliche: a game of two halves? The winter break seems to have enabled Dortmund to take stock and recharge, and have come back fresh. So, with that being said, what is a realistic aim? If we assume that I am correct, and Dortmund are in no significant danger of relegation, how high can they go? As we have seen, the four wins that Werder Bremen have enjoyed have lifted the side from the relegation zone to eighth, so the bottom half of the table is certainly close. As a result, I see no reason that Borussia Dortmund cannot make that spot their own.

However, beyond that, it is difficult to see them breaking into the European spots. There is a 12 point gap between Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach who currently occupy third place, which I feel would require the BVB to win almost all of their games to overhaul. A tricky task, and one that I just cannot anticipate. In my opinion, it's sixth at best for Dortmund, though I'm sure that Jurgen Klopp would accept tenth!

The significant problem that I foresee for Dortmund is keeping hold of some of their top players. With Champions League football for next season nothing more than a pipe dream, the likes of Reus, Hummels and Aubameyang could be heading for the exit door to pursue their careers from next season, which could have a significant impact on the long term future of Dortmund. It's certainly going to be an interesting one to watch for the remainder of this season and over the summer.

2013 Champions League Final: Who Needs Guardiola?

            London was invaded by Germany tonight, with an estimated 150,000 making their way from the continent. Their intention: to watch arguably the most prestigious game in European football, the Champions League final. Hosted at Wembley for the 2^nd time in three seasons, Europe’s most valuable tournament has once again provided twists, turns and plenty of shocks on the way to the finale. After a gruelling 9 months of European competition, only Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund were left standing, giving the first ever all German Champions League final. My earlier blog post ‘Germany 11-3 Spain’ asks whether this indicates a significant shift away from the traditionally dominant Spaniards, as this season more than many others has seen German clubs coming to the fore. In the German league, Munich romped away to claim the title in early April, ending a full 25 points clear of their nearest rivals, Dortmund. This gave them the tag of comfortable favourites going into this final, though as we have seen in recent Wembley and Champions League finals, that tag ultimately means nothing.

 

                As far as each of their Champions League campaigns are concerned, both have had to do it the hard way. Borussia Dortmund in particular, as they were involved in what had been labelled the ‘Group of Death’, with the league champions from each of Spain, England and Holland as their opponents. Dortmund performed above all expectations in the group stages, finishing as group winners. A tricky tie against Shakhtar Donetsk followed, with a nervy 2-2 draw in Ukraine being followed up by an emphatic 3-0 home win to see the Germans through. The pivotal moment in the whole of Dortmund’s campaign came in the Quarter Final against Malaga. After a dull 0-0 draw in Spain, the Germans fell behind twice in the return leg, only for Dortmund to stage an injury time comeback, reminiscent of Manchester United’s famous 1999 final success over Bayern Munich, to win 3-2. A 4-1 home demolition of the great Real Madrid in the Semi Final first leg made the world sit up and take notice, and whilst the Germans had to withstand an anxious last ten minutes, they held firm to qualify for their first Champions League final since 1996.

 

                Bayern Munich, in comparison, had arguably a far easier group. Nevertheless, they still had to win it, which they did (albeit on results between themselves and Valencia), setting up a Last 16 game against Arsenal. A brilliant 3-1 win at the Emirates set themselves up nicely, only to nearly collapse in the return leg, being lucky to progress on away goals after a 0-2 defeat. A more comfortable victory in the Quarter Final followed, with the Bavarians winning both legs 2-0 to set up a semi final with Catalan giants Barcelona. An astonishing home leg scoreline, as the Germans blew the favourites for the title away, winning 4-0. Even more astonishing was the result the following week, as Munich went to the Nou Camp and thoroughly outplayed the Spaniards, winning 3-0 to cap a resounding 7-0 aggregate victory and taking them into their second consecutive Champions League final. Jupp Heynckes, the Munich manager, having already led his side to resounding victory in the league, can justifiably feel hard done by, having been given his notice in January to make way for Pep Guardiola from the start of this season. The prospective treble seemed like the perfect leading present, and the best way to show the Munich board that they may have made the wrong decision in replacing him.

 

                In the weeks leading up to the final, bad blood erupted between the two clubs, as Bayern announced the signing of Dortmund playmaker Mario Gotze for the start of the following season. This led to a slanging match in the press over the course of several days, with insults being thrown from both camps. This was exacerbated by a league game between the pair, where Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp had a major disagreement with the Bayern bench, almost coming to blows on the touchline. Further Munich pursuits of Dortmund talisman Robert Lewandowski further stoked the atmosphere before the Wembley final, where Munich would be desperate to avoid the heartbreak dished out, at the Allianz, against Chelsea in last season’s final.

 

                 The game began at a ferocious pace, with Dortmund pressurising the ball at every opportunity. Thanks to this, Dortmund looked the more dangerous of the two sides in the opening half hour, with firstly Lewandowski, and then Marko Reus testing Manuel Neuer. Sven Bender also found himself in space in the Munich area, but the defensive midfielder failed to connect properly, allowing Neuer to collect comfortably. After this, Munich found their feet, with Mario Mandzukic’s header being brilliantly kept out by Dortmund keeper Roman Weidenfeller. After this, the two best chances of the first half fell to Arjen Robben. The first came to him rather fortuitously, with a deflected pass putting the Dutchman in. Unfortunately for the Bavarians, Robben could only hit the big Dortmund keeper. A similar outcome just a few minutes later, with a slip by Mats Hummels letting in the usually predatory Robben, but once again, the face of Weidenfeller prevented the winger from breaking the deadlock. Robert Lewandowski’s late chance showed that Dortmund were by no means out of the contest, but the first half ended goalless.

 

                The second half began in vastly the same way as the first, with Dortmund pressurising Munich’s every move. However, unlike the previous half, they failed to create any decent openings, leaving Mario Mandzukic to tap Munich into the leader after some good work from Arjen Robben. The goal shocked Dortmund into action, and just 8 minutes later, they had a chance to respond. A clumsy Dante challenge on Marko Reus gave Ilkay Gundogan the chance to level matters from the spot. The German, replacing Lewandowski as penalty taker after the Pole’s miss in the league game against Neuer a few weeks ago, made no mistake, sending the Bayern keeper the wrong way. After this, the game became increasingly stretched, with chances arriving thick and fast at both ends. A brilliant Neven Subotic goalline clearance prevented Bayern’s Thomas Muller from putting the Bavarians back into the lead, before Robert Lewandowski had a stunning 30 yard strike correctly disallowed for handball. However, as the game entered the final ten minutes, Dortmund were under increasing pressure from the German champions. Eventually, the pressure told, as Robben got on the end of a clever Ribery through ball to slide the ball past Weidenfeller and send the crowd behind the Dortmund goal wild. With only two minutes to go, Dortmund had no time for a response, meaning that Bayern collected their fifth European Cup.

 

                 Having successfully exorcised their demons from last year’s final, Bayern Munich ran out deserving winners at Wembley tonight. Over the course of the season, they can certainly make a claim to being Europe’s best club, a claim that is only strengthened with the addition of this silverware. A fantastic way for Jupp Heynckes to sign off as Munich manager, and with a domestic cup final still to come, the prospect of an historic treble looms large. Certainly a herculean task for Pep Guardiola to reproduce, and a decision that Bayern bosses will now be wondering about.