PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Swansea City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland

Last season
Certainty a season of what might have been. After a promising start from the Swans, with new signing Andre Ayew particularly impressing, they went downhill rapidly in the mid-season, falling into the relegation zone as we entered December. This ultimately cost Garry Monk his job, with Francisco Guidolin his eventual replacement.

Under the tutelage of the Italian, the Welsh side climbed slowly up the table, with impressive wins at The Emirates and at home to Chelsea. A 1-1 draw with Manchester City on the final day sent the Swans 12th, a good achievement given the circumstances at the turn of the year.

Backroom setup
Swansea fans will be glad to hear that Guidolin will be retained as manager for the upcoming year, meaning that the important changes will be made to the on-field staff.

Pre-season
Easiest way to describe this is simple. Whereas other sides have focused more on creating challenging matches, the Swans seem to have looked towards eminently winnable games, and as such picked up 5 from 6. Starting in the US, Swansea beat third tier side Charlotte Independence 4-0, before ending up on the end of a 2-0 reverse to Richmond Kickers, again in the US third division.

Having returned to the UK, Swansea took a short trip around England to face some of our lower league sides. A 5-1 win at Bristol Rovers, which saw five goals from different scorers, was followed by a 3-0 win at Swindon and a 4-0 win at Wolves, with Wayne Routledge bagging a brace. The Swans final game saw them return to the Liberty, securing a narrow 1-0 win over French side Stade Rennais, but unlike many of their key rivals, have yet to be really tested.

Squad and signings
Their case will not have been aided by the sale of all of their recognised strikers from last season. Having made it very clear that Bafetimbi Gomis would be leaving to Marseille on loan, while Euro 2016 winner Eder (Lille), Alberto Paloschi (Atalanta), and most notably Andre Ayew (West Ham, £20.5m), Swansea have been left very threadbare up front. The Welsh club have also lost their captain, with Ashley Williams being charged with replacing Everton's John Stones for a £12m fee.

In fairness, the Swans have certainly been active in the transfer market, bringing in two headline strikers in Fernando Llorente from Sevilla and Borja Baston from Atletico Madrid for £15.5m. In addition, Swansea have added on-loan midfielder Leroy Fer and Dutch defender Mike van der Voorn to their squad as they look to build strength in depth.

Tactics
It's difficult to say given all the changes made over the summer, but certainly Francisco Guidolin will not want to abandon the tactics that kept Swansea in the Premier League. As with Bafetimbi Gomis, we are likely to see the Swans continue to employ the target man tactic when it comes to Llorente, while looking for Borja Baston to feed off the big Spaniard.

Predictions

Swansea's season could all come down to have they start. Having lost so many of their key players over the last few years, I don't see the Swans keeping their head above water. There is always one shock relegation every year, and I see Swansea being that team.

Final position: 18th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Crystal Palace

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley

Last season
After a start that promised much, the 2015/16 league season will go down as a great disappointment for the Eagles, ending in 15th place, despite the presence of stars like Yannick Bolasie, Wilfried Zaha and Yohan Cabaye. Though Alan Pardew will point to two visits to Wembley in the FA Cup, narrowly missing out to Manchester United, an improvement in the league will be required this year.

Backroom setup
Despite the vacant England post undoubtedly turning his head, Palace retain the services of Alan Pardew, with coaches and other backroom staff remaining the same.

Pre-season
I think the best way to describe the six warm-up matches is underwhelming. Just three wins yielded from these games, against US second division side Cincinnati and at English lower league sides Colchester and AFC Wimbledon, the latter pair by just the single goal. The Eagles' tour of the US also contained two games against MLS teams, with draws against Vancouver Whitecaps and Philadelphia Union.

Despite a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Fulham, who narrowly avoided relegation from the Championship last year, the pre-season ended well for the London club, picking up wins against Bromley and, most impressively, Valencia as they built some much needed momentum.

Squad and signings
It's been a real clearing out job at Crystal Palace, with a number of old mainstays either being released or sold. Top of the bill is the £10m sale of Dwight Gayle to recently relegated Newcastle, with free transfers for Adrian Mariappa, Marouane Chamakh, Emmanuel Adebayor and Brede Hangeland.

In their place, the scouts at Palace have more than done their job with a couple of excellent signings. James Tomkins, the captain of West Ham United, was recruited for £10m, while Andros Townsend moved from Newcastle in a £13m deal. The best, however, was the free transfer of ex-France international goalkeeper Steve Mandanda, who is certainly more than capable of saving a few points!

Tactics
With the signing of Townsend, as well as the plethora of wingers already at the club, with the likes of Bolasie, Zaha and Puncheon, it would come as little surprise that I feel that utilising the width will bring the greatest reward for Palace. While Cabaye will continue to pull the strings in the middle of the park, it will be up to those flair players to create the majority of the chances and goals. However, they could use a 20-25 goal a season striker, as Connor Wickham and Fraizer Campbell aren't quite there.

Predictions

While the signings of Mandanda and Tomkins will sure up the defensive side, I'm not convinced that Palace have the attacking threat to chase a place in Europe. While I don't think they'll have the same distractions as last season, they're not going to be the Leicester of this year. I do think they'll keep some way from relegation this time.

Final position: 11th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Burnley

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth

Last season
Burnley return to the Premier League after a hugely successful Championship season, claiming the title by five points. In particular, Andre Gray was a revelation at that level, claiming the Golden Boot by some margin, with an impressive total of 25 goals.

Backroom setup
As was to be expected, nothing to report following the promotion, with Sean Dyche retaining his position as manager, and the backroom staff remaining largely the same as the club looks to maintain the strong performance that took them to the title.

Pre-season
Unusually, with two weeks until the start of the season, Burnley have completed all of their pre-season matches, with the vast majority of them in the UK. Even more pleasing for the clarets will be that they've gone unbeaten during the five matches played, with Andre Gray in outsanding form. Starting with a double in Burnley's 3-1 win in France at Stade Nyonnais, Gray has scored eight goals in the five matches, including a hat trick in the final match at Ibrox in the 3-1 win.

Sandwiched between these results were a 1-1 draw at Morecambe, a 4-1 win at Bradford and a 2-1 win at Bolton. All lower league opposition, but building momentum nonetheless. Expect Turf Moor to be a fortress on the opening day against Swansea.

Squad and signings

Much has been made of the money floating around in football now, and while it has become obscene, you now have to spend money to make money. Sean Dyche clearly feels he doesn't have that option, with his thinly veiled criticism of the club's owners, suggesting that the money to make signings is not available to him. So far, he has made three signings - the duo of Nick Pope and Johann Gudmundsson from Charlton Athletic, recently relegated from the Championship, as well as youngster Jimmy Dunne from Manchester United - hardly groundbreaking!

In fairness, at least they have managed to keep the majority of the side that got them there, releasing a number of ageing stars and losing both Joey Barton and Matt Gilks to Rangers. But is a Championship quality side capable of keeping pace in the Premier League?

Tactics
I think in order to compete on the highest level, Burnley may have to mix their tactics up, reverting to the old traditional English methods of long ball football. Making Turf Moor somewhere that no-one wants to visit is key, and using Tony Pulis's Stoke as a style to replicate would be best, assuming they don't find the money to invest in some flair players.

Predictions

As is the case with any promoted team, home form is going to be crucial. However, despite the form of Andre Gray, who will inevitably go through a lean spell in the Premier League at some point, I just don't think Burnley have the financial or playing quality to keep their heads above water. While this season will certainly line the coffers at Turf Moor, I don't see them staying for another one.

Final position: 20th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Bournemouth

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal

Last season

An overwhelming success for their first season in the Premier League, Bournemouth more than held their own in the country's top league. A number of high profile scalps, including Manchester United at home, led the Cherries to a respectable 16th place, five clear of the relegation zone and five below 11th.

Backroom setup
Despite rumours that England came calling for Eddie Howe (which I would definitely have liked more than Sam Allardyce - sorry Bournemouth fans!), it's no change at the Vitality Stadium. The league's youngest manager remains in charge to handle the tricky second season.

Pre-season
Five pre-season matches for the Cherries to prepare for the new Premier League, starting with a resounding 4-0 win against US second division side Minnesota United in the USA. Both Callum Wilson and Lewis Grabban hit the target with an own goal taking Bournemouth to a comfortable win. Their following match back on English soil was less comfortable, however. A thrilling South Coast derby with Portsmouth saw both teams hold the lead, with Portsmouth rescuing a draw in the final moments.

While Bournemouth would remain unbeaten throughout the remainder of their warm-up games, every win would be punctuated with draws. A trip to the Madejski Stadium led to a 1-1 draw, before a narrow victory over Cardiff. While the Cherries did draw their final game, it was against Valencia, so they can certainly enter into the new season with some confidence.

Squad and signings
The most important thing, as for many of the lower-mid table Premier League teams, is to avoid losing their top stars. On the whole, Bournemouth have done exactly that. Though they've lost both Matt Richie and Tommy Elphick to relegated Newcastle and Aston Villa respectively, they've recouped more than enough to fund some serious transfers of their own.

The headline move was for Liverpool's Jordon Ibe, with a £15m tag potentially pricey. Youth has certainly been the order of the day for the Cherries, adding Liverpool's Brad Smith, Lewis Cook from Leeds, as well as Nathan Ake on loan. In total, Bournemouth have signed eight players, with none over the age of 25.

Tactics
With the second season traditionally tricky, I hope Bournemouth continue to play the same attacking football that earned them such praise last year. I think they will, and the width provided by Max Gradel and Jordon Ibe is likely to play a crucial role, with full backs Ake and the returning Tyrone Mings to provide support on the overlap.

Predictions

As we have seen time and time again with recently promoted teams, the second season syndrome is real. I feel that while I enjoy Bournemouth's attacking football, the inexperience in the squad in terms of Premier League football could lead them into a nervous situation, and it will take real heart to get them out of it. I think they will, but just.

Final position: 17th

Bitesize Rants #3: Rival Relegation

I felt it was strange that the cheers on Wearside were louder for Newcastle’s demise than the fact that they had managed to secure survival.

As a Manchester City fan for as long as I can remember, I can certainly admit to a bit of schaedenfreude when it comes to the team from Salford – I have certainly enjoyed them being knocked off their pedestal over the last five years or so as the blues have made their meteoric rise.

This feeling of satisfaction comes from a generation of oppression and domination by the red half of the city. My memories of the competition between the two growing up was interspersed between regular relegations for my side, and when they did take to the pitch together, all too often there was only going to be one outcome. Needless to say, it made my school days at times difficult as I tried to defend myself from the merciless mickey-taking!

However, as City have embarked on a revolutionary journey in recent years, the balance has shifted, and until recently, had been on an eight match winning streak against United. In the most recent games between the pair, they have established an extremely healthy competition, with both trading victories and creating interesting and balanced matches. As a result, while I’d never actively wish success on them, I think I’d miss the competition and local intrigue created if they were relegated.

That’s why I don’t understand it in the rivalry between Newcastle and Sunderland. Having lived in the North East for three years, I experienced the strength of feeling between the two cities, and the rivalry on the pitch. However, unlike the city of Manchester derby, there has been no one side that has historically dominated in their rivalry, never mind English football, and therefore fans cannot point to years of humiliation and oppression for their reason behind wishing the other was relegated.

In my eyes, no derby means less excitement for the rest of the season, so while Sunderland fans can celebrate the relegation of the Magpies for the moment, I’m sure even the most hardcore of fans will find next year more boring as a result.

2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Who's Heading Down? (Relegation)

And so I come to my final post in this series. After discussions around the title race and the battle for a Champions League spot, I now come to the one that often ends up being the least predictable: relegation. Last year was no exception, with Newcastle coming perilously close to the drop after a simply horrific run of form towards the end of the season. However, it's my job in these posts to attempt to predict them based solely on the fixtures, so let's give it a go.

Before we start, I'm going to do a quick run through my choices for the sides that will be contesting the bottom three places. In my opinion, it all comes down to six teams. As at least one relegated side has been relegated for all bar two seasons this century, I'll include all three of the newly promoted sides, as well as others I believe to be vulnerable to relegation this year, namely Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom. You may have noticed that I've not included either Newcastle or Aston Villa, both of whom only narrowly evaded relegation last season. However, Aston Villa's upturn in form towards the back end of the season, along with the law of averages that suggests that Newcastle simply can't collapse in the same way they did last season, means that I don't believe either will be seriously fighting the drop this year.

So, now we've got our constituents, what do the fixtures say? Starting with the opening five, we can see an interesting variety of difficulties when it comes to fixtures. For instance, compare the opening fixtures for West Brom - Manchester City (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (a) and Southampton (h) - with Sunderland's - Leicester (a), Norwich (h), Swansea (h), Aston Villa (a), Tottenham (h). Though the Black Cats do have some difficult games, there is nothing like the two top sides in the league and a difficult away trip to Stoke! Leicester's games are not too dissimilar to Sunderland's, with the starter against the North East club, before games at West Ham, at home to Spurs, away at Bournemouth and at home to Aston Villa.

Meanwhile, our new Premier League sides all have mediocre starts, with both challenging and easier games in their opening five. Watford have away games at Everton and Manchester City, as well as hosting West Brom, Southampton and Swansea. Norwich have a trip to St Mary's to contend with, in addition to hosting Stoke. Finally, Bournemouth's first season in the top flight sees them travel to Anfield, Norwich and West Ham, as well as hosting Leicester and Aston Villa.

In my opinion, the order is relatively simple - West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Sunderland.

As we move towards Christmas, the fixtures get brutal, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the relegation battle. For example, Leicester may be lucky to get three points out of their run of Chelsea (h), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (h), while Watford may also struggle with their Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester City (h). To be fair, no-one has a particularly easy ride, with West Brom perhaps the best placed to take advantage, but even they have to navigate tricky trips to Liverpool and Swansea, while hosting Newcastle, Stoke and Bournemouth.

Bournemouth may also see Christmas as a key moment, with an opportunity to claim some points. Starting with a home tie with Manchester United, they then travel to West Brom before hosting Crystal Palace. A trip to the Emirates follows, before going to Leicester on New Years' Day. Meanwhile, Norwich start their games with Everton at home and Manchester United and Spurs away, before home ties against Aston Villa and Southampton. Finally, Sunderland have three horrible games sandwiched by winnable ones. Starting with a home game against Watford, the Black Cats then travel to both of last year's top two, Chelsea and Manchester City, before hosting Liverpool. They finish the festive period with a game at home to Aston Villa, which could provide some respite.

This order is considerably more difficult, with many of the teams suffering during this period. Nevertheless, this is my order: Leicester, Watford, Sunderland, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom.

In the latter stages of the season, every point is critical. Therefore, the final five games are absolutely critical, and can ruin an entire year. Again, like the Christmas period, some clubs haven't been fortunate at all. In particular, I feel for Leicester, Bournemouth and Norwich. After a horrible Christmas period for the Foxes, they end their season with home ties against both West Ham and Swansea, before a horrible triple header of Manchester United (a), Everton (h) and Chelsea (a). Similarly, Norwich start with two, albeit slightly easier, home ties against Sunderland and Watford, before travelling to Arsenal, hosting Manchester United and making the trip to Everton. In contrast, Bournemouth start with horrible home ties against Liverpool and Chelsea, before travelling to Everton, hosting West Brom and then a killer tie at Manchester United on the final day.

Outside of those three, all have a couple of tricky ties, with a few games in which they can recoup some points. Sunderland have both Arsenal and Chelsea at home, as well as the tricky trip to Stoke, but they also have games against both Norwich and Watford. Similarly, West Brom have home games against West Ham and Liverpool, as well as a trip to Tottenham, but also playing Watford and Bournemouth. Finally, Watford probably have the easiest task, playing many of the sides around them, namely West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland, as well as a home tie with Aston Villa and a trip to Liverpool.

If the easiest is easy, the rest is fairly tricky, but this is the order that I have picked for the final five: Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, West Brom, Watford.

So, when all is said and done, who is set for the drop (according to the fixtures)? Well, if we add up the points, with six for the hardest and one for the easiest in each of the three periods, we can make a final table. Should there be even points, whoever has ended up at the highest end in terms of difficulty in any of the three periods will be considered at a disadvantage. With this in mind, here is the final order, as it would be in the table:

15th - Sunderland (8 points)
16th - West Brom (9 points)
17th - Norwich (11 points - top spot 3rd)
18th - Watford (11 points - top spot 2nd)
19th - Bournemouth (11 points - top spot 1st)
20th - Leicester (13 points)

Borussia Dortmund: The Ultimate Game of Two Halves?

After a frankly appalling start to the Bundesliga season, there were many that were secretly tipping Borussia Dortmund for the drop this year. I was not one of them, but we'll get to that later. Having lost 10 of the opening 17 games in the league, Dortmund entered the winter break heavily entrenched in a relegation dog-fight. However, despite a home defeat to high flying Augsburg immediately after the break, the BVB have fought back, winning impressively away at Freiburg and at home to Mainz in their last two outings - just the second time Dortmund have won back to back games in the league this season.

It's important to put this collapse into perspective. Just four years ago, Dortmund won the first of two Bundesliga titles, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels and Mario Gotze playing integral roles. It's not even like there has been an obvious decline since, with the BVB reaching their first Champions League final in 2013, seeing off the likes of Real Madrid along the way, and finishing emphatic runners-up to Bayern Munich in the two seasons since their last title wins. To see them in the relegation zone come Christmas then was a considerable shock, and led to significant head-scratching over the poor performances.

As I mentioned at the start, tongues were even wagging to suggest the imminent relegation of the previous title winners, particularly due to the fact that they could seem to buy a win at home. This was most evident in October, when Dortmund failed to take a single point from their five games, including demoralising defeats at home to relegation rivals Hamburg and Hannover. The statistics for the first half of the season were astonishing for a team of their standard. Just four wins. Just 18 goals. And just 15 points. But why were they so bad?

Much has been said about Dortmund's unfortunate injury list, and it's certainly true that they have not had the luck of the green. At one time or another, they have been without Roman Weidenfeller, Lukas Pisczek, Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Ilkay Gundogan, Lars Bender, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Marco Reus, Ciro Immobile and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. However, even without these, it's not as though they have a particularly poor team. Certainly they have not been without all of them for the whole period. So let's take the most important five out - Weidenfeller, Hummels, Gundogan, Reus and Aubameyang. That would still leave a team of Langerak, Schmelzer, Subotic, Ginter, Durm, Bender, Kagawa, Mkhitaryan, Blaszcyowski, Ramos, Immobile - certainly good enough for mid-table at worst!

This leads me to my core argument behind the poor form, and the reason why I never believed they would be relegated. The demise of Dortmund simply demonstrates the significance of momentum in top-level football. We've seen this in the Premier League this year with Southampton in the positive sense, but nowhere has there been a better example of the reverse than at Signal Iduna Park. One loss tends to breed another, and unless you have a reaction quickly, you almost get into the habit of performing poorly again and again. Perhaps this is due to the additional pressure that is placed on every game, but whatever it is, it certainly would explain Dortmund's performances. This would also explain the relatively strong performances in Europe, as the pressure would be taken off for the Champions League games, and heaped on when they returned to domestic football.

So, with the BVB seemingly on the up with the pair of Bundesliga victories since the resumption of the season, are we about to see the most extreme example of the old footballing cliche: a game of two halves? The winter break seems to have enabled Dortmund to take stock and recharge, and have come back fresh. So, with that being said, what is a realistic aim? If we assume that I am correct, and Dortmund are in no significant danger of relegation, how high can they go? As we have seen, the four wins that Werder Bremen have enjoyed have lifted the side from the relegation zone to eighth, so the bottom half of the table is certainly close. As a result, I see no reason that Borussia Dortmund cannot make that spot their own.

However, beyond that, it is difficult to see them breaking into the European spots. There is a 12 point gap between Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach who currently occupy third place, which I feel would require the BVB to win almost all of their games to overhaul. A tricky task, and one that I just cannot anticipate. In my opinion, it's sixth at best for Dortmund, though I'm sure that Jurgen Klopp would accept tenth!

The significant problem that I foresee for Dortmund is keeping hold of some of their top players. With Champions League football for next season nothing more than a pipe dream, the likes of Reus, Hummels and Aubameyang could be heading for the exit door to pursue their careers from next season, which could have a significant impact on the long term future of Dortmund. It's certainly going to be an interesting one to watch for the remainder of this season and over the summer.

Half Time Report: European Round-Up

Having mainly focused on the Premier League in my blog, it can almost seem like I don't acknowledge the existence of any other leagues! However, while the English leagues continue on through the winter, many of the main European leagues take a nice break for Christmas. This makes it easy for me to do a succinct, but hopefully useful, roundup of some of the key leagues around the continent, looking at the title battle, the challenge for the European places and the threat of relegation.

Spain

Title

After last year's shocking finale which saw Atletico Madrid usurp the Clasico pair to claim the title, the first time that neither Barcelona or Real Madrid had claimed the title since Valencia's win a decade previously, it's been an interesting opening five months to this year.

Unsurprisingly, given the money spent by both Barcelona and Real Madrid, the pair have returned to the summit so far this season, with Madrid leading the Catalans by a single point with a game in hand. However, the reigning champions have refused to give up, with Atletico just a point behind their neighbours, albeit having played two games more. They may be on the back foot this year, but they seem intent on challenging once more.

Europe

It's all the usual suspects once more, with Sevilla currently in the Champions League spot and Valencia and Villarreal occupying the Europa League places. The only shock is the sudden demise of Athletic Bilbao. Having beaten Sevilla to the final Champions League place last year, Los Leones find themselves only 12th so far this year, and are unlikely to be in the shake-up come the end of the season.

Relegation

Realistically, anywhere from 13th down could be considered to be included in the relegation scrap, with Getafe separated from bottom side Cordoba by just six points. At the minute, Elche and Grenada join Cordoba in the relegation zone, with Levante and David Moyes's Real Sociedad, after an appalling start to the season, clinging on above them. I'm sensing numerous changes in the second half of the season as teams jostle for position, and a run of two or three straight victories may see them out of danger.

Germany

Title

Arguably the most one-sided league in Europe. Following a few years of competition involving Borussia Dortmund, with even a title for Wolfsburg, Bayern Munich have made the Bundesliga title their own in recent years. With the Bavarian side currently unbeaten this year, drawing just three games and conceding only four goals, they lead second-placed Wolfsburg by an unassailable 11 points. It's now more a case of when and not if.

Europe

The real race is for second place, with Wolfsburg separated from 9th place Eintracht Frankfurt by as many points as from Bayern the other way. In reality, the Wolves look strong favourites to cement a place in the Champions League. Other than them, the race is incredibly tight, with 3rd to 8th separated by just four points. With their pedigree, you'd always fancy Bayer Leverkusen to make the top four, but any one of Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach, Augsburg, Hoffenheim or Hannover could sneak into the final spot, with two of the remaining four being entered into the Europa League.

Relegation

Here is where the biggest shock in Europe lies. Despite having won a pair of titles less than five years ago, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in the relegation zone. With players like Mats Hummels and Marco Reus, there is no way they should remain in this predicament, however, their away form abysmal at present, there is no guarantee that they won't get sucked in. Other than that, any of the bottom half of the table could find themselves in trouble come the end of the year, with Werder Bremen, currently in the relegation playoff spot, separated from 10th placed Paderborn by just two points. This is going to be another tight battle.

France

Title

Despite all of the pre-season talk of a Paris-Saint Germain procession with the demise of Monaco, it hasn't gone entirely according to plan for Raymond Blanc's side. Trailing Marseille by three points, and Lyon by two, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani have yet to reach the highs that we saw last year. Though I do expect them to eventually triumph, Marseille have performed exceptionally well this season, with Pierre Andre Gignac and Florian Thavin singled out for particular praise. 

Europe

With Monaco slightly off the pace of the top teams, the four top places are likely to be the three currently challenging for the title and Saint Etienne, though the order is yet to be conclusively decided. The way the form table is going, I would predict a top four of PSG, Marseille, Lyon and Saint Etienne, but there is still much to be decided.

Relegation

As with a number of Europe's top leagues, this is set to be the largest battle this season. With Caen currently being cut away slightly at the bottom, trailing 17th place Metz by four points already, the difference between Evian in 18th and Nice in 11th is just three. The biggest surprise of the bottom half is European regulars Lille. Despite qualifying for this season's Europa League, Les Dogues have struggled in the league, currently languishing in 18th place. Though I suspect they have more than enough quality to drag themselves away from trouble, it is still a worrying time for their supporters, and put themselves under considerable pressure for the remainder of the season.

Italy

Title

Not quite as sewn up as Germany, but Juventus should be considered the strong favourites. Though they may only lead by three points from Roma, they have shown that they have the experience and ability to convert a lead to championships. If Juventus don't win it, I don't see anyone other than Roma claiming the Scudetto, though.

Europe

Behind the leading pair, a gap of nine points goes back to a trio of teams, and with only a further three points back to 8th place, this is set to be the biggest battle we see this season. Lazio currently occupy the final Champions League place, but with considerable European experience behind them in Napoli, Sampdoria, Genoa, Milan and Fiorentina, I expect to see many twists and turns in this battle going forward. 

Relegation

Surprisingly, this seems to be the only league where relegation is a little more cut and dried. With Parma and Cesena on just six and nine points respectively, they look dead and buried. The only real dispute is over the final spot, currently occupied by Cagliari. With a number of teams congregated on 17 points, five clear of the drop, I'm expecting to see a couple sucked into the struggle come the end of the year.

While it's been an interesting season in the Premier League, we're seeing all of Europe's leagues have prizes being hotly contested. Though in some, the largest honour is not really being contested, there are interesting dynamics being played out across Europe. With a long time to go in the season, there is still much to be decided, particularly involving the qualification for European competition next year.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Relegation)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

This third and final post in the series focuses on the battle to avoid the dreaded drop to the Championship. As I am looking at 7 different teams, this post will be a little less in depth than the other two, but hopefully just as informative and interesting. To find the other posts, click on the links below:

Title race
Champions League battle

First 5:

In my post nine months ago, I said that the relegation battle will involve the most teams, with a range of 7 potentially involved. Having looked at the opening fixtures of the teams involved, I picked my bottom part of the table to be: Newcastle, Sunderland, Hull, Stoke, Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Aston Villa. After surprise results like Aston Villa's victory over Arsenal and Cardiff's win at home to Manchester City, this is how the bottom of the table lined up after five fixtures:

West Brom - 5pts (14th), West Ham - 5pts (15th), Cardiff - 5pts (16th), Norwich - 4pts (17th), Fulham - 4pts (18th), Crystal Palace - 3pts (19th) and Sunderland - 1pt (20th)

So basically, I was way off. I didn't even factor in West Brom, West Ham, Norwich or Fulham on the fixtures, meaning that  Stoke (10th), Hull (11th) Newcastle (12th) and most surprisingly Aston Villa (13th) were not even in the list. Despite this, five games can help someone's season, but it cannot decide whether they stay up and go down (until you get to the final five of course!). As a result, I was not too concerned with my lack of accuracy, but the second check would perhaps give us a better indication of how wrong I was!

Middle 5:

The middle 5 (taken between the dates of 14th December and 1st January - the most congested period of the season) would hopefully provide me with an opportunity to reclaim some lost pride. Taken purely on these 5 fixtures, I came up with a mini table to show which teams will take the most points from this period. This would contribute to the table, but would not necessarily indicate who is destined for the drop. Based on the fixtures, I predicted that the mini table of 7 would look like this: Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Hull and Crystal Palace. In reality, it looked like this:

Newcastle (7pts), Sunderland (6pts), Hull (5pts), Stoke (5pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Crystal Palace (4pts)

Again, I was wrong. Though in my defence, not quite as badly wrong as I had initially been. Of the bottom three, I accurately predicted two, and managed to suggest that the two North East clubs would be well away from danger when the time came. Nevertheless, if we look at the table as a whole by the time we get to New Year's Day, we see a wholly different complexion: West Brom - 21pts (14th), Norwich - 20pts (15th), Fulham - 19pts (16th), Cardiff - 18pts (17th), Crystal Palace - 17pts (18th), West Ham - 15pts (19th), Sunderland - 14pts (20th). Whether this means my test is not as accurate as those for the Champions League or the title race (although read those to see the issues I have had!), I am not sure, but certainly it is some way from my initial expectations at the beginning of the season.

So what happened since?

Well, a lot. Two of the bottom three at that time ended completely safe and free of danger, with Crystal Palace pulling off a master stroke in hiring Tony Pulis (whose appointment I actually disagreed with at the time but shhhhh!) and West Ham relying on Big Sam Allardyce to get them out of it, which he duly did. Sunderland pulled off the greatest of great escapes, with the 2-2 draw at the Etihad, sparking the most incredible of results. Away wins at Chelsea and Manchester United, along with a home success against West Brom ensured that the Black Cats steered themselves out of what seemed an impossible situation with one match to spare. With Fulham and Cardiff unable to drag themselves from their hole (meaning that Felix Magath suffered his first relegation as a manager), it was Norwich that bore the brunt of the Sunderland escape. Their incredibly tough end to the season ultimately condemned them to the Championship, but it was the lack of fight in games involving sides around them that cost the Canaries their place in the top tier.

In the final five fixtures, I expected this to be the mini league table: Stoke, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland and Newcastle. However, incredible runs for Sunderland and Crystal Palace meant it ended like this:

Sunderland (12pts), Crystal Palace (8pts), Stoke City (7pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Newcastle (3pts), Hull (1pt)

And my prediction?

Overall, I predicted that all three of the promoted sides would return to the Championship based on the fixtures. However, it is almost never that this actually occurs, and this is another example. Crystal Palace's inspired managerial alteration kept them clear of danger, whilst Hull's consistency ensured that they would have a cup final day, along with a Premier League place to treasure. Other than Cardiff, I didn't even include the two sides that ended up going down, as I believed them to be relatively safe!

Final table: Newcastle - 49pts (10th), Crystal Palace - 45pts (11th), Sunderland - 38pts (14th), Aston Villa - 38pts (15th), Hull - 37pts (16th), Cardiff - 30pts (20th)

So in the end, an interesting, but inconsistent test. Fixtures are a good indicator of form, which is a good indicator of performance, but it doesn't always work out like that. With external affairs able to alter that in the flip of a switch (the ownership debacle at Leeds is the perfect example of this), there is only so much that looking at the fixtures can do. Nevertheless, it does go to show that whilst the fixture organisers attempt to be objective and unbiased, they inevitably disadvantage some teams more than others.

Tactics Talk: Sunderland vs West Ham United

Line-ups:

Sunderland (5-3-2): Mannone, Alonso, Bardsley, Brown, O'Shea, Bridcutt, Vergini, Cattermole, Ki, Borini, Wickham

West Ham (4-5-1) Adrian, Demel, Tomkins, Reid, McCartney, Diame, Downing, Nolan, Taylor, Noble, Carroll

Time for a new series! As I now (for the first time in my life) have access to Sky Sports on a regular basis, I have more football than I know what to do with. As a result, I have decided to look at the tactics during a match and see how it affected the game. I will start with the return of Monday Night Football, and the huge relegation battle between Sunderland and West Ham at the Stadium of Light, examining each of the half hour periods before determining who deserved to win the game.

If we look at the line-ups, we can see that neither side entered the game with a particularly positive attitude. This was certainly more of a must win game for the Black Cats, which is demonstrated by the use of wing-backs, making their 5 at the back a little deceptive. On the other hand, from their line-up West Ham seemed perfectly content to sit back and accept a point, despite the criticism from the fans for boring football. However, results not style keep you in the division, and whilst Sam Allardyce may not be producing attractive football, he is getting points. A win here would take the Hammers to 37 points, practically guaranteeing survival.

In the opening exchanges, it was clear that Sunderland's wing backs, particularly Phil Bardsley, were going to be a focal point for the Black Cats attacks. A couple of dangerous crosses, including one that whizzed across the face of goal, indicated Sunderland's intent and desire to win the game. However, West Ham's tactics, as they have been for the majority of the season, were not pretty, but they certainly were effective. By getting the ball up to their talismanic striker Andy Carroll to hold up, they found themselves gaining possession and creating opportunities. As expected, it was from set pieces where they were most dangerous, and after just 9 minutes, Carroll struck. Sunderland's marking couldn't make its mind up between being zonal or man to man, leaving the Hammers' striker to climb above John O'Shea and thump a header past Vito Mannone.

With Sunderland now in deep trouble, a response was required. It almost happened instantly. A fluid move left Lee Cattermole free in the penalty area to fire a shot at Adrian. Unfortunately, the midfielder had not scored in 112 attempts for Sunderland, and that record looked in no threat of ending as the Englishman tame shot was comfortably dealt with by the West Ham keeper. After this, the game began to settle down, with Sunderland monopolising possession, but West Ham remaining traditionally strong at the back. On the break, Stuart Downing remained a constant threat as the Sunderland wing-backs kept being caught out of position, but neither really threatened either goal.

First half hour: If there had been no score during the period, I would say Sunderland, but West Ham's admirable defence after taking the lead means that this has to be called level. Sunderland certainly didn't deserve to be behind, but they didn't do enough going forward to deserve the lead.

The second third continued with Sunderland pressure, but no real chances of note. That was until the 39th minute. Another set piece caused West Ham a few problems, and after a half clearance from Kevin Nolan, the ball seemed set to fall for John O'Shea to blast home. That was until the Hammers' midfielder decided to practically punch the ball away under the nose of Howard Webb. Amazingly, the referee failed to spot the infringement, allowing play to continue. A goal would certainly have changed the game, but it was not to be. Nevertheless, Sunderland could go off at the break a little frustrated by heartened at their fight and performance.

The second half began with a West Ham substitution, with new signing Pablo Armero brought on for George McCartney. A speed demon, Armero was introduced to inject some more pace and width down the left, as they were overly reliant on Downing in the first half. The Hammers' change paid instant dividends, but it was a similar tactic that dealt the killer blow. Another long ball into Andy Carroll saw the Englishman chest the ball into the path of Mohamed Diame, who fired past Mannone with the aid of a small deflection. At this point, with the Stadium of Light baying for blood, Gus Poyet made his first attacking change, bringing on the influential Adam Johnson for the combative Lee Cattermole.

However, once again the response was minimal, with Sunderland wasteful in possession. Particularly culpable was summer signing Santiago Vergini, who seemed to find more claret and blue shirts than red and white during the game. He has always been susceptible to a mistake or two, with high profile errors away at Arsenal and Liverpool in recent weeks, and I simply don't rate him. However, more excellent defensive work by West Ham as they approached the hour mark saw Sunderland make a second attacking change. Craig Gardner was brought into the action to replace John O'Shea, moving to a 4-4-2 formation with attacking wing-backs.

Second half hour: Unequivocally West Ham. A crucial second goal and excellent defensive work versus a toothless attack and shaky back line.

Just moments after West Ham looked to have the game sewn up, Adam Johnson broke through the rear guard and finished excellently. This swung the momentum for a few minutes, with Adrian forced into further good saves to deny Ki and Wickham in quick succession. After being rattled for a while, West Ham reformed their back line, fortunate not to have lost their lead. By taking the goalscorer Diame off for Roger Johnson, West Ham changed their formation to a 5-4-1, further shoring up their defence to protect the vital three points.

The final Sunderland change baffled me, with the influential Ki Sung Yeung removed in favour of striker Scocco. This seemed wrong for me, as a like for like swap with Connor Wickham would have meant that Sunderland's creative trio in Ki, Johnson and Borini all remained on the park, whilst retaining the finishing ability of Scocco. To cover off the extra striker, Sam Allardyce brought on a further defensive midfielder, Antonio Nocerino, in place of Kevin Nolan. This seemed to do the trick, as only a Scocco half chance threatened the Hammers' goal before the final whistle blew.

Third half hour: Sunderland's resilience means that they get this on points. However, Big Sam knew what he was doing and made sure that his side did not throw their hard work away.

The win for the Hammers was priceless, moving them to within touching distance of mathematical safety. Though they have gone down on 40 points before, I am confident that it will be nothing like that mark this year. As for Sunderland, safety looks a long a distant prospect, particularly with their next four fixtures being up against the top six. West Ham deservedly won this one, giving them momentum for their run-in.

Wigan Athletic: The Brighter Side Of Relegation

2012/2013 Season Review:

                After the inevitable ‘Great Escape’ we have come to expect from Roberto Martinez’s Wigan last season, he once again strengthened to attempt to ensure that Wigan avoid the last weeks’ scramble for points. Signing Arouna Kone, to provide some pace and clinical finishing, along with Ivan Ramis, James McCarthy and James McArthur (providing commentators with a nightmare few months working out which was which!), he watched his Wigan side start with a 0-2 home defeat against Chelsea. More promising, and perhaps representative, was the 2-0 away win the following game at St. Mary’s. September proved a more testing month in the league, with the Latics collecting only one point, and slipping into the relegation places by the end. Two thumping 4-1 victories in the Capital One Cup gave them something to save, and this saw their form eventually improve.

                October began in a much better fashion, with a home draw against Everton, before picking up their first win in 7 league games at home to West Ham. However, a poor defeat on penalties to League 2 side Bradford ended Wigan’s Capital One Cup good results. This type of form is comparable to early season forms of previous seasons, where they have needed their traditional ‘Great Escape’ when we get into spring. November also mirrored this form, with the Latics taking only three points out of their five league games in the month. Relegation form in anyone’s book, and one that Wigan would need to improve if they wanted to avoid the drop. This season, more so than many before it, seemed to have an air of inevitability about Wigan’s relegation, and there was widespread belief that Wigan’s upturn in form would come too late.

                December, the busiest month of the season, is essential to a successful season. Without a consistent string of results, a side will invariably fall short of their objectives for the season. Wigan, unfortunately for them, failed to significantly improve their recent form, picking up only four points during the month. Particularly disappointing was that the games were mostly against sides around them in the table, making it even more imperative they achieve results. However, the month, and year, did end on a positive note, with a convincing 3-0 away victory at Aston Villa, giving them hope for better fortune in 2013.

                January started with a 0-4 home demolition by Manchester United, sweeping away all momentum. The start of the FA Cup then signalled a chance to escape their weak league form, and start again on an even keel.  Unconvincing 3^rd and 4^th Round successes against Bournemouth and Macclesfield did little to quash the nerves around the side, and no league win in the month further exacerbated an already hopeless looking situation. After the two busy months, Wigan seemed to re-find themselves. February saw Wigan really find their cup form, dominating Huddersfield on their own patch, winning 4-1, and following that up with a 3-0 success at Reading in the league. This led pundits to conclude that the club’s cup form could be the key to the preservation of their league status in the coming months.

                March, if we ignore the 0-4 hammering at home to Liverpool, was an exceptionally successful month. A shock win at Goodison Park in the FA Cup 6^th Round, meaning a trip to Wembley, started things off well, with three goals in four first half minutes to put the home side on the ropes. Successive wins against both Newcastle and Norwich then gave the Latics genuine hope of another ‘Great Escape’. Including these games, Wigan went on a five game unbeaten run, including a victory against Millwall in the FA Cup Semi. Whilst the game was unfortunately marred by violence in the Millwall end, Wigan thoroughly outplayed their Championship opponents, winning the game 2-0. Two successive league defeats followed the euphoria of achieving an FA Cup final, which severely dented their survival hopes, but a draw at home to Tottenham, followed by an away win at West Brom once again reignited the Wigan fans’ hope of survival, leaving them just three points adrift. However, a 2-3 defeat at home to Swansea left their Premier League status hanging by a thread, and it was not the best preparation for arguably their biggest game in their short history.

                The FA Cup Final against Manchester City, in which Wigan were the 9/1 long shots, started with City on the front foot, forcing Wigan keeper Joel into a number of good saves. However, as the game went on, it became more and more obvious that Roberto Martinez had got his tactics spot-on, with Callum McManaman in particular standing out. The second half continued in the same vein, with the Latics dominating both possession and chances, and once Pablo Zabaleta had been sent off for City, the inevitable occurred. Ben Watson’s 91^st minute header sent the Wigan end into delirium and left many rubbing their eyes in disbelief. The final whistle sparked scenes of jubilation on the touchline and in the stands. A first major trophy in their history, and a thoroughly deserved win.

                Unfortunately, they were unable to celebrate their FA Cup victory for long, before being plunged into despair at the Emirates. A 4-1 defeat just four days after their Wembley heroics meant their relegation was confirmed. Some may say it is about three seasons too late, however I genuinely think the Premier League will miss Wigan’s indescribable late season form each season. Pundits have said that Wigan only play well ‘when the clocks go forward’. They cannot afford to do that next year, or they will be finding it very hard to stay in the highly competitive Championship.

                Overall, if you had offered the FA Cup to the Wigan side at the start of the season in exchange for relegation, they probably would have taken it. Promotions occur every year, but a cup final is probably a once in a career opportunity for these Wigan players. As for their manager, they may face a struggle to keep him, as he is too good to ply his trade in the second tier. I fear for Wigan, as the Championship is notoriously competitive, and getting back up is not easy.

 

Player of the Season: Arouna Kone – Based on the FA Cup run, I would say McManaman. However, based on the overall season, I have to go with the big Ivorian. Eleven goals in your first season is a good return, especially when you consider the position of the club. His pace and finishing ability will leave him in demand from other Premier League clubs next season, perhaps the promoted sides.

 

Game of the Season: Manchester City 0-1 Wigan – Perhaps the easiest selection I have had to make. An historic day for the club and the city, and the best illustration that you should never underestimate the underdog. Bringing back shades of Sunderland vs Leeds, and the Crazy Gang’s heroics against Liverpool a decade or so later, Wigan’s success will live long in the memory, and shows us just why the FA Cup is so revered.

 

Summer Transfer Targets (What I Think They Need): Keeping Roberto Martinez, whilst a huge challenge, is their most important aim of this pre-season. I fully expect that this will be a summer of more exits than entrances for Wigan Athletic, with many of the club’s FA Cup heroes in demand. This makes it impossible to judge exactly will be needed, but they need to retain a core from the current squad to build a Championship equivalent around.

 

Transfer Gossip Links:

In:

None

Out:

Franco Di Santo (Lazio, Bologna, West Brom, ST), James McCarthy (Newcastle, CM), Maynor Figueroa (West Ham United, CB), Callum McManaman (Everton, RW), Roberto Martinez (Manager, Everton)