Borussia Dortmund: The Ultimate Game of Two Halves?

After a frankly appalling start to the Bundesliga season, there were many that were secretly tipping Borussia Dortmund for the drop this year. I was not one of them, but we'll get to that later. Having lost 10 of the opening 17 games in the league, Dortmund entered the winter break heavily entrenched in a relegation dog-fight. However, despite a home defeat to high flying Augsburg immediately after the break, the BVB have fought back, winning impressively away at Freiburg and at home to Mainz in their last two outings - just the second time Dortmund have won back to back games in the league this season.

It's important to put this collapse into perspective. Just four years ago, Dortmund won the first of two Bundesliga titles, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels and Mario Gotze playing integral roles. It's not even like there has been an obvious decline since, with the BVB reaching their first Champions League final in 2013, seeing off the likes of Real Madrid along the way, and finishing emphatic runners-up to Bayern Munich in the two seasons since their last title wins. To see them in the relegation zone come Christmas then was a considerable shock, and led to significant head-scratching over the poor performances.

As I mentioned at the start, tongues were even wagging to suggest the imminent relegation of the previous title winners, particularly due to the fact that they could seem to buy a win at home. This was most evident in October, when Dortmund failed to take a single point from their five games, including demoralising defeats at home to relegation rivals Hamburg and Hannover. The statistics for the first half of the season were astonishing for a team of their standard. Just four wins. Just 18 goals. And just 15 points. But why were they so bad?

Much has been said about Dortmund's unfortunate injury list, and it's certainly true that they have not had the luck of the green. At one time or another, they have been without Roman Weidenfeller, Lukas Pisczek, Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Ilkay Gundogan, Lars Bender, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Marco Reus, Ciro Immobile and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. However, even without these, it's not as though they have a particularly poor team. Certainly they have not been without all of them for the whole period. So let's take the most important five out - Weidenfeller, Hummels, Gundogan, Reus and Aubameyang. That would still leave a team of Langerak, Schmelzer, Subotic, Ginter, Durm, Bender, Kagawa, Mkhitaryan, Blaszcyowski, Ramos, Immobile - certainly good enough for mid-table at worst!

This leads me to my core argument behind the poor form, and the reason why I never believed they would be relegated. The demise of Dortmund simply demonstrates the significance of momentum in top-level football. We've seen this in the Premier League this year with Southampton in the positive sense, but nowhere has there been a better example of the reverse than at Signal Iduna Park. One loss tends to breed another, and unless you have a reaction quickly, you almost get into the habit of performing poorly again and again. Perhaps this is due to the additional pressure that is placed on every game, but whatever it is, it certainly would explain Dortmund's performances. This would also explain the relatively strong performances in Europe, as the pressure would be taken off for the Champions League games, and heaped on when they returned to domestic football.

So, with the BVB seemingly on the up with the pair of Bundesliga victories since the resumption of the season, are we about to see the most extreme example of the old footballing cliche: a game of two halves? The winter break seems to have enabled Dortmund to take stock and recharge, and have come back fresh. So, with that being said, what is a realistic aim? If we assume that I am correct, and Dortmund are in no significant danger of relegation, how high can they go? As we have seen, the four wins that Werder Bremen have enjoyed have lifted the side from the relegation zone to eighth, so the bottom half of the table is certainly close. As a result, I see no reason that Borussia Dortmund cannot make that spot their own.

However, beyond that, it is difficult to see them breaking into the European spots. There is a 12 point gap between Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach who currently occupy third place, which I feel would require the BVB to win almost all of their games to overhaul. A tricky task, and one that I just cannot anticipate. In my opinion, it's sixth at best for Dortmund, though I'm sure that Jurgen Klopp would accept tenth!

The significant problem that I foresee for Dortmund is keeping hold of some of their top players. With Champions League football for next season nothing more than a pipe dream, the likes of Reus, Hummels and Aubameyang could be heading for the exit door to pursue their careers from next season, which could have a significant impact on the long term future of Dortmund. It's certainly going to be an interesting one to watch for the remainder of this season and over the summer.

Half Time Report: World Team of 2014

The final post in my 'Half Time Report' series follows my blogs rounding up the European activity this year and my Premier League team of 2014. More importantly, this week's FifPro XI came under considerable criticism for its inclusion of, among others, David Luiz.

With this in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to put together my World Team of the Year. Same principle as my Premier League one, but across all leagues.

World Team of the Year (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper - Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich)
The first goalkeeper to be nominated for the Ballon d'Or since Gianluigi Buffon in 2006, this selection is probably one of the more obvious. The German keeper has had undoubtedly the best year of his illustrious career to date, claiming not only Bundesliga and German cup medals, but the Holy Grail of world football - the World Cup. Since then, the Bayern Munich goalie has been awarded the German player of the year, and has conceded just four league goals, with Sergio Aguero the only player to score more than once in a game against him!

Left back - Marcelo (Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Thiago Silva (Paris Saint Germain)
A difficult position, this. No-one has particularly stood out at left back this year, with even the World Cup-winning German national team struggling to nail down a designated full back. However, following a seasons that saw his club side win the domestic and European cup double, including a vital goal in the Champions League final, and playing a pivotal role in his national side reaching the World Cup semi-finals on home soil, I felt Marcelo was most deserving.

Centre back - Diego Godin (Atletico Madrid) FIFPro XI - Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)
For me, this was a surprise omission from the FifPro XI side. A towering centre back, Godin has had a remarkable 2014, captaining his Atletico Madrid side to their first La Liga title in XX years and to within a minute of Champions League glory, including scoring what would have been the winning goal. Though his Uruguayan side left the World Cup under a cloud thanks to Luis Suarez, Godin gave a good account of himself, and despite losing a number of key players in the summer, he has led Atletico into another title race this year.

Centre back - Jerome Boateng (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - David Luiz (Paris Saint Germain)
My replacement for arguably the most ridiculous inclusion into the FIFPro XI side. David Luiz has moved from a side under performing over the last few seasons, winning nothing last year with Chelsea despite high expectations, to Paris Saint Germain, a side that should be walking the title and domestic cup competitions. However, six months in, PSG find themselves behind both Lyon and Marseille - so in what universe has David Luiz been performing strongly? Oh, and there is also the little matter of the 7-1 thumping by Germany in the World Cup!

Anyway, enough of the negatives - Jerome Boateng has (and I bite my tongue as I say this) gone from strength to strength since he left Manchester City for Bayern Munich, becoming a first team regular and leading his side to another Bundesliga title and cup win. He has also nailed down a position for the national side, helping the German's to that historic World Cup win in July.

Right back - Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich)
Another fairly straight forward decision. As with the left back position, there has been a lack of stand out right-backs this year, but Philipp Lahm deserves to be in the team. Though often deployed as a defensive midfielder, his home is as a defensive wide man. As captain of both Bayern Munich and Germany, he has led sides to success both domestically and nationally. What a way to cap an outstanding career!

Left midfielder - Eden Hazard (Chelsea) FIFPro XI - Angel Di Maria (Real Madrid/Manchester United)
This was the other inclusion to the FifPro team that baffled me. Angel Di Maria, though a good player in Real Madrid's 'La Decima' campaign, was by no means a lynchpin. Since his move to Manchester United, he has shown glimpses of his brilliance, but injury and inconsistency has limited his effectiveness so far this season. With this in mind, I can't help but think that it is the outrageous price tag put on his head that has tipped the balance in his favour.

However, my choice is a more sensible one. The only inclusion from the Premier League, Eden Hazard has come on considerably in the last 12 months. Unlike many in this team, the Belgian has not got the same amount of trophies in the cabinet from the last year, but he has been a critical part of the success of both his club and national side - a role he has taken on with distinction so far this year. Should his form continue in this vein for the remainder of the season, I have little doubt that trophies will follow.

Central midfielder - James Rodriguez (AS Monaco/Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Andres Iniesta (Barcelona)
The exclusion that most surprised me. Arguably the 'Player of the Tournament' at this summer's World Cup (why they gave that honour to Lionel Messi escapes me!), Rodriguez as a midfielder grabbed the Golden Boot and the Puskas Award for his incredible volley against Uruguay. This paved the way for his big money move to Real Madrid, where he has slotted seamlessly into the all-star side. Though like Hazard, he has yet to win a trophy in 2014, his individual achievements more than make up for this, and he deserves his place.

Right midfielder - Toni Kroos (Bayern Munich/Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Toni Kroos (Bayern Munich/Real Madrid)
Like James Rodriguez, Toni Kroos's consistency, both at Bayern Munich and the World Cup, earned him a move to Madrid. Though not for the same multiples, there can be no denying that the young German has had a significant impact since arriving at the Bernabeu, and with a World Cup winner's medal already in his locker, there is no reason why the midfielder cannot go on to claim some of football's most historic trophies in the coming years.

Left forward - Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
A deserving winner of this year's Ballon d'Or, Cristiano Ronaldo has a goals to games ratio that is simply frightening. Though accusations of 'but how would be perform on a wintery night at Stoke' have been levelled at Lionel Messi, the same cannot be said for Ronaldo. Been there, done that, swapped the t-shirt. It is only a genuine shame that he carries his national team quite so heavily, making it unlikely he will claim football's biggest prize. I do wonder how well Portugal might have done if Ronaldo had been part of the side with Luis Figo and the like at the height of his powers - the results would have been frightening!

Centre forward - Lionel Messi (Barcelona) FIFPro XI - Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
A fairly quiet year by Lionel Messi's standard - though it is worth noting that he reached a World Cup final, scoring over 40 goals along the way! He hasn't quite had the same drive and momentum as a few seasons ago, with injury beginning to curtail his playing time and affecting form. Awarded the 'Player of the Tournament' (though this is disputed), he got Argentina out of tough spots time after time and dragged them kicking and screaming into the latter stages. Though his club side has had a disappointing season, leading to questions about the little Argentine's future, I remain convinced he will be a Barcelona player, scoring ridiculous amounts of goals for years to come.

Right forward - Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich)
Having watched Manchester City play Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season, I can honestly say that Robben is the only player that, every time he received the ball, I almost expected to score. Having helped Bayern to dominate the Bundesliga, the Dutch master terrorised the world champions Spain in Group C of the World Cup, scoring twice and running Sergio Ramos ragged all game in the 5-1 crushing. The ball looks forever glued to his feet, and though you can often accuse him of being greedy at times, you can hardly blame him when he scores so often. I'm sure Jose Mourinho will be looking at Robben as 'the one that got away' for Chelsea.

Bench: Thibaut Courtois (Atletico Madrid/Chelsea), Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid), Yaya Toure (Manchester City), Neymar (Barcelona), Gareth Bale (Real Madrid), Diego Costa (Atletico Madrid/Chelsea), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

Unlike the FIFPro XI announced on Monday, I think there can be little complaints about my alternative - though I would say that! Interestingly, only six of my side made it into the official team, demonstrating the strength of a number of teams around the world. Though my team is made up of just four teams, there are justifiable replacements for a number of these positions (just not David Luiz or Angel Di Maria!).

Who would make your team?

Tactics Talk: Manchester United vs Bayern Munich

Manchester United (4-3-3): De Gea, Buttner, Ferdinand, Vidic, Rafael, Giggs, Carrick, Fellaini, Welbeck, Rooney, Valencia

Bayern Munich (4-5-1): Neuer, Rafinha, Martinez, Boateng, Alaba, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Ribery, Robben, Kroos, Muller

Living in and around Manchester, I have seen first-hand the change in mood surrounding the Old Trafford club in the last six months. The fall from grace of one of the most successful clubs in the world has come as a shock to many, and as a City fan, not a moment too soon for me. But it speaks volumes that Manchester United came into this match having lost their last two games at Old Trafford by resounding 3-0 scorelines against two of their largest rivals, and were considered rank outsiders for this one. Just 12 months ago, United were leading Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid until Nani was debatably dismissed. Fast forward a year, and United fans saying 'if we don't get thumped I'm happy' epitomises the lack of belief in their aging and underperforming side.

With key men in Robin van Persie and Patrice Evra unavailable for selection, United had every right to be pessimistic. But in Wayne Rooney they have one of the form players in the Premier League, and he would need to be on the top of his game to keep United in it. By contrast, Bayern Munich had already sewn up the Bundesliga title with 7 games to go, and were looking to repeat the domestic and European quadruple that they achieved last season. Pep Guardiola's side have picked up where Jupp Heynckes left off, with many calling it 'improving on perfection'. As such, though they were without the suspended Dante, the side looked perfectly capable of breaking United down.

The opening exchanges saw, as expected, the German side retain a considerable amount of possession. In fact, by the time we reached half time, United had only managed to keep their feet on the ball for less than 30% of the time. With this inevitable, United would have to begin the game solidly in defence, whilst remaining open to the counter attack. This they did well, with Danny Welbeck a constant annoyance for Jerome Boateng. However, in Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, Bayern have two of the best wingers ever to have graced the game, and it was down the wings that the German side were getting joy. With United seemingly camped on the edge of their area, it would take a moment of magic to catch them out.

And yet it didn't come. For all of Bayern's slick (dare I say it) 'tiki taka' football that Guardiola made so famous at Barcelona, Munich just could not break down a strong and committed United defence. Marshalled by stalwarts Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand, the United back line looked considerably stronger than it has in many Premier League games this year. Guardiola's aversion to long range shooting also meant that the short stuff would continue, and United maintained their defensive solidarity, much to the annoyance of the Bayern coach.

Their strength at the back enabled United to press a little higher when defending, forcing a few errors from the usually reliable Bayern midfield. Manuel Neuer seemed similarly error-prone, with the touch happy goalkeeper having to slice the ball anxiously into touch as Welbeck and Rooney chased down the German.

First half hour: United's defending means they didn't deserve to be behind but Bayern's possession has been mesmerising. It seemed only a matter of time...

The game then began to open up. My initial reaction to this was 'this could get messy for United now', but it strangely favoured the English side. With the game stretched, they were able to maximise their effect on the counter, bringing them their first real chance, and the best chance of the game so far. A quick breakaway from a corner, coupled with a timely slip from Boateng left Welbeck in one-on-one with the onrushing Manuel Neuer. However, instead of smashing the ball beyond the keeper, the United striker inexplicably elected to attempt the dink over the head of the Bayern man. Safe to say it was easily caught, and the chance was gone. As was the half, but United had shown sufficient promise that fans knew they were not about to cave.

This was reaffirmed by Moyes' half time substitution. The elderly (and supposedly injured) Ryan Giggs was withdrawn in favour of the more attacking-minded Shinji Kagawa. With United looking more of a threat going forward, the game quickly became end to end, with the Germans once again dominating possession, but United having as many chances. However, that killer pass just wouldn't come, and for United, it was from set pieces where they looked most likely to damage Bayern. And do it proved. Abysmal marking from a corner left Nemanja Vidic free to expertly glance a header into the bottom corner to a thunderous reception around Old Trafford. The departing captain handing United a enormous leaving gift, and suggesting that a huge upset on the cards.

Second half hour: With Bayern now rattled and behind, United's defending looked ever more impressive - definitely a United period.

However, despite Bayern being on the back foot, they can always punish you. Just 8 minutes after going behind, a fluid move from the European champions left Bastian Schweinsteiger free to slam an excellent finish into the roof of David de Gea's net. With their advantage nullified, United once again reverted to type, knocking long balls up to Marouane Fellaini, and allowing Bayern onto them. But as with the whole game, their defence remained firm. Their defensive task did get more difficult when Alexander Buttner, in for the suspended Patrice Evra, had to leave the field having aggravated an injury. His replacement, Ashley Young, meant a real reshuffling of the back four, bringing Antonio Valencia, who was already on a yellow card and fortunate not to have been dismissed for a lunge on Phillip Lahm, back into right back.

As the game meandered towards its conclusion, with neither side really threatening, Bayern brought Mario Gotze, the highly rated German international on for the fairly ineffective Toni Kroos. As United searched for a winner on the break, Moyes turned to his instinctive finisher and (though he would not want the title) super-sub, Javier Hernandez. Neither really had any impact. The only remaining talking point came in the shape of a second yellow card for Schweinsteiger for a late challenge on the (slightly OTT) Wayne Rooney. Whilst this came in added time, and therefore carried no significance to this game, it could very much affect next week's. With both Javi Martinez (who picked up another booking to rule him out) and Schweinsteiger unavailable, Guardiola will have a slight headache at central midfield for the second leg.

Final half hour: Neither side did enough to win the game. Whilst Bayern's possession stats are incredible for the away side at Old Trafford, they did little to demonstrate why they are the European champions and how they have blown their league away this season. Draw a fair result.

David Moyes, for all his detractors (of which last weekend's banner illustrates there are fewer of than the media would have us believe), got his tactics spot on. He is an expert in defensive management, and this was evident against Munich. Though they head to the futuristic Allianz Arena still as rank outsiders, another performance like that may just see them pull off the impossible.

2013 Champions League Final: Who Needs Guardiola?

            London was invaded by Germany tonight, with an estimated 150,000 making their way from the continent. Their intention: to watch arguably the most prestigious game in European football, the Champions League final. Hosted at Wembley for the 2^nd time in three seasons, Europe’s most valuable tournament has once again provided twists, turns and plenty of shocks on the way to the finale. After a gruelling 9 months of European competition, only Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund were left standing, giving the first ever all German Champions League final. My earlier blog post ‘Germany 11-3 Spain’ asks whether this indicates a significant shift away from the traditionally dominant Spaniards, as this season more than many others has seen German clubs coming to the fore. In the German league, Munich romped away to claim the title in early April, ending a full 25 points clear of their nearest rivals, Dortmund. This gave them the tag of comfortable favourites going into this final, though as we have seen in recent Wembley and Champions League finals, that tag ultimately means nothing.

 

                As far as each of their Champions League campaigns are concerned, both have had to do it the hard way. Borussia Dortmund in particular, as they were involved in what had been labelled the ‘Group of Death’, with the league champions from each of Spain, England and Holland as their opponents. Dortmund performed above all expectations in the group stages, finishing as group winners. A tricky tie against Shakhtar Donetsk followed, with a nervy 2-2 draw in Ukraine being followed up by an emphatic 3-0 home win to see the Germans through. The pivotal moment in the whole of Dortmund’s campaign came in the Quarter Final against Malaga. After a dull 0-0 draw in Spain, the Germans fell behind twice in the return leg, only for Dortmund to stage an injury time comeback, reminiscent of Manchester United’s famous 1999 final success over Bayern Munich, to win 3-2. A 4-1 home demolition of the great Real Madrid in the Semi Final first leg made the world sit up and take notice, and whilst the Germans had to withstand an anxious last ten minutes, they held firm to qualify for their first Champions League final since 1996.

 

                Bayern Munich, in comparison, had arguably a far easier group. Nevertheless, they still had to win it, which they did (albeit on results between themselves and Valencia), setting up a Last 16 game against Arsenal. A brilliant 3-1 win at the Emirates set themselves up nicely, only to nearly collapse in the return leg, being lucky to progress on away goals after a 0-2 defeat. A more comfortable victory in the Quarter Final followed, with the Bavarians winning both legs 2-0 to set up a semi final with Catalan giants Barcelona. An astonishing home leg scoreline, as the Germans blew the favourites for the title away, winning 4-0. Even more astonishing was the result the following week, as Munich went to the Nou Camp and thoroughly outplayed the Spaniards, winning 3-0 to cap a resounding 7-0 aggregate victory and taking them into their second consecutive Champions League final. Jupp Heynckes, the Munich manager, having already led his side to resounding victory in the league, can justifiably feel hard done by, having been given his notice in January to make way for Pep Guardiola from the start of this season. The prospective treble seemed like the perfect leading present, and the best way to show the Munich board that they may have made the wrong decision in replacing him.

 

                In the weeks leading up to the final, bad blood erupted between the two clubs, as Bayern announced the signing of Dortmund playmaker Mario Gotze for the start of the following season. This led to a slanging match in the press over the course of several days, with insults being thrown from both camps. This was exacerbated by a league game between the pair, where Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp had a major disagreement with the Bayern bench, almost coming to blows on the touchline. Further Munich pursuits of Dortmund talisman Robert Lewandowski further stoked the atmosphere before the Wembley final, where Munich would be desperate to avoid the heartbreak dished out, at the Allianz, against Chelsea in last season’s final.

 

                 The game began at a ferocious pace, with Dortmund pressurising the ball at every opportunity. Thanks to this, Dortmund looked the more dangerous of the two sides in the opening half hour, with firstly Lewandowski, and then Marko Reus testing Manuel Neuer. Sven Bender also found himself in space in the Munich area, but the defensive midfielder failed to connect properly, allowing Neuer to collect comfortably. After this, Munich found their feet, with Mario Mandzukic’s header being brilliantly kept out by Dortmund keeper Roman Weidenfeller. After this, the two best chances of the first half fell to Arjen Robben. The first came to him rather fortuitously, with a deflected pass putting the Dutchman in. Unfortunately for the Bavarians, Robben could only hit the big Dortmund keeper. A similar outcome just a few minutes later, with a slip by Mats Hummels letting in the usually predatory Robben, but once again, the face of Weidenfeller prevented the winger from breaking the deadlock. Robert Lewandowski’s late chance showed that Dortmund were by no means out of the contest, but the first half ended goalless.

 

                The second half began in vastly the same way as the first, with Dortmund pressurising Munich’s every move. However, unlike the previous half, they failed to create any decent openings, leaving Mario Mandzukic to tap Munich into the leader after some good work from Arjen Robben. The goal shocked Dortmund into action, and just 8 minutes later, they had a chance to respond. A clumsy Dante challenge on Marko Reus gave Ilkay Gundogan the chance to level matters from the spot. The German, replacing Lewandowski as penalty taker after the Pole’s miss in the league game against Neuer a few weeks ago, made no mistake, sending the Bayern keeper the wrong way. After this, the game became increasingly stretched, with chances arriving thick and fast at both ends. A brilliant Neven Subotic goalline clearance prevented Bayern’s Thomas Muller from putting the Bavarians back into the lead, before Robert Lewandowski had a stunning 30 yard strike correctly disallowed for handball. However, as the game entered the final ten minutes, Dortmund were under increasing pressure from the German champions. Eventually, the pressure told, as Robben got on the end of a clever Ribery through ball to slide the ball past Weidenfeller and send the crowd behind the Dortmund goal wild. With only two minutes to go, Dortmund had no time for a response, meaning that Bayern collected their fifth European Cup.

 

                 Having successfully exorcised their demons from last year’s final, Bayern Munich ran out deserving winners at Wembley tonight. Over the course of the season, they can certainly make a claim to being Europe’s best club, a claim that is only strengthened with the addition of this silverware. A fantastic way for Jupp Heynckes to sign off as Munich manager, and with a domestic cup final still to come, the prospect of an historic treble looms large. Certainly a herculean task for Pep Guardiola to reproduce, and a decision that Bayern bosses will now be wondering about.