PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Manchester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool

Last season

Despite a Champions League semi-final appearance, last season was ultimately one of disappointment for the Blues. A lighting fast start saw pundits blown away with the early form, but this quickly faded, leaving City floundering behind Leicester and challenging with their city rivals for the final Champions League spot, something only confirmed on the final day. A League Cup victory was scant consolation for the money invested, and the club's form following the announcement of Pep Guardiola's arrival will have concerned fans.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, in February 2016, Manuel Pellegrini made the announcement that Pep Guardiola, widely considered the greatest manager in the world, would be taking over at the Etihad in the summer. However, this had a dramatic impact on the club's form, with City falling from title contention to narrowly avoiding missing out on Champions League football. Guardiola's appointment was the end result of a long programme by City, which includes recent hirings of Barcelona' backroom staff, including Tiki Begiristain as Director of Football.

Pre-season
Guardiola has suffered a stop-start pre-season campaign, but the majority of their matches have been against clubs of the highest standard. City started with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Guardiola's old club Bayern Munich, before they embarked on their International Champions Cup campaign. After much debate over whether Guardiola would shake the hand of new Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho before their meeting, it all ended in an anti-climax as the match was abandoned due to bad weather.

However, Pep did manage to secure his first win with a 6-5 penalty shootout victory over Borussia Dortmund, following a 1-1 draw in normal time - a Sergio Aguero goal cancelled out by a last minute Christian Pulisic strike. Their final game was arguably their most disappointing, with a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal perhaps the most indicative of City's quality against their English rivals.

Squad and signings
After a slow start, City's activity has kicked into top gear in recent weeks, with seven signings to date. Youth has been a key focus for the club, with Spanish winger Nolito, signed from Celta Vigo for £13m, the only player over the age of 25. Ilkay Gundogan, the Dortmund central midfielder, became the first Guardiola signing for just £20m, while City made use of their links with Australian club Melbourne City to sign Aaron Mooy. With the only other signing, the young winger Aleksandr Zinchenko from Russian side Ufa, announced as we moved into August, the club has burst into life with a trio of signings in the space of four days. Winger Leroy Sane was signed from Schalke for £37m, while both Gabriel Jesus and Marlos Moreno joined from South America for a combined £31m.

The largest signing was, typically for City, English, with young centre back John Stones snared for an estimated £47.5m. While certainly an expensive purchase, much has been made of his likeness to past centre-back in Pep Guardiola's previous teams, including Gerard Pique - not faint praise indeed!

Despite the disappointment of last season, there have been relatively few outgoings from the club, despite many, including myself, predicting an exodus at the Blues. To date, only Martin Demichelis and Richard Wright have been released, as Guardiola seemingly looks to revive the fortunes of many of the current squad including Yaya Toure, Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas. While the omission of Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony and Eliaquim Mangala has led to speculation over their futures, little concrete has been discussed.

Tactics
As Fabian Delph has pointed out in interviews, Guardiola has already had a significant impact on the playing style of the squad, with an increased emphasis on keeping possession and moving the ball around quickly. With players of the quality of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne on the ball, it's not like he hasn't got the talent to apply this, but it will be more interesting to see how City do without the ball, as it is defensively where they have often been found wanting.

Predictions
With youth being the key focus for the Blues so far this year, I just get the feeling this may be one step too far for a title win this season. They'll likely run the eventual winners close, but may have to settle for second. Expect them to only get stronger and stronger over the next three years, as Guardiola looks to replicate the success he had at Barcelona.

Final position: 2nd

Euro 2016: My Predictions

In a competition to win £50m - see link here: https://50million.uk - I predicted every game of the Euro 2016 competition. While I won't make this blog boring enough by reciting each and every one, I am going to go through a few of the key things we may see in France this summer, as well as teams and individuals to watch.

Before we get to my predictions in terms of results, I wanted to highlight some of the trends we'll see. With a few changes to the rules and makeup of the Euros for this incarnation, I'd expect to see a number of new events, certainly more so than ever before:

• (Some) less technically sound matches - If you look at previous tournaments, the participants have usually been extremely high level, resulting in a number of quality matches. However, with the extension of the qualifiers to 24, there are a number of poorer nations that have made it in, and as a result, some of the matches hardly inspire excitement (see Hungary vs Iceland, Albania vs Romania etc)
• More emphasis on final group games - The extension of the qualifiers has also led to the introduction of a 'Round of 16' for the first time, meaning that in some groups, the top three will qualify. This will inevitably lead to more exciting final games, with most teams still capable of qualifying.
• Fewer shocks in group - A by-product of the above is the fact that we are unlikely to see shocks of the like of Spain exiting the World Cup at the group stage. Unless you lose all three of your matches, you are still likely to make it into the last 16 - any team can have an off day, but you would expect that in at least one match, the top nation would put in a good performance.
• Greater security - Amid a growing sense of nervousness around France about the threat of terrorism, there is almost certain to be a greater police presence on the streets than ever before. As we have seen already, England fans have not been deterred by this when looking to cause trouble, and further incidents will be dealt with quickly and efficiently.

Moving on to the reason we're all watching - the football - much of the talk ahead of the finals has been about the individuals likely to light up the tournament, with a wide range of names discussed. For me, I am most interested in the performance of the following big names and whether they can live up to the hype:

• Paul Pogba - With the rumour mill in overdrive on the subject of Europe's most sought after midfielder, it will be interesting to see whether the youngster can set the tournament alight. His passing and vision is among the best in the world, and I'd expect to see him excite the home fans over the coming weeks.
• Antoine Griezmann - Much like his French teammate, Griezmann has had an outstanding couple of seasons at Atletico Madrid, taking his team to the Champions League final. The little striker seems to thrive under pressure, and with the crowd in his corner, this is a great opportunity to demonstrate his skills.
• Robert Lewandowski - Tipped to cause a few upsets this time around, much of the success of Poland will rest on the shoulders of their talismanic number nine. The Bayern Munich man, who has made headlines across the world for his goalscoring exploits in the Bundesliga, is an excellent finisher, but has yet to really demonstrate his talents at a major tournament.
• Thomas Muller - The man I've picked to be the tournament's top scorer has had a less than outstanding domestic season at Bayern, but always seems to turn up on the international stage. This is especially likely to be true when you consider the lack of depth in the German front line - the fact they had to bring back Mario Gomez speaks volumes!
• Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo - I've lumped these three together because they are all roughly in the same position. World class talent in an otherwise mediocre side, the success of their nations almost entirely falls down to them. There are a number of sub-plots at work, most notably the expected transfer of Ibrahimovic to Manchester United, but this is the opportunity to show just how much influence they have on the national stage.

In addition to the bona fide superstars, there will be a number of youngsters hoping to break into that category this tournament, whether that's to put themselves in the shop window for the domestic campaign, or just to raise their profiles within the game. Here's my list of those I expect to see improve their stature at the Euros:

• Kingsley Coman - After an excellent breakthrough season at Bayern Munich, the young Frenchman returns to Juventus uncertain over his future. Having also broken into the national team, Coman needs a strong tournament if he wants to solidify his place in his club side, and perhaps convince the Germans to part with some cash to keep him.
• Leroy Sane - Another youngster looking to make a big money move, Leroy Sane has been linked with both the Manchester clubs this summer, and I expect him to make a statement at these finals if he gets the chance to play. With the Germans' relative lack of firing power, Sane may be the perfect player to come off the bench and change the momentum if things aren't going their way.
• Renato Sanchez - Having recently made a big money move to Bayern Munich, the Portuguese midfielder has a bit more freedom to play than some of his counterparts. However, with big money comes big responsibility, and the eyes of the world will be on the youngster to perform this summer.
• David Alaba - Widely considered one of the best left backs in the world, the Bayern man has not yet had the opportunity to grace the international stage properly. He will get his chance this tournament, and for the sake of my work sweepstake, I hope he takes it!
• Kevin De Bruyne - Probably Manchester City's best player of the season, despite a six week layoff with knee problems, the Belgian is part of the golden generation tipped for greatness. With outstanding vision and a laser eye shot, I think we'll see the 23 year old somewhere on either the goalscoring or assists chart come the end of the summer.

So, moving on to the groups themselves, as I mentioned I made predictions before the kick-off of the tournament, with every game planned. Should every one of my predictions come off, I'll be a very rich man, but this is what each group will look like:

• Group A - France, Switzerland, Romania, Albania
• Group B - England, Wales, Russia, Slovakia
• Group C - Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland
• Group D - Spain, Croatia, Turkey, Czech Republic
• Group E - Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Republic of Ireland
• Group F - Portugal, Iceland, Austria, Hungary

I'll do a further prediction post once the groups have been decided, but for now, I'll just pick my winner, as well as highlighting where I think England will get to in the tournament.

For me, if you look at the collective squads, Germany, Spain and France are all up there, and home advantage will certainly help the French. However, in this season of surprises, I'm going to go with the outside bet of Belgium to lift the trophy. Having gathered experience of a major tournament at the World Cup in 2014, the team is better prepared to tackle the top table, and with holes in each of the other three teams, I think we'll see the Belgians come good. Expect the midfield players like Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Radja Nainggolan to play a big role in any success.

Far from many of the pundit approaches of 'England are going to win it!' (cue group stage exit), I'm much more of a realist when it comes to the Three Lions. With a young team, we do have talent, but that lack of experience and a loyalty to overrated and past it players (Wayne Rooney) means that we're not going to reach the potential this time around. A quarter final appearance is what I have predicted, before the inevitable defeat on penalties!

What do you see happening over the next four weeks?