PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Manchester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool

Last season

Despite a Champions League semi-final appearance, last season was ultimately one of disappointment for the Blues. A lighting fast start saw pundits blown away with the early form, but this quickly faded, leaving City floundering behind Leicester and challenging with their city rivals for the final Champions League spot, something only confirmed on the final day. A League Cup victory was scant consolation for the money invested, and the club's form following the announcement of Pep Guardiola's arrival will have concerned fans.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, in February 2016, Manuel Pellegrini made the announcement that Pep Guardiola, widely considered the greatest manager in the world, would be taking over at the Etihad in the summer. However, this had a dramatic impact on the club's form, with City falling from title contention to narrowly avoiding missing out on Champions League football. Guardiola's appointment was the end result of a long programme by City, which includes recent hirings of Barcelona' backroom staff, including Tiki Begiristain as Director of Football.

Pre-season
Guardiola has suffered a stop-start pre-season campaign, but the majority of their matches have been against clubs of the highest standard. City started with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Guardiola's old club Bayern Munich, before they embarked on their International Champions Cup campaign. After much debate over whether Guardiola would shake the hand of new Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho before their meeting, it all ended in an anti-climax as the match was abandoned due to bad weather.

However, Pep did manage to secure his first win with a 6-5 penalty shootout victory over Borussia Dortmund, following a 1-1 draw in normal time - a Sergio Aguero goal cancelled out by a last minute Christian Pulisic strike. Their final game was arguably their most disappointing, with a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal perhaps the most indicative of City's quality against their English rivals.

Squad and signings
After a slow start, City's activity has kicked into top gear in recent weeks, with seven signings to date. Youth has been a key focus for the club, with Spanish winger Nolito, signed from Celta Vigo for £13m, the only player over the age of 25. Ilkay Gundogan, the Dortmund central midfielder, became the first Guardiola signing for just £20m, while City made use of their links with Australian club Melbourne City to sign Aaron Mooy. With the only other signing, the young winger Aleksandr Zinchenko from Russian side Ufa, announced as we moved into August, the club has burst into life with a trio of signings in the space of four days. Winger Leroy Sane was signed from Schalke for £37m, while both Gabriel Jesus and Marlos Moreno joined from South America for a combined £31m.

The largest signing was, typically for City, English, with young centre back John Stones snared for an estimated £47.5m. While certainly an expensive purchase, much has been made of his likeness to past centre-back in Pep Guardiola's previous teams, including Gerard Pique - not faint praise indeed!

Despite the disappointment of last season, there have been relatively few outgoings from the club, despite many, including myself, predicting an exodus at the Blues. To date, only Martin Demichelis and Richard Wright have been released, as Guardiola seemingly looks to revive the fortunes of many of the current squad including Yaya Toure, Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas. While the omission of Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony and Eliaquim Mangala has led to speculation over their futures, little concrete has been discussed.

Tactics
As Fabian Delph has pointed out in interviews, Guardiola has already had a significant impact on the playing style of the squad, with an increased emphasis on keeping possession and moving the ball around quickly. With players of the quality of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne on the ball, it's not like he hasn't got the talent to apply this, but it will be more interesting to see how City do without the ball, as it is defensively where they have often been found wanting.

Predictions
With youth being the key focus for the Blues so far this year, I just get the feeling this may be one step too far for a title win this season. They'll likely run the eventual winners close, but may have to settle for second. Expect them to only get stronger and stronger over the next three years, as Guardiola looks to replicate the success he had at Barcelona.

Final position: 2nd

One Man Team: How Much Of A Miss Was Aguero?

We all remember these words: 'Balotelli... Aguerooooooooooooo!' Martin Tyler's commentary of the famous final day of the 2011/2012 season has been immortalised over the last few years, but it's the goalscorer who wrote himself into City folklore. Since joining from Atletico Madrid for a club record £38m in July 2011, Aguero has been an integral cog in the City machine. The record Premier League goalscorer, eclipsing his countryman Carlos Tevez, Aguero has scored an impressive 69 goals in 110 City games.

As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.

This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?

Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.

But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.

On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?

Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.

While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.

But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:

Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)

As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?

Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.

Half Time Report: Premier League Team of 2014

Following the Ballon d'Or ceremony, which saw an abject lack of players from the English league, and the second half of this season under way, it's a good time for me to pick my Premier League team of 2014.

Here I'll be looking not only at the first half of this season, but the back end of last to determine who should be considered one of the best Premier League players of 2014.

Goalkeeper - David de Gea (Manchester United)
Towards the back end of last year, he was in the category of good, but not great. However, the poor defensive performances from United this season have seen de Gea move ahead of the likes of Hart and Lloris and into this team. Having almost single-handedly saved United's season in the early sticky patch at the beginning of Louis van Gaal's reign, he has secured them points at home to Everton and away to both Arsenal and Southampton. As a result, he deserves his place, and is set to be key in the run-in.

Left back - Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea)
Though he hasn't been necessarily the most talked about player in the Premier League, he can certainly stake his claim for the best left back. By the end of last season, I'd have said that only Luke Shaw was ahead of the Chelsea player for performances, however, a well-publicised lack of fitness since his move to Manchester United and a string of injury problems mean that it's Azpilicueta that has been the most consistent left back, and deserves his place in my team.

Centre back - Vincent Kompany (Manchester City)
The City stalwart also makes the team. Though it hasn't necessarily been his greatest 12 months, he was still a significant driving force behind the club's second title win in three seasons. Again a consistent performer, himself and Martin Demichelis struck up a good defensive partnership at the back end of the season. Though City have failed to continue that form, it has not been as a result of the big Belgian, and City have missed him considerably since his injury.

Centre back - Martin Skrtel (Liverpool)
Despite Liverpool's defensive capitulation for the majority of this season, I still have to put Skrtel in this team. Primarily because no centre backs have particularly stood out, but he was also a critical figure in the Reds' march towards the title. His six goals from set pieces earned them valuable points against Manchester City last year, and Arsenal this, and has proven himself to be among the best in the Premier League.

Right back - Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton)
An absolute revelation this season. Run close for this place by Seamus Coleman's performances in the first half of the year, he has been a different class in the first half of this year. Both he and Ryan Bertrand have been flying down both wings for Southampton, leading to their incredible push into the Champions League places so far this season. If Southampton can keep hold of him long-term, I see them having the long-term England right back.

Left midfielder - Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
A no-brainer for the team. Probably the most deadly midfielder plying his trade in the Premier League today. With his exceptional pace and eye for a pass, he has laid claim to the title of the world's third best player. Scoring 18 goals in all competitions this year is a good return for a midfielder and with his 10 assists, he is always a real threat going forward. No defender in the world enjoys playing against him, so he should certainly be included.

Centre midfielder - Cesc Fabregas (Chelsea)
The only new signing to make the team, and no wonder! His 14 Premier League assists to date surpasses the total amassed by Steven Gerrard for the entirety of last season, and he now has Thierry Henry's league record of 20 well within his sights. Having contributed 17 assists and four goals in all competitions, Fabregas has been at the heart of Chelsea's drive towards the top of the Premier League, and has more than begin to repay the £30m spent on him.

Centre midfielder - Yaya Toure (Manchester City)
The enormous Ivorian was without a shadow of a doubt Manchester City's most influential player in their title winning season last year, outscoring the likes of Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Negredo and David Silva. Only Frank Lampard scored a greater number of goals in a season from midfield than Yaya, and despite an opening half of the season criticised by many (predominantly Paul Scholes), he still has nine goals. Not a bad return for a midfielder, and his lung-busting, powerful runs alone means he deserves his place.

Right midfielder - Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)
The find of the season last year. Raheem Sterling burst onto the scene with his lightning pace and skill, terrorising defences up and down the country and providing numerous chances for the SAS pair in Liverpool's strike force. He can score too, netting 12 times in 2014 and bursting into the England squad for the World Cup. Though Liverpool's demise this season has left him slightly out of the limelight, he has begun to be relied upon by the Reds far more for game-changing moments, and who would have expected that 18 months ago?

Striker - Luis Suarez (Liverpool)
Despite the biting incident, and his transfer to Barcelona in the summer, it would be doing his performances a disservice to leave the Uruguayan out of the team. As proven by Liverpool's drop-off, his performances led to the side's agonising run to title contention, only for a slip, and a catastrophic collapse from 3-0 at Crystal Palace to deny them. His 14 goals in all competitions for Liverpool this year put them on their incredible run of 16 Premier League games unbeaten, a run they can only dream of without him.

Striker - Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Again, a simple choice. Probably the best striker in the Premier League at present, and his statistics are simply absurd. 28 goals in 2014 in only 35 games is an incredible return for any player, with only Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo boasting a better record. He has single-handedly won games and saved points for Manchester City, most notably in Europe, where his hat-trick against Bayern Munich put City on the road for Champions League qualification. The only question that comes to mind is just how many goals would he have scored this year if he had avoided injury for such a large chunk of the early months?

Bench - Joe Hart (Manchester City), Leighton Baines (Everton), Seamus Coleman (Everton), Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal), Diego Costa (Chelsea)

So there is my selection - who would make your team?

Manchester City: New Man, Same Spending Plan

2012/2013: 2nd

Transfer(s) In: Fernandinho (Shakhtar Donetsk, £30 Million), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £15 Million), Alvaro Negredo (Sevilla, £20 Million), Stevan Jovetic (Fiorentina, £22 Million), Manuel Pellegrini (Malaga, Free), Martin Demichelis (Atletico Madrid, £4 Million)

Transfer(s) Out: Maicon (AS Roma, £3 Million), Carlos Tevez (Juventus, £12 Million), Kolo Toure (Liverpool, Free), Wayne Bridge, Roque Santa Cruz (Both Released), Roberto Mancini (Sacked), Scott Sinclair (West Bromwich Albion, Loan), Gareth Barry (Everton, Loan)

Transfers Review:

                                              Yet another season where Manchester City have spent big in the transfer market. After a season where they missed out on many of their targets (Hazard, van Persie), Manchester City ensured that they didn't miss out on their top targets this time around, securing the signatures of Fernandinho and Jesus Navas very early in the window for large fees. Fernandinho's transfer in particular was suggested as being for a highly inflated transfer fee, but with the spending power of City, £30 Million can be spent without thinking. However, with the new Financial Fair Play regulations, arguments have been raised that this is perhaps one of the last seasons where we see inflated transfer fees. I disagree, but it is hard to imagine how a football club can easily circumvent these new rules. If we compare their signings to who I thought they would sign in my season review post, we see that I did actually predict the signing of Jesus Navas, along with a replacement for Mario Balotelli.

                                                  They was one transfer target that City did miss out on this season. Edinson Cavani had been admired for a while by the City scouts, and his name repeatedly cropped up on the radar of the world's richest club. However, when Napoli asked for a fee of £55 Million for the striker, City decided that this was too much to pay for the Uruguayan, opting instead for the La Liga striker Alvaro Negredo, and the promising young Montenegran Stevan Jovetic from Fiorentina. This took their summer spending to £90 Million, and with Martin Demichelis being brought in as defensive cover, City decided that the £100 Million mark would not be broken.

                                                   In terms of outgoings, Manchester City have let several names go, the most high profile of which was long term wantaway striker Carlos Tevez. After the 'refusing to play' debacle in their title winning season, Tevez returned to the club last year with a better attitude. Having made his intentions not to sign a new contract clear, in order to get any money back for the Argentine, City had to sell him this summer. Juventus got the deal done very quickly, for a reported fee of £12 Million. Other first team departures include Maicon after a brief spell in Manchester, Kolo Toure, after his contract expired, and the failures Wayne Bridge and Roque Santa Cruz.

 Pre-Season:

                                                     Manchester City's pre-season got off to a poor start, with two consecutive defeats in their tour of South Africa. Though the team consisted mostly of youth players, it was hardly the start that Manuel Pellegrini needed for his new club. The first real taste of competitive football came at the Barclays Asia Trophy, where Manchester City were drawn to play South China in the semi-final. On a horrendous pitch, despite dominating the play, City only managed the one goal, scored by Edin Dzeko, taking them to the final. There they met Sunderland, where another Edin Dzeko goal inspired City to their first 'silverware' of their pre-season tour. After the success in Hong Kong, City moved back to Europe to take part in the Audi Cup. In the semi-final, they met AC Milan. In an incredible first half, City took a 5-0 lead after just half an hour, only to see the Rossoneri fight back to reduce the arrears to 2 by half time. A boring second half followed, meaning that City progressed to the final to face Bayern Munich.

                                                        The match against the current European champions, who had had a much longer preparation time, seemed the best test of City's European aspirations. It proved that City were close to the European champions, but still needing plenty of practice before they can realistically challenge, as they lost 2-1. They finished their pre-season tour on home soil, with a match at the Emirates to face Arsenal. Here, they suffered arguably their worst pre-season result going down 3-1. This suggests that City's spending has not necessarily improved their chemistry and playing style, but we will only know for sure after the first couple of months.

Key Players:

                                                        After a poor season by his own high standards, Vincent Kompany will need to be back to his best if City are going to reclaim the title this season. He proved during the 2011/2012 season that he is one of the best defender in the world. Dangerous from set pieces, as well as having superb anticipation and marking skills, the Manchester City captain is a leader both on and off the field and will need to inspire his teammates this campaign.

                                                         Of all the new signings, I think that the one that City most needed was Jesus Navas. I am not just saying that because I predicted that signing in my season review post, but because City had no wide alternative if they failed to steamroller a team through the middle. Now, they have a world class plan B, which Pellegrini may actually turn into plan A. Navas's prodigious pace and skill makes him a threat to all Premier League defences, and I am certain he will make himself a key player this season.

Key Fixture Dates:

22/09/2013: Manchester City vs Manchester United
27/10/2013: Chelsea vs Manchester City
23/11/2013: Manchester City vs Tottenham
14/12/2013: Manchester City vs Arsenal
29/01/2014: Tottenham vs Manchester City
01/02/2014: Manchester City vs Chelsea
01/03/2014: Manchester United vs Manchester City
29/03/2014: Arsenal vs Manchester City

Top Goalscorer:

                                                          After an unfortunate season with injuries, I think this will be the season where we see Sergio Aguero back to his best. The title winner missed a couple of months of their defence, which could have proved vital. His goal against Manchester United in April showed that his poaching instinct has not faded, and I am certain that he will challenge for the Golden Boot this time around. I expect at least 20 goals from the Argentine, with his pace and finishing ability being of critical importance for City.

Prediction:

                                                            Based on the relative strength of squads, I think few would doubt that Manchester City have the strongest set of individuals this season. However, as with last season, the best set of individuals does not mean the best team. Getting the new players to gel, along with fixing the problems from last campaign, and settling into the Premier League, means that Manuel Pellegrini's job will be considerably more tough than either of the other title contenders. However, 'The Engineer's' experience both in domestic and contintental competitions worldwide means that I feel he will leapfrog his city rivals, but will not do quite enough to clinch the title. Whether he keeps his job will depend on his European credentials.

Manchester City 2013/2014: 2nd