Euro 2016: My Predictions

In a competition to win £50m - see link here: https://50million.uk - I predicted every game of the Euro 2016 competition. While I won't make this blog boring enough by reciting each and every one, I am going to go through a few of the key things we may see in France this summer, as well as teams and individuals to watch.

Before we get to my predictions in terms of results, I wanted to highlight some of the trends we'll see. With a few changes to the rules and makeup of the Euros for this incarnation, I'd expect to see a number of new events, certainly more so than ever before:

• (Some) less technically sound matches - If you look at previous tournaments, the participants have usually been extremely high level, resulting in a number of quality matches. However, with the extension of the qualifiers to 24, there are a number of poorer nations that have made it in, and as a result, some of the matches hardly inspire excitement (see Hungary vs Iceland, Albania vs Romania etc)
• More emphasis on final group games - The extension of the qualifiers has also led to the introduction of a 'Round of 16' for the first time, meaning that in some groups, the top three will qualify. This will inevitably lead to more exciting final games, with most teams still capable of qualifying.
• Fewer shocks in group - A by-product of the above is the fact that we are unlikely to see shocks of the like of Spain exiting the World Cup at the group stage. Unless you lose all three of your matches, you are still likely to make it into the last 16 - any team can have an off day, but you would expect that in at least one match, the top nation would put in a good performance.
• Greater security - Amid a growing sense of nervousness around France about the threat of terrorism, there is almost certain to be a greater police presence on the streets than ever before. As we have seen already, England fans have not been deterred by this when looking to cause trouble, and further incidents will be dealt with quickly and efficiently.

Moving on to the reason we're all watching - the football - much of the talk ahead of the finals has been about the individuals likely to light up the tournament, with a wide range of names discussed. For me, I am most interested in the performance of the following big names and whether they can live up to the hype:

• Paul Pogba - With the rumour mill in overdrive on the subject of Europe's most sought after midfielder, it will be interesting to see whether the youngster can set the tournament alight. His passing and vision is among the best in the world, and I'd expect to see him excite the home fans over the coming weeks.
• Antoine Griezmann - Much like his French teammate, Griezmann has had an outstanding couple of seasons at Atletico Madrid, taking his team to the Champions League final. The little striker seems to thrive under pressure, and with the crowd in his corner, this is a great opportunity to demonstrate his skills.
• Robert Lewandowski - Tipped to cause a few upsets this time around, much of the success of Poland will rest on the shoulders of their talismanic number nine. The Bayern Munich man, who has made headlines across the world for his goalscoring exploits in the Bundesliga, is an excellent finisher, but has yet to really demonstrate his talents at a major tournament.
• Thomas Muller - The man I've picked to be the tournament's top scorer has had a less than outstanding domestic season at Bayern, but always seems to turn up on the international stage. This is especially likely to be true when you consider the lack of depth in the German front line - the fact they had to bring back Mario Gomez speaks volumes!
• Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo - I've lumped these three together because they are all roughly in the same position. World class talent in an otherwise mediocre side, the success of their nations almost entirely falls down to them. There are a number of sub-plots at work, most notably the expected transfer of Ibrahimovic to Manchester United, but this is the opportunity to show just how much influence they have on the national stage.

In addition to the bona fide superstars, there will be a number of youngsters hoping to break into that category this tournament, whether that's to put themselves in the shop window for the domestic campaign, or just to raise their profiles within the game. Here's my list of those I expect to see improve their stature at the Euros:

• Kingsley Coman - After an excellent breakthrough season at Bayern Munich, the young Frenchman returns to Juventus uncertain over his future. Having also broken into the national team, Coman needs a strong tournament if he wants to solidify his place in his club side, and perhaps convince the Germans to part with some cash to keep him.
• Leroy Sane - Another youngster looking to make a big money move, Leroy Sane has been linked with both the Manchester clubs this summer, and I expect him to make a statement at these finals if he gets the chance to play. With the Germans' relative lack of firing power, Sane may be the perfect player to come off the bench and change the momentum if things aren't going their way.
• Renato Sanchez - Having recently made a big money move to Bayern Munich, the Portuguese midfielder has a bit more freedom to play than some of his counterparts. However, with big money comes big responsibility, and the eyes of the world will be on the youngster to perform this summer.
• David Alaba - Widely considered one of the best left backs in the world, the Bayern man has not yet had the opportunity to grace the international stage properly. He will get his chance this tournament, and for the sake of my work sweepstake, I hope he takes it!
• Kevin De Bruyne - Probably Manchester City's best player of the season, despite a six week layoff with knee problems, the Belgian is part of the golden generation tipped for greatness. With outstanding vision and a laser eye shot, I think we'll see the 23 year old somewhere on either the goalscoring or assists chart come the end of the summer.

So, moving on to the groups themselves, as I mentioned I made predictions before the kick-off of the tournament, with every game planned. Should every one of my predictions come off, I'll be a very rich man, but this is what each group will look like:

• Group A - France, Switzerland, Romania, Albania
• Group B - England, Wales, Russia, Slovakia
• Group C - Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland
• Group D - Spain, Croatia, Turkey, Czech Republic
• Group E - Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Republic of Ireland
• Group F - Portugal, Iceland, Austria, Hungary

I'll do a further prediction post once the groups have been decided, but for now, I'll just pick my winner, as well as highlighting where I think England will get to in the tournament.

For me, if you look at the collective squads, Germany, Spain and France are all up there, and home advantage will certainly help the French. However, in this season of surprises, I'm going to go with the outside bet of Belgium to lift the trophy. Having gathered experience of a major tournament at the World Cup in 2014, the team is better prepared to tackle the top table, and with holes in each of the other three teams, I think we'll see the Belgians come good. Expect the midfield players like Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Radja Nainggolan to play a big role in any success.

Far from many of the pundit approaches of 'England are going to win it!' (cue group stage exit), I'm much more of a realist when it comes to the Three Lions. With a young team, we do have talent, but that lack of experience and a loyalty to overrated and past it players (Wayne Rooney) means that we're not going to reach the potential this time around. A quarter final appearance is what I have predicted, before the inevitable defeat on penalties!

What do you see happening over the next four weeks?

Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Best Bargain Buys

As any football chief executive will undoubtedly tell you, laced among the big money moves and the anonymous acquisitions are the gems, the one in a million transfers. Though often not involving large sums, these buys didn't shake the footballing world when they happened, but would have far wider implications for the club, and the game, as time elapsed.

But, as with the other posts in this series, who makes my top 10? Who should be considered the best bargain buys?

10. Demba Ba - West Ham United to Newcastle United (Free, 2011)
Having made the move from Germany to East London in the January of 2011, Ba made an immediate impact for West Ham, scoring seven goals in 12 games to take the Hammers to the brink of survival. However, it was not enough, and Ba opted to leave for Newcastle. He would find his feet similarly quickly, scoring 16 goals in his first season as Newcastle narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification. After a strong start to the following season piqued the interest of Chelsea, Newcastle made a tasty £7m profit, in addition to their European appearance.

9. Alessandro Del Piero - Padova to Juventus (£2m, 1993)
Arguably the best example of a young signing coming to fruition for his new employers. At the age of 16, Alessandro Del Piero was an up and coming Padova youngster, and despite having only scored one goal in 14 games for his first club, Italian giants Juventus saw something in him. In the summer of 1993, they paid just £2m for the services of a player who would go on to become a club legend.

Over the next 10 years, Del Piero would score 208 goals in 513 appearances for The Old Lady, racking up six Serie A titles, a Coppa Italia and a Champions League victory. Such was his loyalty, he remained at Juve despite their relegation following the match-fixing scandal in 2006, helping the club reclaim its former glories.

8. Andrea Pirlo - AC Milan to Juventus (Free, 2011)
Juventus have also proven to be rather astute when it comes to signing elder statesmen too. In 2011, it was the general consensus that Andrea Pirlo was past his prime, having been part of the all-conquering team of the late 2000s that included the likes of Kaka, Nesta, Maldini and Shevchenko. However, Juventus, just like Del Piero, saw the potential that Pirlo could provide, and made an inspired free purchase. The midfielder would go on to claim four Serie A titles - double that achieved for AC Milan, in addition to leading Italy to the final of Euro 2012.

7. Frank Lampard - West Ham United to Chelsea (£11m, 2001)
To suggest that £11m is a bargain buy, particularly in 2001 when prices were comparatively low, is perhaps surprising. However, with the benefit of hindsight, I think there are few Chelsea, or indeed football fans that would disagree. Already with considerable experience, having played almost 150 games for the Hammers, scoring 24 goals, Lampard completed his £11m move to Chelsea. And, as they say, the rest is history. 429 matches and 147 goals later, Frank Lampard is the club's all time leading scorer, and second in the Premier League's all time assists table.

6. Cristiano Ronaldo - Sporting Lisbon to Manchester United (£12.24m, 2003)
Similarly to Frank Lampard, £12.24m seemingly makes it difficult to consider how this may become a bargain. However, while Ronaldo may not have the longevity to match Lampard, he certainly made one hell of an impact at Old Trafford. At times mercurial, and at times petulant, the Portuguese magician solidified himself as one of the best players in the world, scoring 84 goals in 196 games for Manchester United. It was therefore unsurprising when Real Madrid came in for the winger, giving United a £68m profit.

5. Joe Hart - Shrewsbury Town to Manchester City (£600,000, 2006)
When Manchester City, perennial Premier League strugglers, bought an unknown young English goalkeeper called Joe Hart in 2006, few could ever have predicted the way it would turn out. Through all of the changes surrounding the Blues in the last six years, one thing has remained constant - their number one. In his 236 games for the club, he has had many memorable moments, whether it's keeping City in games against Borussia Dortmund or Barcelona in the Champions League, or his iconic arms outstretched run around the Etihad to celebrate Sergio Aguero's last minute Premier League winner in 2012.

4. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Molde to Manchester United (£1.5m, 1996)
Bought in 1996, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was one of Sir Alex Ferguson's more underwhelming signings. Rather unknown and unproven, he was signed as a backup to Andy Cole and Eric Cantona. However, it was here he made his mark, quickly earning the reputation as a 'super-sub'. Though a moniker few footballers want, the Norwegian proved adept at scoring off the bench, scoring 18 in his opening season. He will perhaps be best remembered for his 1999 winning goal in the Champions League final against Bayern Munich, but in his 11 years at Old Trafford, he more than made back his £1.5m - scoring 91 goals in 235 games for United.

3. Gareth Bale - Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur (£5m, 2007)
Coming from Southampton's famed youth system, much was expected from what was a flying Welsh left back. Bought by Spurs in 2007, Bale always looked to possess talent, but it was only after a number of years in North London that the Welshman demonstrated his full potential. Having moved position into midfield to help Spurs into the Champions League, Bale terrorised full-backs across Europe, particularly on one night in Milan, where he put on a remarkable display in a 4-3 defeat to Inter. He picked up where he left off the following year, claiming the PFA Player of the Year Award, before a world record move to Real Madrid, earning Spurs £80m profit.

2. Thierry Henry - Juventus to Arsenal (£11m, 1999)
There are very few transfers that radically change the history of a football club, but when they do, you have to consider them a bargain, almost regardless of price. When Thierry Henry arrived at Highbury, Arsenal were a side on the back foot. Having lost the Premier League title to Manchester United, they signed the Frenchman who, disillusioned at Juventus, was designed to play as a central striker. Though £11m seemed steep at the time, Henry has surpassed everyone's expectations. In the following eight years, he led the club to two league titles, including the iconic 'Invincibles' season, three FA Cups and a Champions League final. Despite his short stay, he scored 174 goals in 254 games, making him Arsenal's all-time record goalscorer.

1. Peter Schmeichel - Brondby to Manchester United (£500,000, 1991)
Simply the greatest goalkeeper of the Premier League era, and to think that he cost just half a million beggars belief. It's not even like Schmeichel was particularly young - he was 27 when Ferguson brought the Dane to Old Trafford. However, Schmeichel proved the bedrock for the successes of the Red Devils through the 1990s, and arguably kept Ferguson in a job in the early years. In 292 games for United, Schmeichel won five league titles, three FA Cups, a league cup and captained United to the Treble in 1999.

So, as we can see, for every misguided and inflated transfer fee that Sir Alex Ferguson paid over his decades in charge of Manchester United, he found a number of gems, which formed the heart of his dominant side in the 1990s and 2000s.

Club legends, as one would expect, are almost impossible to predict on purchase, but is there anyone bought so far that has the potential? Perhaps not the big money transfers of the likes of Raheem Sterling or Memphis Depay, but certainly mid-range signings like Georginio Wijnaldum or Xherdan Shaqiri have promise.

Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Moves That Shook The World

Every summer usually has a transfer that defines the period. However, some transfers transcend the boundaries of what is expected, or even what was previously thought possible, truly shaking the world of football. In this post, I'll outline my top 10, before looking at the mega-moves that we may see this August.

10. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (£59.6m, 2014)
The first in my list is the first in the enormous money moves that I've looked at, and makes the list primarily because of the sum paid. Seen as one of the world's best wingers, di Maria starred at the World Cup in Brazil, helping Argentina to the final. With Manchester United in a slump following a poor season, a statement of intent was required - step forward di Maria for an eye-watering sum.

9. Neymar - Santos to Barcelona (£50m (to date), 2013)
The most sought-after young talent in the world at the time, Neymar opted for the Catalans over a number of clubs, leaving his beloved Santos for a reported £50m. This transfer would have serious repercussions, however, with contract irregularities reported set to turn this into a world record move - an incredible £116m quoted as the total potential price.

8. Alan Shearer - Blackburn Rovers to Newcastle United (£15m, 1996)
While it's not really the fee that means that Alan Shearer's transfer makes my list, it's the context. In 1996, the English transfer record stood at a metre (by today's standards) £8.5m, paid by Liverpool to Nottingham Forest for striker Stan Collymore. However, having won the Premier League title with Blackburn, England's number 9 made the move to his hometown club, with the Geordie almost doubling that record overnight, and demonstrating to the world the spending power that English clubs have.

7. Sol Campbell - Tottenham Hotspur to Arsenal (Free, 2001)
Again, not a transfer I'm picking on fee, but on context. It's extremely rare to see players move directly from one club to its direct local rivals, particularly in the higher division where the rivalry is that little more intense. Sol Campbell, a key part of the Spurs team of the 1990s, made the move across North London to Arsenal, and in so doing, cemented his Spurs legacy as the ultimate 'Judas'.

6. Luis Suarez - Liverpool to Barcelona (£75m, 2014)
While the £75m price tag you may assume is the reason for this to be in this list, it's actually not the only explanation. What makes this move most surprising, particularly for the level of investment made, is that Suarez had received a three month ban from all footballing activity for his bite on Giorgio Chiellini just a matter of weeks earlier. Nevertheless, this did not deter Barcelona, and Suarez made his move last summer for the inflated price.

5. Carlos Tevez - Manchester United to Manchester City (£25.5m, 2009)
Arguably the most controversial move across a city in English footballing history, and one that spawned an ingenious marketing campaign 'Welcome to Manchester' (if of course, you're a Manchester City fan and therefore a true Mancunian). Carlos Tevez had enjoyed a semi-successful loan spell at Manchester United in 2007/2008, before making the move to the heavily spending Blues the following summer. The chants of praise were soon changed to something slightly more offensive and insulting over in Salford!

4. Cristiano Ronaldo - Manchester United to Real Madrid (£80m, 2009)
Perhaps a few of you will be surprised by the fact that I've only rated this in at number four in my list, but I'll explain my decision. Unlike a number of other big money transfers, where the player either doesn't really justify the price, or the move is a surprise in the first place, neither is the case in terms of Ronaldo. Having made it perfectly clear that he wanted to leave Manchester United, it was equally clear that he would command an enormous sum. Therefore, while it was a transfer that shook the world, it was perhaps not as much of a shock as others.

3. Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m, 2008)
Rewind to 2007. Manchester City had just narrowly avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Enter first Thaksin Shinawatra and then the Abu Dhabi United Group on transfer deadline day 2008. With manager Mark Hughes on the golf course, City needed to make a statement of intent. And boy, did they, stealing Real Madrid striker Robinho from under the noses of Chelsea for a British record £32.5m.

2. Luis Figo - Barcelona to Real Madrid (£37m, 2000)
If we thought Carlos Tevez's move from United to City was acrimonious, then we've clearly forgotten Luis Figo's decision to move across the Clasico divide, with Barcelona selling their star man to Real Madrid in the summer of 2000. Pure chaos ensued, with the Portuguese's first return to the Nou Camp seeing him so badly abused that he stopped taking corners. Pelted with bottles, lighters and even a pig's head, Figo showed incredible courage, but also, why it may not be a logical move between close rivals - especially in Spain!

1. Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£89m, 2013)
Though this move was not a considerable surprise, if you'd have asked Spurs fans the number it would have taken to prise Gareth Bale away from them, I think only the most hardcore of fans would have suggested a world record £90m. Compared to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the Welshman is nowhere, but the potential, and David Levy's notorious negotiation skills, meant that the fee inflated significantly.

With this summer window in full swing, are there any transfers that could shock the world of football enough to make this list? Raheem Sterling's £49m move to Manchester City certainly acts as a contender, but is there anything that looks like happening elsewhere?

The significant rumour mill surrounds Juventus wonder kid Paul Pogba. Both Manchester City and Barcelona have been linked with £60-70m moves for the Frenchman, which would certainly qualify as the defining move of this window. How likely this is is uncertain, but from a personal perspective, it would be great to see him in a blue shirt come September.

Football's 'Best Ever Side' - Really?

For those of you that live in a cave, or don't have access to a TV or the internet, yesterday was the Champions League final. And following a (rather more closely fought than anticipated) 3-1 win for Barcelona, people have as usual got carried away. Calls for the new European champions to be recognised as football's 'best ever side' have emerged, thanks largely to the incredible number of goals scored by the club's front three this year.

For me, this is frankly ludicrous. I'll go into this in more detail later, but far from the being the best side to play football, they're not even the best side I've seen in my lifetime. In fact, they're not even the best Barcelona side I've seen in my lifetime!

Though much has been made of this current side, my favourite Barcelona side remains the Champions League winners of 2009. Managed by Pep Guardiola, this side had matched the feat of the current Barca team, winning La Liga and the Copa del Rey ahead of the meeting with Manchester United in Rome.

Here, it's worth outlining the opposition that the two sides faced. Though Juventus certainly do have some talented players - Tevez, Pirlo, Buffon and Marchisio to name a few - there are a number that are certainly past their best. This was absolutely not the case for the 2009 side. In Manchester United, they had a side that had run away with the English league (and anyone who's watched a season will tell you how difficult that is - unlike Italy), and contained players in their prime. Defensively, the likes of Evra, Vidic and Ferdinand were all seen as being at the pinnacle of the game, and going forward, the side had an embarrassment of riches, with Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez forming a formidable partnership, not unlike the current Barca trio.

Despite this, Barcelona simply destroyed United, with Xavi and Iniesta toying with them in the midfield before letting Lionel Messi and Samuel Eto'o take over. Though the final score was only 2-0, it could and perhaps should have been many more, with United unable to penetrate the defence.

Whether that side is my favourite because of the football they played and the fact that a treble was unprecedented for Spanish sides at the time, or simply because they picked apart a Manchester United side that I was thoroughly sick of watching win, I'm not sure. Either way, it cannot be disputed that they were comfortably the best side in the world at that moment - but is that true of the Barcelona side of today?

I'd argue not. I know they say that the best side over 38 games wins the league, so perhaps this Barcelona side is better than Real Madrid. But it is worth noting that only a spectacular collapse from Carlo Ancelotti's men in the mid-season, following an incredible 22-game winning streak, handed Barca the Spanish title. I'd strongly suggest that had the furore around Gareth Bale and his unpopularity with the fans not potentially upset the morale surrounding the squad and the feel-good factor at the club, Real Madrid would be sitting here with three trophies, and we'd be calling for them to be instated as the best team in the world.

I'd also argue that, although they were soundly beaten in the Nou Camp, Bayern Munich have a better squad that the Catalans. They had to complete their two legged tie without the assistance of either Arjen Robben or Franck Ribery, two of the best wingers in the world - imagine if Barca had to go on without both Luis Suarez or Neymar. I can't imagine if the roles had been reversed, we would have seen anything other than a German victory.

So clearly, proclaiming the current side as the best ever to grace the game of football is a tad premature. But to be fair, how many of the current Barcelona side would get into the sides of either 2009 or 2011? Who would I pick as my best Barcelona team of the last six years?

Goalkeeper - Victor Valdes (2011), Right Back - Dani Alves (2011), Centre Back - Carles Puyol (2009), Centre Back - Gerard Pique (2009), Left Back - Jordi Alba (2015), Defensive Midfield - Yaya Toure (2009), Centre Midfield - Xavi (2009), Centre Midfield - Andres Iniesta (2011), Left Wing - Neymar (2015), Centre Forward - Lionel Messi (2011), Right Wing - Luis Suarez (2015)

So with only three players in my best Barcelona team of the best six years, is the current side the best of all time? No. Also, to assume that a Barcelona side of within the previous decade is to totally ignore the incredible club sides put together by Real Madrid in the early 2000's, including the likes of Zidane, Figo, Ronaldo, Beckham and Roberto Carlos, Arsenal's 'Invincibles' team of 2002/2003 or (annoyingly) Manchester United's treble-winning team in 1999. It also neglects the incredible national teams that have been created - think of Spain's 2010 World Cup winners, or the Brazilian sides in either 2002, with the three Rs of Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho, or the side recognised as the greatest World Cup team, the Brazilian team of 1970 including Pele, Jairzinho, Carlos Alberto and Rivellino.

However, the 122 goals scored by Messi, Neymar and Suarez this season cannot be ignored. They certainly have a claim to be the best strike force of all time, but to create an extension to the rest of the team is unfair. Become the first side ever to retain the Champions League next season, as well as completing another domestic and European treble with the same group of players, and then we'll talk.

Half Time Report: World Team of 2014

The final post in my 'Half Time Report' series follows my blogs rounding up the European activity this year and my Premier League team of 2014. More importantly, this week's FifPro XI came under considerable criticism for its inclusion of, among others, David Luiz.

With this in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to put together my World Team of the Year. Same principle as my Premier League one, but across all leagues.

World Team of the Year (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper - Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich)
The first goalkeeper to be nominated for the Ballon d'Or since Gianluigi Buffon in 2006, this selection is probably one of the more obvious. The German keeper has had undoubtedly the best year of his illustrious career to date, claiming not only Bundesliga and German cup medals, but the Holy Grail of world football - the World Cup. Since then, the Bayern Munich goalie has been awarded the German player of the year, and has conceded just four league goals, with Sergio Aguero the only player to score more than once in a game against him!

Left back - Marcelo (Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Thiago Silva (Paris Saint Germain)
A difficult position, this. No-one has particularly stood out at left back this year, with even the World Cup-winning German national team struggling to nail down a designated full back. However, following a seasons that saw his club side win the domestic and European cup double, including a vital goal in the Champions League final, and playing a pivotal role in his national side reaching the World Cup semi-finals on home soil, I felt Marcelo was most deserving.

Centre back - Diego Godin (Atletico Madrid) FIFPro XI - Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)
For me, this was a surprise omission from the FifPro XI side. A towering centre back, Godin has had a remarkable 2014, captaining his Atletico Madrid side to their first La Liga title in XX years and to within a minute of Champions League glory, including scoring what would have been the winning goal. Though his Uruguayan side left the World Cup under a cloud thanks to Luis Suarez, Godin gave a good account of himself, and despite losing a number of key players in the summer, he has led Atletico into another title race this year.

Centre back - Jerome Boateng (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - David Luiz (Paris Saint Germain)
My replacement for arguably the most ridiculous inclusion into the FIFPro XI side. David Luiz has moved from a side under performing over the last few seasons, winning nothing last year with Chelsea despite high expectations, to Paris Saint Germain, a side that should be walking the title and domestic cup competitions. However, six months in, PSG find themselves behind both Lyon and Marseille - so in what universe has David Luiz been performing strongly? Oh, and there is also the little matter of the 7-1 thumping by Germany in the World Cup!

Anyway, enough of the negatives - Jerome Boateng has (and I bite my tongue as I say this) gone from strength to strength since he left Manchester City for Bayern Munich, becoming a first team regular and leading his side to another Bundesliga title and cup win. He has also nailed down a position for the national side, helping the German's to that historic World Cup win in July.

Right back - Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich)
Another fairly straight forward decision. As with the left back position, there has been a lack of stand out right-backs this year, but Philipp Lahm deserves to be in the team. Though often deployed as a defensive midfielder, his home is as a defensive wide man. As captain of both Bayern Munich and Germany, he has led sides to success both domestically and nationally. What a way to cap an outstanding career!

Left midfielder - Eden Hazard (Chelsea) FIFPro XI - Angel Di Maria (Real Madrid/Manchester United)
This was the other inclusion to the FifPro team that baffled me. Angel Di Maria, though a good player in Real Madrid's 'La Decima' campaign, was by no means a lynchpin. Since his move to Manchester United, he has shown glimpses of his brilliance, but injury and inconsistency has limited his effectiveness so far this season. With this in mind, I can't help but think that it is the outrageous price tag put on his head that has tipped the balance in his favour.

However, my choice is a more sensible one. The only inclusion from the Premier League, Eden Hazard has come on considerably in the last 12 months. Unlike many in this team, the Belgian has not got the same amount of trophies in the cabinet from the last year, but he has been a critical part of the success of both his club and national side - a role he has taken on with distinction so far this year. Should his form continue in this vein for the remainder of the season, I have little doubt that trophies will follow.

Central midfielder - James Rodriguez (AS Monaco/Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Andres Iniesta (Barcelona)
The exclusion that most surprised me. Arguably the 'Player of the Tournament' at this summer's World Cup (why they gave that honour to Lionel Messi escapes me!), Rodriguez as a midfielder grabbed the Golden Boot and the Puskas Award for his incredible volley against Uruguay. This paved the way for his big money move to Real Madrid, where he has slotted seamlessly into the all-star side. Though like Hazard, he has yet to win a trophy in 2014, his individual achievements more than make up for this, and he deserves his place.

Right midfielder - Toni Kroos (Bayern Munich/Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Toni Kroos (Bayern Munich/Real Madrid)
Like James Rodriguez, Toni Kroos's consistency, both at Bayern Munich and the World Cup, earned him a move to Madrid. Though not for the same multiples, there can be no denying that the young German has had a significant impact since arriving at the Bernabeu, and with a World Cup winner's medal already in his locker, there is no reason why the midfielder cannot go on to claim some of football's most historic trophies in the coming years.

Left forward - Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) FIFPro XI - Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
A deserving winner of this year's Ballon d'Or, Cristiano Ronaldo has a goals to games ratio that is simply frightening. Though accusations of 'but how would be perform on a wintery night at Stoke' have been levelled at Lionel Messi, the same cannot be said for Ronaldo. Been there, done that, swapped the t-shirt. It is only a genuine shame that he carries his national team quite so heavily, making it unlikely he will claim football's biggest prize. I do wonder how well Portugal might have done if Ronaldo had been part of the side with Luis Figo and the like at the height of his powers - the results would have been frightening!

Centre forward - Lionel Messi (Barcelona) FIFPro XI - Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
A fairly quiet year by Lionel Messi's standard - though it is worth noting that he reached a World Cup final, scoring over 40 goals along the way! He hasn't quite had the same drive and momentum as a few seasons ago, with injury beginning to curtail his playing time and affecting form. Awarded the 'Player of the Tournament' (though this is disputed), he got Argentina out of tough spots time after time and dragged them kicking and screaming into the latter stages. Though his club side has had a disappointing season, leading to questions about the little Argentine's future, I remain convinced he will be a Barcelona player, scoring ridiculous amounts of goals for years to come.

Right forward - Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich) FIFPro XI - Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich)
Having watched Manchester City play Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season, I can honestly say that Robben is the only player that, every time he received the ball, I almost expected to score. Having helped Bayern to dominate the Bundesliga, the Dutch master terrorised the world champions Spain in Group C of the World Cup, scoring twice and running Sergio Ramos ragged all game in the 5-1 crushing. The ball looks forever glued to his feet, and though you can often accuse him of being greedy at times, you can hardly blame him when he scores so often. I'm sure Jose Mourinho will be looking at Robben as 'the one that got away' for Chelsea.

Bench: Thibaut Courtois (Atletico Madrid/Chelsea), Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid), Yaya Toure (Manchester City), Neymar (Barcelona), Gareth Bale (Real Madrid), Diego Costa (Atletico Madrid/Chelsea), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

Unlike the FIFPro XI announced on Monday, I think there can be little complaints about my alternative - though I would say that! Interestingly, only six of my side made it into the official team, demonstrating the strength of a number of teams around the world. Though my team is made up of just four teams, there are justifiable replacements for a number of these positions (just not David Luiz or Angel Di Maria!).

Who would make your team?

2013/2014: The Year of the Free-Kick?

Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, David Beckham, Roberto Carlos. All of these men have been considered 'dead-ball specialists'. We have seen many spectacular goals from each of these from free-kicks, and it has become an essential to have such a player in your team. Very much like in rugby or American football, kicking has become an ever-more important aspect to football. Over the past few years, goals from free kicks has been fairly stable in the Premier League, with several players renowned for their ability, but few outside those beginning to chip in. However, this season, free kicks have taken a much more important role, and we have seen many players who you would not consider 'dead ball specialists' score them.

Looking at statistics, we can see that during the 2011/2012 season, 29 direct free kicks were scored, with Sunderland scoring the most (5). After just 15 games of the 2013/14 season, the total of free kicks scored has reached a staggering 20. If free kicks continue to be scored at this rate, we will see over 40 goals from free kicks this season, setting an all-time Premier League record.

So who has been scoring all of these free kicks? Though they may be top of the table and have marksmen like Podolski and Ozil to take them, Arsenal are yet to contribute to the free kick goal tally. Aston Villa have two, and both have been scored by the same man. Leandro Bacuna, the relatively unknown midfielder before this season, with spectacular efforts against Manchester City and Cardiff City, made himself well known to the Villa fans, and Premier League viewers around the world. Cardiff and Crystal Palace, like Arsenal are yet to score from one, but a familiar name in Frank Lampard has registered for Chelsea. Everton also contribute two from a single player, and Leighton Baines scored them both in the same match! Turning the game on its head, his two brilliant set pieces ensured Everton would leave West Ham with all three points.

Fulham have struggled to score goals all season, so that they do not appear on the list is unsurprising. Hull also do not feature, but Liverpool certainly do. In Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard they have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to free kicks, and the pair have not failed to deliver, with Gerrard scoring one against Hull, and Suarez contributing two, against Everton and in a four goal display against Norwich. Free-scoring Manchester City have been most prolific from dead balls, but not from the usual sources. Aleksandar Kolorov and David Silva are the club's recognised free kick takers, but Alvaro Negredo's goal against Swansea, and Yaya Toure's incredible haul of three, against Newcastle, Hull and Norwich, mean that Manuel Pellegrini may want to review his set piece takers! Manchester United have contributed with three, with Wayne Rooney scoring all, against Crystal Palace, Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion.

Newcastle, despite having an excellent taker in Yohan Cabaye, have failed to register a free kick yet this season, whilst Robert Snodgrass has added one for Norwich City. Southampton's resident specialist, Rickie Lambert has added another one for his collection, whilst Stoke have had efforts from Marko Arnautovic and Jermaine Pennant. Sunderland, despite their previous supremacy in this area, have also failed to score from a free kick this term. Swansea, West Brom and West Ham all have also failed to register, whilst Kyle Walker's recent effort against Manchester United is the only free kick from Spurs. Nevertheless, this is already nearly as many as the whole of 2011/2012, despite neither Gareth Bale nor Cristiano Ronaldo being in the league.

What could be causing this? If we were seeing players like Robin van Persie or Luis Suarez scoring more free-kicks, we could simply put it down to increasing player ability or speciality, but it is not. We are seeing a plethora of players scoring from free-kicks, many of whom have either never or infrequently scored from them before. Could it be to do with the ball? There have been complaints from goalkeepers in recent years that the balls move in the air far too much, making it impossible to track the path of the ball. However, has the ball changed so drastically over the past two years that it could account for the rapid increase in goals from direct free kicks? I think not. If we compare free kicks stats from now to those from the 1970's and 80's, then we could explain it that way, but two years is too little time.

However, another explanation may go some way to explaining it. Over the last decade, football has become less and less physical, with challenges often resulting in free kicks. Clubs have therefore cottoned on to the fact that dead balls are going to be of greater importance than ever before. As a result, further training has been done to improve the free kicks of a wide range of players. Whereas 10 years ago, perhaps only one or two specialist free kick takers would be used for dead balls, now any one of six or seven may be used. The correct accuracy and power will take time to perfect, so two years can make a massive difference in this time frame. This may not be the whole explanation, but I believe it goes some way to explaining the recent trend of free kick goals in the Premier League.

 This season has been truly record-breaking in terms of free kicks, and to do it without some of the greatest free kick takers in the world is astonishing. However, such is the importance of free kicks in football, I feel this will slowly become the norm. It will be extremely interesting to see if this trend continues over the next few seasons, as this will determine whether it was a flash in the pan, or if we are seeing the hard work on the training ground come to fruition in the Premier League. This may be the Year of the Free-Kick, but it may also be the beginning of a free-kick dynasty.

The £85 Million Man: Is Bale Worth It?

                       In one of the summer's most drawn-out transfer sagas, Welsh winger Gareth Bale has finally got his wish and will don the famous white shirt for Real Madrid this season. In what has been reported as a world record fee of £85.3 Million, eclipsing the £80 Million that Madrid paid Manchester United for Cristiano Ronaldo back in 2008, Bale will have to bear the burden of that enormous fee. In this post, I will be looking back at the history of the world transfer record, and its progression through the decades. I will also be assessing Bale's abilities, asking whether he will be able to live up to that price tag, and, even more basic, whether he was worth that money in the first place?

                        Transfers between clubs were introduced a short while after player registrations in 1885. Transfer fees soon followed, as clubs realised that their players were financial assets. This led to the transfer record being set at £100 for West Bromwich Albion's Willie Groves, paid by Aston Villa. 12 years later, Middlesbrough would break the £1,000 mark for Sunderland's Alf Common. By 1928, that figure had added another 0, with Bolton Wanderers's David Jack transferring to Herbert Chapman's Arsenal for a fee of £10,890. The 1929 Wall Street Crash prevented the European clubs further breaking the record, but it did little to stem spending on transfer fees, with the next record set just 3 years later. Argentinian side River Plate bought Bernabe Ferreyra from fellow Argentine club Tigre for £23,000, more than doubling the previous record. That record remained until after the Second World War, with Derby County's £24,000 bid for Manchester United's Johnny Morris.

                           A year later, the record was £30,000, as Aston Villa sold Trevor Ford to Sunderland. After the half way point of the century, the records started to tumble as the price escalated. In 1952, the record had passed the £50,000 mark, with the first of seven consecutive Italian based records. Atalanta's Hans Jeppson was sold to Napoli for £52,000. Within two years, that had increased to £72,000, as AC Milan bought Penarol's Juan Schiaffino. The next landmark was passed in 1961, as Inter Milan's bid for Barcelona's Luis Suarez (not the bitey one) passed the six figure mark, at £152,000. Two years later, another landmark was passed, as Roma paid the first ever quarter of a million pounds fee for Mantova's Angelo Sormani. By 1968, that had doubled, with Pietro Anastasi bringing Varese £500,000 of Juventus's cash. After Johan Cruyff's move to Barcelona in 1973 for a fee of £922,000, the £1 Million mark was finally broken as Napoli paid £1.2 Million for Bologna's Giuseppe Savoldi. This would spark an even more rapid acceleration in fees.

                             The passing of the £1 Million mark was a significant point in football transfer history, as within ten years of that point, the record had quintupled. A year after Savoldi's transfer, Paolo Rossi added another £500,000 to the record, transferring from Vicenza to Juventus. Then came a pair of records for the same man, just two years apart. The world's best player at the time, and arguably of all time, Diego Maradona, smashed the record in 1982, moving from Argentinian side Boca Juniors to Barcelona for a fee of £3 Million. After the briefest of spells with the Catalan side, he was on the move again two years later, breaking his own record with a £5 Million move to Napoli. That record would not last until the end of the decade however, with Ruud Gullit's 1987 transfer from PSV Eindhoven to AC Milan adding another £1 Million to the record. Just 5 years later, we saw the start of the 'modern era' of transfer fees, with the inaugural £10 Million transfer for Marseille's Jean-Pierre Papin from AC Milan. That record would not last a year, with first Gianluca Vialli's move to Juventus (£12 Million) and then Gianluigi Lentini's to AC Milan (£13 Million).

                               The final English team to break the world transfer record to date occurred in 1996, with the return of the 'prodigal son' Alan Shearer to his hometown Newcastle United from Blackburn, for a fee of £15 Million. At the time, this transfer was considered to be obscene. Few could have predicted the course the next 15 or so years would take in terms of finances. For each of the next 5 years, the transfer record was repeatedly broken. 1997 saw Brazilian legend Ronaldo move from Barcelona to Inter Milan for a reported £19.5 Million. In 1998, Denilson would add another £2.5 Million to this, taking the total past the £20 Million mark with his move to Real Betis. The following year, Christian Vieri's move from Lazio to Inter Milan blitzed this, with a fee of £32 Million. And still the spending did not stop. The turn of the millenium saw the record broken twice, with firstly Hernan Crespo's move to Lazio from Parma (£35.5 Million), before Luis Figo made the controversial move across the El Clasico line from Barcelona to Real Madrid for £37 Million. This marked the beginning of the Real Madrid dominance in terms of transfer records, as another three would follow.

                                A year later, in 2001, Zinedine Zidane saw the completion of the famous 'Galacticos' of the early 2000's. His transfer from Juventus for £46.6 Million completed an unbelievable run of spending from the Spanish side, and many believed that the fee commanded by the Italians would never be beaten. It certainly ended the run of yearly record-breaking, leaving a good 8 years before the next record. However, the Real Madrid spending of the late 90s and early 2000's sparked an inflated price for all footballers, and £10-20 Million fees became commonplace in Europe's top leagues. By 2009, financial powerhouses like Chelsea, and then Manchester City were beginning to come to the fore, but the election of Real Madrid chairman Florentino Perez sparked another bout of staggering spending. He firstly spent £56 Million on Brazil's playmaker Kaka, who had led AC Milan to Champions League glory two seasons before, and then obliterated that record just two months later, landing Manchester United's prolific forward Cristiano Ronaldo for a ridiculous £80 Million. This is the record that Gareth Bale has outdone with his transfer today.

                                 Or has he? If we adjust the previous transfer records for inflation since the records were made, we see some vast increases. Here are a few notable changes. The very first transfer record, set by Willie Groves in 1885 at £100, would today be worth £10,417.26. The first £10,000 transfer, set in 1928, David Jack, would now cost £578,804.59, and the 1952 £52,000 transfer of Hans Jeppson would set a modern club back £1,267,432.40. These changes indicate the relative value of players to today's standards, as a £1.2 Million player would be considered a steal. Even Diego Maradona, considered one of the best players ever to have played, cannot challenge the value of his contemporary peers. His 1984 move to Napoli for £5 Million would cost just £13,626,500.00, or less than Wilfried Zaha. Whilst the young Englishman looks a prospect, few would expect him to be in the same league as the Argentine.

                                   As we moved into the modern day era, here we can begin to discover whether Bale really is the world's most valuable player. Alan Shearer's 1996 fee of £15 Million equates to £23,848,500, Luis Figo's 2000 £37 Million transfer becomes £52,784,200, and Zinedine Zidane, the most expensive of the Galaticos at £46.6 Million in 2001, gets even closer at £65,305,240. He beats Kaka (£63 Million), but even he remains a good £20 Million away from the Bale fee. Only Cristiano Ronaldo's £80 Million price is left between Bale and the MVP accolade. However, in the four years that have passed since that transfer, inflation has taken the value of Ronaldo past the £90 Million mark, at a grand total of £90,848,000.00. This makes Ronaldo the most valuable player in the history of association football, but Bale retains the 'highest transfer fee commanded' tag.

                                    Semantics aside, £85.3 Million is a whole lot of money to pay for an individual player. So is the Welshman worth it? I will start by assessing whether Bale will be able to live up to the pressure of the £85.3 Million price tag placed on his shoulders, before comparing his attributes to that of previous greats to determine whether he is worth that relative to other players. A major concern for clubs when agreeing a deal for that amount is whether the numbers will act as a weight on the back of the player in question. I will give an example. Fernando Torres, at both Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, was a scoring machine. Consistently into 20/30 goals a season, his £15 Million transfer from Spain to Merseyside seemed a bargain, and it evidently put no pressure on him. However, Chelsea's January 2011 £50 Million move for the Spaniard seemingly pressurised him. 'El Nino's' spark was gone, and he has yet to fully recover, having failed to trouble the top goalscorers in the Premier League since his big money move down South. The worry is that Bale will react in a similar way. Having arrived at Spurs for a mere £10 Million back in 2007, the winger has had no expectations thrust upon him, and as a result has been able to ride the crest of the wave. Now, he will instantly find every move he makes under intense scrutiny. Some players can handle it, and some cannot.

                                      However, one of his new teammates knows all about the pressure of a big price tag. Cristiano Ronaldo has thrived since his £80 Million move from Man United in 2009, and he will undoubtedly play a significant role in ensuring Bale stays at the top of his game. The Portuguese striker has been in Bale's place, and will be able to give the Welshman valuable advice on dealing with the pressure. I am not saying that Bale will not have wobbles, or find himself out of form at times, but he will have someone that understands his situation, and will be able to help him through the hard times.

                                       But is Bale really worth £85 Million? How do his abilities compare with those of his fellow record breakers? He is certainly no better at passing than Zidane, or any quicker than Ronaldo, or better at finishing than Vieri, but he does have that spark. The ability to create something out of nothing is a rare one indeed, and you see it in so few top players. As for the valuation placed on that ability, I think that unless he single-handledly wins them multiple Champions League titles, which is highly unlikely, he will not come close to paying back that amount. I personally disagree with the idea that any footballer is worth that sum, however, perhaps it is best to say that it is similar to art. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.