And so I come to my final post in this series. After discussions around the title race and the battle for a Champions League spot, I now come to the one that often ends up being the least predictable: relegation. Last year was no exception, with Newcastle coming perilously close to the drop after a simply horrific run of form towards the end of the season. However, it's my job in these posts to attempt to predict them based solely on the fixtures, so let's give it a go.
Before we start, I'm going to do a quick run through my choices for the sides that will be contesting the bottom three places. In my opinion, it all comes down to six teams. As at least one relegated side has been relegated for all bar two seasons this century, I'll include all three of the newly promoted sides, as well as others I believe to be vulnerable to relegation this year, namely Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom. You may have noticed that I've not included either Newcastle or Aston Villa, both of whom only narrowly evaded relegation last season. However, Aston Villa's upturn in form towards the back end of the season, along with the law of averages that suggests that Newcastle simply can't collapse in the same way they did last season, means that I don't believe either will be seriously fighting the drop this year.
So, now we've got our constituents, what do the fixtures say? Starting with the opening five, we can see an interesting variety of difficulties when it comes to fixtures. For instance, compare the opening fixtures for West Brom - Manchester City (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (a) and Southampton (h) - with Sunderland's - Leicester (a), Norwich (h), Swansea (h), Aston Villa (a), Tottenham (h). Though the Black Cats do have some difficult games, there is nothing like the two top sides in the league and a difficult away trip to Stoke! Leicester's games are not too dissimilar to Sunderland's, with the starter against the North East club, before games at West Ham, at home to Spurs, away at Bournemouth and at home to Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, our new Premier League sides all have mediocre starts, with both challenging and easier games in their opening five. Watford have away games at Everton and Manchester City, as well as hosting West Brom, Southampton and Swansea. Norwich have a trip to St Mary's to contend with, in addition to hosting Stoke. Finally, Bournemouth's first season in the top flight sees them travel to Anfield, Norwich and West Ham, as well as hosting Leicester and Aston Villa.
In my opinion, the order is relatively simple - West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Sunderland.
As we move towards Christmas, the fixtures get brutal, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the relegation battle. For example, Leicester may be lucky to get three points out of their run of Chelsea (h), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (h), while Watford may also struggle with their Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester City (h). To be fair, no-one has a particularly easy ride, with West Brom perhaps the best placed to take advantage, but even they have to navigate tricky trips to Liverpool and Swansea, while hosting Newcastle, Stoke and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth may also see Christmas as a key moment, with an opportunity to claim some points. Starting with a home tie with Manchester United, they then travel to West Brom before hosting Crystal Palace. A trip to the Emirates follows, before going to Leicester on New Years' Day. Meanwhile, Norwich start their games with Everton at home and Manchester United and Spurs away, before home ties against Aston Villa and Southampton. Finally, Sunderland have three horrible games sandwiched by winnable ones. Starting with a home game against Watford, the Black Cats then travel to both of last year's top two, Chelsea and Manchester City, before hosting Liverpool. They finish the festive period with a game at home to Aston Villa, which could provide some respite.
This order is considerably more difficult, with many of the teams suffering during this period. Nevertheless, this is my order: Leicester, Watford, Sunderland, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom.
In the latter stages of the season, every point is critical. Therefore, the final five games are absolutely critical, and can ruin an entire year. Again, like the Christmas period, some clubs haven't been fortunate at all. In particular, I feel for Leicester, Bournemouth and Norwich. After a horrible Christmas period for the Foxes, they end their season with home ties against both West Ham and Swansea, before a horrible triple header of Manchester United (a), Everton (h) and Chelsea (a). Similarly, Norwich start with two, albeit slightly easier, home ties against Sunderland and Watford, before travelling to Arsenal, hosting Manchester United and making the trip to Everton. In contrast, Bournemouth start with horrible home ties against Liverpool and Chelsea, before travelling to Everton, hosting West Brom and then a killer tie at Manchester United on the final day.
Outside of those three, all have a couple of tricky ties, with a few games in which they can recoup some points. Sunderland have both Arsenal and Chelsea at home, as well as the tricky trip to Stoke, but they also have games against both Norwich and Watford. Similarly, West Brom have home games against West Ham and Liverpool, as well as a trip to Tottenham, but also playing Watford and Bournemouth. Finally, Watford probably have the easiest task, playing many of the sides around them, namely West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland, as well as a home tie with Aston Villa and a trip to Liverpool.
If the easiest is easy, the rest is fairly tricky, but this is the order that I have picked for the final five: Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, West Brom, Watford.
So, when all is said and done, who is set for the drop (according to the fixtures)? Well, if we add up the points, with six for the hardest and one for the easiest in each of the three periods, we can make a final table. Should there be even points, whoever has ended up at the highest end in terms of difficulty in any of the three periods will be considered at a disadvantage. With this in mind, here is the final order, as it would be in the table:
15th - Sunderland (8 points)
16th - West Brom (9 points)
17th - Norwich (11 points - top spot 3rd)
18th - Watford (11 points - top spot 2nd)
19th - Bournemouth (11 points - top spot 1st)
20th - Leicester (13 points)
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label First. Show all posts
Showing posts with label First. Show all posts
Tuesday, 30 June 2015
Thursday, 11 July 2013
The Ashes 2013: England Expects?
In my relatively short cricket experience, I have never before seen an Ashes series where the weight of expectation is so on the English. In the run-up to this summer, all the talk has been the extent of an English victory. All previous Ashes series that I remember has had an air of hope rather than expectation, where a Warne and McGrath-inspired Australia ripped through the English batting in the 90s and early 2000s. More recently, the English record against their great cricketing rivals has improved dramatically, with home victories in 2005 and 2009, before an historic series win in Australia in 2010/2011. These recent victories, and the depletion of the great Australian team of the 90s, has led the press and the public to conclude that, for the first time in my recollection, the English side are the overwhelming favourites going into the test series. This blog post will investigate why this is the case, and outlining who will be the ones to watch in this summer's series.
The first question I would have to ask when considering why people consider England the favourites is: does English cricket suffer from the same over-exaggeration as ails many other sports? For example, before every football World Cup, we recieve a barrage of (tabloid) press coverage stating that England are certainties to win the competition. Optimism bordering on stupidity. As with most competitions in my memory, England progress out of the group, before perishing on penalties in the second round or quarter finals to the likes of Portugal or Argentina. In terms of cricket, the more recent successes, in both the Test format, (Number 1 in the world for a while last year) and the shorter forms (T20 World Cup victors in 2010) suggest that the English cricket side are one of the top teams in the world, and as such should be considered favourites in many of the test series they contest. In terms of the Ashes, whilst predictions such as Sir Ian Botham's 10-0 guess in the next two series may be a touch ridiculous, there is certainly no reason why the English side cannot retain the Ashes on both home and foreign soil. As a result, at first glance, whilst we may naturally be biased, and thus over-exaggerate slightly, it is certainly not to the extent that we see with football.
Momentum plays a significant role in all types of sport, and often can indicate the favourites for an event. Cricket is no different. Whilst England have had a relatively serene run-up to this Ashes test, with the controversy over the dropped (and slightly bitter) Nick Compton being the only newsworthy piece to come out of the English dressing room, the Australians have had a rather turbulent last couple of months. The major controversy of the build-up to the Ashes series featured star batsman David Warner. In what was described as an 'unprovoked physical attack' on English batsman Joe Root after a drunken night, Warner put his place in the Ashes side in doubt, and threatened to derail the Australian warm-up to the test series. He has since been confirmed as part of the Australian team to take part in the tour, but one can't help but wonder whether that will cause rifts in the dressing room. I know that I certainly wouldn't be happy to know that a friend of mine had not been given a place over a team-mate who has committed assault! Any cracks in the armour of the Australians will be exploited to the full by the English, and as a result the 'favourites' tag may be justified.
Another bizarre decision by the Australians occurred just weeks before the beginning of the Ashes. The removal of head coach Mickey Arthur, replacing him with Darren Lehmann, will do little but destabilise the Australian side, especially as the Aussies will take a while to change their regimes to fit the new man. To compare this to another sport, this is like a football owner removing their manager a week before the Champions League final and expecting his team to play to their optimum capacity despite this. It is always an unrealistic expectation, handing the English further inertia and momentum going into the opening test in Nottingham.
If we look at the two teams, we can see further evidence of why England are considered the favourites. The Australian bowling attack promises much, with the dangerous Peter Siddle spearheading the swing bowling. With promising, but inexperienced Ashes bowlers in Pattinson and Starc, we can certainly see how the Aussies can take wickets. The 'mystery' bowler Ashton Agar, making his Ashes debut at the tender age of 19, will either prove to be a master stroke by Michael Clarke, or one that England will take full advantage of. Certainly, the Australians will miss Mitchell Johnson, who would have made a considerable difference to their attack. In terms of batting, once again we see much inexperience in the top order. Whilst opener Shane Watson is well recognised as a top batsman, and Michael Clarke will star further down the order, the rest have been shown to be inconsistent in warm-up matches, and this will undoubtedly be exploited by the English bowlers. Should David Warner make a significant appearance, he will play a vital role in anchoring the Australian innings, being a dependable number 3 or 4. With this team, the Australians are more looking to build for the future than relying on now. Gone are the big names like Hayden, Hussey, Ponting, Gilchrist, Warne, Lee and McGrath, leaving the Aussies with gaping holes in their team sheet. This has seen a series whitewash at the hands of India, and could see them toil in England.
Looking at England, we see many of the established names that we have become so accustomed to over the last few series. We have not suffered quite as much as the Australians in terms of retirements, and as such can still boast names like Cook, Pietersen, Bell, Trott, Swann and Anderson. This gives us an undoubted advantage over the Aussies, and with relatively established youngers like Broad able to help the likes of Finn and debutants Bairstow and Root, the English side seems to be far more cohesive than their Australian counterparts. The bowling attack looks particularly damaging, with Anderson, Broad and Swann all capable of taking wickets at will. Finn too looks a prospect, and will benefit massively from the experience of the next few weeks. In terms of batting, England have a good attack, but we have seen that when one wicket falls, we often find it difficult to prevent a collapse. Batsman like Cook, Trott, Bell and Prior will look to anchor the innings, allowing the more flair players like Pietersen and Root to play their shots and make quick runs.
Most of the initial analysis has been proven to be in operation when looking at the opening day at Trent Bridge. Whilst the Australian bowling attack has looked threatening, with Peter Siddle the pick of the Aussie bowlers (taking a five-fer), the more inexperienced bowlers have looked good but inconsistent. The English batting once again suffered from a tail collapse, going from 213-6 to 215 all out in double quick time. The batting collapse continued into the Australian innings, with both Watson and Clarke falling cheaply before the close, leaving the Aussie innings perilously poised at 74-4. The first session of today's play will be a crucial one for this test series, allowing either side to get their foot on the throat of their opponent early.
In terms of the test series, whilst 10-0 seems a completely ridiculous over-exaggeration, I have to admit that England are looking good to retain the Ashes on home soil. This is unusual coming from me, as I am usually such a pessimist about English sport, refusing to believe the hype that all too often surrounds our national teams. In this case, I have to agree with the evidence, and whilst a whitewash seems a step too far, a series win is certainly not out of the question. I look forward to the rest of the Ashes, and hope that rain plays no part in this summer's contest!
The first question I would have to ask when considering why people consider England the favourites is: does English cricket suffer from the same over-exaggeration as ails many other sports? For example, before every football World Cup, we recieve a barrage of (tabloid) press coverage stating that England are certainties to win the competition. Optimism bordering on stupidity. As with most competitions in my memory, England progress out of the group, before perishing on penalties in the second round or quarter finals to the likes of Portugal or Argentina. In terms of cricket, the more recent successes, in both the Test format, (Number 1 in the world for a while last year) and the shorter forms (T20 World Cup victors in 2010) suggest that the English cricket side are one of the top teams in the world, and as such should be considered favourites in many of the test series they contest. In terms of the Ashes, whilst predictions such as Sir Ian Botham's 10-0 guess in the next two series may be a touch ridiculous, there is certainly no reason why the English side cannot retain the Ashes on both home and foreign soil. As a result, at first glance, whilst we may naturally be biased, and thus over-exaggerate slightly, it is certainly not to the extent that we see with football.
Momentum plays a significant role in all types of sport, and often can indicate the favourites for an event. Cricket is no different. Whilst England have had a relatively serene run-up to this Ashes test, with the controversy over the dropped (and slightly bitter) Nick Compton being the only newsworthy piece to come out of the English dressing room, the Australians have had a rather turbulent last couple of months. The major controversy of the build-up to the Ashes series featured star batsman David Warner. In what was described as an 'unprovoked physical attack' on English batsman Joe Root after a drunken night, Warner put his place in the Ashes side in doubt, and threatened to derail the Australian warm-up to the test series. He has since been confirmed as part of the Australian team to take part in the tour, but one can't help but wonder whether that will cause rifts in the dressing room. I know that I certainly wouldn't be happy to know that a friend of mine had not been given a place over a team-mate who has committed assault! Any cracks in the armour of the Australians will be exploited to the full by the English, and as a result the 'favourites' tag may be justified.
Another bizarre decision by the Australians occurred just weeks before the beginning of the Ashes. The removal of head coach Mickey Arthur, replacing him with Darren Lehmann, will do little but destabilise the Australian side, especially as the Aussies will take a while to change their regimes to fit the new man. To compare this to another sport, this is like a football owner removing their manager a week before the Champions League final and expecting his team to play to their optimum capacity despite this. It is always an unrealistic expectation, handing the English further inertia and momentum going into the opening test in Nottingham.
If we look at the two teams, we can see further evidence of why England are considered the favourites. The Australian bowling attack promises much, with the dangerous Peter Siddle spearheading the swing bowling. With promising, but inexperienced Ashes bowlers in Pattinson and Starc, we can certainly see how the Aussies can take wickets. The 'mystery' bowler Ashton Agar, making his Ashes debut at the tender age of 19, will either prove to be a master stroke by Michael Clarke, or one that England will take full advantage of. Certainly, the Australians will miss Mitchell Johnson, who would have made a considerable difference to their attack. In terms of batting, once again we see much inexperience in the top order. Whilst opener Shane Watson is well recognised as a top batsman, and Michael Clarke will star further down the order, the rest have been shown to be inconsistent in warm-up matches, and this will undoubtedly be exploited by the English bowlers. Should David Warner make a significant appearance, he will play a vital role in anchoring the Australian innings, being a dependable number 3 or 4. With this team, the Australians are more looking to build for the future than relying on now. Gone are the big names like Hayden, Hussey, Ponting, Gilchrist, Warne, Lee and McGrath, leaving the Aussies with gaping holes in their team sheet. This has seen a series whitewash at the hands of India, and could see them toil in England.
Looking at England, we see many of the established names that we have become so accustomed to over the last few series. We have not suffered quite as much as the Australians in terms of retirements, and as such can still boast names like Cook, Pietersen, Bell, Trott, Swann and Anderson. This gives us an undoubted advantage over the Aussies, and with relatively established youngers like Broad able to help the likes of Finn and debutants Bairstow and Root, the English side seems to be far more cohesive than their Australian counterparts. The bowling attack looks particularly damaging, with Anderson, Broad and Swann all capable of taking wickets at will. Finn too looks a prospect, and will benefit massively from the experience of the next few weeks. In terms of batting, England have a good attack, but we have seen that when one wicket falls, we often find it difficult to prevent a collapse. Batsman like Cook, Trott, Bell and Prior will look to anchor the innings, allowing the more flair players like Pietersen and Root to play their shots and make quick runs.
Most of the initial analysis has been proven to be in operation when looking at the opening day at Trent Bridge. Whilst the Australian bowling attack has looked threatening, with Peter Siddle the pick of the Aussie bowlers (taking a five-fer), the more inexperienced bowlers have looked good but inconsistent. The English batting once again suffered from a tail collapse, going from 213-6 to 215 all out in double quick time. The batting collapse continued into the Australian innings, with both Watson and Clarke falling cheaply before the close, leaving the Aussie innings perilously poised at 74-4. The first session of today's play will be a crucial one for this test series, allowing either side to get their foot on the throat of their opponent early.
In terms of the test series, whilst 10-0 seems a completely ridiculous over-exaggeration, I have to admit that England are looking good to retain the Ashes on home soil. This is unusual coming from me, as I am usually such a pessimist about English sport, refusing to believe the hype that all too often surrounds our national teams. In this case, I have to agree with the evidence, and whilst a whitewash seems a step too far, a series win is certainly not out of the question. I look forward to the rest of the Ashes, and hope that rain plays no part in this summer's contest!
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