PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Leicester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City

Last season
The greatest shock in sporting history. Everyone, including myself, said they couldn't keep it up, that they would fold under the pressure. However, this just seemed to galvanise Claudio Ranieri's team, with the likes of Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kante catching the eye with their consistency and flair.

In the end, they ran out comfortable winners, leading Arsenal by 10 points to claim their first league title in their history, and ensure Gary Lineker does the first Match of the Day in his underwear this season!

Backroom setup

Unsurprisingly, the Leicester board decided to keep Ranieri on this year, as well as the majority of his backroom staff. However, they did suffer a blow, seeing talent spotter Steve Walsh, behind the signings of some of their title-winning stars, poached by Everton.

Pre-season
A relatively short pre-season for the champions, but certainly testing! While they started and ended with relatively easier fixtures, with a 2-1 win against Oxford United and a XX over Chesterfield, they did have the season-opening Charity Shield match against Manchester United to contend with. However, in the middle was the little matter of the International Champions Cup, starting with a narrow 6-5 penalties win over Celtic after a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.

The latter two games were daunting, however, with Paris Saint Germain teaching the Foxes a footballing lesson in a 4-0 thrashing. They did put on a better showing in a 4-2 defeat against Barcelona, but were again exposed as inexperienced at the highest level, which will make their inaugural Champions League season an interesting one.

The Foxes' pre-season came to a close with the Charity Shield match against Manchester United. Despite a valient showing, the Foxes were on the back foot for the entirety of the game, with a Marouane Fellaini mistake enabling Jamie Vardy the opportunity to level at 1-1. However, a late Zlatan Ibrahimovic header meant that they didn't hold on, sinking to a 2-1 defeat.

Squad and signings

Most importantly for Leicester was retaining the talent that managed to get them to the title last year. While they have lost N'Golo Kante to Chelsea for £32m, both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez opted against joining Arsenal to remain with the Foxes.

In addition, Ranieri looked to strengthen further, bringing in a number of strong names from around Europe. Before the window had barely begun, Leicester had announced the signing of German goalkeeper Ron-Robert Zieler to challenge Kasper Schmeichel for the number 1 spot. Defenders Luis Hernandez and Napalys Mendy joined for free and £13m respectively from Sporting Gijon and Nice, while there were attacking reinforcements in Raul Rubio, Bartosz Kaputska and Ahmed Musa, again breaking the Foxes transfer record.

However, the main question is are these signings of a high enough quality to keep the Premier League's giants at bay this year?

Tactics
As champions, the Foxes will go into this season with just as much confidence, so the same tactics are likely to apply. Expect Leicester to avoid the ball more often than not, and look to provide counter-attacks with blistering speed. The signing of Musa will certainly aid in this, with the pace to rival Jamie Vardy, as well as providing the ideal foil for Riyad Mahrez.

Predictions
Can the Foxes shock the world again? In my opinion, no. They will certainly command greater respect than at the start of last year, but I would expect to see Leicester fall back into the upper mid-table, with a challenge for Europa League football probably the best they can expect. With an increasingly congested fixture list thanks to the Champions League, I just don't think the squad is deep enough to compete with the top teams, and will see them consolidate their status this year.

Final position: 7th

Ten Things I've Missed Blogging This Year

As I set out in a post a few weeks ago, my blog has been more than a little erratic over the last 12 to 18 months as I look to piece certain things back together. To read more about my psychology, click here, but in this post, I wanted to provide my belated opinion on ten of the year's top sporting stories that I never got the opportunity to cover.

This has been separated into the sports that I have previously blogged on, but in the last year I have got into a number of new sports, some of which will be covered here.

Football

1. Leicester win Premier League

I kind of had to do this. Arguably the greatest footballing story in the history of the English game, the ultimate in underdog stories came to fruition this year. While I did give my opinion on the exploits of Jamie Vardy (both in the positive and negative sense) late last year, I never looked at the collective achievement of the squad as a whole.

I suppose here, more than in any other story, there is very little I can say that is new. When you consider that the biggest shock in the Spanish La Liga in recent years was the title winning side from Atletico Madrid, that highlights the scale of the accomplishments. In my mind, the only comparable previous event in recent memory is the Montpellier success in the French league in 2012, but even that pales in comparison to the dramatic turnaround in fortunes.

Without a doubt, momentum played a crucial role, but the performances of a number of individuals was simply outstanding. Whether that's the consistency of signing of the season N'Golo Kante, or the moments of magic from Riyad Mahrez, the Foxes have had quality across the field all season, and thanks to everyone else throwing it away, Leicester run out deserved winners.

2. FIFA implodes and Sepp Blatter found guilty

Who saw this coming? I don't mean in the sense of FIFA's corruption - I'm not naive. We've all known the frankly ridiculous levels of bribes, backhanders and 'favours for the boys' that Blatter and the rest of his cronies have been taking part in. What I didn't expect was for them to be caught, as everyone seemed to be content with the incompetence.

However, what made this moment among the best of the last 12 months was the reaction of comedian Lee Nelson. Though I've never been much of a fan of Nelson's work (his humour always seemed a little too slapstick and PR stunty to me), I have to say his idea at a press conference involving Blatter last year was absolutely brilliant. Having managed to sneak his way into the audience, Nelson took the opportunity to throw a huge wad of cash over the disgraced FIFA chief in one of the most iconic images of the scandal. Though he was instantly arrested as a suspected terrorist, he created a moment that resonated around the world, and highlighted, for the first time, the public opinion of the issue.

3. Footballers as role models: the Adam Johnson story

Like the Leicester story, there is very little that I can add to this story in terms of opinion, as my reaction to this story was much the same as everyone else's - a mixture of disgust and sympathy for the victim. What the latest in a long line of criminal cases against entitled footballers with no concept of other people demonstrates is a point I raised in my first 'Bitesize Rants' post, namely, that footballers should not be considered role models for children, as they have proven time and time again they do not deserve the moniker.

What makes this story particularly abhorrent is the way that both Johnson and the world of football treated his arrest and subsequent case. While I am the first person to stand behind the phrase 'innocent until proven guilty', and it irritates me no end that rape is the only crime where the burden of proof is on the defendant, if you are under investigation for a crime and you have a job in the public eye, you should really be ineligible for selection until the matter is concluded. By all means continue to pay them and treat them the same, but more to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation, you have to ensure they are not being put in the public eye. If it was up to me, no-one would ever be named as a suspect until after they are convicted, but that simply isn't the world we live in.

With this in mind, it is therefore mindless that Sunderland continued to play the winger, and in light of his guilty plea since, only makes the Wearside club look callous and morally bankrupt, willing to play and support a sex offender to gain an advantage. What makes the story even worse is that Adam Johnson, despite knowing he was guilty and about to submit a plea, continued to milk the North East club for all they were worth in wages.

Formula 1

4. Hamilton and Rosberg become best of enemies

Having grown up together through karting and junior formulas, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg formed a close friendship, racing hard but fair and keeping the work away from their friendship. However, like any soap storyline, all friendships inevitably come to an end. Unlike the soap, there were no affairs, illegalities or betrayals, but pure competition.

The breakdown of the relationship started with Rosberg, clearly frustrated at trailing Hamilton in the championship, outbreaking himself in qualifying at the Monaco grand prix in a move reminiscent of the famous Schumacher Rascasse-gate. Further fuel was added to the fire in Belgium, when an angry Rosberg committed the gravest sin in Formula 1 - deliberately hitting your teammate.

After Hamilton's procession to the title last year, the relationship seemed to have settled between the pair to a healthy rivalry. That was until the Spanish grand prix a few weeks ago. Having taken one another out on the first lap, the two very quickly pointed the finger at one another, again stoking the flames and setting the season up for a fiery rivalry.

Tennis

5. Serena completes year grand slam

As much as I hate her hypocritical, have your cake and eat it too, standard feminist mentality, Serena Williams did something amazing last year. To win a Grand Slam is an impressive achievement, but to win all four in the same year is quite extraordinary. She will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the best ever tennis players and dominant champions - it's just a shame about her personality!

Cricket

6. That over...

We've all experienced the feeling where we want the world to open up and swallow us, but I certainly expect that Ben Stokes will have felt this more strongly than most earlier this year. To set the scene, England's cricket team, despite being roundly written off at the beginning of the tournament, and largely underwhelming in the early rounds, managed to perform a Leicester-esque run to the final. In their way stood West Indies, who had already beaten them before.

Having set a disappointing 155/9 in their 20 overs, England were seen as strong underdogs. However, a West Indian batting collapse put England on the brink of reclaiming the title they held in 2010. Step forward Ben Stokes, or more accurately Carlos Brathwaite. With an outlandish 19 required from six balls, Brathwaite smashed four successive sixes off the medium-pacer to claim the title for the West Indies in one of the most dramatic finishes.

Rugby

7. A typically English World Cup

Now, from a dramatic failure to an absolute aborration. The saying 'all good things come to an end' was emphatically proven on home soil last autumn, with our rugby team emulating the performances of the footballing side, and exiting early. The fact that it was a home World Cup only serves to make this point more humiliating, with England becoming the first home nation in the history of the tournament to fail to make it out of the group stages.

Others

8. Mayweather/Pacquiao - Can super fights ever live up to the hype?

When the news that unbeaten Floyd Mayweather, widely considered the greatest pound for pound boxer on the face of the planet, was to fight Filipino great Manny Pacquiao, the fight world went mad. Expectations that this was set to be the greatest fight of all time were far far wide of the mark, however. All I can say is that I am glad I didn't stay up to watch it. From what I've seen, it was 12 rounds of Floyd applying his typical counter punching style, and Pacquiao treading water while he attempted to connect.

Quite often, the best fights do not involve two high ranked individuals, as 'super fights' tend to come with a lot of additional pressure. A high profile loss, especially in emphatic circumstances, can have  a dramatic effect on a boxer's legacy, so it is unsurprising that neither of them left it all in the ring.

It may well have an impact the next time the boxing organisers want to arrange a fight of this size too!

9. Tyson Fury offends everyone

Staying with boxing, Manchester's Tyson Fury shocked the world with his decision win over Wladimir Klitschko. However, rather than just enjoying his victory and rising fame, Fury decided to take a new and different approach - offend everyone he can.

In between making sexist, racist, transgenderist and homophobic statements in public, Fury has also suggested that performance-enhancing drugs should be permitted in boxing. Though he has apologised for any offence caused, I'm still not quite sure how genuine that is. An isolated incident may be able to be forgiven, but multiple occasions makes it a lot less likely that it is true regret.

10. MMA explodes

Last, but by no means least, is the emergence of a sport until recently I had no real knowledge of. Perhaps it is my own ignorance, but it is only in the last few months that the world of MMA has taken an sort of impact on my consciousness. However, ever since watching my first few fights, I have become addicted, and have spent more hours than I care to mention watching old videos and current events.

I'm sure I will be writing enough on this sport in the near future, but the main reason the sport has exploded in this part of the world in the last 12-18 months is Irishman Conor McGregor. Having sensationally burst onto the UFC scene, he captured the company's Featherweight championship in December 2015, beating Brazilian legend Jose Aldo, unbeaten in the last 10 years, in just 13 seconds.

Having lost to Nate Diaz at UFC 196, choosing to go up two weight classes to take on the Stockton native, McGregor has become a global superstar, spending hours on interviews and media to hype fights and talk trash. However, this spectacularly backfired a couple of months ago, with an argument with the UFC over the amount of mandatory PR the Irishman had to do caused McGregor to post the following on Twitter:

Well, the MMA world went mad. Such was the reaction from the fans, McGregor was forced to retract the statement 48 hours later, stating that it had all been a demonstration of the pull and influence that he has over social.

Despite numerous negotiations, the issue seems to be ongoing, despite the announcement that the rematch between McGregor and Diaz is set for UFC 202 - a month later than originally planned.

So there's my top 10 sporting memories over the last 12 months - have I missed any? And what are yours?

Jamie Vardy: How Does Fantastic Mr Fox Rank?

As someone who frequently places bets on the weekend's action, I shudder to think the odds that last weekend's achievement would have drawn at the start of the season. To score in three straight games is a run of good form for any striker, but to do it in 10 is nothing short of extraordinary.

And if that wasn't enough, Jamie Vardy has done it in a side hardly recognised as world-beaters. Ok, the fact that Leicester currently sit proudly atop the Premier League seems to undermine that argument somewhat. However, speaking of odds, I wonder what bookies would have laid on the Foxes topping the table after 12 games? My point is, few would have ever expected that the side that struggled to escape relegation last term would have found within their midst a true Premier League predator capable of this feat.

However, ever the cynic, I feel the need to dampen the enthusiasm of Leicester fans who will undoubtedly proclaim Jamie Vardy's goalscoring run the 'greatest of all time' - let's just hope they can do it in a more intelligent way than the current chant of 'Jamie Vardy's having a party'. Lyrical genius... And we wonder why the music industry is dumbing down!

Let's start by looking at the man whose record he could usurp if he nets against Manchester United next weekend: ironically enough, United hitman Ruud van Nistelrooy. Now, in order to gauge the achievements of the pair, and accurately compare them, we have to understand the circumstances under which they were done. I have already mentioned the fact that Vardy has completed this nine game run in a side hardly recognised as a league leader, while van Nistelrooy was part of the United side that bulldozed its way through everyone in the early 2000's. So, on the face of it, 1-0 Vardy, right?

Well, I wanted to delve a little deeper than that. It is also worthwhile considering the opponents that these goals came against. To score nine games in a row is impressive regardless, but scoring against eight of the top ten in the league is certainly more so than knocking in goals against the lesser sides.

When looking at van Nistelrooy's run, we see he scored 15 goals in his 10 games, with hat tricks against Fulham and Charlton, and a brace at home to Liverpool. In those games, he scored against the sides in 14th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 10th, 12th, 7th, 8th and 5th. If we were to average this out, it equates to 7th place - a pretty impressive feat for anyone. If we compare this with Jamie Vardy's recent form, we see quite a different story. His ten games have him scoring 12 goals, with braces against Arsenal and Southampton - ironically the two most difficult sides the Foxes have faced during this run. The teams he has scored against currently sit in 19th, 20th, 11th, 4th, 16th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 13th and 17th, giving Vardy an average of 13th place. I think this is emphatically 1-1.

There are a few more important factors to take into account. Firstly, it's worth noting that van Nistelrooy's run did come over two different seasons, with the last two games the start of the 2003/2004 season. I'm not sure if that removes a little of the gloss off his achievement or adds to it. On the one hand, it could have taken pressure off the Dutchman towards the end of the run, as he may not have remembered his strong form at the start of the new year. However, it could also be the case that it made it more difficult, as momentum and form plays a huge part in the continuing success, and any break in time could have an adverse effect on the mindset of the striker involved.

However, if this was going to be a negative, we should certainly bear in mind the fact that, including all competitions, Ruud van Nistelrooy actually went on a 12 game scoring streak in 2003. This was the previously mentioned eight Premier League games, in addition to Champions League goals, both home and away, against Real Madrid, and goals for Holland against the Czech Republic and Moldova. He therefore completed both a long term run based on momentum, and a run over the course of two seasons.

In comparison, if other competitions were included in Jamie Vardy's current run, the striker would only actually have managed a four game scoring streak, as Premier League games were punctuated by goalless appearances in the Capital One Cup and the England team. Is that really so impressive?

It certainly isn't when we compare it to the all-time greats, and longest scoring streaks. Josef Bican's incredible 19-game run for Slavia Prague has been going strong since 1939, only matched by Lionel Messi (who else) in 2013. Some argue that as Messi was then injured and never got the chance to continue the record, we will never know how far he could have gone, and some even count the two goals he scored immediately after his return as part of the record, but I don't buy it.

To put it in perspective, should we even be that overawed by the achievement of scoring in 10 straight? Below is the list of the 10 longest goal streaks in history, all of whom have gone significantly beyond the feat achieved in the Premier League:

Longest goalscoring runs in history:
19: Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona 2012–13)
19: Josef Bican (SK Slavia Praha 1939–40)
16: Gerd Müller (FC Bayern München 1969–70)
16: Teodor Peterek (Ruch Chorzów 1937–38)
15: Filip Johansson (IFK Göteborg 1924–25)
15: Tor Henning Hamre (FC Flora Tallinn 2003)
15: Fin Døssing (Dundee United FC 1964–65)
14: Fernando Gomes (FC Porto 1984–85)
13: Serge Masnaghetti (Valenciennes FC 1962–63)
13: Peter Dubovský (ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1991–92)
13: Tom Phillipson (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1926–27)

With this in mind, Jamie Vardy's run is the best moment of his career so far, and certainly warrants congratulations, but as with so many things, we have a tendency to get carried away by feats, particularly when completed by an Englishman. However, Vardy needs to go some to match the greatest ever, and I'd argue that he needs to consistently score against better opposition to be considered alongside Ruud van Nistelrooy as a top striker. Hang on, I'm sure I came to a similar conclusion about another overrated English striker...

In any case, while I hope I'm proven wrong, I do fully expect this run to come to an end against Manchester United this weekend. United have proven their ability to mark better players than Vardy out of the game, and I suspect the Foxes will find it much harder to score. He may still finish as top scorer this season, but at some point in the season, he will have a lean spell and it is always the mark of a good striker to see how he recovers from that.

2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Who's Heading Down? (Relegation)

And so I come to my final post in this series. After discussions around the title race and the battle for a Champions League spot, I now come to the one that often ends up being the least predictable: relegation. Last year was no exception, with Newcastle coming perilously close to the drop after a simply horrific run of form towards the end of the season. However, it's my job in these posts to attempt to predict them based solely on the fixtures, so let's give it a go.

Before we start, I'm going to do a quick run through my choices for the sides that will be contesting the bottom three places. In my opinion, it all comes down to six teams. As at least one relegated side has been relegated for all bar two seasons this century, I'll include all three of the newly promoted sides, as well as others I believe to be vulnerable to relegation this year, namely Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom. You may have noticed that I've not included either Newcastle or Aston Villa, both of whom only narrowly evaded relegation last season. However, Aston Villa's upturn in form towards the back end of the season, along with the law of averages that suggests that Newcastle simply can't collapse in the same way they did last season, means that I don't believe either will be seriously fighting the drop this year.

So, now we've got our constituents, what do the fixtures say? Starting with the opening five, we can see an interesting variety of difficulties when it comes to fixtures. For instance, compare the opening fixtures for West Brom - Manchester City (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (a) and Southampton (h) - with Sunderland's - Leicester (a), Norwich (h), Swansea (h), Aston Villa (a), Tottenham (h). Though the Black Cats do have some difficult games, there is nothing like the two top sides in the league and a difficult away trip to Stoke! Leicester's games are not too dissimilar to Sunderland's, with the starter against the North East club, before games at West Ham, at home to Spurs, away at Bournemouth and at home to Aston Villa.

Meanwhile, our new Premier League sides all have mediocre starts, with both challenging and easier games in their opening five. Watford have away games at Everton and Manchester City, as well as hosting West Brom, Southampton and Swansea. Norwich have a trip to St Mary's to contend with, in addition to hosting Stoke. Finally, Bournemouth's first season in the top flight sees them travel to Anfield, Norwich and West Ham, as well as hosting Leicester and Aston Villa.

In my opinion, the order is relatively simple - West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Sunderland.

As we move towards Christmas, the fixtures get brutal, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the relegation battle. For example, Leicester may be lucky to get three points out of their run of Chelsea (h), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (h), while Watford may also struggle with their Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester City (h). To be fair, no-one has a particularly easy ride, with West Brom perhaps the best placed to take advantage, but even they have to navigate tricky trips to Liverpool and Swansea, while hosting Newcastle, Stoke and Bournemouth.

Bournemouth may also see Christmas as a key moment, with an opportunity to claim some points. Starting with a home tie with Manchester United, they then travel to West Brom before hosting Crystal Palace. A trip to the Emirates follows, before going to Leicester on New Years' Day. Meanwhile, Norwich start their games with Everton at home and Manchester United and Spurs away, before home ties against Aston Villa and Southampton. Finally, Sunderland have three horrible games sandwiched by winnable ones. Starting with a home game against Watford, the Black Cats then travel to both of last year's top two, Chelsea and Manchester City, before hosting Liverpool. They finish the festive period with a game at home to Aston Villa, which could provide some respite.

This order is considerably more difficult, with many of the teams suffering during this period. Nevertheless, this is my order: Leicester, Watford, Sunderland, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom.

In the latter stages of the season, every point is critical. Therefore, the final five games are absolutely critical, and can ruin an entire year. Again, like the Christmas period, some clubs haven't been fortunate at all. In particular, I feel for Leicester, Bournemouth and Norwich. After a horrible Christmas period for the Foxes, they end their season with home ties against both West Ham and Swansea, before a horrible triple header of Manchester United (a), Everton (h) and Chelsea (a). Similarly, Norwich start with two, albeit slightly easier, home ties against Sunderland and Watford, before travelling to Arsenal, hosting Manchester United and making the trip to Everton. In contrast, Bournemouth start with horrible home ties against Liverpool and Chelsea, before travelling to Everton, hosting West Brom and then a killer tie at Manchester United on the final day.

Outside of those three, all have a couple of tricky ties, with a few games in which they can recoup some points. Sunderland have both Arsenal and Chelsea at home, as well as the tricky trip to Stoke, but they also have games against both Norwich and Watford. Similarly, West Brom have home games against West Ham and Liverpool, as well as a trip to Tottenham, but also playing Watford and Bournemouth. Finally, Watford probably have the easiest task, playing many of the sides around them, namely West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland, as well as a home tie with Aston Villa and a trip to Liverpool.

If the easiest is easy, the rest is fairly tricky, but this is the order that I have picked for the final five: Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, West Brom, Watford.

So, when all is said and done, who is set for the drop (according to the fixtures)? Well, if we add up the points, with six for the hardest and one for the easiest in each of the three periods, we can make a final table. Should there be even points, whoever has ended up at the highest end in terms of difficulty in any of the three periods will be considered at a disadvantage. With this in mind, here is the final order, as it would be in the table:

15th - Sunderland (8 points)
16th - West Brom (9 points)
17th - Norwich (11 points - top spot 3rd)
18th - Watford (11 points - top spot 2nd)
19th - Bournemouth (11 points - top spot 1st)
20th - Leicester (13 points)