Showing posts with label Sunderland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunderland. Show all posts

Friday, 12 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Sunderland

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
The inevitable great escape. Having occupied one of the bottom three slots more than any of their rivals (excluding the clearly doomed Aston Villa) last season, a change of management once again worked wonders for the Black Cats. Sam Allardyce, with all his experience of steering teams away from the drop, did exactly the same on Wearside. Even sweeter for Sunderland, it was their local rivals Newcastle that took their place in the second tier!

Backroom setup
However, the success experienced by Allardyce came at a cost for the Black Cats. Following the inept showing of the national team at Euro 2016, Allardyce had made it clear that he would be interested in replacing Roy Hodgson as England coach. After a brief interview period, which included the likes of Steve Bruce, Big Sam was selected as Hodgson's replacement, throwing the Wearside club back into uncertainty.

However, one relegation battle expert was replaced by another, with the appointment of David Moyes. Despite suffering a torrid time at Manchester United and Real Sociedad, Moyes has demonstrated his ability to manage in the Premier League, keeping Everton afloat and leading them to Europe in his 10 years in charge at Goodison. He will certainly look to stamp his authority on Sunderland early to get them pulling in the right direction.

Pre-season
Despite the uncertainty and backroom turmoil, the on-field staff seem to have not been affected, remaining unbeaten throughout their pre-season campaign. In particular, the squad finished with creditable 1-1 draws with both Montpellier and Borussia Dortmund, highlighting the strength of character at the club.

Before the marquee matches, the Black Cats had racked up four consecutive victories on their travels, both in the UK and France. Having started with a comfortable 3-0 win at Hartlepool, which saw Jermain Defoe blitz two in fifteen minutes, Sunderland edged out Rotherham in a 2-1 victory. Having travelled to the continent, two Duncan Watmore penalties saw them surpass Stade Nyonnais, before a tight 3-2 win over Dijon.

Squad and signings
Amidst all the chaos and confusion, little has been done in the way of signings so far this year, and the squad remains largely as it was at the end of last season. The club has made a couple of defensive signings, with the additions of Chelsea defensive reject Papy Djilobodji for £8m, as well as raiding Manchester United's youth team for Paddy McNair and Donald Love in a deal worth an estimated £5m. Moyes has also made it clear he would be interested in signing both Adnan Januzaj and Marouane Fellaini from Manchester United, but concedes the latter may well be too expensive.

The most high profile exit of the window so far has to be that of Emmanuele Giaccherini, despite an outstanding Euro 2016 with Italy. Having spent the majority of his time at Sunderland away from the Black Cats, he finally made his move back to Italy permanent with a £2m switch to Napoli. Santiago Vergini also made his way back to his native land in a £1.5m move to Boca Juniors, while there were free transfers for Danny Graham, Wes Brown and Steve Harper.

Tactics
Standard David Moyes tactics require the addition of a muscular man for target practice, having favoured the likes of Victor Anichebe and Yakubu in his Everton days. The acquisition of Fellaini would certainly cover that off, but may hinder the success of Jermain Defoe, who has proven positively prolific since his move to Wearside. That said, the bite in the midfield will remain in the form of Lee Cattermole, while I expect Wahbi Khazri to play a key role over the next 12 months.

Predictions
They will inevitably avoid relegation - it's just what they do. With Moyes at the helm, I actually expect them to to it more comfortably than last time. Not much more, but with a few games to spare.

Final position: 15th

Wednesday, 3 August 2016

England Managers: What Does An Illustrious Club Career Actually Mean?

After the aberration of England's Euro 2016 exit to Iceland, it was clear that the tenure of Roy Hodgson was over. Cue a narrow, and slightly xenophobic search for England's next manager. From, let's be honest, a rather shallow pool of candidates, came the rather underwhelming announcement of Sam Allardyce. The ex-Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham, Blackburn and Sunderland manager has never really hit the heights in his club career, but was given the top job regardless.

However, how important is a successful club manager in the international game? To figure this out, I've looked back at the past 25 years of successful and failed England managers to compare their win rates, which should hopefully highlight a discernible trend.


Name
Clubs managed (pre-England)
W
D
L
Win rate
England win rate
Tournament high
Kevin Keegan
Newcastle United, Fulham
176
63
73
56.4%
38.89%
Group stage Euro 2000
Fabio Capello
AC Milan, Real Madrid, Roma, Juventus
311
165
79
56%
66.67%
R16 World Cup 2010
Sven Goran Eriksson
Goteborg, Benfica, Roma, Fiorentina, Sampdoria, Lazio
402
205
157
52.6%
59.7%
QF World Cup 2002, Euro 2004, World Cup 2006
Graham Taylor
Lincoln, Watford, Aston Villa
372
210
237
45.4%
47.3%
Group stage Euro 1992
Terry Venables
Crystal Palace, Queens Park Rangers, Barcelona, Tottenham Hotspur
297
193
183
44.1%
47.83%
SF Euro 1996
Sir Bobby Robson
Fulham, Ipswich
326
182
241
43.5%
49.47%
SF World Cup 1990
Roy Hodgson
18 clubs and countries, inc Inter Milan, Switzerland, Copenhagen, Liverpool
403
285
257
42.6%
58.93%
QF Euro 2012
Steve McClaren
Middlesbrough
97
60
93
38.8%
50%
Qualification Euro 2008
Glenn Hoddle
Swindon Town, Chelsea
102
86
84
37.5%
60.71%
R16 World Cup 1998

Looking at the statistics, it's interesting to see that arguably the three most successful England managers of the past quarter of a century (Sir Bobby Robson, Terry Venables and Sven Goran Eriksson) do not top the table when it comes to either club win rate, or indeed England win rate, with Fabio Capello and Glenn Hoddle, at the bottom when it comes to his club career, actually topping the England win percentage table.

From the table above, it certainly appears that there is no real rhyme or reason behind the club/national win ratios. It's absolutely not the case that the higher your win rate in club football, the higher your England win rate, or the more successful your career. If anything, it's slightly the opposite. Not so much in terms of percentages, but in terms of tournament performance, with the only semi final appearances in the last quarter century coming from individuals that have around 45 per cent win rates. However, the three below Venables and Robson have hardly done well in tournaments!

Interestingly, Sam Allardyce's current club win ratio stands at around 39 per cent across his time at a number of clubs including Bolton, Blackburn, Newcastle, Sunderland and West Ham United. I know we've just proven that this ultimately means very little, but it's interesting to see that he's not too far from the percentage of Steve McClaren at Middlesbrough (and we all know how that turned out!).

On a separate note, I'm always rather bemused by the immediate assumption that we'll only pick an Englishman. Why? One of our more successful managers of the last quarter of a century was foreign, and given the following couple of white, middle aged, dull Englishmen ultimately failing (ignoring the tumultuous reign of Fabio Capello), I don't understand why it isn't considered. It would be completely understandable to pick an Englishman if we invested in young talent for the long term. For example, my pick for the job was Bournemouth's Eddie Howe. Now, I know this is possibly asking too much in today's game, but give him as much time as he needs (almost regardless of results in the short term), because as Man United proved, only through patience can you reach your potential.

Alternatively, there was a Premier League winner available, with a management style that would certainly suit the typically reserved English style. Manuel Pellegrini has shown himself to value attacking and free-flowing football, which would certainly resonate with the English fans following the arguably defensive style of Roy Hodgson, while also being astute and softly spoken in interviews.

However, there is no use crying over spilt milk (a phrase I've never really understood the origins of - I mean, who's that upset at the concept of wasted calcium?), so we have to work with what we've got i.e. Big Sam. With him at the helm, and uncertainty already around the captaincy, who do we see coming into the squad, given his previous playing styles? Obviously, a lot will rest on form, but all things being even, this is my prediction for his first 25-man England squad:

Goalkeepers: Joe Hart (Manchester City), Fraser Forster (Southampton), Jack Butland (Stoke City)

Defenders: Danny Rose (Tottenham Hotspur), Aaron Cresswell (West Ham United), Chris Smalling (Manchester United), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), John Stones (Everton), Phil Jagielka (Everton), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), Nathaniel Clyne (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Tottenham Hotspur)

Midfielders: Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Mark Noble (West Ham United), James Milner (Liverpool), Eric Dier (Tottenham Hotspur), Adam Lallana (Liverpool), Ross Barkley (Everton), Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)

Strikers: Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Jamie Vardy (Leicester City), Jermain Defoe (Sunderland), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Andy Carroll (West Ham United)

Friday, 3 June 2016

Bitesize Rants #3: Rival Relegation

I felt it was strange that the cheers on Wearside were louder for Newcastle’s demise than the fact that they had managed to secure survival.

As a Manchester City fan for as long as I can remember, I can certainly admit to a bit of schaedenfreude when it comes to the team from Salford – I have certainly enjoyed them being knocked off their pedestal over the last five years or so as the blues have made their meteoric rise.

This feeling of satisfaction comes from a generation of oppression and domination by the red half of the city. My memories of the competition between the two growing up was interspersed between regular relegations for my side, and when they did take to the pitch together, all too often there was only going to be one outcome. Needless to say, it made my school days at times difficult as I tried to defend myself from the merciless mickey-taking!

However, as City have embarked on a revolutionary journey in recent years, the balance has shifted, and until recently, had been on an eight match winning streak against United. In the most recent games between the pair, they have established an extremely healthy competition, with both trading victories and creating interesting and balanced matches. As a result, while I’d never actively wish success on them, I think I’d miss the competition and local intrigue created if they were relegated.

That’s why I don’t understand it in the rivalry between Newcastle and Sunderland. Having lived in the North East for three years, I experienced the strength of feeling between the two cities, and the rivalry on the pitch. However, unlike the city of Manchester derby, there has been no one side that has historically dominated in their rivalry, never mind English football, and therefore fans cannot point to years of humiliation and oppression for their reason behind wishing the other was relegated.


In my eyes, no derby means less excitement for the rest of the season, so while Sunderland fans can celebrate the relegation of the Magpies for the moment, I’m sure even the most hardcore of fans will find next year more boring as a result.