And so I come to my final post in this series. After discussions around the title race and the battle for a Champions League spot, I now come to the one that often ends up being the least predictable: relegation. Last year was no exception, with Newcastle coming perilously close to the drop after a simply horrific run of form towards the end of the season. However, it's my job in these posts to attempt to predict them based solely on the fixtures, so let's give it a go.
Before we start, I'm going to do a quick run through my choices for the sides that will be contesting the bottom three places. In my opinion, it all comes down to six teams. As at least one relegated side has been relegated for all bar two seasons this century, I'll include all three of the newly promoted sides, as well as others I believe to be vulnerable to relegation this year, namely Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom. You may have noticed that I've not included either Newcastle or Aston Villa, both of whom only narrowly evaded relegation last season. However, Aston Villa's upturn in form towards the back end of the season, along with the law of averages that suggests that Newcastle simply can't collapse in the same way they did last season, means that I don't believe either will be seriously fighting the drop this year.
So, now we've got our constituents, what do the fixtures say? Starting with the opening five, we can see an interesting variety of difficulties when it comes to fixtures. For instance, compare the opening fixtures for West Brom - Manchester City (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (a) and Southampton (h) - with Sunderland's - Leicester (a), Norwich (h), Swansea (h), Aston Villa (a), Tottenham (h). Though the Black Cats do have some difficult games, there is nothing like the two top sides in the league and a difficult away trip to Stoke! Leicester's games are not too dissimilar to Sunderland's, with the starter against the North East club, before games at West Ham, at home to Spurs, away at Bournemouth and at home to Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, our new Premier League sides all have mediocre starts, with both challenging and easier games in their opening five. Watford have away games at Everton and Manchester City, as well as hosting West Brom, Southampton and Swansea. Norwich have a trip to St Mary's to contend with, in addition to hosting Stoke. Finally, Bournemouth's first season in the top flight sees them travel to Anfield, Norwich and West Ham, as well as hosting Leicester and Aston Villa.
In my opinion, the order is relatively simple - West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Sunderland.
As we move towards Christmas, the fixtures get brutal, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the relegation battle. For example, Leicester may be lucky to get three points out of their run of Chelsea (h), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (h), while Watford may also struggle with their Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester City (h). To be fair, no-one has a particularly easy ride, with West Brom perhaps the best placed to take advantage, but even they have to navigate tricky trips to Liverpool and Swansea, while hosting Newcastle, Stoke and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth may also see Christmas as a key moment, with an opportunity to claim some points. Starting with a home tie with Manchester United, they then travel to West Brom before hosting Crystal Palace. A trip to the Emirates follows, before going to Leicester on New Years' Day. Meanwhile, Norwich start their games with Everton at home and Manchester United and Spurs away, before home ties against Aston Villa and Southampton. Finally, Sunderland have three horrible games sandwiched by winnable ones. Starting with a home game against Watford, the Black Cats then travel to both of last year's top two, Chelsea and Manchester City, before hosting Liverpool. They finish the festive period with a game at home to Aston Villa, which could provide some respite.
This order is considerably more difficult, with many of the teams suffering during this period. Nevertheless, this is my order: Leicester, Watford, Sunderland, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom.
In the latter stages of the season, every point is critical. Therefore, the final five games are absolutely critical, and can ruin an entire year. Again, like the Christmas period, some clubs haven't been fortunate at all. In particular, I feel for Leicester, Bournemouth and Norwich. After a horrible Christmas period for the Foxes, they end their season with home ties against both West Ham and Swansea, before a horrible triple header of Manchester United (a), Everton (h) and Chelsea (a). Similarly, Norwich start with two, albeit slightly easier, home ties against Sunderland and Watford, before travelling to Arsenal, hosting Manchester United and making the trip to Everton. In contrast, Bournemouth start with horrible home ties against Liverpool and Chelsea, before travelling to Everton, hosting West Brom and then a killer tie at Manchester United on the final day.
Outside of those three, all have a couple of tricky ties, with a few games in which they can recoup some points. Sunderland have both Arsenal and Chelsea at home, as well as the tricky trip to Stoke, but they also have games against both Norwich and Watford. Similarly, West Brom have home games against West Ham and Liverpool, as well as a trip to Tottenham, but also playing Watford and Bournemouth. Finally, Watford probably have the easiest task, playing many of the sides around them, namely West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland, as well as a home tie with Aston Villa and a trip to Liverpool.
If the easiest is easy, the rest is fairly tricky, but this is the order that I have picked for the final five: Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, West Brom, Watford.
So, when all is said and done, who is set for the drop (according to the fixtures)? Well, if we add up the points, with six for the hardest and one for the easiest in each of the three periods, we can make a final table. Should there be even points, whoever has ended up at the highest end in terms of difficulty in any of the three periods will be considered at a disadvantage. With this in mind, here is the final order, as it would be in the table:
15th - Sunderland (8 points)
16th - West Brom (9 points)
17th - Norwich (11 points - top spot 3rd)
18th - Watford (11 points - top spot 2nd)
19th - Bournemouth (11 points - top spot 1st)
20th - Leicester (13 points)
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label Announced. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Announced. Show all posts
Tuesday, 30 June 2015
Monday, 29 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Invading The Continent (Champions League)
With the announcement of the Premier League fixtures, the rumour mills spins into overdrive about who is favourite for the big prizes - the title, the Champions League, and avoiding relegation. In my post yesterday, I outlined my opinion on who I believe is currently favourites for the Premier League title, based solely on the fixtures in the opening five games, the busy Christmas period, and the final five. This time, it's the turn of those sides competing for a place in the Champions League, namely Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton.
So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.
Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.
Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.
So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.
So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.
Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.
Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.
So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.
Sunday, 28 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Clash of The Cash (Title Race)
With the fixtures announced on Wednesday, that feeling of anticipation and excitement over the new season grows. The transfer window hasn't even opened yet, and people are already looking at the big derbies (with Aston Villa and West Brom particularly peeved that they didn't make the list) and making their predictions over the winners of the next Premier League title. Over the last couple of years, I've done blog posts looking at the fixtures, and using them to give an initial indication of who should be considered favourites. It's not particularly scientific, but it is interesting.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
Saturday, 27 July 2013
Premier League 2013/2014 Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Prediction Competition)
A few weeks ago, I did a series of posts analysing the major contests (title race, 4th place, relegation), and the way that (at the time) recently announced fixtures seemed to initially suggest the momentum was swinging. I had intended that series to be a 4-part series, as over the last couple of years, my dad and I have been developing a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with all of the fixtures for the Premier League season, designed to allow users to make predictions. I had intended to post my updated spreadsheet with the other three posts in the series. Unfortunately, due to both time constraints, and a couple of technical problems in my formula writing, this year's spreadsheet has taken me longer than expected to produce. I am pleased to report, however, that it is now fully operational, and can be found at the bottom of this post. This means that I can now, belatedly, bring you the fourth, and final post in my series about the Premier League fixtures.
I started developing this spreadsheet after doing a prediction competition within my family for the 2010 World Cup. The first year's Premier League sheet was fairly primitive, with little in the way of formulae or calculations. I enlisted the help of my dad, a PC expert, and Maths graduate for year 2. He helped my spreadsheet automatically assign points when the correct result is input, calculate the tables (without the need for several sheets of A4 and a pencil) and create other interesting statistical facts regarding the predictions (such as percentages, leads and monthly scores). My sheet is now thorough, simple to use, and comes with a lot of interesting stats and analysis, which I have found interesting to design, and even more interesting to use.
And so to this year, and the competition I am offering online. Since I started my blog a couple of months ago, I have been wanting to extend the number of users in my spreadsheet this year. Last year I found it worked far better with 5 than it did the first edition (when it was just me and my brother). So now I am uploading it onto here, so that anyone that wants to have a go can! I will briefly outline the rules in a second, but firstly, I just want to explain the layout, and the way you can enter. The spreadsheet is laid out in columns, with the first two being time and date related, the next six being the fixture itself, followed by five columns designed for a user's predictions. After that, there are another five columns that allow me to generate the current table as it happens. As you will see, there is a blank either side of the hyphen in the 'user' columns. This is where you can input your prediction for each of the fixtures in the rows. The differentiation between white and green indicates the beginning and end of each week of fixtures, allowing me to calculate weekly statistics more easily, and keep track of the season as it happens.
Entering could not be simpler. All you have to do is fill in the prediction column, with your name (or nickname) at the top and send it back to me at itsmorethanjustagameblog@gmail.com. I will then add your predictions to my master sheet, which will contain all users. Users can choose if they want to send me their predictions all in one go (as I tend to do, as I often forget to predict each week), or on a weekly basis. A separate competition will be undertaken between the two sets, to prevent anyone gaining an unfair advantage. For those who are sending me weekly updates, please note that if you do forget a week, or even an individual mid-week match, you will instantly be given 0 for that week. Please also remember to fill in your predicted top goalscorer and creator at the bottom of the sheet. This, for obvious reasons, must be done at the start of the season!
Now, for the rules of the competition. All entries must have been recieved (either for the whole season, or just the first week), by 12:00 noon GMT on the 17th August 2013. In terms of the way the points are allocated, a user recieves 1 point if they correctly predict the result (e.g. home win, away win, draw), regardless of the score, and they recieve 2 points if they accurately predict the exact scoreline. The user also recieves 5 points if they correctly predict the top goalscorer, and 5 points for the top creator. Both of these will be added to their final total. Obviously, the person with the highest number of points at the end of the season wins! Unfortunately, this is done purely for fun, so no prize will be awarded. This is just for those who want to get involved and test their prediction skills! I will be posting a weekly update on my blog of the running score totals, so keep an eye out for them!
If there is anything I haven't explained properly, or any other questions you have about the competition, please email me at the above address, and I would be happy to answer.
EXCEL SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3ZJeaoViDrNb0RXb2NQTV9pUXc/edit?usp=sharing
To open, click on link and then click on file and open through Google Sheets to input your scores.
I started developing this spreadsheet after doing a prediction competition within my family for the 2010 World Cup. The first year's Premier League sheet was fairly primitive, with little in the way of formulae or calculations. I enlisted the help of my dad, a PC expert, and Maths graduate for year 2. He helped my spreadsheet automatically assign points when the correct result is input, calculate the tables (without the need for several sheets of A4 and a pencil) and create other interesting statistical facts regarding the predictions (such as percentages, leads and monthly scores). My sheet is now thorough, simple to use, and comes with a lot of interesting stats and analysis, which I have found interesting to design, and even more interesting to use.
And so to this year, and the competition I am offering online. Since I started my blog a couple of months ago, I have been wanting to extend the number of users in my spreadsheet this year. Last year I found it worked far better with 5 than it did the first edition (when it was just me and my brother). So now I am uploading it onto here, so that anyone that wants to have a go can! I will briefly outline the rules in a second, but firstly, I just want to explain the layout, and the way you can enter. The spreadsheet is laid out in columns, with the first two being time and date related, the next six being the fixture itself, followed by five columns designed for a user's predictions. After that, there are another five columns that allow me to generate the current table as it happens. As you will see, there is a blank either side of the hyphen in the 'user' columns. This is where you can input your prediction for each of the fixtures in the rows. The differentiation between white and green indicates the beginning and end of each week of fixtures, allowing me to calculate weekly statistics more easily, and keep track of the season as it happens.
Entering could not be simpler. All you have to do is fill in the prediction column, with your name (or nickname) at the top and send it back to me at itsmorethanjustagameblog@gmail.com. I will then add your predictions to my master sheet, which will contain all users. Users can choose if they want to send me their predictions all in one go (as I tend to do, as I often forget to predict each week), or on a weekly basis. A separate competition will be undertaken between the two sets, to prevent anyone gaining an unfair advantage. For those who are sending me weekly updates, please note that if you do forget a week, or even an individual mid-week match, you will instantly be given 0 for that week. Please also remember to fill in your predicted top goalscorer and creator at the bottom of the sheet. This, for obvious reasons, must be done at the start of the season!
Now, for the rules of the competition. All entries must have been recieved (either for the whole season, or just the first week), by 12:00 noon GMT on the 17th August 2013. In terms of the way the points are allocated, a user recieves 1 point if they correctly predict the result (e.g. home win, away win, draw), regardless of the score, and they recieve 2 points if they accurately predict the exact scoreline. The user also recieves 5 points if they correctly predict the top goalscorer, and 5 points for the top creator. Both of these will be added to their final total. Obviously, the person with the highest number of points at the end of the season wins! Unfortunately, this is done purely for fun, so no prize will be awarded. This is just for those who want to get involved and test their prediction skills! I will be posting a weekly update on my blog of the running score totals, so keep an eye out for them!
If there is anything I haven't explained properly, or any other questions you have about the competition, please email me at the above address, and I would be happy to answer.
EXCEL SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3ZJeaoViDrNb0RXb2NQTV9pUXc/edit?usp=sharing
To open, click on link and then click on file and open through Google Sheets to input your scores.
Thursday, 20 June 2013
2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Champions League)
This week marked the announcement of the fixtures for the 2013/14 Premier League. Using the initial fixture list, this week I will be doing a series of four blog posts. The first three concern the potential impact of the fixtures on the races for the title, the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. In the final post in the series, I will be uploading a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, designed to allow people to get involved in my annual predictions competition. In this second, I will be assessing the fixture list, and analysing its potential impact upon the race for the final Champions League spot. This race has been fiercely fought over the last few years, with the rewards for qualifying particularly lucrative. Based on the last few years, it is relatively safe to assume that the primary contenders for the 4th place spot this year will be Arsenal, Tottenham and possibly Liverpool. Whilst I accept that anomalies may occur (Newcastle in 2012 springs to mind), these are incredibly difficult to predict, even with the influence of the fixtures. Nevertheless, where possible I will try, but I will be predominantly focusing on the three expected contenders.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.
Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.
The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.
Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.
Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.
Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.
Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.
Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.
The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.
Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.
Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.
Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.
Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.
Wednesday, 19 June 2013
2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Title Race)
After a mere 4 and a half weeks after the culmination of the 2012/2013 Barclays Premier League season, our thoughts are once again thrust towards English football's most prestigious prize. With the unveiling of the fixtures for the coming season, analysts can begin to consider who could be on the move, both up and down. The main contenders for the title have seemingly already been pre-determined (Man City, Man United and possibly Chelsea), and at least one of the promoted sides have been favoured for the drop. The other two are normally decided by the difficulty of certain sides' fixtures at key times in the season. There will be four posts in the series about the recently published fixtures. This first post will outline the critical fixtures, and attempt to make initial conclusions on the title contenders based on the fixtures of the likely protagonists. The second and third posts will be similar in structure, but regarding the battle for the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. (I apologise if you happen to be a mid-table supporter, and thus feel neglected, but you may possibly count yourself lucky not to be involved in the relegation battle). The final post will be an invitation to take part in my yearly Premier League predictions. Having run the competition amongst family and friends for the last two years, I have decided to open it to whomever wished to participate. As a result, I will be attaching a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which includes the full fixture list, along with space to put your predictions down the side. I will explain the details in the later post.
For now, I will continue with my initial analysis of the upcoming Premier League season. Beginning with the title race, having outlined the three widely-acknowledged contenders, it is worth considering their fixtures. By assessing the first 5 fixtures, the fixtures at the busy Christmas period, and the run-in, including looking at the critical fixtures, we can make initial hypotheses about who should be considered favourites for the title. Champions Manchester United, having lost their talismanic manager at the end of last season, should certainly not be written off retaining their title, despite this loss. However, the Red Devils, and David Moyes, have a daunting start to 2013/2014 season. With a tricky away tie at Swansea to kick things off, they then host title rivals Chelsea. This will give the new man a real test of his title-winning credentials, and will perhaps show the extent of the gap left by Sir Alex Ferguson. The fixtures do not get any easier for the champions, with a North West derby at Anfield against historical rivals Liverpool. A quick break at home to Crystal Palace follows this, before the most anticipated game in English league football of recent years, the Manchester Derby, away at Manchester City. A baptism of fire for the former Everton manager, and one I am sure he will need to make a solid start on. A good set of results here will certainly give United a great foundation to build on, but defeats may cost them precious momentum.
City, runners-up in 2013, will be glad to start with a home game, giving them the opportunity to rectify the aberration at the end of last campaign, losing their final home game 2-3 to Norwich City. A visit from last season's under-achievers Newcastle, will certainly not be an easy one however, especially if their slow home start against Southampton last season is anything to go by. Manuel Pellegrini, similarly to David Moyes, will be looking to make a quick start to the campaign after his recent appointment at oil rich City, and with a number of big money signings, will be attempting to solidify his position. Two consecutive games against promoted sides may give the Citizens a chance to accrue some early points, especially in the home game against Hull, before a tricky trip to Stoke, a ground where City have failed to win on any of their previous 4 league fixtures. The Manchester Derby at the Etihad finishes City's opening 5, with the Citizens wanting to avoid the last minute heartbreak of last season. These fixtures perhaps allow City to ease into the season a little more than their rivals, though any slips will instantly see the pressure heaped onto the new man.
The final contenders, Chelsea, begin with a comfortable home tie against promoted Hull City, giving new manager Jose Mourinho a gentle re-introduction to English football. I doubt the 'Special One' will need much time to integrate, and a trip to Old Trafford will certainly bring Chelsea back to earth, giving them their first proper investigation. However, with Mourinho's positive record against United, and with the London club's spending power, this may be their first opportunity to stamp their authority on this season. Another winnable tie at home to last season's relegation threatened Aston Villa follows, before another tough away game against Roberto Martinez's Everton. They round off their opening 5 with a visit from London rivals Fulham. Like City, you would expect Chelsea to obtain a healthy number of points in this period, giving the new man a good chance to bed himself into the club. In this section, City appear to have the easiest of the fixtures, however United will have rid themselves of games against both of their main rivals, which could be a help or a hindrance to their season.
Moving onto the mid-season fixtures, it is important to look at the busiest time of the season to assess how the momentum may swing throughout the season. I will look at the fixtures from December 14th to January 1st, between which there will be 5 games. This is a period that Manchester United typically perform well in, and often base their success upon. However, consistent results often come hand-in-hand with a generous fixture list. United start this period with a winnable tie at Aston Villa, before hosting a tall West Ham side. A further two fortunate fixtures follow these, with consecutive away games at Hull and Norwich, before a difficult home game against Champions League chasing Tottenham. With the exception of the final game, United's fixture list in this critical part of the season could give them the valuable momentum they require. City, in contrast, begin this critical period with two testing visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, sandwiched around a trip to Fulham. A more straight-forward home game against Crystal Palace follows these, with City ending the period with a New Year's Day trip to Swansea, another tough challenge. This period may well end up being the defining feature of City's season, either pushing them towards the title, or potentially wrecking their aspirations. Chelsea's fixtures more resemble those of Man City, as after an initial visit from Crystal Palace, an examination at the hands of Arsenal, Swansea and then Liverpool will give the Blues little respite. Chelsea then begin 2014 with a trip to Southampton, a ground they famously lost at last season, and will be looking to rectify this campaign. In this period, United appear to have the upper hand, with their fixtures being relatively kind. Their rivals both have fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea, making Christmas a particularly stressful one this year.
Ending with the run-ins, Manchester United once again can consider themselves rather fortunate. With their only loseable game being a tasty affair at Goodison Park, which will see David Moyes's return to his old club, United have games against Hull, Norwich and Sunderland before ending with a winnable, but potentially banana-skin tie against Southampton. Certainly an opportunity for the champions to garner some momentum towards the end of the campaign. In contrast, Manchester City, once again, have a relatively tough run in. Kicked off with a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, City then host last season's over-achievers West Brom, before successive trips to Crystal Palace and then bogey side Everton. A relatively straight-forward final day looks on the cards at home to West Ham, but should it come down to that game, we have seen that nothing looks straight-forward when City are concerned. Finally, Chelsea's run-in probably ranks somewhere in between the two, visiting both Swansea and Liverpool, with a home tie against Sunderland in between. Two expected wins finish Chelsea's season, with Norwich and Cardiff rounding off what Mourinho will hope is a successful return. However, once again, Manchester United appear to have the simplest run-in on paper, though games are rarely played on paper.
I understand that these fixtures are subject to change based on television rights and other competitions, and therefore my predictions may be rendered irrelevant. Based on the fixtures as they have been announced, the analysis tends to suggest that United should be considered initial favourites to retain the title. I also recognise that in all probability, my analysis will prove to be completely wrong. But that is football.
For now, I will continue with my initial analysis of the upcoming Premier League season. Beginning with the title race, having outlined the three widely-acknowledged contenders, it is worth considering their fixtures. By assessing the first 5 fixtures, the fixtures at the busy Christmas period, and the run-in, including looking at the critical fixtures, we can make initial hypotheses about who should be considered favourites for the title. Champions Manchester United, having lost their talismanic manager at the end of last season, should certainly not be written off retaining their title, despite this loss. However, the Red Devils, and David Moyes, have a daunting start to 2013/2014 season. With a tricky away tie at Swansea to kick things off, they then host title rivals Chelsea. This will give the new man a real test of his title-winning credentials, and will perhaps show the extent of the gap left by Sir Alex Ferguson. The fixtures do not get any easier for the champions, with a North West derby at Anfield against historical rivals Liverpool. A quick break at home to Crystal Palace follows this, before the most anticipated game in English league football of recent years, the Manchester Derby, away at Manchester City. A baptism of fire for the former Everton manager, and one I am sure he will need to make a solid start on. A good set of results here will certainly give United a great foundation to build on, but defeats may cost them precious momentum.
City, runners-up in 2013, will be glad to start with a home game, giving them the opportunity to rectify the aberration at the end of last campaign, losing their final home game 2-3 to Norwich City. A visit from last season's under-achievers Newcastle, will certainly not be an easy one however, especially if their slow home start against Southampton last season is anything to go by. Manuel Pellegrini, similarly to David Moyes, will be looking to make a quick start to the campaign after his recent appointment at oil rich City, and with a number of big money signings, will be attempting to solidify his position. Two consecutive games against promoted sides may give the Citizens a chance to accrue some early points, especially in the home game against Hull, before a tricky trip to Stoke, a ground where City have failed to win on any of their previous 4 league fixtures. The Manchester Derby at the Etihad finishes City's opening 5, with the Citizens wanting to avoid the last minute heartbreak of last season. These fixtures perhaps allow City to ease into the season a little more than their rivals, though any slips will instantly see the pressure heaped onto the new man.
The final contenders, Chelsea, begin with a comfortable home tie against promoted Hull City, giving new manager Jose Mourinho a gentle re-introduction to English football. I doubt the 'Special One' will need much time to integrate, and a trip to Old Trafford will certainly bring Chelsea back to earth, giving them their first proper investigation. However, with Mourinho's positive record against United, and with the London club's spending power, this may be their first opportunity to stamp their authority on this season. Another winnable tie at home to last season's relegation threatened Aston Villa follows, before another tough away game against Roberto Martinez's Everton. They round off their opening 5 with a visit from London rivals Fulham. Like City, you would expect Chelsea to obtain a healthy number of points in this period, giving the new man a good chance to bed himself into the club. In this section, City appear to have the easiest of the fixtures, however United will have rid themselves of games against both of their main rivals, which could be a help or a hindrance to their season.
Moving onto the mid-season fixtures, it is important to look at the busiest time of the season to assess how the momentum may swing throughout the season. I will look at the fixtures from December 14th to January 1st, between which there will be 5 games. This is a period that Manchester United typically perform well in, and often base their success upon. However, consistent results often come hand-in-hand with a generous fixture list. United start this period with a winnable tie at Aston Villa, before hosting a tall West Ham side. A further two fortunate fixtures follow these, with consecutive away games at Hull and Norwich, before a difficult home game against Champions League chasing Tottenham. With the exception of the final game, United's fixture list in this critical part of the season could give them the valuable momentum they require. City, in contrast, begin this critical period with two testing visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, sandwiched around a trip to Fulham. A more straight-forward home game against Crystal Palace follows these, with City ending the period with a New Year's Day trip to Swansea, another tough challenge. This period may well end up being the defining feature of City's season, either pushing them towards the title, or potentially wrecking their aspirations. Chelsea's fixtures more resemble those of Man City, as after an initial visit from Crystal Palace, an examination at the hands of Arsenal, Swansea and then Liverpool will give the Blues little respite. Chelsea then begin 2014 with a trip to Southampton, a ground they famously lost at last season, and will be looking to rectify this campaign. In this period, United appear to have the upper hand, with their fixtures being relatively kind. Their rivals both have fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea, making Christmas a particularly stressful one this year.
Ending with the run-ins, Manchester United once again can consider themselves rather fortunate. With their only loseable game being a tasty affair at Goodison Park, which will see David Moyes's return to his old club, United have games against Hull, Norwich and Sunderland before ending with a winnable, but potentially banana-skin tie against Southampton. Certainly an opportunity for the champions to garner some momentum towards the end of the campaign. In contrast, Manchester City, once again, have a relatively tough run in. Kicked off with a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, City then host last season's over-achievers West Brom, before successive trips to Crystal Palace and then bogey side Everton. A relatively straight-forward final day looks on the cards at home to West Ham, but should it come down to that game, we have seen that nothing looks straight-forward when City are concerned. Finally, Chelsea's run-in probably ranks somewhere in between the two, visiting both Swansea and Liverpool, with a home tie against Sunderland in between. Two expected wins finish Chelsea's season, with Norwich and Cardiff rounding off what Mourinho will hope is a successful return. However, once again, Manchester United appear to have the simplest run-in on paper, though games are rarely played on paper.
I understand that these fixtures are subject to change based on television rights and other competitions, and therefore my predictions may be rendered irrelevant. Based on the fixtures as they have been announced, the analysis tends to suggest that United should be considered initial favourites to retain the title. I also recognise that in all probability, my analysis will prove to be completely wrong. But that is football.
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