Showing posts with label Simulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Simulation. Show all posts

Saturday, 19 April 2014

Tactics Talk: Chelsea v Sunderland

Lineups:

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Schwarzer, Azpilicueta, Cahill, Terry, Ivanovic, Ramires, Matic, Salah, Willian, Oscar, Eto'o

Sunderland (4-1-4-1): Mannone, Alonso, Brown, O'Shea, Vergini, Cattermole, Borini, Colback, Larsson, Johnson, Wickham

This game had enormous implications for both the top and bottom, and as a result, both sides put out strong sides. Despite Chelsea in action in mid-week against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League sem-finals, Jose Mourinho went with as positive a team as was available to him. With Eden Hazard still unavailable due to injury, Chelsea would be relying primarily on Oscar for creativity, with Salah and Willian applying pace out wide and on the break. The only other big omission was the lack of Petr Cech due to an unexplained illness. Thankfully for Chelsea, he is not expected to be out for the big European tie.

Sunderland, on the other hand, knew what their task was, having performed it so admirably at the Etihad Stadium just a few days ago. Holding Manchester City to a 2-2 draw in an absorbing encounter, similar tactics would need to be employed for Sunderland to get anything. And they needed something. With just a handful of games remaining, Sunderland's only chance to avoid the drop is in taking points from games they have no right to earn them in, and Wednesday's draw illustrated this. As a result, Gus Poyet began with the same team that started that tie, hoping for a similar response.

As you may have seen on Twitter, I am adding a new portion into these posts. As I tried, and failed to look at how FIFA would predict the Premier League, I will be using Twitter to provide commentary, and where possible, video footage, of FIFA simulations of games my Tactic Talk posts cover. For those of you that did not see the live feed before the match, Chelsea began the game strongly, hitting the post from their first attack. They dominated possession for the entirety of the first half, but found it hard to break down a stubborn Sunderland back line, with Mohamed Salah among those to go close. Just as it seemed as though Sunderland would make it to the break unscathed, Chelsea struck. On 37 minutes, a snapshot from Willian on the edge of the area was only parried by Mannone into the path of Nemanja Matic, who slid the rebound into the back of the net. More Chelsea pressure before the half time whistle led to nothing, and Sunderland went off having had a single shot and just 39% of possession.

The second half started in similar fashion, with Chelsea dominating the possession. Despite this, some excellent Sunderland defending prevented the Blues adding to their lead. With Chelsea's best chance coming from a set piece, with John Terry nodding wide from 6 yards, it seemed only a matter of time before they would strike. However, despite their dominance, Chelsea were hit with a sucker punch on 78 minutes. Having had very little in the way of presentable opportunities, a flowing move saw Borini slide a ball back from the edge of the penalty area for Marcos Alonso to rifle home the equaliser. Despite mounting Chelsea pressure in the final ten, Sunderland refused to cave, gaining them what would be a valuable point should it happen in reality.

In all honesty, I expected the FIFA simulation to be way off reality, with Chelsea seemingly able to walk over teams at Stamford Bridge. FIFA doesn't take into account the momentum that Chelsea have at home versus other teams, nor does it think about Mourinho's incredible 76-game unbeaten run at the Bridge. However, the opening ten minutes went down similarly to the simulation, with Chelsea having almost 70% possession as they pushed Sunderland back to the edge of their own area in the early going. Like the simulation, they struggled to break down the Black Cats' resilient defence. That was until they whipped a corner into the Sunderland box. The Black Cats have conceded 16 of their 56 goals from set pieces, and amidst the chaotic marking, Samuel Eto'o reacted quickly to volley the opener beyond Mannone. With the dominance of the Blues, I was confident that they would go on and win the game comfortably from here.

However, the reaction from Sunderland was almost instant, and like Chelsea, they took advantage of a set piece. Despite the ball being initially cleared, a shot from Marcos Alonso was only parried into the path of Connor Wickham. With the youngster in the form of his life, having scored two against Manchester City in midweek, he had no trouble lifting the ball gently over Mark Schwarzer and into the back of Chelsea's net to stun the home faithful. With the Wearsiders now with momentum, the game turned into an open and entertaining affair. This seemingly would suit Chelsea, but both sides were creating chances, with all wingers wanting to get forward at every opportunities. However, though Chelsea used Willian and Salah in equal measure to put Sunderland to the sword, Adam Johnson on Sunderland's right wing was cutting an anonymous figure, as the Black Cats favoured the creativity of Fabio Borini on the left.

First half hour: For all of Chelsea's possession, they were wasting chances and being kept at arms length by Sunderland. The strugglers had held onto everything the title chasers had to offer, and deservedly levelled.

As time ticked towards half time, Chelsea still could not find a way through, with their most dangerous moments coming off the back of set pieces. Try as they may, Sunderland just could not cope with marking from corners and free kicks, leading to an Eto'o header hitting Mannone and then the bar before dropping into the grateful keeper's gloves. The Cameroon striker was looking an increasingly frustrated figure, with Oscar in particular wasting a bagful of good positions to put the striker in. With Sunderland occasionally threatening, with Adam Johnson spurning the best chance, the game meandered to half time with the scores level, and neither really looking like changing this.

The one moment that could have changed the complexion came five minutes before the break, and epitomised the frustration coursing through the veins of the Chelsea players. Midfielder Ramires, who had been denied by a last ditch Sebastien Larsson header moments before, inexplicably thrust his forearm into the face of the Swedish midfielder. Fortunately for the Brazilian, he avoided a red card, however I would not be surprised to find that he is retrospectively banned for that incident.

The second half began as the first ended, with Chelsea dominating possession but lacking the cutting edge to find the second goal. Sunderland remained dangerous on the counter, with Borini continuing to pull the strings and Wickham putting in a strong centre forward's performance, but their attacks were becoming fewer and their midfield was beginning to slip back towards the defence. But their defence remained strong, with little in the way of chances conceded.

Second half hour: Still nothing to choose between the two sides, and it may take a bit of Jose Mourinho mastery or a horrendous mistake to choose between them. Neither could afford to lose, but a draw would not help either.

By the hour mark, Mourinho had seen enough, bringing in-form Demba Ba on for the ineffective and wasteful Oscar and Andre Schurrle on for Mohamed Salah in a like-for-like swap. Sunderland did made like-for-like swaps of their own, with Jozy Altidore and Emmanuele Giaccherini brought on for Wickham and the anonymous Johnson. With these changes, Chelsea upped the tempo. As a result, they began carving out chances as Sunderland's defence strained to cope. Demba Ba was the most wasteful, slipping at the critical moment after a cut-back. How critical that miss would prove to be.

With just ten minutes to go, a mistake from Cesar Azpilicueta proved critical. With Jozy Altidore bearing down on goal, the Spaniard slid in to try and get the ball out for a corner. Unfortunately for Chelsea, his clumsy challenge, whether contact or not, led the referee's assistant to put his flag across his chest and signalled a penalty. It was then left to Fabio Borini, the on loan Liverpool striker, to slide the ball past Schwarzer to give Sunderland the most unlikely of leads, especially given what happened in Manchester just a few days earlier.

And after the goal, the bombardment began. Cross after cross flew into the Sunderland box, with Chelsea desperately seeking an equaliser. But nothing would work, and the Black Cats would hold on for a historic victory, ending the 76-game winning streak of Mourinho in the process. An incredible feat, and one that may have great ramifications at both ends of the Premier League. Sunderland will go into their next game at home to Cardiff having taken four points from two of the best teams in the country on their own patch, while Chelsea slip further away from Liverpool at the top. I think this result kills their title ambitions, as even a win against the Reds will not suffice any more. In one of the most topsy-turvy seasons in history, this was another incredible twist, and one that will live long in the memory of Sunderland fans. Is the great escape on?

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

FIFA 14 Realism Series: Branching Out Into The World Of YouTube

                           This week, I will be doing a three-part mini series, celebrating and analysing the release of the most successful and popular football game series of all time. I am, of course, speaking of the immortal FIFA series. A franchise that has generated upwards of £3.7 billion since its inception in 1993, the game has made its way into the hearts (and homes) of football fans and gamers across the country. Last year's edition of the game has seen over 4.5 billion goals scored, and a staggering average of 13.3 million per day. The hotly anticipated release of their '14' version, which hit the shelves on Friday 27th September, sold over 2.5 million copies on the day of release. Having got my copy on the day, I have decided to see whether FIFA 14 can be considered to have achieved its primary objective: to be realistic. For Part 1, click here. For Part 2, click here.

                             The final installment in my FIFA 14 series will be relatively short, as all I am doing in this one is setting out my plans for over the next few months, and advertising my all new YouTube channel. With the success of my blog, and my interest in the realism of FIFA, I have decided to marry the two obsessions and start my own YouTube channel. Having begun my FIFA 14 version of the Premier League, where I am using a computer-simulation of each of the fixtures to determine the overall league table, I have realised that there are a couple of flaws to my experiment, and also a couple of areas that could be expanded. In my earlier post, I mentioned that the squads I will use for the entire season in my predictions are the best possible squads that each of the teams have available to them at any given time. This will inevitably not take into consideration injuries, suspensions etc, which is why I have had Luis Suarez playing from the start for Liverpool (not that it seems to have made any difference-the Reds have currently won only 1 of their opening 5 matches). Therefore, YouTube offers me a way to produce more realistic content to check immediately with live events.

                               My YouTube channel will consist predominantly of simulated FIFA 14 videos, with the main aim to determine the realism of the game. I will do this by uploading highlight package videos of two of the most intriguing looking Premier League fixtures of the week. However, unlike my blog's version, which due to time constraints can do nothing to edit the squads, the YouTube channel's videos will wait for the official team-sheets to be announced before beginning the simulation. I will then post the FIFA highlights on YouTube as the match is taking place (hopefully at around half time). This will prove that I have not been able to replay the match to make the result as true to life as possible, giving it an added air of authenticity. I want this to be as much of an experiment for me as it is for you, so rigging the result is not in my best interests.

                                This also opens up many more possibilities for me and the simulation. For example, I will now be able to simulate matches from all sorts of competitions, either domestic, continental or international. I will also be open to any suggestions. If anyone wants to make suggestions for upcoming videos, please use the comment section underneath my videos, or email me directly at itsmorethanjustagameblog@gmail.com. Whilst I will not be able to accommodate everyone's request, I will do my best to ensure that I put out the footage that the majority of the people will want to see. As a result I will be covering the major finals of every cup competition, and I will attempt to do as many of the Champions League and Europa League group and knockout round matches as possible. Looking forward, I will also be attempting to create videos of many of the World Cup games next summer (assuming that the teams involved are actually in the game!). I think that this opens up an extremely intriguing avenue for myself and my experiment, as the time constraints place additional pressure on me to get the results.

                                  So, where can you find this promising new channel? The link is http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6MI4LgdOaTJbmp4vK3dEZA. Alternatively, if you just search into YouTube: itsmorethanjustagame, you should find me. If anyone has any suggestions to improve my channel's design or content, please just drop me an email and I will try to change it. Whilst there is little of interest on the channel at the minute, I promise some good stuff will be coming soon! I hope to begin my videos within the next couple of weeks, so make sure you keep your eyes peeled!

Monday, 7 October 2013

FIFA 14 Realism Series: Can Video Games Mirror Reality?

                           This week, I will be doing a three-part mini series, celebrating and analysing the release of the most successful and popular football game series of all time. I am, of course, speaking of the immortal FIFA series. A franchise that has generated upwards of £3.7 billion since its inception in 1993, the game has made its way into the hearts (and homes) of football fans and gamers across the country. Last year's edition of the game has seen over 4.5 billion goals scored, and a staggering average of 13.3 million per day. The hotly anticipated release of their '14' version, which hit the shelves Friday 27th September, sold over 2.5 million copies on the day of release. Having got my copy on the day, I have decided to see whether FIFA 14 can be considered to have achieved its primary objective: to be realistic. For Part 1 click here.

                             For those of you who follow me on Twitter (@amhaywood), you will have seen my feed dominated with my newest project. I have decided to use the current Premier League fixtures to try and assess the realism of the game. Having already created a predictions spreadsheet, which I advertised here, I have the full 388 games being played in the Premier League this season readily available, along with the method of calculating the accuracy, and even comparing it to predictions sent in for my competition. This should give me some indication of just how realistic FIFA is compared to real life, as in the early weeks I will have something to compare it to immediately, whilst in later weeks I will be able to see if real life then mirrors the game. In this post, I will be explaining exactly how I am going about this test, and assessing the test's flaws etc, before examining my early season data to see how true to life it really is.

                                As I explained in the paragraph above, I will be using FIFA 14 to predict the Barclays Premier League scores from the season 2013/2014. Using the 'Kick Off' mode on the game, I will play as neither team, and allow the game to play out as though I were watching it on TV. I will then record the scores of each fixture into my pre-designed prediction spreadsheet (where it will automatically score it in line with the rules for my prediction competition: 1 for a correct result (HW, AW, D) and 2 for a correct scoreline), where it will then calculate the table as FIFA would predict it to happen. This way we could see an accurate representation of exactly how FIFA thinks the season will pan out. I will also be recording the goalscorers, so that we can see who FIFA believes the Golden Boot will go to this season.

                                 I have consulted the Internet in order to find the most realistic difficulty level to play the simulation at. The vast majority of comments have suggested that somewhere around the 'World Class' to 'Legendary' levels would be the most realistic in terms of gameplay and speed of the game. Having tested out both of these levels in numerous practice games, I have concluded that Legendary is the level that I will use for my test, as it tends to produce more chances and a more exciting game to watch. In terms of the half length, for obvious reasons (being too boring and too many goals), I have decided against playing the realistic 45 minutes a half, instead choosing six minute halves. Once again, the practice games suggest that this is the most entertaining game length. Other than that, I will allow FIFA to randomly select weather etc-all I will do is ensure that the time of year is correct, thereby reducing the chances of snow in a match in May!

                                  Whilst I will do my all to make sure that conditions are as realistic as possible, meaning that the test is as fair as I can make it, I acknowledge that there are flaws with my idea. Arguably the biggest one surrounds the selection of realistic squads. As I am planning to predict results with FIFA before they actually happen, there is no way that I can be expected to field accurate sides for every Premier League club. Therefore, what I have decided is this: I will put out the strongest possible team I can for each side, by ratings alone, ensuring that I am being as fair to all sides as possible. It does, however, mean that a mid-season injury crisis will not be picked up, nor will any January transfers. However, should there be significant transfer activity in the New Year window, I may revisit the idea of replaying the games with the updated squads, taking the results up to January 1st as given. If anyone has any suggestions as to the strongest side for their club, please feel free to leave a comment or send me an email to itsmorethanjustagameblog@gmail.com, and I will do my best to accomodate you.

                                   I did also have initial worries about the setup of the game, and whether the simulation would produce competitive matches, or whether the ball would just be stuck in the middle of the pitch for the 90 minutes. Certainly, on the last few FIFA games, whenever you try and play a simulated game, the score would normally end up a boring 0-0 draw, with little in the way of goalmouth action. Another worry was that due to the natural ranking of the teams, we would just see a table skewed in favour of those with a better rating. Both of these fears were allieviated just two games into my simulated season. My first game was the lunchtime kick-off between Liverpool and Stoke at Anfield. Under normal circumstances, a banker home win. In line with my rules, I even had Luis Suarez in the Liverpool line up, despite his 8 match ban for biting Branislav Ivanovic. Despite all of this, and early Reds dominance, a quick-fire double from Peter Crouch put the visitors 2-0 up at half time. Though Liverpool rallied, with Suarez scoring within 10 minutes of the restart, they couldn't find a way through the Potters' rearguard. An entertaining, and surprising start to the season.

                                      Better was yet to come, however. In the very next match, Arsenal took on Aston Villa at the Emirates. For anyone who remembers the fixture, it was a well-deserved, but shocking 3-1 away win. Whilst FIFA may have got the result wrong, the match I saw was no less entertaining. In a first half packed with goals, Arsenal raced into a 3-0 lead after just 15 minutes. My worries about the highly rated clubs beginning to peak, Villa fought back, dragging themselves back to 3-2 by 35 minutes. This was perfectly set up for the second half, until Giroud scored on the stroke of half time to give the Gunners that cushion back. After the breathless first half, the second was bound to be a little more leisurely, and that it was. A late goal from Agbonlahor set up a nervous finish, but Arsenal hung on. Whilst FIFA had got the opening two results completely wrong, there was enough evidence to suggest that this would be an incredibly intriguing experiment.

                                        As I write this, I have currently completed the first three weeks of Premier League action, and thus far, FIFA has accurately predicted either the result or the score on 50% of matches. Whilst this may sound poor, it is broadly comparable to the percentage scores that myself, and everyone else who entered the prediction competition has. This suggests that FIFA is no more well informed than your average fan, but there is certainly a level of reliability to their results. I think I will be continuing this series with irregular blog posts throughout the season, updating you all on the progress made and the state of the FIFA table as it lies. I will also mention noteworthy games or derbies.  After three games, Chelsea lead the league from Manchester City and Stoke, with Tottenham currently sitting in the final Champions League spot. Sunderland currently sit 8th, a full 12 places above reality, with Manchester United slotted in beneath them. Though in FIFA, United lost to Chelsea and drew with Liverpool, the points tally is identical to that of the real team after three games. Towards the bottom, Liverpool have had a dreadful start, picking up just 1 point from their opening games. The relegation zone currently consists of the three promoted sides, with Cardiff the only side yet to get off the mark in the FIFA Premier League. In terms of individual prizes, it is Chelsea's Samuel Eto'o that has taken his chances early, with 5 goals scored in the three games. A host of players follow him on an average of a goal a game, but that will be one that I will be interested to follow.

                                         Whilst there may well be inaccuracies and flaws in this experiment, it is certainly one I am looking forward to undertaking and developing as the season goes on. As for how realistic the game is based on the early results, it is difficult to say. I would have to conclude that the early result suggest that the realism is perhaps not quite as good as the EA developers would have wanted, but 50% isn't bad. The early season has given me a few cracking matches so far, and I look forward to watching, and sharing, a few more in the near future.

Saturday, 21 September 2013

Diving: A Red Card Offence?

                             Last weekend's events, most notably David Moyes's comments after Manchester United's home victory against Crystal Palace, has brought the topic of diving back into the public eye. So many players are accused of it, and there there are discussions in pubs up and down the land assessing what the appropriate penalty for divers is. The current system of a yellow card for 'simulation' is widely considered to be too lenient. However, is the answer really, as Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish has suggested, a straight red card for diving offences? This post will look at the offence as it is currently defined, before examining the possible new punishments for the crime.

                               In order to fully understand the topic in question, it is worth consulting the FA definition of diving (or 'simulation'). Diving constitutes: 'an attempt by a player to gain an unfair advantage by diving to the ground and possibly feigning an injury, to appear as if a foul has been committed'. This seems relatively clear, and you would expect to see fairly regular punishments based on this definition. However, it proceeds to state that: 'a referee should be 100% certain that a player has simulated (feigned) an unfair challenge before cautioning the offender for unsporting behaviour. The referee must be convinced that there has been no physical contact whatsoever by the player challenging for the ball.' This is the cause of the controversy, as this clause means that referees tend to be overly lenient on simulation, not wanting to call a player a cheat, and this sometimes leads to miscarriages of justice when the referee gets it wrong. We will examine this in more detail later.

                                 Looking purely at the definition as it stands, we should perhaps compare it with other offences. By examining both those considered to be worthy of yellow and red cards, we will be able to see which category this offence more resembles. If we look at the options in both categories, I would say that 'unsporting conduct' would most easily be comparable from the yellow card section. The red card section does not appear to have an easily comparable alternative, with neither serious foul play, nor violent conduct accurately describing the act. If we run with the unsporting conduct offence, there are clear parallels between the pair. This indicates that perhaps the initial classification of diving as a yellow card carries weight.

                                 However, two alternatives have been suggested by prominent men in English football. We will begin by the suggestion made by Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish, that diving should constitute a straight-red card offence. Despite my above paragraph, there is evidence to suggest that this may be a possible alternative. Diving is a scourge in world football, and needs to be stamped out. If we look at another offence that has been 'stamped down upon', we find that racism has been much more heavily punished in recent years, in an attempt to eradicate it from the game. Now, I am not for one moment saying that diving is as bad as racism, however, I am merely making the point that if you want rid of an aspect from a game, you must penalise every instance heavily. Therefore, a case could certainly be made for the introduction of a heavy-handed penalty for diving, at least until the act is not so prominent. However, there are a couple of problems with this. Firstly, there will be the inevitable comparison between diving and the other red card offences, which illustrates the gap in severity. Simulation does not seem on the same page as intentionally breaking someone's leg, but, under this rule change, they would be considered equally severe. Secondly, there is a more pressing issue with the rules. As the current idea of diving is so open to interpretation, there are already many instances of referees making the wrong call. Under these new rules, a referee making the wrong call could irreparably change the outcome of the game, potentially ruining a team's season. Until we solidify what is considered a dive, I feel that a red card could not be awarded for the offence.

                                     The second alternative is one that appears far more reasonable. David Moyes, having stated that he wanted to stamp out diving from his own club, with Ashley Young coming in for further criticism, then suggested that video technology should be used to retrospectively ban players who have been proven to have dived. As much as that will be a dagger to the heart of Michel Platini, I think that this is an excellent idea. It lowers the fear of referee's getting a decision woefully wrong and costing a team a game in an instant, whilst ensuring that those guilty of diving are rightfully punished. I would introduce an initial ban of 4 games for a diving offence, meaning that there is that aspect of over the top punishment with a more accurate justice system, which I believe forms a nice middle ground. Once simulation has begun to die out of the game, a reduction in the ban could then be enacted. However, I suspect that none of these will be considered, players will be allowed to con referees and dive all over the place. This will continue to cause a horrible Catch 22 situation for referees, who will be blamed as much if they fail to penalise a dive, than if they wrongfully penalise one. And it will continue to be the topic of pub gossip for years to come.