2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Clash of The Cash (Title Race)

With the fixtures announced on Wednesday, that feeling of anticipation and excitement over the new season grows. The transfer window hasn't even opened yet, and people are already looking at the big derbies (with Aston Villa and West Brom particularly peeved that they didn't make the list) and making their predictions over the winners of the next Premier League title. Over the last couple of years, I've done blog posts looking at the fixtures, and using them to give an initial indication of who should be considered favourites. It's not particularly scientific, but it is interesting.

As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.

It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.

If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.

Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.

Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.

And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.

The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.

If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.

Blue Move: They Won't Be Standing Alone

I'm getting the distinct feeling that success for Manchester City is cyclical at present, rather than consistent. Despite the positive stat of two titles in three seasons, the fact remains that each of their title defences have been woeful. And arguably, the situation that the side finds themselves in is worse than that under Roberto Mancini just two years ago, which ultimately saw the deposition of the Italian. Whereas Mancini finished second (albeit a distant second) to Manchester United in 2012/2013, and reached an FA Cup final (losing to Wigan), Manuel Pellegrini has struggled, slipping into a battle for Champions League qualification, while exiting both cup competitions early.

As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?

I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.

Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free

Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m

Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m

Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m

Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m

Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m

Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m

Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m

Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m

Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m

Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m

John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m

Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free

Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m

Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.

So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.

The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.

With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?

Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.

Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.

There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.

However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.

Strikers

With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.

Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?

Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m

Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero

I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.

Half Time Report: European Round-Up

Having mainly focused on the Premier League in my blog, it can almost seem like I don't acknowledge the existence of any other leagues! However, while the English leagues continue on through the winter, many of the main European leagues take a nice break for Christmas. This makes it easy for me to do a succinct, but hopefully useful, roundup of some of the key leagues around the continent, looking at the title battle, the challenge for the European places and the threat of relegation.

Spain

Title

After last year's shocking finale which saw Atletico Madrid usurp the Clasico pair to claim the title, the first time that neither Barcelona or Real Madrid had claimed the title since Valencia's win a decade previously, it's been an interesting opening five months to this year.

Unsurprisingly, given the money spent by both Barcelona and Real Madrid, the pair have returned to the summit so far this season, with Madrid leading the Catalans by a single point with a game in hand. However, the reigning champions have refused to give up, with Atletico just a point behind their neighbours, albeit having played two games more. They may be on the back foot this year, but they seem intent on challenging once more.

Europe

It's all the usual suspects once more, with Sevilla currently in the Champions League spot and Valencia and Villarreal occupying the Europa League places. The only shock is the sudden demise of Athletic Bilbao. Having beaten Sevilla to the final Champions League place last year, Los Leones find themselves only 12th so far this year, and are unlikely to be in the shake-up come the end of the season.

Relegation

Realistically, anywhere from 13th down could be considered to be included in the relegation scrap, with Getafe separated from bottom side Cordoba by just six points. At the minute, Elche and Grenada join Cordoba in the relegation zone, with Levante and David Moyes's Real Sociedad, after an appalling start to the season, clinging on above them. I'm sensing numerous changes in the second half of the season as teams jostle for position, and a run of two or three straight victories may see them out of danger.

Germany

Title

Arguably the most one-sided league in Europe. Following a few years of competition involving Borussia Dortmund, with even a title for Wolfsburg, Bayern Munich have made the Bundesliga title their own in recent years. With the Bavarian side currently unbeaten this year, drawing just three games and conceding only four goals, they lead second-placed Wolfsburg by an unassailable 11 points. It's now more a case of when and not if.

Europe

The real race is for second place, with Wolfsburg separated from 9th place Eintracht Frankfurt by as many points as from Bayern the other way. In reality, the Wolves look strong favourites to cement a place in the Champions League. Other than them, the race is incredibly tight, with 3rd to 8th separated by just four points. With their pedigree, you'd always fancy Bayer Leverkusen to make the top four, but any one of Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach, Augsburg, Hoffenheim or Hannover could sneak into the final spot, with two of the remaining four being entered into the Europa League.

Relegation

Here is where the biggest shock in Europe lies. Despite having won a pair of titles less than five years ago, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in the relegation zone. With players like Mats Hummels and Marco Reus, there is no way they should remain in this predicament, however, their away form abysmal at present, there is no guarantee that they won't get sucked in. Other than that, any of the bottom half of the table could find themselves in trouble come the end of the year, with Werder Bremen, currently in the relegation playoff spot, separated from 10th placed Paderborn by just two points. This is going to be another tight battle.

France

Title

Despite all of the pre-season talk of a Paris-Saint Germain procession with the demise of Monaco, it hasn't gone entirely according to plan for Raymond Blanc's side. Trailing Marseille by three points, and Lyon by two, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani have yet to reach the highs that we saw last year. Though I do expect them to eventually triumph, Marseille have performed exceptionally well this season, with Pierre Andre Gignac and Florian Thavin singled out for particular praise. 

Europe

With Monaco slightly off the pace of the top teams, the four top places are likely to be the three currently challenging for the title and Saint Etienne, though the order is yet to be conclusively decided. The way the form table is going, I would predict a top four of PSG, Marseille, Lyon and Saint Etienne, but there is still much to be decided.

Relegation

As with a number of Europe's top leagues, this is set to be the largest battle this season. With Caen currently being cut away slightly at the bottom, trailing 17th place Metz by four points already, the difference between Evian in 18th and Nice in 11th is just three. The biggest surprise of the bottom half is European regulars Lille. Despite qualifying for this season's Europa League, Les Dogues have struggled in the league, currently languishing in 18th place. Though I suspect they have more than enough quality to drag themselves away from trouble, it is still a worrying time for their supporters, and put themselves under considerable pressure for the remainder of the season.

Italy

Title

Not quite as sewn up as Germany, but Juventus should be considered the strong favourites. Though they may only lead by three points from Roma, they have shown that they have the experience and ability to convert a lead to championships. If Juventus don't win it, I don't see anyone other than Roma claiming the Scudetto, though.

Europe

Behind the leading pair, a gap of nine points goes back to a trio of teams, and with only a further three points back to 8th place, this is set to be the biggest battle we see this season. Lazio currently occupy the final Champions League place, but with considerable European experience behind them in Napoli, Sampdoria, Genoa, Milan and Fiorentina, I expect to see many twists and turns in this battle going forward. 

Relegation

Surprisingly, this seems to be the only league where relegation is a little more cut and dried. With Parma and Cesena on just six and nine points respectively, they look dead and buried. The only real dispute is over the final spot, currently occupied by Cagliari. With a number of teams congregated on 17 points, five clear of the drop, I'm expecting to see a couple sucked into the struggle come the end of the year.

While it's been an interesting season in the Premier League, we're seeing all of Europe's leagues have prizes being hotly contested. Though in some, the largest honour is not really being contested, there are interesting dynamics being played out across Europe. With a long time to go in the season, there is still much to be decided, particularly involving the qualification for European competition next year.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Title Race)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Beginning with the title race, I (wrongly as it turned out) assumed that the winner would almost inevitably come from one of the three teams that have shared the title for the last 10 years: Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea. Though we now know we need to throw Liverpool into the mix, it is worth looking back over the fixtures, and seeing just how right (or often, wrong) I was.

Strangely, based on the fixtures I picked Manchester United to retain their title. I identified the three key times of the season, looking at the five fixtures at the beginning, middle and run-in. In reality, United have massively underperformed in both of the beginning and middle fixtures. Though they started well, with an emphatic 4-1 victory away at Swansea City, their form tailed off dramatically. A boring 0-0 draw with then-title rivals Chelsea was followed by two devastating defeats, away at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Manchester derby was particularly damaging, both for United's title chances, and David Moyes's credibility, as the Red Devils were comprehensively outplayed (the first of many times that would occur this season). Though I did not select United to start the season particularly well, I did not expect them to collapse quite so spectacularly.

Manchester City's start was considerably less tricky, and as a result saw them post a more healthy total after 5 games. Beginning the season with a 4-0 demolition of Newcastle, City were shocked by newly-promoted Cardiff City in a topsy-turvy game. Despite taking the lead, Cardiff came from behind to record one of the surprise results of the season, winning 3-2. This defeat evidently affected the Blues, as they laboured to a 2-0 victory in their next home game against Hull. A 0-0 draw at Stoke, historically a tough place to go, left City lagging behind slightly. However, the resounding victory over United sent out a real message into their title rivals and reinstated City's place towards the top of the table.

The final contenders I covered, Chelsea, began the season with a comfortable home win over Hull City, with fans rejoicing in the return of the 'Special One'. Though the fixtures changed slightly to accommodate the UEFA Super Cup, meaning that Chelsea picked up another home win over Aston Villa, that bore draw with Manchester United checked the rhythm of the Blues. This was further disrupted by the 1-0 defeat suffered at Goodison Park against a resurgent and difficult Everton. However, the 2-0 win over Fulham was the perfect tonic for their difficult period and meant that Chelsea could regain the momentum lost through their 100% home record.

I predicted that of those opening 5, it would be Manchester City that performed best, with Chelsea having to travel to Everton and Manchester United, and United having a horrible run of fixtures (causing David Moyes to have a meltdown about them - would it have happened with Fergie in charge?).  After the opening 5, I was still fairly confident that surprises like Cardiff's win against City was an example of teams bedding in and learning the ropes under a new manager, and I was confident that form would pick up as the season went on. Whilst I was not particularly surprised with the defeats United had away at City and Liverpool, the manner of them was shocking, and it looked like they would be the side most in need of adjustment.

End of First 5: Manchester United - 7pts (8th), Manchester City - 10pts (3rd), Chelsea - 10pts (4th)

To be fair to United and Moyes, whilst they looked defensively suspect, particularly at home, their away for has been impressive throughout the season, and eventually they began to improve in the mid-season period. Traditionally, the games over Christmas are where United really begin to gain momentum, so their rather fortunate five fixtures helped them considerably. Looking between the 14th December and New Year's Day, United began with a winnable tie at Aston Villa. With their excellent away form, win they did, and comfortably - 3-0. Three further victories, a 3-1 win at home to West Ham, a 3-2 come from behind win at Hull and an edgy 1-0 win over Norwich at Carrow Road saw United begin to string together results and gain momentum. However, once again their abysmal home form came back to bite them. Having already lost to Everton, Newcastle and West Brom at Old Trafford by this point, United's fortess of the past decades had been eradicated. This was proven once again with another dismal display at home to Tottenham, where goals from the rejuvenated Emmanuel Adebayor and the excellent Christian Eriksen gave Spurs a deserved 2-1 win and denting United's title prospects further.

Man City's mid-season fixture list was dauting, with visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as a tough tie at Swansea. I said in my earlier post that this may be the making or the breaking of City's season, and if so, it certainly made it. A 6-3 demolition of Arsenal in an incredible game at the Etihad saw City continue their unbelievable goalscoring form. Though they were winning, they were having to do it the hard way. A 4-2 away win at Fulham saw the Blues chuck a 2-0 lead away, before recovering to claim the three points. With similarly free-scoring Liverpool the next to travel to City, they could ill-afford more slip-ups. In a testing and absorbing contest, a Simon Mignolet error handed Alvaro Negredo the decisive goal in a 2-1 victory for the Blues. Two further wins at home to Crystal Palace and away at Swansea saw City claim maximum points from the mid-season and keep themselves very much in the hunt for the silverware.

Chelsea had a similarly difficult run of games, but they started with a comfortable (but not too easy) 2-1 win at home to a resurgent Crystal Palace. Mourinho's tactics ensured that they left their next game at the Emirates with their goal untroubled, but too often left them toothless upfront in a boring 0-0 draw. The lack of goals has been a theme throughout this season for Chelsea, and this was proven with the 1-0 win at Swansea, where Samuel Eto'o missed several golden opportunities to make the scoreline more emphatic. However, winning is winning, and a huge victory in the crunch game at home to Liverpool ensured that Chelsea remained well in the title race approaching the New Year. A dominant 3-0 win at the difficult St Mary's Stadium in Southampton saw Chelsea move within two points of the top spot, having taken 13 from the 15 points available in the period.

Here I was surprised. I predicted that it would be Manchester United that performed best of the three, as their fixtures seemed markedly easier than either those of Chelsea or City. However, it is probably unfair to castigate too much, as all three sides had excellent mid-season periods, with 12 out of 15 being the worst return. City's demolition of Arsenal sent out a warning shot to the rest of the Premier League that they were ready to fight their corner to the end, whilst Chelsea were quietly creeping up behind. By this point, United had already lost too much ground to put them in the title shake-up, and their efforts were now focused on claiming that all important 4th place. If they continued the way they managed in the mid-season, this was certainly possible.

End of Middle 5: Manchester United - 34pts (7th), Manchester City - 44pts (2nd), Chelsea - 43pts (3rd)

So what happened as the season reached its climax? Well, United continued to be consistently inconsistent, with their away form remaining the best in the division. However, their home form continues to be their undoing, and they seem incapable of competing in the big games. Heavy 3-0 defeats in successive games against Liverpool and Manchester City followed the 3-1 loss to Chelsea, ultimately ending United's push for a Champions League place. How badly this will affect the future of the club remains to be seen, but irrespective of what Moyes says, I truly believe that it will have a negative impact on the calibre of player United can attract. As a result, I would not be surprised to see a lot of new faces at United over the summer, but few will be huge headline names.

Manchester City, rocked by injuries to key personnel at times, have gone off the boil at a critical moment. Despite looking unstoppable at times in the mid-season, cruising past Spurs, Norwich and Arsenal with huge scores, the injury to Sergio Aguero has halted their goalscoring prowess. They, like United have failed in the big games, with a pair of defeats against Chelsea being followed by an incredibly damaging 3-2 defeat away at Liverpool (marked as a title decider). Wednesday's draw with Sunderland takes the title well and truly out of their hands, and they now need someone to do them a favour if they are to reclaim the trophy they won two years ago.

Chelsea have continued in the vein they have seen all season - winning games, but not scoring goals. As such, they are within touching distance of leaders Liverpool, but without a particularly good goal difference or any games with spectacular scorelines. Though they would now be favourite of the three I picked to win the title from here, it is interesting consider the three in the race and how I believe it will pan out as we head into the home straight.

5 To Go: Liverpool (1st), Chelsea (2nd), Manchester City (3rd)

The real surprise of the season was the rise of Liverpool. Their potent attacking force has made the Anfield side difficult to stop this campaign, as proven by their monumental home victories against all of their title rivals thus far. However, two damaging results ensured that the title would be making its way back to Manchester for the fourth successive year. Chelsea's brilliant, if a little dull, victory at Anfield was followed by an incredible collapse at Crystal Palace, handing momentum, and ultimately the trophy, back to City.

City, after their defeat at Liverpool, and the 2-2 draw with Sunderland, seemed rank outsiders for the title. However, 6 successive wins, including tough away ties at The Eagles and Goodison Park, a traditional bogey ground, meant that a final day coast at home to West Ham handed them the crown.

Jose Mourinho's Chelsea, having beaten the Reds, shot themselves in the foot, dropping points at home to Sunderland and Norwich, wrecking what promised to be a golden return for the Special One.

At the end of one of the closest championship battles for years, we could have seen the trophy back in the North West - but not in the place you would expect. However, one of the most exciting races in recent memory promises to be even more so next year, with free-spending Chelsea and Manchester City likely to be joined by Manchester United and Arsenal, if they can avoid injuries. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Liverpool can marry European football, particularly Champions League, with a decent domestic campaign. We have seen sides struggle to compete for multiple honours, and it will be a real test of Brendan Rodgers' small squad next year.

Tactics Talk: Chelsea v Sunderland

Lineups:

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Schwarzer, Azpilicueta, Cahill, Terry, Ivanovic, Ramires, Matic, Salah, Willian, Oscar, Eto'o

Sunderland (4-1-4-1): Mannone, Alonso, Brown, O'Shea, Vergini, Cattermole, Borini, Colback, Larsson, Johnson, Wickham

This game had enormous implications for both the top and bottom, and as a result, both sides put out strong sides. Despite Chelsea in action in mid-week against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League sem-finals, Jose Mourinho went with as positive a team as was available to him. With Eden Hazard still unavailable due to injury, Chelsea would be relying primarily on Oscar for creativity, with Salah and Willian applying pace out wide and on the break. The only other big omission was the lack of Petr Cech due to an unexplained illness. Thankfully for Chelsea, he is not expected to be out for the big European tie.

Sunderland, on the other hand, knew what their task was, having performed it so admirably at the Etihad Stadium just a few days ago. Holding Manchester City to a 2-2 draw in an absorbing encounter, similar tactics would need to be employed for Sunderland to get anything. And they needed something. With just a handful of games remaining, Sunderland's only chance to avoid the drop is in taking points from games they have no right to earn them in, and Wednesday's draw illustrated this. As a result, Gus Poyet began with the same team that started that tie, hoping for a similar response.

As you may have seen on Twitter, I am adding a new portion into these posts. As I tried, and failed to look at how FIFA would predict the Premier League, I will be using Twitter to provide commentary, and where possible, video footage, of FIFA simulations of games my Tactic Talk posts cover. For those of you that did not see the live feed before the match, Chelsea began the game strongly, hitting the post from their first attack. They dominated possession for the entirety of the first half, but found it hard to break down a stubborn Sunderland back line, with Mohamed Salah among those to go close. Just as it seemed as though Sunderland would make it to the break unscathed, Chelsea struck. On 37 minutes, a snapshot from Willian on the edge of the area was only parried by Mannone into the path of Nemanja Matic, who slid the rebound into the back of the net. More Chelsea pressure before the half time whistle led to nothing, and Sunderland went off having had a single shot and just 39% of possession.

The second half started in similar fashion, with Chelsea dominating the possession. Despite this, some excellent Sunderland defending prevented the Blues adding to their lead. With Chelsea's best chance coming from a set piece, with John Terry nodding wide from 6 yards, it seemed only a matter of time before they would strike. However, despite their dominance, Chelsea were hit with a sucker punch on 78 minutes. Having had very little in the way of presentable opportunities, a flowing move saw Borini slide a ball back from the edge of the penalty area for Marcos Alonso to rifle home the equaliser. Despite mounting Chelsea pressure in the final ten, Sunderland refused to cave, gaining them what would be a valuable point should it happen in reality.

In all honesty, I expected the FIFA simulation to be way off reality, with Chelsea seemingly able to walk over teams at Stamford Bridge. FIFA doesn't take into account the momentum that Chelsea have at home versus other teams, nor does it think about Mourinho's incredible 76-game unbeaten run at the Bridge. However, the opening ten minutes went down similarly to the simulation, with Chelsea having almost 70% possession as they pushed Sunderland back to the edge of their own area in the early going. Like the simulation, they struggled to break down the Black Cats' resilient defence. That was until they whipped a corner into the Sunderland box. The Black Cats have conceded 16 of their 56 goals from set pieces, and amidst the chaotic marking, Samuel Eto'o reacted quickly to volley the opener beyond Mannone. With the dominance of the Blues, I was confident that they would go on and win the game comfortably from here.

However, the reaction from Sunderland was almost instant, and like Chelsea, they took advantage of a set piece. Despite the ball being initially cleared, a shot from Marcos Alonso was only parried into the path of Connor Wickham. With the youngster in the form of his life, having scored two against Manchester City in midweek, he had no trouble lifting the ball gently over Mark Schwarzer and into the back of Chelsea's net to stun the home faithful. With the Wearsiders now with momentum, the game turned into an open and entertaining affair. This seemingly would suit Chelsea, but both sides were creating chances, with all wingers wanting to get forward at every opportunities. However, though Chelsea used Willian and Salah in equal measure to put Sunderland to the sword, Adam Johnson on Sunderland's right wing was cutting an anonymous figure, as the Black Cats favoured the creativity of Fabio Borini on the left.

First half hour: For all of Chelsea's possession, they were wasting chances and being kept at arms length by Sunderland. The strugglers had held onto everything the title chasers had to offer, and deservedly levelled.

As time ticked towards half time, Chelsea still could not find a way through, with their most dangerous moments coming off the back of set pieces. Try as they may, Sunderland just could not cope with marking from corners and free kicks, leading to an Eto'o header hitting Mannone and then the bar before dropping into the grateful keeper's gloves. The Cameroon striker was looking an increasingly frustrated figure, with Oscar in particular wasting a bagful of good positions to put the striker in. With Sunderland occasionally threatening, with Adam Johnson spurning the best chance, the game meandered to half time with the scores level, and neither really looking like changing this.

The one moment that could have changed the complexion came five minutes before the break, and epitomised the frustration coursing through the veins of the Chelsea players. Midfielder Ramires, who had been denied by a last ditch Sebastien Larsson header moments before, inexplicably thrust his forearm into the face of the Swedish midfielder. Fortunately for the Brazilian, he avoided a red card, however I would not be surprised to find that he is retrospectively banned for that incident.

The second half began as the first ended, with Chelsea dominating possession but lacking the cutting edge to find the second goal. Sunderland remained dangerous on the counter, with Borini continuing to pull the strings and Wickham putting in a strong centre forward's performance, but their attacks were becoming fewer and their midfield was beginning to slip back towards the defence. But their defence remained strong, with little in the way of chances conceded.

Second half hour: Still nothing to choose between the two sides, and it may take a bit of Jose Mourinho mastery or a horrendous mistake to choose between them. Neither could afford to lose, but a draw would not help either.

By the hour mark, Mourinho had seen enough, bringing in-form Demba Ba on for the ineffective and wasteful Oscar and Andre Schurrle on for Mohamed Salah in a like-for-like swap. Sunderland did made like-for-like swaps of their own, with Jozy Altidore and Emmanuele Giaccherini brought on for Wickham and the anonymous Johnson. With these changes, Chelsea upped the tempo. As a result, they began carving out chances as Sunderland's defence strained to cope. Demba Ba was the most wasteful, slipping at the critical moment after a cut-back. How critical that miss would prove to be.

With just ten minutes to go, a mistake from Cesar Azpilicueta proved critical. With Jozy Altidore bearing down on goal, the Spaniard slid in to try and get the ball out for a corner. Unfortunately for Chelsea, his clumsy challenge, whether contact or not, led the referee's assistant to put his flag across his chest and signalled a penalty. It was then left to Fabio Borini, the on loan Liverpool striker, to slide the ball past Schwarzer to give Sunderland the most unlikely of leads, especially given what happened in Manchester just a few days earlier.

And after the goal, the bombardment began. Cross after cross flew into the Sunderland box, with Chelsea desperately seeking an equaliser. But nothing would work, and the Black Cats would hold on for a historic victory, ending the 76-game winning streak of Mourinho in the process. An incredible feat, and one that may have great ramifications at both ends of the Premier League. Sunderland will go into their next game at home to Cardiff having taken four points from two of the best teams in the country on their own patch, while Chelsea slip further away from Liverpool at the top. I think this result kills their title ambitions, as even a win against the Reds will not suffice any more. In one of the most topsy-turvy seasons in history, this was another incredible twist, and one that will live long in the memory of Sunderland fans. Is the great escape on?

The Veil Is Slipping: Are United Still In The Title Race?

                          The worst start to a Premier League season. This is the (unwanted) record that the 2013/14 Manchester United squad, and David Moyes, have claimed. I hate the term 'transition period', as it is all too often used as an excuse by managers and fans alike to explain poor form. A recent example would be, in my opinion, Liverpool. In the last 5 years, the Reds' form has dipped significantly, with each of Roy Hodgson, Kenny Dalglish and Brendan Rodgers claiming that Liverpool were in 'transition'. However, in United's case, I believe it is justified. After a managerial dynasty, the like of which the Premier League has never seen before, it was always likely to take Manchester United some time to regroup and adjust. However, there remain those who are surprised by their recent dip in form, with many suggesting that United may be out of the title race already. This post will examine this claim, whilst also looking at alternative explanations for the champions' sudden decline.

                            Man Utd have begun this 2013/2014 Premier League season with three defeats, two draws, and just three victories, leaving them on a grand total of 11 points after 8 games. This represents the club's worst start to a Premier League season ever, and their worst start to a campaign in 24 years. Bearing in mind all three of the sides considered to be in the hunt for the Premier League crown (Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea) have changed their managers, it was always going to be an interesting start to the season. Most United fans believed that they could therefore compare their performances and results to those of their rivals, as they had all gone through a period of instability. When they see their side 8th, and 8 points off the lead of the Premier League, 5 and 6 points behind City and Chelsea respectively, we have seen many become disenchanted. However, I consider the disenchanted to be short-termist supporters (and generally fair-weather fans), and I say that for two reasons. The first is that Manchester United, as I discussed in my Premier League fixtures post, recieved the toughest start to the campaign of the three title contenders. With Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City all in their opening five fixtures, two of which were away, it was always going to be tough for United to gain too much momentum. The second is Sir Alex Ferguson.

                               One misjudgement that Manchester United fans make when they compare Manchester City's and, in particular, Chelsea's situation to their own. In Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United had a manager that was with them for quarter of a century, providing them with success unrivalled by any other English club. It is only natural that he will have shaped the club in a particular way, making it incredibly difficult for the next man coming in. If losing Ferguson was not enough, the club would have been further destabilised by the loss of chief executive David Gill. Another incredibly influential member of the footballing world. His replacement, Ed Woodward, was widely considered to have had a poor transfer window, managing to bring in only Marouane Fellaini, despite several key failures. Comparing this to City and Chelsea, we see no such backroom instability. Roberto Mancini at City, whilst he was successful, did not have the same effect on the backroom as Ferguson, meaning that Manuel Pellegrini's transition would be much smoother. For Chelsea, the transition would be even more easy, as Jose Mourinho has managed Chelsea before, and will therefore be accustomed to the Premier League, and the club. Comparisons made between the three clubs are, in my mind, unfair, as United have had to deal with far more internal turmoil than either of their rivals.

                                Something else that many short-termist Manchester United 'fans' often forget (or perhaps do not even know) is that their idol, Sir Alex Ferguson, was within minutes of a sacking way back before he won his first title. Had he been disposed of, United would almost certainly not be the force we know them as today. In a move regarded as one of the best in history, Manchester United bosses took a risk on the Scottish manager, despite a dismal early United career. It would pay off handsomely, with 13 Premier League titles following. It is that same patience that new man David Moyes will be asking for from United bosses and fans alike. I'm not so sure he will get it...

                                 David Moyes has been heavily criticised by many in recent weeks. The team's abject performance in the Manchester derby was followed by the shock loss at home to West Brom. In no league game since the opening day has the side looked settled and confident, and fans are placing the majority of the blame on the shoulders of the manager. He also shouldered blame for the club's lack of activity in the transfer market. Missing out on key targets like Thiago Alcantara, Gareth Bale and Ander Herrera meant that they had to settle for an ex-Moyes charge, Marouane Fellaini. However, even that was a flawed move. United had allowed a £24 Million minimum fee release clause to expire, meaning that the Belgian cost the Red Devils an extra £4 Million. A move that prompted wide calls of financial incompetance and lack of vision, also seemingly illustrating Moyes's inability to draw in the big players. With the American owners, the Glazers, there is no guarantee that the Abramovic-style short-termism won't win out, meaning that Moyes finds himself in line at the job centre. However, is it really fair that he shoulders the entirety of the blame?

                                  I would certainly argue no. David Moyes has not become a bad manager overnight. He performed miracles year after year at Everton, where he was given the time to build the squad the way he wanted. Admittedly, the expectations at Manchester United are quite difficult to those of Everton, but the point remains the same. It is also important to point out that the current crop of Manchester United players would hardly make their best Premier League XI. There are a few gems (Robin van Persie, Wayne Rooney and Nemanja Vidic spring to mind), but there is little in terms of strength in depth at United. If we compare their players to those at City or Chelsea, they are certainly at a significant disadvantage. United fans may attempt to contradict me here, using last season's emphatic victory in the league as evidence of their squad's quality. My counter-argument would be this: United had their backroom working effectively, with a manager that knew the squad and the team inside-out, meaning he could get the best out of them. City, on the other hand, were divided, with several player revolts against Mancini. I think most sides could have beaten City last season. This year, both the lack of quality in the squad, and Moyes's lack of squad knowledge hinders the side on the field, and the turmoil behind the scenes means that players are not brought in, inevitably transferring onto the pitch.

                              People also point, quite rightly, to the change of mindset of teams when they play United, especially when they travel to Old Trafford. However, once again, I believe they misunderstand when they apply blame to Moyes for this. Such was the strength of Ferguson-led Manchester United teams, due to the manager's depth of squad knowledge, teams would come to Old Trafford expecting to lose, and treating a draw as though they had won. His retirement lifts that feeling, and teams can now exploit United's many weaknesses, as illustrated by the results thus far. I believe that this would have been the same had it been Moyes, Klopp or Guardiola in the United dugout. The new United manager was always going to struggle initially, perhaps for the rest of this season, as he can only work with what he has been given. What Moyes has been given is arguably the league's best strike force, but little in the midfield, and a defence that remains shaky at times. Ferguson's tactical knowledge instilled a sense of invincibility, which a manager can only grant a side after a considerable stint at the club. Expecting Moyes to come in and instantly perform to a similar standard is deluded. For opposing teams, I believe it is a case of 'making hay whilst the sun shines', as a suspect United will not stay this vulnerable for long.

                                So are United out of the title race? No. Simple as that. Arsene Wenger was quite right in his comments today. There is still plenty of time for the Red Devils to find their best form. In fact, it has been a trademark of both Manchester United and David Moyes teams in the past to come back strongly after Christmas. If they continue their current form until then, that resurgency may come too late. However, to write someone's title ambitions off after 8 games is ludicrous, and is indicative of the short-term nature of contemporary football.

                                Will Moyes be sacked? If it was up to me, not a chance. From a City point of view, I have made several jokes to United friends that David Moyes is the best thing to happen to City, so long may this early season form continue. However, I suspect that if United stick with the Scot, I will be smiling on the other side of my face soon enough. You cannot judge a new manager on 8 games (despite what many fans and chairmen think). If United get rid of Moyes, they will be in danger of falling into the trap that City (over the years) and Chelsea have fallen into. It is proven: a revolving door policy rarely brings sustained success. Find the right man, and stick with him. If fans believed Ferguson was the right man, they should be right behind Moyes. After all, the man who won them 13 Premier League titles did choose him for the job.

Japanese Grand Prix: Not A Racer? Not A Problem

                         That finger. That victorious, but unbelievably annoying, digit. The sight of Sebastian Vettel's right index finger, oddly turned the wrong way around, will be imprinted onto the memory of F1 for some time to come. It has certainly been the only thing F1 fans will have seen for the entirety of the second half of this season. Red Bull's dominance has led to F1 being accused of being repetitive and borderline boring, with Vettel generally qualifying on pole and leading a practically lights to flag victory. Though it didn't happen this way in Japan, the end result was the same. The irriting twisted index finger raised in triumph come the end of the race. However, there have also been recent questions asked of Vettel's ability as a racer. Seeing as the vast majority of his victories have been won from the front, a question mark can still be raised above his head over his ability to relentlessly chase down and overtake those infront of him. When you think back over recent years, races like Japan in 2005, when Kimi Raikkonen, then at McLaren, came from 17th on the grid to overtake Giancarlo Fisichella on a pulsating final lap to win the race, really illustrate how much real racing ability you have. Similarly Jenson Button's 2011 Canadian Grand Prix win gives us the impression of a racer, coming from last place to win the race on the final lap. Vettel has not yet had that moment, and this was another race where he had the opportunity, but it went begging.

                          The race was overshadowed by the tragic news on Friday that Maria de Villota, a former test driver for Marussia, had been found dead in her Spanish hotel room. After a horrific crash during a test in July 2012, which saw her lose her right eye, and suffer massive head injuries, Maria showed incredible bravery to fight back. Whilst the crash effectively ended her career as a race driver, she would not be kept away from the paddock, becoming an inspiration to millions worldwide. Her smile and fighting spirit was matched only by her generosity and desire to do good, and she will be remembered by everyone involved in Formula 1, and the motorsport world in general. Such were the extent of her injuries from her crash, it was concluded that she had died as a result of her injuries, and the coroner released a report of 'death by natural causes' the following day. In memory of the 33 year old, many of the teams adopted her 'star' crash helmet design. Marussia had it emblazoned on several parts of the car, whilst Jenson Button had his own tribute, placing a star on his helmet to show his respects. She was a bright and bubbly personality for the sport, and Formula 1 will miss her dearly.

                            The Suzuka circuit in Japan has been described by many as a drivers' favourite. With its twisting, technically challenging corners, it is a race-track that forces every ounce of concentration and driving ability from the racers. Whilst it is unlike Monaco, in that one mistake does not necessarily earn you a trip to the barriers, one mistake can certainly cost you an exceptional amount of time. Every corner needs to be entered and exited smoothly, otherwise you have a great disadvantage to the cars behind and in front. The iconic corners include Dunlop, Spoon Corner and, of course, the 180 mph 130R corner. It is a circuit where we have seen some of the best, and most dramatic races in the history of the sport. This year's qualifying certainly added to this drama. In qualifying one, we had two separate fires! After fumes caught light in the Sauber garage, Esteban Gutierrez had to make a swift exit from his vehicle as a small fire started behind his head. Thanks to extreme safety regulations, and layers of fire retardant clothing, fire is, thankfully, not the threat it once was in Formula 1. However, it is always disconcerting to see flames in a garage, and luckily, it was an easily containable situation. If one fire during qualifying is unusual, two is extraordinary. However, just ten minutes later, John-Eric Vergne's Toro Rosso was seen lapping with both of the rear brakes on fire, forcing him to retire from qualifying and pull up next to a marshal. This brought out the red flag, causing chaos as the lights went green. With several cars still under pressure from those behind, there was a free-for-all at the end of Q1, with both Massa and Raikkonen making daring passes in an attempt to find space. The big loser at the end of all this was Adrian Sutil. The Force India driver failed to find enough space, meaning that he had to start from the back (having opted to change his engine).

                                    Q2 saw no real surprises, with all of the protagonists comfortably through to the shootout. The main winner of Q2 was Nico Hulkenberg. The German is having a tremendous second half of the season with Sauber, and he has been linked with several teams further up the grid. Once again, he managed to drag a mid-grid car into the top 10. Q3 began quite slowly, with only 4 cars opting to take the opportunity to go out early. In the battle between the Red Bulls for pole, it looked like luck was finally on Webber's side. Vettel had been radioed to explain that his KERS system had failed, costing the German up to three tenths a lap. This would prove crucial. For the first time this season, the Aussie managed to beat his team mate. Such has been the dominance of Red Bull, that generally means pole. Behind that pair, Lewis Hamilton produced an excellent lap to edge ahead of Romain Grosjean, who has been ending the season strongly. Hulkenberg, however, was a revelation. In a far inferior car, he managed to outqualify both Ferraris and the Lotus of Raikkonen: a good effort. But the day belonged to Webber, who may have just had his final pole position.

                                     The Australian will have woken on Sunday morning hoping for the victory to go with his pole, however to do that, he would need to rectify a serious ongoing problem. Webber starts have been extremely suspect, and this has often cost him valuable places and points. Nowhere is this more important than on pole. However, Webber would have a nightmare start, but, even more unusually, as did his teammate. Off the line, the Red Bulls were swamped by Lewis Hamilton and Romain Grosjean, with the latter soaring into the lead. The Mercedes was less fortunate. In the process of overtaking Vettel, Hamilton clipped his front wing, causing a right rear puncture. This caused him to drift wildly, and dropped him right to the back of the field. It would eventually end his race, as the damage to the floor of the car from the delaminating tyre was too much to continue with. Further back, Jules Bianchi and Guido van der Garde tripped over one another on the run down to the first corner, spearing the pair into the gravel. The yellow flags proved a great aid to Romain Grosjean, as it disabled the DRS, preventing the Red Bulls gaining too much time. By the time the yellow flags were rescinded, the Frenchman had broken the 1 second window, and was looking good for the win.

                                      Suzuka is not a track known for its wealth of overtaking opportunities, and as such, the race would all come down to the most effective strategies. The front three all made their first stops within three laps of one another, retaining their places. This meant that round one of the tactical battle had gone to the Lotus team. Further back, overtaking was few and far between, with the race characterised by a large amount of car trains, most notably, the train forming behind Daniel Ricciardo's Toro Rosso in 4th place. With the Aussie running a long first stint, many of the earlier stoppers became trapped behind Ricciardo. This included the other Mercedes of Nico Rosberg. Mercedes day had gone from bad to worse in the laps after Lewis Hamilton's retirement. At the German's first stop, he was released into the path of Sergio Perez, earning him a drive-through penalty and dropping him back into 12th place. With both Ferraris and Lotuses infront of Rosberg, Mercedes were looking like dropping a long way out of the race for 2nd place in the Constructors Championship.

                                       Back up front, the change of tyres had seemed to have a profound effect on the Red Bulls, moving them closer to Grosjean. Webber was looking particularly racy as he came towards the end of his stint, getting within the one second window. Like the first time, it was Webber to pit first and attempt the undercut, but this time, Grosjean and Vettel stayed out longer. The Lotus's pace had dropped away, allowing Vettel to reel him in quickly. However, try as he might, the German could not get past the Lotus. This time, when Grosjean pitted on lap 30, he had no defence to Webber behind, rejoining a good 5 seconds behind. Vettel then turned his attention to jumping the pair, however, he would have to do so on old tyres. It also became very clear that Webber would need to stop again, as the Aussie was setting fastest lap times and burning through his tyres. When Vettel did evetually stop, for the final time, he rejoined behind Grosjean. However, this time, on fresher tyres, he did not find it difficult to overtake the Frenchman. This was his only pass of the race, and he would need just the one.

                                        With Vettel flying away at the front, Mark Webber made his final stop, changing to the softer tyre on lap 47. If he could pass Grosjean quickly, he could make an attempt at hunting Vettel down. Grosjean, however, seemed to have learnt his lessons from the time spent being hounded by Vettel. Lap anfter lap passed, with the Australian becoming increasingly frustrated, and the race win slipped out of his hands. Though he eventually made an excellent pass on Grosjean on lap 52, there was little he could do to reel in his team mate. Vettel took the chequered flag to win his 9th race of the season, by 7 seconds from his teammate. Though Fernando Alonso finished 4th, meaning that the title was not mathmatically over, he conceded defeat to his rival. The title will be decided in India if Alonso fails to outscore Vettel by 16 points. Seeing as the German has had only 1 retirement in a year, it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances to deny him from here.

                                          But the question remains: is Vettel a true racer? Here, he had the opportunity to show everyone how tenacious and capable he is, however he at times looked out of ideas against Romain Grosjean. Though he did eventually overtake the Frenchman, it was the perfect execution of a better strategy that won the German this race. He certainly prefers to be out in front, as he is the expert of creating gaps and running away from the rest of the field. Whether he will ever win a race from the back of the field, putting the race in the annuls alongside those races like Japan 8 years ago, I am unsure. His car seems too good to need him to do this at the minute, so we may be waiting for some time to find this out.

2013 Singapore Grand Prix: Has The Night Race Put The Title To Bed?

                          This weekend's Singapore Grand Prix from Marina Bay has perhaps pull the final nail in the coffin of this season's Driver Championship. With Sebastian Vettel leaving the Asian city-state 60 points ahead with only 150 remaining, it seems now a case of when and not if the German will take his fourth consecutive drivers' title. It is an incredible feat, matched only by fellow German Michael Schumacher, and he will be hoping to surpass his compatriot's record in the coming years. With the amount of years left in the Red Bull driver's career, I would not be at all surprised if Vettel did manage to take all of Schumacher's records away from him one-by-one, just less than a decade after people said they would never be beaten. It is an indication of the incredible domination Vettel has had on the sport, and no race has illustrated this more than the Singapore Grand Prix this weekend.

                           The big news in the weeks in between the Italian Grand Prix and the trip to Marina Bay is that Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen, who had already spurned an approach from Red Bull, decided instead to move to his former employers Ferrari for the start of the 2014 season. My initial reaction to the Finn's decision was that he had decided to return to the team he won his one and only title with, and that the Italian side remained the most likely team to repeat that success with. Therefore, the decision seemed to be odd from the perspective that the Finn turned down Red Bull, but sensible on the basis that he is familiar with many of the Ferrari team, and I feel that he will settle in quicker with. However, reports over the following days suggested that Raikkonen's decision was motivated by both success and finances. The former McLaren man, in interviews with the international media, implied that he had decided to make the move to the Scuderia as Lotus had failed to pay his wages for a month. This simply puts the icing on the cake for the Finn, who has enjoyed a reasonable amount of success with the British team, but he needs to make that step up the grid if he wants to realistically challenge for any titles in the future.

                             Raikkonen, who was also suffering the effects of an injection he had into his back, was clearly still distracted by his new contract, as his qualifying did not go to plan. On any street circuit it is important to qualify well, as those further down the grid are more succeptible to first lap incidents, and getting stuck behind slower cars in front. In Q1, the Red Bulls, who had also dominated the practice sessions, were the only team able to cruise through into Q2 using only the hard tyres. Even the Mercedes, who have been notoriously good on a single lap, were unable to just stay on the hard tyres. Ferrari had an unwanted scare, as Felipe Massa found himself in the bottom 6 as the flag dropped. Fortunately for the Italians, the Brazilian managed to get himself into the relative safety of mid-table, but he did little to put himself in the shop window. The big casualty from Q1 was Paul di Resta. The Brit has struggled in recent races, and is no longer a stranger to exiting in the first qualifying session, so perhaps it should not be such a shock. Q2 saw Raikkonen depart as the big name dropout, as his back caused him too much pain to get his best lap. The man to take his place was Esteban Gutierrez. The Sauber driver managed to break into the top 10 for the first time, outqualifying his more experienced teammate in the progress. Vettel's dominance in the first two qualifying sessions seemed to be continued in the final shootout, as he blasted into the 1:42's, a full seven tenths faster than his nearest rivals. So convinced was the German that he had done enough, he decided not to return to the track, instead becoming a spectator. However, he would have been a nervous onlooker as Nico Rosberg set the fastest first sector on his final lap. As the Mercedes passed the line, Vettel managed a sigh of relief, as Rosberg could only get within a tenth of his initial time.

                                That one tenth would prove pivotal in the run to the first corner. Unusually, the Red Bull was beaten off the line by Rosberg, who powered off the line. Having passed Vettel before the first corner, the Mercedes ran wide into turn 2, allowing Vettel to sneak back up the inside to get the lead back. Behind, the big winner was, once again, Fernando Alonso, who went from 7th to 3rd in the space of two corners. Steering clear of any danger, the Spaniard went all the way around the outside of two rows to claim the final podium spot. In fact, the entire field managed to avoid contact on the opening lap, showing incredible driving accuracy. Once he had maintained his lead, Sebastian Vettel quickly made the break, scampering away from Rosberg. By the time the Mercedes made his first pit stop, Vettel was over 7.5 seconds clear. As the race ran on, it became more and more obvious that Vettel was strolling to a comfortable victory, so attention turned to the chasing pack behind. After the first stops, Hamilton and Grosjean began reeling in Mark Webber quite quickly, with the Australian on older tyres. Just as it looked that the result was inevitable, Daniel Ricciardo made an uncharacteristic error, locking up both front tyres and sliding into the barriers. This brought out the safety car, eradicating Vettel's lead and throwing the result back into the air.

                                   This lasted next to no time however, as no sooner had the safety car pitted then Vettel made the break once again. With one Red Bull scampering away, the attention turned to the other. Aussie Mark Webber had been battling with Hamilton and Grosjean since the early laps, and this seemed set to be an ongoing rivalry. However, his cause was aided by the sight of Grosjean's engine giving in on lap 38. When the pair then made their final stops, they fell back behind the majority of the chasing pack, meaning a full-throttle race to the finish. It seemed to be a tactical decision that worked, as the Aussie managed to perform the undercut on Nico Rosberg, to take an effective 3rd place. However, this was swiftly wiped away by Raikkonen's ability to perform the same undercut. With both Alonso, who was trying to one stop, and Vettel way up the road, the final podium spot was the only thing up for grabs at this point. With both McLarens one stopping, there were mobile chicanes that needed passing for those behind. However, this often became easier said than done, as Hamilton and Rosberg almost collected one another on several occasions when trying to pass Perez.

                                      Despite chasing Raikkonen down to try and claim the final podium spot, Webber began to struggle massively into the final couple of laps, losing four seconds a lap to the Mercedeses behind. He was eventually passed by both, before being forced to retire with a lack of fuel, and a sick engine, eventually setting fire to itself on the final lap. It is just the latest in a long list of misfortune for the Aussie, who will be glad to leave the sport at this rate! In contrast, his teammate Vettel came home to win the race with ease, leading by over 30 seconds from Fernando Alonso. However, for both, the day ended badly. For Webber, having accepted a lift from Fernando Alonso, he was penalised with a 10 place penalty at the next race in Korea, for three reprimands in a season. For Vettel, despite his dominant victory, almost guaranteeing the title, he was roundly booed on the podium. Whilst this was not the first time (it happened at Monza), the first time could easily be explained as being deep Ferrari territory. Singapore is not. To boo any racer is unacceptable, especially when they have performed so admirably this season. Whilst it could be argued that F1 is getting boring, as the German is sweeping everything and everyone aside, this is not justification for booing someone. I do not recall Schumacher being booed wherever he went, or Senna. I think that we have to credit Red Bull for making a terrific car, and Vettel for driving it so well.

                                     As for the title: it looks over. 60 points is a lot to recoup out of 150. We would need to see a few Vettel non-finishes for this to be anything other than a Red Bull and Vettel success. I simply hope that we do see a few more interesting and close races over the next few weeks, otherwise F1 will begin to become a touch tedious and repetitive. Since the change to the tyres Red Bull have seemed best prepared to deal with the rule changes and the tyres, giving them an inherent advantage. Next season, hopefully we will see a slightly different story, getting us back to the start of the season, where any one of 6 or 7 cars could win races.

2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Title Race)

         After a mere 4 and a half weeks after the culmination of the 2012/2013 Barclays Premier League season, our thoughts are once again thrust towards English football's most prestigious prize. With the unveiling of the fixtures for the coming season, analysts can begin to consider who could be on the move, both up and down. The main contenders for the title have seemingly already been pre-determined (Man City, Man United and possibly Chelsea), and at least one of the promoted sides have been favoured for the drop. The other two are normally decided by the difficulty of certain sides' fixtures at key times in the season. There will be four posts in the series about the recently published fixtures. This first post will outline the critical fixtures, and attempt to make initial conclusions on the title contenders based on the fixtures of the likely protagonists. The second and third posts will be similar in structure, but regarding the battle for the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. (I apologise if you happen to be a mid-table supporter, and thus feel neglected, but you may possibly count yourself lucky not to be involved in the relegation battle). The final post will be an invitation to take part in my yearly Premier League predictions. Having run the competition amongst family and friends for the last two years, I have decided to open it to whomever wished to participate. As a result, I will be attaching a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which includes the full fixture list, along with space to put your predictions down the side. I will explain the details in the later post.

           For now, I will continue with my initial analysis of the upcoming Premier League season. Beginning with the title race, having outlined the three widely-acknowledged contenders, it is worth considering their fixtures. By assessing the first 5 fixtures, the fixtures at the busy Christmas period, and the run-in, including looking at the critical fixtures, we can make initial hypotheses about who should be considered favourites for the title. Champions Manchester United, having lost their talismanic manager at the end of last season, should certainly not be written off retaining their title, despite this loss. However, the Red Devils, and David Moyes, have a daunting start to 2013/2014 season. With a tricky away tie at Swansea to kick things off, they then host title rivals Chelsea. This will give the new man a real test of his title-winning credentials, and will perhaps show the extent of the gap left by Sir Alex Ferguson. The fixtures do not get any easier for the champions, with a North West derby at Anfield against historical rivals Liverpool. A quick break at home to Crystal Palace follows this, before the most anticipated game in English league football of recent years, the Manchester Derby, away at Manchester City. A baptism of fire for the former Everton manager, and one I am sure he will need to make a solid start on. A good set of results here will certainly give United a great foundation to build on, but defeats may cost them precious momentum.

           City, runners-up in 2013, will be glad to start with a home game, giving them the opportunity to rectify the aberration at the end of last campaign, losing their final home game 2-3 to Norwich City. A visit from last season's under-achievers Newcastle, will certainly not be an easy one however, especially if their slow home start against Southampton last season is anything to go by. Manuel Pellegrini, similarly to David Moyes, will be looking to make a quick start to the campaign after his recent appointment at oil rich City, and with a number of big money signings, will be attempting to solidify his position. Two consecutive games against promoted sides may give the Citizens a chance to accrue some early points, especially in the home game against Hull, before a tricky trip to Stoke, a ground where City have failed to win on any of their previous 4 league fixtures. The Manchester Derby at the Etihad finishes City's opening 5, with the Citizens wanting to avoid the last minute heartbreak of last season. These fixtures perhaps allow City to ease into the season a little more than their rivals, though any slips will instantly see the pressure heaped onto the new man.

           The final contenders, Chelsea, begin with a comfortable home tie against promoted Hull City, giving new manager Jose Mourinho a gentle re-introduction to English football. I doubt the 'Special One' will need much time to integrate, and a trip to Old Trafford will certainly bring Chelsea back to earth, giving them their first proper investigation. However, with Mourinho's positive record against United, and with the London club's spending power, this may be their first opportunity to stamp their authority on this season. Another winnable tie at home to last season's relegation threatened Aston Villa follows, before another tough away game against Roberto Martinez's Everton. They round off their opening 5 with a visit from London rivals Fulham. Like City, you would expect Chelsea to obtain a healthy number of points in this period, giving the new man a good chance to bed himself into the club. In this section, City appear to have the easiest of the fixtures, however United will have rid themselves of games against both of their main rivals, which could be a help or a hindrance to their season.

          Moving onto the mid-season fixtures, it is important to look at the busiest time of the season to assess how the momentum may swing throughout the season. I will look at the fixtures from December 14th to January 1st, between which there will be 5 games. This is a period that Manchester United typically perform well in, and often base their success upon. However, consistent results often come hand-in-hand with a generous fixture list. United start this period with a winnable tie at Aston Villa, before hosting a tall West Ham side. A further two fortunate fixtures follow these, with consecutive away games at Hull and Norwich, before a difficult home game against Champions League chasing Tottenham. With the exception of the final game, United's fixture list in this critical part of the season could give them the valuable momentum they require. City, in contrast, begin this critical period with two testing visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, sandwiched around a trip to Fulham. A more straight-forward home game against Crystal Palace follows these, with City ending the period with a New Year's Day trip to Swansea, another tough challenge. This period may well end up being the defining feature of City's season, either pushing them towards the title, or potentially wrecking their aspirations. Chelsea's fixtures more resemble those of Man City, as after an initial visit from Crystal Palace, an examination at the hands of Arsenal, Swansea and then Liverpool will give the Blues little respite. Chelsea then begin 2014 with a trip to Southampton, a ground they famously lost at last season, and will be looking to rectify this campaign. In this period, United appear to have the upper hand, with their fixtures being relatively kind. Their rivals both have fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea, making Christmas a particularly stressful one this year.

           Ending with the run-ins, Manchester United once again can consider themselves rather fortunate. With their only loseable game being a tasty affair at Goodison Park, which will see David Moyes's return to his old club, United have games against Hull, Norwich and Sunderland before ending with a winnable, but potentially banana-skin tie against Southampton. Certainly an opportunity for the champions to garner some momentum towards the end of the campaign. In contrast, Manchester City, once again, have a relatively tough run in. Kicked off with a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, City then host last season's over-achievers West Brom, before successive trips to Crystal Palace and then bogey side Everton. A relatively straight-forward final day looks on the cards at home to West Ham, but should it come down to that game, we have seen that nothing looks straight-forward when City are concerned. Finally, Chelsea's run-in probably ranks somewhere in between the two, visiting both Swansea and Liverpool, with a home tie against Sunderland in between. Two expected wins finish Chelsea's season, with Norwich and Cardiff rounding off what Mourinho will hope is a successful return. However, once again, Manchester United appear to have the simplest run-in on paper, though games are rarely played on paper.

          I understand that these fixtures are subject to change based on television rights and other competitions, and therefore my predictions may be rendered irrelevant. Based on the fixtures as they have been announced, the analysis tends to suggest that United should be considered initial favourites to retain the title. I also recognise that in all probability, my analysis will prove to be completely wrong. But that is football.    

         

The Worst Kept Secret in 2013: Manchester United Win Premier League Title

              Seeing as I am a lifelong blue, and therefore (as I would call it), a ‘proper Mancunian’, it is with a heavy heart that I say the following words: Congratulations to Manchester United on winning their 20^th title in the 2012/2013 Premier League. Now is not the time for bickering over geographical locations and semantics, though I do so regularly with my red friends. There is one thing that most City fans will concede: that Manchester United deserve the title this season. Being a pessimist (oddly for a similar amount of time as I’ve been a City fan-I’m convinced the two are related) I have to admit I was worried for our title defence as soon as United secured that vital, albeit slightly flukey, Samir Nasri aided victory back in December (I’m not still bitter, honest!). Since then, my greatest fears have been recognised, and United have practically strolled to the league title, securing it tonight with an emphatic 3-0 win over Aston Villa.

 

                This season encapsulates everything I have known about City from a very early age, that they are consistently inconsistent. The only difference now is it is two divisions above where they were when I was growing up (so I suppose I shouldn’t complain too much). Whilst City have had great performances this season, reminiscent of last year’s glory, they have all too often had poor away days (Everton and yesterday at Tottenham spring instantly to mind). If I have learnt anything over my 21 years, it is that if there is one side you cannot afford to give an inch to in a title race, it is Manchester United. Once again the picture of consistency, their mid-season unbeaten run of 18 games clearing a path to what seemed the inevitable title. And yet, to the most optimistic of Manchester City fans and journalists, the events of Monday 8^th April threw everything back into contention. Already 15 points behind in the title race, City went to Old Trafford and produced arguably their best performance of the season, winning 2-1. Cue calls that the title race is not dead, calls that only increased in volume when United drew 2-2 with West Ham in mid-week. I, like most City fans and realists, knew the title race had long since been over, and therefore did not need this weekend’s result at Spurs to tell me as much. In fact, prior to the game at Old Trafford, I had been anxiously looking over my shoulder at the chasing pack. All I hope is that the result at Old Trafford is a more representative look at both of the top two teams, playing to their best. This will hopefully give a better picture for me next season, when City can hopefully regain the crown.  

 

                Whilst I am glad I have been spared the heart-attack inducing, ‘typical City’, last five minutes of the Premier League campaign that we saw last May, I had initially hoped that we would have a good chance at retaining the title. I don’t want to get into a significant argument regarding ‘you bought success’ etc, but I will say this. In my mind, £5 is £5, whether you spend it over 5 minutes or 20 years. Both City and United have spent a considerable amount of money on players over the years, but United have had that spending power for longer. I believe that herein lies the edge. It allows time for new signings to gel within a team, creating a stronger atmosphere and a greater understanding between the players. As much as football commentators claim that Robin Van Persie has been the difference between the two sides this season (and he has been a good purchase, don’t misunderstand), the primary force behind United’s success is the man on the touchline. Love him or loathe him, he seems to have an incredible talent for gelling what would otherwise be just above average players together. I am not attempting to say that United do not have quality players-clearly they do. However, within the squad, there appear to be only a handful of truly outstanding players. The rest form a highly successful team behind the individual flair players. And that is the key word, ‘team’. There is no doubt that Manchester United have been the best ‘team’ this season. If you are looking for the strongest set of individuals, I would argue you should look no further than Eastlands. That is not how championships are won, however. Players are bought in the short term, but a team is manufactured in the long term.

                So congratulations to Manchester United, and here’s hoping for a good many years of North West dominance in football. As for the fans of both, at least we can put our petty squabbles behind us... Well, at least for another 4 months until it all starts again!