PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Sunderland

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Stoke City

Last season
The inevitable great escape. Having occupied one of the bottom three slots more than any of their rivals (excluding the clearly doomed Aston Villa) last season, a change of management once again worked wonders for the Black Cats. Sam Allardyce, with all his experience of steering teams away from the drop, did exactly the same on Wearside. Even sweeter for Sunderland, it was their local rivals Newcastle that took their place in the second tier!

Backroom setup
However, the success experienced by Allardyce came at a cost for the Black Cats. Following the inept showing of the national team at Euro 2016, Allardyce had made it clear that he would be interested in replacing Roy Hodgson as England coach. After a brief interview period, which included the likes of Steve Bruce, Big Sam was selected as Hodgson's replacement, throwing the Wearside club back into uncertainty.

However, one relegation battle expert was replaced by another, with the appointment of David Moyes. Despite suffering a torrid time at Manchester United and Real Sociedad, Moyes has demonstrated his ability to manage in the Premier League, keeping Everton afloat and leading them to Europe in his 10 years in charge at Goodison. He will certainly look to stamp his authority on Sunderland early to get them pulling in the right direction.

Pre-season
Despite the uncertainty and backroom turmoil, the on-field staff seem to have not been affected, remaining unbeaten throughout their pre-season campaign. In particular, the squad finished with creditable 1-1 draws with both Montpellier and Borussia Dortmund, highlighting the strength of character at the club.

Before the marquee matches, the Black Cats had racked up four consecutive victories on their travels, both in the UK and France. Having started with a comfortable 3-0 win at Hartlepool, which saw Jermain Defoe blitz two in fifteen minutes, Sunderland edged out Rotherham in a 2-1 victory. Having travelled to the continent, two Duncan Watmore penalties saw them surpass Stade Nyonnais, before a tight 3-2 win over Dijon.

Squad and signings
Amidst all the chaos and confusion, little has been done in the way of signings so far this year, and the squad remains largely as it was at the end of last season. The club has made a couple of defensive signings, with the additions of Chelsea defensive reject Papy Djilobodji for £8m, as well as raiding Manchester United's youth team for Paddy McNair and Donald Love in a deal worth an estimated £5m. Moyes has also made it clear he would be interested in signing both Adnan Januzaj and Marouane Fellaini from Manchester United, but concedes the latter may well be too expensive.

The most high profile exit of the window so far has to be that of Emmanuele Giaccherini, despite an outstanding Euro 2016 with Italy. Having spent the majority of his time at Sunderland away from the Black Cats, he finally made his move back to Italy permanent with a £2m switch to Napoli. Santiago Vergini also made his way back to his native land in a £1.5m move to Boca Juniors, while there were free transfers for Danny Graham, Wes Brown and Steve Harper.

Tactics
Standard David Moyes tactics require the addition of a muscular man for target practice, having favoured the likes of Victor Anichebe and Yakubu in his Everton days. The acquisition of Fellaini would certainly cover that off, but may hinder the success of Jermain Defoe, who has proven positively prolific since his move to Wearside. That said, the bite in the midfield will remain in the form of Lee Cattermole, while I expect Wahbi Khazri to play a key role over the next 12 months.

Predictions

They will inevitably avoid relegation - it's just what they do. With Moyes at the helm, I actually expect them to to it more comfortably than last time. Not much more, but with a few games to spare.

Final position: 15th

Louis Van Moyes: Has The 'Dutch Master' Improved Things?

What no difference a year makes... That's the saying isn't it? 12 months ago, David Moyes was bemoaning a fixture list that saw the club record its worst Premier League opening five games - the worst start since 1989/90. Berated, and quite rightly I might add, for the poor results he achieved in that time, but few would have expected that in just one year, that record would be not only in jeopardy, but broken. With hugely decorated and experienced manager Louis van Gaal, fresh off a remarkable third place finish for the Dutch national team at the World Cup, at the helm, it seemed Manchester United were in safe hands. The gamble with Moyes had not paid off, and now was time to resort to a more secure option.

But has van Gaal been the safe bet everyone assumed? After five fixtures of this season, Louis van Gaal's Manchester United were two points worse off than the team led by Moyes. More concerning for the new manager is the fact that when it comes to the fixture list, Moyes has a point. In the opening five fixtures of the ex-Everton manager's reign, United made difficult trips to Manchester City and Liverpool, while hosting Chelsea. If seven points seemed like scant reward from five Premier League matches, especially as defending champions, this season has been nothing short of a disaster. After defeats at home to Swansea and away at newly-promoted Leicester City, along with another disappointing 0-0 draw at Burnley, van Gaal's Manchester United ended up with just five points, and from a far easier set of games.

And that's not even starting to look at the transfer policies. While Moyes is hardly the Archangel Gabriel when it comes to transfer dealings, particularly on deadline day, panic buying Marouane Fellaini for £27m (£4m more than he could have got him for just a few months before), and failing to secure the signature of Ander Herrera after some shambolic goings on in Bilbao. However, it was clear that he never had the full backing of the United back room staff when it came to transfers, with chief executive Ed Woodward denying him the opportunity to splash the cash. However, that has not been a problem for van Gaal. Over £150m has gone out of the door this summer, with Angel di Maria and Luke Shaw accounting for the best part of £100m. While it is not fair to say they are failures just yet, only di Maria has made any kind of immediate impact, and defensively they look shocking.

But why is that? In fairness, part of that is beyond van Gaal's control. After their disappointing last season, three of United's regular back four left the club, with club captain Nemanja Vidic and ageing pair Patrice Evra and Rio Ferdinand opting to cut their losses. That kind of loss would shatter any club's confidence and performance, but I don't think that is entirely to blame for United's current predicament. Tactically, van Gaal and his players have looked inept at times so far this season. Unable to choose between 3, 4 or even 5 at the back, the lack of continuity has had devastating effects on communication in defence and understanding.

Having watched United a few times already this season, they look irresistible going forward at times, but when put under pressure defensively, they crumble. Without the presence of a strong leader at the back, no-one seems to want to take control. As a result, comical moments like numerous defenders going for the same ball, or marking the same man, have been prevalent this season. While some may be quick to blame the exuberance of youth, with the likes of Tyler Blackett and Paddy McNair making their first-team debuts, they have been some of the more consistent performers so far this year (Blackett's performance at Leicester excepted).

So how can United put this right? As much as pundits like Phil Neville suggest continued mega-spending, that will not do anything for the continuity and understanding of the team. Being a City fan, I have seen the impact of attempting to build a team of Galacticos overnight - it simply doesn't work quickly. City took three years to rebuild to form a side that can challenge for the top 4, so for United to expect that a continuing influx of quality players will inevitably lead to their re-coronation at the top of English football, they are very much mistaken. In my opinion, United's best route forward is to accept that this is not simply an isolated season of struggle, and to focus on honing the players they already have, with the addition of a couple of high-profile names a season. The players they have brought in this season are quality, but they need time to adjust.

So is it unfair that van Gaal looks like getting time where Moyes didn't? Absolutely. Had Moyes have made the same purchases that van Gaal has, and struggled in the same way, then the backlash would have been far more severe. The hashtag #MoyesOut was trending on Twitter from November onwards - will van Gaal have the same thing? I very much doubt it, though the joke #LouisvanMoyes has been made by Twitter users. However, it may well be that van Gaal can turn this round. In the meantime, van Gaal's track record and ability to pull big name signings may well prove enough to keep him in a job, regardless of the performances.

Louis van Moyes? The comparison will only please one man, and I think he made a trip to Turkey recently to see about the Galatasaray job.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Title Race)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Beginning with the title race, I (wrongly as it turned out) assumed that the winner would almost inevitably come from one of the three teams that have shared the title for the last 10 years: Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea. Though we now know we need to throw Liverpool into the mix, it is worth looking back over the fixtures, and seeing just how right (or often, wrong) I was.

Strangely, based on the fixtures I picked Manchester United to retain their title. I identified the three key times of the season, looking at the five fixtures at the beginning, middle and run-in. In reality, United have massively underperformed in both of the beginning and middle fixtures. Though they started well, with an emphatic 4-1 victory away at Swansea City, their form tailed off dramatically. A boring 0-0 draw with then-title rivals Chelsea was followed by two devastating defeats, away at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Manchester derby was particularly damaging, both for United's title chances, and David Moyes's credibility, as the Red Devils were comprehensively outplayed (the first of many times that would occur this season). Though I did not select United to start the season particularly well, I did not expect them to collapse quite so spectacularly.

Manchester City's start was considerably less tricky, and as a result saw them post a more healthy total after 5 games. Beginning the season with a 4-0 demolition of Newcastle, City were shocked by newly-promoted Cardiff City in a topsy-turvy game. Despite taking the lead, Cardiff came from behind to record one of the surprise results of the season, winning 3-2. This defeat evidently affected the Blues, as they laboured to a 2-0 victory in their next home game against Hull. A 0-0 draw at Stoke, historically a tough place to go, left City lagging behind slightly. However, the resounding victory over United sent out a real message into their title rivals and reinstated City's place towards the top of the table.

The final contenders I covered, Chelsea, began the season with a comfortable home win over Hull City, with fans rejoicing in the return of the 'Special One'. Though the fixtures changed slightly to accommodate the UEFA Super Cup, meaning that Chelsea picked up another home win over Aston Villa, that bore draw with Manchester United checked the rhythm of the Blues. This was further disrupted by the 1-0 defeat suffered at Goodison Park against a resurgent and difficult Everton. However, the 2-0 win over Fulham was the perfect tonic for their difficult period and meant that Chelsea could regain the momentum lost through their 100% home record.

I predicted that of those opening 5, it would be Manchester City that performed best, with Chelsea having to travel to Everton and Manchester United, and United having a horrible run of fixtures (causing David Moyes to have a meltdown about them - would it have happened with Fergie in charge?).  After the opening 5, I was still fairly confident that surprises like Cardiff's win against City was an example of teams bedding in and learning the ropes under a new manager, and I was confident that form would pick up as the season went on. Whilst I was not particularly surprised with the defeats United had away at City and Liverpool, the manner of them was shocking, and it looked like they would be the side most in need of adjustment.

End of First 5: Manchester United - 7pts (8th), Manchester City - 10pts (3rd), Chelsea - 10pts (4th)

To be fair to United and Moyes, whilst they looked defensively suspect, particularly at home, their away for has been impressive throughout the season, and eventually they began to improve in the mid-season period. Traditionally, the games over Christmas are where United really begin to gain momentum, so their rather fortunate five fixtures helped them considerably. Looking between the 14th December and New Year's Day, United began with a winnable tie at Aston Villa. With their excellent away form, win they did, and comfortably - 3-0. Three further victories, a 3-1 win at home to West Ham, a 3-2 come from behind win at Hull and an edgy 1-0 win over Norwich at Carrow Road saw United begin to string together results and gain momentum. However, once again their abysmal home form came back to bite them. Having already lost to Everton, Newcastle and West Brom at Old Trafford by this point, United's fortess of the past decades had been eradicated. This was proven once again with another dismal display at home to Tottenham, where goals from the rejuvenated Emmanuel Adebayor and the excellent Christian Eriksen gave Spurs a deserved 2-1 win and denting United's title prospects further.

Man City's mid-season fixture list was dauting, with visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as a tough tie at Swansea. I said in my earlier post that this may be the making or the breaking of City's season, and if so, it certainly made it. A 6-3 demolition of Arsenal in an incredible game at the Etihad saw City continue their unbelievable goalscoring form. Though they were winning, they were having to do it the hard way. A 4-2 away win at Fulham saw the Blues chuck a 2-0 lead away, before recovering to claim the three points. With similarly free-scoring Liverpool the next to travel to City, they could ill-afford more slip-ups. In a testing and absorbing contest, a Simon Mignolet error handed Alvaro Negredo the decisive goal in a 2-1 victory for the Blues. Two further wins at home to Crystal Palace and away at Swansea saw City claim maximum points from the mid-season and keep themselves very much in the hunt for the silverware.

Chelsea had a similarly difficult run of games, but they started with a comfortable (but not too easy) 2-1 win at home to a resurgent Crystal Palace. Mourinho's tactics ensured that they left their next game at the Emirates with their goal untroubled, but too often left them toothless upfront in a boring 0-0 draw. The lack of goals has been a theme throughout this season for Chelsea, and this was proven with the 1-0 win at Swansea, where Samuel Eto'o missed several golden opportunities to make the scoreline more emphatic. However, winning is winning, and a huge victory in the crunch game at home to Liverpool ensured that Chelsea remained well in the title race approaching the New Year. A dominant 3-0 win at the difficult St Mary's Stadium in Southampton saw Chelsea move within two points of the top spot, having taken 13 from the 15 points available in the period.

Here I was surprised. I predicted that it would be Manchester United that performed best of the three, as their fixtures seemed markedly easier than either those of Chelsea or City. However, it is probably unfair to castigate too much, as all three sides had excellent mid-season periods, with 12 out of 15 being the worst return. City's demolition of Arsenal sent out a warning shot to the rest of the Premier League that they were ready to fight their corner to the end, whilst Chelsea were quietly creeping up behind. By this point, United had already lost too much ground to put them in the title shake-up, and their efforts were now focused on claiming that all important 4th place. If they continued the way they managed in the mid-season, this was certainly possible.

End of Middle 5: Manchester United - 34pts (7th), Manchester City - 44pts (2nd), Chelsea - 43pts (3rd)

So what happened as the season reached its climax? Well, United continued to be consistently inconsistent, with their away form remaining the best in the division. However, their home form continues to be their undoing, and they seem incapable of competing in the big games. Heavy 3-0 defeats in successive games against Liverpool and Manchester City followed the 3-1 loss to Chelsea, ultimately ending United's push for a Champions League place. How badly this will affect the future of the club remains to be seen, but irrespective of what Moyes says, I truly believe that it will have a negative impact on the calibre of player United can attract. As a result, I would not be surprised to see a lot of new faces at United over the summer, but few will be huge headline names.

Manchester City, rocked by injuries to key personnel at times, have gone off the boil at a critical moment. Despite looking unstoppable at times in the mid-season, cruising past Spurs, Norwich and Arsenal with huge scores, the injury to Sergio Aguero has halted their goalscoring prowess. They, like United have failed in the big games, with a pair of defeats against Chelsea being followed by an incredibly damaging 3-2 defeat away at Liverpool (marked as a title decider). Wednesday's draw with Sunderland takes the title well and truly out of their hands, and they now need someone to do them a favour if they are to reclaim the trophy they won two years ago.

Chelsea have continued in the vein they have seen all season - winning games, but not scoring goals. As such, they are within touching distance of leaders Liverpool, but without a particularly good goal difference or any games with spectacular scorelines. Though they would now be favourite of the three I picked to win the title from here, it is interesting consider the three in the race and how I believe it will pan out as we head into the home straight.

5 To Go: Liverpool (1st), Chelsea (2nd), Manchester City (3rd)

The real surprise of the season was the rise of Liverpool. Their potent attacking force has made the Anfield side difficult to stop this campaign, as proven by their monumental home victories against all of their title rivals thus far. However, two damaging results ensured that the title would be making its way back to Manchester for the fourth successive year. Chelsea's brilliant, if a little dull, victory at Anfield was followed by an incredible collapse at Crystal Palace, handing momentum, and ultimately the trophy, back to City.

City, after their defeat at Liverpool, and the 2-2 draw with Sunderland, seemed rank outsiders for the title. However, 6 successive wins, including tough away ties at The Eagles and Goodison Park, a traditional bogey ground, meant that a final day coast at home to West Ham handed them the crown.

Jose Mourinho's Chelsea, having beaten the Reds, shot themselves in the foot, dropping points at home to Sunderland and Norwich, wrecking what promised to be a golden return for the Special One.

At the end of one of the closest championship battles for years, we could have seen the trophy back in the North West - but not in the place you would expect. However, one of the most exciting races in recent memory promises to be even more so next year, with free-spending Chelsea and Manchester City likely to be joined by Manchester United and Arsenal, if they can avoid injuries. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Liverpool can marry European football, particularly Champions League, with a decent domestic campaign. We have seen sides struggle to compete for multiple honours, and it will be a real test of Brendan Rodgers' small squad next year.

Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?

As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.

Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.

Team	Manager Out (Games)	PPG	Manager In (Games)	PPG
Cardiff City	Malky Mackay (18)	0.94	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15)	0.8
Crystal Palace	Ian Holloway (8)	0.38	Tony Pulis (24)	1.63
Fulham	Martin Jol (13)	0.77	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77
Fulham	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77	Felix Magath (9)	1.11
Norwich City	Chris Hughton (32)	0.97	Neil Adams (3)	0
Swansea City	Michael Laudrup (24)	1	Garry Monk (11)	1.09
Sunderland	Paolo di Canio (5)	0.2	Gus Poyet (27)	1.04
Tottenham Hotspur	Andre Villas Boas (16)	1.69	Tim Sherwood (19)	1.89
West Bromwich Albion	Steve Clarke (16)	0.94	Pepe Mel (13)	0.92

From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.

So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:

Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)

As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.

So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.

Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.

The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.

It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.

As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.

The Veil Is Slipping: Are United Still In The Title Race?

                          The worst start to a Premier League season. This is the (unwanted) record that the 2013/14 Manchester United squad, and David Moyes, have claimed. I hate the term 'transition period', as it is all too often used as an excuse by managers and fans alike to explain poor form. A recent example would be, in my opinion, Liverpool. In the last 5 years, the Reds' form has dipped significantly, with each of Roy Hodgson, Kenny Dalglish and Brendan Rodgers claiming that Liverpool were in 'transition'. However, in United's case, I believe it is justified. After a managerial dynasty, the like of which the Premier League has never seen before, it was always likely to take Manchester United some time to regroup and adjust. However, there remain those who are surprised by their recent dip in form, with many suggesting that United may be out of the title race already. This post will examine this claim, whilst also looking at alternative explanations for the champions' sudden decline.

                            Man Utd have begun this 2013/2014 Premier League season with three defeats, two draws, and just three victories, leaving them on a grand total of 11 points after 8 games. This represents the club's worst start to a Premier League season ever, and their worst start to a campaign in 24 years. Bearing in mind all three of the sides considered to be in the hunt for the Premier League crown (Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea) have changed their managers, it was always going to be an interesting start to the season. Most United fans believed that they could therefore compare their performances and results to those of their rivals, as they had all gone through a period of instability. When they see their side 8th, and 8 points off the lead of the Premier League, 5 and 6 points behind City and Chelsea respectively, we have seen many become disenchanted. However, I consider the disenchanted to be short-termist supporters (and generally fair-weather fans), and I say that for two reasons. The first is that Manchester United, as I discussed in my Premier League fixtures post, recieved the toughest start to the campaign of the three title contenders. With Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City all in their opening five fixtures, two of which were away, it was always going to be tough for United to gain too much momentum. The second is Sir Alex Ferguson.

                               One misjudgement that Manchester United fans make when they compare Manchester City's and, in particular, Chelsea's situation to their own. In Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United had a manager that was with them for quarter of a century, providing them with success unrivalled by any other English club. It is only natural that he will have shaped the club in a particular way, making it incredibly difficult for the next man coming in. If losing Ferguson was not enough, the club would have been further destabilised by the loss of chief executive David Gill. Another incredibly influential member of the footballing world. His replacement, Ed Woodward, was widely considered to have had a poor transfer window, managing to bring in only Marouane Fellaini, despite several key failures. Comparing this to City and Chelsea, we see no such backroom instability. Roberto Mancini at City, whilst he was successful, did not have the same effect on the backroom as Ferguson, meaning that Manuel Pellegrini's transition would be much smoother. For Chelsea, the transition would be even more easy, as Jose Mourinho has managed Chelsea before, and will therefore be accustomed to the Premier League, and the club. Comparisons made between the three clubs are, in my mind, unfair, as United have had to deal with far more internal turmoil than either of their rivals.

                                Something else that many short-termist Manchester United 'fans' often forget (or perhaps do not even know) is that their idol, Sir Alex Ferguson, was within minutes of a sacking way back before he won his first title. Had he been disposed of, United would almost certainly not be the force we know them as today. In a move regarded as one of the best in history, Manchester United bosses took a risk on the Scottish manager, despite a dismal early United career. It would pay off handsomely, with 13 Premier League titles following. It is that same patience that new man David Moyes will be asking for from United bosses and fans alike. I'm not so sure he will get it...

                                 David Moyes has been heavily criticised by many in recent weeks. The team's abject performance in the Manchester derby was followed by the shock loss at home to West Brom. In no league game since the opening day has the side looked settled and confident, and fans are placing the majority of the blame on the shoulders of the manager. He also shouldered blame for the club's lack of activity in the transfer market. Missing out on key targets like Thiago Alcantara, Gareth Bale and Ander Herrera meant that they had to settle for an ex-Moyes charge, Marouane Fellaini. However, even that was a flawed move. United had allowed a £24 Million minimum fee release clause to expire, meaning that the Belgian cost the Red Devils an extra £4 Million. A move that prompted wide calls of financial incompetance and lack of vision, also seemingly illustrating Moyes's inability to draw in the big players. With the American owners, the Glazers, there is no guarantee that the Abramovic-style short-termism won't win out, meaning that Moyes finds himself in line at the job centre. However, is it really fair that he shoulders the entirety of the blame?

                                  I would certainly argue no. David Moyes has not become a bad manager overnight. He performed miracles year after year at Everton, where he was given the time to build the squad the way he wanted. Admittedly, the expectations at Manchester United are quite difficult to those of Everton, but the point remains the same. It is also important to point out that the current crop of Manchester United players would hardly make their best Premier League XI. There are a few gems (Robin van Persie, Wayne Rooney and Nemanja Vidic spring to mind), but there is little in terms of strength in depth at United. If we compare their players to those at City or Chelsea, they are certainly at a significant disadvantage. United fans may attempt to contradict me here, using last season's emphatic victory in the league as evidence of their squad's quality. My counter-argument would be this: United had their backroom working effectively, with a manager that knew the squad and the team inside-out, meaning he could get the best out of them. City, on the other hand, were divided, with several player revolts against Mancini. I think most sides could have beaten City last season. This year, both the lack of quality in the squad, and Moyes's lack of squad knowledge hinders the side on the field, and the turmoil behind the scenes means that players are not brought in, inevitably transferring onto the pitch.

                              People also point, quite rightly, to the change of mindset of teams when they play United, especially when they travel to Old Trafford. However, once again, I believe they misunderstand when they apply blame to Moyes for this. Such was the strength of Ferguson-led Manchester United teams, due to the manager's depth of squad knowledge, teams would come to Old Trafford expecting to lose, and treating a draw as though they had won. His retirement lifts that feeling, and teams can now exploit United's many weaknesses, as illustrated by the results thus far. I believe that this would have been the same had it been Moyes, Klopp or Guardiola in the United dugout. The new United manager was always going to struggle initially, perhaps for the rest of this season, as he can only work with what he has been given. What Moyes has been given is arguably the league's best strike force, but little in the midfield, and a defence that remains shaky at times. Ferguson's tactical knowledge instilled a sense of invincibility, which a manager can only grant a side after a considerable stint at the club. Expecting Moyes to come in and instantly perform to a similar standard is deluded. For opposing teams, I believe it is a case of 'making hay whilst the sun shines', as a suspect United will not stay this vulnerable for long.

                                So are United out of the title race? No. Simple as that. Arsene Wenger was quite right in his comments today. There is still plenty of time for the Red Devils to find their best form. In fact, it has been a trademark of both Manchester United and David Moyes teams in the past to come back strongly after Christmas. If they continue their current form until then, that resurgency may come too late. However, to write someone's title ambitions off after 8 games is ludicrous, and is indicative of the short-term nature of contemporary football.

                                Will Moyes be sacked? If it was up to me, not a chance. From a City point of view, I have made several jokes to United friends that David Moyes is the best thing to happen to City, so long may this early season form continue. However, I suspect that if United stick with the Scot, I will be smiling on the other side of my face soon enough. You cannot judge a new manager on 8 games (despite what many fans and chairmen think). If United get rid of Moyes, they will be in danger of falling into the trap that City (over the years) and Chelsea have fallen into. It is proven: a revolving door policy rarely brings sustained success. Find the right man, and stick with him. If fans believed Ferguson was the right man, they should be right behind Moyes. After all, the man who won them 13 Premier League titles did choose him for the job.

Diving: A Red Card Offence?

                             Last weekend's events, most notably David Moyes's comments after Manchester United's home victory against Crystal Palace, has brought the topic of diving back into the public eye. So many players are accused of it, and there there are discussions in pubs up and down the land assessing what the appropriate penalty for divers is. The current system of a yellow card for 'simulation' is widely considered to be too lenient. However, is the answer really, as Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish has suggested, a straight red card for diving offences? This post will look at the offence as it is currently defined, before examining the possible new punishments for the crime.

                               In order to fully understand the topic in question, it is worth consulting the FA definition of diving (or 'simulation'). Diving constitutes: 'an attempt by a player to gain an unfair advantage by diving to the ground and possibly feigning an injury, to appear as if a foul has been committed'. This seems relatively clear, and you would expect to see fairly regular punishments based on this definition. However, it proceeds to state that: 'a referee should be 100% certain that a player has simulated (feigned) an unfair challenge before cautioning the offender for unsporting behaviour. The referee must be convinced that there has been no physical contact whatsoever by the player challenging for the ball.' This is the cause of the controversy, as this clause means that referees tend to be overly lenient on simulation, not wanting to call a player a cheat, and this sometimes leads to miscarriages of justice when the referee gets it wrong. We will examine this in more detail later.

                                 Looking purely at the definition as it stands, we should perhaps compare it with other offences. By examining both those considered to be worthy of yellow and red cards, we will be able to see which category this offence more resembles. If we look at the options in both categories, I would say that 'unsporting conduct' would most easily be comparable from the yellow card section. The red card section does not appear to have an easily comparable alternative, with neither serious foul play, nor violent conduct accurately describing the act. If we run with the unsporting conduct offence, there are clear parallels between the pair. This indicates that perhaps the initial classification of diving as a yellow card carries weight.

                                 However, two alternatives have been suggested by prominent men in English football. We will begin by the suggestion made by Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish, that diving should constitute a straight-red card offence. Despite my above paragraph, there is evidence to suggest that this may be a possible alternative. Diving is a scourge in world football, and needs to be stamped out. If we look at another offence that has been 'stamped down upon', we find that racism has been much more heavily punished in recent years, in an attempt to eradicate it from the game. Now, I am not for one moment saying that diving is as bad as racism, however, I am merely making the point that if you want rid of an aspect from a game, you must penalise every instance heavily. Therefore, a case could certainly be made for the introduction of a heavy-handed penalty for diving, at least until the act is not so prominent. However, there are a couple of problems with this. Firstly, there will be the inevitable comparison between diving and the other red card offences, which illustrates the gap in severity. Simulation does not seem on the same page as intentionally breaking someone's leg, but, under this rule change, they would be considered equally severe. Secondly, there is a more pressing issue with the rules. As the current idea of diving is so open to interpretation, there are already many instances of referees making the wrong call. Under these new rules, a referee making the wrong call could irreparably change the outcome of the game, potentially ruining a team's season. Until we solidify what is considered a dive, I feel that a red card could not be awarded for the offence.

                                     The second alternative is one that appears far more reasonable. David Moyes, having stated that he wanted to stamp out diving from his own club, with Ashley Young coming in for further criticism, then suggested that video technology should be used to retrospectively ban players who have been proven to have dived. As much as that will be a dagger to the heart of Michel Platini, I think that this is an excellent idea. It lowers the fear of referee's getting a decision woefully wrong and costing a team a game in an instant, whilst ensuring that those guilty of diving are rightfully punished. I would introduce an initial ban of 4 games for a diving offence, meaning that there is that aspect of over the top punishment with a more accurate justice system, which I believe forms a nice middle ground. Once simulation has begun to die out of the game, a reduction in the ban could then be enacted. However, I suspect that none of these will be considered, players will be allowed to con referees and dive all over the place. This will continue to cause a horrible Catch 22 situation for referees, who will be blamed as much if they fail to penalise a dive, than if they wrongfully penalise one. And it will continue to be the topic of pub gossip for years to come.

Everton: Top Dogs in Liverpool? And What Now?

2012/2013 Season Review:

                One of the most stable sides in the country, with consistent top 8 finishes for the last 5 years, Everton began the season looking for further consolidation, and to perhaps achieve what Newcastle had managed the previous campaign: to challenge for the Champions League. With signings such as Kevin Mirallas from Olympiakos, they simply added speed to their growing list of talents, managing to hold on to all of their key names from the previous season. Everton, being perennial slow starters, wanted to find more consistency and good performances from the very start of the season. Beating Manchester United on the opening weekend is certainly a good way to start! With Marouane Fellaini in exceptional form for the first month of the season, Everton won 4 of their opening 6 league games. Despite a disappointing Capital One Cup exit at the hands of Championship side Leeds United, Everton maintained their strong League form throughout September.

                Often the quiet side that sneaks up into the top six, Everton were once again fulfilling those expectations. Unspectacularly but critically amassing the points, whilst steering clear of significant controversies like at Chelsea, Everton looked in a strong position going into October. Four straight league draws slowed the Toffee’s bandwagon slightly. If we were to be pessimistic, we could say that Everton won 2 of 11 matches between October and mid-December, but on the other hand, only 2 league defeats in 15 matches sounds considerably better. To state the first statistic does Everton’s performances during this period a disservice, in my opinion, but you could certainly argue that it was during this part of the season where they lost the potential to challenge for a Champions League spot.

                Everton’s consistent form continued into the new year, where once again draws were relatively common, but defeats were impressively infrequent. If we go back to my earlier unbeaten stat and extend it further, we can see that Everton only lost 3 games in 23 between October and mid-February. Translate some of those draws to victories and we see a team highly capable of not only challenging for Champions League football, but being on the outskirts of the title shake-up. Progression to the Sixth Round of the FA Cup, albeit with a little Matt Smith inspired hiccup at Oldham, gives further indication that Everton can compete for multiple honours in the same season. There they met Wigan at home, leaving Everton strong favourites to progress to yet another Wembley Semi Final. Instead, three goals in 4 first half minutes propelled Wigan down to Wembley, and left Goodison Park stunned. The only performance all season where Everton were abject, but what an occasion to have it in!

                The latter part of Everton’s season was equally uneventful. With 6^th place virtually in the bag, and with it a guarantee to finish above Liverpool in the table once again, Everton could attempt to challenge Tottenham for the Europa League spot. An impressive 2-0 victory at home to Manchester City strengthened these aspirations, but as all too often, too many draws cost the Liverpudlians a shot at European qualification through the league. Chelsea’s Europa League victory has gifted a place in next year’s competition to Everton, and based on the vast majority of their performances this season, this is thoroughly deserved.

                The only significant talking point in Everton’s relatively uncontroversial season came in the last few weeks, with the announcement that David Moyes would be taking the reigns at Manchester United, after Sir Alex Ferguson stepped down after 26 years in charge. Moyes’s departure leaves arguably as large a hole at Everton as Fergie’s departure at United. After 11 years of fantastic and loyal service, Moyes gets the chance to manage a title-winning side, an opportunity he richly deserves. As for Everton, Roberto Martinez and Michael Laudrup have both been sounded out as potential replacements, but Moyes’s are big shoes to fill. He left this club top of its city and with European qualification. With the funds available to them, I wonder if the next manager will achieve that?

 

Player of the Season: Leighton Baines – A tough one between Baines and Fellaini, but I’m going to go for Baines. Fellaini, despite his fantastic start, became less effective as the season went on. In contrast, Baines remained consistently good throughout. He is the epitome of Everton’s season: highly successful but often unnoticed.

 

Game of the Season: Everton 2-0 Manchester City – This was never going to be either of the rather drap Merseyside derbies! The game in which I was most impressed with Everton, both as an attacking and defensive force, was in their victory over Man City in March. Despite having 10 men for half an hour, Everton dominated this game, and whilst they may have been lucky to survive a late handball appeal, they thoroughly deserved this win.

 

Summer Transfer Targets (Who I Think They Need): Firstly, replacing David Moyes is inevitably going to be of utmost importance. Roberto Martinez, especially after his years of heroics with Wigan, and his recent FA Cup giantkilling, seems to me the most likely candidate. Secondly, it depends on who David Moyes attempts to take with him, as I cannot see many turning down the opportunity to play at United. If no-one else leaves, I think very little in the way of alterations needs making, and given Bill Kenwright’s budget, that will suit him just fine! Perhaps just the addition of the impressive Callum McManaman, especially likely if Martinez becomes the manager, will give a bit extra pace and width to this Everton side.

 

Transfer Gossip Links:

In:

Luis Pedro Cavanda (Lazio, LB), Andreas Cornelius (Copenhagen, CM), Callum McManaman (Wigan Athletic, RW), Michael Laudrup (Swansea City, Manager), Roberto Martinez (Wigan Athletic, Manager)

Out:

David Moyes (Manchester United, Manager), Nikica Jelavic (West Ham United, ST), Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United, CAM), Leighton Baines (Manchester United, LB)