England Managers: What Does An Illustrious Club Career Actually Mean?

After the aberration of England's Euro 2016 exit to Iceland, it was clear that the tenure of Roy Hodgson was over. Cue a narrow, and slightly xenophobic search for England's next manager. From, let's be honest, a rather shallow pool of candidates, came the rather underwhelming announcement of Sam Allardyce. The ex-Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham, Blackburn and Sunderland manager has never really hit the heights in his club career, but was given the top job regardless.

However, how important is a successful club manager in the international game? To figure this out, I've looked back at the past 25 years of successful and failed England managers to compare their win rates, which should hopefully highlight a discernible trend.

Name	Clubs managed (pre-England)	W	D	L	Win rate	England win rate	Tournament high
Kevin Keegan	Newcastle United, Fulham	176	63	73	56.4%	38.89%	Group stage Euro 2000
Fabio Capello	AC Milan, Real Madrid, Roma, Juventus	311	165	79	56%	66.67%	R16 World Cup 2010
Sven Goran Eriksson	Goteborg, Benfica, Roma, Fiorentina, Sampdoria, Lazio	402	205	157	52.6%	59.7%	QF World Cup 2002, Euro 2004, World Cup 2006
Graham Taylor	Lincoln, Watford, Aston Villa	372	210	237	45.4%	47.3%	Group stage Euro 1992
Terry Venables	Crystal Palace, Queens Park Rangers, Barcelona, Tottenham Hotspur	297	193	183	44.1%	47.83%	SF Euro 1996
Sir Bobby Robson	Fulham, Ipswich	326	182	241	43.5%	49.47%	SF World Cup 1990
Roy Hodgson	18 clubs and countries, inc Inter Milan, Switzerland, Copenhagen, Liverpool	403	285	257	42.6%	58.93%	QF Euro 2012
Steve McClaren	Middlesbrough	97	60	93	38.8%	50%	Qualification Euro 2008
Glenn Hoddle	Swindon Town, Chelsea	102	86	84	37.5%	60.71%	R16 World Cup 1998

Looking at the statistics, it's interesting to see that arguably the three most successful England managers of the past quarter of a century (Sir Bobby Robson, Terry Venables and Sven Goran Eriksson) do not top the table when it comes to either club win rate, or indeed England win rate, with Fabio Capello and Glenn Hoddle, at the bottom when it comes to his club career, actually topping the England win percentage table.

From the table above, it certainly appears that there is no real rhyme or reason behind the club/national win ratios. It's absolutely not the case that the higher your win rate in club football, the higher your England win rate, or the more successful your career. If anything, it's slightly the opposite. Not so much in terms of percentages, but in terms of tournament performance, with the only semi final appearances in the last quarter century coming from individuals that have around 45 per cent win rates. However, the three below Venables and Robson have hardly done well in tournaments!

Interestingly, Sam Allardyce's current club win ratio stands at around 39 per cent across his time at a number of clubs including Bolton, Blackburn, Newcastle, Sunderland and West Ham United. I know we've just proven that this ultimately means very little, but it's interesting to see that he's not too far from the percentage of Steve McClaren at Middlesbrough (and we all know how that turned out!).

On a separate note, I'm always rather bemused by the immediate assumption that we'll only pick an Englishman. Why? One of our more successful managers of the last quarter of a century was foreign, and given the following couple of white, middle aged, dull Englishmen ultimately failing (ignoring the tumultuous reign of Fabio Capello), I don't understand why it isn't considered. It would be completely understandable to pick an Englishman if we invested in young talent for the long term. For example, my pick for the job was Bournemouth's Eddie Howe. Now, I know this is possibly asking too much in today's game, but give him as much time as he needs (almost regardless of results in the short term), because as Man United proved, only through patience can you reach your potential.

Alternatively, there was a Premier League winner available, with a management style that would certainly suit the typically reserved English style. Manuel Pellegrini has shown himself to value attacking and free-flowing football, which would certainly resonate with the English fans following the arguably defensive style of Roy Hodgson, while also being astute and softly spoken in interviews.

However, there is no use crying over spilt milk (a phrase I've never really understood the origins of - I mean, who's that upset at the concept of wasted calcium?), so we have to work with what we've got i.e. Big Sam. With him at the helm, and uncertainty already around the captaincy, who do we see coming into the squad, given his previous playing styles? Obviously, a lot will rest on form, but all things being even, this is my prediction for his first 25-man England squad:

Goalkeepers: Joe Hart (Manchester City), Fraser Forster (Southampton), Jack Butland (Stoke City)

Defenders: Danny Rose (Tottenham Hotspur), Aaron Cresswell (West Ham United), Chris Smalling (Manchester United), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), John Stones (Everton), Phil Jagielka (Everton), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), Nathaniel Clyne (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Tottenham Hotspur)

Midfielders: Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Mark Noble (West Ham United), James Milner (Liverpool), Eric Dier (Tottenham Hotspur), Adam Lallana (Liverpool), Ross Barkley (Everton), Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)

Strikers: Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Jamie Vardy (Leicester City), Jermain Defoe (Sunderland), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Andy Carroll (West Ham United)

2013/2014: The Year of the Free-Kick?

Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, David Beckham, Roberto Carlos. All of these men have been considered 'dead-ball specialists'. We have seen many spectacular goals from each of these from free-kicks, and it has become an essential to have such a player in your team. Very much like in rugby or American football, kicking has become an ever-more important aspect to football. Over the past few years, goals from free kicks has been fairly stable in the Premier League, with several players renowned for their ability, but few outside those beginning to chip in. However, this season, free kicks have taken a much more important role, and we have seen many players who you would not consider 'dead ball specialists' score them.

Looking at statistics, we can see that during the 2011/2012 season, 29 direct free kicks were scored, with Sunderland scoring the most (5). After just 15 games of the 2013/14 season, the total of free kicks scored has reached a staggering 20. If free kicks continue to be scored at this rate, we will see over 40 goals from free kicks this season, setting an all-time Premier League record.

So who has been scoring all of these free kicks? Though they may be top of the table and have marksmen like Podolski and Ozil to take them, Arsenal are yet to contribute to the free kick goal tally. Aston Villa have two, and both have been scored by the same man. Leandro Bacuna, the relatively unknown midfielder before this season, with spectacular efforts against Manchester City and Cardiff City, made himself well known to the Villa fans, and Premier League viewers around the world. Cardiff and Crystal Palace, like Arsenal are yet to score from one, but a familiar name in Frank Lampard has registered for Chelsea. Everton also contribute two from a single player, and Leighton Baines scored them both in the same match! Turning the game on its head, his two brilliant set pieces ensured Everton would leave West Ham with all three points.

Fulham have struggled to score goals all season, so that they do not appear on the list is unsurprising. Hull also do not feature, but Liverpool certainly do. In Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard they have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to free kicks, and the pair have not failed to deliver, with Gerrard scoring one against Hull, and Suarez contributing two, against Everton and in a four goal display against Norwich. Free-scoring Manchester City have been most prolific from dead balls, but not from the usual sources. Aleksandar Kolorov and David Silva are the club's recognised free kick takers, but Alvaro Negredo's goal against Swansea, and Yaya Toure's incredible haul of three, against Newcastle, Hull and Norwich, mean that Manuel Pellegrini may want to review his set piece takers! Manchester United have contributed with three, with Wayne Rooney scoring all, against Crystal Palace, Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion.

Newcastle, despite having an excellent taker in Yohan Cabaye, have failed to register a free kick yet this season, whilst Robert Snodgrass has added one for Norwich City. Southampton's resident specialist, Rickie Lambert has added another one for his collection, whilst Stoke have had efforts from Marko Arnautovic and Jermaine Pennant. Sunderland, despite their previous supremacy in this area, have also failed to score from a free kick this term. Swansea, West Brom and West Ham all have also failed to register, whilst Kyle Walker's recent effort against Manchester United is the only free kick from Spurs. Nevertheless, this is already nearly as many as the whole of 2011/2012, despite neither Gareth Bale nor Cristiano Ronaldo being in the league.

What could be causing this? If we were seeing players like Robin van Persie or Luis Suarez scoring more free-kicks, we could simply put it down to increasing player ability or speciality, but it is not. We are seeing a plethora of players scoring from free-kicks, many of whom have either never or infrequently scored from them before. Could it be to do with the ball? There have been complaints from goalkeepers in recent years that the balls move in the air far too much, making it impossible to track the path of the ball. However, has the ball changed so drastically over the past two years that it could account for the rapid increase in goals from direct free kicks? I think not. If we compare free kicks stats from now to those from the 1970's and 80's, then we could explain it that way, but two years is too little time.

However, another explanation may go some way to explaining it. Over the last decade, football has become less and less physical, with challenges often resulting in free kicks. Clubs have therefore cottoned on to the fact that dead balls are going to be of greater importance than ever before. As a result, further training has been done to improve the free kicks of a wide range of players. Whereas 10 years ago, perhaps only one or two specialist free kick takers would be used for dead balls, now any one of six or seven may be used. The correct accuracy and power will take time to perfect, so two years can make a massive difference in this time frame. This may not be the whole explanation, but I believe it goes some way to explaining the recent trend of free kick goals in the Premier League.

 This season has been truly record-breaking in terms of free kicks, and to do it without some of the greatest free kick takers in the world is astonishing. However, such is the importance of free kicks in football, I feel this will slowly become the norm. It will be extremely interesting to see if this trend continues over the next few seasons, as this will determine whether it was a flash in the pan, or if we are seeing the hard work on the training ground come to fruition in the Premier League. This may be the Year of the Free-Kick, but it may also be the beginning of a free-kick dynasty.