PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Stoke City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Middlesbrough, Southampton

Last season
Having thrown off the Tony Pulis shackles of long throws and borderline violent play, Stoke have slowly become one of the better footballing sides in the Premier League. Having attracted the likes of Marko Arnautovic, Bojan Krkic, and most impressively, Xherdan Shaqiri, Mark Hughes has the Potters playing like a top half side. It showed too, with Stoke finishing an impressive 9th, with their highest points tally of all time.

Backroom setup
Unsurprisingly, Mark Hughes is retained as coach, and will be charged with making his money continue to go further, as well as bringing in some defensive talent to even out the attacking flair currently at the club. Consistency was the only thing lacking last year, taking the Potters away from the European spots.

Pre-season
Bookended by disappointing results, Stoke's pre-season arguably didn't provide the greatest challenge for a Premier League club. With two games against Orlando City's A and B teams offering little in the way of true match practice, with the Potters winning against the first team 2-1, before a 5-0 hammering of the reserves. However, their other matches presented a greater problem than they should have done, beginning with a 3-0 defeat away at Championship Burton Albion.

Having done that, they could only manage a draw at Preston North End before heading stateside, with a 1-1 result hardly a convincing performance. While Mame Biram Diouf did manage goals in each of those three matches, any momentum that Stoke had built up was gone with a final match defeat at Hamburg, who narrowly avoided relegation from the Bundesliga last year.

Squad and signings
Mark Hughes has provided an overwhelming vote confidence in his Stoke squad, making just two signings for the first team. Most notably, the Potters signed defensive midfielder and 'Welsh Xavi' Joe Allen from Liverpool for a typically inflated £13m, while Ramadan Sobhi joined from Al Ahly for £5m.

Similarly, very little has happened on the reverse side, with only two first team players released in Steve Sidwell and Peter Odemwingie. Clearly, Hughes feels his squad has only improved since last year, and has the potential to compete with the sides around them, despite having spent considerable amounts.

Tactics
Far from the long ball tactics employed in the original Stoke City Premier League side, you can expect to see more of the slick football witnessed from the likes of Shaqiri, Arnautovic and Bojan. They will remain physically imposing at the back, but it's a much more attractive style of play than the Britannia Stadium became used to under Pulis.

Predictions
Stoke have been on a consistent roll, cementing themselves as a top half team in the last couple of years. I don't see that changing, but they may struggle over the coming years if more investment in players is not made.

Final position: 9th

Tactics Talk: Chelsea vs Stoke City

Lineups:

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Cech, Ivanovic, Terry, Cahill, Azpilicueta, Lampard, Matic, Willian, Salah, Schurrle, Torres

Stoke City (4-4-2): Begovic, Pieters, Shawcross, Cameron, Wilson, N'Zonzi, Palacios, Whelan, Arnautovic, Odemwingie, Crouch

After a terrible week for the Blues, which saw them first shocked by Crystal Palace in the Premier League, before being emphatically beaten by Paris Saint Germain in the Champions League first leg. For my Tactics Talk on that game, click here. With Jose Mourinho having suggested that his side's chances of reclaiming the Premier League title is now over, the game against Stoke was the perfect opportunity for his side to reassert themselves. With Chelsea making four changes from the mid-week, players like Matic, Salah and Torres all had the chance to make their mark and earn a place in the side that needs to turn around the 3-1 deficit to PSG. However, with Mourinho leaving Hazard and Oscar on the bench, this represented a huge opportunity to upset Chelsea again.

The context is also important. There was an additional pressure on Chelsea from the fact that a few hours earlier, Manchester City had laid down the gauntlet to their title rivals, defeating Southampton 4-1. This added an extra layer to an already overloaded Chelsea, a pressure that many sides would fold under.

From the start, Chelsea were quick out of the blocks, using the pace of Andre Schurrle and Willian out wide to penetrate Stoke's defence. As expected, the Potters were playing deep and looking for opportunities to play on the counter. However, unlike the usual Stoke days, where long balls would just be lumped out of defence up to Peter Crouch, Mark Hughes's Stoke looked to play the ball out on the deck, with Marco Arnautovic the key component. But this just played into the hands of Chelsea, who were more skilled at knocking the ball around and could win it back far more easily. As such, this meant that they gained momentum, with quick passing opening opportunities for Torres and Salah. With neither of them taking their chances, Mourinho switched to using triangles in the middle to cut open the Stoke back line, with Lampard, Torres and Matic instrumental in carving out chances for Ivanovic and Willian. Put despite these chances, Chelsea still could not shift the Stoke bus firmly parked at the far side of the ground.

First half hour: Chelsea dominant, but they just couldn't find a way through.

However, that bus was moved almost immediately after. Poor tracking by Peter Odemwingie allowed Matic to get in behind the defence and cut a ball back. More bad marking allowed Mohamed Salah to ghost in at the back post to smash a first time shot past Asmir Begovic. With wave after wave of Blue attack headed toward the Stoke goal, the visitors needed to be careful not to capitulate. The individual errors from the Stoke players kept putting them under pressure but, with a bit of luck, they refused to crack. Only a brilliant bit of assistant refereeing meant that Stoke went into the break just one down, disallowing Branislav Ivanovic's goal for the slightest of offsides. Nevertheless, the game was still being played on the edge of Stoke's area, and they would need to rectify this if they were to get anything out of it.

Mark Hughes made two changes at half time to attempt to reinforce their defence, with Andy Wilkinson and Charlie Adam replacing Geoff Cameron and Wilson Palacios. The second half started largely where the first left off, with more relentless Chelsea pressure. But once again there was no immediate reward. Mourinho then rang the changes, replacing the hardworking but ultimately ineffective Schurrle with Eden Hazard - it certainly didn't get any easier for Stoke! The impact was almost instantaneous. With Hazard at full flow, a rash challenge from Wilkinson handed Lampard the chance to extend Chelsea's lead, perhaps guaranteeing the three points. Though the initial kick was well saved by Begovic, the Chelsea man got the benefit of a kind bounce, easily turning home the  rebound. With no obvious sign of a Stoke reposte, it seemed only a matter of how many before the final whistle went.

Second half hour: With Stoke offering little in attack and camped on the edge of their own area, there can be no doubt that this period belonged to Chelsea.

With the attempts standing at 16-1 in Chelsea's favour, Stoke finally looked at applying a bit of pressure, building up a couple of corners in quick succession. But this came far too late for Stoke, as by now the game was long since lost. This was proven just a couple of minutes later, when Willian cut inside after a slick Chelsea move to curl a delightful shot into the top corner. This rounded off an excellent and morale-boosting victory, setting them up nicely for a huge tie in mid-week against the Parisians. All that was left to do was rest Lampard and Willian in preparation, bringing on David Luiz and Ashley Cole in their place. For Stoke, Jon Walters replaced the anonymous Peter Crouch, who up until that point had probably had about 10 touches of the ball, with the majority of them coming in his own half! With Neil Swarbrick putting the whistle to his lips to end the game, Chelsea's miserable week came to a promising end.

Final half hour: Chelsea were totally in control from first whistle to last, giving themselves some much needed relief after a tough couple of weeks in all competitions. Next up, the return leg against PSG that may just rebuild or break their season... 

Stoke City: Are They At The End Of The Line?

2013/2014: 13th

Transfer(s) In: Marc Muniesa (Athletic Bilbao, Free), Erik Pieters (PSV Eindhoven, £3 Million), Mark Hughes (Free Agent), Oussama Assaidi (Liverpool, Loan), Steven Ireland (Aston Villa, Loan), Marco Arnautovic (Werder Bremen, £2.5 Million)

Transfer(s) Out: Michael Owen (Retired), Rory Delap, Carlo Nash, Mamady Sidebe, Dean Whitehead, Matthew Upson (Released), Tony Pulis (Sacked)

Transfers Review:

                                                   The most important transfers that have been made at the Britannia this season have been made in the dugout rather than on the pitch. After his second spell of over half a decade in the Potteries, Tony Pulis was sacked after a poor season last time around. His replacement was, to the despair of many Stoke fans, former Blackburn, Manchester City and Queens Park Rangers boss Mark Hughes. Whilst many were disappointed with his appointment, I actually do not see him as too bad a choice. His high profile failures with both Manchester City and QPR were at clubs with a considerable amount of money, a feature some managers find it difficult to handle. At Blackburn, where the kitty was considerably lower, he was hailed as a bargain-hunter, with the likes of Roque Santa Cruz one of his greatest buys. Stoke appear to fit more into the second category, and I actually believe that Hughes is a reasonable choice.

                                                       His ability to make shrewd aquisitions has been illustrated by his five signings this summer. Marc Muniesa, a large part of Athletic Bilbao's run to the final of the Europa league a couple of seasons ago, was signed on a free transfer, and Erik Pieters, a Dutch central midfielder with good potential, was signed for a miserly sum (in footballing terms at least!) of £3 Million. Later on, two loan deals for Oussama Assaidi and Steven Ireland from Liverpool and Aston Villa, before a final deal for Werder Bremen's enigmatic Marko Arnautovic for a reported £2.5 Million. However, all of these players hardly fit the 'Stoke mould' under the stewardship of Tony Pulis. This implies that Hughes is attempting to stamp his authority on this Stoke team by altering their playing style from the long ball game we have all become so accustomed to.

                                                       There has also been a fair clearout of the more experienced players in the Stoke squad, with the majority of them being part of the side that took the Potters to the Premier League. Names like Upson, Whitehead, and even club legend Rory Delap, will not be on show at the Britannia next season, after all were released at the end of last campaign. This once again indicates a significant shift in regime, as Hughes wants rid of all of those considered to be surplus to requirements, and those more experienced players that were the core of the long ball game.

Pre-Season:

                                                          The Potters' pre-season has been indicative of a side that is going through a significant transitionary period, with performances perhaps not at the level that would otherwise have been expected. After a brief tour of America, during which they played teams like MLS side Philadelphia Union, they returned to the UK to face a couple of sides from the lower divisions as we moved into August. They opted to take part in friendlies against Blue Square Premier sides Macclesfield and Wrexham, and though they won the pair, they only managed to beat each side by the odd goal, which for a club four divisions above is simply unacceptable.

                                                            Their final pre-season match came against the Serie A side Genoa. Despite producing a much improved performance than those that preceeded it, Stoke were unable to find that goalscoring touch, a feature of their game that Hughes will be keen to eradicate. Last season, they were far too guilty of not scoring enough goals, and as a result drew too many games, putting them in danger of relegation.

Key Players:

                                                            If Stoke are to stave off relegation again this season, they will need their player of the season last year to be on top form once again. After much speculation, they will be glad to have retained the services of Asmir Begovic. The Bosnian, who has proven himself to be amongst the top 5 goalkeepers in the Premier League, is a good reason for so many of the clean sheets that the Potters have kept over the last few years. His reflexes and command of his area are superb, and it is little wonder that top 4 teams, such as Arsenal, have been reported to be watching him with interest.

                                                             In order to score more goals this campaign, the pace, skill and delivery of Jermaine Pennant will be vital. His quiet season last year meant that it was hardly a coincidence that the Potters found themselves in trouble come April. If the Englishman should stay fit and in form, Stoke will fancy themselves to stay away from trouble this time around.

Key Fixture Dates:

24/08/2013: Stoke vs Crystal Palace
29/09/2013: Stoke vs Norwich
04/12/2013: Stoke vs Cardiff
14/12/2013: Hull vs Stoke
18/01/2014: Crystal Palace vs Stoke
08/03/2014: Norwich vs Stoke
29/03/2014: Stoke vs Hull
19/04/2014: Cardiff vs Stoke

Top Goalscorer:

                                                              The change of tactics under Mark Hughes seemingly signals the end to the long ball/long throw game made famous under Pulis. This will have consequences for the goal tally of Peter Crouch. The lanky Englishman has always been superb in the air, but his touch has at times been suspect. This is why I will go for Jonathan Walters to cement the title he won last season. Although his tally was low (11), he was the main threat up front for the Potters, and I expect that to continue again this campaign.

Prediction:

                                                               As I said earlier, the appointment of Mark Hughes is, in my opinion, not a bad one for a club with the spending power of Stoke. However, with the Welshman attempting to change the style of the Stoke City team's play, I think that the job is a bit of poisoned chalice. The old way had seemingly stopped working by the end of last season, and with an overhaul so difficult to complete quickly, I fear for the survival of the Potters. I have a feeling that, after a good 6 years in the top flight, this season could see the end of Stoke's Premier League status.

Stoke City 2013/2014: 18th