Thursday 11 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Southampton

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
We're getting used to saying it when it comes to Southampton, but another surprisingly strong season for the Saints. Since coming back into the Premier League, the South Coast club have continued to outperform predictions, despite continuously losing their best players. However, once again last year, it was the performance of the manager that drew the most praise. Ronald Koeman, having added to his squad with the likes of centre back Virgil van Dijk, led the team to a 6th place finish, one place better than last year, and the highest placing since returning to the division.

Backroom setup
However, the adulation shown to Koeman by fans and pundits alike inevitably turned heads. At the end of last season, it became clear that Everton were head-hunting the Dutchman. While Southampton could not prevent him from leaving, they did at least manage to recoup £5m in compensation.

In his place came French veteran manager Claude Puel. Having spent his entire career in his home country with Monaco, Lille, Lyon and Nice, his lack of experience in the English game may be a blessing or a curse, and it will certainly be interesting to see how he stamps his authority on the team.

Pre-season
If pre-season is anything to go by, he has already made big steps with his current squad. Going unbeaten throughout their six matches, that includes key victories against PEC Zwolle (4-0), Twente  (2-1) and Athletic Bilbao (1-0). In particular, Charlie Austin and Shane Long have hit the ground running when it comes to finding the net, while defensively they have looked strong.

In their other three fixtures, they saw a 2-0 win over DC United's Under 23's, as well as a 1-0 win over Dutch side Groningen. In fact, the only match that prevented them maintaining a 100 per cent record was a 1-1 draw against Espanyol - a game that the Saints led for the vast majority. If this is anything to go by, Southampton are in great shape to start the season, and will look to maintain their momentum into their first match against Watford.

Squad and signings
Once again, it would appear that Southampton have lost some of their biggest name players, but history would suggest that this isn't the end of the world. The £61m recouped for Sadio Mane (Liverpool), Victor Wanyama (Tottenham) and Graziano Pelle (Shandong Luneng), making the latter the most-well paid sportsman on the planet, has enabled them to make a few additions, but they have yet to make a marquee signing.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg certainly has the potential to be a key player, with the ex-Bayern man already playing a role in pre-season, but the other signings of Nathan Redmond, Jeremy Pied and Alex McCarthy are hardly setting the world alight. With the funds they have, both from the television deal and the sales, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints active on deadline day - I wonder if Puel can borrow the Land Rover from Arry' for the big day?

Tactics
I'll admit, I'm not particularly familiar with the playing style of Claude Puel, so I can't honestly suggest a tactic that I expect to see from the Frenchman. However, the players that he has would dictate a quick pass and move game, utilising the wing-backs and looking to put Shane Long in behind at every available opportunity.

Predictions
I know we do this every year, but I expect this to be the season that the upward trajectory of the Saints end. Eventually, every team would miss their key players having sold the majority of them over the past three years, and while I expect them to steer well clear of relegation problems, I see them entering an area of mid-table mediocrity this season. The Europa League excursions will do them no favours, and will further deplete an already thin squad.

Final position: 12th

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