Thursday 11 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Middlesbrough

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
After a seven year absence from England's top flight, Middlesbrough secured a return by edging out Brighton on the final day of the Championship season in a winner takes all match. Thanks to their superior goal difference, the 1-1 draw against the Seagulls sent them up behind Burnley.

Backroom setup
Aitor Karanka retains his position at the helm of the club, and will be looking to consolidate their position back at the top table of English football. Unusually for a promoted side, there has been little drama surrounding the backroom, with no real suggestion that their coach is going to be snapped up by a rival.

Pre-season
This has enabled the Boro to focus entirely on their extensive pre-season campaign. Starting, as so many clubs did, with a brief stay in the UK, Middlesbrough headed out to Marbella for three games in the space of six days. Their UK tour was largely successful, winning 6-0 at York and 2-0 at Doncaster.

However, Marbella threw up a topsy-turvy set of results, with Boro losing to Real Betis 2-1 and drawing 2-2 with Alcorcon, both currently playing in Spain's second tier. Though they did finish off their trip to Europe with a 2-0 win over Egyptian side Al-Ahly, they had hardly been convincing throughout.

This inconsistency continued into the final fixtures, with a 3-1 win at relegated Aston Villa arguably the highlight of their pre-season, with goals from Alvaro Negredo, Jordan Rhodes and Viktor Fischer. However, subsequent goalless draws against both Udinese and Real Sociedad checked that momentum slightly, ending their pre-season on a bit of a flat note.

Squad and signings
Middlesbrough have arguably been the Del Boy of this season's transfer window, with the Teesside club looking to conduct the majority of their business in either the loan or free transfer market. However, you have to hand it to them, securing the signings of Champions League winning goalkeeper Victor Valdes, Brad Guzan, Bernardo Espinoza and Gaston Ramirez on frees, as well as free-scoring Alvaro Negredo on loan from Valencia.

In the biggest money move of the window, Atalanta midfielder Marten de Roon made a £12m switch, while Viktor Fischer swapped Amsterdam for Middlesbrough in a deal worth just shy of £4m.

Tactics
With the powerful Negredo expected to take his place as the lead striker, I'm expecting Boro to employ the flick-on to great effect, looking to use the pace of either Fischer or Downing in behind defences. Alternatively, the big Spaniard may choose to just be a battering ram, but either may well be extremely effective!

Defensively is where they may struggle, as I would expect Boro to see the vast minority of possession in most games. Here, a tight man-marking system must be employed, as even half a chance in this league usually results in a goal.

Predictions
With the addition of a number of Premier League quality players, including a couple who probably still deserve to be in Europe, I have the feeling that Middlesbrough will emulate the success seen by Watford last year. An upper second half of the table finish awaits as few teams will leave Teesside with maximum points.


Final position: 13th

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