Thursday 11 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Manchester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Despite a Champions League semi-final appearance, last season was ultimately one of disappointment for the Blues. A lighting fast start saw pundits blown away with the early form, but this quickly faded, leaving City floundering behind Leicester and challenging with their city rivals for the final Champions League spot, something only confirmed on the final day. A League Cup victory was scant consolation for the money invested, and the club's form following the announcement of Pep Guardiola's arrival will have concerned fans.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, in February 2016, Manuel Pellegrini made the announcement that Pep Guardiola, widely considered the greatest manager in the world, would be taking over at the Etihad in the summer. However, this had a dramatic impact on the club's form, with City falling from title contention to narrowly avoiding missing out on Champions League football. Guardiola's appointment was the end result of a long programme by City, which includes recent hirings of Barcelona' backroom staff, including Tiki Begiristain as Director of Football.

Pre-season
Guardiola has suffered a stop-start pre-season campaign, but the majority of their matches have been against clubs of the highest standard. City started with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Guardiola's old club Bayern Munich, before they embarked on their International Champions Cup campaign. After much debate over whether Guardiola would shake the hand of new Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho before their meeting, it all ended in an anti-climax as the match was abandoned due to bad weather.

However, Pep did manage to secure his first win with a 6-5 penalty shootout victory over Borussia Dortmund, following a 1-1 draw in normal time - a Sergio Aguero goal cancelled out by a last minute Christian Pulisic strike. Their final game was arguably their most disappointing, with a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal perhaps the most indicative of City's quality against their English rivals.

Squad and signings
After a slow start, City's activity has kicked into top gear in recent weeks, with seven signings to date. Youth has been a key focus for the club, with Spanish winger Nolito, signed from Celta Vigo for £13m, the only player over the age of 25. Ilkay Gundogan, the Dortmund central midfielder, became the first Guardiola signing for just £20m, while City made use of their links with Australian club Melbourne City to sign Aaron Mooy. With the only other signing, the young winger Aleksandr Zinchenko from Russian side Ufa, announced as we moved into August, the club has burst into life with a trio of signings in the space of four days. Winger Leroy Sane was signed from Schalke for £37m, while both Gabriel Jesus and Marlos Moreno joined from South America for a combined £31m.

The largest signing was, typically for City, English, with young centre back John Stones snared for an estimated £47.5m. While certainly an expensive purchase, much has been made of his likeness to past centre-back in Pep Guardiola's previous teams, including Gerard Pique - not faint praise indeed!

Despite the disappointment of last season, there have been relatively few outgoings from the club, despite many, including myself, predicting an exodus at the Blues. To date, only Martin Demichelis and Richard Wright have been released, as Guardiola seemingly looks to revive the fortunes of many of the current squad including Yaya Toure, Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas. While the omission of Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony and Eliaquim Mangala has led to speculation over their futures, little concrete has been discussed.

Tactics
As Fabian Delph has pointed out in interviews, Guardiola has already had a significant impact on the playing style of the squad, with an increased emphasis on keeping possession and moving the ball around quickly. With players of the quality of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne on the ball, it's not like he hasn't got the talent to apply this, but it will be more interesting to see how City do without the ball, as it is defensively where they have often been found wanting.

Predictions
With youth being the key focus for the Blues so far this year, I just get the feeling this may be one step too far for a title win this season. They'll likely run the eventual winners close, but may have to settle for second. Expect them to only get stronger and stronger over the next three years, as Guardiola looks to replicate the success he had at Barcelona.

Final position: 2nd

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