As someone who frequently places bets on the weekend's action, I shudder to think the odds that last weekend's achievement would have drawn at the start of the season. To score in three straight games is a run of good form for any striker, but to do it in 10 is nothing short of extraordinary.
And if that wasn't enough, Jamie Vardy has done it in a side hardly recognised as world-beaters. Ok, the fact that Leicester currently sit proudly atop the Premier League seems to undermine that argument somewhat. However, speaking of odds, I wonder what bookies would have laid on the Foxes topping the table after 12 games? My point is, few would have ever expected that the side that struggled to escape relegation last term would have found within their midst a true Premier League predator capable of this feat.
However, ever the cynic, I feel the need to dampen the enthusiasm of Leicester fans who will undoubtedly proclaim Jamie Vardy's goalscoring run the 'greatest of all time' - let's just hope they can do it in a more intelligent way than the current chant of 'Jamie Vardy's having a party'. Lyrical genius... And we wonder why the music industry is dumbing down!
Let's start by looking at the man whose record he could usurp if he nets against Manchester United next weekend: ironically enough, United hitman Ruud van Nistelrooy. Now, in order to gauge the achievements of the pair, and accurately compare them, we have to understand the circumstances under which they were done. I have already mentioned the fact that Vardy has completed this nine game run in a side hardly recognised as a league leader, while van Nistelrooy was part of the United side that bulldozed its way through everyone in the early 2000's. So, on the face of it, 1-0 Vardy, right?
Well, I wanted to delve a little deeper than that. It is also worthwhile considering the opponents that these goals came against. To score nine games in a row is impressive regardless, but scoring against eight of the top ten in the league is certainly more so than knocking in goals against the lesser sides.
When looking at van Nistelrooy's run, we see he scored 15 goals in his 10 games, with hat tricks against Fulham and Charlton, and a brace at home to Liverpool. In those games, he scored against the sides in 14th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 10th, 12th, 7th, 8th and 5th. If we were to average this out, it equates to 7th place - a pretty impressive feat for anyone. If we compare this with Jamie Vardy's recent form, we see quite a different story. His ten games have him scoring 12 goals, with braces against Arsenal and Southampton - ironically the two most difficult sides the Foxes have faced during this run. The teams he has scored against currently sit in 19th, 20th, 11th, 4th, 16th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 13th and 17th, giving Vardy an average of 13th place. I think this is emphatically 1-1.
There are a few more important factors to take into account. Firstly, it's worth noting that van Nistelrooy's run did come over two different seasons, with the last two games the start of the 2003/2004 season. I'm not sure if that removes a little of the gloss off his achievement or adds to it. On the one hand, it could have taken pressure off the Dutchman towards the end of the run, as he may not have remembered his strong form at the start of the new year. However, it could also be the case that it made it more difficult, as momentum and form plays a huge part in the continuing success, and any break in time could have an adverse effect on the mindset of the striker involved.
However, if this was going to be a negative, we should certainly bear in mind the fact that, including all competitions, Ruud van Nistelrooy actually went on a 12 game scoring streak in 2003. This was the previously mentioned eight Premier League games, in addition to Champions League goals, both home and away, against Real Madrid, and goals for Holland against the Czech Republic and Moldova. He therefore completed both a long term run based on momentum, and a run over the course of two seasons.
In comparison, if other competitions were included in Jamie Vardy's current run, the striker would only actually have managed a four game scoring streak, as Premier League games were punctuated by goalless appearances in the Capital One Cup and the England team. Is that really so impressive?
It certainly isn't when we compare it to the all-time greats, and longest scoring streaks. Josef Bican's incredible 19-game run for Slavia Prague has been going strong since 1939, only matched by Lionel Messi (who else) in 2013. Some argue that as Messi was then injured and never got the chance to continue the record, we will never know how far he could have gone, and some even count the two goals he scored immediately after his return as part of the record, but I don't buy it.
To put it in perspective, should we even be that overawed by the achievement of scoring in 10 straight? Below is the list of the 10 longest goal streaks in history, all of whom have gone significantly beyond the feat achieved in the Premier League:
Longest goalscoring runs in history:
19: Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona 2012–13)
19: Josef Bican (SK Slavia Praha 1939–40)
16: Gerd Müller (FC Bayern München 1969–70)
16: Teodor Peterek (Ruch Chorzów 1937–38)
15: Filip Johansson (IFK Göteborg 1924–25)
15: Tor Henning Hamre (FC Flora Tallinn 2003)
15: Fin Døssing (Dundee United FC 1964–65)
14: Fernando Gomes (FC Porto 1984–85)
13: Serge Masnaghetti (Valenciennes FC 1962–63)
13: Peter Dubovský (ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1991–92)
13: Tom Phillipson (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1926–27)
With this in mind, Jamie Vardy's run is the best moment of his career so far, and certainly warrants congratulations, but as with so many things, we have a tendency to get carried away by feats, particularly when completed by an Englishman. However, Vardy needs to go some to match the greatest ever, and I'd argue that he needs to consistently score against better opposition to be considered alongside Ruud van Nistelrooy as a top striker. Hang on, I'm sure I came to a similar conclusion about another overrated English striker...
In any case, while I hope I'm proven wrong, I do fully expect this run to come to an end against Manchester United this weekend. United have proven their ability to mark better players than Vardy out of the game, and I suspect the Foxes will find it much harder to score. He may still finish as top scorer this season, but at some point in the season, he will have a lean spell and it is always the mark of a good striker to see how he recovers from that.
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label City. Show all posts
Showing posts with label City. Show all posts
Saturday, 28 November 2015
Saturday, 12 September 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 2015 Window Top 10 Big Money Moves
And so, the summer chaos is over for another year. I'm not talking about the departure lounge of Manchester Airport, it is of course the transfer window. As part of my latest series, I wanted to review some of the biggest and best Premier League transactions this year, starting with the top 10 huge money moves.
It's been a record summer, with spending rising four per cent to £870m. As a result, we've got a strong top 10, with all of the deals highlighted in excess of £20m. With the new Sky TV deal, valued at a staggering £5bn, set to come into play next year, clubs have realised that they have money to play with, and as a result, are more willing to splash out the big bucks.
10. Pedro Rodriguez - Barcelona to Chelsea (£21m)
We kick off with Chelsea's big-name summer signing. Having struggled through their opening couple of games, claiming just one point, Jose Mourinho felt the time was right to make his move. Despite considerable reported interest from Manchester United, Chelsea met the buyout clause of Barcelona's Pedro, who had found himself less of a fixture at the Catalan club since the purchases of Neymar and Luis Suarez.
Cue merciless chants taunting United on the terraces, and rapid response from Louis van Gaal, claiming they never really wanted him - funny that! Meanwhile, the Spaniard, who has already won two Champions League titles and countless league crowns, has hit the ground running, with one goal and two assists in his first two games.
9. Heung-Min Son - Bayer Leverkusen to Tottenham Hotspur (£22m)
The first of our 'panic buys' to enter the list. Not unlike Chelsea, Spurs have had a rocky start to the new season, particularly struggling for goals. With Harry Kane having that typical 'second season syndrome', Tottenham swooped for Son, paying over the odds for a player that, while talented, has often struggled to be prolific. It remains to be seen whether this plays out well, but his debut will be eagerly anticipated by Spurs fans - but the last striker to cost in excess of £20m didn't really work out - Roberto Soldado.
8. Morgan Schneiderlin - Southampton to Manchester United (£24m)
Poor old Southampton. Their strong young side of a couple of years ago has been decimated, with Liverpool and Manchester United particularly guilty of stealing their players. This summer, it was the turn of Morgan Schneiderlin to depart, having come close to joining Spurs last year. At £24m, he seems extremely expensive, and he has hardly had the most auspicious start, frequently giving the ball away in the games at home to Tottenham and Newcastle. Nevertheless, it remains clear that Louis van Gaal considers him a ready-made replacement for the ageing Michael Carrick, and I expect to see the Dutchman continue to give him a chance to repay the outlay.
7. Nicolas Otamendi - Valencia to Manchester City (£28m upfront, will rise to £32m)
Another of Manchester United's failed transfer targets, and the first of Manchester City's big-money signings. Who would have thought that £28m would represent one of the club's cheaper purchases? Though a touch surprising, given the form of both Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala, Nicolas Otamendi adds further competition and strength in depth for City's European tilt, particularly given the typically ridiculous group the club has been given again.
It does have to be said, however, that one of the key reasons for the move to City is the transfer of Alvaro Negredo the other way last year. Expected cost in the region of £22m, Valencia have simply not got the money, so a part exchange was almost inevitable to come good on the money.
6. Roberto Firmino - Hoffenheim to Liverpool (£29m)
Liverpool have also been busy in the transfer window, financing the signing of Brazilian forward Roberto Firmino in June. The former Hoffenheim man has recently broken into the Brazil national team, popping up with some useful goals in recent friendlies, and seems to have the physical stature to cope with the rough and tumble of the Premier League. As with many of this year's moves, he looks overpriced by my estimation, and has failed to stamp his authority on the team in the opening weeks, but I do believe he adds something different to the Liverpool squad.
5. Memphis Depay - PSV Eindhoven to Manchester United (£31m)
The move finalised earlier than any other, Memphis Depay has had a considerable amount of time to gel with his new teammates, and you have to say it has worked. Of all of the United players so far this season, he has looked the most lively, and demonstrated his quality with his two-goal appearance at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League. Though he is often greedy and at times petulant, he is still young, and should learn quickly how to operate at a club the size of United. As a team, United has yet to hit top gear in the league, and you can be sure that Depay will be at the centre of activity once they do.
4. Christian Benteke - Aston Villa to Liverpool (£32.5m)
Funded by another big-money transfer (which if you don't already know about, I'll get to later, but more importantly, where have you been?!) Liverpool hit the buy-out clause in Christian Benteke's contract to secure his services. A proven goalscorer, Benteke has outperformed a relatively poor Aston Villa side over the last couple of years, and his suitors included a host of Europe's top teams. Though his opening few games for the Reds have been underwhelming, with one goal a relatively poor return at this stage, I am confident he will deliver, but it will be interesting to see how the Belgian deals with the enormous pressure that comes with the status of the club and the price tag over his head in the coming months.
3. Anthony Martial - AS Monaco to Manchester United (£36.6m - could rise to £58m)
Quite frankly, ridiculous. So left-field, they've disappeared off the pitch and out the stadium. I think you get my point. The very fact that Wayne Rooney had to ask who he was demonstrates the fact that this is not a £36.6m man, and his record is hardly justification either. Just eight goals in 31 Ligue 1 appearances last season does not strike of a prolific goalscorer, and with Rooney well and truly out of form, a goalscorer is exactly what United need. The fact that the deal was completed on deadline day reeks of a panic buy from Louis van Gaal following their defeat by Swansea, and with clauses including 25 international appearances and 25 goals over the next four seasons likely to cost the club another £15m, this could be an extremely expensive failure.
2. Raheem Sterling - Liverpool to Manchester City (£49m)
Arguably the most obvious move of the summer (although I would have put the sale of David de Gea to Real Madrid in this category!). Though a silly price, City had identified the player they required to progress their title tilt, and made their move early. With Sterling using every tactic in the book (and a few perhaps not in there!) to get his move, Liverpool handled the situation admirably, maintaining composure and ensuring they got the best deal for the current European Golden Boy. They certainly made City pay through the nose, but given the way the club has started this year, a lot of which is the injection of pace and width that Sterling provides, it does seem like a deal that may pay off for the Blues.
1. Kevin De Bruyne - VfL Wolfsburg to Manchester City (£54m)
And if City's start wasn't frightening enough for their rivals, they've brought in the man who created the most chances in any of Europe's top leagues last year. Though again for ridiculous money, Kevin de Bruyne is another exciting young prospect with proven pedigree, and will add to an already embarrassing forward line containing Silva, Aguero and Sterling. The Belgian has flourished in the Bundesliga, scoring 17 goals and assisting 29 more last season, and I have no doubt that he will do well in the Premier League. He's going to have to though, particularly for the eye-watering sum that was paid for him.
It's been a record summer, with spending rising four per cent to £870m. As a result, we've got a strong top 10, with all of the deals highlighted in excess of £20m. With the new Sky TV deal, valued at a staggering £5bn, set to come into play next year, clubs have realised that they have money to play with, and as a result, are more willing to splash out the big bucks.
10. Pedro Rodriguez - Barcelona to Chelsea (£21m)
We kick off with Chelsea's big-name summer signing. Having struggled through their opening couple of games, claiming just one point, Jose Mourinho felt the time was right to make his move. Despite considerable reported interest from Manchester United, Chelsea met the buyout clause of Barcelona's Pedro, who had found himself less of a fixture at the Catalan club since the purchases of Neymar and Luis Suarez.
Cue merciless chants taunting United on the terraces, and rapid response from Louis van Gaal, claiming they never really wanted him - funny that! Meanwhile, the Spaniard, who has already won two Champions League titles and countless league crowns, has hit the ground running, with one goal and two assists in his first two games.
9. Heung-Min Son - Bayer Leverkusen to Tottenham Hotspur (£22m)
The first of our 'panic buys' to enter the list. Not unlike Chelsea, Spurs have had a rocky start to the new season, particularly struggling for goals. With Harry Kane having that typical 'second season syndrome', Tottenham swooped for Son, paying over the odds for a player that, while talented, has often struggled to be prolific. It remains to be seen whether this plays out well, but his debut will be eagerly anticipated by Spurs fans - but the last striker to cost in excess of £20m didn't really work out - Roberto Soldado.
8. Morgan Schneiderlin - Southampton to Manchester United (£24m)
Poor old Southampton. Their strong young side of a couple of years ago has been decimated, with Liverpool and Manchester United particularly guilty of stealing their players. This summer, it was the turn of Morgan Schneiderlin to depart, having come close to joining Spurs last year. At £24m, he seems extremely expensive, and he has hardly had the most auspicious start, frequently giving the ball away in the games at home to Tottenham and Newcastle. Nevertheless, it remains clear that Louis van Gaal considers him a ready-made replacement for the ageing Michael Carrick, and I expect to see the Dutchman continue to give him a chance to repay the outlay.
7. Nicolas Otamendi - Valencia to Manchester City (£28m upfront, will rise to £32m)
Another of Manchester United's failed transfer targets, and the first of Manchester City's big-money signings. Who would have thought that £28m would represent one of the club's cheaper purchases? Though a touch surprising, given the form of both Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala, Nicolas Otamendi adds further competition and strength in depth for City's European tilt, particularly given the typically ridiculous group the club has been given again.
It does have to be said, however, that one of the key reasons for the move to City is the transfer of Alvaro Negredo the other way last year. Expected cost in the region of £22m, Valencia have simply not got the money, so a part exchange was almost inevitable to come good on the money.
6. Roberto Firmino - Hoffenheim to Liverpool (£29m)
Liverpool have also been busy in the transfer window, financing the signing of Brazilian forward Roberto Firmino in June. The former Hoffenheim man has recently broken into the Brazil national team, popping up with some useful goals in recent friendlies, and seems to have the physical stature to cope with the rough and tumble of the Premier League. As with many of this year's moves, he looks overpriced by my estimation, and has failed to stamp his authority on the team in the opening weeks, but I do believe he adds something different to the Liverpool squad.
5. Memphis Depay - PSV Eindhoven to Manchester United (£31m)
The move finalised earlier than any other, Memphis Depay has had a considerable amount of time to gel with his new teammates, and you have to say it has worked. Of all of the United players so far this season, he has looked the most lively, and demonstrated his quality with his two-goal appearance at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League. Though he is often greedy and at times petulant, he is still young, and should learn quickly how to operate at a club the size of United. As a team, United has yet to hit top gear in the league, and you can be sure that Depay will be at the centre of activity once they do.
4. Christian Benteke - Aston Villa to Liverpool (£32.5m)
Funded by another big-money transfer (which if you don't already know about, I'll get to later, but more importantly, where have you been?!) Liverpool hit the buy-out clause in Christian Benteke's contract to secure his services. A proven goalscorer, Benteke has outperformed a relatively poor Aston Villa side over the last couple of years, and his suitors included a host of Europe's top teams. Though his opening few games for the Reds have been underwhelming, with one goal a relatively poor return at this stage, I am confident he will deliver, but it will be interesting to see how the Belgian deals with the enormous pressure that comes with the status of the club and the price tag over his head in the coming months.
3. Anthony Martial - AS Monaco to Manchester United (£36.6m - could rise to £58m)
Quite frankly, ridiculous. So left-field, they've disappeared off the pitch and out the stadium. I think you get my point. The very fact that Wayne Rooney had to ask who he was demonstrates the fact that this is not a £36.6m man, and his record is hardly justification either. Just eight goals in 31 Ligue 1 appearances last season does not strike of a prolific goalscorer, and with Rooney well and truly out of form, a goalscorer is exactly what United need. The fact that the deal was completed on deadline day reeks of a panic buy from Louis van Gaal following their defeat by Swansea, and with clauses including 25 international appearances and 25 goals over the next four seasons likely to cost the club another £15m, this could be an extremely expensive failure.
2. Raheem Sterling - Liverpool to Manchester City (£49m)
Arguably the most obvious move of the summer (although I would have put the sale of David de Gea to Real Madrid in this category!). Though a silly price, City had identified the player they required to progress their title tilt, and made their move early. With Sterling using every tactic in the book (and a few perhaps not in there!) to get his move, Liverpool handled the situation admirably, maintaining composure and ensuring they got the best deal for the current European Golden Boy. They certainly made City pay through the nose, but given the way the club has started this year, a lot of which is the injection of pace and width that Sterling provides, it does seem like a deal that may pay off for the Blues.
1. Kevin De Bruyne - VfL Wolfsburg to Manchester City (£54m)
And if City's start wasn't frightening enough for their rivals, they've brought in the man who created the most chances in any of Europe's top leagues last year. Though again for ridiculous money, Kevin de Bruyne is another exciting young prospect with proven pedigree, and will add to an already embarrassing forward line containing Silva, Aguero and Sterling. The Belgian has flourished in the Bundesliga, scoring 17 goals and assisting 29 more last season, and I have no doubt that he will do well in the Premier League. He's going to have to though, particularly for the eye-watering sum that was paid for him.
Sunday, 19 July 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Moves That Shook The World
Every summer usually has a transfer that defines the period. However, some transfers transcend the boundaries of what is expected, or even what was previously thought possible, truly shaking the world of football. In this post, I'll outline my top 10, before looking at the mega-moves that we may see this August.
10. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (£59.6m, 2014)
The first in my list is the first in the enormous money moves that I've looked at, and makes the list primarily because of the sum paid. Seen as one of the world's best wingers, di Maria starred at the World Cup in Brazil, helping Argentina to the final. With Manchester United in a slump following a poor season, a statement of intent was required - step forward di Maria for an eye-watering sum.
9. Neymar - Santos to Barcelona (£50m (to date), 2013)
The most sought-after young talent in the world at the time, Neymar opted for the Catalans over a number of clubs, leaving his beloved Santos for a reported £50m. This transfer would have serious repercussions, however, with contract irregularities reported set to turn this into a world record move - an incredible £116m quoted as the total potential price.
8. Alan Shearer - Blackburn Rovers to Newcastle United (£15m, 1996)
While it's not really the fee that means that Alan Shearer's transfer makes my list, it's the context. In 1996, the English transfer record stood at a metre (by today's standards) £8.5m, paid by Liverpool to Nottingham Forest for striker Stan Collymore. However, having won the Premier League title with Blackburn, England's number 9 made the move to his hometown club, with the Geordie almost doubling that record overnight, and demonstrating to the world the spending power that English clubs have.
7. Sol Campbell - Tottenham Hotspur to Arsenal (Free, 2001)
Again, not a transfer I'm picking on fee, but on context. It's extremely rare to see players move directly from one club to its direct local rivals, particularly in the higher division where the rivalry is that little more intense. Sol Campbell, a key part of the Spurs team of the 1990s, made the move across North London to Arsenal, and in so doing, cemented his Spurs legacy as the ultimate 'Judas'.
6. Luis Suarez - Liverpool to Barcelona (£75m, 2014)
While the £75m price tag you may assume is the reason for this to be in this list, it's actually not the only explanation. What makes this move most surprising, particularly for the level of investment made, is that Suarez had received a three month ban from all footballing activity for his bite on Giorgio Chiellini just a matter of weeks earlier. Nevertheless, this did not deter Barcelona, and Suarez made his move last summer for the inflated price.
5. Carlos Tevez - Manchester United to Manchester City (£25.5m, 2009)
Arguably the most controversial move across a city in English footballing history, and one that spawned an ingenious marketing campaign 'Welcome to Manchester' (if of course, you're a Manchester City fan and therefore a true Mancunian). Carlos Tevez had enjoyed a semi-successful loan spell at Manchester United in 2007/2008, before making the move to the heavily spending Blues the following summer. The chants of praise were soon changed to something slightly more offensive and insulting over in Salford!
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - Manchester United to Real Madrid (£80m, 2009)
Perhaps a few of you will be surprised by the fact that I've only rated this in at number four in my list, but I'll explain my decision. Unlike a number of other big money transfers, where the player either doesn't really justify the price, or the move is a surprise in the first place, neither is the case in terms of Ronaldo. Having made it perfectly clear that he wanted to leave Manchester United, it was equally clear that he would command an enormous sum. Therefore, while it was a transfer that shook the world, it was perhaps not as much of a shock as others.
3. Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m, 2008)
Rewind to 2007. Manchester City had just narrowly avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Enter first Thaksin Shinawatra and then the Abu Dhabi United Group on transfer deadline day 2008. With manager Mark Hughes on the golf course, City needed to make a statement of intent. And boy, did they, stealing Real Madrid striker Robinho from under the noses of Chelsea for a British record £32.5m.
2. Luis Figo - Barcelona to Real Madrid (£37m, 2000)
If we thought Carlos Tevez's move from United to City was acrimonious, then we've clearly forgotten Luis Figo's decision to move across the Clasico divide, with Barcelona selling their star man to Real Madrid in the summer of 2000. Pure chaos ensued, with the Portuguese's first return to the Nou Camp seeing him so badly abused that he stopped taking corners. Pelted with bottles, lighters and even a pig's head, Figo showed incredible courage, but also, why it may not be a logical move between close rivals - especially in Spain!
1. Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£89m, 2013)
Though this move was not a considerable surprise, if you'd have asked Spurs fans the number it would have taken to prise Gareth Bale away from them, I think only the most hardcore of fans would have suggested a world record £90m. Compared to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the Welshman is nowhere, but the potential, and David Levy's notorious negotiation skills, meant that the fee inflated significantly.
With this summer window in full swing, are there any transfers that could shock the world of football enough to make this list? Raheem Sterling's £49m move to Manchester City certainly acts as a contender, but is there anything that looks like happening elsewhere?
The significant rumour mill surrounds Juventus wonder kid Paul Pogba. Both Manchester City and Barcelona have been linked with £60-70m moves for the Frenchman, which would certainly qualify as the defining move of this window. How likely this is is uncertain, but from a personal perspective, it would be great to see him in a blue shirt come September.
10. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (£59.6m, 2014)
The first in my list is the first in the enormous money moves that I've looked at, and makes the list primarily because of the sum paid. Seen as one of the world's best wingers, di Maria starred at the World Cup in Brazil, helping Argentina to the final. With Manchester United in a slump following a poor season, a statement of intent was required - step forward di Maria for an eye-watering sum.
9. Neymar - Santos to Barcelona (£50m (to date), 2013)
The most sought-after young talent in the world at the time, Neymar opted for the Catalans over a number of clubs, leaving his beloved Santos for a reported £50m. This transfer would have serious repercussions, however, with contract irregularities reported set to turn this into a world record move - an incredible £116m quoted as the total potential price.
8. Alan Shearer - Blackburn Rovers to Newcastle United (£15m, 1996)
While it's not really the fee that means that Alan Shearer's transfer makes my list, it's the context. In 1996, the English transfer record stood at a metre (by today's standards) £8.5m, paid by Liverpool to Nottingham Forest for striker Stan Collymore. However, having won the Premier League title with Blackburn, England's number 9 made the move to his hometown club, with the Geordie almost doubling that record overnight, and demonstrating to the world the spending power that English clubs have.
7. Sol Campbell - Tottenham Hotspur to Arsenal (Free, 2001)
Again, not a transfer I'm picking on fee, but on context. It's extremely rare to see players move directly from one club to its direct local rivals, particularly in the higher division where the rivalry is that little more intense. Sol Campbell, a key part of the Spurs team of the 1990s, made the move across North London to Arsenal, and in so doing, cemented his Spurs legacy as the ultimate 'Judas'.
6. Luis Suarez - Liverpool to Barcelona (£75m, 2014)
While the £75m price tag you may assume is the reason for this to be in this list, it's actually not the only explanation. What makes this move most surprising, particularly for the level of investment made, is that Suarez had received a three month ban from all footballing activity for his bite on Giorgio Chiellini just a matter of weeks earlier. Nevertheless, this did not deter Barcelona, and Suarez made his move last summer for the inflated price.
5. Carlos Tevez - Manchester United to Manchester City (£25.5m, 2009)
Arguably the most controversial move across a city in English footballing history, and one that spawned an ingenious marketing campaign 'Welcome to Manchester' (if of course, you're a Manchester City fan and therefore a true Mancunian). Carlos Tevez had enjoyed a semi-successful loan spell at Manchester United in 2007/2008, before making the move to the heavily spending Blues the following summer. The chants of praise were soon changed to something slightly more offensive and insulting over in Salford!
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - Manchester United to Real Madrid (£80m, 2009)
Perhaps a few of you will be surprised by the fact that I've only rated this in at number four in my list, but I'll explain my decision. Unlike a number of other big money transfers, where the player either doesn't really justify the price, or the move is a surprise in the first place, neither is the case in terms of Ronaldo. Having made it perfectly clear that he wanted to leave Manchester United, it was equally clear that he would command an enormous sum. Therefore, while it was a transfer that shook the world, it was perhaps not as much of a shock as others.
3. Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m, 2008)
Rewind to 2007. Manchester City had just narrowly avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Enter first Thaksin Shinawatra and then the Abu Dhabi United Group on transfer deadline day 2008. With manager Mark Hughes on the golf course, City needed to make a statement of intent. And boy, did they, stealing Real Madrid striker Robinho from under the noses of Chelsea for a British record £32.5m.
2. Luis Figo - Barcelona to Real Madrid (£37m, 2000)
If we thought Carlos Tevez's move from United to City was acrimonious, then we've clearly forgotten Luis Figo's decision to move across the Clasico divide, with Barcelona selling their star man to Real Madrid in the summer of 2000. Pure chaos ensued, with the Portuguese's first return to the Nou Camp seeing him so badly abused that he stopped taking corners. Pelted with bottles, lighters and even a pig's head, Figo showed incredible courage, but also, why it may not be a logical move between close rivals - especially in Spain!
1. Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£89m, 2013)
Though this move was not a considerable surprise, if you'd have asked Spurs fans the number it would have taken to prise Gareth Bale away from them, I think only the most hardcore of fans would have suggested a world record £90m. Compared to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the Welshman is nowhere, but the potential, and David Levy's notorious negotiation skills, meant that the fee inflated significantly.
With this summer window in full swing, are there any transfers that could shock the world of football enough to make this list? Raheem Sterling's £49m move to Manchester City certainly acts as a contender, but is there anything that looks like happening elsewhere?
The significant rumour mill surrounds Juventus wonder kid Paul Pogba. Both Manchester City and Barcelona have been linked with £60-70m moves for the Frenchman, which would certainly qualify as the defining move of this window. How likely this is is uncertain, but from a personal perspective, it would be great to see him in a blue shirt come September.
Sunday, 5 July 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: My Predictions
As the footballing merry-go-round begins to kick into gear for another year, English football clubs have never been in as strong a position to spend money. With the new £5bn football rights deal set to take effect from next year, clubs know that their revenues are going to be boosted come next summer. As a result, many can spend without fear of additional UEFA penalties thanks to the controversial Financial Fair Play regulations. With each of last season's top four expected to empty their bank accounts in the coming months, this summer is going to be interesting.
But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.
Arsenal
In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.
Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)
Aston Villa
In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)
Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)
Bournemouth
In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)
Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.
Crystal Palace
In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),
Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.
Chelsea
In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)
Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)
Everton
In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)
Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.
Leicester
In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)
Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.
Liverpool
In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)
Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).
Man City
In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)
Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!
Man Utd
In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)
Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).
Newcastle
In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).
Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.
Norwich
In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)
Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.
Southampton
In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)
Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.
Stoke
In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).
Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.
Sunderland
In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)
Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.
Swansea
In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)
Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.
Tottenham
In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).
Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.
Watford
In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)
Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.
West Brom
In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)
Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.
West Ham
In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)
Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.
Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m
Total Income: £266.3m
Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m
But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.
Arsenal
In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.
Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)
Aston Villa
In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)
Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)
Bournemouth
In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)
Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.
Crystal Palace
In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),
Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.
Chelsea
In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)
Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)
Everton
In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)
Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.
Leicester
In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)
Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.
Liverpool
In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)
Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).
Man City
In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)
Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!
Man Utd
In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)
Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).
Newcastle
In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).
Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.
Norwich
In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)
Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.
Southampton
In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)
Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.
Stoke
In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).
Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.
Sunderland
In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)
Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.
Swansea
In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)
Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.
Tottenham
In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).
Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.
Watford
In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)
Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.
West Brom
In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)
Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.
West Ham
In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)
Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.
Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m
Total Income: £266.3m
Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m
Sunday, 28 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Clash of The Cash (Title Race)
With the fixtures announced on Wednesday, that feeling of anticipation and excitement over the new season grows. The transfer window hasn't even opened yet, and people are already looking at the big derbies (with Aston Villa and West Brom particularly peeved that they didn't make the list) and making their predictions over the winners of the next Premier League title. Over the last couple of years, I've done blog posts looking at the fixtures, and using them to give an initial indication of who should be considered favourites. It's not particularly scientific, but it is interesting.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
Sunday, 26 April 2015
Do Foreign Owners Make Leeds United?
My dad has been a Leeds United fan from an early age, and has probably been against foreign ownership of football clubs since then. It would therefore be of great irritation to him to see his favourite club in its current predicament. After years under the ownership of the 'poisoned dwarf' (my dad's words, not mine) Ken Bates, the entrance of Massimo Cellino, though eccentric, was surely a step in the right direction, right? Well, just 12 months after his acquisition of the club, it seems that is wrong. A year of pandemonium and chaos has followed, seemingly reinforcing my dad's argument regarding foreign owners.
It's worth noting that this is not the only case of foreign owners causing a stir. This has been to varying levels, but some of the country's largest clubs have fallen foul of owners that prioritise the business over the football. Most high profile of these are the two most successful clubs in this country's history: Liverpool and Manchester United.
Chronologically, it was the reds from (not quite) Manchester that were the subject of the first takeover bid. Having been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 1990, Malcolm Glazer had built up his share of the company between 2003 and 2005, before announcing a formal takeover in the May of the latter year. In total, the acquisition cost around £800m, though this only tells half of the story.
Before the ink had dried on the deal, and before the supporters could get excited about potential financial investment, we worked out how the deal had been financed, and more worryingly, who was carrying the burden. All loans had been secured against the assets of the club, meaning that the financial stability of the club was put in serious danger. In addition, interest payments of up to £60m annually would be owed, piling more and more on top of the club. Like Cellino, Glazer seemed only interested in protecting his own investment, rather than the fortunes of the team and the fans.
Similarly, Liverpool struggled with new American owners. Tom Hicks and George Gillette, who both had histories with sports clubs in the States, decided to take a controlling stake in Liverpool at the beginning of 2007, valuing the business at £218.9m. In a turbulent three years, the pair fell so heavily out of favour due to a lack of incoming transfer activity and a failure to deliver the new stadium that they were called "asset strippers" in Parliament and we eventually willing to take a £144m loss on the club on its 2010 sale. Court cases and legal disputes have rumbled on since, so it seems unlikely that we have heard the end of this story yet.
However, while the heritage of these two clubs has enabled them to manage their losses and survive, there are some clubs that do not have the resources. The most obvious example of this is Portsmouth. A Premier League side, the club won the 2008 FA Cup to secure the unlikeliest of places in Europe for the following season. With new investment from Sulaiman al Fahim, it seemed as though Portsmouth would be in good hands to push on up the table. However, just five years later, the side would have a series of foreign owners, all of whom would receive similar "asset-stripper" descriptions as Hicks and Gillette, leaving the club in the lowest tier of league football and feeling lucky just to be in existence.
However, before I get accused of being xenophobic, there are foreign owners that have progressed their clubs. In recent years, new footballing superpowers have been created by overseas wealth, with Chelsea and Manchester City the most high profile instances.
Chelsea, following years of being the nearly men in terms of achieving Champions League football, were acquired in June 2003 by a relatively unknown oil tycoon, Roman Abramovich. The Russian shelled out hundreds of millions of pounds on players in the early years, bringing titles in successive years in 2005 and 2006 - the club's first in 50 years. Over the next eight years, the club has gone from strength to strength, winning a further one Premier League crown, while adding four FA Cups, three League Cups, a Europa League and the one Abramovich was after, the Champions League.
More recently, my club, Manchester City were thrust into the financial limelight. Following the turbulent reign of Thaksin Shinawatra, the Abu Dhabi United group was found to take the club forward, headed by Sheikh Mansoor. The enormous wealth of the group enabled the Blues to make the seismic transfer of Robinho on the final day of the 2009 summer transfer window, before letting the cash flow freely to acquire some of the most high profile players in the world. To date, this has resulted in two Premier League titles in three years, as well as an FA Cup and a League Cup, but European success has eluded them. As a result, it seems likely that their investors are in it for the long haul.
As well as this, English people can make just as appalling owners of football clubs. Take Mike Ashley for example. If ruining the ambitions of historic club wasn't enough, he's managed two! Having spent three years at university in Newcastle, I'm well aware of how important the club is to the city and how deep the desire for success is from the fans. Never before have I seen the mood of an entire city affected by the result on Saturday, and it is a shame to see the lifeless shell that this side has become under Mike Ashley's leadership. Making a profit is one thing, and with the FFP regulations in full swing, I understand the need to balance the books, but this business sense has to be married to a progress mentality. Sadly, this is something that the Geordies can quite rightly level at Ashley, and he seems unlikely to change this in the near future.
So it appears that the old locally owned football club system has well and truly gone. It's incredible to think that there was a time when Liverpool and Everton were both owned by the same family, who ran the clubs completely independently (and successfully I might add) during the 70s and 80s. Could you imagine those two clubs operating that way in the current system? Or any two clubs - not even those so closely linked? No. As football has become increasingly commercialised, particularly in the UK (for more details of this, check out my blog on the TV rights and English clubs' struggles in Europe), club owners are focusing their energies on making money from their ventures, and as a result, the day to day business is ever-more time consuming. Attempting to take on one club is difficult enough, so two would be near impossible.
So how do we ensure that the right people take over our historic clubs, meaning that assets are not stripped, or worse, the soul of the club is damaged?
Let's have a look at our current system - the 'Fit and Proper Person' test. Introduced in 2004 to prevent corrupt or unsuitable directors of football clubs, the test is performed on any individual that acquires in excess of 30 per cent of a club. In short, the following are considered 'disqualifying events' for owning a Premier League club:
However, after eleven years, and numerous examples of (in mine and my dad's opinions) 'unfit directors', we can certainly say that it has not been a rousing success. What is even more worrying is that unlike other legislation, it doesn't learn from its mistakes. I accept that nothing will be perfect the first time around, but I would expect much more than watching the same situations unfold time after time. Surely, the only way of preventing unfit owners is by tightening the regulations, placing them and their intentions for the club under scrutiny.
So, possible additions to the regulations? Setting out a five year plan for the club, which must be adhered to (as much as is humanly possible), a fan vote that, though it does not have the mandate to remove any owner directly, could cause the FA to place the owner on report. Any owner placed on this report is unable to purchase any further clubs in the future - in simple terms, one strike and you're out! Though these measures may seem excessive, it is perhaps the only way to prevent the likes of Glazer, Hicks, Gillette, Ashley and Cellino getting their way, and sucking the life from some of our most historic sporting institutions.
It's worth noting that this is not the only case of foreign owners causing a stir. This has been to varying levels, but some of the country's largest clubs have fallen foul of owners that prioritise the business over the football. Most high profile of these are the two most successful clubs in this country's history: Liverpool and Manchester United.
Chronologically, it was the reds from (not quite) Manchester that were the subject of the first takeover bid. Having been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 1990, Malcolm Glazer had built up his share of the company between 2003 and 2005, before announcing a formal takeover in the May of the latter year. In total, the acquisition cost around £800m, though this only tells half of the story.
Before the ink had dried on the deal, and before the supporters could get excited about potential financial investment, we worked out how the deal had been financed, and more worryingly, who was carrying the burden. All loans had been secured against the assets of the club, meaning that the financial stability of the club was put in serious danger. In addition, interest payments of up to £60m annually would be owed, piling more and more on top of the club. Like Cellino, Glazer seemed only interested in protecting his own investment, rather than the fortunes of the team and the fans.
Similarly, Liverpool struggled with new American owners. Tom Hicks and George Gillette, who both had histories with sports clubs in the States, decided to take a controlling stake in Liverpool at the beginning of 2007, valuing the business at £218.9m. In a turbulent three years, the pair fell so heavily out of favour due to a lack of incoming transfer activity and a failure to deliver the new stadium that they were called "asset strippers" in Parliament and we eventually willing to take a £144m loss on the club on its 2010 sale. Court cases and legal disputes have rumbled on since, so it seems unlikely that we have heard the end of this story yet.
However, while the heritage of these two clubs has enabled them to manage their losses and survive, there are some clubs that do not have the resources. The most obvious example of this is Portsmouth. A Premier League side, the club won the 2008 FA Cup to secure the unlikeliest of places in Europe for the following season. With new investment from Sulaiman al Fahim, it seemed as though Portsmouth would be in good hands to push on up the table. However, just five years later, the side would have a series of foreign owners, all of whom would receive similar "asset-stripper" descriptions as Hicks and Gillette, leaving the club in the lowest tier of league football and feeling lucky just to be in existence.
However, before I get accused of being xenophobic, there are foreign owners that have progressed their clubs. In recent years, new footballing superpowers have been created by overseas wealth, with Chelsea and Manchester City the most high profile instances.
Chelsea, following years of being the nearly men in terms of achieving Champions League football, were acquired in June 2003 by a relatively unknown oil tycoon, Roman Abramovich. The Russian shelled out hundreds of millions of pounds on players in the early years, bringing titles in successive years in 2005 and 2006 - the club's first in 50 years. Over the next eight years, the club has gone from strength to strength, winning a further one Premier League crown, while adding four FA Cups, three League Cups, a Europa League and the one Abramovich was after, the Champions League.
More recently, my club, Manchester City were thrust into the financial limelight. Following the turbulent reign of Thaksin Shinawatra, the Abu Dhabi United group was found to take the club forward, headed by Sheikh Mansoor. The enormous wealth of the group enabled the Blues to make the seismic transfer of Robinho on the final day of the 2009 summer transfer window, before letting the cash flow freely to acquire some of the most high profile players in the world. To date, this has resulted in two Premier League titles in three years, as well as an FA Cup and a League Cup, but European success has eluded them. As a result, it seems likely that their investors are in it for the long haul.
As well as this, English people can make just as appalling owners of football clubs. Take Mike Ashley for example. If ruining the ambitions of historic club wasn't enough, he's managed two! Having spent three years at university in Newcastle, I'm well aware of how important the club is to the city and how deep the desire for success is from the fans. Never before have I seen the mood of an entire city affected by the result on Saturday, and it is a shame to see the lifeless shell that this side has become under Mike Ashley's leadership. Making a profit is one thing, and with the FFP regulations in full swing, I understand the need to balance the books, but this business sense has to be married to a progress mentality. Sadly, this is something that the Geordies can quite rightly level at Ashley, and he seems unlikely to change this in the near future.
So it appears that the old locally owned football club system has well and truly gone. It's incredible to think that there was a time when Liverpool and Everton were both owned by the same family, who ran the clubs completely independently (and successfully I might add) during the 70s and 80s. Could you imagine those two clubs operating that way in the current system? Or any two clubs - not even those so closely linked? No. As football has become increasingly commercialised, particularly in the UK (for more details of this, check out my blog on the TV rights and English clubs' struggles in Europe), club owners are focusing their energies on making money from their ventures, and as a result, the day to day business is ever-more time consuming. Attempting to take on one club is difficult enough, so two would be near impossible.
So how do we ensure that the right people take over our historic clubs, meaning that assets are not stripped, or worse, the soul of the club is damaged?
Let's have a look at our current system - the 'Fit and Proper Person' test. Introduced in 2004 to prevent corrupt or unsuitable directors of football clubs, the test is performed on any individual that acquires in excess of 30 per cent of a club. In short, the following are considered 'disqualifying events' for owning a Premier League club:
- They have power or influence over another Football League club
- They become prohibited by law from becoming a director (and believe me, there are a lot of offences)
- They are filing for bankruptcy
- They have been a director of a club while it has suffered two or more unconnected events of insolvency
- They have been a director of two or more clubs of which, while they have been a director, has suffered an event of insolvency
However, after eleven years, and numerous examples of (in mine and my dad's opinions) 'unfit directors', we can certainly say that it has not been a rousing success. What is even more worrying is that unlike other legislation, it doesn't learn from its mistakes. I accept that nothing will be perfect the first time around, but I would expect much more than watching the same situations unfold time after time. Surely, the only way of preventing unfit owners is by tightening the regulations, placing them and their intentions for the club under scrutiny.
So, possible additions to the regulations? Setting out a five year plan for the club, which must be adhered to (as much as is humanly possible), a fan vote that, though it does not have the mandate to remove any owner directly, could cause the FA to place the owner on report. Any owner placed on this report is unable to purchase any further clubs in the future - in simple terms, one strike and you're out! Though these measures may seem excessive, it is perhaps the only way to prevent the likes of Glazer, Hicks, Gillette, Ashley and Cellino getting their way, and sucking the life from some of our most historic sporting institutions.
Sunday, 19 April 2015
Blue Move: They Won't Be Standing Alone
I'm getting the distinct feeling that success for Manchester City is cyclical at present, rather than consistent. Despite the positive stat of two titles in three seasons, the fact remains that each of their title defences have been woeful. And arguably, the situation that the side finds themselves in is worse than that under Roberto Mancini just two years ago, which ultimately saw the deposition of the Italian. Whereas Mancini finished second (albeit a distant second) to Manchester United in 2012/2013, and reached an FA Cup final (losing to Wigan), Manuel Pellegrini has struggled, slipping into a battle for Champions League qualification, while exiting both cup competitions early.
As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?
I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.
Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free
Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m
Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m
Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m
Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m
Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m
Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m
Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m
Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m
Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m
Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m
John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m
Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free
Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m
Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.
So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.
The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.
With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?
Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.
Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.
There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.
However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.
Strikers
With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.
Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?
Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m
Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero
I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.
As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?
I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.
Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free
Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m
Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m
Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m
Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m
Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m
Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m
Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m
Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m
Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m
Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m
John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m
Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free
Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m
Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.
So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.
The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.
With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?
Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.
Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.
There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.
However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.
Strikers
With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.
Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?
Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m
Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero
I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.
Friday, 3 April 2015
The FA's Response: Changing Attitudes?
It's almost like the FA read my last blog post on England. As I made my recommendation to start blooding the younger generation of English players, in order to maintain a more consistent approach in the future, the English governing body made its point. Greg Dyke, who has been a strong proponent of introducing further English quotas, has outlined his plan for the future of not only the Premier League, but the English national side.
If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.
So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:
Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.
There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?
With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?
So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:
With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.
Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?
However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.
Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.
But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!
Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.
This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?
In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.
The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.
If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.
So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:
| Club | Players | Home grown (%) |
| Arsenal | 8/23 | 35% |
| Aston Villa | 16/25 | 64% |
| Burnley | 18/24 | 75% |
| Chelsea | 3/20 | 15% |
| Crystal Palace | 15/25 | 60% |
| Everton | 8/25 | 32% |
| Hull City | 13/25 | 52% |
| Leicester City | 17/24 | 71% |
| Liverpool | 9/19 | 47% |
| Manchester City | 8/24 | 33% |
| Manchester United | 12/24 | 50% |
| Newcastle United | 9/25 | 36% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 19/25 | 76% |
| Southampton | 9/20 | 45% |
| Stoke City | 12/25 | 48% |
| Sunderland | 12/21 | 57% |
| Swansea City | 12/25 | 48% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6/23 | 26% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 10/23 | 43% |
| West Ham United | 14/24 | 58% |
| Total | 230/469 | 49% |
Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.
There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?
With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?
So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:
| Club | Players | Home grown (%) |
| Arsenal | 16/22 | 73% |
| Aston Villa | 13/18 | 72% |
| Burnley | 17/27 | 62% |
| Chelsea | 20/27 | 74% |
| Crystal Palace | 17/17 | 100% |
| Everton | 22/29 | 76% |
| Hull City | 32/33 | 97% |
| Leicester City | 15/21 | 71% |
| Liverpool | 9/16 | 56% |
| Manchester City | 14/29 | 48% |
| Manchester United | 24/28 | 86% |
| Newcastle United | 26/34 | 76% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 7/14 | 50% |
| Southampton | 15/19 | 79% |
| Stoke City | 14/20 | 70% |
| Sunderland | 22/30 | 73% |
| Swansea City | 24/30 | 80% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 16/22 | 73% |
| West Bromwich Albion | ||
| West Ham United | 16/24 | 67% |
| Total | 339/438 | 77% |
With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.
Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?
However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.
Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.
But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!
Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.
This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?
In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.
The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.
Sunday, 22 March 2015
The Premier League and Europe: A Subconscious Uncoupling?
And so, a devastating fortnight for English clubs in Europe draws to a close. For the second time in three years, we have no representative in the Champions League beyond the last 16. Even more worryingly, it's the fourth time in five seasons that no English side has made it to the quarters of the Europa League. And never before have both happened in conjunction. So what has gone wrong? How has a league extolled for its pace and power, ranked as one of the top two leagues in the world, deteriorated when it comes to the European competitions?
However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.
Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.
So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?
The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.
What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?
The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool, both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?
Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.
Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.
In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.
In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.
The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.
English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.
However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.
Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.
So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?
The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.
What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?
The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool, both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?
Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.
Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.
In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.
In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.
The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.
English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.
Saturday, 7 March 2015
One Man Team: How Much Of A Miss Was Aguero?
We all remember these words: 'Balotelli... Aguerooooooooooooo!' Martin Tyler's commentary of the famous final day of the 2011/2012 season has been immortalised over the last few years, but it's the goalscorer who wrote himself into City folklore. Since joining from Atletico Madrid for a club record £38m in July 2011, Aguero has been an integral cog in the City machine. The record Premier League goalscorer, eclipsing his countryman Carlos Tevez, Aguero has scored an impressive 69 goals in 110 City games.
As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.
This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?
Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.
But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.
On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?
Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.
While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.
But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:
Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)
As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?
Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.
As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.
This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?
Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.
But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.
On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?
Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.
While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.
But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:
Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)
As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?
Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.
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