Blue Move: They Won't Be Standing Alone

I'm getting the distinct feeling that success for Manchester City is cyclical at present, rather than consistent. Despite the positive stat of two titles in three seasons, the fact remains that each of their title defences have been woeful. And arguably, the situation that the side finds themselves in is worse than that under Roberto Mancini just two years ago, which ultimately saw the deposition of the Italian. Whereas Mancini finished second (albeit a distant second) to Manchester United in 2012/2013, and reached an FA Cup final (losing to Wigan), Manuel Pellegrini has struggled, slipping into a battle for Champions League qualification, while exiting both cup competitions early.

As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?

I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.

Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free

Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m

Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m

Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m

Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m

Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m

Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m

Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m

Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m

Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m

Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m

John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m

Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free

Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m

Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.

So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.

The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.

With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?

Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.

Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.

There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.

However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.

Strikers

With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.

Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?

Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m

Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero

I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.

Manchester City: New Man, Same Spending Plan

2012/2013: 2nd

Transfer(s) In: Fernandinho (Shakhtar Donetsk, £30 Million), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £15 Million), Alvaro Negredo (Sevilla, £20 Million), Stevan Jovetic (Fiorentina, £22 Million), Manuel Pellegrini (Malaga, Free), Martin Demichelis (Atletico Madrid, £4 Million)

Transfer(s) Out: Maicon (AS Roma, £3 Million), Carlos Tevez (Juventus, £12 Million), Kolo Toure (Liverpool, Free), Wayne Bridge, Roque Santa Cruz (Both Released), Roberto Mancini (Sacked), Scott Sinclair (West Bromwich Albion, Loan), Gareth Barry (Everton, Loan)

Transfers Review:

                                              Yet another season where Manchester City have spent big in the transfer market. After a season where they missed out on many of their targets (Hazard, van Persie), Manchester City ensured that they didn't miss out on their top targets this time around, securing the signatures of Fernandinho and Jesus Navas very early in the window for large fees. Fernandinho's transfer in particular was suggested as being for a highly inflated transfer fee, but with the spending power of City, £30 Million can be spent without thinking. However, with the new Financial Fair Play regulations, arguments have been raised that this is perhaps one of the last seasons where we see inflated transfer fees. I disagree, but it is hard to imagine how a football club can easily circumvent these new rules. If we compare their signings to who I thought they would sign in my season review post, we see that I did actually predict the signing of Jesus Navas, along with a replacement for Mario Balotelli.

                                                  They was one transfer target that City did miss out on this season. Edinson Cavani had been admired for a while by the City scouts, and his name repeatedly cropped up on the radar of the world's richest club. However, when Napoli asked for a fee of £55 Million for the striker, City decided that this was too much to pay for the Uruguayan, opting instead for the La Liga striker Alvaro Negredo, and the promising young Montenegran Stevan Jovetic from Fiorentina. This took their summer spending to £90 Million, and with Martin Demichelis being brought in as defensive cover, City decided that the £100 Million mark would not be broken.

                                                   In terms of outgoings, Manchester City have let several names go, the most high profile of which was long term wantaway striker Carlos Tevez. After the 'refusing to play' debacle in their title winning season, Tevez returned to the club last year with a better attitude. Having made his intentions not to sign a new contract clear, in order to get any money back for the Argentine, City had to sell him this summer. Juventus got the deal done very quickly, for a reported fee of £12 Million. Other first team departures include Maicon after a brief spell in Manchester, Kolo Toure, after his contract expired, and the failures Wayne Bridge and Roque Santa Cruz.

 Pre-Season:

                                                     Manchester City's pre-season got off to a poor start, with two consecutive defeats in their tour of South Africa. Though the team consisted mostly of youth players, it was hardly the start that Manuel Pellegrini needed for his new club. The first real taste of competitive football came at the Barclays Asia Trophy, where Manchester City were drawn to play South China in the semi-final. On a horrendous pitch, despite dominating the play, City only managed the one goal, scored by Edin Dzeko, taking them to the final. There they met Sunderland, where another Edin Dzeko goal inspired City to their first 'silverware' of their pre-season tour. After the success in Hong Kong, City moved back to Europe to take part in the Audi Cup. In the semi-final, they met AC Milan. In an incredible first half, City took a 5-0 lead after just half an hour, only to see the Rossoneri fight back to reduce the arrears to 2 by half time. A boring second half followed, meaning that City progressed to the final to face Bayern Munich.

                                                        The match against the current European champions, who had had a much longer preparation time, seemed the best test of City's European aspirations. It proved that City were close to the European champions, but still needing plenty of practice before they can realistically challenge, as they lost 2-1. They finished their pre-season tour on home soil, with a match at the Emirates to face Arsenal. Here, they suffered arguably their worst pre-season result going down 3-1. This suggests that City's spending has not necessarily improved their chemistry and playing style, but we will only know for sure after the first couple of months.

Key Players:

                                                        After a poor season by his own high standards, Vincent Kompany will need to be back to his best if City are going to reclaim the title this season. He proved during the 2011/2012 season that he is one of the best defender in the world. Dangerous from set pieces, as well as having superb anticipation and marking skills, the Manchester City captain is a leader both on and off the field and will need to inspire his teammates this campaign.

                                                         Of all the new signings, I think that the one that City most needed was Jesus Navas. I am not just saying that because I predicted that signing in my season review post, but because City had no wide alternative if they failed to steamroller a team through the middle. Now, they have a world class plan B, which Pellegrini may actually turn into plan A. Navas's prodigious pace and skill makes him a threat to all Premier League defences, and I am certain he will make himself a key player this season.

Key Fixture Dates:

22/09/2013: Manchester City vs Manchester United
27/10/2013: Chelsea vs Manchester City
23/11/2013: Manchester City vs Tottenham
14/12/2013: Manchester City vs Arsenal
29/01/2014: Tottenham vs Manchester City
01/02/2014: Manchester City vs Chelsea
01/03/2014: Manchester United vs Manchester City
29/03/2014: Arsenal vs Manchester City

Top Goalscorer:

                                                          After an unfortunate season with injuries, I think this will be the season where we see Sergio Aguero back to his best. The title winner missed a couple of months of their defence, which could have proved vital. His goal against Manchester United in April showed that his poaching instinct has not faded, and I am certain that he will challenge for the Golden Boot this time around. I expect at least 20 goals from the Argentine, with his pace and finishing ability being of critical importance for City.

Prediction:

                                                            Based on the relative strength of squads, I think few would doubt that Manchester City have the strongest set of individuals this season. However, as with last season, the best set of individuals does not mean the best team. Getting the new players to gel, along with fixing the problems from last campaign, and settling into the Premier League, means that Manuel Pellegrini's job will be considerably more tough than either of the other title contenders. However, 'The Engineer's' experience both in domestic and contintental competitions worldwide means that I feel he will leapfrog his city rivals, but will not do quite enough to clinch the title. Whether he keeps his job will depend on his European credentials.

Manchester City 2013/2014: 2nd