Blue Move: They Won't Be Standing Alone

I'm getting the distinct feeling that success for Manchester City is cyclical at present, rather than consistent. Despite the positive stat of two titles in three seasons, the fact remains that each of their title defences have been woeful. And arguably, the situation that the side finds themselves in is worse than that under Roberto Mancini just two years ago, which ultimately saw the deposition of the Italian. Whereas Mancini finished second (albeit a distant second) to Manchester United in 2012/2013, and reached an FA Cup final (losing to Wigan), Manuel Pellegrini has struggled, slipping into a battle for Champions League qualification, while exiting both cup competitions early.

As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?

I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.

Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free

Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m

Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m

Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m

Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m

Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m

Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m

Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m

Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m

Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m

Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m

John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m

Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free

Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m

Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.

So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.

The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.

With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?

Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.

Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.

There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.

However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.

Strikers

With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.

Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?

Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m

Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero

I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.

Half Time Report: Surprise Packages and the Return of an Old Nemesis?

In a series I'm going to call my Half Time Report, I'll look at the key trends we've seen so far this season, both in England and abroad. Let's start with the Premier League. Suffice it to say, it's been an interesting first half of the season. As predicted at the beginning, champions Manchester City and Jose Mourinho's rebuilt Chelsea are heavily involved in the race for the title, while both the Champions League places and the fight to avoid the drop are bitterly and closely contested. So, in the opening 19 games, what have been the key trends we have witnessed? What will we remember the first half of the 2014/15 season for?

A pair of surprise packages
Over recent years, we often see a team defy all the odds to fly up the table in the first half of the season - Wigan did it, Hull did it and even City did it once upon a time. However, never do I recall seeing two teams far exceed expectations. However, following the mass exodus at Southampton, they were expected to struggle considerably, with some even tipping them for relegation. But Ronald Koeman, like Mauricio Pochettino, and even Nigel Adkins before him, has taken the Saints far beyond the level expected of them. A number of exceptional signings, including Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle, had forced Southampton to the brink of the title race, before a dip in form leaves them JUST fourth at the end of 2014!

However, they are not the season's only surprise package. And, in my mind, West Ham's sudden incline in league positions is a far bigger surprise. Southampton have been incredibly impressive, but they have an almost entirely new squad. As I witnessed with Manchester City's incredible revival under Sven Goran Eriksson, the element of surprise can work in your favour for a while. However, to add just a handful of names to a safe mid-table side and fire yourself up the table is exceptional, and that is exactly what Sam Allardyce has produced at the Hammers. Both Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho look to be inspirational signings, while the huge improvement in form of Andy Carroll and Stuart Downing has been great to watch. Though I'm not sure I agree that their target should now be the top 4, it has been an incredible start to the season for the East London club, and they will be hoping they can continue that momentum for the remainder.

A surprising leniency for managers (until recently...)
Now, I may well just be so used to the revolving door policy at most football clubs today, but surely there's normally been about five managerial casualties by now? The fact that two (maybe three if you count Pardew seemingly about to switch to the vacant job at Palace) managers have only left their posts within the last week or so is surprising to me. However, I'm not going to be suggesting we are seeing a change in attitudes around football clubs - it's normally the case that once one leaves it's a mass exodus, which I expect around February time!

Nevertheless, the lack of constant conspiracy and rumour is only a good thing when it comes to football managers, as it only tends to distract from the most important thing: the game itself.

It's like no-one wants the final Champions League spot
At the beginning of the season, I had the battle for the top four down to any two of Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham. However, only one of these sides has had any consistency this season, with each of the other four having inexplicable results and severe downturns in form. Liverpool, following the form that saw them run Manchester City to the final day of the season for the title last year, have struggled to replace Luis Suarez's goals (although his disruptive presence in the dressing room is more than taken care of by Mario Balotelli!). Arsenal have been incredibly unfortunate with injuries, but have looked susceptible at the back, and have relied too heavily on Alexis Sanchez to either score or create a game-changing moment.

Everton and Spurs have both had the same problem - consistently inconsistent. Though Spurs have been getting continuously better throughout the season, they started appallingly - particularly at White Hart Lane. Similarly, Everton have had real dark spells, but their form has seemingly slipped from an initially reasonable beginning. The form players from last year like Lukaku and Barkley have yet to click into top gear, and as a result, the team has failed to hit the same heights.

With the arrival of West Ham and Southampton into the mix for the European spots this year, the battle for the prestigious 4th place promises to be an incredibly closely contested affair, and I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if the race went to the final day - perhaps between more than two sides!

The Return of the Sith
However, I have to finish with a Star Wars analogy. Following a year in the wilderness, taking time to rebuild and come back stronger, a new dark red force is emerging in the Premier League. Though not yet as strong as we have once seen them, they are threatening to return to their full potential in the near future. For those of you that didn't understand that, I am of course talking about Manchester United. Under the guidance of Louis van Gaal, the Red Devils started appallingly, registering their lowest Premier League tally of points for the opening 10 games. However, since then the club has gone on a run of nine Premier League games unbeaten (although some may argue slightly fortuitously against the likes of Southampton and Arsenal), pushing them back not only into the top four race, but on the cusp of the title chase.

However, I will suggest this, and it's something that football fans are notoriously bad at - don't run before you can walk. Be glad with where you are - 3rd place would represent an excellent season for van Gaal after the Moyes debacle last year. Having seemingly spent their way back into Europe's elite  for next year, it seems only a matter of time before United are back challenging for major honours. Until that moment, the rest of the Premier League can continue to watch their back four perform like Bambi on ice at times!

It's been an interesting opening half to the Premier League season, but with a number of interesting dynamics set to play out over the busy New Year period and beyond, 2015 should be an incredibly interesting time for Premier League football.

Louis Van Moyes: Has The 'Dutch Master' Improved Things?

What no difference a year makes... That's the saying isn't it? 12 months ago, David Moyes was bemoaning a fixture list that saw the club record its worst Premier League opening five games - the worst start since 1989/90. Berated, and quite rightly I might add, for the poor results he achieved in that time, but few would have expected that in just one year, that record would be not only in jeopardy, but broken. With hugely decorated and experienced manager Louis van Gaal, fresh off a remarkable third place finish for the Dutch national team at the World Cup, at the helm, it seemed Manchester United were in safe hands. The gamble with Moyes had not paid off, and now was time to resort to a more secure option.

But has van Gaal been the safe bet everyone assumed? After five fixtures of this season, Louis van Gaal's Manchester United were two points worse off than the team led by Moyes. More concerning for the new manager is the fact that when it comes to the fixture list, Moyes has a point. In the opening five fixtures of the ex-Everton manager's reign, United made difficult trips to Manchester City and Liverpool, while hosting Chelsea. If seven points seemed like scant reward from five Premier League matches, especially as defending champions, this season has been nothing short of a disaster. After defeats at home to Swansea and away at newly-promoted Leicester City, along with another disappointing 0-0 draw at Burnley, van Gaal's Manchester United ended up with just five points, and from a far easier set of games.

And that's not even starting to look at the transfer policies. While Moyes is hardly the Archangel Gabriel when it comes to transfer dealings, particularly on deadline day, panic buying Marouane Fellaini for £27m (£4m more than he could have got him for just a few months before), and failing to secure the signature of Ander Herrera after some shambolic goings on in Bilbao. However, it was clear that he never had the full backing of the United back room staff when it came to transfers, with chief executive Ed Woodward denying him the opportunity to splash the cash. However, that has not been a problem for van Gaal. Over £150m has gone out of the door this summer, with Angel di Maria and Luke Shaw accounting for the best part of £100m. While it is not fair to say they are failures just yet, only di Maria has made any kind of immediate impact, and defensively they look shocking.

But why is that? In fairness, part of that is beyond van Gaal's control. After their disappointing last season, three of United's regular back four left the club, with club captain Nemanja Vidic and ageing pair Patrice Evra and Rio Ferdinand opting to cut their losses. That kind of loss would shatter any club's confidence and performance, but I don't think that is entirely to blame for United's current predicament. Tactically, van Gaal and his players have looked inept at times so far this season. Unable to choose between 3, 4 or even 5 at the back, the lack of continuity has had devastating effects on communication in defence and understanding.

Having watched United a few times already this season, they look irresistible going forward at times, but when put under pressure defensively, they crumble. Without the presence of a strong leader at the back, no-one seems to want to take control. As a result, comical moments like numerous defenders going for the same ball, or marking the same man, have been prevalent this season. While some may be quick to blame the exuberance of youth, with the likes of Tyler Blackett and Paddy McNair making their first-team debuts, they have been some of the more consistent performers so far this year (Blackett's performance at Leicester excepted).

So how can United put this right? As much as pundits like Phil Neville suggest continued mega-spending, that will not do anything for the continuity and understanding of the team. Being a City fan, I have seen the impact of attempting to build a team of Galacticos overnight - it simply doesn't work quickly. City took three years to rebuild to form a side that can challenge for the top 4, so for United to expect that a continuing influx of quality players will inevitably lead to their re-coronation at the top of English football, they are very much mistaken. In my opinion, United's best route forward is to accept that this is not simply an isolated season of struggle, and to focus on honing the players they already have, with the addition of a couple of high-profile names a season. The players they have brought in this season are quality, but they need time to adjust.

So is it unfair that van Gaal looks like getting time where Moyes didn't? Absolutely. Had Moyes have made the same purchases that van Gaal has, and struggled in the same way, then the backlash would have been far more severe. The hashtag #MoyesOut was trending on Twitter from November onwards - will van Gaal have the same thing? I very much doubt it, though the joke #LouisvanMoyes has been made by Twitter users. However, it may well be that van Gaal can turn this round. In the meantime, van Gaal's track record and ability to pull big name signings may well prove enough to keep him in a job, regardless of the performances.

Louis van Moyes? The comparison will only please one man, and I think he made a trip to Turkey recently to see about the Galatasaray job.

Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?

As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.

Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.

Team	Manager Out (Games)	PPG	Manager In (Games)	PPG
Cardiff City	Malky Mackay (18)	0.94	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15)	0.8
Crystal Palace	Ian Holloway (8)	0.38	Tony Pulis (24)	1.63
Fulham	Martin Jol (13)	0.77	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77
Fulham	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77	Felix Magath (9)	1.11
Norwich City	Chris Hughton (32)	0.97	Neil Adams (3)	0
Swansea City	Michael Laudrup (24)	1	Garry Monk (11)	1.09
Sunderland	Paolo di Canio (5)	0.2	Gus Poyet (27)	1.04
Tottenham Hotspur	Andre Villas Boas (16)	1.69	Tim Sherwood (19)	1.89
West Bromwich Albion	Steve Clarke (16)	0.94	Pepe Mel (13)	0.92

From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.

So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:

Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)

As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.

So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.

Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.

The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.

It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.

As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.

Jumping the Gun? Manchester City Manager Roberto Mancini is Sacked

             Today’s announcement that Roberto Mancini has been relieved of his Manchester City managerial duties comes as no surprise to anyone who has been following sports news over the weekend, and especially after the events of Saturday evening. I must admit, when the news of his ‘imminent sacking’ hit the headlines on Saturday morning, I thought it could have been a ploy by Wigan and Manchester United fans to de-stabilise the team before the cup final. If it was, it worked, and in the most spectacular fashion. Not only did City lose the FA Cup final, they proceeded to sack Mancini two days later! That explanation now appears to be a tad too coincidental for me. When we consider the earlier, unexplained, meetings with Malaga officials, and the reluctance of the Manchester City board to deny the rumours after the news broke, Mancini’s sacking should come as no great surprise.

 

                However, the reasons behind Mancini’s sacking are not particularly usual. It was recently confirmed what I had previously considered to be true: that Mancini was not sacked for his lack of results. An FA Cup and a Premier League title is hardly a poor return for a side that had not seen the like for 3 decades previously. And yes, some fans may be saying, with the amount of money he had to spend it is unsurprising, but as I mentioned in the United title-winning blog, the trick is to gel players, not merely to buy them. The very fact that Mancini prevented Mario Balotelli from killing anyone during his tumultuous 3 years at City is impressive in itself! It is also worth noting that both Sven Goran Eriksson (under Thaksin Shinawatra’s ownership) and Mark Hughes (under both Shinawatra’s and Sheikh Mansoor’s ownership) had failed to provide any glimmer of a trophy whilst at City. His overall statistics also provide further ammunition for those claiming he was hard done by. In his 133 Premier League matches as City boss, he had a win percentage of 61.65%, a rate only bettered by Jose Mourinho, Sir Alex Ferguson and Carlo Ancelotti. A rather illustrious group to be involved in, I think most would agree. However, there is one area where he has seen to have failed: Europe. Whilst I would argue that I cannot recall a pair of groups harder than the ones City have faced in their two years in the competition (bearing in mind that City have certainly had at least one winner and one runner up in the last two years, no matter who the winner of the final), the results this season in the Champions League have been poor. To not get out of the group last year with 10 points was understandable but highly unfortunate, but the abject displays this season, especially against Ajax, have clearly played on the board’s collective minds. Success in Europe seems everything these days, and that is why it is unsurprising Mancini has gone.

 

                I do not believe that was the primary reason, however. Mancini has had a rather unfortunate habit of criticising board members, and even the owner himself, particularly this season. His comments immediately after the Wigan game may only have been the final nail in the coffin, as he has complained on more than one occasion of the board not being quick enough to secure his transfer targets. This is especially true of the missed signings of Robin van Persie and Eden Hazard last summer, both of whom were top of his summer shopping list. However, complaining about a man who has recently invested over a billion pounds in the squad, training grounds and the community surrounding Manchester City is probably ill-advised, especially when you consider that City were a top 10 team at best before his investment. You can hardly accuse the owner of not ‘putting his money where his mouth is’! Also, with regard to my title, I believe that Mancini has also been given plenty of time to achieve results by the owners, especially when comparing City to recently taken-over clubs like Chelsea (3 managers in 2 seasons) and Blackburn (4 managers in 1 season). Whilst, as a City fan, I believe his results are sufficient, even with the cup final aberration, to keep him in a job, his outspoken comments about the owner and the board is probably justification for his dismissal.

 

                As for his replacement, much has been said about current Malaga manager Manuel Pellegrini. His European pedigree is certainly something that will attract the Manchester City board, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to hear about his appointment at some point in the next few days. However, his recent comments claiming that he has no agreement with City and he has an agreement with Malaga not to talk to other clubs, whilst it makes Malaga look like the equivalent of a controlling spouse, certainly throws doubt onto the appointment. As I said with Ferguson’s retirement, it has come too late to secure the services of Pep Guardiola, and quite possibly too late to secure Jose Mourinho, as he appears certain to return to his spiritual home of Chelsea. Jurgen Klopp, the other man linked with United, certainly has sufficient European pedigree to attract the City board, with his Dortmund team in this season’s final. However, his recent comments that he will not be leaving Dortmund appear to close that particular door. It seems as though City have picked a rather inconvenient time to sack their manager, as most of the talent around Europe appear to have been snapped up. Other than those mentioned above, inexperienced but talented managers such as Roberto Martinez and Michael Laudrup are alternative options, though I believe they will be considered too inexperienced to take the helm. I still believe that one of these two will fill the recently vacant spot at Everton. As for City, Pellegrini looks the preferred option, but his recent comments suggest that a deal is far from being complete.

 

                Roberto Mancini, based solely on domestic results, can certainly consider himself highly unfortunate to have been sacked. His FA Cup victory in 2011, followed by the League title 12 months later, have led Mancini to be guaranteed a place in Manchester City folklore, and the fans will continue to love him and sing his name heartily at games for many months to come. Whether he will be so revered by fans only because he delivered City’s first trophies in decades, and therefore would not have been had City been more accustomed to winning, is impossible to tell. Based on Mancini’s European results, and his outspokenness, he should not be surprised to have been relieved of his duties. Whoever follows Mancini will have to deliver in both domestic and European competition, and quickly. Otherwise I fear that City may be scouring the job applications again fairly soon.