Euro 2016: My Predictions

In a competition to win £50m - see link here: https://50million.uk - I predicted every game of the Euro 2016 competition. While I won't make this blog boring enough by reciting each and every one, I am going to go through a few of the key things we may see in France this summer, as well as teams and individuals to watch.

Before we get to my predictions in terms of results, I wanted to highlight some of the trends we'll see. With a few changes to the rules and makeup of the Euros for this incarnation, I'd expect to see a number of new events, certainly more so than ever before:

• (Some) less technically sound matches - If you look at previous tournaments, the participants have usually been extremely high level, resulting in a number of quality matches. However, with the extension of the qualifiers to 24, there are a number of poorer nations that have made it in, and as a result, some of the matches hardly inspire excitement (see Hungary vs Iceland, Albania vs Romania etc)
• More emphasis on final group games - The extension of the qualifiers has also led to the introduction of a 'Round of 16' for the first time, meaning that in some groups, the top three will qualify. This will inevitably lead to more exciting final games, with most teams still capable of qualifying.
• Fewer shocks in group - A by-product of the above is the fact that we are unlikely to see shocks of the like of Spain exiting the World Cup at the group stage. Unless you lose all three of your matches, you are still likely to make it into the last 16 - any team can have an off day, but you would expect that in at least one match, the top nation would put in a good performance.
• Greater security - Amid a growing sense of nervousness around France about the threat of terrorism, there is almost certain to be a greater police presence on the streets than ever before. As we have seen already, England fans have not been deterred by this when looking to cause trouble, and further incidents will be dealt with quickly and efficiently.

Moving on to the reason we're all watching - the football - much of the talk ahead of the finals has been about the individuals likely to light up the tournament, with a wide range of names discussed. For me, I am most interested in the performance of the following big names and whether they can live up to the hype:

• Paul Pogba - With the rumour mill in overdrive on the subject of Europe's most sought after midfielder, it will be interesting to see whether the youngster can set the tournament alight. His passing and vision is among the best in the world, and I'd expect to see him excite the home fans over the coming weeks.
• Antoine Griezmann - Much like his French teammate, Griezmann has had an outstanding couple of seasons at Atletico Madrid, taking his team to the Champions League final. The little striker seems to thrive under pressure, and with the crowd in his corner, this is a great opportunity to demonstrate his skills.
• Robert Lewandowski - Tipped to cause a few upsets this time around, much of the success of Poland will rest on the shoulders of their talismanic number nine. The Bayern Munich man, who has made headlines across the world for his goalscoring exploits in the Bundesliga, is an excellent finisher, but has yet to really demonstrate his talents at a major tournament.
• Thomas Muller - The man I've picked to be the tournament's top scorer has had a less than outstanding domestic season at Bayern, but always seems to turn up on the international stage. This is especially likely to be true when you consider the lack of depth in the German front line - the fact they had to bring back Mario Gomez speaks volumes!
• Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo - I've lumped these three together because they are all roughly in the same position. World class talent in an otherwise mediocre side, the success of their nations almost entirely falls down to them. There are a number of sub-plots at work, most notably the expected transfer of Ibrahimovic to Manchester United, but this is the opportunity to show just how much influence they have on the national stage.

In addition to the bona fide superstars, there will be a number of youngsters hoping to break into that category this tournament, whether that's to put themselves in the shop window for the domestic campaign, or just to raise their profiles within the game. Here's my list of those I expect to see improve their stature at the Euros:

• Kingsley Coman - After an excellent breakthrough season at Bayern Munich, the young Frenchman returns to Juventus uncertain over his future. Having also broken into the national team, Coman needs a strong tournament if he wants to solidify his place in his club side, and perhaps convince the Germans to part with some cash to keep him.
• Leroy Sane - Another youngster looking to make a big money move, Leroy Sane has been linked with both the Manchester clubs this summer, and I expect him to make a statement at these finals if he gets the chance to play. With the Germans' relative lack of firing power, Sane may be the perfect player to come off the bench and change the momentum if things aren't going their way.
• Renato Sanchez - Having recently made a big money move to Bayern Munich, the Portuguese midfielder has a bit more freedom to play than some of his counterparts. However, with big money comes big responsibility, and the eyes of the world will be on the youngster to perform this summer.
• David Alaba - Widely considered one of the best left backs in the world, the Bayern man has not yet had the opportunity to grace the international stage properly. He will get his chance this tournament, and for the sake of my work sweepstake, I hope he takes it!
• Kevin De Bruyne - Probably Manchester City's best player of the season, despite a six week layoff with knee problems, the Belgian is part of the golden generation tipped for greatness. With outstanding vision and a laser eye shot, I think we'll see the 23 year old somewhere on either the goalscoring or assists chart come the end of the summer.

So, moving on to the groups themselves, as I mentioned I made predictions before the kick-off of the tournament, with every game planned. Should every one of my predictions come off, I'll be a very rich man, but this is what each group will look like:

• Group A - France, Switzerland, Romania, Albania
• Group B - England, Wales, Russia, Slovakia
• Group C - Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland
• Group D - Spain, Croatia, Turkey, Czech Republic
• Group E - Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Republic of Ireland
• Group F - Portugal, Iceland, Austria, Hungary

I'll do a further prediction post once the groups have been decided, but for now, I'll just pick my winner, as well as highlighting where I think England will get to in the tournament.

For me, if you look at the collective squads, Germany, Spain and France are all up there, and home advantage will certainly help the French. However, in this season of surprises, I'm going to go with the outside bet of Belgium to lift the trophy. Having gathered experience of a major tournament at the World Cup in 2014, the team is better prepared to tackle the top table, and with holes in each of the other three teams, I think we'll see the Belgians come good. Expect the midfield players like Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Radja Nainggolan to play a big role in any success.

Far from many of the pundit approaches of 'England are going to win it!' (cue group stage exit), I'm much more of a realist when it comes to the Three Lions. With a young team, we do have talent, but that lack of experience and a loyalty to overrated and past it players (Wayne Rooney) means that we're not going to reach the potential this time around. A quarter final appearance is what I have predicted, before the inevitable defeat on penalties!

What do you see happening over the next four weeks?

Bitesize Rants #3: Rival Relegation

I felt it was strange that the cheers on Wearside were louder for Newcastle’s demise than the fact that they had managed to secure survival.

As a Manchester City fan for as long as I can remember, I can certainly admit to a bit of schaedenfreude when it comes to the team from Salford – I have certainly enjoyed them being knocked off their pedestal over the last five years or so as the blues have made their meteoric rise.

This feeling of satisfaction comes from a generation of oppression and domination by the red half of the city. My memories of the competition between the two growing up was interspersed between regular relegations for my side, and when they did take to the pitch together, all too often there was only going to be one outcome. Needless to say, it made my school days at times difficult as I tried to defend myself from the merciless mickey-taking!

However, as City have embarked on a revolutionary journey in recent years, the balance has shifted, and until recently, had been on an eight match winning streak against United. In the most recent games between the pair, they have established an extremely healthy competition, with both trading victories and creating interesting and balanced matches. As a result, while I’d never actively wish success on them, I think I’d miss the competition and local intrigue created if they were relegated.

That’s why I don’t understand it in the rivalry between Newcastle and Sunderland. Having lived in the North East for three years, I experienced the strength of feeling between the two cities, and the rivalry on the pitch. However, unlike the city of Manchester derby, there has been no one side that has historically dominated in their rivalry, never mind English football, and therefore fans cannot point to years of humiliation and oppression for their reason behind wishing the other was relegated.

In my eyes, no derby means less excitement for the rest of the season, so while Sunderland fans can celebrate the relegation of the Magpies for the moment, I’m sure even the most hardcore of fans will find next year more boring as a result.

Bitesize Rants #2: Five England Players That Should Never Have Made The Plane

As an England fan, I’m well aware of the fact that we don’t generate many quality players. And even when we do, we still conspire to make stupid selection decisions instead! In this rant, I wanted to outline my top five England players that should never have been taken to a World Cup or European Championship.

1. Theo Walcott – World Cup 2006 (Germany)

In a team seen as the ‘Golden Generation’ of English football, we had a shot at World Cup glory a decade ago. However, for some reason, Sven Goran Eriksson chose to take a risk on 17 year-old Theo Walcott. After five straight games on the bench, I think it’s safe to say it didn’t really work.

2. Emile Heskey – World Cup 2010 (Brazil)

It’s Emile Heskey – need I say more? What is perhaps more worrying than the fact Fabio Capello took the English version of Shrek’s best friend is that he played him, including in the crunch last 16 match against Germany! And you wonder why we lost 4-1?

3. Ledley King – World Cup 2010 (Brazil)

It’s little surprise that England didn’t progress very far in 2010 when you look at some of the bizarre decisions made by Capello. Famed for his glass knees, it was well known that Ledley King couldn’t train more than a couple of times a week without breaking down. So it came as little surprise that after just 45 minutes of the first game, he was ruled out of the rest of the tournament with a leg injury.

4. Stuart Downing – Euro 2012 (Poland/Ukraine)

Sorry for getting patronising, but playing as an attacking midfielder, you are judged on your ability to either set up or score goals. After a big money move to Liverpool in the summer of 2011, the England made 36 league appearances, assisting and scoring a sum total of 0 goals. That’s the form that gets you a call-up to a major tournament.

5. Marcus Rashford – Euro 2016 (France)?

Much like the Theo Walcott selection, this is far too much too soon, and my instant reaction was – would he have been considered if he had the same record playing for Watford? No. He is a potential future star, but he is taking the place of someone who deserves it more at the minute – for example, what does Jermain Defoe have to do to get a call up?!

Bitesize Rants #1: The Respect Campaign and Football Hooliganism

In my day job (I know, can you believe that being a keyboard warrior on inconsequential topics isn't a full-time role?!), I was recently given the task of being more succinct. As some of you may have noticed, I have a tendency to use 10 words when one will do. So, I thought I'd challenge myself in a new segment I've called 'Bitesize Rants'. The premise is simple - the same level of anger and outrage, neatly fit into just 400 words.

The attack made on Manchester United’s team bus before their crucial must win game against West Ham highlights something that we’ve known for some time – football hooliganism is far from dead.

This is not my forum for attacking West Ham fans, as I want to focus on the clearly dramatic impact that the much discussed Respect campaign has had.

As a child watching football, I was all too familiar with the sight of players surrounding and berating the referee, with Roy Keane and Patrick Vieira sticking in my memory as the worst examples. As a teenager, I experienced this first-hand from parents of under-11s games, with some of the abuse received frankly shocking. To combat this, and the continual threat of off-field violence, the FA introduced the Respect campaign, an umbrella for anti-racism and pro-fairness in football. This was also designed to paint football to kids as a friendly and respectful sport, and give them role models they can look up to.

Has it made a difference? Clearly not as much as they’d hope, if Tuesday’s events are anything to go by. It’s certainly true that referees are not as bombarded by people after every decision, but the abuse from both the players and the fans continues to be prevalent at every level. Just read Wayne Rooney’s lips when the camera pans to him, and you’ll learn some new vocabulary you didn’t want! It also sets a worrying double standard, as some offences are punished and others simply aren’t!

It certainly doesn’t help that footballers don’t paint themselves in a good and respectful light as role models for kids. For every Vincent Kompany there is a Joey Barton, and every Claudio Ranieri has a Neil Warnock. The very fact that proven racists Jamie Vardy, Luis Suarez and John Terry are so revered among sections of football fans is alarming, and highlights the scale of the problem remaining.

So while West Ham have reacted quickly to the whole bus incident, the events should act as a warning shot across the bows of the FA. The Respect campaign is not hard-hitting enough, and for the sake of thousands of Sunday League referees across the country, football’s governing body needs to have a rethink. Try coming down hard on every type of disrespect, and not set a loophole for poor role models by letting some players get away with it.

Stranger Than Fiction? Ten Life Lessons From This Season

As followers of my blog will have noticed, I have been more than a little absent over the last 12 to 18 months. There are a number of reasons for this, but during this time, I have learnt a lot about myself, the world and some of the people in it. As a result, I thought I'd share some of my revelations over the past year or so. However, as I don't run a lifestyle blog, the only way I could make it relevant is by applying principles I have seen in this season's Premier League.

So, here are my 10 (loosely related) life lessons from this season:

1. Things don't always turn out as you expect

If this isn't backed up by goings on in this season's Premier League, I don't know what is. Ahead of the start of the the season, it was expected to be business as usual for the Premier League. Chelsea, such dominant champions just a few short months ago, were odds on favourites to retain their title with the seemingly unflappable and unbeatable Jose Mourinho at the helm. Similarly, Manchester City were looking resurgent, with nearly £200m spent in the summer window on the likes of De Bruyne and Sterling.

However, nine months on, and it is neither of these giants, nor Arsenal, Tottenham or Manchester United proudly atop the Premier League, but little old Leicester City. The fact that this was 5,000 to 1 at the start of the season (higher odds than the Loch Ness Monster being discovered!) demonstrates the point above, creating a fairytale story for the men from the Midlands.

2. It can be easy to get caught in a negative spiral

If you're anything like me, you'll identify with this one. It doesn't matter how well things seem to be going, you're always able to conspire to ruin it. As I outlined in a recent post on my motivation for my London Marathon run, I've done this to significant cost in my personal life, and has led me to a situation I never thought I'd find myself in.

In footballing terms, there is no doubt that this applies perfectly to Crystal Palace this season. Having started so well, with the likes of Yohan Cabaye and Bakary Sako in strong goalscoring form, they looked on course to challenge for at least their best Premier League finish ever. However, after a second half of the season to forget, they found themselves scrambling against relegation in the last few weeks of the season. Getting out of that cycle is difficult, and can often seem impossible at times.

3. Money doesn't always solve the problem

I've discovered this one more recently - I've never had much spare money, so I can't honestly say that this has been an issue for me in the past. However, over the last 18 months, I'm not ashamed to say that I've attempted (unsuccessfully) to make certain things in my life better using money. Safe to say, I've learnt that money can't buy you happiness - finding that seems far more difficult!

This is certainly something that has parallels in Premier League football. In particular, Manchester City's defensive issues were something that they have increasingly thrown money at in recent years, with over £100m spent since 2010 on a succession of centre backs - Joleon Lescott, Kolo Toure, Jerome Boating, Stefan Savic, Matija Nastasic, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala and most recently Nicolas Otamendi. Has their defensive record got any better? Not if this season is anything to go by!

4. People can surprise you (and not always in a good way!)

From a personal perspective, there is nothing unusual about this point. My last couple of years have been filled with examples of people that have surprised me with their understanding or interest. However, even those you feel you know well can surprise you - and sometimes you end up on the wrong side. I've also found myself in situations where I didn't know which way was up, with certainly no idea about where I stood.

Again, in a season full of shocks, there have been individuals that have stood out from the crowd, and I'm going to be a bit more controversial here. For me, the epitome of a positive surprise from a player has been the performances of either N'Golo Kante or Riyad Mahrez, both who have consistently shone, either through hard work or moments of magic.

However, despite all the plaudits received, I'd argue that a player that has surprised both in a good and bad way is Jamie Vardy. For all of his goalscoring heroics, for every bit of industry and every yard won for his side, just one event comes to my mind. As I said to my family on the day that he broke the consecutive goals record earlier in the season - 'it's amazing how scoring in 11 straight matches will make people forget you're a racist.' Great message for the kids, that. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what you say in casinos or whether you act like a first class chav, as long as you can kick a ball, it's all ok.

5. Hope can be the worst human emotion

During the last year or so, one phrase has stuck with me. I can't remember who it was that said it, in case anyone thinks I'm trying to plagiarise, but it certainly appears apt to me. It is, quite simply, 'without hope, there can be no true despair'. No matter how painful the initial event is, it is made that much worse by hoping unsuccessfully for something better, or for things to be fixed, particularly if you are given continued hope that this may be possible.

Now, as well as this applies to my personal life over the last 12 months, it also applies just as well to the history of my club, Manchester City. Though admittedly less so recently, I grew up in a time when City flattered to deceive, and would always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I have therefore become accustomed to hoping for much and receiving little, and to be perfectly honest, I'm confident that it's made me the realist I am today! In fact, I'm still waiting for them to screw the current situation up - I'm convinced it's just an extremely long con!

6. Don't just let yourself get battered

My belief that is order to be truly happy, you have to let yourself be vulnerable and open. However, this does leave you open to being hurt - and badly. Take a boxing match, for example. You put a guard up and let someone tee off on you. Hurts, doesn't it? However, lower your guard and do the same thing. Tell me how you feel when you wake up attached to an IV. In that situation, it is all too easy to allow yourself to become the victim, and be battered and bruised. And I'm no expert in this, but somehow, you need to keep picking yourself up off the canvas and moving forward until someone physically stops you.

In footballing terms, that best applies to Aston Villa this season - and by that I mean they have dropped their hands and been smashed repeatedly. Their seeming disregard for both the shirt and their fans has led to one of the worst seasons in Premier League history, and run-ins for the likes of Joleon Lescott and Gabby Agbonlahor with the club hierarchy and fans. Such has been the disintigration of the once great club, that the board members that were brought in to restructure it and make it prepared for life in the Championship gave it up. Not exactly a promising sign is it?

7. Rebuilding things takes time, and you need to be patient

Now this is a difficult one, especially if you're like me. I'm extremely impatient when it comes to wanting results, which is why my love-hate relationship with the gym is a little more hate than it is for most normal people. Whether you've suffered a set-back, had your confidence destroyed or your world rocked, it's perfectly normal for things to take a long time to heal and get better. The trick is to give yourself that time - easier said than done, I admit.

Message to all Liverpool (and to a lesser extent cockneys, I mean, Man United fans) this footballing metaphor applies to you! As much as you go on about history, it really means nothing when it comes to the current day, and time to face facts, your teams aren't as good as they once were. Stop treating managers by frankly unrealistic standards, and support your team. Instead of complaining about Brendan Rodgers or Louis van Gaal, you need to accept that you're going through a difficult transition period, and things will take time. Be patient.

8. Sometimes you have to rely on others (results)

Ok, so the grammar isn't great, but you get what I'm saying! This kind of links to number five, but this is a bit harder. Where others can surprise you, having the ability to talk to and rely on others is a whole new level of trust, and one that I can certainly admit to some trouble with.

As the headline suggests, this one was custom made to fit to the footballing metaphor. With a week of football left in the season, we saw a rollercoaster ride for the final Champions League spot between the two Manchester clubs. After City's 2-2 draw with Arsenal on the Sunday, United had all the momentum, just two points behind City with a game in hand. However, a 3-2 defeat by West Ham in the Hammers final game at the Boleyn Ground saw the ball put back into City's court for the final day. Despite a bit of drama at Old Trafford, with a suspect package discovered at the Stretford End, City did their usual trick (the minimum required!) to finish with a spot in the Champions League for next season.

9. Momentum can be powerful, and take things one step at a time

Once you turn a corner, you can rely on a powerful force: momentum. When you've proven that you can do something, it makes it that much easier to continue to do it. Even in the darkest moments, the little things become important, and gives you a platform to continue onwards. In these moments, I have learnt it is incredibly important to try and isolate individual tasks and defeat them as they arise. Again, as I mentioned earlier, my lack of patience holds me back here, and there have been more than a few times where I have wanted to give up (and have come pretty close) in the past 18 months, but a combination of things have kept me going, of which momentum is certainly one.

Here, Leicester again play a key role. For every doubter and every nay-sayer, it only required the group of player and their manager to come out and say 'we're not thinking about the title, we've only got eyes for [insert team name here] next week.' And lo and behold, that following week all too often resulted in a favourable scoreline for the Foxes. While this explanation may undermine some of the exceptional individual performances throughout the season, there can be no doubt that momentum inevitably plays a considerable role in any championship season, none more so than the one seen by Leicester this week.

10. You can achieve more than you thought possible if you push yourself

This has been the biggest thing I have discovered over the past 12 months, without a shadow of a doubt. It doesn't matter how badly you're hurt, or how strong the urge is to give up, you can still surprise yourself. After a tough two years, I'm still not OK, or anything close, but I have a few things I can point to that I can be proud of. Take just a few weeks ago as a prime example - after six months of training, and a lot of willpower, I ran the 2016 London Marathon in 4hr 34 minutes. Something I'd never have been capable of or willing to do at any other time in my life, but I set myself a goal and achieved it.

As with so many of these points, Leicester's approach to the disbelief of the world highlights this from a Premier League perspective, and demonstrates the strength of each of the players involved. However, where their goal can be firmly set on retaining their hard-fought title, I am now looking for my next challenge, safe in the knowledge that more is possible than I imagined.

So if you've had a hard time recently, or are looking to set yourself a few targets, I guess what I'm saying is watch the football - there are enough lessons to be learnt about yourself to keep you going for a while!