After a frankly appalling start to the Bundesliga season, there were many that were secretly tipping Borussia Dortmund for the drop this year. I was not one of them, but we'll get to that later. Having lost 10 of the opening 17 games in the league, Dortmund entered the winter break heavily entrenched in a relegation dog-fight. However, despite a home defeat to high flying Augsburg immediately after the break, the BVB have fought back, winning impressively away at Freiburg and at home to Mainz in their last two outings - just the second time Dortmund have won back to back games in the league this season.
It's important to put this collapse into perspective. Just four years ago, Dortmund won the first of two Bundesliga titles, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels and Mario Gotze playing integral roles. It's not even like there has been an obvious decline since, with the BVB reaching their first Champions League final in 2013, seeing off the likes of Real Madrid along the way, and finishing emphatic runners-up to Bayern Munich in the two seasons since their last title wins. To see them in the relegation zone come Christmas then was a considerable shock, and led to significant head-scratching over the poor performances.
As I mentioned at the start, tongues were even wagging to suggest the imminent relegation of the previous title winners, particularly due to the fact that they could seem to buy a win at home. This was most evident in October, when Dortmund failed to take a single point from their five games, including demoralising defeats at home to relegation rivals Hamburg and Hannover. The statistics for the first half of the season were astonishing for a team of their standard. Just four wins. Just 18 goals. And just 15 points. But why were they so bad?
Much has been said about Dortmund's unfortunate injury list, and it's certainly true that they have not had the luck of the green. At one time or another, they have been without Roman Weidenfeller, Lukas Pisczek, Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic, Ilkay Gundogan, Lars Bender, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Marco Reus, Ciro Immobile and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. However, even without these, it's not as though they have a particularly poor team. Certainly they have not been without all of them for the whole period. So let's take the most important five out - Weidenfeller, Hummels, Gundogan, Reus and Aubameyang. That would still leave a team of Langerak, Schmelzer, Subotic, Ginter, Durm, Bender, Kagawa, Mkhitaryan, Blaszcyowski, Ramos, Immobile - certainly good enough for mid-table at worst!
This leads me to my core argument behind the poor form, and the reason why I never believed they would be relegated. The demise of Dortmund simply demonstrates the significance of momentum in top-level football. We've seen this in the Premier League this year with Southampton in the positive sense, but nowhere has there been a better example of the reverse than at Signal Iduna Park. One loss tends to breed another, and unless you have a reaction quickly, you almost get into the habit of performing poorly again and again. Perhaps this is due to the additional pressure that is placed on every game, but whatever it is, it certainly would explain Dortmund's performances. This would also explain the relatively strong performances in Europe, as the pressure would be taken off for the Champions League games, and heaped on when they returned to domestic football.
So, with the BVB seemingly on the up with the pair of Bundesliga victories since the resumption of the season, are we about to see the most extreme example of the old footballing cliche: a game of two halves? The winter break seems to have enabled Dortmund to take stock and recharge, and have come back fresh. So, with that being said, what is a realistic aim? If we assume that I am correct, and Dortmund are in no significant danger of relegation, how high can they go? As we have seen, the four wins that Werder Bremen have enjoyed have lifted the side from the relegation zone to eighth, so the bottom half of the table is certainly close. As a result, I see no reason that Borussia Dortmund cannot make that spot their own.
However, beyond that, it is difficult to see them breaking into the European spots. There is a 12 point gap between Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach who currently occupy third place, which I feel would require the BVB to win almost all of their games to overhaul. A tricky task, and one that I just cannot anticipate. In my opinion, it's sixth at best for Dortmund, though I'm sure that Jurgen Klopp would accept tenth!
The significant problem that I foresee for Dortmund is keeping hold of some of their top players. With Champions League football for next season nothing more than a pipe dream, the likes of Reus, Hummels and Aubameyang could be heading for the exit door to pursue their careers from next season, which could have a significant impact on the long term future of Dortmund. It's certainly going to be an interesting one to watch for the remainder of this season and over the summer.
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