As someone who frequently places bets on the weekend's action, I shudder to think the odds that last weekend's achievement would have drawn at the start of the season. To score in three straight games is a run of good form for any striker, but to do it in 10 is nothing short of extraordinary.
And if that wasn't enough, Jamie Vardy has done it in a side hardly recognised as world-beaters. Ok, the fact that Leicester currently sit proudly atop the Premier League seems to undermine that argument somewhat. However, speaking of odds, I wonder what bookies would have laid on the Foxes topping the table after 12 games? My point is, few would have ever expected that the side that struggled to escape relegation last term would have found within their midst a true Premier League predator capable of this feat.
However, ever the cynic, I feel the need to dampen the enthusiasm of Leicester fans who will undoubtedly proclaim Jamie Vardy's goalscoring run the 'greatest of all time' - let's just hope they can do it in a more intelligent way than the current chant of 'Jamie Vardy's having a party'. Lyrical genius... And we wonder why the music industry is dumbing down!
Let's start by looking at the man whose record he could usurp if he nets against Manchester United next weekend: ironically enough, United hitman Ruud van Nistelrooy. Now, in order to gauge the achievements of the pair, and accurately compare them, we have to understand the circumstances under which they were done. I have already mentioned the fact that Vardy has completed this nine game run in a side hardly recognised as a league leader, while van Nistelrooy was part of the United side that bulldozed its way through everyone in the early 2000's. So, on the face of it, 1-0 Vardy, right?
Well, I wanted to delve a little deeper than that. It is also worthwhile considering the opponents that these goals came against. To score nine games in a row is impressive regardless, but scoring against eight of the top ten in the league is certainly more so than knocking in goals against the lesser sides.
When looking at van Nistelrooy's run, we see he scored 15 goals in his 10 games, with hat tricks against Fulham and Charlton, and a brace at home to Liverpool. In those games, he scored against the sides in 14th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 10th, 12th, 7th, 8th and 5th. If we were to average this out, it equates to 7th place - a pretty impressive feat for anyone. If we compare this with Jamie Vardy's recent form, we see quite a different story. His ten games have him scoring 12 goals, with braces against Arsenal and Southampton - ironically the two most difficult sides the Foxes have faced during this run. The teams he has scored against currently sit in 19th, 20th, 11th, 4th, 16th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 13th and 17th, giving Vardy an average of 13th place. I think this is emphatically 1-1.
There are a few more important factors to take into account. Firstly, it's worth noting that van Nistelrooy's run did come over two different seasons, with the last two games the start of the 2003/2004 season. I'm not sure if that removes a little of the gloss off his achievement or adds to it. On the one hand, it could have taken pressure off the Dutchman towards the end of the run, as he may not have remembered his strong form at the start of the new year. However, it could also be the case that it made it more difficult, as momentum and form plays a huge part in the continuing success, and any break in time could have an adverse effect on the mindset of the striker involved.
However, if this was going to be a negative, we should certainly bear in mind the fact that, including all competitions, Ruud van Nistelrooy actually went on a 12 game scoring streak in 2003. This was the previously mentioned eight Premier League games, in addition to Champions League goals, both home and away, against Real Madrid, and goals for Holland against the Czech Republic and Moldova. He therefore completed both a long term run based on momentum, and a run over the course of two seasons.
In comparison, if other competitions were included in Jamie Vardy's current run, the striker would only actually have managed a four game scoring streak, as Premier League games were punctuated by goalless appearances in the Capital One Cup and the England team. Is that really so impressive?
It certainly isn't when we compare it to the all-time greats, and longest scoring streaks. Josef Bican's incredible 19-game run for Slavia Prague has been going strong since 1939, only matched by Lionel Messi (who else) in 2013. Some argue that as Messi was then injured and never got the chance to continue the record, we will never know how far he could have gone, and some even count the two goals he scored immediately after his return as part of the record, but I don't buy it.
To put it in perspective, should we even be that overawed by the achievement of scoring in 10 straight? Below is the list of the 10 longest goal streaks in history, all of whom have gone significantly beyond the feat achieved in the Premier League:
Longest goalscoring runs in history:
19: Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona 2012–13)
19: Josef Bican (SK Slavia Praha 1939–40)
16: Gerd Müller (FC Bayern München 1969–70)
16: Teodor Peterek (Ruch Chorzów 1937–38)
15: Filip Johansson (IFK Göteborg 1924–25)
15: Tor Henning Hamre (FC Flora Tallinn 2003)
15: Fin Døssing (Dundee United FC 1964–65)
14: Fernando Gomes (FC Porto 1984–85)
13: Serge Masnaghetti (Valenciennes FC 1962–63)
13: Peter Dubovský (ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1991–92)
13: Tom Phillipson (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1926–27)
With this in mind, Jamie Vardy's run is the best moment of his career so far, and certainly warrants congratulations, but as with so many things, we have a tendency to get carried away by feats, particularly when completed by an Englishman. However, Vardy needs to go some to match the greatest ever, and I'd argue that he needs to consistently score against better opposition to be considered alongside Ruud van Nistelrooy as a top striker. Hang on, I'm sure I came to a similar conclusion about another overrated English striker...
In any case, while I hope I'm proven wrong, I do fully expect this run to come to an end against Manchester United this weekend. United have proven their ability to mark better players than Vardy out of the game, and I suspect the Foxes will find it much harder to score. He may still finish as top scorer this season, but at some point in the season, he will have a lean spell and it is always the mark of a good striker to see how he recovers from that.
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Saturday 28 November 2015
Tuesday 3 November 2015
London Marathon 2016: My Personal Challenge
Though this is a sporting post, and therefore in-keeping with the theme of my blog, it is significantly different from anything I've ever written about before. I found out this week that I will be part of the Mind team running the 2016 London Marathon on 24 April.
To provide you with a bit of background - I've never been one to take on outlandish challenges, preferring instead to make my life as consistent as possible. However, over the last 12 months, I have been presented with many challenging changes that were beyond my control, a number of which I am still struggling with. With this in mind, I felt like I needed to provide myself with a challenge of my choice, that I could manage and control.
Having always been sporty, playing a combination of football and tennis as a child, I know I am fairly good when it comes to running. However, I have never entered any formal running event, with the furthest I had run until recently a 10k at my local park. This therefore provides me with a decent base, while giving me the potential to challenge myself in a more controlled environment.
I do, however, have a tendency to get carried away, which perhaps explains my decision to skip a few steps and go straight for the most gruelling, exhausting type of race in the world. Most people would probably build up with some 10k's and then a few halves - would certainly have made the prospect easier!
Other than my own tendencies, there was another reason to jump straight into the marathon. Having found out that Mind, the mental health charity, had places to run and raise money, I wanted to get involved. Mental health remains one of the largest social taboos, despite the best attempts of both the government and charities. I have had family members and friends who have suffered from mental conditions, and have seen the difficulties that come from being unable to talk about it. Raising money to attempt to research and cure any conditions would obviously be the ideal, but my objective is simply to raise awareness of these conditions.
My target to raise is £2,000, so I've started a JustGiving page - see link below. If you've had any experience with mental illness, or understand how painful it is to run a marathon, or even if you've just enjoyed my blog posts, please give what you can.
https://www.justgiving.com/ANDREW-HAYWOOD3/
Thanks,
Andy
To provide you with a bit of background - I've never been one to take on outlandish challenges, preferring instead to make my life as consistent as possible. However, over the last 12 months, I have been presented with many challenging changes that were beyond my control, a number of which I am still struggling with. With this in mind, I felt like I needed to provide myself with a challenge of my choice, that I could manage and control.
Having always been sporty, playing a combination of football and tennis as a child, I know I am fairly good when it comes to running. However, I have never entered any formal running event, with the furthest I had run until recently a 10k at my local park. This therefore provides me with a decent base, while giving me the potential to challenge myself in a more controlled environment.
I do, however, have a tendency to get carried away, which perhaps explains my decision to skip a few steps and go straight for the most gruelling, exhausting type of race in the world. Most people would probably build up with some 10k's and then a few halves - would certainly have made the prospect easier!
Other than my own tendencies, there was another reason to jump straight into the marathon. Having found out that Mind, the mental health charity, had places to run and raise money, I wanted to get involved. Mental health remains one of the largest social taboos, despite the best attempts of both the government and charities. I have had family members and friends who have suffered from mental conditions, and have seen the difficulties that come from being unable to talk about it. Raising money to attempt to research and cure any conditions would obviously be the ideal, but my objective is simply to raise awareness of these conditions.
My target to raise is £2,000, so I've started a JustGiving page - see link below. If you've had any experience with mental illness, or understand how painful it is to run a marathon, or even if you've just enjoyed my blog posts, please give what you can.
https://www.justgiving.com/ANDREW-HAYWOOD3/
Thanks,
Andy
Sunday 1 November 2015
Chelsea: How The Mighty Have Fallen
The worst title defence in the history of the Premier League. After yesterday's defeat at home to Liverpool, Chelsea have registered an embarrassing return of just 11 points after eleven first team matches, with just three wins, six defeats and 22 goals conceded. To put it in perspective, this is almost identical to the disastrous defence of Blackburn Rovers following their one and only title in 1995, and is six points worse than the ill-fated attempt by David Moyes after the Sir Alex Ferguson era at Manchester United.
What makes this current title defence most surprising is that this has not come after a shock title win or change in management. In fact, next to nothing has changed. The side that claimed the league just a few short months ago is now floundering just above the relegation zone, and it's not like they can blame injuries either. Though they have missed Thibaut Courtois for the majority of the season so far, the eleven that were so successful in the last season remain largely ever-present.
What it simply comes down to is the fact that many of the top players from last year have struggled to hit the heights that they achieved in that title winning side. If we take the lynchpins of that side, namely John Terry, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, we can clearly see in each case, the statistics are no longer in their favour when compared to many of their rivals.
Take the stoic centre half. A Chelsea legend that has taken his side through tough times seemingly single-handedly in the past, and has been a consistent performer and rock for Jose Mourinho in both his spells at the club. Last year was widely considered the Englishman's best season for some time, with the centre back's organisation enabling the team to keep 17 clean sheets, at a ratio of almost one every two games. He also scored five goals from 18 shots - the second best return of his career. In comparison, in the first 11 games of this season, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet, with Terry yet to open his personal account. He has also come under considerable criticism, being sent off at West Brom and dropped to the bench for the crunch game with Manchester City.
Similarly, Eden Hazard has struggled to make the impact he had last season. Having comprehensively won the Barclays Premier League Player of the Year Award last year, he has been almost anonymous this season. Though his chances created statistics and assists are not bad when compared to last season (29 chances created in 11 games this season/ 99 created in total last year), he does not seem to quote have the same aura around him that saw him glide past players like they weren't even there. His substitution against Liverpool yesterday came as no surprise, as up until that point I don't think I had heard his name uttered by the commentary team.
The difference between statistics for both Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa is even more stark. The power pair last year were a contributing factor to a huge percentage of Chelsea goals last year, with Fabregas hailed as a pass master for his 18 assists and Costa ranked among the top strikers in the world scoring 20 goals. How times have changed. This season, Fabregas has set up just one goal, while Costa is a tenth of the way to last year's goals total, with almost a third of the season gone.
It's certainly no secret that this has had a dramatic impact on the pressure on the shoulders of Jose Mourinho. And we have already seen how he tends to overhype. In a post last year, I looked at Jose's growing vendetta with both the English media and Premier League referees, and suggested that perhaps this was simply another of the Portuguese manager's mind-games. However, having seen the ongoing behaviour and anger of the Chelsea man, I'm not quite so sure he's as in-control as he appeared last year. He is clearly feeling the pressure, and would rather apportion blame everywhere but with himself, and referees are certainly an easy target.
One thing I still can't wrap my brain around is why. How is it that so many of not just Chelsea's top men, but the supporting cast like Matic, Ivanovic, Oscar and Azpilicueta, all of whom were outstanding in the title win, can perform so poorly all at the same time. An off game or two is to be expected, but it's getting on towards the halfway point, and I honestly cannot remember a game where Chelsea have looked like themselves.
The first explanation that I have read is from Fabio Capello. The former England and Real Madrid coach laid the accusation that Jose Mourinho's style of management burns players out, keeping them at optimal levels for a season or 18 months, but then sees performances fall off a cliff. While that would accurately explain the Portuguese's experience on this occasion, in addition to his times at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, it would not cover the initial period spent in London. Successive titles, the second more emphatic than the first, would certainly call the theory into question. Further, the individuals at the heart of that Chelsea title success remained effective for the club for years to come - look at Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba.
In addition, there have been a lot of talks in the papers recently about rifts in the dressing room. Now, while I'm willing to take such accusations with a pinch of salt, there is normally no smoke without fire, and it does appear during the games like many of the players aren't on the same wavelength. How much of that is just the players trying to force the issue, and how much is a genuine discord is difficult to say, but it is certainly a theory that cannot be ruled out.
My analysis of this adds a rather ironic twist. Jose Mourinho's attitude that the world is against him, blaming referees, the media and even his own doctors for his shortcomings may well have been a mind-game, but has now fostered an environment at Chelsea that is incredibly demoralising. Believing that people are against you can have a dramatic impact on confidence and motivation, and could certainly explain the ongoing issues. Further to this, the treatment of Eva Carneiro will undoubtedly have underlined the dictatorial regime currently in operation at the London club, and will inevitably have players and staff looking nervously over their shoulders. This tends to result in people taking fewer risks, playing it safe and therefore not achieving their potential - sound familiar?
While Jose Mourinho has been given the green light by Roman Abramovic, it is slowly but surely moving to a shade of amber. Based on the last three months, he needs to grow up, accept that bad luck and bad decisions happen, and get on with motivating his players and stop attempting to control the actions of officials. Who does he think he is, Sir Alex Ferguson?
However, Chelsea have more than enough quality to get themselves out of their current predicament, and it was fitting that it was Jurgen Klopp, who experienced the exact same thing with Dortmund last year, who visited Stamford Bridge yesterday. I'm going for a sixth place finish now for Chelsea, but they need to seriously rethink their approach and pull together to achieve even that.
What makes this current title defence most surprising is that this has not come after a shock title win or change in management. In fact, next to nothing has changed. The side that claimed the league just a few short months ago is now floundering just above the relegation zone, and it's not like they can blame injuries either. Though they have missed Thibaut Courtois for the majority of the season so far, the eleven that were so successful in the last season remain largely ever-present.
What it simply comes down to is the fact that many of the top players from last year have struggled to hit the heights that they achieved in that title winning side. If we take the lynchpins of that side, namely John Terry, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, we can clearly see in each case, the statistics are no longer in their favour when compared to many of their rivals.
Take the stoic centre half. A Chelsea legend that has taken his side through tough times seemingly single-handedly in the past, and has been a consistent performer and rock for Jose Mourinho in both his spells at the club. Last year was widely considered the Englishman's best season for some time, with the centre back's organisation enabling the team to keep 17 clean sheets, at a ratio of almost one every two games. He also scored five goals from 18 shots - the second best return of his career. In comparison, in the first 11 games of this season, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet, with Terry yet to open his personal account. He has also come under considerable criticism, being sent off at West Brom and dropped to the bench for the crunch game with Manchester City.
Similarly, Eden Hazard has struggled to make the impact he had last season. Having comprehensively won the Barclays Premier League Player of the Year Award last year, he has been almost anonymous this season. Though his chances created statistics and assists are not bad when compared to last season (29 chances created in 11 games this season/ 99 created in total last year), he does not seem to quote have the same aura around him that saw him glide past players like they weren't even there. His substitution against Liverpool yesterday came as no surprise, as up until that point I don't think I had heard his name uttered by the commentary team.
The difference between statistics for both Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa is even more stark. The power pair last year were a contributing factor to a huge percentage of Chelsea goals last year, with Fabregas hailed as a pass master for his 18 assists and Costa ranked among the top strikers in the world scoring 20 goals. How times have changed. This season, Fabregas has set up just one goal, while Costa is a tenth of the way to last year's goals total, with almost a third of the season gone.
It's certainly no secret that this has had a dramatic impact on the pressure on the shoulders of Jose Mourinho. And we have already seen how he tends to overhype. In a post last year, I looked at Jose's growing vendetta with both the English media and Premier League referees, and suggested that perhaps this was simply another of the Portuguese manager's mind-games. However, having seen the ongoing behaviour and anger of the Chelsea man, I'm not quite so sure he's as in-control as he appeared last year. He is clearly feeling the pressure, and would rather apportion blame everywhere but with himself, and referees are certainly an easy target.
One thing I still can't wrap my brain around is why. How is it that so many of not just Chelsea's top men, but the supporting cast like Matic, Ivanovic, Oscar and Azpilicueta, all of whom were outstanding in the title win, can perform so poorly all at the same time. An off game or two is to be expected, but it's getting on towards the halfway point, and I honestly cannot remember a game where Chelsea have looked like themselves.
The first explanation that I have read is from Fabio Capello. The former England and Real Madrid coach laid the accusation that Jose Mourinho's style of management burns players out, keeping them at optimal levels for a season or 18 months, but then sees performances fall off a cliff. While that would accurately explain the Portuguese's experience on this occasion, in addition to his times at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, it would not cover the initial period spent in London. Successive titles, the second more emphatic than the first, would certainly call the theory into question. Further, the individuals at the heart of that Chelsea title success remained effective for the club for years to come - look at Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba.
In addition, there have been a lot of talks in the papers recently about rifts in the dressing room. Now, while I'm willing to take such accusations with a pinch of salt, there is normally no smoke without fire, and it does appear during the games like many of the players aren't on the same wavelength. How much of that is just the players trying to force the issue, and how much is a genuine discord is difficult to say, but it is certainly a theory that cannot be ruled out.
My analysis of this adds a rather ironic twist. Jose Mourinho's attitude that the world is against him, blaming referees, the media and even his own doctors for his shortcomings may well have been a mind-game, but has now fostered an environment at Chelsea that is incredibly demoralising. Believing that people are against you can have a dramatic impact on confidence and motivation, and could certainly explain the ongoing issues. Further to this, the treatment of Eva Carneiro will undoubtedly have underlined the dictatorial regime currently in operation at the London club, and will inevitably have players and staff looking nervously over their shoulders. This tends to result in people taking fewer risks, playing it safe and therefore not achieving their potential - sound familiar?
While Jose Mourinho has been given the green light by Roman Abramovic, it is slowly but surely moving to a shade of amber. Based on the last three months, he needs to grow up, accept that bad luck and bad decisions happen, and get on with motivating his players and stop attempting to control the actions of officials. Who does he think he is, Sir Alex Ferguson?
However, Chelsea have more than enough quality to get themselves out of their current predicament, and it was fitting that it was Jurgen Klopp, who experienced the exact same thing with Dortmund last year, who visited Stamford Bridge yesterday. I'm going for a sixth place finish now for Chelsea, but they need to seriously rethink their approach and pull together to achieve even that.
Sunday 4 October 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 2015 Window Top 10 Loan and Free Wheeler-Dealers
In my final post of this current series, I wanted to do something a little bit differently. In every transfer window, media attention and general focus lands on the big money moves, or the potential difference makers, as is reflected by my previous blogs.
Very little tends to be made of the movement in the free or loan transfer window, but these are where some of the most impressive deals are done. All of the following have at one time or another moved for nothing: Lewandowski, Pirlo, Law, Khedira, Klinsmann and Raul, and this season has been no different, with a number of good free and loan deals being done, particularly by clubs lower down the Premier League pecking order.
10. Maarten Stekelenburg - Fulham to Southampton (Loan)
It's not every day you get the chance to sign a goalkeeper that has played in a World Cup final, but Southampton did exactly that this year. After an unsuccessful (and no doubt costly) spell at Fulham, which was punctuated by a brief loan spell with AS Monaco, the Dutchman made the move across the South East to Southampton. Though in the long-term Stekelenburg is likely to play second fiddle to the currently injured Fraser Forster, the former Roma man is enjoying his time on the coast, with three successive clean sheets in recent games.
9. Tom Cleverley - Manchester United to Everton (Free)
Although an uninspiring player on the face of it, and certainly not good enough for the likes of Manchester United (or England), but a solid central midfielder. Having been loaned out to Aston Villa last year, and generally impressed, Cleverley has earned a permanent move away from Old Trafford, and to a decent side in Everton. Like Stekelenberg, I don't expect the Englishman to play every game, but at just 26 years old, he still has plenty to offer and will be challenged at Goodison Park. He adds reasonable strength in depth and cover for the more experienced Gareth Barry, and will certainly have an opportunity to prove himself this season.
8. Nathan Dyer - Swansea City to Leicester City (Loan)
A bit of surprising one, this. Having been one of the staples of the Swansea side of the last few years, particularly in their first season back in the big time in 2011-2012, I felt that the flyer winger would still be a part of Garry Monk's plans. However, the signing and rise in form of Jefferson Montero has seen the opportunities dry up for Dyer, and rather than settle for reduced first-team minutes, the Englishman made the call to go out on loan to Leicester. While I'm not expecting the little winger to set the team alight over the coming months, particularly with the form of Riyhad Mahrez at present, but I do see him playing an important role over the season.
7. Victor Ibarbo - AS Roma to Watford (Loan)
A bolt out of the unknown, this transfer. Having enjoyed a largely successful career in Serie A with both Cagliari and Roma, as well as earning a number of caps for the Colombian national side, Ibarbo made the move to Premier League new boys Watford. A proven goalscorer with prodigious pace, it will be interesting to see how the striker gets on, particularly acclimatising to the physical nature of the Premier League. First of all, however, he needs to get to grips with the English legislation, with Ibarbo noble to take his place in the Watford side at the weekend due to visa problems. Once he has cleared that problem, I am certain he will prove a good signing for the Hornets, and could well prove the difference between survival and relegation come May.
6. Ibrahim Afellay - Barcelona to Stoke City (Free)
Stoke are slowly but surely putting together an impressive team of names that perhaps haven't hit their heights at enormous clubs, with Afellay joining the likes of Bojan and Shaqiri at the Britannia this summer. Once seen as the golden boy of Dutch football, Afellay shone in the Eredivisie, bringing PSV a number of titles and trophies. As a result, Barcelona took notice, and the youngster got the move to the Nou Camp.
However, since then it has been a seemingly never-ending series of disappointment, underperformance and a string of horrendous injuries, which has left Afellay needing to resurrect his career. He certainly possesses an enormous amount of quality, and has the potential to win a game in an instant, with his left foot particularly potent. However, he has also shown that he can be petulant, with his sending off against West Brom this season a prime example. All in all, a strong transfer, but Mark Hughes may have a challenge getting the best out of him.
5. James Milner - Manchester City to Liverpool (Free)
Perhaps not the most exciting transfer that Liverpool made this summer, but arguably one of the more important. The personification of the term 'utility player', Milner is an extremely valuable addition to Liverpool, providing them with cover across a number of positions. Having found his game time at Manchester City reduced year on year since signing for the club in 2010, Milner had made it clear that he would leave at the end of his contract. The only real question then was who would he go to?
With the midfielder unlikely to want to take a significant step down in quality that has been seen by many of this season's free transfers, it became evident that Liverpool were rapidly becoming first choice to secure his services. He has had an unspectacular start to life at Anfield, but then again he is an unspectacular player!
4. Yann M'Vila - Rubin Kazan to Sunderland (Loan)
Given the struggle that Sunderland have had in the last few seasons to retain their Premier League status, it surprised me that they were able to tempt the man who was once thought of extremely highly, and linked with some of Europe's top sides. True, his stock has dipped somewhat after choosing to ignore the top leagues and making the move to Russia, but I would have thought that his name alone would have got him into sides more capable of making an impact on the league. Considering the start that the Black Cats have made to this season, M'Vila has not been particularly poor, showing his talent with an exquisite free kick. Sunderland will need a few more of those to get them out of trouble, however.
3. Alex Song - Barcelona to West Ham United (Loan)
Though perhaps not as shocking as it was last season, I still think this represents an outstanding bit of business for the Hammers. Having proven his worth in England with first Arsenal, and then last season at Upton Park, Alex Song has returned to East London with a strong pedigree. Though his game-time so far this season has been limited, he will add to a rapidly improving West Ham side, and will further aid the remarkable away record with a bit of steel to go with the flair of the likes of Dimitri Payet.
2. Micah Richards - Manchester City to Aston Villa (Free)
Another Manchester City player, and an Englishman at that, to leave on a free this season. But one club's loss is another's gain, and in this case, I feel Villa have got themselves an absolute gem. Though it's easy to forget, given the amount of time Richards has been around, he is relatively young at just 27 years old. Though, like many of the others in this list, he has failed to live up to what was unreasonable hype, and has found himself out of favour with Manuel Pellegrini. Incredibly strong and quick, he fits perfectly into the Premier League, either at centre back or full back, and will add leadership and stability to the Villa defence. He's already shown considerable promise, and has been installed as captain of the Birmingham club.
1. Andre Ayew - Olympique Marseille to Swansea City (Free)
I think this goes without saying. An absolutely outstanding start to life in the Premier League for Andre Ayew, with a remarkable return of two goals and three assists. The Ghanaian has fitted into the quick pass and move-style football currently on display at the Liberty Stadium perfectly, quickly finding a fruitful partnership with striker Bafetimbi Gomis, who has also started the season like a freight train. Though I'm sure that both he and Swansea will go through lean spells during the season, I'm equally sure that he has the quality to make it through them and continue to contribute to the Swans' season. Shame the same can't be said for his brother Jordan at Aston Villa...
It's been a record-breaking transfer window, and with the new multi-billion pound TV deal set to come into operation next season, the spending is only going to get more pronounced. The only difference is that there will be more transfers made by the lower table sides, with the likes of Shaqiri, Cabaye and Wijnaldum just the start. However, clubs will still try to make the most out of their money, and the free transfers may become ever more significant when we look at the true ability of managers and their chief executives to exploit the market.
With such high sums being thrown around, it's set to be an exciting next few years for transfers, and an exciting next few months to see how the newest names cope with the demands at their new clubs.
Very little tends to be made of the movement in the free or loan transfer window, but these are where some of the most impressive deals are done. All of the following have at one time or another moved for nothing: Lewandowski, Pirlo, Law, Khedira, Klinsmann and Raul, and this season has been no different, with a number of good free and loan deals being done, particularly by clubs lower down the Premier League pecking order.
10. Maarten Stekelenburg - Fulham to Southampton (Loan)
It's not every day you get the chance to sign a goalkeeper that has played in a World Cup final, but Southampton did exactly that this year. After an unsuccessful (and no doubt costly) spell at Fulham, which was punctuated by a brief loan spell with AS Monaco, the Dutchman made the move across the South East to Southampton. Though in the long-term Stekelenburg is likely to play second fiddle to the currently injured Fraser Forster, the former Roma man is enjoying his time on the coast, with three successive clean sheets in recent games.
9. Tom Cleverley - Manchester United to Everton (Free)
Although an uninspiring player on the face of it, and certainly not good enough for the likes of Manchester United (or England), but a solid central midfielder. Having been loaned out to Aston Villa last year, and generally impressed, Cleverley has earned a permanent move away from Old Trafford, and to a decent side in Everton. Like Stekelenberg, I don't expect the Englishman to play every game, but at just 26 years old, he still has plenty to offer and will be challenged at Goodison Park. He adds reasonable strength in depth and cover for the more experienced Gareth Barry, and will certainly have an opportunity to prove himself this season.
8. Nathan Dyer - Swansea City to Leicester City (Loan)
A bit of surprising one, this. Having been one of the staples of the Swansea side of the last few years, particularly in their first season back in the big time in 2011-2012, I felt that the flyer winger would still be a part of Garry Monk's plans. However, the signing and rise in form of Jefferson Montero has seen the opportunities dry up for Dyer, and rather than settle for reduced first-team minutes, the Englishman made the call to go out on loan to Leicester. While I'm not expecting the little winger to set the team alight over the coming months, particularly with the form of Riyhad Mahrez at present, but I do see him playing an important role over the season.
7. Victor Ibarbo - AS Roma to Watford (Loan)
A bolt out of the unknown, this transfer. Having enjoyed a largely successful career in Serie A with both Cagliari and Roma, as well as earning a number of caps for the Colombian national side, Ibarbo made the move to Premier League new boys Watford. A proven goalscorer with prodigious pace, it will be interesting to see how the striker gets on, particularly acclimatising to the physical nature of the Premier League. First of all, however, he needs to get to grips with the English legislation, with Ibarbo noble to take his place in the Watford side at the weekend due to visa problems. Once he has cleared that problem, I am certain he will prove a good signing for the Hornets, and could well prove the difference between survival and relegation come May.
6. Ibrahim Afellay - Barcelona to Stoke City (Free)
Stoke are slowly but surely putting together an impressive team of names that perhaps haven't hit their heights at enormous clubs, with Afellay joining the likes of Bojan and Shaqiri at the Britannia this summer. Once seen as the golden boy of Dutch football, Afellay shone in the Eredivisie, bringing PSV a number of titles and trophies. As a result, Barcelona took notice, and the youngster got the move to the Nou Camp.
However, since then it has been a seemingly never-ending series of disappointment, underperformance and a string of horrendous injuries, which has left Afellay needing to resurrect his career. He certainly possesses an enormous amount of quality, and has the potential to win a game in an instant, with his left foot particularly potent. However, he has also shown that he can be petulant, with his sending off against West Brom this season a prime example. All in all, a strong transfer, but Mark Hughes may have a challenge getting the best out of him.
5. James Milner - Manchester City to Liverpool (Free)
Perhaps not the most exciting transfer that Liverpool made this summer, but arguably one of the more important. The personification of the term 'utility player', Milner is an extremely valuable addition to Liverpool, providing them with cover across a number of positions. Having found his game time at Manchester City reduced year on year since signing for the club in 2010, Milner had made it clear that he would leave at the end of his contract. The only real question then was who would he go to?
With the midfielder unlikely to want to take a significant step down in quality that has been seen by many of this season's free transfers, it became evident that Liverpool were rapidly becoming first choice to secure his services. He has had an unspectacular start to life at Anfield, but then again he is an unspectacular player!
4. Yann M'Vila - Rubin Kazan to Sunderland (Loan)
Given the struggle that Sunderland have had in the last few seasons to retain their Premier League status, it surprised me that they were able to tempt the man who was once thought of extremely highly, and linked with some of Europe's top sides. True, his stock has dipped somewhat after choosing to ignore the top leagues and making the move to Russia, but I would have thought that his name alone would have got him into sides more capable of making an impact on the league. Considering the start that the Black Cats have made to this season, M'Vila has not been particularly poor, showing his talent with an exquisite free kick. Sunderland will need a few more of those to get them out of trouble, however.
3. Alex Song - Barcelona to West Ham United (Loan)
Though perhaps not as shocking as it was last season, I still think this represents an outstanding bit of business for the Hammers. Having proven his worth in England with first Arsenal, and then last season at Upton Park, Alex Song has returned to East London with a strong pedigree. Though his game-time so far this season has been limited, he will add to a rapidly improving West Ham side, and will further aid the remarkable away record with a bit of steel to go with the flair of the likes of Dimitri Payet.
2. Micah Richards - Manchester City to Aston Villa (Free)
Another Manchester City player, and an Englishman at that, to leave on a free this season. But one club's loss is another's gain, and in this case, I feel Villa have got themselves an absolute gem. Though it's easy to forget, given the amount of time Richards has been around, he is relatively young at just 27 years old. Though, like many of the others in this list, he has failed to live up to what was unreasonable hype, and has found himself out of favour with Manuel Pellegrini. Incredibly strong and quick, he fits perfectly into the Premier League, either at centre back or full back, and will add leadership and stability to the Villa defence. He's already shown considerable promise, and has been installed as captain of the Birmingham club.
1. Andre Ayew - Olympique Marseille to Swansea City (Free)
I think this goes without saying. An absolutely outstanding start to life in the Premier League for Andre Ayew, with a remarkable return of two goals and three assists. The Ghanaian has fitted into the quick pass and move-style football currently on display at the Liberty Stadium perfectly, quickly finding a fruitful partnership with striker Bafetimbi Gomis, who has also started the season like a freight train. Though I'm sure that both he and Swansea will go through lean spells during the season, I'm equally sure that he has the quality to make it through them and continue to contribute to the Swans' season. Shame the same can't be said for his brother Jordan at Aston Villa...
It's been a record-breaking transfer window, and with the new multi-billion pound TV deal set to come into operation next season, the spending is only going to get more pronounced. The only difference is that there will be more transfers made by the lower table sides, with the likes of Shaqiri, Cabaye and Wijnaldum just the start. However, clubs will still try to make the most out of their money, and the free transfers may become ever more significant when we look at the true ability of managers and their chief executives to exploit the market.
With such high sums being thrown around, it's set to be an exciting next few years for transfers, and an exciting next few months to see how the newest names cope with the demands at their new clubs.
Sunday 20 September 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 2015 Window Top 10 Reasonably-Priced Stars
To finish off my Summer Transfer Window series, I'm looking at some of the notable activity from this season's movement. In my latest post, I examined the 10 biggest money moves, and what the problems/pitfalls may be. Here, I'm going to take a leaf out to Top Gear's book - no cars, but everyone here was reasonably priced!
These are the transfers that have the potential to change the fortunes of the clubs involved, and for a relatively small outlay.
10. Petr Cech - Chelsea to Arsenal (£10.5m)
This one was tricky, and a close one between Bastian Schweinsteiger's move to Manchester United and Cech's switch to Arsenal. In the end, I went with the veteran goalkeeper, on the grounds that I feel he will play more first-team games than the German, and has the potential to save the Gunners the greater number of points. A position that was dearly required, Wenger moved swiftly to secure the services of Cech, who instantly repaid him with two bad errors in the team's 2-0 opening day defeat to West Ham. However, he is a true professional, and I'm confident that he will be great signing for Arsenal. Fans of the London club will be bemused that he is the only one, however...
9. Matteo Darmian - Torino to Manchester United (£12.5m)
Having broken onto the scene, and into the Italian national side, during his time at Torino, Matteo Darmian was added by Louis van Gaal to add attacking threat and defensive stability to Manchester United's right hand side. For £12.5m, he looks a good buy, with United so far looking fairly assured in their opening few games. He has yet to demonstrate his attacking capabilities to the full, but he has been a hit with the Old Trafford faithful, and will draw confidence from his strong opening form.
8. Salomon Rondon - Zenit St Petersburg to West Bromwich Albion (£12m)
If you'd have asked West Brom fans in July if they felt they could tempt a striker who was scoring goals in the Champions League last season, I'm sure many would have given an answer in the negative. Though relatively unknown on these shores, Salomon Rondon has been a proven goalscorer in Russia, winning numerous titles and accolades with Zenit St Petersburg. Though he is a slight gamble at £12m, Tony Pulis is notoriously good at getting the best out of his squad, and I'm sure it won't be long before we see the Venezuelan's full potential in the Premier League. As his performance against Chelsea proved, he has the potential to put seasoned defenders to the sword, and his power and ability should take West Brom into the safety of mid-table mediocrity, and maybe higher if he can stay injury-free.
7. Nathaniel Clyne - Southampton to Liverpool (£12.5m)
Given the clamour, and subsequent overpricing, of English players (for more, please see Raheem Sterling, Andy Carroll, Owen Hargreaves, Luke Shaw and Adam Lallana), the next two entries are more remarkable. After a strong season with Southampton, which saw the right-back establish himself in the England set-up, Nathaniel Clyne made the move to Merseyside for a surprisingly low fee of £12.5m. Given his age of just 24, Clyne is an outstanding signing, with plenty of time to improve both for club and country, and will certainly be an asset for Liverpool as they push towards the Champions League places once again this term.
6. Fabian Delph - Aston Villa to Manchester City (£8m)
To acquire an England international for under £10m is impressive in this day and age, and when it's someone under 25 and plenty of years ahead of him, it's almost remarkable. Fabian Delph has proven himself to be a future England central midfielder, leading Aston Villa to the FA Cup final last year with his composure and authority. After a confusing on again/off again transfer saga, which saw him posing in an Aston Villa shirt just six days before the announcement of City's move, then rejecting a move, before eventually making the switch to the Blues. Unfortunately, his career at City has started with a series of injuries (cue comparisons to Jack Rodwell and Scott Sinclair), but I am convinced he will add something to the squad in the long-term.
5. Georginio Wijnaldum - PSV Eindhoven to Newcastle United (£14.5m)
Though an expensive signing, the Dutchman answers a serious question that the Geordies had last year - how can we create more goals? With the failure of Remy Cabella and the exit of Yohan Cabaye, Newcastle have struggled to score enough to drag themselves away from danger, and much of the ire has been directed at Mike Ashley. However, the Sports Direct boss has put his hand in his pocket this year, added some strong creative talent to the Newcastle squad. At the tender age of 24, Wijnaldum has much to offer, and his debut goal against Southampton will have settled the nerves. He has European pedigree, and will certainly help Newcastle get back to were they should be.
4. Florian Thauvin - Olympique Marseille to Newcastle United (£12m)
Alongside Wijnaldum, Newcastle fans can be excited by the arrival of 22 year-old Florian Thauvin. One of the most creative players in Ligue 1 over the last season or so, he demonstrated his credentials in the 4-1 League Cup victory over Northampton, having a hand in all of Newcastle's goals. Ok, that was against a League Two side, but he was inches away from causing a shock at Old Trafford earlier in the season, and I'm sure he'll be terrorising defences up and down the country soon enough.
3. Dimitri Payet - Olympique Marseille to West Ham United (£12m)
It's surprised me that the man who was credited with creating the most chances of any in European football last season made the move to West Ham United, and for such a relatively small fee when compared to the fee generated by the man in second, Kevin De Bruyne. Though he is older, he is just 28, and will be coming into his prime in the coming years. He's already proven his worth at West Ham, creating a number of top quality chances, helping the Hammers win at both Anfield and The Emirates, and his set piece deliveries have defences worried. He looks an excellent signing.
2. Yohan Cabaye - Paris Saint Germain to Crystal Palace (£10m)
There aren't many signings each season that you have to wonder if you've just seen them - but this year we've had two, and it's been difficult to separate them. In the end, I've put Yohan Cabaye's move to Crystal Palace second. When the deal was announced, I thought this was not going to be beaten, with the commanding central midfielder a genius move in the market by Alan Pardew. However, the hair that split the two is the fact that Pardew has had the long-running relationship with Cabaye, having signed the Frenchman for Newcastle a few seasons ago. However, for Palace to attract players of the quality of Cabaye is outstanding, and for £10m is a deal that is more than value for money.
1. Xherdan Shaqiri - Inter Milan to Stoke City (£12m)
However, this one was absolutely out of the blue. Honestly, when Peter Crouch made the suggestion on Twitter back in June that Xherdan Shaqiri was considering a move to the Potteries, I genuinely thought he was joking. The diminutive Swiss has been at some of the world's most prestigious and celebrated clubs, and at just 23, is hardly past his best and looking to hang up his boots. Having struggled in his time at Inter Milan, he chose the move to the Premier League, and has already showed his value, providing an impressive assist from a free kick. He is perfectly built for the English league, and I'm sure will make a great addition to Stoke's more creative squad, now including the likes of Bojan, Afellay and Arnautovic - a far cry from the 'long ball team' of Rory Delap and Ricardo Fuller!
All in all, an impressive showing from some of the mid-table teams in the Premier League, attracting some enormous quality from around the globe. I think this is why the English league is the best in the world, and with the £5bn Sky TV deal to come into effect, teams are only going to have more money to play with in the coming years.
These are the transfers that have the potential to change the fortunes of the clubs involved, and for a relatively small outlay.
10. Petr Cech - Chelsea to Arsenal (£10.5m)
This one was tricky, and a close one between Bastian Schweinsteiger's move to Manchester United and Cech's switch to Arsenal. In the end, I went with the veteran goalkeeper, on the grounds that I feel he will play more first-team games than the German, and has the potential to save the Gunners the greater number of points. A position that was dearly required, Wenger moved swiftly to secure the services of Cech, who instantly repaid him with two bad errors in the team's 2-0 opening day defeat to West Ham. However, he is a true professional, and I'm confident that he will be great signing for Arsenal. Fans of the London club will be bemused that he is the only one, however...
9. Matteo Darmian - Torino to Manchester United (£12.5m)
Having broken onto the scene, and into the Italian national side, during his time at Torino, Matteo Darmian was added by Louis van Gaal to add attacking threat and defensive stability to Manchester United's right hand side. For £12.5m, he looks a good buy, with United so far looking fairly assured in their opening few games. He has yet to demonstrate his attacking capabilities to the full, but he has been a hit with the Old Trafford faithful, and will draw confidence from his strong opening form.
8. Salomon Rondon - Zenit St Petersburg to West Bromwich Albion (£12m)
If you'd have asked West Brom fans in July if they felt they could tempt a striker who was scoring goals in the Champions League last season, I'm sure many would have given an answer in the negative. Though relatively unknown on these shores, Salomon Rondon has been a proven goalscorer in Russia, winning numerous titles and accolades with Zenit St Petersburg. Though he is a slight gamble at £12m, Tony Pulis is notoriously good at getting the best out of his squad, and I'm sure it won't be long before we see the Venezuelan's full potential in the Premier League. As his performance against Chelsea proved, he has the potential to put seasoned defenders to the sword, and his power and ability should take West Brom into the safety of mid-table mediocrity, and maybe higher if he can stay injury-free.
7. Nathaniel Clyne - Southampton to Liverpool (£12.5m)
Given the clamour, and subsequent overpricing, of English players (for more, please see Raheem Sterling, Andy Carroll, Owen Hargreaves, Luke Shaw and Adam Lallana), the next two entries are more remarkable. After a strong season with Southampton, which saw the right-back establish himself in the England set-up, Nathaniel Clyne made the move to Merseyside for a surprisingly low fee of £12.5m. Given his age of just 24, Clyne is an outstanding signing, with plenty of time to improve both for club and country, and will certainly be an asset for Liverpool as they push towards the Champions League places once again this term.
6. Fabian Delph - Aston Villa to Manchester City (£8m)
To acquire an England international for under £10m is impressive in this day and age, and when it's someone under 25 and plenty of years ahead of him, it's almost remarkable. Fabian Delph has proven himself to be a future England central midfielder, leading Aston Villa to the FA Cup final last year with his composure and authority. After a confusing on again/off again transfer saga, which saw him posing in an Aston Villa shirt just six days before the announcement of City's move, then rejecting a move, before eventually making the switch to the Blues. Unfortunately, his career at City has started with a series of injuries (cue comparisons to Jack Rodwell and Scott Sinclair), but I am convinced he will add something to the squad in the long-term.
5. Georginio Wijnaldum - PSV Eindhoven to Newcastle United (£14.5m)
Though an expensive signing, the Dutchman answers a serious question that the Geordies had last year - how can we create more goals? With the failure of Remy Cabella and the exit of Yohan Cabaye, Newcastle have struggled to score enough to drag themselves away from danger, and much of the ire has been directed at Mike Ashley. However, the Sports Direct boss has put his hand in his pocket this year, added some strong creative talent to the Newcastle squad. At the tender age of 24, Wijnaldum has much to offer, and his debut goal against Southampton will have settled the nerves. He has European pedigree, and will certainly help Newcastle get back to were they should be.
4. Florian Thauvin - Olympique Marseille to Newcastle United (£12m)
Alongside Wijnaldum, Newcastle fans can be excited by the arrival of 22 year-old Florian Thauvin. One of the most creative players in Ligue 1 over the last season or so, he demonstrated his credentials in the 4-1 League Cup victory over Northampton, having a hand in all of Newcastle's goals. Ok, that was against a League Two side, but he was inches away from causing a shock at Old Trafford earlier in the season, and I'm sure he'll be terrorising defences up and down the country soon enough.
3. Dimitri Payet - Olympique Marseille to West Ham United (£12m)
It's surprised me that the man who was credited with creating the most chances of any in European football last season made the move to West Ham United, and for such a relatively small fee when compared to the fee generated by the man in second, Kevin De Bruyne. Though he is older, he is just 28, and will be coming into his prime in the coming years. He's already proven his worth at West Ham, creating a number of top quality chances, helping the Hammers win at both Anfield and The Emirates, and his set piece deliveries have defences worried. He looks an excellent signing.
2. Yohan Cabaye - Paris Saint Germain to Crystal Palace (£10m)
There aren't many signings each season that you have to wonder if you've just seen them - but this year we've had two, and it's been difficult to separate them. In the end, I've put Yohan Cabaye's move to Crystal Palace second. When the deal was announced, I thought this was not going to be beaten, with the commanding central midfielder a genius move in the market by Alan Pardew. However, the hair that split the two is the fact that Pardew has had the long-running relationship with Cabaye, having signed the Frenchman for Newcastle a few seasons ago. However, for Palace to attract players of the quality of Cabaye is outstanding, and for £10m is a deal that is more than value for money.
1. Xherdan Shaqiri - Inter Milan to Stoke City (£12m)
However, this one was absolutely out of the blue. Honestly, when Peter Crouch made the suggestion on Twitter back in June that Xherdan Shaqiri was considering a move to the Potteries, I genuinely thought he was joking. The diminutive Swiss has been at some of the world's most prestigious and celebrated clubs, and at just 23, is hardly past his best and looking to hang up his boots. Having struggled in his time at Inter Milan, he chose the move to the Premier League, and has already showed his value, providing an impressive assist from a free kick. He is perfectly built for the English league, and I'm sure will make a great addition to Stoke's more creative squad, now including the likes of Bojan, Afellay and Arnautovic - a far cry from the 'long ball team' of Rory Delap and Ricardo Fuller!
All in all, an impressive showing from some of the mid-table teams in the Premier League, attracting some enormous quality from around the globe. I think this is why the English league is the best in the world, and with the £5bn Sky TV deal to come into effect, teams are only going to have more money to play with in the coming years.
Saturday 12 September 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 2015 Window Top 10 Big Money Moves
And so, the summer chaos is over for another year. I'm not talking about the departure lounge of Manchester Airport, it is of course the transfer window. As part of my latest series, I wanted to review some of the biggest and best Premier League transactions this year, starting with the top 10 huge money moves.
It's been a record summer, with spending rising four per cent to £870m. As a result, we've got a strong top 10, with all of the deals highlighted in excess of £20m. With the new Sky TV deal, valued at a staggering £5bn, set to come into play next year, clubs have realised that they have money to play with, and as a result, are more willing to splash out the big bucks.
10. Pedro Rodriguez - Barcelona to Chelsea (£21m)
We kick off with Chelsea's big-name summer signing. Having struggled through their opening couple of games, claiming just one point, Jose Mourinho felt the time was right to make his move. Despite considerable reported interest from Manchester United, Chelsea met the buyout clause of Barcelona's Pedro, who had found himself less of a fixture at the Catalan club since the purchases of Neymar and Luis Suarez.
Cue merciless chants taunting United on the terraces, and rapid response from Louis van Gaal, claiming they never really wanted him - funny that! Meanwhile, the Spaniard, who has already won two Champions League titles and countless league crowns, has hit the ground running, with one goal and two assists in his first two games.
9. Heung-Min Son - Bayer Leverkusen to Tottenham Hotspur (£22m)
The first of our 'panic buys' to enter the list. Not unlike Chelsea, Spurs have had a rocky start to the new season, particularly struggling for goals. With Harry Kane having that typical 'second season syndrome', Tottenham swooped for Son, paying over the odds for a player that, while talented, has often struggled to be prolific. It remains to be seen whether this plays out well, but his debut will be eagerly anticipated by Spurs fans - but the last striker to cost in excess of £20m didn't really work out - Roberto Soldado.
8. Morgan Schneiderlin - Southampton to Manchester United (£24m)
Poor old Southampton. Their strong young side of a couple of years ago has been decimated, with Liverpool and Manchester United particularly guilty of stealing their players. This summer, it was the turn of Morgan Schneiderlin to depart, having come close to joining Spurs last year. At £24m, he seems extremely expensive, and he has hardly had the most auspicious start, frequently giving the ball away in the games at home to Tottenham and Newcastle. Nevertheless, it remains clear that Louis van Gaal considers him a ready-made replacement for the ageing Michael Carrick, and I expect to see the Dutchman continue to give him a chance to repay the outlay.
7. Nicolas Otamendi - Valencia to Manchester City (£28m upfront, will rise to £32m)
Another of Manchester United's failed transfer targets, and the first of Manchester City's big-money signings. Who would have thought that £28m would represent one of the club's cheaper purchases? Though a touch surprising, given the form of both Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala, Nicolas Otamendi adds further competition and strength in depth for City's European tilt, particularly given the typically ridiculous group the club has been given again.
It does have to be said, however, that one of the key reasons for the move to City is the transfer of Alvaro Negredo the other way last year. Expected cost in the region of £22m, Valencia have simply not got the money, so a part exchange was almost inevitable to come good on the money.
6. Roberto Firmino - Hoffenheim to Liverpool (£29m)
Liverpool have also been busy in the transfer window, financing the signing of Brazilian forward Roberto Firmino in June. The former Hoffenheim man has recently broken into the Brazil national team, popping up with some useful goals in recent friendlies, and seems to have the physical stature to cope with the rough and tumble of the Premier League. As with many of this year's moves, he looks overpriced by my estimation, and has failed to stamp his authority on the team in the opening weeks, but I do believe he adds something different to the Liverpool squad.
5. Memphis Depay - PSV Eindhoven to Manchester United (£31m)
The move finalised earlier than any other, Memphis Depay has had a considerable amount of time to gel with his new teammates, and you have to say it has worked. Of all of the United players so far this season, he has looked the most lively, and demonstrated his quality with his two-goal appearance at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League. Though he is often greedy and at times petulant, he is still young, and should learn quickly how to operate at a club the size of United. As a team, United has yet to hit top gear in the league, and you can be sure that Depay will be at the centre of activity once they do.
4. Christian Benteke - Aston Villa to Liverpool (£32.5m)
Funded by another big-money transfer (which if you don't already know about, I'll get to later, but more importantly, where have you been?!) Liverpool hit the buy-out clause in Christian Benteke's contract to secure his services. A proven goalscorer, Benteke has outperformed a relatively poor Aston Villa side over the last couple of years, and his suitors included a host of Europe's top teams. Though his opening few games for the Reds have been underwhelming, with one goal a relatively poor return at this stage, I am confident he will deliver, but it will be interesting to see how the Belgian deals with the enormous pressure that comes with the status of the club and the price tag over his head in the coming months.
3. Anthony Martial - AS Monaco to Manchester United (£36.6m - could rise to £58m)
Quite frankly, ridiculous. So left-field, they've disappeared off the pitch and out the stadium. I think you get my point. The very fact that Wayne Rooney had to ask who he was demonstrates the fact that this is not a £36.6m man, and his record is hardly justification either. Just eight goals in 31 Ligue 1 appearances last season does not strike of a prolific goalscorer, and with Rooney well and truly out of form, a goalscorer is exactly what United need. The fact that the deal was completed on deadline day reeks of a panic buy from Louis van Gaal following their defeat by Swansea, and with clauses including 25 international appearances and 25 goals over the next four seasons likely to cost the club another £15m, this could be an extremely expensive failure.
2. Raheem Sterling - Liverpool to Manchester City (£49m)
Arguably the most obvious move of the summer (although I would have put the sale of David de Gea to Real Madrid in this category!). Though a silly price, City had identified the player they required to progress their title tilt, and made their move early. With Sterling using every tactic in the book (and a few perhaps not in there!) to get his move, Liverpool handled the situation admirably, maintaining composure and ensuring they got the best deal for the current European Golden Boy. They certainly made City pay through the nose, but given the way the club has started this year, a lot of which is the injection of pace and width that Sterling provides, it does seem like a deal that may pay off for the Blues.
1. Kevin De Bruyne - VfL Wolfsburg to Manchester City (£54m)
And if City's start wasn't frightening enough for their rivals, they've brought in the man who created the most chances in any of Europe's top leagues last year. Though again for ridiculous money, Kevin de Bruyne is another exciting young prospect with proven pedigree, and will add to an already embarrassing forward line containing Silva, Aguero and Sterling. The Belgian has flourished in the Bundesliga, scoring 17 goals and assisting 29 more last season, and I have no doubt that he will do well in the Premier League. He's going to have to though, particularly for the eye-watering sum that was paid for him.
It's been a record summer, with spending rising four per cent to £870m. As a result, we've got a strong top 10, with all of the deals highlighted in excess of £20m. With the new Sky TV deal, valued at a staggering £5bn, set to come into play next year, clubs have realised that they have money to play with, and as a result, are more willing to splash out the big bucks.
10. Pedro Rodriguez - Barcelona to Chelsea (£21m)
We kick off with Chelsea's big-name summer signing. Having struggled through their opening couple of games, claiming just one point, Jose Mourinho felt the time was right to make his move. Despite considerable reported interest from Manchester United, Chelsea met the buyout clause of Barcelona's Pedro, who had found himself less of a fixture at the Catalan club since the purchases of Neymar and Luis Suarez.
Cue merciless chants taunting United on the terraces, and rapid response from Louis van Gaal, claiming they never really wanted him - funny that! Meanwhile, the Spaniard, who has already won two Champions League titles and countless league crowns, has hit the ground running, with one goal and two assists in his first two games.
9. Heung-Min Son - Bayer Leverkusen to Tottenham Hotspur (£22m)
The first of our 'panic buys' to enter the list. Not unlike Chelsea, Spurs have had a rocky start to the new season, particularly struggling for goals. With Harry Kane having that typical 'second season syndrome', Tottenham swooped for Son, paying over the odds for a player that, while talented, has often struggled to be prolific. It remains to be seen whether this plays out well, but his debut will be eagerly anticipated by Spurs fans - but the last striker to cost in excess of £20m didn't really work out - Roberto Soldado.
8. Morgan Schneiderlin - Southampton to Manchester United (£24m)
Poor old Southampton. Their strong young side of a couple of years ago has been decimated, with Liverpool and Manchester United particularly guilty of stealing their players. This summer, it was the turn of Morgan Schneiderlin to depart, having come close to joining Spurs last year. At £24m, he seems extremely expensive, and he has hardly had the most auspicious start, frequently giving the ball away in the games at home to Tottenham and Newcastle. Nevertheless, it remains clear that Louis van Gaal considers him a ready-made replacement for the ageing Michael Carrick, and I expect to see the Dutchman continue to give him a chance to repay the outlay.
7. Nicolas Otamendi - Valencia to Manchester City (£28m upfront, will rise to £32m)
Another of Manchester United's failed transfer targets, and the first of Manchester City's big-money signings. Who would have thought that £28m would represent one of the club's cheaper purchases? Though a touch surprising, given the form of both Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala, Nicolas Otamendi adds further competition and strength in depth for City's European tilt, particularly given the typically ridiculous group the club has been given again.
It does have to be said, however, that one of the key reasons for the move to City is the transfer of Alvaro Negredo the other way last year. Expected cost in the region of £22m, Valencia have simply not got the money, so a part exchange was almost inevitable to come good on the money.
6. Roberto Firmino - Hoffenheim to Liverpool (£29m)
Liverpool have also been busy in the transfer window, financing the signing of Brazilian forward Roberto Firmino in June. The former Hoffenheim man has recently broken into the Brazil national team, popping up with some useful goals in recent friendlies, and seems to have the physical stature to cope with the rough and tumble of the Premier League. As with many of this year's moves, he looks overpriced by my estimation, and has failed to stamp his authority on the team in the opening weeks, but I do believe he adds something different to the Liverpool squad.
5. Memphis Depay - PSV Eindhoven to Manchester United (£31m)
The move finalised earlier than any other, Memphis Depay has had a considerable amount of time to gel with his new teammates, and you have to say it has worked. Of all of the United players so far this season, he has looked the most lively, and demonstrated his quality with his two-goal appearance at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League. Though he is often greedy and at times petulant, he is still young, and should learn quickly how to operate at a club the size of United. As a team, United has yet to hit top gear in the league, and you can be sure that Depay will be at the centre of activity once they do.
4. Christian Benteke - Aston Villa to Liverpool (£32.5m)
Funded by another big-money transfer (which if you don't already know about, I'll get to later, but more importantly, where have you been?!) Liverpool hit the buy-out clause in Christian Benteke's contract to secure his services. A proven goalscorer, Benteke has outperformed a relatively poor Aston Villa side over the last couple of years, and his suitors included a host of Europe's top teams. Though his opening few games for the Reds have been underwhelming, with one goal a relatively poor return at this stage, I am confident he will deliver, but it will be interesting to see how the Belgian deals with the enormous pressure that comes with the status of the club and the price tag over his head in the coming months.
3. Anthony Martial - AS Monaco to Manchester United (£36.6m - could rise to £58m)
Quite frankly, ridiculous. So left-field, they've disappeared off the pitch and out the stadium. I think you get my point. The very fact that Wayne Rooney had to ask who he was demonstrates the fact that this is not a £36.6m man, and his record is hardly justification either. Just eight goals in 31 Ligue 1 appearances last season does not strike of a prolific goalscorer, and with Rooney well and truly out of form, a goalscorer is exactly what United need. The fact that the deal was completed on deadline day reeks of a panic buy from Louis van Gaal following their defeat by Swansea, and with clauses including 25 international appearances and 25 goals over the next four seasons likely to cost the club another £15m, this could be an extremely expensive failure.
2. Raheem Sterling - Liverpool to Manchester City (£49m)
Arguably the most obvious move of the summer (although I would have put the sale of David de Gea to Real Madrid in this category!). Though a silly price, City had identified the player they required to progress their title tilt, and made their move early. With Sterling using every tactic in the book (and a few perhaps not in there!) to get his move, Liverpool handled the situation admirably, maintaining composure and ensuring they got the best deal for the current European Golden Boy. They certainly made City pay through the nose, but given the way the club has started this year, a lot of which is the injection of pace and width that Sterling provides, it does seem like a deal that may pay off for the Blues.
1. Kevin De Bruyne - VfL Wolfsburg to Manchester City (£54m)
And if City's start wasn't frightening enough for their rivals, they've brought in the man who created the most chances in any of Europe's top leagues last year. Though again for ridiculous money, Kevin de Bruyne is another exciting young prospect with proven pedigree, and will add to an already embarrassing forward line containing Silva, Aguero and Sterling. The Belgian has flourished in the Bundesliga, scoring 17 goals and assisting 29 more last season, and I have no doubt that he will do well in the Premier League. He's going to have to though, particularly for the eye-watering sum that was paid for him.
Saturday 15 August 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Best Bargain Buys
As any football chief executive will undoubtedly tell you, laced among the big money moves and the anonymous acquisitions are the gems, the one in a million transfers. Though often not involving large sums, these buys didn't shake the footballing world when they happened, but would have far wider implications for the club, and the game, as time elapsed.
But, as with the other posts in this series, who makes my top 10? Who should be considered the best bargain buys?
10. Demba Ba - West Ham United to Newcastle United (Free, 2011)
Having made the move from Germany to East London in the January of 2011, Ba made an immediate impact for West Ham, scoring seven goals in 12 games to take the Hammers to the brink of survival. However, it was not enough, and Ba opted to leave for Newcastle. He would find his feet similarly quickly, scoring 16 goals in his first season as Newcastle narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification. After a strong start to the following season piqued the interest of Chelsea, Newcastle made a tasty £7m profit, in addition to their European appearance.
9. Alessandro Del Piero - Padova to Juventus (£2m, 1993)
Arguably the best example of a young signing coming to fruition for his new employers. At the age of 16, Alessandro Del Piero was an up and coming Padova youngster, and despite having only scored one goal in 14 games for his first club, Italian giants Juventus saw something in him. In the summer of 1993, they paid just £2m for the services of a player who would go on to become a club legend.
Over the next 10 years, Del Piero would score 208 goals in 513 appearances for The Old Lady, racking up six Serie A titles, a Coppa Italia and a Champions League victory. Such was his loyalty, he remained at Juve despite their relegation following the match-fixing scandal in 2006, helping the club reclaim its former glories.
8. Andrea Pirlo - AC Milan to Juventus (Free, 2011)
Juventus have also proven to be rather astute when it comes to signing elder statesmen too. In 2011, it was the general consensus that Andrea Pirlo was past his prime, having been part of the all-conquering team of the late 2000s that included the likes of Kaka, Nesta, Maldini and Shevchenko. However, Juventus, just like Del Piero, saw the potential that Pirlo could provide, and made an inspired free purchase. The midfielder would go on to claim four Serie A titles - double that achieved for AC Milan, in addition to leading Italy to the final of Euro 2012.
7. Frank Lampard - West Ham United to Chelsea (£11m, 2001)
To suggest that £11m is a bargain buy, particularly in 2001 when prices were comparatively low, is perhaps surprising. However, with the benefit of hindsight, I think there are few Chelsea, or indeed football fans that would disagree. Already with considerable experience, having played almost 150 games for the Hammers, scoring 24 goals, Lampard completed his £11m move to Chelsea. And, as they say, the rest is history. 429 matches and 147 goals later, Frank Lampard is the club's all time leading scorer, and second in the Premier League's all time assists table.
6. Cristiano Ronaldo - Sporting Lisbon to Manchester United (£12.24m, 2003)
Similarly to Frank Lampard, £12.24m seemingly makes it difficult to consider how this may become a bargain. However, while Ronaldo may not have the longevity to match Lampard, he certainly made one hell of an impact at Old Trafford. At times mercurial, and at times petulant, the Portuguese magician solidified himself as one of the best players in the world, scoring 84 goals in 196 games for Manchester United. It was therefore unsurprising when Real Madrid came in for the winger, giving United a £68m profit.
5. Joe Hart - Shrewsbury Town to Manchester City (£600,000, 2006)
When Manchester City, perennial Premier League strugglers, bought an unknown young English goalkeeper called Joe Hart in 2006, few could ever have predicted the way it would turn out. Through all of the changes surrounding the Blues in the last six years, one thing has remained constant - their number one. In his 236 games for the club, he has had many memorable moments, whether it's keeping City in games against Borussia Dortmund or Barcelona in the Champions League, or his iconic arms outstretched run around the Etihad to celebrate Sergio Aguero's last minute Premier League winner in 2012.
4. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Molde to Manchester United (£1.5m, 1996)
Bought in 1996, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was one of Sir Alex Ferguson's more underwhelming signings. Rather unknown and unproven, he was signed as a backup to Andy Cole and Eric Cantona. However, it was here he made his mark, quickly earning the reputation as a 'super-sub'. Though a moniker few footballers want, the Norwegian proved adept at scoring off the bench, scoring 18 in his opening season. He will perhaps be best remembered for his 1999 winning goal in the Champions League final against Bayern Munich, but in his 11 years at Old Trafford, he more than made back his £1.5m - scoring 91 goals in 235 games for United.
3. Gareth Bale - Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur (£5m, 2007)
Coming from Southampton's famed youth system, much was expected from what was a flying Welsh left back. Bought by Spurs in 2007, Bale always looked to possess talent, but it was only after a number of years in North London that the Welshman demonstrated his full potential. Having moved position into midfield to help Spurs into the Champions League, Bale terrorised full-backs across Europe, particularly on one night in Milan, where he put on a remarkable display in a 4-3 defeat to Inter. He picked up where he left off the following year, claiming the PFA Player of the Year Award, before a world record move to Real Madrid, earning Spurs £80m profit.
2. Thierry Henry - Juventus to Arsenal (£11m, 1999)
There are very few transfers that radically change the history of a football club, but when they do, you have to consider them a bargain, almost regardless of price. When Thierry Henry arrived at Highbury, Arsenal were a side on the back foot. Having lost the Premier League title to Manchester United, they signed the Frenchman who, disillusioned at Juventus, was designed to play as a central striker. Though £11m seemed steep at the time, Henry has surpassed everyone's expectations. In the following eight years, he led the club to two league titles, including the iconic 'Invincibles' season, three FA Cups and a Champions League final. Despite his short stay, he scored 174 goals in 254 games, making him Arsenal's all-time record goalscorer.
1. Peter Schmeichel - Brondby to Manchester United (£500,000, 1991)
Simply the greatest goalkeeper of the Premier League era, and to think that he cost just half a million beggars belief. It's not even like Schmeichel was particularly young - he was 27 when Ferguson brought the Dane to Old Trafford. However, Schmeichel proved the bedrock for the successes of the Red Devils through the 1990s, and arguably kept Ferguson in a job in the early years. In 292 games for United, Schmeichel won five league titles, three FA Cups, a league cup and captained United to the Treble in 1999.
So, as we can see, for every misguided and inflated transfer fee that Sir Alex Ferguson paid over his decades in charge of Manchester United, he found a number of gems, which formed the heart of his dominant side in the 1990s and 2000s.
Club legends, as one would expect, are almost impossible to predict on purchase, but is there anyone bought so far that has the potential? Perhaps not the big money transfers of the likes of Raheem Sterling or Memphis Depay, but certainly mid-range signings like Georginio Wijnaldum or Xherdan Shaqiri have promise.
But, as with the other posts in this series, who makes my top 10? Who should be considered the best bargain buys?
10. Demba Ba - West Ham United to Newcastle United (Free, 2011)
Having made the move from Germany to East London in the January of 2011, Ba made an immediate impact for West Ham, scoring seven goals in 12 games to take the Hammers to the brink of survival. However, it was not enough, and Ba opted to leave for Newcastle. He would find his feet similarly quickly, scoring 16 goals in his first season as Newcastle narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification. After a strong start to the following season piqued the interest of Chelsea, Newcastle made a tasty £7m profit, in addition to their European appearance.
9. Alessandro Del Piero - Padova to Juventus (£2m, 1993)
Arguably the best example of a young signing coming to fruition for his new employers. At the age of 16, Alessandro Del Piero was an up and coming Padova youngster, and despite having only scored one goal in 14 games for his first club, Italian giants Juventus saw something in him. In the summer of 1993, they paid just £2m for the services of a player who would go on to become a club legend.
Over the next 10 years, Del Piero would score 208 goals in 513 appearances for The Old Lady, racking up six Serie A titles, a Coppa Italia and a Champions League victory. Such was his loyalty, he remained at Juve despite their relegation following the match-fixing scandal in 2006, helping the club reclaim its former glories.
8. Andrea Pirlo - AC Milan to Juventus (Free, 2011)
Juventus have also proven to be rather astute when it comes to signing elder statesmen too. In 2011, it was the general consensus that Andrea Pirlo was past his prime, having been part of the all-conquering team of the late 2000s that included the likes of Kaka, Nesta, Maldini and Shevchenko. However, Juventus, just like Del Piero, saw the potential that Pirlo could provide, and made an inspired free purchase. The midfielder would go on to claim four Serie A titles - double that achieved for AC Milan, in addition to leading Italy to the final of Euro 2012.
7. Frank Lampard - West Ham United to Chelsea (£11m, 2001)
To suggest that £11m is a bargain buy, particularly in 2001 when prices were comparatively low, is perhaps surprising. However, with the benefit of hindsight, I think there are few Chelsea, or indeed football fans that would disagree. Already with considerable experience, having played almost 150 games for the Hammers, scoring 24 goals, Lampard completed his £11m move to Chelsea. And, as they say, the rest is history. 429 matches and 147 goals later, Frank Lampard is the club's all time leading scorer, and second in the Premier League's all time assists table.
6. Cristiano Ronaldo - Sporting Lisbon to Manchester United (£12.24m, 2003)
Similarly to Frank Lampard, £12.24m seemingly makes it difficult to consider how this may become a bargain. However, while Ronaldo may not have the longevity to match Lampard, he certainly made one hell of an impact at Old Trafford. At times mercurial, and at times petulant, the Portuguese magician solidified himself as one of the best players in the world, scoring 84 goals in 196 games for Manchester United. It was therefore unsurprising when Real Madrid came in for the winger, giving United a £68m profit.
5. Joe Hart - Shrewsbury Town to Manchester City (£600,000, 2006)
When Manchester City, perennial Premier League strugglers, bought an unknown young English goalkeeper called Joe Hart in 2006, few could ever have predicted the way it would turn out. Through all of the changes surrounding the Blues in the last six years, one thing has remained constant - their number one. In his 236 games for the club, he has had many memorable moments, whether it's keeping City in games against Borussia Dortmund or Barcelona in the Champions League, or his iconic arms outstretched run around the Etihad to celebrate Sergio Aguero's last minute Premier League winner in 2012.
4. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Molde to Manchester United (£1.5m, 1996)
Bought in 1996, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was one of Sir Alex Ferguson's more underwhelming signings. Rather unknown and unproven, he was signed as a backup to Andy Cole and Eric Cantona. However, it was here he made his mark, quickly earning the reputation as a 'super-sub'. Though a moniker few footballers want, the Norwegian proved adept at scoring off the bench, scoring 18 in his opening season. He will perhaps be best remembered for his 1999 winning goal in the Champions League final against Bayern Munich, but in his 11 years at Old Trafford, he more than made back his £1.5m - scoring 91 goals in 235 games for United.
3. Gareth Bale - Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur (£5m, 2007)
Coming from Southampton's famed youth system, much was expected from what was a flying Welsh left back. Bought by Spurs in 2007, Bale always looked to possess talent, but it was only after a number of years in North London that the Welshman demonstrated his full potential. Having moved position into midfield to help Spurs into the Champions League, Bale terrorised full-backs across Europe, particularly on one night in Milan, where he put on a remarkable display in a 4-3 defeat to Inter. He picked up where he left off the following year, claiming the PFA Player of the Year Award, before a world record move to Real Madrid, earning Spurs £80m profit.
2. Thierry Henry - Juventus to Arsenal (£11m, 1999)
There are very few transfers that radically change the history of a football club, but when they do, you have to consider them a bargain, almost regardless of price. When Thierry Henry arrived at Highbury, Arsenal were a side on the back foot. Having lost the Premier League title to Manchester United, they signed the Frenchman who, disillusioned at Juventus, was designed to play as a central striker. Though £11m seemed steep at the time, Henry has surpassed everyone's expectations. In the following eight years, he led the club to two league titles, including the iconic 'Invincibles' season, three FA Cups and a Champions League final. Despite his short stay, he scored 174 goals in 254 games, making him Arsenal's all-time record goalscorer.
1. Peter Schmeichel - Brondby to Manchester United (£500,000, 1991)
Simply the greatest goalkeeper of the Premier League era, and to think that he cost just half a million beggars belief. It's not even like Schmeichel was particularly young - he was 27 when Ferguson brought the Dane to Old Trafford. However, Schmeichel proved the bedrock for the successes of the Red Devils through the 1990s, and arguably kept Ferguson in a job in the early years. In 292 games for United, Schmeichel won five league titles, three FA Cups, a league cup and captained United to the Treble in 1999.
So, as we can see, for every misguided and inflated transfer fee that Sir Alex Ferguson paid over his decades in charge of Manchester United, he found a number of gems, which formed the heart of his dominant side in the 1990s and 2000s.
Club legends, as one would expect, are almost impossible to predict on purchase, but is there anyone bought so far that has the potential? Perhaps not the big money transfers of the likes of Raheem Sterling or Memphis Depay, but certainly mid-range signings like Georginio Wijnaldum or Xherdan Shaqiri have promise.
Sunday 2 August 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Big Money Flops
With the recent commercialisation of global football, money has rarely been an issue for the largest teams. As a result of this, we've seen a period of valuation inflation when it comes to transfers, with some enormous sums of money flying around. Some of these make my 'Transfers that Shook the World' post, while others sneak under the radar. In addition, sometimes the money is justified by performances (for instance, Ronaldo's £80m doesn't seem too outrageous any more!), while others end up being an enormous waste of money.
But which are the biggest waste of money? And are there any trends that we can see when it comes to clubs and overpaying?
10. Robbie Keane - Tottenham Hotspur to Liverpool (2008, £20.3m)
A great example of a big money transfer dropping under the radar. In 2008, Robbie Keane made the move away from Spurs, a club he'd spent the majority of his career to that point with. Daniel Levy, as he so often does, managed to get an exceptional deal for the North London club, costing Liverpool £20.8m for the Irish international. However, the proven goalscorer proved to not be so prolific in red, waiting 11 games for his first Liverpool goal. He went on to only score five goals in 19 games for the side, though they did manage to recoup much of the fee they paid for the striker when he returned to Spurs just six months later.
9. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (2014, £59.8m)
Though the Argentine made the back end of my 'Transfers that Shook the World' post, he has failed to make the desired impact. He ends up lower down this list because of the fact that he's only been there a year, and I tend to give players a second season to take effect. However, with it looking increasingly likely that di Maria is on his way out of Old Trafford, the four goals and ten assists provided last season just isn't worth the money paid.
8. Dimitar Berbatov - Tottenham Hotspur to Manchester United (2008, £30m)
Back on that crazy deadline day in Manchester in 2008, it was the £30m signing of Dimitar Berbatov that paled into significance following the Robinho saga across the road. Manchester United, despite the wealth of attacking talent at their disposal, with the likes of Ronaldo, Rooney and Tevez all in form, dipped into their coffers to add another proven Premier League goalscorer. However, the big Bulgarian was always on the periphery, failing to rediscover his form and finding his most successful moments at Old Trafford in the cup competitions.
7. Diego - Werder Bremen to Juventus (2009, £23.8m)
A player who was among my favourites at Werder Bremen in my teenage years, Diego set the Bundesliga alight with his guile, creativity and flair, leaving many of the world's top clubs vying for his signature. Italian giants Juventus won the race, with the Brazilian signing for £23.8m in 2009. However, in 33 games, he managed just 5 goals, and was deemed to be surplus to requirements by the end of the following season, recouping just £12m when he moved back to Germany with Wolfsburg.
6. Mario Balotelli - AC Milan to Liverpool (2014, £15m)
Why always him? The enigmatic Italian had the world at his feet when he broke onto the scene in 2008 at the age of just 17, but his childish attitude garnered him a reputation both in Italy and in Manchester. However, there was no doubting his ability, and Brendan Rodgers looked to have pulled off a masterstroke when he signed Super Mario for just £15m last summer. To be fair to Mario, he certainly had seemed to work harder for his team, and improved his attitude, however, he just didn't have the goals. Mocked repeatedly for failing to score throughout last year, his days look numbered following the arrival of Christian Benteke last week. How much they can get for him remains a mystery.
5. Alberto Aquilani - AS Roma to Liverpool (2009, £17m)
AS Roma's 'Little Prince', seen as the natural successor to club legends Francesco Totti and Daniele De Rossi, made the difficult decision to leave his home town club in 2009, opting for Merseyside in a £17m deal. However, a series of injury problems and inconsistent form limited his opportunities in the team, with the Italian making just 18 appearances over an unsuccessful three year period while making loan moves back to Italy with Juventus and AC Milan, before a permanent free transfer to Fiorentina in 2012.
4. Juan Sebastien Veron - Inter Milan to Manchester United (2001, £28.1m)
The Argentine world beater's £28.1m move in 2001 was a club record transfer at the time, and underlined United's intentions to create their own Galacticos. However, it was not to be. Unlike the Italian game, Veron struggled to get to grips with the speed and physicality of the Premier League, scoring just seven times in 51 appearances for United. Such was his failure, Sir Alex Ferguson, who had publicly defender Veron on numerous occasions during the following season, sold him to Chelsea for a cut-price £15m in 2003.
3. Roque Santa Cruz - Blackburn Rovers to Manchester City (2009, £17.5m)
Very much like the signing of Dimitar Berbatov, Roque Santa Cruz was brought into a Manchester City squad already containing the likes of Carlos Tevez, Emmanuel Adebayor and Robinho. However, even worse, they had signed both Tevez and Adebayor for large sums in the same summer, making the purchase of Santa Cruz even more pointless. Though certainly only bought as Mark Hughes was his manager at Blackburn Rovers, the Paraguayan only managed three goals in an appalling 20 game stay at The Etihad, before being farmed out to Blackburn and Malaga on loan, before moving permanently to the latter in 2013.
2. Kaka - AC Milan to Real Madrid (2009, £55m)
Kaka, arguably the world's best player in the mid-2000s, leading AC Milan almost single-handedly to a Champions League title in 2007, became the first of the new Galacticos signed in 2009, being joined by Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema. However, he never hit the same heights as he did in Italy, scoring 23 in an injury hit four seasons, which saw the Brazilian make just 85 appearances before rejoining AC Milan.
1. Andriy Shevchenko - AC Milan to Chelsea (2006, £30.8m)
Another world class forward player from AC Milan makes a disastrous move abroad for an astronomical sum - I guess this proves that Silvio Berlusconi got something right, cashing out at the best moment. Ballon d'Or winner Andriy Shevchenko made the move to London in 2006 for £30m, joining up with Jose Mourinho's two-time champions as Roman Abramovic targeted the Champions League title. However, nine goals is not enough for just one season for a top striker, never mind being spread across three years. Every goal scored by the Ukrainian at Chelsea cost over £3m, which everyone would agree is expensive!
So what trends can we see from these ten? Firstly, it seems that for all of his good signings (Vidic, van Nistelrooy and Ronaldo etc.) Alex Ferguson also wasted an awful lot of money, and Louis van Gaal appears set to do the same. In contrast, both AC Milan and Tottenham Hotspur seem good at getting the best deals for their players, in addition to selling them at the right time - just as they go off the boil.
And are we likely to see any big-money flops this summer? Of the transfers already done, it seems unlikely that either Arda Turan or Arturo Vidal will fail to live up to their valuations, while though it pains me to say it, Raheem Sterling may well struggle to meet the £49m valuation placed on him. Similarly, £60m and £70m valuations for Kevin De Bruyne and Paul Pogba also runs the risk of making this list, as they would have to go some to make the deal worthwhile.
Nevertheless, it's worth noting that a high profile failure can have a disastrous impact on a player's career - will Angel di Maria be able to make his seemingly inevitable move to Paris Saint Germain work to be the exception to the rule?
But which are the biggest waste of money? And are there any trends that we can see when it comes to clubs and overpaying?
10. Robbie Keane - Tottenham Hotspur to Liverpool (2008, £20.3m)
A great example of a big money transfer dropping under the radar. In 2008, Robbie Keane made the move away from Spurs, a club he'd spent the majority of his career to that point with. Daniel Levy, as he so often does, managed to get an exceptional deal for the North London club, costing Liverpool £20.8m for the Irish international. However, the proven goalscorer proved to not be so prolific in red, waiting 11 games for his first Liverpool goal. He went on to only score five goals in 19 games for the side, though they did manage to recoup much of the fee they paid for the striker when he returned to Spurs just six months later.
9. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (2014, £59.8m)
Though the Argentine made the back end of my 'Transfers that Shook the World' post, he has failed to make the desired impact. He ends up lower down this list because of the fact that he's only been there a year, and I tend to give players a second season to take effect. However, with it looking increasingly likely that di Maria is on his way out of Old Trafford, the four goals and ten assists provided last season just isn't worth the money paid.
8. Dimitar Berbatov - Tottenham Hotspur to Manchester United (2008, £30m)
Back on that crazy deadline day in Manchester in 2008, it was the £30m signing of Dimitar Berbatov that paled into significance following the Robinho saga across the road. Manchester United, despite the wealth of attacking talent at their disposal, with the likes of Ronaldo, Rooney and Tevez all in form, dipped into their coffers to add another proven Premier League goalscorer. However, the big Bulgarian was always on the periphery, failing to rediscover his form and finding his most successful moments at Old Trafford in the cup competitions.
7. Diego - Werder Bremen to Juventus (2009, £23.8m)
A player who was among my favourites at Werder Bremen in my teenage years, Diego set the Bundesliga alight with his guile, creativity and flair, leaving many of the world's top clubs vying for his signature. Italian giants Juventus won the race, with the Brazilian signing for £23.8m in 2009. However, in 33 games, he managed just 5 goals, and was deemed to be surplus to requirements by the end of the following season, recouping just £12m when he moved back to Germany with Wolfsburg.
6. Mario Balotelli - AC Milan to Liverpool (2014, £15m)
Why always him? The enigmatic Italian had the world at his feet when he broke onto the scene in 2008 at the age of just 17, but his childish attitude garnered him a reputation both in Italy and in Manchester. However, there was no doubting his ability, and Brendan Rodgers looked to have pulled off a masterstroke when he signed Super Mario for just £15m last summer. To be fair to Mario, he certainly had seemed to work harder for his team, and improved his attitude, however, he just didn't have the goals. Mocked repeatedly for failing to score throughout last year, his days look numbered following the arrival of Christian Benteke last week. How much they can get for him remains a mystery.
5. Alberto Aquilani - AS Roma to Liverpool (2009, £17m)
AS Roma's 'Little Prince', seen as the natural successor to club legends Francesco Totti and Daniele De Rossi, made the difficult decision to leave his home town club in 2009, opting for Merseyside in a £17m deal. However, a series of injury problems and inconsistent form limited his opportunities in the team, with the Italian making just 18 appearances over an unsuccessful three year period while making loan moves back to Italy with Juventus and AC Milan, before a permanent free transfer to Fiorentina in 2012.
4. Juan Sebastien Veron - Inter Milan to Manchester United (2001, £28.1m)
The Argentine world beater's £28.1m move in 2001 was a club record transfer at the time, and underlined United's intentions to create their own Galacticos. However, it was not to be. Unlike the Italian game, Veron struggled to get to grips with the speed and physicality of the Premier League, scoring just seven times in 51 appearances for United. Such was his failure, Sir Alex Ferguson, who had publicly defender Veron on numerous occasions during the following season, sold him to Chelsea for a cut-price £15m in 2003.
3. Roque Santa Cruz - Blackburn Rovers to Manchester City (2009, £17.5m)
Very much like the signing of Dimitar Berbatov, Roque Santa Cruz was brought into a Manchester City squad already containing the likes of Carlos Tevez, Emmanuel Adebayor and Robinho. However, even worse, they had signed both Tevez and Adebayor for large sums in the same summer, making the purchase of Santa Cruz even more pointless. Though certainly only bought as Mark Hughes was his manager at Blackburn Rovers, the Paraguayan only managed three goals in an appalling 20 game stay at The Etihad, before being farmed out to Blackburn and Malaga on loan, before moving permanently to the latter in 2013.
2. Kaka - AC Milan to Real Madrid (2009, £55m)
Kaka, arguably the world's best player in the mid-2000s, leading AC Milan almost single-handedly to a Champions League title in 2007, became the first of the new Galacticos signed in 2009, being joined by Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema. However, he never hit the same heights as he did in Italy, scoring 23 in an injury hit four seasons, which saw the Brazilian make just 85 appearances before rejoining AC Milan.
1. Andriy Shevchenko - AC Milan to Chelsea (2006, £30.8m)
Another world class forward player from AC Milan makes a disastrous move abroad for an astronomical sum - I guess this proves that Silvio Berlusconi got something right, cashing out at the best moment. Ballon d'Or winner Andriy Shevchenko made the move to London in 2006 for £30m, joining up with Jose Mourinho's two-time champions as Roman Abramovic targeted the Champions League title. However, nine goals is not enough for just one season for a top striker, never mind being spread across three years. Every goal scored by the Ukrainian at Chelsea cost over £3m, which everyone would agree is expensive!
So what trends can we see from these ten? Firstly, it seems that for all of his good signings (Vidic, van Nistelrooy and Ronaldo etc.) Alex Ferguson also wasted an awful lot of money, and Louis van Gaal appears set to do the same. In contrast, both AC Milan and Tottenham Hotspur seem good at getting the best deals for their players, in addition to selling them at the right time - just as they go off the boil.
And are we likely to see any big-money flops this summer? Of the transfers already done, it seems unlikely that either Arda Turan or Arturo Vidal will fail to live up to their valuations, while though it pains me to say it, Raheem Sterling may well struggle to meet the £49m valuation placed on him. Similarly, £60m and £70m valuations for Kevin De Bruyne and Paul Pogba also runs the risk of making this list, as they would have to go some to make the deal worthwhile.
Nevertheless, it's worth noting that a high profile failure can have a disastrous impact on a player's career - will Angel di Maria be able to make his seemingly inevitable move to Paris Saint Germain work to be the exception to the rule?
Sunday 19 July 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Moves That Shook The World
Every summer usually has a transfer that defines the period. However, some transfers transcend the boundaries of what is expected, or even what was previously thought possible, truly shaking the world of football. In this post, I'll outline my top 10, before looking at the mega-moves that we may see this August.
10. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (£59.6m, 2014)
The first in my list is the first in the enormous money moves that I've looked at, and makes the list primarily because of the sum paid. Seen as one of the world's best wingers, di Maria starred at the World Cup in Brazil, helping Argentina to the final. With Manchester United in a slump following a poor season, a statement of intent was required - step forward di Maria for an eye-watering sum.
9. Neymar - Santos to Barcelona (£50m (to date), 2013)
The most sought-after young talent in the world at the time, Neymar opted for the Catalans over a number of clubs, leaving his beloved Santos for a reported £50m. This transfer would have serious repercussions, however, with contract irregularities reported set to turn this into a world record move - an incredible £116m quoted as the total potential price.
8. Alan Shearer - Blackburn Rovers to Newcastle United (£15m, 1996)
While it's not really the fee that means that Alan Shearer's transfer makes my list, it's the context. In 1996, the English transfer record stood at a metre (by today's standards) £8.5m, paid by Liverpool to Nottingham Forest for striker Stan Collymore. However, having won the Premier League title with Blackburn, England's number 9 made the move to his hometown club, with the Geordie almost doubling that record overnight, and demonstrating to the world the spending power that English clubs have.
7. Sol Campbell - Tottenham Hotspur to Arsenal (Free, 2001)
Again, not a transfer I'm picking on fee, but on context. It's extremely rare to see players move directly from one club to its direct local rivals, particularly in the higher division where the rivalry is that little more intense. Sol Campbell, a key part of the Spurs team of the 1990s, made the move across North London to Arsenal, and in so doing, cemented his Spurs legacy as the ultimate 'Judas'.
6. Luis Suarez - Liverpool to Barcelona (£75m, 2014)
While the £75m price tag you may assume is the reason for this to be in this list, it's actually not the only explanation. What makes this move most surprising, particularly for the level of investment made, is that Suarez had received a three month ban from all footballing activity for his bite on Giorgio Chiellini just a matter of weeks earlier. Nevertheless, this did not deter Barcelona, and Suarez made his move last summer for the inflated price.
5. Carlos Tevez - Manchester United to Manchester City (£25.5m, 2009)
Arguably the most controversial move across a city in English footballing history, and one that spawned an ingenious marketing campaign 'Welcome to Manchester' (if of course, you're a Manchester City fan and therefore a true Mancunian). Carlos Tevez had enjoyed a semi-successful loan spell at Manchester United in 2007/2008, before making the move to the heavily spending Blues the following summer. The chants of praise were soon changed to something slightly more offensive and insulting over in Salford!
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - Manchester United to Real Madrid (£80m, 2009)
Perhaps a few of you will be surprised by the fact that I've only rated this in at number four in my list, but I'll explain my decision. Unlike a number of other big money transfers, where the player either doesn't really justify the price, or the move is a surprise in the first place, neither is the case in terms of Ronaldo. Having made it perfectly clear that he wanted to leave Manchester United, it was equally clear that he would command an enormous sum. Therefore, while it was a transfer that shook the world, it was perhaps not as much of a shock as others.
3. Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m, 2008)
Rewind to 2007. Manchester City had just narrowly avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Enter first Thaksin Shinawatra and then the Abu Dhabi United Group on transfer deadline day 2008. With manager Mark Hughes on the golf course, City needed to make a statement of intent. And boy, did they, stealing Real Madrid striker Robinho from under the noses of Chelsea for a British record £32.5m.
2. Luis Figo - Barcelona to Real Madrid (£37m, 2000)
If we thought Carlos Tevez's move from United to City was acrimonious, then we've clearly forgotten Luis Figo's decision to move across the Clasico divide, with Barcelona selling their star man to Real Madrid in the summer of 2000. Pure chaos ensued, with the Portuguese's first return to the Nou Camp seeing him so badly abused that he stopped taking corners. Pelted with bottles, lighters and even a pig's head, Figo showed incredible courage, but also, why it may not be a logical move between close rivals - especially in Spain!
1. Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£89m, 2013)
Though this move was not a considerable surprise, if you'd have asked Spurs fans the number it would have taken to prise Gareth Bale away from them, I think only the most hardcore of fans would have suggested a world record £90m. Compared to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the Welshman is nowhere, but the potential, and David Levy's notorious negotiation skills, meant that the fee inflated significantly.
With this summer window in full swing, are there any transfers that could shock the world of football enough to make this list? Raheem Sterling's £49m move to Manchester City certainly acts as a contender, but is there anything that looks like happening elsewhere?
The significant rumour mill surrounds Juventus wonder kid Paul Pogba. Both Manchester City and Barcelona have been linked with £60-70m moves for the Frenchman, which would certainly qualify as the defining move of this window. How likely this is is uncertain, but from a personal perspective, it would be great to see him in a blue shirt come September.
10. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (£59.6m, 2014)
The first in my list is the first in the enormous money moves that I've looked at, and makes the list primarily because of the sum paid. Seen as one of the world's best wingers, di Maria starred at the World Cup in Brazil, helping Argentina to the final. With Manchester United in a slump following a poor season, a statement of intent was required - step forward di Maria for an eye-watering sum.
9. Neymar - Santos to Barcelona (£50m (to date), 2013)
The most sought-after young talent in the world at the time, Neymar opted for the Catalans over a number of clubs, leaving his beloved Santos for a reported £50m. This transfer would have serious repercussions, however, with contract irregularities reported set to turn this into a world record move - an incredible £116m quoted as the total potential price.
8. Alan Shearer - Blackburn Rovers to Newcastle United (£15m, 1996)
While it's not really the fee that means that Alan Shearer's transfer makes my list, it's the context. In 1996, the English transfer record stood at a metre (by today's standards) £8.5m, paid by Liverpool to Nottingham Forest for striker Stan Collymore. However, having won the Premier League title with Blackburn, England's number 9 made the move to his hometown club, with the Geordie almost doubling that record overnight, and demonstrating to the world the spending power that English clubs have.
7. Sol Campbell - Tottenham Hotspur to Arsenal (Free, 2001)
Again, not a transfer I'm picking on fee, but on context. It's extremely rare to see players move directly from one club to its direct local rivals, particularly in the higher division where the rivalry is that little more intense. Sol Campbell, a key part of the Spurs team of the 1990s, made the move across North London to Arsenal, and in so doing, cemented his Spurs legacy as the ultimate 'Judas'.
6. Luis Suarez - Liverpool to Barcelona (£75m, 2014)
While the £75m price tag you may assume is the reason for this to be in this list, it's actually not the only explanation. What makes this move most surprising, particularly for the level of investment made, is that Suarez had received a three month ban from all footballing activity for his bite on Giorgio Chiellini just a matter of weeks earlier. Nevertheless, this did not deter Barcelona, and Suarez made his move last summer for the inflated price.
5. Carlos Tevez - Manchester United to Manchester City (£25.5m, 2009)
Arguably the most controversial move across a city in English footballing history, and one that spawned an ingenious marketing campaign 'Welcome to Manchester' (if of course, you're a Manchester City fan and therefore a true Mancunian). Carlos Tevez had enjoyed a semi-successful loan spell at Manchester United in 2007/2008, before making the move to the heavily spending Blues the following summer. The chants of praise were soon changed to something slightly more offensive and insulting over in Salford!
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - Manchester United to Real Madrid (£80m, 2009)
Perhaps a few of you will be surprised by the fact that I've only rated this in at number four in my list, but I'll explain my decision. Unlike a number of other big money transfers, where the player either doesn't really justify the price, or the move is a surprise in the first place, neither is the case in terms of Ronaldo. Having made it perfectly clear that he wanted to leave Manchester United, it was equally clear that he would command an enormous sum. Therefore, while it was a transfer that shook the world, it was perhaps not as much of a shock as others.
3. Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m, 2008)
Rewind to 2007. Manchester City had just narrowly avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Enter first Thaksin Shinawatra and then the Abu Dhabi United Group on transfer deadline day 2008. With manager Mark Hughes on the golf course, City needed to make a statement of intent. And boy, did they, stealing Real Madrid striker Robinho from under the noses of Chelsea for a British record £32.5m.
2. Luis Figo - Barcelona to Real Madrid (£37m, 2000)
If we thought Carlos Tevez's move from United to City was acrimonious, then we've clearly forgotten Luis Figo's decision to move across the Clasico divide, with Barcelona selling their star man to Real Madrid in the summer of 2000. Pure chaos ensued, with the Portuguese's first return to the Nou Camp seeing him so badly abused that he stopped taking corners. Pelted with bottles, lighters and even a pig's head, Figo showed incredible courage, but also, why it may not be a logical move between close rivals - especially in Spain!
1. Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£89m, 2013)
Though this move was not a considerable surprise, if you'd have asked Spurs fans the number it would have taken to prise Gareth Bale away from them, I think only the most hardcore of fans would have suggested a world record £90m. Compared to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the Welshman is nowhere, but the potential, and David Levy's notorious negotiation skills, meant that the fee inflated significantly.
With this summer window in full swing, are there any transfers that could shock the world of football enough to make this list? Raheem Sterling's £49m move to Manchester City certainly acts as a contender, but is there anything that looks like happening elsewhere?
The significant rumour mill surrounds Juventus wonder kid Paul Pogba. Both Manchester City and Barcelona have been linked with £60-70m moves for the Frenchman, which would certainly qualify as the defining move of this window. How likely this is is uncertain, but from a personal perspective, it would be great to see him in a blue shirt come September.
Sunday 5 July 2015
Summer Transfer Window Series: My Predictions
As the footballing merry-go-round begins to kick into gear for another year, English football clubs have never been in as strong a position to spend money. With the new £5bn football rights deal set to take effect from next year, clubs know that their revenues are going to be boosted come next summer. As a result, many can spend without fear of additional UEFA penalties thanks to the controversial Financial Fair Play regulations. With each of last season's top four expected to empty their bank accounts in the coming months, this summer is going to be interesting.
But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.
Arsenal
In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.
Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)
Aston Villa
In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)
Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)
Bournemouth
In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)
Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.
Crystal Palace
In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),
Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.
Chelsea
In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)
Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)
Everton
In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)
Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.
Leicester
In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)
Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.
Liverpool
In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)
Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).
Man City
In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)
Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!
Man Utd
In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)
Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).
Newcastle
In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).
Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.
Norwich
In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)
Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.
Southampton
In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)
Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.
Stoke
In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).
Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.
Sunderland
In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)
Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.
Swansea
In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)
Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.
Tottenham
In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).
Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.
Watford
In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)
Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.
West Brom
In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)
Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.
West Ham
In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)
Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.
Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m
Total Income: £266.3m
Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m
But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.
Arsenal
In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.
Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)
Aston Villa
In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)
Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)
Bournemouth
In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)
Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.
Crystal Palace
In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),
Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.
Chelsea
In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)
Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)
Everton
In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)
Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.
Leicester
In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)
Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.
Liverpool
In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)
Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).
Man City
In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)
Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!
Man Utd
In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)
Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).
Newcastle
In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).
Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.
Norwich
In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)
Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.
Southampton
In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)
Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.
Stoke
In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).
Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.
Sunderland
In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)
Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.
Swansea
In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)
Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.
Tottenham
In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).
Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.
Watford
In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)
Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.
West Brom
In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)
Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.
West Ham
In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)
Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.
Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m
Total Income: £266.3m
Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m
Tuesday 30 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Who's Heading Down? (Relegation)
And so I come to my final post in this series. After discussions around the title race and the battle for a Champions League spot, I now come to the one that often ends up being the least predictable: relegation. Last year was no exception, with Newcastle coming perilously close to the drop after a simply horrific run of form towards the end of the season. However, it's my job in these posts to attempt to predict them based solely on the fixtures, so let's give it a go.
Before we start, I'm going to do a quick run through my choices for the sides that will be contesting the bottom three places. In my opinion, it all comes down to six teams. As at least one relegated side has been relegated for all bar two seasons this century, I'll include all three of the newly promoted sides, as well as others I believe to be vulnerable to relegation this year, namely Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom. You may have noticed that I've not included either Newcastle or Aston Villa, both of whom only narrowly evaded relegation last season. However, Aston Villa's upturn in form towards the back end of the season, along with the law of averages that suggests that Newcastle simply can't collapse in the same way they did last season, means that I don't believe either will be seriously fighting the drop this year.
So, now we've got our constituents, what do the fixtures say? Starting with the opening five, we can see an interesting variety of difficulties when it comes to fixtures. For instance, compare the opening fixtures for West Brom - Manchester City (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (a) and Southampton (h) - with Sunderland's - Leicester (a), Norwich (h), Swansea (h), Aston Villa (a), Tottenham (h). Though the Black Cats do have some difficult games, there is nothing like the two top sides in the league and a difficult away trip to Stoke! Leicester's games are not too dissimilar to Sunderland's, with the starter against the North East club, before games at West Ham, at home to Spurs, away at Bournemouth and at home to Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, our new Premier League sides all have mediocre starts, with both challenging and easier games in their opening five. Watford have away games at Everton and Manchester City, as well as hosting West Brom, Southampton and Swansea. Norwich have a trip to St Mary's to contend with, in addition to hosting Stoke. Finally, Bournemouth's first season in the top flight sees them travel to Anfield, Norwich and West Ham, as well as hosting Leicester and Aston Villa.
In my opinion, the order is relatively simple - West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Sunderland.
As we move towards Christmas, the fixtures get brutal, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the relegation battle. For example, Leicester may be lucky to get three points out of their run of Chelsea (h), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (h), while Watford may also struggle with their Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester City (h). To be fair, no-one has a particularly easy ride, with West Brom perhaps the best placed to take advantage, but even they have to navigate tricky trips to Liverpool and Swansea, while hosting Newcastle, Stoke and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth may also see Christmas as a key moment, with an opportunity to claim some points. Starting with a home tie with Manchester United, they then travel to West Brom before hosting Crystal Palace. A trip to the Emirates follows, before going to Leicester on New Years' Day. Meanwhile, Norwich start their games with Everton at home and Manchester United and Spurs away, before home ties against Aston Villa and Southampton. Finally, Sunderland have three horrible games sandwiched by winnable ones. Starting with a home game against Watford, the Black Cats then travel to both of last year's top two, Chelsea and Manchester City, before hosting Liverpool. They finish the festive period with a game at home to Aston Villa, which could provide some respite.
This order is considerably more difficult, with many of the teams suffering during this period. Nevertheless, this is my order: Leicester, Watford, Sunderland, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom.
In the latter stages of the season, every point is critical. Therefore, the final five games are absolutely critical, and can ruin an entire year. Again, like the Christmas period, some clubs haven't been fortunate at all. In particular, I feel for Leicester, Bournemouth and Norwich. After a horrible Christmas period for the Foxes, they end their season with home ties against both West Ham and Swansea, before a horrible triple header of Manchester United (a), Everton (h) and Chelsea (a). Similarly, Norwich start with two, albeit slightly easier, home ties against Sunderland and Watford, before travelling to Arsenal, hosting Manchester United and making the trip to Everton. In contrast, Bournemouth start with horrible home ties against Liverpool and Chelsea, before travelling to Everton, hosting West Brom and then a killer tie at Manchester United on the final day.
Outside of those three, all have a couple of tricky ties, with a few games in which they can recoup some points. Sunderland have both Arsenal and Chelsea at home, as well as the tricky trip to Stoke, but they also have games against both Norwich and Watford. Similarly, West Brom have home games against West Ham and Liverpool, as well as a trip to Tottenham, but also playing Watford and Bournemouth. Finally, Watford probably have the easiest task, playing many of the sides around them, namely West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland, as well as a home tie with Aston Villa and a trip to Liverpool.
If the easiest is easy, the rest is fairly tricky, but this is the order that I have picked for the final five: Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, West Brom, Watford.
So, when all is said and done, who is set for the drop (according to the fixtures)? Well, if we add up the points, with six for the hardest and one for the easiest in each of the three periods, we can make a final table. Should there be even points, whoever has ended up at the highest end in terms of difficulty in any of the three periods will be considered at a disadvantage. With this in mind, here is the final order, as it would be in the table:
15th - Sunderland (8 points)
16th - West Brom (9 points)
17th - Norwich (11 points - top spot 3rd)
18th - Watford (11 points - top spot 2nd)
19th - Bournemouth (11 points - top spot 1st)
20th - Leicester (13 points)
Before we start, I'm going to do a quick run through my choices for the sides that will be contesting the bottom three places. In my opinion, it all comes down to six teams. As at least one relegated side has been relegated for all bar two seasons this century, I'll include all three of the newly promoted sides, as well as others I believe to be vulnerable to relegation this year, namely Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom. You may have noticed that I've not included either Newcastle or Aston Villa, both of whom only narrowly evaded relegation last season. However, Aston Villa's upturn in form towards the back end of the season, along with the law of averages that suggests that Newcastle simply can't collapse in the same way they did last season, means that I don't believe either will be seriously fighting the drop this year.
So, now we've got our constituents, what do the fixtures say? Starting with the opening five, we can see an interesting variety of difficulties when it comes to fixtures. For instance, compare the opening fixtures for West Brom - Manchester City (h), Watford (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (a) and Southampton (h) - with Sunderland's - Leicester (a), Norwich (h), Swansea (h), Aston Villa (a), Tottenham (h). Though the Black Cats do have some difficult games, there is nothing like the two top sides in the league and a difficult away trip to Stoke! Leicester's games are not too dissimilar to Sunderland's, with the starter against the North East club, before games at West Ham, at home to Spurs, away at Bournemouth and at home to Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, our new Premier League sides all have mediocre starts, with both challenging and easier games in their opening five. Watford have away games at Everton and Manchester City, as well as hosting West Brom, Southampton and Swansea. Norwich have a trip to St Mary's to contend with, in addition to hosting Stoke. Finally, Bournemouth's first season in the top flight sees them travel to Anfield, Norwich and West Ham, as well as hosting Leicester and Aston Villa.
In my opinion, the order is relatively simple - West Brom, Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Sunderland.
As we move towards Christmas, the fixtures get brutal, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the relegation battle. For example, Leicester may be lucky to get three points out of their run of Chelsea (h), Everton (a), Liverpool (a), Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (h), while Watford may also struggle with their Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Tottenham (h), Manchester City (h). To be fair, no-one has a particularly easy ride, with West Brom perhaps the best placed to take advantage, but even they have to navigate tricky trips to Liverpool and Swansea, while hosting Newcastle, Stoke and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth may also see Christmas as a key moment, with an opportunity to claim some points. Starting with a home tie with Manchester United, they then travel to West Brom before hosting Crystal Palace. A trip to the Emirates follows, before going to Leicester on New Years' Day. Meanwhile, Norwich start their games with Everton at home and Manchester United and Spurs away, before home ties against Aston Villa and Southampton. Finally, Sunderland have three horrible games sandwiched by winnable ones. Starting with a home game against Watford, the Black Cats then travel to both of last year's top two, Chelsea and Manchester City, before hosting Liverpool. They finish the festive period with a game at home to Aston Villa, which could provide some respite.
This order is considerably more difficult, with many of the teams suffering during this period. Nevertheless, this is my order: Leicester, Watford, Sunderland, Norwich, Bournemouth, West Brom.
In the latter stages of the season, every point is critical. Therefore, the final five games are absolutely critical, and can ruin an entire year. Again, like the Christmas period, some clubs haven't been fortunate at all. In particular, I feel for Leicester, Bournemouth and Norwich. After a horrible Christmas period for the Foxes, they end their season with home ties against both West Ham and Swansea, before a horrible triple header of Manchester United (a), Everton (h) and Chelsea (a). Similarly, Norwich start with two, albeit slightly easier, home ties against Sunderland and Watford, before travelling to Arsenal, hosting Manchester United and making the trip to Everton. In contrast, Bournemouth start with horrible home ties against Liverpool and Chelsea, before travelling to Everton, hosting West Brom and then a killer tie at Manchester United on the final day.
Outside of those three, all have a couple of tricky ties, with a few games in which they can recoup some points. Sunderland have both Arsenal and Chelsea at home, as well as the tricky trip to Stoke, but they also have games against both Norwich and Watford. Similarly, West Brom have home games against West Ham and Liverpool, as well as a trip to Tottenham, but also playing Watford and Bournemouth. Finally, Watford probably have the easiest task, playing many of the sides around them, namely West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland, as well as a home tie with Aston Villa and a trip to Liverpool.
If the easiest is easy, the rest is fairly tricky, but this is the order that I have picked for the final five: Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, West Brom, Watford.
So, when all is said and done, who is set for the drop (according to the fixtures)? Well, if we add up the points, with six for the hardest and one for the easiest in each of the three periods, we can make a final table. Should there be even points, whoever has ended up at the highest end in terms of difficulty in any of the three periods will be considered at a disadvantage. With this in mind, here is the final order, as it would be in the table:
15th - Sunderland (8 points)
16th - West Brom (9 points)
17th - Norwich (11 points - top spot 3rd)
18th - Watford (11 points - top spot 2nd)
19th - Bournemouth (11 points - top spot 1st)
20th - Leicester (13 points)
Monday 29 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Invading The Continent (Champions League)
With the announcement of the Premier League fixtures, the rumour mills spins into overdrive about who is favourite for the big prizes - the title, the Champions League, and avoiding relegation. In my post yesterday, I outlined my opinion on who I believe is currently favourites for the Premier League title, based solely on the fixtures in the opening five games, the busy Christmas period, and the final five. This time, it's the turn of those sides competing for a place in the Champions League, namely Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton.
So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.
Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.
Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.
So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.
So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.
Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.
Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.
So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.
Sunday 28 June 2015
2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Clash of The Cash (Title Race)
With the fixtures announced on Wednesday, that feeling of anticipation and excitement over the new season grows. The transfer window hasn't even opened yet, and people are already looking at the big derbies (with Aston Villa and West Brom particularly peeved that they didn't make the list) and making their predictions over the winners of the next Premier League title. Over the last couple of years, I've done blog posts looking at the fixtures, and using them to give an initial indication of who should be considered favourites. It's not particularly scientific, but it is interesting.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
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