Sunday 26 April 2015

Do Foreign Owners Make Leeds United?

My dad has been a Leeds United fan from an early age, and has probably been against foreign ownership of football clubs since then. It would therefore be of great irritation to him to see his favourite club in its current predicament. After years under the ownership of the 'poisoned dwarf' (my dad's words, not mine) Ken Bates, the entrance of Massimo Cellino, though eccentric, was surely a step in the right direction, right? Well, just 12 months after his acquisition of the club, it seems that is wrong. A year of pandemonium and chaos has followed, seemingly reinforcing my dad's argument regarding foreign owners.

It's worth noting that this is not the only case of foreign owners causing a stir. This has been to varying levels, but some of the country's largest clubs have fallen foul of owners that prioritise the business over the football. Most high profile of these are the two most successful clubs in this country's history: Liverpool and Manchester United.

Chronologically, it was the reds from (not quite) Manchester that were the subject of the first takeover bid. Having been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 1990, Malcolm Glazer had built up his share of the company between 2003 and 2005, before announcing a formal takeover in the May of the latter year. In total, the acquisition cost around £800m, though this only tells half of the story.

Before the ink had dried on the deal, and before the supporters could get excited about potential financial investment, we worked out how the deal had been financed, and more worryingly, who was carrying the burden. All loans had been secured against the assets of the club, meaning that the financial stability of the club was put in serious danger. In addition, interest payments of up to £60m annually would be owed, piling more and more on top of the club. Like Cellino, Glazer seemed only interested in protecting his own investment, rather than the fortunes of the team and the fans.

Similarly, Liverpool struggled with new American owners. Tom Hicks and George Gillette, who both had histories with sports clubs in the States, decided to take a controlling stake in Liverpool at the beginning of 2007, valuing the business at £218.9m. In a turbulent three years, the pair fell so heavily out of favour due to a lack of incoming transfer activity and a failure to deliver the new stadium that they were called "asset strippers" in Parliament and we eventually willing to take a £144m loss on the club on its 2010 sale. Court cases and legal disputes have rumbled on since, so it seems unlikely that we have heard the end of this story yet.

However, while the heritage of these two clubs has enabled them to manage their losses and survive, there are some clubs that do not have the resources. The most obvious example of this is Portsmouth. A Premier League side, the club won the 2008 FA Cup to secure the unlikeliest of places in Europe for the following season. With new investment from Sulaiman al Fahim, it seemed as though Portsmouth would be in good hands to push on up the table. However, just five years later, the side would have a series of foreign owners, all of whom would receive similar "asset-stripper" descriptions as Hicks and Gillette, leaving the club in the lowest tier of league football and feeling lucky just to be in existence.

However, before I get accused of being xenophobic, there are foreign owners that have progressed their clubs. In recent years, new footballing superpowers have been created by overseas wealth, with Chelsea and Manchester City the most high profile instances.

Chelsea, following years of being the nearly men in terms of achieving Champions League football, were acquired in June 2003 by a relatively unknown oil tycoon, Roman Abramovich. The Russian shelled out hundreds of millions of pounds on players in the early years, bringing titles in successive years in 2005 and 2006 - the club's first in 50 years. Over the next eight years, the club has gone from strength to strength, winning a further one Premier League crown, while adding four FA Cups, three League Cups, a Europa League and the one Abramovich was after, the Champions League.

More recently, my club, Manchester City were thrust into the financial limelight. Following the turbulent reign of Thaksin Shinawatra, the Abu Dhabi United group was found to take the club forward, headed by Sheikh Mansoor. The enormous wealth of the group enabled the Blues to make the seismic transfer of Robinho on the final day of the 2009 summer transfer window, before letting the cash flow freely to acquire some of the most high profile players in the world. To date, this has resulted in two Premier League titles in three years, as well as an FA Cup and a League Cup, but European success has eluded them. As a result, it seems likely that their investors are in it for the long haul.

As well as this, English people can make just as appalling owners of football clubs. Take Mike Ashley for example. If ruining the ambitions of historic club wasn't enough, he's managed two! Having spent three years at university in Newcastle, I'm well aware of how important the club is to the city and how deep the desire for success is from the fans. Never before have I seen the mood of an entire city affected by the result on Saturday, and it is a shame to see the lifeless shell that this side has become under Mike Ashley's leadership. Making a profit is one thing, and with the FFP regulations in full swing, I understand the need to balance the books, but this business sense has to be married to a progress mentality. Sadly, this is something that the Geordies can quite rightly level at Ashley, and he seems unlikely to change this in the near future.

So it appears that the old locally owned football club system has well and truly gone. It's incredible to think that there was a time when Liverpool and Everton were both owned by the same family, who ran the clubs completely independently (and successfully I might add) during the 70s and 80s. Could you imagine those two clubs operating that way in the current system? Or any two clubs - not even those so closely linked? No. As football has become increasingly commercialised, particularly in the UK (for more details of this, check out my blog on the TV rights and English clubs' struggles in Europe), club owners are focusing their energies on making money from their ventures, and as a result, the day to day business is ever-more time consuming. Attempting to take on one club is difficult enough, so two would be near impossible.

So how do we ensure that the right people take over our historic clubs, meaning that assets are not stripped, or worse, the soul of the club is damaged?

Let's have a look at our current system - the 'Fit and Proper Person' test. Introduced in 2004 to prevent corrupt or unsuitable directors of football clubs, the test is performed on any individual that acquires in excess of 30 per cent of a club. In short, the following are considered 'disqualifying events' for owning a Premier League club:

  • They have power or influence over another Football League club
  • They become prohibited by law from becoming a director (and believe me, there are a lot of offences)
  • They are filing for bankruptcy
  • They have been a director of a club while it has suffered two or more unconnected events of insolvency
  • They have been a director of two or more clubs of which, while they have been a director, has suffered an event of insolvency

However, after eleven years, and numerous examples of (in mine and my dad's opinions) 'unfit directors', we can certainly say that it has not been a rousing success. What is even more worrying is that unlike other legislation, it doesn't learn from its mistakes. I accept that nothing will be perfect the first time around, but I would expect much more than watching the same situations unfold time after time. Surely, the only way of preventing unfit owners is by tightening the regulations, placing them and their intentions for the club under scrutiny.

So, possible additions to the regulations? Setting out a five year plan for the club, which must be adhered to (as much as is humanly possible), a fan vote that, though it does not have the mandate to remove any owner directly, could cause the FA to place the owner on report. Any owner placed on this report is unable to purchase any further clubs in the future - in simple terms, one strike and you're out! Though these measures may seem excessive, it is perhaps the only way to prevent the likes of Glazer, Hicks, Gillette, Ashley and Cellino getting their way, and sucking the life from some of our most historic sporting institutions.

Sunday 19 April 2015

Blue Move: They Won't Be Standing Alone

I'm getting the distinct feeling that success for Manchester City is cyclical at present, rather than consistent. Despite the positive stat of two titles in three seasons, the fact remains that each of their title defences have been woeful. And arguably, the situation that the side finds themselves in is worse than that under Roberto Mancini just two years ago, which ultimately saw the deposition of the Italian. Whereas Mancini finished second (albeit a distant second) to Manchester United in 2012/2013, and reached an FA Cup final (losing to Wigan), Manuel Pellegrini has struggled, slipping into a battle for Champions League qualification, while exiting both cup competitions early.

As a result, questions have been raised around the future of the manager and a number of the players come the summer. I suppose when you have the level of spending power that Manchester City has, this speculation is never far away, but how much is justified? And what should this re-shuffle look like?

I'll start with the outgoings, looking at who, where they may end up and, given the importance of the Financial Fair Play regulations, how much City may be able to recoup for them.

Goalkeepers
Richard Wright
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: Free
Reason: Good for player development, but not one worth wasting more money than necessarily.
Where: Backroom coaching, maybe not at City, but somewhere
Price: Free

Defenders
Aleksandar Kolorov
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £17m from Lazio
Reason: A free kick specialist, but often found wanting defensively. Not justified his fee and time to move on.
Where: Italy or Germany are probable destinations - i'm sure Lazio would have him back for a reduced fee.
Price: £7.5m

Dedryck Boyata
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: He's been given plenty of time to develop at City, and has yet to show significant signs of progression. Not likely to be a first team regular in the future
Where: Mid-table Premier League is most likely, with the likes of Swansea, West Ham or Sunderland possible destinations.
Price: £3m

Midfielders
Fernando
Joined: Summer 2014
Fee: £16m from Porto
Reason: Has not been good enough either in possession or without. Constantly caught out and looks nothing like the £16m paid.
Where: Porto may be a preferred destination, but Russia or Shakhtar Donetsk could be options.
Price: £8m

Samir Nasri
Joined: Summer 2011
Fee: £25m from Arsenal
Reason: A shame, as I like Nasri, but he has flattered to deceive at times during his stay at the Etihad. All too often comes across as petulant and uncaring, which doesn't demonstrate commitment to the club.
Where: Valencia or Napoli may be possible options, while a return to his home nation may be another option.
Price: £15m

Jesus Navas
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £15m from Sevilla
Reason: His pace is outstanding, but his final ball is found lacking. A peripheral figure during his time at City, and I feel a return to Spain may be best.
Where: Given his previous home sickness, Sevilla may be the best destination.
Price: £10m

Yaya Toure
Joined: Summer 2010
Fee: £20m from Barcelona
Reason: Coming towards the twilight in his career. After an exceptional season last time, he simply cannot defend, and has not continued to hit the heights. Time to cash out.
Where: Inter Milan and Roberto Mancini have made their intentions very clear, with the below fee potentially mooted. City should take that now.
Price: £43m

Scott Sinclair
Joined: Summer 2012
Fee: £7.5m from Swansea City
Reason: A poor purchase made in a panic in the final days of a transfer window, Sinclair has not had a fair crack of the whip and would do best to move on.
Where: A mid table Premier League side. His loan spell at Aston Villa has looked to be a fruitful one, so I wouldn't bet against a permanent move.
Price: £5m

Strikers
Edin Dzeko
Joined: January 2011
Fee: £27m from Wolfsburg
Reason: Has shown glimpses of being a top striker, but not consistent. He can score a hat trick one week and be useless the next, and City cannot cope with this long term.
Where: The Bosnian has suitors in a range of different countries, and the likes of Roma, Atletico Madrid and Wolfsburg are all possibles. I would suggest that the latter would be his preferred destination, and they certainly have the cash to throw around.
Price: £15m

Stevan Jovetic
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £22m from Fiorentina
Reason: Has been hampered by injury during his time at City, meaning that he has yet to have a long run in the side. His removal from the Champions League squad was the final straw
Where: Juventus has been touted as a possible, but Italy certainly seems the likely country.
Price: £15m

Alvaro Negredo
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: £16.4m
Reason: Unknown personal reasons meant that his stay in England was a short one.
Where: Valencia
Price: £25m

John Guidetti
Joined: 2008
Fee: Free (Academy)
Reason: Similar to Boyata, has had numerous loan spells and has yet to really hit the highest levels. Has performed well at Celtic, but I feel that is about as high as he is likely to go.
Where: Celtic is certainly possible, but he has enough interest from Holland and Europe to challenge this.
Price: £5m

Staff
Manuel Pellegrini
Joined: Summer 2013
Fee: Free
Reason: A real shame, as I think he's done a fantastic job. I would have to caveat this sacking, however. This should only happen if Pep Guardiola could be prised from Munich - no-one else would do.
Where: Probably back to Spain. The likes of Sevilla or Villarreal may be possibles, while the poor performance of Athletic Bilbao may give him a quick return.
Price: Free

Totals:
Players left: 12
Funds raised: £151.5m

Interestingly, you'll notice that I have not included either James Milner or Micah Richards in that list. With the new quotas proposed (read more about that here), City will need their English players to stay. Milner has continued to be one of their most consistent performers this season, and it would be a great shame to see him leave, while I still believe Richards' true talents were wasted, and that he is a good alternative to Mangala and Demichelis at centre back.

So, with a total of 12 players set to leave, who could City get to replace them? To answer that, you need to consult the financials. With Financial Fair Play having an increasing impact on clubs, breaking even is a must.

The most recent financial results show that City have continued to cut losses, with income also rising by over 22 per cent. The 2014 results show that City, minus the £16m penalty for contravening FFP laws, made a loss of just £7m. They are expected to make a small profit at the end of this financial year (May 2015), giving the club everything they bring in in fees to spend, as well as potentially a little extra.

With an estimated £150m to spend, who could be targets for City this summer as they look to regroup?

Defenders
Here I see minimal additions, with the emphasis likely to be on who they may be able to acquire fairly cheaply. A replacement left back may be an option to limit the impact from the exit of Aleksandar Kolorov, with AC Milan's Mattia De Sciglio or Southampton's Nathaniel Clyne possible. With the Italian side a shadow of its former self, and struggling financially, a deal could be struck for somewhere in the region of £10m. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich's centre back Dante could be available for a cut price, given that the Brazilian is currently playing second fiddle to Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng in the Bayern side, while failing to make his presence felt in the national team. I don't think this is particularly likely, but it is an option.

Midfielders
Here there will be considerably more movement. The big money move of Yaya Toure means that City need to recruit in the centre of midfield, while the likes of Nasri, Fernando and Navas have not quite lived up to expectation.

There have been rumblings of potential huge money moves, but it's whether City can afford to do them and focus on the Financial Fair Play. Juventus's Paul Pogba and Real Madrid's Gareth Bale have both been linked with a number of Premier League sides, City included, but any deal would surely be worth in excess of £60m for either. Also, it's worth noting that any of these big names are only likely to move to a side with Champions League football, so the remainder of this season is set to have a significant impact on the success over the summer.

However, City simply have to strengthen in the centre, and if Pogba does not become a significant target, then the likes of Ilkay Gundogan or Blaise Matuidi could provide a slightly cheaper options - and by that I mean about £35m. In terms of improving the English contingent in the squad, much has been made of City's pursuit of Everton's Ross Barkley, while contract stalling for both Raheem Sterling and Theo Walcott has led to speculation. However, as we have seen, English players often result in inflated prices, meaning that City may have to part with more cash than the players are worth.

Strikers

With three of the five current strikers expected to depart this summer, the need to strengthen in this area is crucial too. Here, I'd like to see a striker with strength and a quicker striker with proven goalscoring ability. For me, the likes of Gonzalo Higuain could be an option, though Napoli are hardly in a position where they need to sell. Similarly, the likes of Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could be targets, but any of these would sure cost anywhere between £25m and £40m. However, I'd like to take a bit of a risk. With Radamel Falcao out of contract at Monaco come the end of the season, offering him an alternative to his appalling stay across the city may not be a bad idea - particularly for free.

Staff
As I mentioned above, it's a shame that Pellegrini is almost certain to be on his way, but in my eyes, there is only one manager in the planet that I would want. Pep Guardiola has achieved everything in the game in the countries he has managed in, and perhaps now is the time to renew old rivalries with Jose Mourinho. What do you say Pep?

Who I Would Get:
Mattia De Sciglio - £10m
Ilkay Gundogan - £35m
Raheem Sterling - £25m
Paul Pogba - £60m
Radamel Falcao - Free
Alexandre Lacazette - £25m
Pep Guardiola - £10m
Total - £165m

Proposed Manchester City 2015/2016 squad:
Joe Hart, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Mattia De Sciglio, Karim Rekik, Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis, Eliaquim Mangala, Micah Richards, Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba, David Silva, James Milner, Marcos Lopez, Bruno Zuculini, Wilfried Bony, Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero

I mentioned at the start of the article that success at City seems cyclical at present, using this as a negative. If you'd have offered me that ten years ago, I'd have bitten your hand off! However, with the money invested, and (potentially) the squad above available to them next year, they may have built a team capable of achieving consistent success.

Friday 3 April 2015

The FA's Response: Changing Attitudes?

It's almost like the FA read my last blog post on England. As I made my recommendation to start blooding the younger generation of English players, in order to maintain a more consistent approach in the future, the English governing body made its point. Greg Dyke, who has been a strong proponent of introducing further English quotas, has outlined his plan for the future of not only the Premier League, but the English national side.

If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.

So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:


Club Players Home grown (%)
Arsenal 8/23 35%
Aston Villa 16/25 64%
Burnley 18/24 75%
Chelsea 3/20 15%
Crystal Palace 15/25 60%
Everton 8/25 32%
Hull City 13/25 52%
Leicester City 17/24 71%
Liverpool 9/19 47%
Manchester City 8/24 33%
Manchester United 12/24 50%
Newcastle United 9/25 36%
Queens Park Rangers 19/25 76%
Southampton 9/20 45%
Stoke City 12/25 48%
Sunderland 12/21 57%
Swansea City 12/25 48%
Tottenham Hotspur 6/23 26%
West Bromwich Albion 10/23 43%
West Ham United 14/24 58%
Total 230/469 49%

Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.

There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?

With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?

So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:


Club Players Home grown (%)
Arsenal 16/22 73%
Aston Villa 13/18 72%
Burnley 17/27 62%
Chelsea 20/27 74%
Crystal Palace 17/17 100%
Everton 22/29 76%
Hull City 32/33 97%
Leicester City 15/21 71%
Liverpool 9/16 56%
Manchester City 14/29 48%
Manchester United 24/28 86%
Newcastle United 26/34 76%
Queens Park Rangers 7/14 50%
Southampton 15/19 79%
Stoke City 14/20 70%
Sunderland 22/30 73%
Swansea City 24/30 80%
Tottenham Hotspur 16/22 73%
West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United 16/24 67%
Total 339/438 77%

With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.

Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?

However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.

Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.

But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!

Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.

This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?

In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.

The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.