Sunday 19 July 2015

Summer Transfer Window Series: 10 Moves That Shook The World

Every summer usually has a transfer that defines the period. However, some transfers transcend the boundaries of what is expected, or even what was previously thought possible, truly shaking the world of football. In this post, I'll outline my top 10, before looking at the mega-moves that we may see this August.

10. Angel di Maria - Real Madrid to Manchester United (£59.6m, 2014)
The first in my list is the first in the enormous money moves that I've looked at, and makes the list primarily because of the sum paid. Seen as one of the world's best wingers, di Maria starred at the World Cup in Brazil, helping Argentina to the final. With Manchester United in a slump following a poor season, a statement of intent was required - step forward di Maria for an eye-watering sum.

9. Neymar - Santos to Barcelona (£50m (to date), 2013)
The most sought-after young talent in the world at the time, Neymar opted for the Catalans over a number of clubs, leaving his beloved Santos for a reported £50m. This transfer would have serious repercussions, however, with contract irregularities reported set to turn this into a world record move - an incredible £116m quoted as the total potential price.

8. Alan Shearer - Blackburn Rovers to Newcastle United (£15m, 1996)
While it's not really the fee that means that Alan Shearer's transfer makes my list, it's the context. In 1996, the English transfer record stood at a metre (by today's standards) £8.5m, paid by Liverpool to Nottingham Forest for striker Stan Collymore. However, having won the Premier League title with Blackburn, England's number 9 made the move to his hometown club, with the Geordie almost doubling that record overnight, and demonstrating to the world the spending power that English clubs have.

7. Sol Campbell - Tottenham Hotspur to Arsenal (Free, 2001)
Again, not a transfer I'm picking on fee, but on context. It's extremely rare to see players move directly from one club to its direct local rivals, particularly in the higher division where the rivalry is that little more intense. Sol Campbell, a key part of the Spurs team of the 1990s, made the move across North London to Arsenal, and in so doing, cemented his Spurs legacy as the ultimate 'Judas'.

6. Luis Suarez - Liverpool to Barcelona (£75m, 2014)
While the £75m price tag you may assume is the reason for this to be in this list, it's actually not the only explanation. What makes this move most surprising, particularly for the level of investment made, is that Suarez had received a three month ban from all footballing activity for his bite on Giorgio Chiellini just a matter of weeks earlier. Nevertheless, this did not deter Barcelona, and Suarez made his move last summer for the inflated price.

5. Carlos Tevez - Manchester United to Manchester City (£25.5m, 2009)
Arguably the most controversial move across a city in English footballing history, and one that spawned an ingenious marketing campaign 'Welcome to Manchester' (if of course, you're a Manchester City fan and therefore a true Mancunian). Carlos Tevez had enjoyed a semi-successful loan spell at Manchester United in 2007/2008, before making the move to the heavily spending Blues the following summer. The chants of praise were soon changed to something slightly more offensive and insulting over in Salford!

4. Cristiano Ronaldo - Manchester United to Real Madrid (£80m, 2009)
Perhaps a few of you will be surprised by the fact that I've only rated this in at number four in my list, but I'll explain my decision. Unlike a number of other big money transfers, where the player either doesn't really justify the price, or the move is a surprise in the first place, neither is the case in terms of Ronaldo. Having made it perfectly clear that he wanted to leave Manchester United, it was equally clear that he would command an enormous sum. Therefore, while it was a transfer that shook the world, it was perhaps not as much of a shock as others.

3. Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m, 2008)
Rewind to 2007. Manchester City had just narrowly avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Enter first Thaksin Shinawatra and then the Abu Dhabi United Group on transfer deadline day 2008. With manager Mark Hughes on the golf course, City needed to make a statement of intent. And boy, did they, stealing Real Madrid striker Robinho from under the noses of Chelsea for a British record £32.5m.

2. Luis Figo - Barcelona to Real Madrid (£37m, 2000)
If we thought Carlos Tevez's move from United to City was acrimonious, then we've clearly forgotten Luis Figo's decision to move across the Clasico divide, with Barcelona selling their star man to Real Madrid in the summer of 2000. Pure chaos ensued, with the Portuguese's first return to the Nou Camp seeing him so badly abused that he stopped taking corners. Pelted with bottles, lighters and even a pig's head, Figo showed incredible courage, but also, why it may not be a logical move between close rivals - especially in Spain!

1. Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£89m, 2013)
Though this move was not a considerable surprise, if you'd have asked Spurs fans the number it would have taken to prise Gareth Bale away from them, I think only the most hardcore of fans would have suggested a world record £90m. Compared to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, the Welshman is nowhere, but the potential, and David Levy's notorious negotiation skills, meant that the fee inflated significantly.

With this summer window in full swing, are there any transfers that could shock the world of football enough to make this list? Raheem Sterling's £49m move to Manchester City certainly acts as a contender, but is there anything that looks like happening elsewhere?

The significant rumour mill surrounds Juventus wonder kid Paul Pogba. Both Manchester City and Barcelona have been linked with £60-70m moves for the Frenchman, which would certainly qualify as the defining move of this window. How likely this is is uncertain, but from a personal perspective, it would be great to see him in a blue shirt come September.

Sunday 5 July 2015

Summer Transfer Window Series: My Predictions

As the footballing merry-go-round begins to kick into gear for another year, English football clubs have never been in as strong a position to spend money. With the new £5bn football rights deal set to take effect from next year, clubs know that their revenues are going to be boosted come next summer. As a result, many can spend without fear of additional UEFA penalties thanks to the controversial Financial Fair Play regulations. With each of last season's top four expected to empty their bank accounts in the coming months, this summer is going to be interesting.

But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.

Arsenal

In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.

Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)

Aston Villa

In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)

Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)

Bournemouth

In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)

Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.

Crystal Palace

In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),

Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.

Chelsea

In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)

Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)

Everton

In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)

Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.

Leicester

In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)

Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.

Liverpool

In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)

Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).

Man City

In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)

Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!

Man Utd

In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)

Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).

Newcastle

In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).

Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.

Norwich

In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)

Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.

Southampton

In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)

Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.

Stoke

In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).

Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.

Sunderland

In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)

Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.

Swansea

In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)

Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.

Tottenham

In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).

Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.

Watford

In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)

Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.

West Brom

In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)

Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.

West Ham

In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)

Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.

Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m

Total Income: £266.3m

Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m