Sunday 14 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: West Ham United

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Can be summed up by the signing and subsequent performances of one man: Dimitri Payet. Having transferred for a very reasonable £12m, the French magician proved his worth almost immediately, with chances being created each and every game, and popping up with the occasional important goal and outstanding free-kick.

Having made a blistering start to their season, with shocking away victories at first Anfield and the Etihad Stadium to beat the previously 100 per cent Manchester City, West Ham kicked on from their. In a season full of shocks, they spent a large part of the year challenging for the Champions League spots, before eventually fading away into the Europa League spots, only managing European football thanks to Manchester United's FA Cup win. Nevertheless, an outstanding first season for Slaven Bilic at the helm of the Hammers.

Backroom setup
Unsurprisingly, Bilic has been retained at the head of the London club, meaning that the key change has come off the field. Having spent 112 years at the famous Boleyn Ground, the Hammers have made the move across East London to the newly renovated Olympic Stadium, renamed the London Stadium.

With the new place holding upwards of 50,000, they'll be looking to make the new Olympic Stadium a real fortress in the opening weeks to make the Hammers fans comfortable in their surroundings.

Pre-season
Well if nothing else, it's been busy. However, it could certainly be argued that this pre-season has not been particularly successful, with the Hammers securing only one win from six games. This started with a 3-0 defeat to the Seattle Sounders, followed by consecutive 2-2 draws with second division US side Carolina RailHawks and Czech side Slovacko, though it should be mentioned that the Hammers saw a 2-0 lead slip in the latter game entering the final three minutes.

A 3-0 defeat to Rubin Kazan followed, before a win over Kahlsruher by the same scoreline, with Carroll, Feghouli and Fletcher on the scoreboard. Finally, West Ham welcomed Serie A champions Juventus to officially open the London Stadium in a game they narrowly lost 3-2 - two goals from Carroll not quite able to cancel out a trio from Paulo Dybala, Mario Mandzukic and Simone Zaza.

However, more important was the fact that West Ham would be playing European football from the end of July. Drawn against little-known Slovenian side Domizale, West Ham struggled with conditions overseas, losing 2-1 in Ljubljana, but did overcome the Slovenians in East London, winning 4-2 on aggregate.

Squad and signings
The Hammers have also been busy in the transfer market, and were perhaps the first team to announce a signing, with Sofiane Feghouli announced from Valencia on a free before the summer had even started. Similarly, Havard Nordtveid left Borussia Monchengladbach for London for free, while there were undisclosed signings for strikers Toni Martinez and Domingos Quina, and loan moves for Gokhan Tore and Jonathan Calleri from Besiktas and Deportivo Maldonado respectively.

However, the Hammers' biggest signings were made more recently, with the £20.5m signing of Swansea attacking midfielder Andre Ayew arguably the biggest coup. The club also invested a further £6.25m in Arthur Masuaku from Olympiakos as they looked to sure up their defence.

On the outgoings, only James Tomkins has left, with the Hammers making £10m from his move to London rivals Crystal Palace. This will be pleasing to West Ham fans, providing the strength in depth required to fight on multiple fronts.

Tactics
Assuming Andy Carroll stays fit, I would certainly expect the Hammers to utilise the width and crossing ability of Payet and the aerial prowess of the Newcastle-born striker. Bilic also seemed to favour the use of wing-backs to provide a distraction, so expect Aaron Cresswell to be bombing on and stretching defences.

Predictions
While the squad has the quality to compete on three fronts, I would be surprised to see the Hammers experience the same success in the Premier League as they did last year, as their European exploits will have an effect on their league form. I'm going to go for a comfortable mid-table finish, but it would take a significant effort to keep the team around the European places come May.

Final position: 10th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: West Bromwich Albion

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Typically solid if unspectacular from a Tony Pulis team, with the Baggies now casting away the shackles of their 'boing boing' stereotype for a more neatly fitting mid-table mediocrity tag. I'm honestly not sure which one is worse from a fan's perspective!

That being said, there can be no doubt that West Brom were difficult to beat at The Hawthorns, ensuring a safe 14th place finish, despite continuous speculation surrounding the future of Saido Berahino.

Backroom setup
Unsurprisingly, Tony Pulis has been retained as manager, and if his record is anything to go by, that practically guarantees Premier League survival. No other significant changes have been made behind the scenes, meaning that the Baggies can enter into the season in some level of stability.

Pre-season
Unlike many of their closest rivals, West Brom have opted for a fairly challenging run of pre-season matches, starting with a game against French champions Paris Saint Germain. While they may have been on the end of a 2-1 defeat, it was by no means embarrassing, and Pulis will take heart from the performance.

Two 2-1 wins then swiftly followed, over opponents of varying quality. Firstly, a brace from Berahino saw Kidderminster Harriers downed, before a more impressive win over Eredivisie side Vitesse Arnhem, with Rondon and McManaman on the scoresheet. However, this form could not continue, with a pair of disappointing results over teams in the lower leagues. First came a 0-0 draw with Plymouth, before a 2-1 reverse at Torquay United dented any momentum coming into the season. 

Squad and signings
It's almost business as usual in the Midlands, with the squad largely the same as last year. However, much discussion has been had about the future of young striker Berahino, while the club also released ex-first teamers Stephane Sessegnon, Victor Anichebe and Anders Lindegaard to remove some of the wage strain.

There's not been much action inward either. The Baggies only have the signing of QPR winger Matt Phillips for £5.5m to show for their actions, and in all honesty, they've barely been linked with anyone else for the remainder of the window. Can the team that kept them up last year do the same again this term?

Tactics
It's Tony Pulis, so you know what's coming, and it isn't going to be sparkling football. Expect more long balls to Salomon Rondon's head or chest, as well as physical play in both the centre of midfield and defence to make them a difficult side to beat at home.

Predictions
He'll keep them up. It's just what he does. It's the same team, so I'm going to go with the same placing as last year. With the likes of Southampton, West Ham and Leicester all sparking moves up the table, when will a lower mid-table finish get boring for the Baggies fans, I wonder?

Final position: 14th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Watford

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
A hugely successful return to the Premier League for the Hornets, culminating in a safe mid-table finish and FA Cup semi-final. Even more importantly, they found a couple of important contributors when it came to finding the net. Both captain Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo got off to flying starts as far as goalscoring is concerned, with the latter quickly into double figures. Though the second half of the year saw a rapid decline in Watford's ability to find the net, they were still able to comfortably stave off the threat of relegation, highlighting once again the fantastic job done by Quique Sanchez Flores and his team.

Backroom setup
Despite the success, Flores made it abundantly clear that he would not be staying at Watford for the remainder of his contract, opting instead to move back to his native Spain with Espanyol. The Watford board, however, pulled off in my eyes a masterstroke, replacing Flores with ex-Napoli and Inter Milan boss Walter Mazzarri. The extravagant Italian brings with his an exciting style of play, as well as European experience, which will prove invaluable to Watford as they look to pull their way up the table.

Pre-season
Their pre-season was certainly reminiscent of their first season back in the Premier League - a strong start punctuated by draws and defeats. Beginning with a disappointing 1-1 draw at Woking, Watford followed this up with wins at both Stevenage (2-0) and Union Berlin (3-1), with Etienne Capoue, who flew largely under the radar last season, getting on the scoresheet in both games.

However, just as happened in their league season, their form rather tailed off as they got to the end of pre-season. Following a dour 0-0 draw with Russian side Anzhi Makhachkala, the Hornets ended with a 2-0 defeat to Championship side QPR.

Squad and signings
Mazzari has yet to really get into the transfer market in any big way, but perhaps the best bits of business conducted so far is keeping both Ighalo and Deeney, despite interest from the likes of champions Leicester and Arsenal. They have had a clearout of some of their younger players and second string side, with the most high profile exits those of Almen Abdi and Daniel Pudil to Sheffield Wednesday, as well as the sale of Jose Manuel Jurado to Quique Sanchez Flores's new side Espanyol.

It's easy to forget that amidst the exits, Watford have actually made their record signing, with striker Isaac Success joining from Getafe for an estimate fee of £12.5m. They've also made signings in the defence, with Christian Kabasele and Brice Dja Djedje joining from Genk and Marseille for undisclosed fees respectively, and Juan Camilo Zuniga joining from Napoli on loan for the season. Finally, the Hornets managed to poach promising young English striker Jerome Sinclair from Liverpool for a cut price of £4m.

Tactics
Again, with a new manager, it's often difficult to tell exactly how a side will perform in the early days of the season. However, you would expect Mazzari to continue to employ the flying wingback tactic, something further emphasised by the signing of Zuniga. Similarly, the fact that they have fought so hard to keep hold of Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo would tend to suggest that the 'big man, little man' strike combination is going to remain the focus further up the pitch.

Predictions
The second season is often a stumbling block for many promoted sides, and I do feel that Watford will go through a period of difficulty at some point in the season. However, having proven goalscorer at this level will help pull them away from trouble, but I feel it will be closer than it was last time around.

Final position: 16th

Saturday 13 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Tottenham Hotspur

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Leicester's biggest challengers for the remainder of the season, Tottenham enjoyed a buoyant 2015/16. With the emergence of young Englishmen Dele Alli and Harry Kane, Spurs found themselves challenging for the title for the majority of the season. However, as it became increasingly obvious that Leicester's momentum was not going to end, Tottenham struggled to see out the season, eventually falling behind their local rivals on the final day.

Backroom setup
After such a strong year last time around, it comes as little surprise that Mauricio Pochettino has been retained as manager, meaning that Spurs have the consistency that many of their rivals lack (if you exclude Arsenal, of course!).

What has changed slightly is where the backroom is going to be for certain matches. While Tottenham look to renovate their current stadium, all home league and cup matches will be played at White Hart Lane, but all Champions League games are to be played across the city at Wembley, providing a few marquee games for the Spurs fans to go and watch.

Pre-season
A very short one, as Spurs chose only to compete in the International Champions Cup. While that does offer them a considerable challenge, and push them against some of the most successful sides in Europe, will that provide the match fitness necessary to maintain the momentum from their 3rd place finish last year?

Regardless, the cup itself can hardly be seen as an overwhelming success for Mauricio Pochettino's men. Beginning with a 2-1 defeat to reigning Serie A champions Juventus, the London side then went down 0-1 to Champions League finalists Atletico Madrid. While the Lily Whites did turn in a much improved performance to destroy Inter Milan 6-1, with goals from Alli, Kane, Lamela, Janssen and Harrison, is one win in three games really a strong return, and the stuff of champions?

Squad and signings
There is not all that much to say on the transfer front either. Comparatively, Spurs have spent far less than any of their main rivals, investing in just two players: Victor Wanyama from Southampton for £11m, and Vincent Janssen from AZ Alkmaar for £17m. While both will strengthen the squad, will that be enough to rival the £150m and nearly £175m that Manchester City and United have spent respectively?

They have, however, managed to retain all of their top talent from last season. While there will have been rumbling surrounding Harry Kane, and I'm sure Pochettino took a few calls about his star man, all of Spurs' key players have remained at the club. This may provide them with a bit of consistency, meaning that they can hit the ground running when the season starts and avoiding that awkward period when a new manager and players look to bed in.

Tactics
I'm not even sure I need to write anything in here, as it's not going to change. Cue fast, attacking football with extensive use of the flying wing-backs Rose and Walker, as well as guile and flair from the likes of Alli, Eriksen and Lamela. Dembele and Dier will provide the perfect foil for the back pairing of Vertonghen and Alderweireld, while Harry Kane will be looking to continue his outstanding scoring streak (if you ignore his woeful Euro 2016!).

Predictions
If last year was a close but no cigar moment, I feel this year will be essentially the same thing but a bit further down. With resurgence promised from all three of City, United and Chelsea, as well as the inevitable fact of Arsenal finishing above them, I can see Spurs narrowly missing out on the top 4, dropping into the much maligned 5th spot and taking their place back in the Europa League.

Final position: 5th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Swansea City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Certainty a season of what might have been. After a promising start from the Swans, with new signing Andre Ayew particularly impressing, they went downhill rapidly in the mid-season, falling into the relegation zone as we entered December. This ultimately cost Garry Monk his job, with Francisco Guidolin his eventual replacement.

Under the tutelage of the Italian, the Welsh side climbed slowly up the table, with impressive wins at The Emirates and at home to Chelsea. A 1-1 draw with Manchester City on the final day sent the Swans 12th, a good achievement given the circumstances at the turn of the year.

Backroom setup
Swansea fans will be glad to hear that Guidolin will be retained as manager for the upcoming year, meaning that the important changes will be made to the on-field staff.

Pre-season
Easiest way to describe this is simple. Whereas other sides have focused more on creating challenging matches, the Swans seem to have looked towards eminently winnable games, and as such picked up 5 from 6. Starting in the US, Swansea beat third tier side Charlotte Independence 4-0, before ending up on the end of a 2-0 reverse to Richmond Kickers, again in the US third division.

Having returned to the UK, Swansea took a short trip around England to face some of our lower league sides. A 5-1 win at Bristol Rovers, which saw five goals from different scorers, was followed by a 3-0 win at Swindon and a 4-0 win at Wolves, with Wayne Routledge bagging a brace. The Swans final game saw them return to the Liberty, securing a narrow 1-0 win over French side Stade Rennais, but unlike many of their key rivals, have yet to be really tested.

Squad and signings
Their case will not have been aided by the sale of all of their recognised strikers from last season. Having made it very clear that Bafetimbi Gomis would be leaving to Marseille on loan, while Euro 2016 winner Eder (Lille), Alberto Paloschi (Atalanta), and most notably Andre Ayew (West Ham, £20.5m), Swansea have been left very threadbare up front. The Welsh club have also lost their captain, with Ashley Williams being charged with replacing Everton's John Stones for a £12m fee.

In fairness, the Swans have certainly been active in the transfer market, bringing in two headline strikers in Fernando Llorente from Sevilla and Borja Baston from Atletico Madrid for £15.5m. In addition, Swansea have added on-loan midfielder Leroy Fer and Dutch defender Mike van der Voorn to their squad as they look to build strength in depth.

Tactics
It's difficult to say given all the changes made over the summer, but certainly Francisco Guidolin will not want to abandon the tactics that kept Swansea in the Premier League. As with Bafetimbi Gomis, we are likely to see the Swans continue to employ the target man tactic when it comes to Llorente, while looking for Borja Baston to feed off the big Spaniard.

Predictions
Swansea's season could all come down to have they start. Having lost so many of their key players over the last few years, I don't see the Swans keeping their head above water. There is always one shock relegation every year, and I see Swansea being that team.

Final position: 18th

Friday 12 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Sunderland

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
The inevitable great escape. Having occupied one of the bottom three slots more than any of their rivals (excluding the clearly doomed Aston Villa) last season, a change of management once again worked wonders for the Black Cats. Sam Allardyce, with all his experience of steering teams away from the drop, did exactly the same on Wearside. Even sweeter for Sunderland, it was their local rivals Newcastle that took their place in the second tier!

Backroom setup
However, the success experienced by Allardyce came at a cost for the Black Cats. Following the inept showing of the national team at Euro 2016, Allardyce had made it clear that he would be interested in replacing Roy Hodgson as England coach. After a brief interview period, which included the likes of Steve Bruce, Big Sam was selected as Hodgson's replacement, throwing the Wearside club back into uncertainty.

However, one relegation battle expert was replaced by another, with the appointment of David Moyes. Despite suffering a torrid time at Manchester United and Real Sociedad, Moyes has demonstrated his ability to manage in the Premier League, keeping Everton afloat and leading them to Europe in his 10 years in charge at Goodison. He will certainly look to stamp his authority on Sunderland early to get them pulling in the right direction.

Pre-season
Despite the uncertainty and backroom turmoil, the on-field staff seem to have not been affected, remaining unbeaten throughout their pre-season campaign. In particular, the squad finished with creditable 1-1 draws with both Montpellier and Borussia Dortmund, highlighting the strength of character at the club.

Before the marquee matches, the Black Cats had racked up four consecutive victories on their travels, both in the UK and France. Having started with a comfortable 3-0 win at Hartlepool, which saw Jermain Defoe blitz two in fifteen minutes, Sunderland edged out Rotherham in a 2-1 victory. Having travelled to the continent, two Duncan Watmore penalties saw them surpass Stade Nyonnais, before a tight 3-2 win over Dijon.

Squad and signings
Amidst all the chaos and confusion, little has been done in the way of signings so far this year, and the squad remains largely as it was at the end of last season. The club has made a couple of defensive signings, with the additions of Chelsea defensive reject Papy Djilobodji for £8m, as well as raiding Manchester United's youth team for Paddy McNair and Donald Love in a deal worth an estimated £5m. Moyes has also made it clear he would be interested in signing both Adnan Januzaj and Marouane Fellaini from Manchester United, but concedes the latter may well be too expensive.

The most high profile exit of the window so far has to be that of Emmanuele Giaccherini, despite an outstanding Euro 2016 with Italy. Having spent the majority of his time at Sunderland away from the Black Cats, he finally made his move back to Italy permanent with a £2m switch to Napoli. Santiago Vergini also made his way back to his native land in a £1.5m move to Boca Juniors, while there were free transfers for Danny Graham, Wes Brown and Steve Harper.

Tactics
Standard David Moyes tactics require the addition of a muscular man for target practice, having favoured the likes of Victor Anichebe and Yakubu in his Everton days. The acquisition of Fellaini would certainly cover that off, but may hinder the success of Jermain Defoe, who has proven positively prolific since his move to Wearside. That said, the bite in the midfield will remain in the form of Lee Cattermole, while I expect Wahbi Khazri to play a key role over the next 12 months.

Predictions
They will inevitably avoid relegation - it's just what they do. With Moyes at the helm, I actually expect them to to it more comfortably than last time. Not much more, but with a few games to spare.

Final position: 15th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Stoke City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Having thrown off the Tony Pulis shackles of long throws and borderline violent play, Stoke have slowly become one of the better footballing sides in the Premier League. Having attracted the likes of Marko Arnautovic, Bojan Krkic, and most impressively, Xherdan Shaqiri, Mark Hughes has the Potters playing like a top half side. It showed too, with Stoke finishing an impressive 9th, with their highest points tally of all time.

Backroom setup
Unsurprisingly, Mark Hughes is retained as coach, and will be charged with making his money continue to go further, as well as bringing in some defensive talent to even out the attacking flair currently at the club. Consistency was the only thing lacking last year, taking the Potters away from the European spots.

Pre-season
Bookended by disappointing results, Stoke's pre-season arguably didn't provide the greatest challenge for a Premier League club. With two games against Orlando City's A and B teams offering little in the way of true match practice, with the Potters winning against the first team 2-1, before a 5-0 hammering of the reserves. However, their other matches presented a greater problem than they should have done, beginning with a 3-0 defeat away at Championship Burton Albion.

Having done that, they could only manage a draw at Preston North End before heading stateside, with a 1-1 result hardly a convincing performance. While Mame Biram Diouf did manage goals in each of those three matches, any momentum that Stoke had built up was gone with a final match defeat at Hamburg, who narrowly avoided relegation from the Bundesliga last year.

Squad and signings
Mark Hughes has provided an overwhelming vote confidence in his Stoke squad, making just two signings for the first team. Most notably, the Potters signed defensive midfielder and 'Welsh Xavi' Joe Allen from Liverpool for a typically inflated £13m, while Ramadan Sobhi joined from Al Ahly for £5m.

Similarly, very little has happened on the reverse side, with only two first team players released in Steve Sidwell and Peter Odemwingie. Clearly, Hughes feels his squad has only improved since last year, and has the potential to compete with the sides around them, despite having spent considerable amounts.

Tactics
Far from the long ball tactics employed in the original Stoke City Premier League side, you can expect to see more of the slick football witnessed from the likes of Shaqiri, Arnautovic and Bojan. They will remain physically imposing at the back, but it's a much more attractive style of play than the Britannia Stadium became used to under Pulis.

Predictions
Stoke have been on a consistent roll, cementing themselves as a top half team in the last couple of years. I don't see that changing, but they may struggle over the coming years if more investment in players is not made.

Final position: 9th

Thursday 11 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Southampton

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
We're getting used to saying it when it comes to Southampton, but another surprisingly strong season for the Saints. Since coming back into the Premier League, the South Coast club have continued to outperform predictions, despite continuously losing their best players. However, once again last year, it was the performance of the manager that drew the most praise. Ronald Koeman, having added to his squad with the likes of centre back Virgil van Dijk, led the team to a 6th place finish, one place better than last year, and the highest placing since returning to the division.

Backroom setup
However, the adulation shown to Koeman by fans and pundits alike inevitably turned heads. At the end of last season, it became clear that Everton were head-hunting the Dutchman. While Southampton could not prevent him from leaving, they did at least manage to recoup £5m in compensation.

In his place came French veteran manager Claude Puel. Having spent his entire career in his home country with Monaco, Lille, Lyon and Nice, his lack of experience in the English game may be a blessing or a curse, and it will certainly be interesting to see how he stamps his authority on the team.

Pre-season
If pre-season is anything to go by, he has already made big steps with his current squad. Going unbeaten throughout their six matches, that includes key victories against PEC Zwolle (4-0), Twente  (2-1) and Athletic Bilbao (1-0). In particular, Charlie Austin and Shane Long have hit the ground running when it comes to finding the net, while defensively they have looked strong.

In their other three fixtures, they saw a 2-0 win over DC United's Under 23's, as well as a 1-0 win over Dutch side Groningen. In fact, the only match that prevented them maintaining a 100 per cent record was a 1-1 draw against Espanyol - a game that the Saints led for the vast majority. If this is anything to go by, Southampton are in great shape to start the season, and will look to maintain their momentum into their first match against Watford.

Squad and signings
Once again, it would appear that Southampton have lost some of their biggest name players, but history would suggest that this isn't the end of the world. The £61m recouped for Sadio Mane (Liverpool), Victor Wanyama (Tottenham) and Graziano Pelle (Shandong Luneng), making the latter the most-well paid sportsman on the planet, has enabled them to make a few additions, but they have yet to make a marquee signing.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg certainly has the potential to be a key player, with the ex-Bayern man already playing a role in pre-season, but the other signings of Nathan Redmond, Jeremy Pied and Alex McCarthy are hardly setting the world alight. With the funds they have, both from the television deal and the sales, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints active on deadline day - I wonder if Puel can borrow the Land Rover from Arry' for the big day?

Tactics
I'll admit, I'm not particularly familiar with the playing style of Claude Puel, so I can't honestly suggest a tactic that I expect to see from the Frenchman. However, the players that he has would dictate a quick pass and move game, utilising the wing-backs and looking to put Shane Long in behind at every available opportunity.

Predictions
I know we do this every year, but I expect this to be the season that the upward trajectory of the Saints end. Eventually, every team would miss their key players having sold the majority of them over the past three years, and while I expect them to steer well clear of relegation problems, I see them entering an area of mid-table mediocrity this season. The Europa League excursions will do them no favours, and will further deplete an already thin squad.

Final position: 12th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Middlesbrough

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
After a seven year absence from England's top flight, Middlesbrough secured a return by edging out Brighton on the final day of the Championship season in a winner takes all match. Thanks to their superior goal difference, the 1-1 draw against the Seagulls sent them up behind Burnley.

Backroom setup
Aitor Karanka retains his position at the helm of the club, and will be looking to consolidate their position back at the top table of English football. Unusually for a promoted side, there has been little drama surrounding the backroom, with no real suggestion that their coach is going to be snapped up by a rival.

Pre-season
This has enabled the Boro to focus entirely on their extensive pre-season campaign. Starting, as so many clubs did, with a brief stay in the UK, Middlesbrough headed out to Marbella for three games in the space of six days. Their UK tour was largely successful, winning 6-0 at York and 2-0 at Doncaster.

However, Marbella threw up a topsy-turvy set of results, with Boro losing to Real Betis 2-1 and drawing 2-2 with Alcorcon, both currently playing in Spain's second tier. Though they did finish off their trip to Europe with a 2-0 win over Egyptian side Al-Ahly, they had hardly been convincing throughout.

This inconsistency continued into the final fixtures, with a 3-1 win at relegated Aston Villa arguably the highlight of their pre-season, with goals from Alvaro Negredo, Jordan Rhodes and Viktor Fischer. However, subsequent goalless draws against both Udinese and Real Sociedad checked that momentum slightly, ending their pre-season on a bit of a flat note.

Squad and signings
Middlesbrough have arguably been the Del Boy of this season's transfer window, with the Teesside club looking to conduct the majority of their business in either the loan or free transfer market. However, you have to hand it to them, securing the signings of Champions League winning goalkeeper Victor Valdes, Brad Guzan, Bernardo Espinoza and Gaston Ramirez on frees, as well as free-scoring Alvaro Negredo on loan from Valencia.

In the biggest money move of the window, Atalanta midfielder Marten de Roon made a £12m switch, while Viktor Fischer swapped Amsterdam for Middlesbrough in a deal worth just shy of £4m.

Tactics
With the powerful Negredo expected to take his place as the lead striker, I'm expecting Boro to employ the flick-on to great effect, looking to use the pace of either Fischer or Downing in behind defences. Alternatively, the big Spaniard may choose to just be a battering ram, but either may well be extremely effective!

Defensively is where they may struggle, as I would expect Boro to see the vast minority of possession in most games. Here, a tight man-marking system must be employed, as even half a chance in this league usually results in a goal.

Predictions
With the addition of a number of Premier League quality players, including a couple who probably still deserve to be in Europe, I have the feeling that Middlesbrough will emulate the success seen by Watford last year. An upper second half of the table finish awaits as few teams will leave Teesside with maximum points.


Final position: 13th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Manchester United

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Despite an FA Cup sitting in the cabinet at Old Trafford, as well as coming razor close to pipping their local rivals to the final Champions League spot, the season has to be considered a disappointment for Manchester United. Over the last two years under the stewardship of Louis van Gaal, the club has produced less and less exciting football, with the chant 'attack, attack, attack' a regular occurrence at home games.

A fifth place finish is also by no means a successful investment of more than £200m, especially when you consider the progression of both Leicester City and Tottenham over the same period with comparatively less money.

Backroom setup
As a result, the Manchester United board felt that van Gaal did not represent the best way forward, relieving him of his duties just days after the FA Cup victory. In his place comes self-proclaimed 'Special One' Jose Mourinho, who has the winning mentality and potential to significantly change the fortunes of the club, as well as attract the attention of some of the largest names in the sport.

However, his managerial style does also draw criticism, with Mourinho's treatment of some of the older players already drawing heat from the footballing world. Bastian Schweinsteiger has already felt the wrath of the Special One, being forced to train with the reserves and kept separate from the first-team squad.

Pre-season
Mourinho has certainly had a topsy-turvy start to his Manchester United career, again exemplified by results in his pre-season matches. Beginning with a comfortable 2-0 win over Wigan Athletic, United were dismantled in their first International Champions Cup game against Borussia Dortmund. Despite a debut goal for ex-Dortmund player Henrikh Mkhitaryan, the Red Devils were thoroughly outclassed, losing 4-1. While they responded with an emphatic 5-2 win over Galatasaray in their next match, including a Zlatan Ibrahimovic bicycle kick, their momentum was checked slightly by both a cancellation of their derby match with Manchester City, as well as a boring 0-0 draw in their first game at Old Trafford under Mourinho, Wayne Rooney's testimonial against Everton.

The most indicative match of their pre-season was the Community Shield match against last season's champions Leicester, which saw the Red Devils produce a dominant performance. While a 2-1 victory, especially one claimed with a late goal, would suggest that the game was close, it was certainly true that United had it well under control throughout the 90.

Squad and signings
Without doubt, Manchester United have made the largest noise in the transfer market, making a number of high profile, and expensive, signings. With the news that Zlatan Ibrahimovic would be making the move from PSG on a free, United added a guaranteed 20-goals a season striker, something severely lacking from the last two years.

In addition, the club has added the £27m creative midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Dortmund, as well as the highly rated youngster Eric Bailly for £30m from Villarreal. However, the largest signing was saved for last, with the Red Devils blitzing the world record transfer fee for Paul Pogba, with figures in excess of £100m expected following performance bonuses and add ons. This may well complete the squad and put them firmly in the driving seat for the opening of the Premier League season, though discussions are apparently ongoing around the futures of Juan Mata, Marouane Fellaini and Adnan Januzaj.

Tactics
As with many Jose Mourinho teams, the use of the target man as a striker plays a key role. Watch out for Zlatan Ibrahimovic playing the Didier Drogba role, allowing the likes of Wayne Rooney and Anthony Martial time to damage their opponents, as well as the guile of Mkhitaryan and Pogba to unlock stubborn defences.

Predictions
They enter this season the undisputed favourites for their 21st title. With no Champions League commitments, they can place the vast majority of their focus on reclaiming their Premier League crown, and the depth of their squad should enable them to do exactly that. The only thing that can prevent them from doing this is either severe injury problems, or more crazed decisions by their new manager.

Final position: 1st

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Manchester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Despite a Champions League semi-final appearance, last season was ultimately one of disappointment for the Blues. A lighting fast start saw pundits blown away with the early form, but this quickly faded, leaving City floundering behind Leicester and challenging with their city rivals for the final Champions League spot, something only confirmed on the final day. A League Cup victory was scant consolation for the money invested, and the club's form following the announcement of Pep Guardiola's arrival will have concerned fans.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, in February 2016, Manuel Pellegrini made the announcement that Pep Guardiola, widely considered the greatest manager in the world, would be taking over at the Etihad in the summer. However, this had a dramatic impact on the club's form, with City falling from title contention to narrowly avoiding missing out on Champions League football. Guardiola's appointment was the end result of a long programme by City, which includes recent hirings of Barcelona' backroom staff, including Tiki Begiristain as Director of Football.

Pre-season
Guardiola has suffered a stop-start pre-season campaign, but the majority of their matches have been against clubs of the highest standard. City started with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Guardiola's old club Bayern Munich, before they embarked on their International Champions Cup campaign. After much debate over whether Guardiola would shake the hand of new Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho before their meeting, it all ended in an anti-climax as the match was abandoned due to bad weather.

However, Pep did manage to secure his first win with a 6-5 penalty shootout victory over Borussia Dortmund, following a 1-1 draw in normal time - a Sergio Aguero goal cancelled out by a last minute Christian Pulisic strike. Their final game was arguably their most disappointing, with a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal perhaps the most indicative of City's quality against their English rivals.

Squad and signings
After a slow start, City's activity has kicked into top gear in recent weeks, with seven signings to date. Youth has been a key focus for the club, with Spanish winger Nolito, signed from Celta Vigo for £13m, the only player over the age of 25. Ilkay Gundogan, the Dortmund central midfielder, became the first Guardiola signing for just £20m, while City made use of their links with Australian club Melbourne City to sign Aaron Mooy. With the only other signing, the young winger Aleksandr Zinchenko from Russian side Ufa, announced as we moved into August, the club has burst into life with a trio of signings in the space of four days. Winger Leroy Sane was signed from Schalke for £37m, while both Gabriel Jesus and Marlos Moreno joined from South America for a combined £31m.

The largest signing was, typically for City, English, with young centre back John Stones snared for an estimated £47.5m. While certainly an expensive purchase, much has been made of his likeness to past centre-back in Pep Guardiola's previous teams, including Gerard Pique - not faint praise indeed!

Despite the disappointment of last season, there have been relatively few outgoings from the club, despite many, including myself, predicting an exodus at the Blues. To date, only Martin Demichelis and Richard Wright have been released, as Guardiola seemingly looks to revive the fortunes of many of the current squad including Yaya Toure, Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas. While the omission of Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony and Eliaquim Mangala has led to speculation over their futures, little concrete has been discussed.

Tactics
As Fabian Delph has pointed out in interviews, Guardiola has already had a significant impact on the playing style of the squad, with an increased emphasis on keeping possession and moving the ball around quickly. With players of the quality of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne on the ball, it's not like he hasn't got the talent to apply this, but it will be more interesting to see how City do without the ball, as it is defensively where they have often been found wanting.

Predictions
With youth being the key focus for the Blues so far this year, I just get the feeling this may be one step too far for a title win this season. They'll likely run the eventual winners close, but may have to settle for second. Expect them to only get stronger and stronger over the next three years, as Guardiola looks to replicate the success he had at Barcelona.

Final position: 2nd

Wednesday 10 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Liverpool

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
A Europa League final cannot be considered a disappointment when it comes to the opening season of Jurgen Klopp, but a lot will rest on the German's ability to improve the club's league form. Since the near-title winning team of 2014, Liverpool have been on a decline, costing Brendan Rodgers his job. Last year was no different, with the Reds managing only an 8th place finish, despite an upturn since Klopp's appointment.

Backroom setup
Jurgen Klopp takes charge of his first full Premier League season, following huge success in the German league with Borussia Dortmund. He, as well as his coaches, will be looking to stamp his style on the squad, as well as making additions that work within his personal style.

Pre-season
2016/17 started with a hugely successful tour of the UK, with the Reds winning all four of their pre-season games without conceding a goal. While the argument could certainly be made that the quality of their opposition is questionable, it would no doubt have provided some much-needed confidence ahead of their appearance in the International Champions Cup. Wins against Tranmere Rovers (1-0), Fleetwood Town (5-0), Wigan Athletic (2-0) and Huddersfield Town (2-0) will have been pleasing for  Klopp, as well as the form of Danny Ings and Roberto Firmino, with two goals each.

The real challenge began with the later matches, with three games in their seven day stay in the United States. This began with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in a tetchy match, which saw a red card for Cesc Fabregas after a horror tackle on new signing Ragnar Klavan. However, the Reds bounced back with a comfortable 2-0 win over AC Milan, with goals from Origi and Firmino, before finishing with a disappointing 2-1 defeat to AS Roma.

However, Liverpool's best performance came in their penultimate pre-season game, as Barcelona visited Wembley Stadium to take on the Reds. However, the Catalans will have left the UK with their tails firmly between their legs, as Liverpool ran riot to win 4-0, setting them up perfectly for their opening league game. While a completely changed 11 lost by the same scoreline to Mainz 24 hours later, I don't see this being a significant bump to their momentum.

Squad and signings
It's already been a busy summer for Jurgen Klopp, as he looks to stamp his authority on his Liverpool squad. More than £65m has already been spent, with big-money moves for Premier League stars Sadio Mane (£34m) and Georgina Wijnaldum (£25m) from Southampton and Newcastle respectively, while Klopp has also raided the Bundesliga for cheaper buys. Centre-back from Klavan was bought from Augsburg for £4.2m, while Liverpool's goalkeeping options have been expanded with the signings of Loris Karius from Mainz for £4.7m and Alex Manninger for free from Augsburg. Finally, Joel Matip was also brought in from the Bundesliga on a free to complete the defensive lineup.

They have been able to recoup nearly £50m through the sale of a number of their young stars. In particular, Bournemouth shelled out a combined £21m for Jordon Ibe and Brad Smith, while Jerome Sinclair exited for Watford in a £4m deal. On top of that, both Joe Allen and Martin Skrtel were deemed surplus to requirements at Anfield, drawing valuations of £13m and £5m respectively.

Tactics
Pass and move is what it's going to be about this year, as Klopp will look to exploit the ability and vision of his midfield players, including James Milner, Phillipe Coutinho Wijnaldum, Henderson and Mane. Expect the Reds to also use width to get Mane and Daniel Sturridge in behind, and Christian Benteke may find himself able to gather a few more goals from crosses.

Predictions
While Liverpool have the manager to challenge the upper echelons of the division, they do not yet have the squad capable, in my opinion. Their biggest signings have been of mid-table players, paying huge sums, which would seem to indicate their ambitions for this year. They certainly have the potential for the coming years, but this may be yet another 'development' season for the Reds. I do still think they will beat their Merseyside rivals.

Final position: 6th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Leicester City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
The greatest shock in sporting history. Everyone, including myself, said they couldn't keep it up, that they would fold under the pressure. However, this just seemed to galvanise Claudio Ranieri's team, with the likes of Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kante catching the eye with their consistency and flair.

In the end, they ran out comfortable winners, leading Arsenal by 10 points to claim their first league title in their history, and ensure Gary Lineker does the first Match of the Day in his underwear this season!

Backroom setup
Unsurprisingly, the Leicester board decided to keep Ranieri on this year, as well as the majority of his backroom staff. However, they did suffer a blow, seeing talent spotter Steve Walsh, behind the signings of some of their title-winning stars, poached by Everton.

Pre-season
A relatively short pre-season for the champions, but certainly testing! While they started and ended with relatively easier fixtures, with a 2-1 win against Oxford United and a XX over Chesterfield, they did have the season-opening Charity Shield match against Manchester United to contend with. However, in the middle was the little matter of the International Champions Cup, starting with a narrow 6-5 penalties win over Celtic after a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.

The latter two games were daunting, however, with Paris Saint Germain teaching the Foxes a footballing lesson in a 4-0 thrashing. They did put on a better showing in a 4-2 defeat against Barcelona, but were again exposed as inexperienced at the highest level, which will make their inaugural Champions League season an interesting one.

The Foxes' pre-season came to a close with the Charity Shield match against Manchester United. Despite a valient showing, the Foxes were on the back foot for the entirety of the game, with a Marouane Fellaini mistake enabling Jamie Vardy the opportunity to level at 1-1. However, a late Zlatan Ibrahimovic header meant that they didn't hold on, sinking to a 2-1 defeat.

Squad and signings
Most importantly for Leicester was retaining the talent that managed to get them to the title last year. While they have lost N'Golo Kante to Chelsea for £32m, both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez opted against joining Arsenal to remain with the Foxes.

In addition, Ranieri looked to strengthen further, bringing in a number of strong names from around Europe. Before the window had barely begun, Leicester had announced the signing of German goalkeeper Ron-Robert Zieler to challenge Kasper Schmeichel for the number 1 spot. Defenders Luis Hernandez and Napalys Mendy joined for free and £13m respectively from Sporting Gijon and Nice, while there were attacking reinforcements in Raul Rubio, Bartosz Kaputska and Ahmed Musa, again breaking the Foxes transfer record.

However, the main question is are these signings of a high enough quality to keep the Premier League's giants at bay this year?

Tactics
As champions, the Foxes will go into this season with just as much confidence, so the same tactics are likely to apply. Expect Leicester to avoid the ball more often than not, and look to provide counter-attacks with blistering speed. The signing of Musa will certainly aid in this, with the pace to rival Jamie Vardy, as well as providing the ideal foil for Riyad Mahrez.

Predictions
Can the Foxes shock the world again? In my opinion, no. They will certainly command greater respect than at the start of last year, but I would expect to see Leicester fall back into the upper mid-table, with a challenge for Europa League football probably the best they can expect. With an increasingly congested fixture list thanks to the Champions League, I just don't think the squad is deep enough to compete with the top teams, and will see them consolidate their status this year.

Final position: 7th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Hull City

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
After a disappointing relegation from the top division, as many teams do, Hull struggled to come to grips with the fast paced and unpredictable nature of the Championship. However, having put together a strong run of form in the middle of the year, the Tigers found themselves firmly in the relegation shake-up, fading slightly to finish in the playoffs.

Having narrowly dispatched Derby 3-2, despite having a 3-0 lead from the first leg, Hull travelled to Wembley for the most valuable match in football against Sheffield Wednesday. Despite a tense encounter, the Tigers secured a 1-0 win thanks to Mohamed Diame, ensuring an immediate return to the top tier.

Backroom setup
Following this success, and the resignation of Roy Hodgson as England manager, Steve Bruce found himself on the shortlist for the next national coach. Naturally, this turned the head of the Englishman, publicly stating so in interviews. However, soon he would find that far from securing the England job, he actually didn't have a club role, with differences with the board seeing him leave Hull.

With Mike Phelan taking caretaker control of the Tigers for the start of the season, he must see it as a great job application to get off to a good start in the Premier League, but a poor one could be extremely damaging, both to his and the club's return.

Pre-season
Despite the uncertainty surrounding their manager, the Hull team have enjoyed a successful pre-season, though it must be said that the majority of their matches have involved teams well below their level. Starting with a disappointing 0-0 draw against Grimsby, Hull have since secured wins against North Ferriby United (2-0), Mansfield Town (1-0), Scunthorpe United (2-0) and Nottingham Forest (2-1), with another draw against Barnsley (2-2).

However, their greatest challenges came in their last two games. Having travelled to Austria, the Tigers made the trip worth it with an excellent 3-1 win over Turkish side Caykur Rizaspor, with Abel Hernandez netting a brace. However, in arguably their most difficult test, they came up short against Torino in a narrow 2-1 defeat.

Squad and signings
Not much to report as yet in all honesty. Just Will Mannion from AFC Wimbledon in, and just Sone Aluko and Ryan Taylor released, while Mohamed Diame made a £4m move to Newcastle. Surely they'll make something happen in the next few weeks when the next manager is appointed?

Tactics
Without a new manager, it's difficult to say how Hull will play, but given that the majority of the side remain from that relegated the season before last, they have to do something differently. Using the pace of Abel Hernandez may have an advantage, but you do fear for the Tigers without any clear direction.

Predictions
Uncertainty is a form killer, and if you don't have any idea about how to get form in the first place, it may well destroy the club's momentum before the season even begins. Regardless of who is brought in, two weeks is nowhere near enough time to put together a team, so expect a sluggish start. Let's just hope it's not terminal.

Final position: 19th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Everton

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Overall, it's another year of disappointment for the Goodison Park faithful, who felt that the 11th place return did not represent the potential of the squad - 13 points behind their city rivals. Though the club did reach the semi-finals of both the League and FA Cups, losing out narrowly to both Manchester clubs, Roberto Martinez was deemed surplus to requirements after poor league form.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, Martinez, who enjoyed an outstanding first season at Everton, finishing 5th, could not survive the second 11th place finish in two years. However, Bill Kenwright moved quickly to replace the Spaniard, bringing in Ronald Koeman from Southampton for an estimated fee of £5m. The Dutchman had enjoyed a hugely successful year at the Saints, and had demonstrated his ability to sign players with a relatively small budget, securing the signings of the likes of Sadio Mane, Dusan Tadic, Graziano Pelle and Fraser Forster.

In addition, the Toffees pulled off a coup, poaching the Leicester talent spotter Steve Walsh, behind some of the key individuals at the heart of their Premier League success: N'Golo Kante, Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez.

Pre-season
The Koeman era certainly got off to a strong start, with successive victories against Czech side Jablonec, Barnsley and the MK Dons, conceding just one goal and scoring seven. However, their pre-season has hit the buffers in recent matches, with two games in Dresden yielding a draw and a defeat to Real Betis and Dynamo Dresden respectively. However, Gerard Deulofeu's early form will have pleased Koeman, with three goals in four games putting him in a good place for the start of the season.

The final games will have done little to lighten the mood at Goodison. I think the best thing I can say about the Wayne Rooney testimonial is that Everton played in it, while they finished their pre-season with a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Espanyol. With no win in four, it's hardly the form Everton will be looking for to start the year!

Squad and signings
Bubbling but not yet reached the boiling. With just the signings of Dutch international Maarten Stekelenburg and Idrissa Gueye to show for their efforts so far in terms of first team players, I'm convinced that more will be coming over the next few weeks. There have been strong links to both Ashley Williams and Yannick Bolasie over recent days, which indicates their intention, but they will be keen to get something completed quickly to bed them in.

However, as with so many mid-table Premier League clubs, much will depend on the outgoings. To date, Everton have looked to clear out many of the ageing stars that have carried them through the last five seasons, with Tim Howard returning to America with the Colorado Rapids, and Leon Osman, Tony Hibbert and Steven Pienaar all being shown the door. With John Stones also making a £47.5m switch to Manchester City, Everton now have plenty of funds to play with, so expect some fireworks over the coming weeks as the club look to take advantage.

Tactics
It will be interesting to see how Everton's on field play changes with the appointment of Koeman. There are certainly similarities with the Dutchman's Southampton side, with a number of flair midfielders and a big target man of a striker. We may see Ross Barkley given more freedom to become a Sadio Mane type attacking midfielder, while Lukaku will likely be given less balls to run onto and more heading to do as Lennon and Deulofeu look to whip crosses in. In addition, Baines and Coleman are likely to be given even more license to get forward to mirror Cedric and Bertrand for the Saints last year.

Predictions
There is no doubt that Everton have the talent to break into the top 10 consistently, and now they have a manager capable of taking them there. However, I would have to say that they need to make a couple of solid additions before their squad is complete - if they make them I may revise this, but I'm going in the lower reaches of the top 10 for the first Koeman season.

Final position: 8th

Tuesday 9 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Chelsea

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
An absolute disaster. The 2014/15 champions suffered one of the worst title defences of all time, struggling around the relegation zone for the first six months of the season. Having released Jose Mourinho for the second time, the team steadied under the stewardship of Guus Hiddink, eventually finishing tenth. With no other success in cup competitions, including a disappointing Champions League campaign.

Backroom setup
After 12 months of turbulence, with firstly Jose Mourinho and then Guus Hiddink as managers. With the latter always a short-term replacement, the club knew that the summer was going to be crucial. With many of their rivals also making managerial appointments, Chelsea needed someone high profile. Antonio Conte fit the bill perfectly, but it will be interesting to see whether the players deal with his tough-talking technique.

Pre-season
Before entering into the International Champions Cup, set to really provide a stern challenge, the Blues took a tour of Austria to warm up. However, no-one told Rapid Wien to go easy, with Chelsea suffering a 2-0 defeat in their first game. Though this was a youthful side, it was hardly the ideal start for Conte. Nevertheless, successive strong victories without conceding would follow, beating Wolfsberger 3-0 and unknown quantity Atus Ferlach 8-0, with Pedro, Remy, Mikel and new signing Michy Batshuayi all on target.

The International Champions Cup saw the Blues pitted against Liverpool, Real Madrid and AC Milan. Though Chelsea scored early to get the best of their Premier League rivals in a feisty 1-0 win, they struggled to get to grips with a weakened Madrid side, going 3-0 down early thanks to goals from Marcelo and Mariano. Though Hazard pulled two back in the late stages, they couldn't fight back. There was better news from their final two games, with successive wins over AC Milan (3-1) and Werder Bremen (4-2) putting the Blues in a strong position for the start of the season.

Squad and signings
As with behind the scenes, there have been changes to the Chelsea squad, though not perhaps as many as some were expecting. There have been big money moves for both Batshuayi and N'Golo Kante, who performed so admirably for Leicester in their title win last season, both valued at around £30m, with the only exits a number of loans. However, with the aberration of last year for the Blues, I would expect to see more comings and goings from Stamford Bridge in the remainder of the window.

Tactics
Conte has been synonymous with strong physical players during his time as Italian coach, and has seemed to favour a 3-5-2 formation. Whether he will translate that to Chelsea is unclear, though his intent to keep Juan Cuadrado, who had seemed on his way out just a few months ago, perhaps highlights that he could be keeping this tactic in his back pocket if it is required. Much more will be expected of both Fabregas and Hazard as a creative force this year if Chelsea are to be successful.

Predictions
Simply, there is no way that Chelsea can be as bad this year as they were last. While form is temporary, class is permanent, and without the distraction of the Champions League this season, I would fully expect to see them challenging towards the top few places. I still feel that they are lagging slightly behind both Manchester clubs in terms of quality, but I think they will cement their place as best of the rest this season, and may put together a more cohesive push next term.

Final position: 3rd

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Crystal Palace

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
After a start that promised much, the 2015/16 league season will go down as a great disappointment for the Eagles, ending in 15th place, despite the presence of stars like Yannick Bolasie, Wilfried Zaha and Yohan Cabaye. Though Alan Pardew will point to two visits to Wembley in the FA Cup, narrowly missing out to Manchester United, an improvement in the league will be required this year.

Backroom setup
Despite the vacant England post undoubtedly turning his head, Palace retain the services of Alan Pardew, with coaches and other backroom staff remaining the same.

Pre-season
I think the best way to describe the six warm-up matches is underwhelming. Just three wins yielded from these games, against US second division side Cincinnati and at English lower league sides Colchester and AFC Wimbledon, the latter pair by just the single goal. The Eagles' tour of the US also contained two games against MLS teams, with draws against Vancouver Whitecaps and Philadelphia Union.

Despite a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Fulham, who narrowly avoided relegation from the Championship last year, the pre-season ended well for the London club, picking up wins against Bromley and, most impressively, Valencia as they built some much needed momentum.

Squad and signings
It's been a real clearing out job at Crystal Palace, with a number of old mainstays either being released or sold. Top of the bill is the £10m sale of Dwight Gayle to recently relegated Newcastle, with free transfers for Adrian Mariappa, Marouane Chamakh, Emmanuel Adebayor and Brede Hangeland.

In their place, the scouts at Palace have more than done their job with a couple of excellent signings. James Tomkins, the captain of West Ham United, was recruited for £10m, while Andros Townsend moved from Newcastle in a £13m deal. The best, however, was the free transfer of ex-France international goalkeeper Steve Mandanda, who is certainly more than capable of saving a few points!

Tactics
With the signing of Townsend, as well as the plethora of wingers already at the club, with the likes of Bolasie, Zaha and Puncheon, it would come as little surprise that I feel that utilising the width will bring the greatest reward for Palace. While Cabaye will continue to pull the strings in the middle of the park, it will be up to those flair players to create the majority of the chances and goals. However, they could use a 20-25 goal a season striker, as Connor Wickham and Fraizer Campbell aren't quite there.

Predictions
While the signings of Mandanda and Tomkins will sure up the defensive side, I'm not convinced that Palace have the attacking threat to chase a place in Europe. While I don't think they'll have the same distractions as last season, they're not going to be the Leicester of this year. I do think they'll keep some way from relegation this time.

Final position: 11th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Burnley

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
Burnley return to the Premier League after a hugely successful Championship season, claiming the title by five points. In particular, Andre Gray was a revelation at that level, claiming the Golden Boot by some margin, with an impressive total of 25 goals.

Backroom setup
As was to be expected, nothing to report following the promotion, with Sean Dyche retaining his position as manager, and the backroom staff remaining largely the same as the club looks to maintain the strong performance that took them to the title.

Pre-season
Unusually, with two weeks until the start of the season, Burnley have completed all of their pre-season matches, with the vast majority of them in the UK. Even more pleasing for the clarets will be that they've gone unbeaten during the five matches played, with Andre Gray in outsanding form. Starting with a double in Burnley's 3-1 win in France at Stade Nyonnais, Gray has scored eight goals in the five matches, including a hat trick in the final match at Ibrox in the 3-1 win.

Sandwiched between these results were a 1-1 draw at Morecambe, a 4-1 win at Bradford and a 2-1 win at Bolton. All lower league opposition, but building momentum nonetheless. Expect Turf Moor to be a fortress on the opening day against Swansea.

Squad and signings
Much has been made of the money floating around in football now, and while it has become obscene, you now have to spend money to make money. Sean Dyche clearly feels he doesn't have that option, with his thinly veiled criticism of the club's owners, suggesting that the money to make signings is not available to him. So far, he has made three signings - the duo of Nick Pope and Johann Gudmundsson from Charlton Athletic, recently relegated from the Championship, as well as youngster Jimmy Dunne from Manchester United - hardly groundbreaking!

In fairness, at least they have managed to keep the majority of the side that got them there, releasing a number of ageing stars and losing both Joey Barton and Matt Gilks to Rangers. But is a Championship quality side capable of keeping pace in the Premier League?

Tactics
I think in order to compete on the highest level, Burnley may have to mix their tactics up, reverting to the old traditional English methods of long ball football. Making Turf Moor somewhere that no-one wants to visit is key, and using Tony Pulis's Stoke as a style to replicate would be best, assuming they don't find the money to invest in some flair players.


Predictions
As is the case with any promoted team, home form is going to be crucial. However, despite the form of Andre Gray, who will inevitably go through a lean spell in the Premier League at some point, I just don't think Burnley have the financial or playing quality to keep their heads above water. While this season will certainly line the coffers at Turf Moor, I don't see them staying for another one.

Final position: 20th

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Bournemouth

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:


Last season
An overwhelming success for their first season in the Premier League, Bournemouth more than held their own in the country's top league. A number of high profile scalps, including Manchester United at home, led the Cherries to a respectable 16th place, five clear of the relegation zone and five below 11th.

Backroom setup
Despite rumours that England came calling for Eddie Howe (which I would definitely have liked more than Sam Allardyce - sorry Bournemouth fans!), it's no change at the Vitality Stadium. The league's youngest manager remains in charge to handle the tricky second season.

Pre-season
Five pre-season matches for the Cherries to prepare for the new Premier League, starting with a resounding 4-0 win against US second division side Minnesota United in the USA. Both Callum Wilson and Lewis Grabban hit the target with an own goal taking Bournemouth to a comfortable win. Their following match back on English soil was less comfortable, however. A thrilling South Coast derby with Portsmouth saw both teams hold the lead, with Portsmouth rescuing a draw in the final moments.

While Bournemouth would remain unbeaten throughout the remainder of their warm-up games, every win would be punctuated with draws. A trip to the Madejski Stadium led to a 1-1 draw, before a narrow victory over Cardiff. While the Cherries did draw their final game, it was against Valencia, so they can certainly enter into the new season with some confidence.

Squad and signings
The most important thing, as for many of the lower-mid table Premier League teams, is to avoid losing their top stars. On the whole, Bournemouth have done exactly that. Though they've lost both Matt Richie and Tommy Elphick to relegated Newcastle and Aston Villa respectively, they've recouped more than enough to fund some serious transfers of their own.

The headline move was for Liverpool's Jordon Ibe, with a £15m tag potentially pricey. Youth has certainly been the order of the day for the Cherries, adding Liverpool's Brad Smith, Lewis Cook from Leeds, as well as Nathan Ake on loan. In total, Bournemouth have signed eight players, with none over the age of 25.

Tactics
With the second season traditionally tricky, I hope Bournemouth continue to play the same attacking football that earned them such praise last year. I think they will, and the width provided by Max Gradel and Jordon Ibe is likely to play a crucial role, with full backs Ake and the returning Tyrone Mings to provide support on the overlap.

Predictions
As we have seen time and time again with recently promoted teams, the second season syndrome is real. I feel that while I enjoy Bournemouth's attacking football, the inexperience in the squad in terms of Premier League football could lead them into a nervous situation, and it will take real heart to get them out of it. I think they will, but just.

Final position: 17th

Monday 8 August 2016

PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Arsenal

Following arguably the most surprising Premier League season in the history of the competition, I thought I'd test my predictive powers on the upcoming year. In this series, I will profile the clubs involved in this season, covering the big summer changes, expected tactics, and recent performance, before making a judgement on the team as a whole.

I'll start my roundup with Arsenal.

Last season
Despite the club achieving its highest finish for more than a decade, securing the 2nd spot on the final day by pipping local rivals Tottenham, last season still goes down as a disappointment for Arsene Wenger's men, finishing 10 points behind champions Leicester. With their main title rivals all failing to maintain any consistency, it was seen as Arsenal's biggest chance to win their first championship since 2004. Throw in disappointing exits to both the FA Cup and Champions League, and there were once again calls for the head of the manager.

Backroom changes
Despite the pressure being put on him, Wenger has endured to start his 21st season at the helm of the Gunners. In line with that, there have not been all that many changes at the Emirates off the pitch, with the only news to emerge from the club that legend Thierry Henry would leave his role as under-18s coach to focus on his punditry career.

Pre-season
Just the four fixtures for the Arsenal squad to warm themselves up, with the planned fixture against French side Lens abandoned due to the terrorist atrocities seen. Of the matches played, the Gunners saw a narrow 2-1 win over the MLS All-Stars, with youngster Chuba Akpom adding to a Joel Campbell goal late on.

The Gunners have maintained a strong momentum heading into the Premier League, with convincing wins over Guadalajara, Viking and, most impressively, Manchester City, with the latter a 3-2 thriller in Gothenburg.

Squad and Signings
With stupid sums of money flying around this summer, it came as no surprise to anyone that Wenger announced he would not be spending large amounts on transfers this summer, with the £35m signing of Swiss international Granit Xhaka expected to be the most expensive move. In addition to this headline signing, Arsenal have added youngsters Takuma Asano and Rob Holding from Hiroshima Sanfrecce and Bolton Wanderers respectively.

However, their largest exploits have yet to come off, with approaches for both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez being given the cold shoulder by the individuals.

In terms of exits, Arsenal fans will be pleased that there have been no significant departures, with the releases of ageing stars Mathieu Flamini, Mikel Arteta and Tomas Rosicky the most high profile, as well as a few loans.

Tactics
Exactly the same as it has been the last 20 seasons, namely, quick pass and move football on a slick surface. With Olivier Giroud still the main striker, expect to see some long balls for the Frenchman to hold up when the team is under pressure.

Prediction
While pundits like Martin Keown and Ian Wright will once again proclaim that 'this just feels like Arsenal's year', I just don't see it. The fact that they feel unable to keep up financially with their rivals tells you that they are not in the same fight. For me, it seems set to be another North London competition, but this time for a place in the Champions League rather than the title. As they have done so often in the past, it's a battle I see the Gunners winning.

Final position: 4th

Wednesday 3 August 2016

England Managers: What Does An Illustrious Club Career Actually Mean?

After the aberration of England's Euro 2016 exit to Iceland, it was clear that the tenure of Roy Hodgson was over. Cue a narrow, and slightly xenophobic search for England's next manager. From, let's be honest, a rather shallow pool of candidates, came the rather underwhelming announcement of Sam Allardyce. The ex-Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham, Blackburn and Sunderland manager has never really hit the heights in his club career, but was given the top job regardless.

However, how important is a successful club manager in the international game? To figure this out, I've looked back at the past 25 years of successful and failed England managers to compare their win rates, which should hopefully highlight a discernible trend.


Name
Clubs managed (pre-England)
W
D
L
Win rate
England win rate
Tournament high
Kevin Keegan
Newcastle United, Fulham
176
63
73
56.4%
38.89%
Group stage Euro 2000
Fabio Capello
AC Milan, Real Madrid, Roma, Juventus
311
165
79
56%
66.67%
R16 World Cup 2010
Sven Goran Eriksson
Goteborg, Benfica, Roma, Fiorentina, Sampdoria, Lazio
402
205
157
52.6%
59.7%
QF World Cup 2002, Euro 2004, World Cup 2006
Graham Taylor
Lincoln, Watford, Aston Villa
372
210
237
45.4%
47.3%
Group stage Euro 1992
Terry Venables
Crystal Palace, Queens Park Rangers, Barcelona, Tottenham Hotspur
297
193
183
44.1%
47.83%
SF Euro 1996
Sir Bobby Robson
Fulham, Ipswich
326
182
241
43.5%
49.47%
SF World Cup 1990
Roy Hodgson
18 clubs and countries, inc Inter Milan, Switzerland, Copenhagen, Liverpool
403
285
257
42.6%
58.93%
QF Euro 2012
Steve McClaren
Middlesbrough
97
60
93
38.8%
50%
Qualification Euro 2008
Glenn Hoddle
Swindon Town, Chelsea
102
86
84
37.5%
60.71%
R16 World Cup 1998

Looking at the statistics, it's interesting to see that arguably the three most successful England managers of the past quarter of a century (Sir Bobby Robson, Terry Venables and Sven Goran Eriksson) do not top the table when it comes to either club win rate, or indeed England win rate, with Fabio Capello and Glenn Hoddle, at the bottom when it comes to his club career, actually topping the England win percentage table.

From the table above, it certainly appears that there is no real rhyme or reason behind the club/national win ratios. It's absolutely not the case that the higher your win rate in club football, the higher your England win rate, or the more successful your career. If anything, it's slightly the opposite. Not so much in terms of percentages, but in terms of tournament performance, with the only semi final appearances in the last quarter century coming from individuals that have around 45 per cent win rates. However, the three below Venables and Robson have hardly done well in tournaments!

Interestingly, Sam Allardyce's current club win ratio stands at around 39 per cent across his time at a number of clubs including Bolton, Blackburn, Newcastle, Sunderland and West Ham United. I know we've just proven that this ultimately means very little, but it's interesting to see that he's not too far from the percentage of Steve McClaren at Middlesbrough (and we all know how that turned out!).

On a separate note, I'm always rather bemused by the immediate assumption that we'll only pick an Englishman. Why? One of our more successful managers of the last quarter of a century was foreign, and given the following couple of white, middle aged, dull Englishmen ultimately failing (ignoring the tumultuous reign of Fabio Capello), I don't understand why it isn't considered. It would be completely understandable to pick an Englishman if we invested in young talent for the long term. For example, my pick for the job was Bournemouth's Eddie Howe. Now, I know this is possibly asking too much in today's game, but give him as much time as he needs (almost regardless of results in the short term), because as Man United proved, only through patience can you reach your potential.

Alternatively, there was a Premier League winner available, with a management style that would certainly suit the typically reserved English style. Manuel Pellegrini has shown himself to value attacking and free-flowing football, which would certainly resonate with the English fans following the arguably defensive style of Roy Hodgson, while also being astute and softly spoken in interviews.

However, there is no use crying over spilt milk (a phrase I've never really understood the origins of - I mean, who's that upset at the concept of wasted calcium?), so we have to work with what we've got i.e. Big Sam. With him at the helm, and uncertainty already around the captaincy, who do we see coming into the squad, given his previous playing styles? Obviously, a lot will rest on form, but all things being even, this is my prediction for his first 25-man England squad:

Goalkeepers: Joe Hart (Manchester City), Fraser Forster (Southampton), Jack Butland (Stoke City)

Defenders: Danny Rose (Tottenham Hotspur), Aaron Cresswell (West Ham United), Chris Smalling (Manchester United), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), John Stones (Everton), Phil Jagielka (Everton), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), Nathaniel Clyne (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Tottenham Hotspur)

Midfielders: Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Mark Noble (West Ham United), James Milner (Liverpool), Eric Dier (Tottenham Hotspur), Adam Lallana (Liverpool), Ross Barkley (Everton), Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)

Strikers: Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Jamie Vardy (Leicester City), Jermain Defoe (Sunderland), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Andy Carroll (West Ham United)