As someone who frequently places bets on the weekend's action, I shudder to think the odds that last weekend's achievement would have drawn at the start of the season. To score in three straight games is a run of good form for any striker, but to do it in 10 is nothing short of extraordinary.
And if that wasn't enough, Jamie Vardy has done it in a side hardly recognised as world-beaters. Ok, the fact that Leicester currently sit proudly atop the Premier League seems to undermine that argument somewhat. However, speaking of odds, I wonder what bookies would have laid on the Foxes topping the table after 12 games? My point is, few would have ever expected that the side that struggled to escape relegation last term would have found within their midst a true Premier League predator capable of this feat.
However, ever the cynic, I feel the need to dampen the enthusiasm of Leicester fans who will undoubtedly proclaim Jamie Vardy's goalscoring run the 'greatest of all time' - let's just hope they can do it in a more intelligent way than the current chant of 'Jamie Vardy's having a party'. Lyrical genius... And we wonder why the music industry is dumbing down!
Let's start by looking at the man whose record he could usurp if he nets against Manchester United next weekend: ironically enough, United hitman Ruud van Nistelrooy. Now, in order to gauge the achievements of the pair, and accurately compare them, we have to understand the circumstances under which they were done. I have already mentioned the fact that Vardy has completed this nine game run in a side hardly recognised as a league leader, while van Nistelrooy was part of the United side that bulldozed its way through everyone in the early 2000's. So, on the face of it, 1-0 Vardy, right?
Well, I wanted to delve a little deeper than that. It is also worthwhile considering the opponents that these goals came against. To score nine games in a row is impressive regardless, but scoring against eight of the top ten in the league is certainly more so than knocking in goals against the lesser sides.
When looking at van Nistelrooy's run, we see he scored 15 goals in his 10 games, with hat tricks against Fulham and Charlton, and a brace at home to Liverpool. In those games, he scored against the sides in 14th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 10th, 12th, 7th, 8th and 5th. If we were to average this out, it equates to 7th place - a pretty impressive feat for anyone. If we compare this with Jamie Vardy's recent form, we see quite a different story. His ten games have him scoring 12 goals, with braces against Arsenal and Southampton - ironically the two most difficult sides the Foxes have faced during this run. The teams he has scored against currently sit in 19th, 20th, 11th, 4th, 16th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 13th and 17th, giving Vardy an average of 13th place. I think this is emphatically 1-1.
There are a few more important factors to take into account. Firstly, it's worth noting that van Nistelrooy's run did come over two different seasons, with the last two games the start of the 2003/2004 season. I'm not sure if that removes a little of the gloss off his achievement or adds to it. On the one hand, it could have taken pressure off the Dutchman towards the end of the run, as he may not have remembered his strong form at the start of the new year. However, it could also be the case that it made it more difficult, as momentum and form plays a huge part in the continuing success, and any break in time could have an adverse effect on the mindset of the striker involved.
However, if this was going to be a negative, we should certainly bear in mind the fact that, including all competitions, Ruud van Nistelrooy actually went on a 12 game scoring streak in 2003. This was the previously mentioned eight Premier League games, in addition to Champions League goals, both home and away, against Real Madrid, and goals for Holland against the Czech Republic and Moldova. He therefore completed both a long term run based on momentum, and a run over the course of two seasons.
In comparison, if other competitions were included in Jamie Vardy's current run, the striker would only actually have managed a four game scoring streak, as Premier League games were punctuated by goalless appearances in the Capital One Cup and the England team. Is that really so impressive?
It certainly isn't when we compare it to the all-time greats, and longest scoring streaks. Josef Bican's incredible 19-game run for Slavia Prague has been going strong since 1939, only matched by Lionel Messi (who else) in 2013. Some argue that as Messi was then injured and never got the chance to continue the record, we will never know how far he could have gone, and some even count the two goals he scored immediately after his return as part of the record, but I don't buy it.
To put it in perspective, should we even be that overawed by the achievement of scoring in 10 straight? Below is the list of the 10 longest goal streaks in history, all of whom have gone significantly beyond the feat achieved in the Premier League:
Longest goalscoring runs in history:
19: Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona 2012–13)
19: Josef Bican (SK Slavia Praha 1939–40)
16: Gerd Müller (FC Bayern München 1969–70)
16: Teodor Peterek (Ruch Chorzów 1937–38)
15: Filip Johansson (IFK Göteborg 1924–25)
15: Tor Henning Hamre (FC Flora Tallinn 2003)
15: Fin Døssing (Dundee United FC 1964–65)
14: Fernando Gomes (FC Porto 1984–85)
13: Serge Masnaghetti (Valenciennes FC 1962–63)
13: Peter Dubovský (ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1991–92)
13: Tom Phillipson (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1926–27)
With this in mind, Jamie Vardy's run is the best moment of his career so far, and certainly warrants congratulations, but as with so many things, we have a tendency to get carried away by feats, particularly when completed by an Englishman. However, Vardy needs to go some to match the greatest ever, and I'd argue that he needs to consistently score against better opposition to be considered alongside Ruud van Nistelrooy as a top striker. Hang on, I'm sure I came to a similar conclusion about another overrated English striker...
In any case, while I hope I'm proven wrong, I do fully expect this run to come to an end against Manchester United this weekend. United have proven their ability to mark better players than Vardy out of the game, and I suspect the Foxes will find it much harder to score. He may still finish as top scorer this season, but at some point in the season, he will have a lean spell and it is always the mark of a good striker to see how he recovers from that.
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Saturday 28 November 2015
Tuesday 3 November 2015
London Marathon 2016: My Personal Challenge
Though this is a sporting post, and therefore in-keeping with the theme of my blog, it is significantly different from anything I've ever written about before. I found out this week that I will be part of the Mind team running the 2016 London Marathon on 24 April.
To provide you with a bit of background - I've never been one to take on outlandish challenges, preferring instead to make my life as consistent as possible. However, over the last 12 months, I have been presented with many challenging changes that were beyond my control, a number of which I am still struggling with. With this in mind, I felt like I needed to provide myself with a challenge of my choice, that I could manage and control.
Having always been sporty, playing a combination of football and tennis as a child, I know I am fairly good when it comes to running. However, I have never entered any formal running event, with the furthest I had run until recently a 10k at my local park. This therefore provides me with a decent base, while giving me the potential to challenge myself in a more controlled environment.
I do, however, have a tendency to get carried away, which perhaps explains my decision to skip a few steps and go straight for the most gruelling, exhausting type of race in the world. Most people would probably build up with some 10k's and then a few halves - would certainly have made the prospect easier!
Other than my own tendencies, there was another reason to jump straight into the marathon. Having found out that Mind, the mental health charity, had places to run and raise money, I wanted to get involved. Mental health remains one of the largest social taboos, despite the best attempts of both the government and charities. I have had family members and friends who have suffered from mental conditions, and have seen the difficulties that come from being unable to talk about it. Raising money to attempt to research and cure any conditions would obviously be the ideal, but my objective is simply to raise awareness of these conditions.
My target to raise is £2,000, so I've started a JustGiving page - see link below. If you've had any experience with mental illness, or understand how painful it is to run a marathon, or even if you've just enjoyed my blog posts, please give what you can.
https://www.justgiving.com/ANDREW-HAYWOOD3/
Thanks,
Andy
To provide you with a bit of background - I've never been one to take on outlandish challenges, preferring instead to make my life as consistent as possible. However, over the last 12 months, I have been presented with many challenging changes that were beyond my control, a number of which I am still struggling with. With this in mind, I felt like I needed to provide myself with a challenge of my choice, that I could manage and control.
Having always been sporty, playing a combination of football and tennis as a child, I know I am fairly good when it comes to running. However, I have never entered any formal running event, with the furthest I had run until recently a 10k at my local park. This therefore provides me with a decent base, while giving me the potential to challenge myself in a more controlled environment.
I do, however, have a tendency to get carried away, which perhaps explains my decision to skip a few steps and go straight for the most gruelling, exhausting type of race in the world. Most people would probably build up with some 10k's and then a few halves - would certainly have made the prospect easier!
Other than my own tendencies, there was another reason to jump straight into the marathon. Having found out that Mind, the mental health charity, had places to run and raise money, I wanted to get involved. Mental health remains one of the largest social taboos, despite the best attempts of both the government and charities. I have had family members and friends who have suffered from mental conditions, and have seen the difficulties that come from being unable to talk about it. Raising money to attempt to research and cure any conditions would obviously be the ideal, but my objective is simply to raise awareness of these conditions.
My target to raise is £2,000, so I've started a JustGiving page - see link below. If you've had any experience with mental illness, or understand how painful it is to run a marathon, or even if you've just enjoyed my blog posts, please give what you can.
https://www.justgiving.com/ANDREW-HAYWOOD3/
Thanks,
Andy
Sunday 1 November 2015
Chelsea: How The Mighty Have Fallen
The worst title defence in the history of the Premier League. After yesterday's defeat at home to Liverpool, Chelsea have registered an embarrassing return of just 11 points after eleven first team matches, with just three wins, six defeats and 22 goals conceded. To put it in perspective, this is almost identical to the disastrous defence of Blackburn Rovers following their one and only title in 1995, and is six points worse than the ill-fated attempt by David Moyes after the Sir Alex Ferguson era at Manchester United.
What makes this current title defence most surprising is that this has not come after a shock title win or change in management. In fact, next to nothing has changed. The side that claimed the league just a few short months ago is now floundering just above the relegation zone, and it's not like they can blame injuries either. Though they have missed Thibaut Courtois for the majority of the season so far, the eleven that were so successful in the last season remain largely ever-present.
What it simply comes down to is the fact that many of the top players from last year have struggled to hit the heights that they achieved in that title winning side. If we take the lynchpins of that side, namely John Terry, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, we can clearly see in each case, the statistics are no longer in their favour when compared to many of their rivals.
Take the stoic centre half. A Chelsea legend that has taken his side through tough times seemingly single-handedly in the past, and has been a consistent performer and rock for Jose Mourinho in both his spells at the club. Last year was widely considered the Englishman's best season for some time, with the centre back's organisation enabling the team to keep 17 clean sheets, at a ratio of almost one every two games. He also scored five goals from 18 shots - the second best return of his career. In comparison, in the first 11 games of this season, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet, with Terry yet to open his personal account. He has also come under considerable criticism, being sent off at West Brom and dropped to the bench for the crunch game with Manchester City.
Similarly, Eden Hazard has struggled to make the impact he had last season. Having comprehensively won the Barclays Premier League Player of the Year Award last year, he has been almost anonymous this season. Though his chances created statistics and assists are not bad when compared to last season (29 chances created in 11 games this season/ 99 created in total last year), he does not seem to quote have the same aura around him that saw him glide past players like they weren't even there. His substitution against Liverpool yesterday came as no surprise, as up until that point I don't think I had heard his name uttered by the commentary team.
The difference between statistics for both Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa is even more stark. The power pair last year were a contributing factor to a huge percentage of Chelsea goals last year, with Fabregas hailed as a pass master for his 18 assists and Costa ranked among the top strikers in the world scoring 20 goals. How times have changed. This season, Fabregas has set up just one goal, while Costa is a tenth of the way to last year's goals total, with almost a third of the season gone.
It's certainly no secret that this has had a dramatic impact on the pressure on the shoulders of Jose Mourinho. And we have already seen how he tends to overhype. In a post last year, I looked at Jose's growing vendetta with both the English media and Premier League referees, and suggested that perhaps this was simply another of the Portuguese manager's mind-games. However, having seen the ongoing behaviour and anger of the Chelsea man, I'm not quite so sure he's as in-control as he appeared last year. He is clearly feeling the pressure, and would rather apportion blame everywhere but with himself, and referees are certainly an easy target.
One thing I still can't wrap my brain around is why. How is it that so many of not just Chelsea's top men, but the supporting cast like Matic, Ivanovic, Oscar and Azpilicueta, all of whom were outstanding in the title win, can perform so poorly all at the same time. An off game or two is to be expected, but it's getting on towards the halfway point, and I honestly cannot remember a game where Chelsea have looked like themselves.
The first explanation that I have read is from Fabio Capello. The former England and Real Madrid coach laid the accusation that Jose Mourinho's style of management burns players out, keeping them at optimal levels for a season or 18 months, but then sees performances fall off a cliff. While that would accurately explain the Portuguese's experience on this occasion, in addition to his times at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, it would not cover the initial period spent in London. Successive titles, the second more emphatic than the first, would certainly call the theory into question. Further, the individuals at the heart of that Chelsea title success remained effective for the club for years to come - look at Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba.
In addition, there have been a lot of talks in the papers recently about rifts in the dressing room. Now, while I'm willing to take such accusations with a pinch of salt, there is normally no smoke without fire, and it does appear during the games like many of the players aren't on the same wavelength. How much of that is just the players trying to force the issue, and how much is a genuine discord is difficult to say, but it is certainly a theory that cannot be ruled out.
My analysis of this adds a rather ironic twist. Jose Mourinho's attitude that the world is against him, blaming referees, the media and even his own doctors for his shortcomings may well have been a mind-game, but has now fostered an environment at Chelsea that is incredibly demoralising. Believing that people are against you can have a dramatic impact on confidence and motivation, and could certainly explain the ongoing issues. Further to this, the treatment of Eva Carneiro will undoubtedly have underlined the dictatorial regime currently in operation at the London club, and will inevitably have players and staff looking nervously over their shoulders. This tends to result in people taking fewer risks, playing it safe and therefore not achieving their potential - sound familiar?
While Jose Mourinho has been given the green light by Roman Abramovic, it is slowly but surely moving to a shade of amber. Based on the last three months, he needs to grow up, accept that bad luck and bad decisions happen, and get on with motivating his players and stop attempting to control the actions of officials. Who does he think he is, Sir Alex Ferguson?
However, Chelsea have more than enough quality to get themselves out of their current predicament, and it was fitting that it was Jurgen Klopp, who experienced the exact same thing with Dortmund last year, who visited Stamford Bridge yesterday. I'm going for a sixth place finish now for Chelsea, but they need to seriously rethink their approach and pull together to achieve even that.
What makes this current title defence most surprising is that this has not come after a shock title win or change in management. In fact, next to nothing has changed. The side that claimed the league just a few short months ago is now floundering just above the relegation zone, and it's not like they can blame injuries either. Though they have missed Thibaut Courtois for the majority of the season so far, the eleven that were so successful in the last season remain largely ever-present.
What it simply comes down to is the fact that many of the top players from last year have struggled to hit the heights that they achieved in that title winning side. If we take the lynchpins of that side, namely John Terry, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, we can clearly see in each case, the statistics are no longer in their favour when compared to many of their rivals.
Take the stoic centre half. A Chelsea legend that has taken his side through tough times seemingly single-handedly in the past, and has been a consistent performer and rock for Jose Mourinho in both his spells at the club. Last year was widely considered the Englishman's best season for some time, with the centre back's organisation enabling the team to keep 17 clean sheets, at a ratio of almost one every two games. He also scored five goals from 18 shots - the second best return of his career. In comparison, in the first 11 games of this season, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet, with Terry yet to open his personal account. He has also come under considerable criticism, being sent off at West Brom and dropped to the bench for the crunch game with Manchester City.
Similarly, Eden Hazard has struggled to make the impact he had last season. Having comprehensively won the Barclays Premier League Player of the Year Award last year, he has been almost anonymous this season. Though his chances created statistics and assists are not bad when compared to last season (29 chances created in 11 games this season/ 99 created in total last year), he does not seem to quote have the same aura around him that saw him glide past players like they weren't even there. His substitution against Liverpool yesterday came as no surprise, as up until that point I don't think I had heard his name uttered by the commentary team.
The difference between statistics for both Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa is even more stark. The power pair last year were a contributing factor to a huge percentage of Chelsea goals last year, with Fabregas hailed as a pass master for his 18 assists and Costa ranked among the top strikers in the world scoring 20 goals. How times have changed. This season, Fabregas has set up just one goal, while Costa is a tenth of the way to last year's goals total, with almost a third of the season gone.
It's certainly no secret that this has had a dramatic impact on the pressure on the shoulders of Jose Mourinho. And we have already seen how he tends to overhype. In a post last year, I looked at Jose's growing vendetta with both the English media and Premier League referees, and suggested that perhaps this was simply another of the Portuguese manager's mind-games. However, having seen the ongoing behaviour and anger of the Chelsea man, I'm not quite so sure he's as in-control as he appeared last year. He is clearly feeling the pressure, and would rather apportion blame everywhere but with himself, and referees are certainly an easy target.
One thing I still can't wrap my brain around is why. How is it that so many of not just Chelsea's top men, but the supporting cast like Matic, Ivanovic, Oscar and Azpilicueta, all of whom were outstanding in the title win, can perform so poorly all at the same time. An off game or two is to be expected, but it's getting on towards the halfway point, and I honestly cannot remember a game where Chelsea have looked like themselves.
The first explanation that I have read is from Fabio Capello. The former England and Real Madrid coach laid the accusation that Jose Mourinho's style of management burns players out, keeping them at optimal levels for a season or 18 months, but then sees performances fall off a cliff. While that would accurately explain the Portuguese's experience on this occasion, in addition to his times at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, it would not cover the initial period spent in London. Successive titles, the second more emphatic than the first, would certainly call the theory into question. Further, the individuals at the heart of that Chelsea title success remained effective for the club for years to come - look at Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba.
In addition, there have been a lot of talks in the papers recently about rifts in the dressing room. Now, while I'm willing to take such accusations with a pinch of salt, there is normally no smoke without fire, and it does appear during the games like many of the players aren't on the same wavelength. How much of that is just the players trying to force the issue, and how much is a genuine discord is difficult to say, but it is certainly a theory that cannot be ruled out.
My analysis of this adds a rather ironic twist. Jose Mourinho's attitude that the world is against him, blaming referees, the media and even his own doctors for his shortcomings may well have been a mind-game, but has now fostered an environment at Chelsea that is incredibly demoralising. Believing that people are against you can have a dramatic impact on confidence and motivation, and could certainly explain the ongoing issues. Further to this, the treatment of Eva Carneiro will undoubtedly have underlined the dictatorial regime currently in operation at the London club, and will inevitably have players and staff looking nervously over their shoulders. This tends to result in people taking fewer risks, playing it safe and therefore not achieving their potential - sound familiar?
While Jose Mourinho has been given the green light by Roman Abramovic, it is slowly but surely moving to a shade of amber. Based on the last three months, he needs to grow up, accept that bad luck and bad decisions happen, and get on with motivating his players and stop attempting to control the actions of officials. Who does he think he is, Sir Alex Ferguson?
However, Chelsea have more than enough quality to get themselves out of their current predicament, and it was fitting that it was Jurgen Klopp, who experienced the exact same thing with Dortmund last year, who visited Stamford Bridge yesterday. I'm going for a sixth place finish now for Chelsea, but they need to seriously rethink their approach and pull together to achieve even that.
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