PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Tottenham Hotspur

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City

Last season
Leicester's biggest challengers for the remainder of the season, Tottenham enjoyed a buoyant 2015/16. With the emergence of young Englishmen Dele Alli and Harry Kane, Spurs found themselves challenging for the title for the majority of the season. However, as it became increasingly obvious that Leicester's momentum was not going to end, Tottenham struggled to see out the season, eventually falling behind their local rivals on the final day.

Backroom setup
After such a strong year last time around, it comes as little surprise that Mauricio Pochettino has been retained as manager, meaning that Spurs have the consistency that many of their rivals lack (if you exclude Arsenal, of course!).

What has changed slightly is where the backroom is going to be for certain matches. While Tottenham look to renovate their current stadium, all home league and cup matches will be played at White Hart Lane, but all Champions League games are to be played across the city at Wembley, providing a few marquee games for the Spurs fans to go and watch.

Pre-season
A very short one, as Spurs chose only to compete in the International Champions Cup. While that does offer them a considerable challenge, and push them against some of the most successful sides in Europe, will that provide the match fitness necessary to maintain the momentum from their 3rd place finish last year?

Regardless, the cup itself can hardly be seen as an overwhelming success for Mauricio Pochettino's men. Beginning with a 2-1 defeat to reigning Serie A champions Juventus, the London side then went down 0-1 to Champions League finalists Atletico Madrid. While the Lily Whites did turn in a much improved performance to destroy Inter Milan 6-1, with goals from Alli, Kane, Lamela, Janssen and Harrison, is one win in three games really a strong return, and the stuff of champions?

Squad and signings
There is not all that much to say on the transfer front either. Comparatively, Spurs have spent far less than any of their main rivals, investing in just two players: Victor Wanyama from Southampton for £11m, and Vincent Janssen from AZ Alkmaar for £17m. While both will strengthen the squad, will that be enough to rival the £150m and nearly £175m that Manchester City and United have spent respectively?

They have, however, managed to retain all of their top talent from last season. While there will have been rumbling surrounding Harry Kane, and I'm sure Pochettino took a few calls about his star man, all of Spurs' key players have remained at the club. This may provide them with a bit of consistency, meaning that they can hit the ground running when the season starts and avoiding that awkward period when a new manager and players look to bed in.

Tactics
I'm not even sure I need to write anything in here, as it's not going to change. Cue fast, attacking football with extensive use of the flying wing-backs Rose and Walker, as well as guile and flair from the likes of Alli, Eriksen and Lamela. Dembele and Dier will provide the perfect foil for the back pairing of Vertonghen and Alderweireld, while Harry Kane will be looking to continue his outstanding scoring streak (if you ignore his woeful Euro 2016!).

Predictions

If last year was a close but no cigar moment, I feel this year will be essentially the same thing but a bit further down. With resurgence promised from all three of City, United and Chelsea, as well as the inevitable fact of Arsenal finishing above them, I can see Spurs narrowly missing out on the top 4, dropping into the much maligned 5th spot and taking their place back in the Europa League.

Final position: 5th

Premier League 2015: My Awards

I sometimes wonder who picks the best teams of the year in football. After FIFA's farcical inclusion of David Luiz (making the recent nutmegs by Luis Suarez all the more sweet) and Angel di Maria (remember him?) in its Team of the Year in December, the PFA have shown they are not to be outdone, with some rather odd decisions for its Team of the Year just last week.

However, before we get onto that, I'll cover the bases on the PFA Player and Young Player of the Year. Despite my protests regarding the team (and there are a few), I actually agree with both the decisions. Eden Hazard has had an exceptional year, scoring 18 goals in all competitions this season, and laying on an additional 10. More than that, he has been consistent ever since arrived in England. Last season, he scored 16 and assisted seven, while scoring 10 and assisting 14 in his first season in the Premier League. In fact, the largest surprise for me is that this is the Belgian's first individual award, but in those two years he came up against individuals having the seasons of their lives in Bale and Suarez. Nevertheless, it is a deserved success for the Chelsea man, and it's unlikely that this will be the last.

Similarly, Harry Kane is certainly one to watch out for, and his Young Player of the Year award is richly merited. I would note that we should avoid doing what we do so often with young players after an impressive first season (especially those of English descent) and not over-hype. Whilst he has the element of surprise against defenders uncertain of how to deal with him, he will naturally get more chances and goals. However, it will be how he reacts to a goal drought, which every striker inevitably goes through. The best come out stronger, and it will be interesting to see how Kane performs next season. However, it has certainly been a dream season for the Spurs man, being the first Tottenham player to score 30 goals in a season since Gary Lineker (and he went on to be ok!).

Now for the more contentious point: the PFA Team of the Year. I'll start by saying that I agree with the majority - David de Gea has been the league's best goalkeeper, Ryan Bertrand at left back, John Terry as one of the centre backs, a four in midfield of Hazard, Coutinho, Matic and Sanchez, with Kane up front. However, I have a couple of serious issues. Firstly, it's all well and good to favour the champions, but until recently, I don't remember anyone discussing Chelsea's defensive ability. At the start of the season, it was entirely about the performance of Southampton's back four, meaning that the South Coast club are neck and neck with the league leaders when it comes to defensive record. To only have one player in the team is therefore extremely harsh. In my opinion, I would have at least a two-two split, and perhaps even a three-one in favour of the Saints. Nathaniel Clyne and Jose Fonte would both be deserving of inclusion, giving the back four a slightly more red and white look.

Finally, I'm astounded that a side does not include the two joint top scorers in the Premier League. Regardless of whether this is Diego Costa's first season in English football, he hasn't scored as many as Sergio Aguero - that alone should be enough to get the Argentine a place. Also, I'm sure that was a stamping incident earlier in the season that should count against him?

So this is how my team would look:

David de Gea (Manchester United), Ryan Bertrand (Southampton), John Terry (Chelsea), Jose Fonte (Southampton), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton), Eden Hazard (Chelsea), Phillippe Coutinho (Liverpool), Nemanja Matic (Chelsea), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

There are just a couple of smaller issues to tie off following the end of my (remarkably short) rant regarding the team. Firstly, the Manager of the Year. I'm very much of the opinion that, short of some extraordinary circumstances, the Manager of the Year should normally be the manager of the champions. So it should come as little surprise that my manager of the year is Jose Mourinho. The master tactician has once again proven his ability to win pretty or ugly, and has deservedly led his side to an inevitable title win.

However, I will give a top three, taking into account the successes of managers lower down the table. In second place would be Alan Pardew, after proving himself both at Newcastle and Crystal Palace. Despite hostility from the Geordie fans, Pardew dragged the Magpies into the top 10 of the Premier League, before leaving to take Crystal Palace away from a relegation battle. In fact, such has been the failure of Newcastle since, that Crystal Palace have overtaken the Geordies, and are now almost mathematically guaranteed to finish above them. In third, Ronald Koeman. Few were expecting Southampton, given the astronomical changes made to the club in the summer, to finish in the top half, never mind challenge for Europe. However, the Saints briefly flirted with the idea of Champions League football, before a late lack of form has seemingly denied them. Nevertheless, it's a magnificent achievement for the Dutchman, and a great base to build on next year.

Finally, time for my Goal of the Season. Assuming Eden Hazard doesn't score a 45 yard overhead kick between now and the end of May, I think this is likely to be my top three:

1. Charlie Adam - Chelsea vs Stoke City
There aren't many footballers who would even think about scoring from 60 yards, and even fewer that would have the capabilities to pull it off. Adam does, and he proved it live on TV at Stamford Bridge, lobbing one of the most impressive and talented goalkeepers in the world in the meantime.

2. Phil Jagielka - Everton vs Liverpool
The context of the goal must also be taken into account. In the 91st minute of the season's first Merseyside derby is probably about the best time of all to come up with a wonder goal. I can honestly say I have never seen a better strike of a football from a defender, thumping a half volley into the roof of the net from fully 35 yards.

3. Harry Kane - Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
Like Jagielka's goal, this was also critically important. However, Harry Kane's winning goal in the North London derby was picked for its impressive technique more than its context. As most strikers will tell you, accurately angling a header back where it comes from is incredibly difficult, but Kane made it seem easy, looping his effort well away from the reach of David Ospina. Probably his favourite effort of the season too!

England's XI: Consistently Inconsistent?

And so, despite a frantic Premier League season, which sees congested races for both the Champions League and to avoid relegation, our attention turns to the national team. Just for that few times a year when fans can stop acting like idiots to antagonise one another (for a good example of this, please refer to Aston Villa fans' outrageous and ridiculous pitch invasion in their FA Cup quarter final against West Brom), and act like idiots together (ok, not a great step forward, but every little helps!).

However, for fans of England, there has been very little to cheer in recent years. The team has gone progressively backwards (arguably since 1990), culminating is the abysmal showing at the 2014 World Cup. For those of you that don't remember, allow me to share the statistical highlights. Two goals. One point. The worst English World Cup campaign since 1958. Feeling suitably morbid? Then we'll continue.

Since the Brazil aberration, England have done what England do best - given their fans false hope of a recovery. Six straight wins since the World Cup, albeit against the likes of San Marino and Estonia, has inevitably lifted the spirits of England fans - who have to be some of the most overly optimistic supporters on the face of the planet.

But what is the reason behind England's recent decline? As much as club sides and the lack of 'home-grown talent' often take the blame, deservedly so in many cases, I believe I may have uncovered an additional reason. If we look at the last three long-term managers of the national side, we see a clear trend. As with Louis van Gaal's much maligned Manchester United side this season, constant chopping and changing of players and systems can have a disastrous impact on form and performance. Here, England have previous. In his 37 games in charge, Roy Hodgson has used a remarkable 60 players - in just three years! This averages out at introducing 1.62 new players every match, which cannot be good for securing a consistent team.

However, I mentioned that this is not a Hodgson-specific issue. Fabio Capello, Steve McClaren and Sven-Goran Eriksson also all regularly rotated their squads, selecting a disproportionate amount of players for the number of matches played. If we discard Steve McClaren, who selected 45 players in his 18 woeful games in charge of the national side, there is an ongoing trend. Sven selected 67 in his 72 games, at an average of 1.07 new players per game, while Capello's average is 1.5 new players per game, having used 63 men in his 42 game reign. If we add in Hodgson's current average, we see that since 2001, England have been introducing more players per game. It cannot simply be coincidence that Sven's two World Cup resulted in quarter-final appearances, Fabio Capello's one saw them escape the group, while Hodgson's, well we can't forget that! But naturally, instead of looking closer to home, we blame the foreigners!

So, getting back to the crux of the article, who would I select for the current England squad that may end the problems with consistency? And who would start the upcoming games against Lithuania and Italy?

Though I've bemoaned the constant chopping and changing of the previous England administrations, I will make a couple of additions to the list. However, I would expect that this side will be around for at least the next five years, taking us back to the 'Golden Generation' mentality that we had under Sven.

My England Squad:

Goalkeepers: Joe Hart (Manchester City), Fraser Forster (Southampton), Jack Butland (Stoke City)

Defenders: Luke Shaw (Manchester United), Ryan Bertrand (Southampton), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Calum Chambers (Arsenal), Phil Jones (Manchester United), John Stones (Everton), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton), Kieran Gibbs (Arsenal)

Midfielders: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Jack Wilshere (Arsenal), Adam Lallana (Liverpool), Ross Barkley (Everton), Theo Walcott (Arsenal)

Forwards: Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool), Danny Welbeck (Arsenal), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)

The most telling thing about this squad? In five years, just five of the above will be over 30 years old, and those include two goalkeepers, who can continue late into their thirties (just look at Brad Friedel and Mark Schwarzer!). As a result, barring injuries, this can certainly be the bedrock squad for the next few years, and while I wouldn't expect England to trouble the winner's enclosure, this is certainly a squad capable of escaping the group stages at any competition!

As for my first XI, here's who I would start if all were fit:

Hart, Bertrand, Cahill, Chambers, Clyne, Sterling, Henderson, Lallana, Walcott, Rooney, Sturridge

For me, Hart will remain England's number one for the next five years, while the form of both Saints wing-backs give me encouragement for both of their futures. For centre-back, while Gary Cahill adds steel, it was a toss-up between Chambers and Jones, with the Arsenal man's age and potential counting in his favour.

In midfield, there are not many surprises - the Liverpool connection between Sterling, Henderson and Lallana was Spain-esque, a technique that has been proven to work in the past, while Theo Walcott just edged out his club mate Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Up front, common sense prevailed. There can be no doubt that Harry Kane is having a sparkling season, but he has not yet done enough to displace either of Rooney or Sturridge at present. However, with Rooney at 29 years old, have we found the successor? Only time will tell, but the signs are there that England may have found its next number 9 (or is that 10?).

One Man Team: How Much Of A Miss Was Aguero?

We all remember these words: 'Balotelli... Aguerooooooooooooo!' Martin Tyler's commentary of the famous final day of the 2011/2012 season has been immortalised over the last few years, but it's the goalscorer who wrote himself into City folklore. Since joining from Atletico Madrid for a club record £38m in July 2011, Aguero has been an integral cog in the City machine. The record Premier League goalscorer, eclipsing his countryman Carlos Tevez, Aguero has scored an impressive 69 goals in 110 City games.

As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.

This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?

Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.

But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.

On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?

Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.

While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.

But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:

Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)

As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?

Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.