Today's Italian Grand Prix marked the end of the European F1 season. Next, the Formula 1 roadshow rolls into Asia, with races at Singapore, Japan and Abu Dhabi to come. With Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel so far in the lead in both championships, it looks as though the end of the European season has coincided with the end of the F1 season as a competitive entity. Vettel's victory in the heart of Ferrari territory, at a circuit where they were unfavoured, signals a level of dominance that I fear will continue for the rest of the season.
But just how dominant have the Red Bulls been in Europe? It is interesting to look at the statistics of the European season, and the winners of each race. I will do a run down of the races undertaken, the winners, and the points based purely on European races. Spain was the first race of the season, which saw Fernando Alonso take his second victory on home soil. Monaco saw a win for Mercedes and Nico Rosberg, who took their second win in the following European race in Britain. Another home victory saw Vettel take his first European victory of the season at the Nurburgring. He would win another two, in Belgium and today in Italy, after a first Mercedes win for Lewis Hamilton in the Hungarian Grand Prix. Whilst the Red Bull man has won the most European races this year, he only beats Nico Rosberg by one, and the majority have come in the latter part of the season. This implies that his dominance is not as strong as initially suspected.
This is supported by the points accrued. Though Vettel does remain in the lead on European points, he is only 16 clear of Fernando Alonso. If we compare that to the 53 point lead that the German enjoys overall, 37 points of that must have come outside of Europe. Bearing in mind that there have been only 5 races thus far away from the continent, it implies that Vettel's dominance is considerably greater in Asia and America than in Europe. A little further analysis of the points also indicates that Vettel's dominance in Europe has only occurred since his home win in Germany. 75% of his European points have come in the final four races of the European season. If we compare this to Alonso, the last four account for only 55%, meaning that he has remained the more consistent. Whilst Vettel may not have been as dominant in Europe as elsewhere, Red Bull as a team certainly have. Between them, Vettel and Webber have accrued 206 points on European soil, a full 53 points clear of their nearest rivals, which would be Mercedes, with Ferrari a further four points back. Overall, Red Bull's lead currently stands at 102 points, which implies that Red Bull's dominance as a team is almost identical in Europe to away from it. Obviously, these statistics may alter, with a further 7 races to take place away from Europe this season.
In terms of the Italian Grand Prix, the practice sessions were all dominated by the world-champion elect. The qualifying session on the Saturday was expected to have a similar result. After the heroics of the Marussias and Guido van der Garde in Belgium's Q1, they sadly could not replicate the feat, perishing at the first time of asking. Q2 proved far more shocking, as the pole sitter of the four previous races Lewis Hamilton, 'drove like an idiot', in his own words, and could only manage 12th. Both of the Lotuses also had to watch Q3 from the pits, with Nico Hulkenberg and the two Toro Rossos being the shock inclusions to Q3. Having sauntered through to third session, Vettel cruised to pole, with team mate Mark Webber ensuring that Red Bull locked out the front row for the first time since the second race of the season. The big surprise happened immediately behind them, as Sauber's Nico Hulkenberg angered the Italian population, beating the Ferrari pair to 3rd on the grid. In double disappointment, Alonso had to settle for 5th, being beaten by his teammate for the first time in several races. This would do his race victory chances no favours, and would ultimately see his title bid go up in smoke.
The start at Monza is always chaotic, with the opening chicane normally causing several collisions throughout the field. This danger will not have been lessened by the start of Vettel. The German locked both front brakes on the turn into turn 1, sending a considerable amount of smoke up, clouding the vision of those behind. This inevitably had an impact on the consertina effect that occurred behind, with Kimi Raikkonen damaging his front wing in contact with Sergio Perez, sending the McLaren driver onto the escape road. Even more concerning for Vettel, the lock-up left worries of flat-spots on his tyres, with the potential to cause damage to the car, and ruin his one stop race. The Ferraris both had excellent starts, passing both Hulkenberg and Webber by the end of lap 2, with Alonso making an exceptional pass around the Red Bull man at the Curva Grande. Inter-team cooperation then started taking place, with Massa offering no resistance to a move from Alonso a few laps later, meaning that the Spaniard could get after Vettel. The German, though, was showing no signs of a flat spot, edging out a gap of 7 seconds by lap 10.
Further back, after a good start, Lewis Hamilton was still struggling in the midfield. Having made up two places from the start, the Brit had failed to surge through the field, instead being stuck in a battle with Jenson Button for 10th. However, his afternoon was ruined by a couple of early problems. First, the engineers discovered an issue with the radio communications between the driver and the team, meaning that no message could be delivered throughout the race. Even more dramatic was the announcement that the Mercedes had a slow puncture, meaning that the Brit needed to pit, wrecking his plans for a one-stop race. This also explained the slow progress that Hamilton had been making. That message could not be delivered to the driver though, meaning that Hamilton stayed out for a further 2 laps before finally recieving the message and making the stop, but this will have cost him valuable time. He rejoined behind Kimi Raikkonen, who had been fighting back from the first lap incident. The Finn had been setting a succession of fastest laps, and looked like flying through the field. Hamilton, on fresher tyres, got right among the fastest laps, swapping the honour with the Lotus. As a result of this scintillating pace, the pair of them managed to pass those they were fighting before they made their stops (Button, Perez, Grosjean, Ricciardo). But would they have to stop again?
Vettel's suspected problems seemed to be coming back to haunt him, as when he past the 20th lap, he began to lose half to three-quarters of a second a lap. Clearly concerned, the Red Bull mechanics decided to pull him in on lap 23, when the lead was just 5 seconds. After a quick inspection (2.7 seconds), they concluded that all was fine, and sent him back out. Alonso, attempting to press home his advantage, stayed out. Unfortunately for the Ferrari driver, this plan completely backfired. The Red Bull team's decision to keep Vettel out there was vindicated, as the German extended his lead to 10 seconds by the time Alonso made his pit stop. Instead of retaining the lead, the Spaniard nearly fell back behind Webber. Further back, Hamilton and Raikkonen continued their onslaught on the field, passing the other Mercedes in Nico Rosberg. However, this was halted by the unsurprising decision by Lotus to pit Raikkonen a second time, dropping him way down the field. Hamilton pressed on, passing Nico Hulkenberg for 5th, but ultimately his progress came to the same end, requiring another stop. However, just like the stop before, continuing radio problems meant that he stayed out a further two laps than they intended. Despite the best efforts of the Mercedes pit crew, he rejoined behind Raikkonen once again, in 14th, meaning that he would need to pass him on track. But would they be able to trouble the points?
Up front, whilst Vettel scampered away at the front, Alonso was challenged heavily by the other Red Bull of Mark Webber. The Red Bull team would have liked nothing more than a 1-2 on Ferrari territory, further showing their dominance. However, once again misfortune struck the Aussie, who was told that they had a gear issue between the 2nd and 3rd gears. This meant that he couldn't get the necessary acceleration to reel in the Ferrari, meaning that he began to fall back a little. Even worse news was to follow for Christian Horner and the boys on the pit wall at Red Bull. Vettel seemed to be developing the same problems as his team mate. Fortunately, he had built up a healthy lead of over 12 seconds, meaning that he could take it a bit easier without costing himself the race. However, the news that the Red Bulls were having problems had filtered back to the Ferrari pit wall, and the drivers were soon pushing hard to catch the pair in front.
In the battle for the points, Hamilton took the lead in the push for the top 10, passing the Lotus brilliantly round the Curva Grande, before getting past Perez's McLaren to make it into the points. But he wasn't finished there. He quickly managed to catch and dispatch the other McLaren of Button, before chasing down the pair in front of him. This led to a final lap dash for 7th place, with both Grosjean and Ricciardo in the Mercedes's sights. Up front, despite struggling through the final few laps, Vettel managed to nurse his car home for the maximum 25 points, winning by just 5.7 seconds. His 53 point lead seems insumountable, but this race could have been a different story had the problem emerged a few laps sooner. Perhaps he will have a bigger fight from his new Australian team mate, but for now he remains the top dog in Formula 1.
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