After a month's sabbatical (whilst I attempted to find my full-time career, which I am glad to say I have), I am back and writing! And what an event to restart my blogs with. Despite it feeling like a matter of nano-seconds since the extra-time volley from Andres Iniesta secured Spain's first World Cup success, Brazil 2014 is just around the corner. With the South American state being the undisputed mecca of world football (international at least), each of the 32 qualifiers will have been hoping for a kind draw to prolong their experience of the footballing carnival atmosphere. And on Friday (alongside rather muted claims of racism), the sides discovered their fates.
For England, after a hard-fought campaign, whose place in the finals were once again decided on just the final day against Poland, hopes of a kind draw were particularly strong. Going through a period widely described as a 'transition period' (I hate that phrase), after struggling in South Africa and in a seemingly simple qualifying group for Brazil, little is expected for the Three Lions this time around. At least in the minds of the sane anyway. In a BBC poll taken directly before the draw was made, a delusional 5.2% of people tipped England to win the World Cup. That made them 8th favourites! If we look at this positively, at least 95% of the British people can be considered sane. But to place England in the top quarter of teams is ridiculous. As we saw in the pair of friendlies last month, both Germany and Chile are better than us. I think we can also safely assume that we cannot be expected to compete with sides like Spain, Brazil, Argentina, and with rising sides like Uruguay, Columbia and Belgium all seeming to have far too much momentum for Roy Hodgson's men, 8th seems unlikely. Outside that list, European giants in Portugal, Italy, France and Holland. A kind draw was imperative.
And so onto the draw, and my predictions for each of the groups:
Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon
One of my favourite groups. Competitive throughout, and though the hosts may have the advantage, the second spot is well and truly up for grabs. None of the three sides had particularly good qualifying campaigns, with all struggling in the playoffs. I would expect Brazil to progress as group winners, and purely on experience I will pick Mexico for spot number two.
Group B: Spain, Holland, Chile, Australia
I feel so sorry for the Aussies. Though they may be obliterating our cricket side down under, but they have been dealt a ridiculous hand for the World Cup. The reigning champions and the runners up, with the Alexis Sanchez-inspired Chile, makes up an incredibly tough task. Though for the neutrals this group will be interesting, as I could conceivably see Holland exit at this stage, the two Europeans are favourites to progress.
Group C: Columbia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
One of the more cut-and-dried groups. Though Japan may seem capable of springing a surprise, Ivory Coast and Columbia must be favourites to progress. Unfortunately for Greece, despite their recent improvement, I can see them getting the dreaded nul point in Brazil.
Group D: Uruguay, England, Costa Rica, Italy
Though 5.2% (and I suspect more) of England fans will not want to admit it, this too appears to be a fairly obvious choice. Uruguay, with one of the greatest strike forces in world football (for those of you that do not follow football, that is Paris Saint Germain's Edinson Cavani and Liverpool's Luis Suarez. But if you don't follow football, that probably means nothing to you either!) And Italy, the side that eliminated England from Euro 2012, and with a rejuvenated Mario Balotelli since his move to Milan. Though Costa Rica will be the proverbial whipping boys of the group, I expect England to suffer their first group stage exit since 1982.
Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras
The group that England wanted. And typical it should fall to France. So enigmatic in international competitions in recent years, we have seen France reach the final of two of the last five World Cups, but they have also perished in the group stage of the same amount. The other three have never really had much success in recent years, with Switzerland's rise into the top 8 of world football being greeted with derision by many. I think that France will return to their best to take top spot, and after a hard scrap, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ecuador in second.
Group F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzagovina, Iran, Nigeria
At least we will be able to see the skills of Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero on show, because Argentina should cruise through this group, scoring plenty of goals in the process. The competition's only debutants, Bosnia, should also feel relatively confident about their chances to progress, as neither Iran nor Nigeria fill international football sides with dread. I think those two will progess, and the Bosnian fairytale can continue.
Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA
Another intriguing prospect. The two European giants will be the favourites to progress, but we have seen what happens to Portugal when Ronaldo gets isolated. The Iberians are too often reliant on the Real Madrid striker, and I would imagine that Ghana, though not back by a continent like 4 years ago, will be there to capitalise should the Portuguese stutter.
Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
Belgium's meteoric rise has been commented on by many, as they have been the side to slip under the radar for the majority of the qualifying campaign. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, Romelu Lukaku and Simon Mignolet, they have some of the Premier League's best players, and I would expect them to progress easily here. Russia would be my second choice, as though we hear little of them in the years between, they seem to turn up for international competitions.
As I mentioned, England have not failed to progress from a World Cup group since 1982. However, I would argue that they have not had a weaker squad since that point than the one we find ourselves with at present. Though the future looks promising, with youngsters like Ross Barkley, Jack Wilshere and Ravel Morrison making headlines in the Premier League this season, we may have to go through a spell of under-performing before we return to the knockout phases once more.
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