Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.
Beginning with the title race, I (wrongly as it turned out) assumed that the winner would almost inevitably come from one of the three teams that have shared the title for the last 10 years: Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea. Though we now know we need to throw Liverpool into the mix, it is worth looking back over the fixtures, and seeing just how right (or often, wrong) I was.
Strangely, based on the fixtures I picked Manchester United to retain their title. I identified the three key times of the season, looking at the five fixtures at the beginning, middle and run-in. In reality, United have massively underperformed in both of the beginning and middle fixtures. Though they started well, with an emphatic 4-1 victory away at Swansea City, their form tailed off dramatically. A boring 0-0 draw with then-title rivals Chelsea was followed by two devastating defeats, away at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Manchester derby was particularly damaging, both for United's title chances, and David Moyes's credibility, as the Red Devils were comprehensively outplayed (the first of many times that would occur this season). Though I did not select United to start the season particularly well, I did not expect them to collapse quite so spectacularly.
Manchester City's start was considerably less tricky, and as a result saw them post a more healthy total after 5 games. Beginning the season with a 4-0 demolition of Newcastle, City were shocked by newly-promoted Cardiff City in a topsy-turvy game. Despite taking the lead, Cardiff came from behind to record one of the surprise results of the season, winning 3-2. This defeat evidently affected the Blues, as they laboured to a 2-0 victory in their next home game against Hull. A 0-0 draw at Stoke, historically a tough place to go, left City lagging behind slightly. However, the resounding victory over United sent out a real message into their title rivals and reinstated City's place towards the top of the table.
The final contenders I covered, Chelsea, began the season with a comfortable home win over Hull City, with fans rejoicing in the return of the 'Special One'. Though the fixtures changed slightly to accommodate the UEFA Super Cup, meaning that Chelsea picked up another home win over Aston Villa, that bore draw with Manchester United checked the rhythm of the Blues. This was further disrupted by the 1-0 defeat suffered at Goodison Park against a resurgent and difficult Everton. However, the 2-0 win over Fulham was the perfect tonic for their difficult period and meant that Chelsea could regain the momentum lost through their 100% home record.
I predicted that of those opening 5, it would be Manchester City that performed best, with Chelsea having to travel to Everton and Manchester United, and United having a horrible run of fixtures (causing David Moyes to have a meltdown about them - would it have happened with Fergie in charge?). After the opening 5, I was still fairly confident that surprises like Cardiff's win against City was an example of teams bedding in and learning the ropes under a new manager, and I was confident that form would pick up as the season went on. Whilst I was not particularly surprised with the defeats United had away at City and Liverpool, the manner of them was shocking, and it looked like they would be the side most in need of adjustment.
End of First 5: Manchester United - 7pts (8th), Manchester City - 10pts (3rd), Chelsea - 10pts (4th)
To be fair to United and Moyes, whilst they looked defensively suspect, particularly at home, their away for has been impressive throughout the season, and eventually they began to improve in the mid-season period. Traditionally, the games over Christmas are where United really begin to gain momentum, so their rather fortunate five fixtures helped them considerably. Looking between the 14th December and New Year's Day, United began with a winnable tie at Aston Villa. With their excellent away form, win they did, and comfortably - 3-0. Three further victories, a 3-1 win at home to West Ham, a 3-2 come from behind win at Hull and an edgy 1-0 win over Norwich at Carrow Road saw United begin to string together results and gain momentum. However, once again their abysmal home form came back to bite them. Having already lost to Everton, Newcastle and West Brom at Old Trafford by this point, United's fortess of the past decades had been eradicated. This was proven once again with another dismal display at home to Tottenham, where goals from the rejuvenated Emmanuel Adebayor and the excellent Christian Eriksen gave Spurs a deserved 2-1 win and denting United's title prospects further.
Man City's mid-season fixture list was dauting, with visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as a tough tie at Swansea. I said in my earlier post that this may be the making or the breaking of City's season, and if so, it certainly made it. A 6-3 demolition of Arsenal in an incredible game at the Etihad saw City continue their unbelievable goalscoring form. Though they were winning, they were having to do it the hard way. A 4-2 away win at Fulham saw the Blues chuck a 2-0 lead away, before recovering to claim the three points. With similarly free-scoring Liverpool the next to travel to City, they could ill-afford more slip-ups. In a testing and absorbing contest, a Simon Mignolet error handed Alvaro Negredo the decisive goal in a 2-1 victory for the Blues. Two further wins at home to Crystal Palace and away at Swansea saw City claim maximum points from the mid-season and keep themselves very much in the hunt for the silverware.
Chelsea had a similarly difficult run of games, but they started with a comfortable (but not too easy) 2-1 win at home to a resurgent Crystal Palace. Mourinho's tactics ensured that they left their next game at the Emirates with their goal untroubled, but too often left them toothless upfront in a boring 0-0 draw. The lack of goals has been a theme throughout this season for Chelsea, and this was proven with the 1-0 win at Swansea, where Samuel Eto'o missed several golden opportunities to make the scoreline more emphatic. However, winning is winning, and a huge victory in the crunch game at home to Liverpool ensured that Chelsea remained well in the title race approaching the New Year. A dominant 3-0 win at the difficult St Mary's Stadium in Southampton saw Chelsea move within two points of the top spot, having taken 13 from the 15 points available in the period.
Here I was surprised. I predicted that it would be Manchester United that performed best of the three, as their fixtures seemed markedly easier than either those of Chelsea or City. However, it is probably unfair to castigate too much, as all three sides had excellent mid-season periods, with 12 out of 15 being the worst return. City's demolition of Arsenal sent out a warning shot to the rest of the Premier League that they were ready to fight their corner to the end, whilst Chelsea were quietly creeping up behind. By this point, United had already lost too much ground to put them in the title shake-up, and their efforts were now focused on claiming that all important 4th place. If they continued the way they managed in the mid-season, this was certainly possible.
End of Middle 5: Manchester United - 34pts (7th), Manchester City - 44pts (2nd), Chelsea - 43pts (3rd)
So what happened as the season reached its climax? Well, United continued to be consistently inconsistent, with their away form remaining the best in the division. However, their home form continues to be their undoing, and they seem incapable of competing in the big games. Heavy 3-0 defeats in successive games against Liverpool and Manchester City followed the 3-1 loss to Chelsea, ultimately ending United's push for a Champions League place. How badly this will affect the future of the club remains to be seen, but irrespective of what Moyes says, I truly believe that it will have a negative impact on the calibre of player United can attract. As a result, I would not be surprised to see a lot of new faces at United over the summer, but few will be huge headline names.
Manchester City, rocked by injuries to key personnel at times, have gone off the boil at a critical moment. Despite looking unstoppable at times in the mid-season, cruising past Spurs, Norwich and Arsenal with huge scores, the injury to Sergio Aguero has halted their goalscoring prowess. They, like United have failed in the big games, with a pair of defeats against Chelsea being followed by an incredibly damaging 3-2 defeat away at Liverpool (marked as a title decider). Wednesday's draw with Sunderland takes the title well and truly out of their hands, and they now need someone to do them a favour if they are to reclaim the trophy they won two years ago.
Chelsea have continued in the vein they have seen all season - winning games, but not scoring goals. As such, they are within touching distance of leaders Liverpool, but without a particularly good goal difference or any games with spectacular scorelines. Though they would now be favourite of the three I picked to win the title from here, it is interesting consider the three in the race and how I believe it will pan out as we head into the home straight.
5 To Go: Liverpool (1st), Chelsea (2nd), Manchester City (3rd)
The real surprise of the season was the rise of Liverpool. Their potent attacking force has made the Anfield side difficult to stop this campaign, as proven by their monumental home victories against all of their title rivals thus far. However, two damaging results ensured that the title would be making its way back to Manchester for the fourth successive year. Chelsea's brilliant, if a little dull, victory at Anfield was followed by an incredible collapse at Crystal Palace, handing momentum, and ultimately the trophy, back to City.
City, after their defeat at Liverpool, and the 2-2 draw with Sunderland, seemed rank outsiders for the title. However, 6 successive wins, including tough away ties at The Eagles and Goodison Park, a traditional bogey ground, meant that a final day coast at home to West Ham handed them the crown.
Jose Mourinho's Chelsea, having beaten the Reds, shot themselves in the foot, dropping points at home to Sunderland and Norwich, wrecking what promised to be a golden return for the Special One.
At the end of one of the closest championship battles for years, we could have seen the trophy back in the North West - but not in the place you would expect. However, one of the most exciting races in recent memory promises to be even more so next year, with free-spending Chelsea and Manchester City likely to be joined by Manchester United and Arsenal, if they can avoid injuries. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Liverpool can marry European football, particularly Champions League, with a decent domestic campaign. We have seen sides struggle to compete for multiple honours, and it will be a real test of Brendan Rodgers' small squad next year.
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