With the fixtures announced on Wednesday, that feeling of anticipation and excitement over the new season grows. The transfer window hasn't even opened yet, and people are already looking at the big derbies (with Aston Villa and West Brom particularly peeved that they didn't make the list) and making their predictions over the winners of the next Premier League title. Over the last couple of years, I've done blog posts looking at the fixtures, and using them to give an initial indication of who should be considered favourites. It's not particularly scientific, but it is interesting.
As with the last couple of years, I'll start with the title race. Now here's where it gets a bit tricky. Unlike the last few years, where it has been rather obvious who should be considered contenders, and who should fit into the category of European hopefuls, this year is different. Any one of last year's top four could theoretically win the title, especially with the money that is being discussed in transfer fees. As a result, I'll look at the fixtures of each of Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the three key periods of the season, start, Christmas and end, to see who should be considered favourites at this stage.
It's also worth remembering that these fixtures are subject to change, particularly when the Champions League and Europa League fixtures are announced. However, the current opening five look like this for each of the title-challenging sides. Champions Chelsea begin at home to Swansea, before the season's first heavyweight clash at the Etihad against City. They then travel to West Brom, before hosting Crystal Palace and negotiating a difficult away trip to Everton. Last year's runners-up Manchester City have an even harder task. Though most of the sides are the same as Chelsea, they start with a tricky away trip to Tony Pulis's West Brom, before that mammoth game at home to Chelsea. They then have difficult away games at Everton and Crystal Palace, with their only seemingly easier game at home to Watford.
If City have the hardest start, Arsenal have the easiest. Starting with a home game against West Ham, they then have a slightly difficult three game series, starting with a trip across London to Crystal Palace. They then host Champions League chasing Liverpool, before another away day at an unpredictable Newcastle. They they finish the series with a home tie against traditionally travel-sick Stoke. Finally, United rival City for the title of trickiest opening. Hosting Spurs on the opening day, they then travel to Aston Villa before returning to Old Trafford to face Newcastle. Following a trip to Wales to visit Swansea, they then have the huge North West derby at home to Liverpool, which could give an indication of the gap between the Champions League places and the title. So in my opinion, the opening fixtures go: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in terms of difficulty.
Moving on to the critical Christmas period, we see that all four have comparatively easy fixtures against the difficult starts. Arsenal, however, is perhaps the exception. Starting with the tricky trip to Aston Villa, they then host Manchester City before another hard away day at Southampton on Boxing Day. Two home fixtures against newly promoted Bournemouth and Newcastle round off the festive period, but it's still enough to be the hardest set. In comparison, Manchester United have the easiest run, started by two games against newly promoted sides. Though the trip to face Bournemouth may be a trip into the unknown, you would still expect them to win, before an easy home game against Norwich. Two difficult fixtures follow - away to Stoke before a home game against Chelsea - before they start 2016 with a home tie against Swansea.
Across the city (well, actually in a different city altogether) City have a strange mixture of difficult and easier fixtures. Kicking off at home to Swansea, they then take that trip to the Emirates, before another home tie against Sunderland. They finish the Christmas period with trips to Leicester and newly promoted Watford, two games that they will need to take six points from. Finally, Chelsea are towards the easier end of the fixture list, with a couple of difficult games punctuating easier ones. They start with a trip to Leicester, before hosting Sunderland and Watford - all games that are realistically winnable. They then end the period with games away at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, both of which are banana skin ties, particularly when you consider the congested list. So, the middle section is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United.
And so, we come to the final five. With the title race set to come down to the wire, the last few fixtures will come under an enormous amount of pressure. With this in mind, Manchester City could really have done without their run-in. Starting with the huge fixture at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, they then host Stoke before another difficult away day at Southampton. Their penultimate game does not get any easier, with Arsenal visiting the Etihad, before a final day banana skin tie at Swansea. In contrast, Manchester United (surprise, surprise) have a comparative doddle in their final five, hosting Villa and Leicester and travelling to West Hame and Norwich, before a final day visit of Bournemouth - they could barely have wished for an easier end.
The two London sides have vastly similar endings in terms of difficulty, with the champions perhaps on the receiving end of the raw deal. Chelsea host City, before a trip to Bournemouth. They then have a tough game against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, before ending the season with a trip to the North East to play Sunderland, and a home game against Leicester on the final day. Arsenal start at home to Crystal Palace, before travelling to Sunderland and hosting Norwich. They then have that game at City, which has huge implications for the title race before a final day home tie against Aston Villa. In my opinion, the final five go like this: Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United.
If we add up the three periods based on difficulty, with four representing most difficult and one least, we see a clear pattern. Manchester City should be considered the least favourite based solely on the fixtures, amassing a worrying 10 points. They are followed by current champions Chelsea, who have a total of eight, while Arsenal total seven. For those of you familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson's almost miraculous knack of securing an easy fixture list for Manchester United, it should come as no surprise to see them total just five points, with the easiest fixture list in both the middle and end of the season. With this in mind, it is Manchester United that should be considered the favourites based solely on the fixtures. We'll have to see how this plays out in reality.
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