Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.

Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.

Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.

Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.

Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).

For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.

I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.

After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)

As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.

For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.

Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.

Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.

I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.

After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)

With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.

This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.

End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)

So what of my prediction?

Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?

Tactics Talk: Everton vs Arsenal

Lineups:

Everton (4-4-2): Howard, Baines, Stones, Distin, Coleman, Barry, Mirallas, Osman, McCarthy, Naismith, Lukaku

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Szchesny, Monreal, Vermaelen, Mertesacker, Sagna, Arteta, Flamini, Cazorla, Podolski, Rosicky, Giroud

This season has seen the resurgence of Merseyside, and both sides see themselves fighting for very different prizes, but ultimately both are in the same position. While Liverpool are the underdogs in the title race, with Brendan Rodgers claiming the pressure is off his side, Everton and Roberto Martinez are in the same situation, just swap the title for the Champions League. The recent run of 6 successive wins for the Toffees indicates that they are not unrealistically aiming at Arsenal's 4th spot, being only 4 points behind the Gunners at kick off with a game in hand.

This game was enormous for Arsenal. A win would keep their faint hopes of the title alive, while a draw would end those hopes. A defeat, however, would hand Everton an enormous boost and put Arsenal in danger of dropping out of the top 4 for the first time under Arsene Wenger's leadership. Despite a mound of injuries for Arsenal, both sides fielded as strong a side as they could.

The opening moments of the game saw the usual sparring, with neither side willing to take the initial risk. Leon Osman flashed a speculative volley wide, whilst Podolski wasted a reasonable chance at the other end. In the beginning exchanges, Arsenal were maintaining possession well, but failed to break through a stubborn Evertonian defence, with Stones and Distin holding the line well. Everton were forced into an early change, with Leon Osman being replaced by Ross Barkley after being caught in the face by a boot in a challenge. This was generally considered an attacking change, forcing Everton forward and just beginning to frustrate Arsenal.

After that tetchy start, Everton hit the front. A quick break away after a dangerous Arsenal attack left Leighton Baines marauding on the left side. A brilliant ball into Romelu Lukaku left the Belgian with a chance to get a shot away, forcing a save from Szchesny. However, Everton got fortunate with the rebound, falling to the clinical Steven Naismith, who tucked it into the far corner. With Baines and Coleman frequently terrorising the two Arsenal full backs, it came as little surprise that the goal came from this. However, despite this tactic clearly working, Arsenal failed to replicate this, opting instead to try and break down the middle, with Santi Cazorla and Tomas Rosicky the primary playmakers. However, this tactic never really came close to working, and the Arsenal defence continued to fail to understand the threat that the Everton wing-backs continued to pose, with Arsenal opting to remain fairly narrow to combat the threat of Barkley.

First half hour: Tactically, Arsenal looked inept, and Everton looked the more threatening, and looked likely to add to their deserved lead.

And so this proved. After a period of Arsenal pressure that once again yielded nothing, Everton struck on the break. With Lukaku drifting out wide, Nacho Monreal couldn't deal with the power of the Belgian, failing to show him down the line and allowing him to drift inside to fire beyond the goalkeeper. A critical goal and a hammer blow ten minutes before the break, Everton now held a strong position, which Arsenal would need to respond. But once again, they had no answer. Everton seemed more than happy, and more than comfortable to sit back and protect their lead to the break - and they did it comfortably.

Arsene Wenger would have needed to say something special to his team at half time or make some substantial changes. As the teams came out after the interval, it would have to have been the former, as each of the 11 that started the game continued. Initially, Arsenal looked marginally more threatening, with Wenger clearly telling them to target the wings, a tactic that had been so successful for Everton during the first period. A couple of individual errors by Everton gave them cause for concern, but once again they dealt fairly well with the Arsenal threat. As such, the game began to settle down as the hour mark approached. However, almost bang on the hour, the game was over. An error in the Arsenal midfield enabled Everton to threaten down the wing again, and the cross was eventually turned in by Mikel Arteta, of all people the ex-Everton man, under pressure by Kevin Mirallas.

Second half hour: Two goals and the game over with half an hour to go, Everton have outplayed Arsenal in every department.

Finally the sub arrived, but with far too much to do in far too little time. Podolski and Flamini were withdrawn in favour of Oxlade-Chamberlain and Ramsey. For Arsenal fans, it is great news to see Aaron Ramsey back on a football pitch, as he was one of the most illuminating players of the first half of the season, and it is no coincidence that his injury came at the same time as Arsenal's downturn in form, coupled with the absence of Theo Walcott and Mesut Ozil. In a final substitution, Arsene Wenger brought off the ineffective Olivier Giroud, who just hasn't lived up to expectations this season, for another disappointing striker, Yaya Sanogo.

By this point in the game, Everton knew they had the win under control, and were playing neat 'ole' football, giving their fans plenty to cheer. After excellent performances, Naismith and Lukaku were rested, with Aiden McGeady and Gerard Deulofeu coming on for the final 10 minutes. Other than Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain demonstrating how he could have affected the game, smashing a 25 yard shot off the face of the bar, there was little of interest. An injury time scuffle between Ross Barkley and Mikel Arteta, in which the Arsenal man received a yellow card, compounded the misery of the Gunners, who will now be looking anxiously over their shoulders.

Final half hour: No-one did anything of note in the final half hour, but by then, the game was well and truly beyond Arsenal, with Everton the clear and deserved winners.

This result shuts one door for Arsenal, and opens another extremely worrying one. This is an emphatic indication of the confidence of the two teams at present, which doe not bode well for the Gunners, who on paper have the easier run in. However, if Everton perform to the same level against the two Manchester clubs at Goodison, I do not see any reason why they can't pick up valuable points. The race for 4th is very much on, and it would come as no surprise to me if Everton break the 15 year hold on the Champions League enjoyed by Wenger and Arsenal.