With the announcement of the Premier League fixtures, the rumour mills spins into overdrive about who is favourite for the big prizes - the title, the Champions League, and avoiding relegation. In my post yesterday, I outlined my opinion on who I believe is currently favourites for the Premier League title, based solely on the fixtures in the opening five games, the busy Christmas period, and the final five. This time, it's the turn of those sides competing for a place in the Champions League, namely Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton.
So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.
Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.
Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.
So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.
It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label Tottenham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tottenham. Show all posts
Monday, 29 June 2015
Sunday, 18 May 2014
Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)
Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.
Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.
Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.
Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.
Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).
For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.
I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.
After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)
As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.
For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.
Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.
Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.
I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.
After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)
With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.
This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.
End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)
So what of my prediction?
Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?
Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.
Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.
Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.
Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).
For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.
I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.
After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)
As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.
For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.
Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.
Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.
I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.
After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)
With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.
This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.
End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)
So what of my prediction?
Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?
Saturday, 26 April 2014
Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?
As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.
Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.
From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.
So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:
Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)
As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.
So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.
Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.
The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.
It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.
As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.
Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.
| Team | Manager Out (Games) | PPG | Manager In (Games) | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City | Malky Mackay (18) | 0.94 | Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15) | 0.8 |
| Crystal Palace | Ian Holloway (8) | 0.38 | Tony Pulis (24) | 1.63 |
| Fulham | Martin Jol (13) | 0.77 | Rene Meulensteen (13) | 0.77 |
| Fulham | Rene Meulensteen (13) | 0.77 | Felix Magath (9) | 1.11 |
| Norwich City | Chris Hughton (32) | 0.97 | Neil Adams (3) | 0 |
| Swansea City | Michael Laudrup (24) | 1 | Garry Monk (11) | 1.09 |
| Sunderland | Paolo di Canio (5) | 0.2 | Gus Poyet (27) | 1.04 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Andre Villas Boas (16) | 1.69 | Tim Sherwood (19) | 1.89 |
| West Bromwich Albion | Steve Clarke (16) | 0.94 | Pepe Mel (13) | 0.92 |
From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.
So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:
Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)
As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.
So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.
Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.
The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.
It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.
As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.
Sunday, 13 October 2013
England Series: Harry Redknapp: The Jilted Lover
In the build-up to Tuesday's do-or-die fixture at home to Poland, I will be running an England mini-series, looking at the talking points that have haunted the England side's preparations, and looking at their chances going forward. A few weeks ago, I gave my opinion on Greg Dyke's comments that England should be looking to reach the semi-finals of the Euro 2020 competition, and win the World Cup in 2022 in Qatar. This assumes that the groundwork is already in place for England to become a viable winner of trophies, as Spain's 'Golden Age' really began a decade or so previously, with the change of several rules regarding training of youngsters. Using the State of the Game report, as well as evidence from the current England squad and the lower leagues, I will examine just how much creedence can be given to Dyke's claims. I dismissed them a few weeks ago-was I wrong to?
This post will be the last in my 'headline-makers' aspect to this England series, and has perhaps been the most damaging to English footballing stability. It concerns Roy Hodgson's appointment as England manager in the spring of 2012 was a surprise, as the front runner for the position from the start had been then Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp. The loveable Cockney Arry', best known for his transfer deadline day antics, most famously hanging out of his car window, and his odd resemblance to a bulldog, had proven himself to be one of the Premier League's top managers in the previous few seasons. Having taken Spurs from the relegation zone after 7 games of the 2008/2009 season, he transformed the North London club's fortunes, taking them to a league cup final in the same season, where they lost narrowly on penalties. The following year, he led Spurs to 4th place, and a Champions League spot for the first time in the club's history. A remarkable run in the competition took them to the quarter finals, where they had accept defeat against Real Madrid. Nevertheless, from the relegation zone to the quarter-finals of the Champions League in two years is a quite incredible run, and put the Spurs manager on the lips of many for the recently available post of England manager.
However, things took an unexpected turn for the Londoner. With all the distractions over his potential move, his Spurs side began to slide away from the title race in 2011/2012, even finishing behind local rivals Arsenal. This meant that they missed out on the automatic Champions League places, which would prove incredibly costly. With Chelsea winning the tournament, 4th was not enough to get them into the Champions League the following year. To make matters worse for media darling Arry', despite him being installed as overwhelming favourite to succeed Fabio Capello as England boss, the FA opted to go with Roy Hodgson, a decision met with derision by many in the footballing world. They say that bad things come in threes, and this was to be the case for Harry, as no sooner had the season concluded, with Spurs equalling their best ever finish to a Premier League season, he and Spurs parted ways, due to 'unresolved contract issues'. Since the dismissal, Redknapp's managerial career seems to have been in terminal decline. He quickly found employment in the form of struggling QPR last season, only to lead the club down, rock bottom of the Premier League. Since the speculation over the England job, he had not been the same successful Harry that football had known and come to love, and, underneath, there was developing a rather bitter edge to the Cockney manager that few had fully experienced.
This bitterness was suddenly thrust into the public eye with the release of his autobiography in October 2013. Here, he registers his disgust at the FA for the decision-making in the run-up to the announcement of Roy Hodgson as England manager. Whilst the former Spurs manager states that he never held anything against the former Fulham manager, the tone in which he wrote his words suggests exactly the opposite. Just read some of the words he (and by that I mean Martin Samuel) wrote: 'I wouldn't trust the FA to show me a good manager if their lives depended on it', 'Everyone says I was the people's choice, the only choice' and 'I got quite a few text messages at the time from players saying they would love me to manage England: Steven Gerrard, Wayne Rooney, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry. But the FA went for Roy Hodgson-a man who is more their cup of tea.' All of these quotes have an undertone of bitterness to them, and will do little to further his career.
These comments are also exactly what Roy Hodgson and England did not need in the build up to their two most critical World Cup Qualifiers for Brazil 2014. With England not guaranteed qualification, two performances (at home to firstly Montenegro, and then Poland) would be required to ensure their place in South America. Considering that Harry specifically says in his book that he wants England to do well, you have to question the release date of an autobiography that is so critical of the England manager and the FA. Surely it wouldn't have made any difference to Redknapp if he had waited to release his book for another week? Or perhaps that was his intention-especially if England did fail to qualify over the following two games. That way, he could point to the England performances as evidence of the FA's incompetence in appointing Hodgson over him, as predicted in his book. Had he released it a week later, he could be accused of acting in hindsight, when his claims would not have as much of an effect. Perhaps that is me being cynical, but they are certainly questions that can be levied at the former Spurs boss.
Timing aside, the way in which Redknapp has criticised the FA will do nothing to aid the England side as they prepare for the game against Poland. Any negative comments about the squad, manager and FA will inevitably destabilise the side, potentially even causing the seed of doubt into the minds of the England players. If the Montenegro game is anything to go by, we shouldn't worry too much about the mental effect, but nevertheless, it is hardly the ideal preparation. Redknapp has inherently criticised all three of those groups, claiming that recent performances at World Cups have not been acceptable, that the manager is not the right man, and as we have heard, aimed several shots across the bows of the FA. How much of this is influenced by the ludicrous expectations placed upon our national side by the media and the FA, I am unsure. However, we have been shown that our national team needs little excuse to implode, and these comments could certainly have been the catalyst.
In my opinion, Harry Redknapp has acted very much like a jilted lover. His bitter comments to the press are broadly similar to telling your friends embarrassing secrets about your ex after they have broken up with you. How malicious the intent of both the comments, and the timing of them, are cannot be proven, but my cynical mind tends to suspect that there is a very good reason for releasing his comments when he has. Such has his recent conduct been, I would almost expect him to have a rebound one-night stand managing another national side to try and make England jealous! His managerial failure with QPR has left him wildly blaming others for his decline, with the FA the prime recipients of his bile. If nothing else, this episode has illustrated precisely why the FA made the right decision to go with Hodgson. If a manager deals with disappointment by bitching about others to the press, he is hardly the professional you need. His media darling image has well and truly gone now, and I expect him to become the managerial equivalent of a spinster, with his only supporters his loyal bulldogs.
This post will be the last in my 'headline-makers' aspect to this England series, and has perhaps been the most damaging to English footballing stability. It concerns Roy Hodgson's appointment as England manager in the spring of 2012 was a surprise, as the front runner for the position from the start had been then Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp. The loveable Cockney Arry', best known for his transfer deadline day antics, most famously hanging out of his car window, and his odd resemblance to a bulldog, had proven himself to be one of the Premier League's top managers in the previous few seasons. Having taken Spurs from the relegation zone after 7 games of the 2008/2009 season, he transformed the North London club's fortunes, taking them to a league cup final in the same season, where they lost narrowly on penalties. The following year, he led Spurs to 4th place, and a Champions League spot for the first time in the club's history. A remarkable run in the competition took them to the quarter finals, where they had accept defeat against Real Madrid. Nevertheless, from the relegation zone to the quarter-finals of the Champions League in two years is a quite incredible run, and put the Spurs manager on the lips of many for the recently available post of England manager.
However, things took an unexpected turn for the Londoner. With all the distractions over his potential move, his Spurs side began to slide away from the title race in 2011/2012, even finishing behind local rivals Arsenal. This meant that they missed out on the automatic Champions League places, which would prove incredibly costly. With Chelsea winning the tournament, 4th was not enough to get them into the Champions League the following year. To make matters worse for media darling Arry', despite him being installed as overwhelming favourite to succeed Fabio Capello as England boss, the FA opted to go with Roy Hodgson, a decision met with derision by many in the footballing world. They say that bad things come in threes, and this was to be the case for Harry, as no sooner had the season concluded, with Spurs equalling their best ever finish to a Premier League season, he and Spurs parted ways, due to 'unresolved contract issues'. Since the dismissal, Redknapp's managerial career seems to have been in terminal decline. He quickly found employment in the form of struggling QPR last season, only to lead the club down, rock bottom of the Premier League. Since the speculation over the England job, he had not been the same successful Harry that football had known and come to love, and, underneath, there was developing a rather bitter edge to the Cockney manager that few had fully experienced.
This bitterness was suddenly thrust into the public eye with the release of his autobiography in October 2013. Here, he registers his disgust at the FA for the decision-making in the run-up to the announcement of Roy Hodgson as England manager. Whilst the former Spurs manager states that he never held anything against the former Fulham manager, the tone in which he wrote his words suggests exactly the opposite. Just read some of the words he (and by that I mean Martin Samuel) wrote: 'I wouldn't trust the FA to show me a good manager if their lives depended on it', 'Everyone says I was the people's choice, the only choice' and 'I got quite a few text messages at the time from players saying they would love me to manage England: Steven Gerrard, Wayne Rooney, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry. But the FA went for Roy Hodgson-a man who is more their cup of tea.' All of these quotes have an undertone of bitterness to them, and will do little to further his career.
These comments are also exactly what Roy Hodgson and England did not need in the build up to their two most critical World Cup Qualifiers for Brazil 2014. With England not guaranteed qualification, two performances (at home to firstly Montenegro, and then Poland) would be required to ensure their place in South America. Considering that Harry specifically says in his book that he wants England to do well, you have to question the release date of an autobiography that is so critical of the England manager and the FA. Surely it wouldn't have made any difference to Redknapp if he had waited to release his book for another week? Or perhaps that was his intention-especially if England did fail to qualify over the following two games. That way, he could point to the England performances as evidence of the FA's incompetence in appointing Hodgson over him, as predicted in his book. Had he released it a week later, he could be accused of acting in hindsight, when his claims would not have as much of an effect. Perhaps that is me being cynical, but they are certainly questions that can be levied at the former Spurs boss.
Timing aside, the way in which Redknapp has criticised the FA will do nothing to aid the England side as they prepare for the game against Poland. Any negative comments about the squad, manager and FA will inevitably destabilise the side, potentially even causing the seed of doubt into the minds of the England players. If the Montenegro game is anything to go by, we shouldn't worry too much about the mental effect, but nevertheless, it is hardly the ideal preparation. Redknapp has inherently criticised all three of those groups, claiming that recent performances at World Cups have not been acceptable, that the manager is not the right man, and as we have heard, aimed several shots across the bows of the FA. How much of this is influenced by the ludicrous expectations placed upon our national side by the media and the FA, I am unsure. However, we have been shown that our national team needs little excuse to implode, and these comments could certainly have been the catalyst.
In my opinion, Harry Redknapp has acted very much like a jilted lover. His bitter comments to the press are broadly similar to telling your friends embarrassing secrets about your ex after they have broken up with you. How malicious the intent of both the comments, and the timing of them, are cannot be proven, but my cynical mind tends to suspect that there is a very good reason for releasing his comments when he has. Such has his recent conduct been, I would almost expect him to have a rebound one-night stand managing another national side to try and make England jealous! His managerial failure with QPR has left him wildly blaming others for his decline, with the FA the prime recipients of his bile. If nothing else, this episode has illustrated precisely why the FA made the right decision to go with Hodgson. If a manager deals with disappointment by bitching about others to the press, he is hardly the professional you need. His media darling image has well and truly gone now, and I expect him to become the managerial equivalent of a spinster, with his only supporters his loyal bulldogs.
Sunday, 1 September 2013
The £85 Million Man: Is Bale Worth It?
In one of the summer's most drawn-out transfer sagas, Welsh winger Gareth Bale has finally got his wish and will don the famous white shirt for Real Madrid this season. In what has been reported as a world record fee of £85.3 Million, eclipsing the £80 Million that Madrid paid Manchester United for Cristiano Ronaldo back in 2008, Bale will have to bear the burden of that enormous fee. In this post, I will be looking back at the history of the world transfer record, and its progression through the decades. I will also be assessing Bale's abilities, asking whether he will be able to live up to that price tag, and, even more basic, whether he was worth that money in the first place?
Transfers between clubs were introduced a short while after player registrations in 1885. Transfer fees soon followed, as clubs realised that their players were financial assets. This led to the transfer record being set at £100 for West Bromwich Albion's Willie Groves, paid by Aston Villa. 12 years later, Middlesbrough would break the £1,000 mark for Sunderland's Alf Common. By 1928, that figure had added another 0, with Bolton Wanderers's David Jack transferring to Herbert Chapman's Arsenal for a fee of £10,890. The 1929 Wall Street Crash prevented the European clubs further breaking the record, but it did little to stem spending on transfer fees, with the next record set just 3 years later. Argentinian side River Plate bought Bernabe Ferreyra from fellow Argentine club Tigre for £23,000, more than doubling the previous record. That record remained until after the Second World War, with Derby County's £24,000 bid for Manchester United's Johnny Morris.
A year later, the record was £30,000, as Aston Villa sold Trevor Ford to Sunderland. After the half way point of the century, the records started to tumble as the price escalated. In 1952, the record had passed the £50,000 mark, with the first of seven consecutive Italian based records. Atalanta's Hans Jeppson was sold to Napoli for £52,000. Within two years, that had increased to £72,000, as AC Milan bought Penarol's Juan Schiaffino. The next landmark was passed in 1961, as Inter Milan's bid for Barcelona's Luis Suarez (not the bitey one) passed the six figure mark, at £152,000. Two years later, another landmark was passed, as Roma paid the first ever quarter of a million pounds fee for Mantova's Angelo Sormani. By 1968, that had doubled, with Pietro Anastasi bringing Varese £500,000 of Juventus's cash. After Johan Cruyff's move to Barcelona in 1973 for a fee of £922,000, the £1 Million mark was finally broken as Napoli paid £1.2 Million for Bologna's Giuseppe Savoldi. This would spark an even more rapid acceleration in fees.
The passing of the £1 Million mark was a significant point in football transfer history, as within ten years of that point, the record had quintupled. A year after Savoldi's transfer, Paolo Rossi added another £500,000 to the record, transferring from Vicenza to Juventus. Then came a pair of records for the same man, just two years apart. The world's best player at the time, and arguably of all time, Diego Maradona, smashed the record in 1982, moving from Argentinian side Boca Juniors to Barcelona for a fee of £3 Million. After the briefest of spells with the Catalan side, he was on the move again two years later, breaking his own record with a £5 Million move to Napoli. That record would not last until the end of the decade however, with Ruud Gullit's 1987 transfer from PSV Eindhoven to AC Milan adding another £1 Million to the record. Just 5 years later, we saw the start of the 'modern era' of transfer fees, with the inaugural £10 Million transfer for Marseille's Jean-Pierre Papin from AC Milan. That record would not last a year, with first Gianluca Vialli's move to Juventus (£12 Million) and then Gianluigi Lentini's to AC Milan (£13 Million).
The final English team to break the world transfer record to date occurred in 1996, with the return of the 'prodigal son' Alan Shearer to his hometown Newcastle United from Blackburn, for a fee of £15 Million. At the time, this transfer was considered to be obscene. Few could have predicted the course the next 15 or so years would take in terms of finances. For each of the next 5 years, the transfer record was repeatedly broken. 1997 saw Brazilian legend Ronaldo move from Barcelona to Inter Milan for a reported £19.5 Million. In 1998, Denilson would add another £2.5 Million to this, taking the total past the £20 Million mark with his move to Real Betis. The following year, Christian Vieri's move from Lazio to Inter Milan blitzed this, with a fee of £32 Million. And still the spending did not stop. The turn of the millenium saw the record broken twice, with firstly Hernan Crespo's move to Lazio from Parma (£35.5 Million), before Luis Figo made the controversial move across the El Clasico line from Barcelona to Real Madrid for £37 Million. This marked the beginning of the Real Madrid dominance in terms of transfer records, as another three would follow.
A year later, in 2001, Zinedine Zidane saw the completion of the famous 'Galacticos' of the early 2000's. His transfer from Juventus for £46.6 Million completed an unbelievable run of spending from the Spanish side, and many believed that the fee commanded by the Italians would never be beaten. It certainly ended the run of yearly record-breaking, leaving a good 8 years before the next record. However, the Real Madrid spending of the late 90s and early 2000's sparked an inflated price for all footballers, and £10-20 Million fees became commonplace in Europe's top leagues. By 2009, financial powerhouses like Chelsea, and then Manchester City were beginning to come to the fore, but the election of Real Madrid chairman Florentino Perez sparked another bout of staggering spending. He firstly spent £56 Million on Brazil's playmaker Kaka, who had led AC Milan to Champions League glory two seasons before, and then obliterated that record just two months later, landing Manchester United's prolific forward Cristiano Ronaldo for a ridiculous £80 Million. This is the record that Gareth Bale has outdone with his transfer today.
Or has he? If we adjust the previous transfer records for inflation since the records were made, we see some vast increases. Here are a few notable changes. The very first transfer record, set by Willie Groves in 1885 at £100, would today be worth £10,417.26. The first £10,000 transfer, set in 1928, David Jack, would now cost £578,804.59, and the 1952 £52,000 transfer of Hans Jeppson would set a modern club back £1,267,432.40. These changes indicate the relative value of players to today's standards, as a £1.2 Million player would be considered a steal. Even Diego Maradona, considered one of the best players ever to have played, cannot challenge the value of his contemporary peers. His 1984 move to Napoli for £5 Million would cost just £13,626,500.00, or less than Wilfried Zaha. Whilst the young Englishman looks a prospect, few would expect him to be in the same league as the Argentine.
As we moved into the modern day era, here we can begin to discover whether Bale really is the world's most valuable player. Alan Shearer's 1996 fee of £15 Million equates to £23,848,500, Luis Figo's 2000 £37 Million transfer becomes £52,784,200, and Zinedine Zidane, the most expensive of the Galaticos at £46.6 Million in 2001, gets even closer at £65,305,240. He beats Kaka (£63 Million), but even he remains a good £20 Million away from the Bale fee. Only Cristiano Ronaldo's £80 Million price is left between Bale and the MVP accolade. However, in the four years that have passed since that transfer, inflation has taken the value of Ronaldo past the £90 Million mark, at a grand total of £90,848,000.00. This makes Ronaldo the most valuable player in the history of association football, but Bale retains the 'highest transfer fee commanded' tag.
Semantics aside, £85.3 Million is a whole lot of money to pay for an individual player. So is the Welshman worth it? I will start by assessing whether Bale will be able to live up to the pressure of the £85.3 Million price tag placed on his shoulders, before comparing his attributes to that of previous greats to determine whether he is worth that relative to other players. A major concern for clubs when agreeing a deal for that amount is whether the numbers will act as a weight on the back of the player in question. I will give an example. Fernando Torres, at both Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, was a scoring machine. Consistently into 20/30 goals a season, his £15 Million transfer from Spain to Merseyside seemed a bargain, and it evidently put no pressure on him. However, Chelsea's January 2011 £50 Million move for the Spaniard seemingly pressurised him. 'El Nino's' spark was gone, and he has yet to fully recover, having failed to trouble the top goalscorers in the Premier League since his big money move down South. The worry is that Bale will react in a similar way. Having arrived at Spurs for a mere £10 Million back in 2007, the winger has had no expectations thrust upon him, and as a result has been able to ride the crest of the wave. Now, he will instantly find every move he makes under intense scrutiny. Some players can handle it, and some cannot.
However, one of his new teammates knows all about the pressure of a big price tag. Cristiano Ronaldo has thrived since his £80 Million move from Man United in 2009, and he will undoubtedly play a significant role in ensuring Bale stays at the top of his game. The Portuguese striker has been in Bale's place, and will be able to give the Welshman valuable advice on dealing with the pressure. I am not saying that Bale will not have wobbles, or find himself out of form at times, but he will have someone that understands his situation, and will be able to help him through the hard times.
But is Bale really worth £85 Million? How do his abilities compare with those of his fellow record breakers? He is certainly no better at passing than Zidane, or any quicker than Ronaldo, or better at finishing than Vieri, but he does have that spark. The ability to create something out of nothing is a rare one indeed, and you see it in so few top players. As for the valuation placed on that ability, I think that unless he single-handledly wins them multiple Champions League titles, which is highly unlikely, he will not come close to paying back that amount. I personally disagree with the idea that any footballer is worth that sum, however, perhaps it is best to say that it is similar to art. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
Transfers between clubs were introduced a short while after player registrations in 1885. Transfer fees soon followed, as clubs realised that their players were financial assets. This led to the transfer record being set at £100 for West Bromwich Albion's Willie Groves, paid by Aston Villa. 12 years later, Middlesbrough would break the £1,000 mark for Sunderland's Alf Common. By 1928, that figure had added another 0, with Bolton Wanderers's David Jack transferring to Herbert Chapman's Arsenal for a fee of £10,890. The 1929 Wall Street Crash prevented the European clubs further breaking the record, but it did little to stem spending on transfer fees, with the next record set just 3 years later. Argentinian side River Plate bought Bernabe Ferreyra from fellow Argentine club Tigre for £23,000, more than doubling the previous record. That record remained until after the Second World War, with Derby County's £24,000 bid for Manchester United's Johnny Morris.
A year later, the record was £30,000, as Aston Villa sold Trevor Ford to Sunderland. After the half way point of the century, the records started to tumble as the price escalated. In 1952, the record had passed the £50,000 mark, with the first of seven consecutive Italian based records. Atalanta's Hans Jeppson was sold to Napoli for £52,000. Within two years, that had increased to £72,000, as AC Milan bought Penarol's Juan Schiaffino. The next landmark was passed in 1961, as Inter Milan's bid for Barcelona's Luis Suarez (not the bitey one) passed the six figure mark, at £152,000. Two years later, another landmark was passed, as Roma paid the first ever quarter of a million pounds fee for Mantova's Angelo Sormani. By 1968, that had doubled, with Pietro Anastasi bringing Varese £500,000 of Juventus's cash. After Johan Cruyff's move to Barcelona in 1973 for a fee of £922,000, the £1 Million mark was finally broken as Napoli paid £1.2 Million for Bologna's Giuseppe Savoldi. This would spark an even more rapid acceleration in fees.
The passing of the £1 Million mark was a significant point in football transfer history, as within ten years of that point, the record had quintupled. A year after Savoldi's transfer, Paolo Rossi added another £500,000 to the record, transferring from Vicenza to Juventus. Then came a pair of records for the same man, just two years apart. The world's best player at the time, and arguably of all time, Diego Maradona, smashed the record in 1982, moving from Argentinian side Boca Juniors to Barcelona for a fee of £3 Million. After the briefest of spells with the Catalan side, he was on the move again two years later, breaking his own record with a £5 Million move to Napoli. That record would not last until the end of the decade however, with Ruud Gullit's 1987 transfer from PSV Eindhoven to AC Milan adding another £1 Million to the record. Just 5 years later, we saw the start of the 'modern era' of transfer fees, with the inaugural £10 Million transfer for Marseille's Jean-Pierre Papin from AC Milan. That record would not last a year, with first Gianluca Vialli's move to Juventus (£12 Million) and then Gianluigi Lentini's to AC Milan (£13 Million).
The final English team to break the world transfer record to date occurred in 1996, with the return of the 'prodigal son' Alan Shearer to his hometown Newcastle United from Blackburn, for a fee of £15 Million. At the time, this transfer was considered to be obscene. Few could have predicted the course the next 15 or so years would take in terms of finances. For each of the next 5 years, the transfer record was repeatedly broken. 1997 saw Brazilian legend Ronaldo move from Barcelona to Inter Milan for a reported £19.5 Million. In 1998, Denilson would add another £2.5 Million to this, taking the total past the £20 Million mark with his move to Real Betis. The following year, Christian Vieri's move from Lazio to Inter Milan blitzed this, with a fee of £32 Million. And still the spending did not stop. The turn of the millenium saw the record broken twice, with firstly Hernan Crespo's move to Lazio from Parma (£35.5 Million), before Luis Figo made the controversial move across the El Clasico line from Barcelona to Real Madrid for £37 Million. This marked the beginning of the Real Madrid dominance in terms of transfer records, as another three would follow.
A year later, in 2001, Zinedine Zidane saw the completion of the famous 'Galacticos' of the early 2000's. His transfer from Juventus for £46.6 Million completed an unbelievable run of spending from the Spanish side, and many believed that the fee commanded by the Italians would never be beaten. It certainly ended the run of yearly record-breaking, leaving a good 8 years before the next record. However, the Real Madrid spending of the late 90s and early 2000's sparked an inflated price for all footballers, and £10-20 Million fees became commonplace in Europe's top leagues. By 2009, financial powerhouses like Chelsea, and then Manchester City were beginning to come to the fore, but the election of Real Madrid chairman Florentino Perez sparked another bout of staggering spending. He firstly spent £56 Million on Brazil's playmaker Kaka, who had led AC Milan to Champions League glory two seasons before, and then obliterated that record just two months later, landing Manchester United's prolific forward Cristiano Ronaldo for a ridiculous £80 Million. This is the record that Gareth Bale has outdone with his transfer today.
Or has he? If we adjust the previous transfer records for inflation since the records were made, we see some vast increases. Here are a few notable changes. The very first transfer record, set by Willie Groves in 1885 at £100, would today be worth £10,417.26. The first £10,000 transfer, set in 1928, David Jack, would now cost £578,804.59, and the 1952 £52,000 transfer of Hans Jeppson would set a modern club back £1,267,432.40. These changes indicate the relative value of players to today's standards, as a £1.2 Million player would be considered a steal. Even Diego Maradona, considered one of the best players ever to have played, cannot challenge the value of his contemporary peers. His 1984 move to Napoli for £5 Million would cost just £13,626,500.00, or less than Wilfried Zaha. Whilst the young Englishman looks a prospect, few would expect him to be in the same league as the Argentine.
As we moved into the modern day era, here we can begin to discover whether Bale really is the world's most valuable player. Alan Shearer's 1996 fee of £15 Million equates to £23,848,500, Luis Figo's 2000 £37 Million transfer becomes £52,784,200, and Zinedine Zidane, the most expensive of the Galaticos at £46.6 Million in 2001, gets even closer at £65,305,240. He beats Kaka (£63 Million), but even he remains a good £20 Million away from the Bale fee. Only Cristiano Ronaldo's £80 Million price is left between Bale and the MVP accolade. However, in the four years that have passed since that transfer, inflation has taken the value of Ronaldo past the £90 Million mark, at a grand total of £90,848,000.00. This makes Ronaldo the most valuable player in the history of association football, but Bale retains the 'highest transfer fee commanded' tag.
Semantics aside, £85.3 Million is a whole lot of money to pay for an individual player. So is the Welshman worth it? I will start by assessing whether Bale will be able to live up to the pressure of the £85.3 Million price tag placed on his shoulders, before comparing his attributes to that of previous greats to determine whether he is worth that relative to other players. A major concern for clubs when agreeing a deal for that amount is whether the numbers will act as a weight on the back of the player in question. I will give an example. Fernando Torres, at both Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, was a scoring machine. Consistently into 20/30 goals a season, his £15 Million transfer from Spain to Merseyside seemed a bargain, and it evidently put no pressure on him. However, Chelsea's January 2011 £50 Million move for the Spaniard seemingly pressurised him. 'El Nino's' spark was gone, and he has yet to fully recover, having failed to trouble the top goalscorers in the Premier League since his big money move down South. The worry is that Bale will react in a similar way. Having arrived at Spurs for a mere £10 Million back in 2007, the winger has had no expectations thrust upon him, and as a result has been able to ride the crest of the wave. Now, he will instantly find every move he makes under intense scrutiny. Some players can handle it, and some cannot.
However, one of his new teammates knows all about the pressure of a big price tag. Cristiano Ronaldo has thrived since his £80 Million move from Man United in 2009, and he will undoubtedly play a significant role in ensuring Bale stays at the top of his game. The Portuguese striker has been in Bale's place, and will be able to give the Welshman valuable advice on dealing with the pressure. I am not saying that Bale will not have wobbles, or find himself out of form at times, but he will have someone that understands his situation, and will be able to help him through the hard times.
But is Bale really worth £85 Million? How do his abilities compare with those of his fellow record breakers? He is certainly no better at passing than Zidane, or any quicker than Ronaldo, or better at finishing than Vieri, but he does have that spark. The ability to create something out of nothing is a rare one indeed, and you see it in so few top players. As for the valuation placed on that ability, I think that unless he single-handledly wins them multiple Champions League titles, which is highly unlikely, he will not come close to paying back that amount. I personally disagree with the idea that any footballer is worth that sum, however, perhaps it is best to say that it is similar to art. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
Friday, 16 August 2013
Tottenham Hotspur: Does The Season Hinge On Bale?
2012/2013: 5th
Transfer(s) In: Nacer Chadli (FC Twente, £7 Million), Paulinho (Corinthians, £17 Million), Roberto Soldado (Valencia, £26 Million), Etienne Capoue (Toulouse, £9 Million), Vladimir Chiriches (Steaua Bucharest, £7.5 Million), Erik Lamela (AS Roma, £25 Million), Christian Eriksen (Ajax, £11 Million)
Transfer(s) Out: Tom Huddlestone (Hull, Undisc), Tom Livermore (Hull, Loan), Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders, £6 Million), Steven Caulker (Cardiff, £8 Million), David Bentley, William Gallas (Released), Scott Parker (Fulham, Undisc), Gareth Bale (Real Madrid, £85.3 Million)
Transfers Review:
Andre Villas Boas has been tasked with bringing Champions League football to White Hart Lane in 2014, and to do that he has made signings totalling over £110 Million. All will add massively to the current Spurs squad, but the most interesting signing for me is Paulinho. The young Brazilian defensive midfielder is the ideal signing for Spurs, who have lacked bite and flair in the central positions. Paulinho impressed me with his performances at the Confederations Cup, and I am certain that he will be an excellent addition to Tottenham's squad. The other position the Lily Whites desperately needed at the end of last season was an out and out striker, with only the aging Jermain Defoe, and the out of touch Emmanuel Adebayor to show for the forward line. This left a heavy burden on the midfield to score goals, a feat which was taken by one man. However, Spurs have attempted to rectify this situation for the new season, with 29 year old Roberto Soldado being recruited from Valencia. A bit of a risk, as at 29, his best years are probably behind him, making £26 Million a lot to pay. However, his clinical finishing and awareness means that I still think he will propel Spurs towards that 4th spot this year.
Other than those two, AVB has strengthened their already abundantly talented wings, with Nacer Chadli being brought in from Holland, and, more recently, another central midfielder has joined the side, in the form of Etienne Capoue. Both of these will probably be used as cover for the first team, but they are both high quality players, and simply go to show the strength in depth that Spurs have at White Hart Lane. In the days leading up to the deadline, Vladimir Chiriches, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen would all be signed to cover for Gareth Bale, who eventually moved to Madrid.
In terms of outgoings, Spurs's summer has been dominated by the attention that last year's PFA Player of the Year Gareth Bale has been receiving from Real Madrid. With the Spanish side reported to have offered a world record £85 Million for the winger, chairman Daniel Levy has apparently had to issue a hands-off warning to the La Liga giants. However, the longer this saga dragged on, the more it appeared that the Welshman would be on his way to Madrid this summer, especially seeing as Tottenham could not offer him the Champions League football he so craved. This was the case on Sunday 1st September, as the world record deal was finally concluded. Other than this, Tottenham have managed to hold onto many of their star names from previous seasons, with Clint Dempsey and William Gallas the regular starters for the Lily Whites to have departed.
Pre-Season:
Tottenham began their pre-season preparations with a game away at Swindon Town, before setting off to take part in the Barclays Asia Trophy in Hong Kong. After a Gareth Bale goal to hand Spurs the lead, Swindon levelled and held on to claim a 1-1 draw. Just before Tottenham set off on their Asia Trophy adventure, the news broke that Real Madrid were interested in the Welsh forward. Around that time, the forward got a mysterious 'injury', ruling him out of the competition, and, as it proved, the rest of Tottenham's pre-season.
In his absence, the Tottenham squad had a poor first performance against Sunderland in their semi-final, eventually losing the game 3-1. The following day they played the third place playoff match against South China. Here we saw the North London side back to their best, with goals from Dempsey, Townsend, an own goal and a hat-trick from Defoe gave them a 6-0 victory on an awful playing surface. After the disappointment of losing the chance to play for a trophy, Spurs moved back to Europe to play an exhibition match against big spending Monaco in the principality. Here, their Champions League credentials were tested, and they came up very short. A Radamel Falcao hat-trick condemned Spurs to their second pre-season defeat, this time conceding 5 in a 5-2 demolition. Spurs finished their turbulent preparation with a 1-1 draw against Espanyol, not exactly propelling them into a league season. The Gareth Bale saga still rumbles on, and threatens to derail their start.
Key Players:
This could prove to be a big season for Aaron Lennon. The English wide man will find himself under increasing pressure from the likes of Nacer Chadli this season, but normally, the best players will perform best when under pressure for their places. I feel that this will be the season that we see the speed freak back to his best, terrorising defences both domestically and on the continent with his pace, and providing many goals for his team mates.
Jan Vertonghen will also need to carry his excellent form from last season into this campaign if Spurs are to go one better this time around. The Belgian got progressively better and better as the season went on, and I would not be surprised if he became the rock at the back for the Lily Whites this season.
Key Fixture Dates:
01/09/2013: Arsenal vs Tottenham
28/09/2013: Tottenham vs Chelsea
03/11/2013: Everton vs Tottenham
23/11/2013: Manchester City vs Tottenham
30/11/2013: Tottenham vs Manchester United
14/12/2013: Tottenham vs Liverpool
01/01/2014: Manchester United vs Tottenham
29/01/2014: Tottenham vs Manchester City
08/02/2014: Tottenham vs Everton
08/03/2014: Chelsea vs Tottenham
15/03/2014: Tottenham vs Arsenal
29/03/2014: Liverpool vs Tottenham
Top Goalscorer:
After the big money signing, I would be very surprised if Roberto Soldado didn't finish up as the Tottenham top scorer this season. His international and continental experience will provide him with an excellent basis for scoring goals in whatever competition he wants. I don't necessarily expect him to win the Golden Boot this year, but a 20 goal season is the least that Spurs fans can expect after the massive amount that was spent to bring him to London.
Prediction:
In reality, the two major contenders for the fourth place finish this season are the two North London clubs, with Liverpool the dark horse. Based solely on the squads, you would have to say that seeing as Arsenal have failed to add to theirs, whilst Tottenham have now got strength in all areas after spending that £110 Million, I would have to conclude that Spurs are now the favourites for the final Champions League spot. I still fancy them to just nick it whatever happens, but it certainly has potential to be the most interesting season yet.
Tottenham Hotspur 2013/2014: 4th
Transfer(s) In: Nacer Chadli (FC Twente, £7 Million), Paulinho (Corinthians, £17 Million), Roberto Soldado (Valencia, £26 Million), Etienne Capoue (Toulouse, £9 Million), Vladimir Chiriches (Steaua Bucharest, £7.5 Million), Erik Lamela (AS Roma, £25 Million), Christian Eriksen (Ajax, £11 Million)
Transfer(s) Out: Tom Huddlestone (Hull, Undisc), Tom Livermore (Hull, Loan), Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders, £6 Million), Steven Caulker (Cardiff, £8 Million), David Bentley, William Gallas (Released), Scott Parker (Fulham, Undisc), Gareth Bale (Real Madrid, £85.3 Million)
Transfers Review:
Andre Villas Boas has been tasked with bringing Champions League football to White Hart Lane in 2014, and to do that he has made signings totalling over £110 Million. All will add massively to the current Spurs squad, but the most interesting signing for me is Paulinho. The young Brazilian defensive midfielder is the ideal signing for Spurs, who have lacked bite and flair in the central positions. Paulinho impressed me with his performances at the Confederations Cup, and I am certain that he will be an excellent addition to Tottenham's squad. The other position the Lily Whites desperately needed at the end of last season was an out and out striker, with only the aging Jermain Defoe, and the out of touch Emmanuel Adebayor to show for the forward line. This left a heavy burden on the midfield to score goals, a feat which was taken by one man. However, Spurs have attempted to rectify this situation for the new season, with 29 year old Roberto Soldado being recruited from Valencia. A bit of a risk, as at 29, his best years are probably behind him, making £26 Million a lot to pay. However, his clinical finishing and awareness means that I still think he will propel Spurs towards that 4th spot this year.
Other than those two, AVB has strengthened their already abundantly talented wings, with Nacer Chadli being brought in from Holland, and, more recently, another central midfielder has joined the side, in the form of Etienne Capoue. Both of these will probably be used as cover for the first team, but they are both high quality players, and simply go to show the strength in depth that Spurs have at White Hart Lane. In the days leading up to the deadline, Vladimir Chiriches, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen would all be signed to cover for Gareth Bale, who eventually moved to Madrid.
In terms of outgoings, Spurs's summer has been dominated by the attention that last year's PFA Player of the Year Gareth Bale has been receiving from Real Madrid. With the Spanish side reported to have offered a world record £85 Million for the winger, chairman Daniel Levy has apparently had to issue a hands-off warning to the La Liga giants. However, the longer this saga dragged on, the more it appeared that the Welshman would be on his way to Madrid this summer, especially seeing as Tottenham could not offer him the Champions League football he so craved. This was the case on Sunday 1st September, as the world record deal was finally concluded. Other than this, Tottenham have managed to hold onto many of their star names from previous seasons, with Clint Dempsey and William Gallas the regular starters for the Lily Whites to have departed.
Pre-Season:
Tottenham began their pre-season preparations with a game away at Swindon Town, before setting off to take part in the Barclays Asia Trophy in Hong Kong. After a Gareth Bale goal to hand Spurs the lead, Swindon levelled and held on to claim a 1-1 draw. Just before Tottenham set off on their Asia Trophy adventure, the news broke that Real Madrid were interested in the Welsh forward. Around that time, the forward got a mysterious 'injury', ruling him out of the competition, and, as it proved, the rest of Tottenham's pre-season.
In his absence, the Tottenham squad had a poor first performance against Sunderland in their semi-final, eventually losing the game 3-1. The following day they played the third place playoff match against South China. Here we saw the North London side back to their best, with goals from Dempsey, Townsend, an own goal and a hat-trick from Defoe gave them a 6-0 victory on an awful playing surface. After the disappointment of losing the chance to play for a trophy, Spurs moved back to Europe to play an exhibition match against big spending Monaco in the principality. Here, their Champions League credentials were tested, and they came up very short. A Radamel Falcao hat-trick condemned Spurs to their second pre-season defeat, this time conceding 5 in a 5-2 demolition. Spurs finished their turbulent preparation with a 1-1 draw against Espanyol, not exactly propelling them into a league season. The Gareth Bale saga still rumbles on, and threatens to derail their start.
Key Players:
This could prove to be a big season for Aaron Lennon. The English wide man will find himself under increasing pressure from the likes of Nacer Chadli this season, but normally, the best players will perform best when under pressure for their places. I feel that this will be the season that we see the speed freak back to his best, terrorising defences both domestically and on the continent with his pace, and providing many goals for his team mates.
Jan Vertonghen will also need to carry his excellent form from last season into this campaign if Spurs are to go one better this time around. The Belgian got progressively better and better as the season went on, and I would not be surprised if he became the rock at the back for the Lily Whites this season.
Key Fixture Dates:
01/09/2013: Arsenal vs Tottenham
28/09/2013: Tottenham vs Chelsea
03/11/2013: Everton vs Tottenham
23/11/2013: Manchester City vs Tottenham
30/11/2013: Tottenham vs Manchester United
14/12/2013: Tottenham vs Liverpool
01/01/2014: Manchester United vs Tottenham
29/01/2014: Tottenham vs Manchester City
08/02/2014: Tottenham vs Everton
08/03/2014: Chelsea vs Tottenham
15/03/2014: Tottenham vs Arsenal
29/03/2014: Liverpool vs Tottenham
Top Goalscorer:
After the big money signing, I would be very surprised if Roberto Soldado didn't finish up as the Tottenham top scorer this season. His international and continental experience will provide him with an excellent basis for scoring goals in whatever competition he wants. I don't necessarily expect him to win the Golden Boot this year, but a 20 goal season is the least that Spurs fans can expect after the massive amount that was spent to bring him to London.
Prediction:
In reality, the two major contenders for the fourth place finish this season are the two North London clubs, with Liverpool the dark horse. Based solely on the squads, you would have to say that seeing as Arsenal have failed to add to theirs, whilst Tottenham have now got strength in all areas after spending that £110 Million, I would have to conclude that Spurs are now the favourites for the final Champions League spot. I still fancy them to just nick it whatever happens, but it certainly has potential to be the most interesting season yet.
Tottenham Hotspur 2013/2014: 4th
Thursday, 20 June 2013
2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Champions League)
This week marked the announcement of the fixtures for the 2013/14 Premier League. Using the initial fixture list, this week I will be doing a series of four blog posts. The first three concern the potential impact of the fixtures on the races for the title, the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. In the final post in the series, I will be uploading a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, designed to allow people to get involved in my annual predictions competition. In this second, I will be assessing the fixture list, and analysing its potential impact upon the race for the final Champions League spot. This race has been fiercely fought over the last few years, with the rewards for qualifying particularly lucrative. Based on the last few years, it is relatively safe to assume that the primary contenders for the 4th place spot this year will be Arsenal, Tottenham and possibly Liverpool. Whilst I accept that anomalies may occur (Newcastle in 2012 springs to mind), these are incredibly difficult to predict, even with the influence of the fixtures. Nevertheless, where possible I will try, but I will be predominantly focusing on the three expected contenders.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.
Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.
The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.
Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.
Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.
Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.
Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.
Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.
Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.
The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.
Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.
Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.
Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.
Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.
Friday, 24 May 2013
Tottenham Hotspur: Last Day European Heartbreak Once More
2012/2013 Season
Review:
With
Harry Redknapp’s departure at the end of the previous season, Tottenham were
left in a state of uncertainty, as the Englishman was widely considered to be
the best man for the job. The chairman, Daniel Levy, decided to take a risk on
Chelsea reject Andre Villas Boas. Considering that Chelsea paid £12 million to
get AVB out of his contract at Porto, to get him on a free is a significant
saving. AVB quickly got to work in the transfer market, bringing in Ajax’s Jan
Vertonghen, Manchester City’s Emmanuel Adebayor and Lyon’s Hugo Lloris before
the start of the campaign. However, these additions failed to get Spurs off to
a good start, losing their first league game 2-1 away at Newcastle, and only
drawing their opening two home league games against weaker opposition.
With
these poor early performances, AVB secured two further signings, with Clint
Dempsey and Moussa Dembele tasked with creating and scoring more goals.
Tottenham’s league form then began to improve, with three consecutive league
wins in September, the last of which being their first win at Old Trafford in
23 years. Unfortunately, Tottenham’s European form failed to match their good
domestic performances, drawing their opening three games and leaving the Londoners
in danger of exiting the competition in the group stages. Their league form
then began to dip, as defeats at home to Chelsea and, more alarmingly, Wigan,
left Spurs a way behind the league leaders. During the poor run, Tottenham also
exited the Capital One Cup, with a Fourth Round defeat away at Norwich. Further
controversy over the destination of the goalkeeper’s jersey dominated this
period, as Brad Friedel’s early season form was keeping big money summer
signing Hugo Lloris out of the side. A poor defeat away at Manchester City and
then a horror show at rivals Arsenal seemingly made AVB’s mind up, as Lloris
became ever more preferred as the season went on.
After
the disastrous Arsenal result, Tottenham were shaken into life, and their
league form gradually began to improve. Three successive league victories,
including an important win over Liverpool, followed the derby aberration, and
they ensured progression in the Europa League, beating Panathinaikos 3-1 in the
final group stage game. During December, Spurs’ flying winger, Gareth Bale,
really began to come to the fore, with excellent performances either side of
Christmas, and a habit for scoring spectacular goals. By the turn of the year,
Tottenham sat just below the Champions League spaces, and with a very good
chance of qualifying for the competition automatically. Bales’ fantastic form
continued after the New Year, where, apart from a poor performance in the FA
Cup against Leeds United, Tottenham remained unbeaten for the whole of January,
including a heartening performance against runaway leaders Manchester United.
As the
season ticked into February, it was becoming more and more obvious that the
battle for the final two Champions League places would be between Chelsea,
Arsenal and Spurs, with all hitting good form as the season moved towards its
climax. As a result, we saw more and more dramatic results and finishes to
games, with none of the three teams able to slip up. February saw a
continuation of the good form of the previous month, and ended with a stunning
Bale goal away at West Ham to win the game 3-2. Having also claimed a two leg victory
over Lyon in the Europa League Last 32, Spurs were drawn against old foes Inter
Milan in the Round of 16. Firstly though, they had to negotiate a crunch derby
game at home to Arsenal, and one that could have a significant impact on the
top 4 places. A tight first half exploded into life with two Spurs goals in the
space of three minutes, as firstly Bale and then Aaron Lennon put the Lily
Whites in a commanding position. Per Mertesacker headed in from a corner to
reduce the arrears for the Gunners, and precipitated a grandstand finish, in
which Arsenal poured forward in search of an equaliser. It never came, and
Spurs held on to strengthen their grip on 4th place.
After a
brilliant 3-0 victory over Inter at home, Spurs travelled to Milan knowing that
only exceptional circumstances would see them eliminated from the Europa League.
Unfortunately, without the injured Gareth Bale, Spurs were poor throughout,
ending up being fortunate to make it to extra time. An Emmanuel Adebayor goal
gave Spurs a priceless away goal, leaving Inter unable to respond.
Nevertheless, a shock for AVB and his side, reminding them that they cannot
afford to take their foot off the gas. April turned into a very damaging month
for the Lily Whites, going out of the Europa League at the hands of FC Basle,
and dropping valuable points in the race for fourth, handing momentum back to
Arsenal. Three wins out of their four remaining games was not sufficient to see
Spurs into the Champions League, missing out once again on the final day to
their great rivals. Reminiscent of the end of the 2006 season, where Spurs were
unable to field a full side due to a mysterious intestinal illness, leaving
Arsenal clear to take the final Champions League spot.
Overall,
a successful but disappointing season. AVB has clearly continued when Redknapp
left off, only narrowly missing out on Champions League competition. Whilst
they had a good chance to win the Europa League, their league form has been
encouraging, and in Gareth Bale, they have arguably the third best footballer
on the planet.
Player of the Season:
Gareth Bale – The Welshman’s most successful season to date. His pace,
dribbling and ability to score truly outstanding goals has made him an
incredibly valuable asset to the Spurs side. This season in particular, he has
at times carried this side, picking up points almost single-handedly. Having
failed to deliver Champions League football, I fear for Tottenham attempting to
keep the winger, as there are many that are looking for his signature.
Game of the Season: West
Ham 2-3 Tottenham – An enthralling game, which swayed first one way, then the
other, as Tottenham took an early lead through Bale, before a clumsy Scott
Parker challenge gave Andy Carroll the chance to level the scores from the
spot. A chance he took, and momentum swung wholly in the Hammers favour when
Joe Cole drilled a shot past Lloris to turn the game on its head. A valiant
Tottenham fighback ensued, with Gylfi Sigurdsson levelling with quarter of an
hour to play. This led to an incredibly open final ten minutes, with both sides
going for the victory. With time running out, Gareth Bale received the ball a
full 30 yards from goal, and unleashed an unstoppable drive to beat the
helpless Jussi Jaaskelainen and keep Spurs in the hunt for the Champions
League.
Summer Transfer
Targets (What I Think They Need): Inevitably, the talk this summer will be
all about whether they can keep hold of Bale. If not, I fear that he will be irreplaceable.
If they do manage to keep him, only minor changes will be required to push
Spurs that couple of points forward next year. A top quality striker and left
back may be reasonable transfer targets, with David Villa and Ignazio Abate
possible signings.
Transfer Gossip
Links:
In:
Leandro Damiao (Internacional, ST), Thomas Ince (Blackpool,
RW), Roberto Soldado (Valencia, ST), Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, ST), Heung
Min Son (Hamburg, ST), Abdelaziz Barrada (Getafe, LM), Sergi Roberto
(Barcelona, LB), Miralem Pjanic (Roma, CM), David Villa (Barcelona, ST),
Alberto Botia (Sevilla, LB), Joao Moutinho (Porto, CM)
Out:
Gareth Bale (Real Madrid, LM), Danny Rose
(Sunderland, RB), Emmanuel Adebayor (AS Monaco, ST), Aaron Lennon (Inter Milan,
RW)
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