Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.

Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.

Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.

Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.

Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).

For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.

I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.

After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)

As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.

For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.

Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.

Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.

I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.

After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)

With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.

This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.

End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)

So what of my prediction?

Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?

2013 Singapore Grand Prix: Has The Night Race Put The Title To Bed?

                          This weekend's Singapore Grand Prix from Marina Bay has perhaps pull the final nail in the coffin of this season's Driver Championship. With Sebastian Vettel leaving the Asian city-state 60 points ahead with only 150 remaining, it seems now a case of when and not if the German will take his fourth consecutive drivers' title. It is an incredible feat, matched only by fellow German Michael Schumacher, and he will be hoping to surpass his compatriot's record in the coming years. With the amount of years left in the Red Bull driver's career, I would not be at all surprised if Vettel did manage to take all of Schumacher's records away from him one-by-one, just less than a decade after people said they would never be beaten. It is an indication of the incredible domination Vettel has had on the sport, and no race has illustrated this more than the Singapore Grand Prix this weekend.

                           The big news in the weeks in between the Italian Grand Prix and the trip to Marina Bay is that Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen, who had already spurned an approach from Red Bull, decided instead to move to his former employers Ferrari for the start of the 2014 season. My initial reaction to the Finn's decision was that he had decided to return to the team he won his one and only title with, and that the Italian side remained the most likely team to repeat that success with. Therefore, the decision seemed to be odd from the perspective that the Finn turned down Red Bull, but sensible on the basis that he is familiar with many of the Ferrari team, and I feel that he will settle in quicker with. However, reports over the following days suggested that Raikkonen's decision was motivated by both success and finances. The former McLaren man, in interviews with the international media, implied that he had decided to make the move to the Scuderia as Lotus had failed to pay his wages for a month. This simply puts the icing on the cake for the Finn, who has enjoyed a reasonable amount of success with the British team, but he needs to make that step up the grid if he wants to realistically challenge for any titles in the future.

                             Raikkonen, who was also suffering the effects of an injection he had into his back, was clearly still distracted by his new contract, as his qualifying did not go to plan. On any street circuit it is important to qualify well, as those further down the grid are more succeptible to first lap incidents, and getting stuck behind slower cars in front. In Q1, the Red Bulls, who had also dominated the practice sessions, were the only team able to cruise through into Q2 using only the hard tyres. Even the Mercedes, who have been notoriously good on a single lap, were unable to just stay on the hard tyres. Ferrari had an unwanted scare, as Felipe Massa found himself in the bottom 6 as the flag dropped. Fortunately for the Italians, the Brazilian managed to get himself into the relative safety of mid-table, but he did little to put himself in the shop window. The big casualty from Q1 was Paul di Resta. The Brit has struggled in recent races, and is no longer a stranger to exiting in the first qualifying session, so perhaps it should not be such a shock. Q2 saw Raikkonen depart as the big name dropout, as his back caused him too much pain to get his best lap. The man to take his place was Esteban Gutierrez. The Sauber driver managed to break into the top 10 for the first time, outqualifying his more experienced teammate in the progress. Vettel's dominance in the first two qualifying sessions seemed to be continued in the final shootout, as he blasted into the 1:42's, a full seven tenths faster than his nearest rivals. So convinced was the German that he had done enough, he decided not to return to the track, instead becoming a spectator. However, he would have been a nervous onlooker as Nico Rosberg set the fastest first sector on his final lap. As the Mercedes passed the line, Vettel managed a sigh of relief, as Rosberg could only get within a tenth of his initial time.

                                That one tenth would prove pivotal in the run to the first corner. Unusually, the Red Bull was beaten off the line by Rosberg, who powered off the line. Having passed Vettel before the first corner, the Mercedes ran wide into turn 2, allowing Vettel to sneak back up the inside to get the lead back. Behind, the big winner was, once again, Fernando Alonso, who went from 7th to 3rd in the space of two corners. Steering clear of any danger, the Spaniard went all the way around the outside of two rows to claim the final podium spot. In fact, the entire field managed to avoid contact on the opening lap, showing incredible driving accuracy. Once he had maintained his lead, Sebastian Vettel quickly made the break, scampering away from Rosberg. By the time the Mercedes made his first pit stop, Vettel was over 7.5 seconds clear. As the race ran on, it became more and more obvious that Vettel was strolling to a comfortable victory, so attention turned to the chasing pack behind. After the first stops, Hamilton and Grosjean began reeling in Mark Webber quite quickly, with the Australian on older tyres. Just as it looked that the result was inevitable, Daniel Ricciardo made an uncharacteristic error, locking up both front tyres and sliding into the barriers. This brought out the safety car, eradicating Vettel's lead and throwing the result back into the air.

                                   This lasted next to no time however, as no sooner had the safety car pitted then Vettel made the break once again. With one Red Bull scampering away, the attention turned to the other. Aussie Mark Webber had been battling with Hamilton and Grosjean since the early laps, and this seemed set to be an ongoing rivalry. However, his cause was aided by the sight of Grosjean's engine giving in on lap 38. When the pair then made their final stops, they fell back behind the majority of the chasing pack, meaning a full-throttle race to the finish. It seemed to be a tactical decision that worked, as the Aussie managed to perform the undercut on Nico Rosberg, to take an effective 3rd place. However, this was swiftly wiped away by Raikkonen's ability to perform the same undercut. With both Alonso, who was trying to one stop, and Vettel way up the road, the final podium spot was the only thing up for grabs at this point. With both McLarens one stopping, there were mobile chicanes that needed passing for those behind. However, this often became easier said than done, as Hamilton and Rosberg almost collected one another on several occasions when trying to pass Perez.

                                      Despite chasing Raikkonen down to try and claim the final podium spot, Webber began to struggle massively into the final couple of laps, losing four seconds a lap to the Mercedeses behind. He was eventually passed by both, before being forced to retire with a lack of fuel, and a sick engine, eventually setting fire to itself on the final lap. It is just the latest in a long list of misfortune for the Aussie, who will be glad to leave the sport at this rate! In contrast, his teammate Vettel came home to win the race with ease, leading by over 30 seconds from Fernando Alonso. However, for both, the day ended badly. For Webber, having accepted a lift from Fernando Alonso, he was penalised with a 10 place penalty at the next race in Korea, for three reprimands in a season. For Vettel, despite his dominant victory, almost guaranteeing the title, he was roundly booed on the podium. Whilst this was not the first time (it happened at Monza), the first time could easily be explained as being deep Ferrari territory. Singapore is not. To boo any racer is unacceptable, especially when they have performed so admirably this season. Whilst it could be argued that F1 is getting boring, as the German is sweeping everything and everyone aside, this is not justification for booing someone. I do not recall Schumacher being booed wherever he went, or Senna. I think that we have to credit Red Bull for making a terrific car, and Vettel for driving it so well.

                                     As for the title: it looks over. 60 points is a lot to recoup out of 150. We would need to see a few Vettel non-finishes for this to be anything other than a Red Bull and Vettel success. I simply hope that we do see a few more interesting and close races over the next few weeks, otherwise F1 will begin to become a touch tedious and repetitive. Since the change to the tyres Red Bull have seemed best prepared to deal with the rule changes and the tyres, giving them an inherent advantage. Next season, hopefully we will see a slightly different story, getting us back to the start of the season, where any one of 6 or 7 cars could win races.