PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Liverpool

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City

Last season
A Europa League final cannot be considered a disappointment when it comes to the opening season of Jurgen Klopp, but a lot will rest on the German's ability to improve the club's league form. Since the near-title winning team of 2014, Liverpool have been on a decline, costing Brendan Rodgers his job. Last year was no different, with the Reds managing only an 8th place finish, despite an upturn since Klopp's appointment.

Backroom setup
Jurgen Klopp takes charge of his first full Premier League season, following huge success in the German league with Borussia Dortmund. He, as well as his coaches, will be looking to stamp his style on the squad, as well as making additions that work within his personal style.

Pre-season
2016/17 started with a hugely successful tour of the UK, with the Reds winning all four of their pre-season games without conceding a goal. While the argument could certainly be made that the quality of their opposition is questionable, it would no doubt have provided some much-needed confidence ahead of their appearance in the International Champions Cup. Wins against Tranmere Rovers (1-0), Fleetwood Town (5-0), Wigan Athletic (2-0) and Huddersfield Town (2-0) will have been pleasing for  Klopp, as well as the form of Danny Ings and Roberto Firmino, with two goals each.

The real challenge began with the later matches, with three games in their seven day stay in the United States. This began with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in a tetchy match, which saw a red card for Cesc Fabregas after a horror tackle on new signing Ragnar Klavan. However, the Reds bounced back with a comfortable 2-0 win over AC Milan, with goals from Origi and Firmino, before finishing with a disappointing 2-1 defeat to AS Roma.

However, Liverpool's best performance came in their penultimate pre-season game, as Barcelona visited Wembley Stadium to take on the Reds. However, the Catalans will have left the UK with their tails firmly between their legs, as Liverpool ran riot to win 4-0, setting them up perfectly for their opening league game. While a completely changed 11 lost by the same scoreline to Mainz 24 hours later, I don't see this being a significant bump to their momentum.

Squad and signings
It's already been a busy summer for Jurgen Klopp, as he looks to stamp his authority on his Liverpool squad. More than £65m has already been spent, with big-money moves for Premier League stars Sadio Mane (£34m) and Georgina Wijnaldum (£25m) from Southampton and Newcastle respectively, while Klopp has also raided the Bundesliga for cheaper buys. Centre-back from Klavan was bought from Augsburg for £4.2m, while Liverpool's goalkeeping options have been expanded with the signings of Loris Karius from Mainz for £4.7m and Alex Manninger for free from Augsburg. Finally, Joel Matip was also brought in from the Bundesliga on a free to complete the defensive lineup.

They have been able to recoup nearly £50m through the sale of a number of their young stars. In particular, Bournemouth shelled out a combined £21m for Jordon Ibe and Brad Smith, while Jerome Sinclair exited for Watford in a £4m deal. On top of that, both Joe Allen and Martin Skrtel were deemed surplus to requirements at Anfield, drawing valuations of £13m and £5m respectively.

Tactics
Pass and move is what it's going to be about this year, as Klopp will look to exploit the ability and vision of his midfield players, including James Milner, Phillipe Coutinho Wijnaldum, Henderson and Mane. Expect the Reds to also use width to get Mane and Daniel Sturridge in behind, and Christian Benteke may find himself able to gather a few more goals from crosses.

Predictions

While Liverpool have the manager to challenge the upper echelons of the division, they do not yet have the squad capable, in my opinion. Their biggest signings have been of mid-table players, paying huge sums, which would seem to indicate their ambitions for this year. They certainly have the potential for the coming years, but this may be yet another 'development' season for the Reds. I do still think they will beat their Merseyside rivals.

Final position: 6th

Chelsea: How The Mighty Have Fallen

The worst title defence in the history of the Premier League. After yesterday's defeat at home to Liverpool, Chelsea have registered an embarrassing return of just 11 points after eleven first team matches, with just three wins, six defeats and 22 goals conceded. To put it in perspective, this is almost identical to the disastrous defence of Blackburn Rovers following their one and only title in 1995, and is six points worse than the ill-fated attempt by David Moyes after the Sir Alex Ferguson era at Manchester United.

What makes this current title defence most surprising is that this has not come after a shock title win or change in management. In fact, next to nothing has changed. The side that claimed the league just a few short months ago is now floundering just above the relegation zone, and it's not like they can blame injuries either. Though they have missed Thibaut Courtois for the majority of the season so far, the eleven that were so successful in the last season remain largely ever-present.

What it simply comes down to is the fact that many of the top players from last year have struggled to hit the heights that they achieved in that title winning side. If we take the lynchpins of that side, namely John Terry, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, we can clearly see in each case, the statistics are no longer in their favour when compared to many of their rivals.

Take the stoic centre half. A Chelsea legend that has taken his side through tough times seemingly single-handedly in the past, and has been a consistent performer and rock for Jose Mourinho in both his spells at the club. Last year was widely considered the Englishman's best season for some time, with the centre back's organisation enabling the team to keep 17 clean sheets, at a ratio of almost one every two games. He also scored five goals from 18 shots - the second best return of his career. In comparison, in the first 11 games of this season, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet, with Terry yet to open his personal account. He has also come under considerable criticism, being sent off at West Brom and dropped to the bench for the crunch game with Manchester City.

Similarly, Eden Hazard has struggled to make the impact he had last season. Having comprehensively won the Barclays Premier League Player of the Year Award last year, he has been almost anonymous this season. Though his chances created statistics and assists are not bad when compared to last season (29 chances created in 11 games this season/ 99 created in total last year), he does not seem to quote have the same aura around him that saw him glide past players like they weren't even there. His substitution against Liverpool yesterday came as no surprise, as up until that point I don't think I had heard his name uttered by the commentary team.

The difference between statistics for both Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa is even more stark. The power pair last year were a contributing factor to a huge percentage of Chelsea goals last year, with Fabregas hailed as a pass master for his 18 assists and Costa ranked among the top strikers in the world scoring 20 goals. How times have changed. This season, Fabregas has set up just one goal, while Costa is a tenth of the way to last year's goals total, with almost a third of the season gone.

It's certainly no secret that this has had a dramatic impact on the pressure on the shoulders of Jose Mourinho. And we have already seen how he tends to overhype. In a post last year, I looked at Jose's growing vendetta with both the English media and Premier League referees, and suggested that perhaps this was simply another of the Portuguese manager's mind-games. However, having seen the ongoing behaviour and anger of the Chelsea man, I'm not quite so sure he's as in-control as he appeared last year. He is clearly feeling the pressure, and would rather apportion blame everywhere but with himself, and referees are certainly an easy target.

One thing I still can't wrap my brain around is why. How is it that so many of not just Chelsea's top men, but the supporting cast like Matic, Ivanovic, Oscar and Azpilicueta, all of whom were outstanding in the title win, can perform so poorly all at the same time. An off game or two is to be expected, but it's getting on towards the halfway point, and I honestly cannot remember a game where Chelsea have looked like themselves.

The first explanation that I have read is from Fabio Capello. The former England and Real Madrid coach laid the accusation that Jose Mourinho's style of management burns players out, keeping them at optimal levels for a season or 18 months, but then sees performances fall off a cliff. While that would accurately explain the Portuguese's experience on this occasion, in addition to his times at Inter Milan and Real Madrid, it would not cover the initial period spent in London. Successive titles, the second more emphatic than the first, would certainly call the theory into question. Further, the individuals at the heart of that Chelsea title success remained effective for the club for years to come - look at Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba.

In addition, there have been a lot of talks in the papers recently about rifts in the dressing room. Now, while I'm willing to take such accusations with a pinch of salt, there is normally no smoke without fire, and it does appear during the games like many of the players aren't on the same wavelength. How much of that is just the players trying to force the issue, and how much is a genuine discord is difficult to say, but it is certainly a theory that cannot be ruled out.

My analysis of this adds a rather ironic twist. Jose Mourinho's attitude that the world is against him, blaming referees, the media and even his own doctors for his shortcomings may well have been a mind-game, but has now fostered an environment at Chelsea that is incredibly demoralising. Believing that people are against you can have a dramatic impact on confidence and motivation, and could certainly explain the ongoing issues. Further to this, the treatment of Eva Carneiro will undoubtedly have underlined the dictatorial regime currently in operation at the London club, and will inevitably have players and staff looking nervously over their shoulders. This tends to result in people taking fewer risks, playing it safe and therefore not achieving their potential - sound familiar?

While Jose Mourinho has been given the green light by Roman Abramovic, it is slowly but surely moving to a shade of amber. Based on the last three months, he needs to grow up, accept that bad luck and bad decisions happen, and get on with motivating his players and stop attempting to control the actions of officials. Who does he think he is, Sir Alex Ferguson?

However, Chelsea have more than enough quality to get themselves out of their current predicament, and it was fitting that it was Jurgen Klopp, who experienced the exact same thing with Dortmund last year, who visited Stamford Bridge yesterday. I'm going for a sixth place finish now for Chelsea, but they need to seriously rethink their approach and pull together to achieve even that.

Summer Transfer Window Series: My Predictions

As the footballing merry-go-round begins to kick into gear for another year, English football clubs have never been in as strong a position to spend money. With the new £5bn football rights deal set to take effect from next year, clubs know that their revenues are going to be boosted come next summer. As a result, many can spend without fear of additional UEFA penalties thanks to the controversial Financial Fair Play regulations. With each of last season's top four expected to empty their bank accounts in the coming months, this summer is going to be interesting.

But what deals can we expect? Much has been talked about already, but as with most transfer windows, not many of the deals proposed will actually go ahead. So, as a starter to my new transfer window series, I thought I'd take a look at the 20 Premier League sides for next season, speculating what deals I see them doing and how much the Premier League is likely to spend.

Arsenal

In: Arguably the Premier League's strongest midfield, Arsenal still need to plug the gaps that they seem to have had for years - in attack, in defence and in goal. While a lot of names have been thrown around, I see the following deals happening (assuming they don't get a ban for the Calum Chambers affair): Petr Cech (Chelsea, £10m), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, £24m), Paulo Dybala (Palermo, £28m), Daniele Rugani (Juventus, £15m) - but I'm still not sure this will be enough to force them towards the title.

Out: I'm not expecting significant exits, with Jack Wilshere denying a move to Manchester City. The core of the squad will remain the same, with only a couple of exits: Abou Diaby (Released, £0), Wojciech Szczesny (Fiorentina, £6m), Mikel Arteta (Everton, £5m), Lukas Podolski (Galatasaray, £1.8m)

Aston Villa

In: Not expected to be one of the more active clubs, but getting Christian Benteke nailed down to a long contract would be just as important as a new £30m transfer. I think it's all about bolstering the squad, though they could do with a creative midfielder after the loss of Tom Cleverley to Everton. Realistic targets? Micah Richards (Manchester City, £0), Scott Sinclair (Manchester City, £3.5m), Leroy Fer (QPR, £5m), Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik (Rennes, £5m)

Out: If they can hang onto Benteke, that will be critical, but I'm afraid they're likely to lose another couple of key members of their team - Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph, who has a ludicrously low buyout clause. In order to secure Kieran Trippier, Matt Lowton will be used as a makeweight. Full list: Ron Vlaar (Released, £0), Tom Cleverley (End of loan, Everton), Matt Lowton (Burnley, £1.5m), Joe Cole (Bournemouth, £0), Libor Kozak (Sparta Prague, £3m), Fabian Delph (Manchester City, £8m)

Bournemouth

In: Eddie Howe's side is not blessed with the unlimited spending power that many of the Premier League has, so it may well come down to smart spending rather than going all out for huge names. Realistically, it could be a difficult task to attract the big names, so here are a few suggestions: Tomas Kalas (Chelsea, Loan), Karim Rekik (Manchester City, Loan), Joe Cole (Aston Villa, £0), Patrick Bamford (Chelsea, Loan), Christian Atsu (Chelsea, Loan), Tyrone Mings (Ipswich, £8m), Sylvain Distin (Everton, £0)

Out: I don't think there will be many, if any, significant changes to the squad that was promoted in May. I also don't know the squad well enough to be able to accurately predict the deadweight.

Crystal Palace

In: Certainly not wingers. In Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha, they have a pair capable of scaring any defence in the country, with Jason Puncheon just to add insult to injury. However, a more creative central midfielder and striker may be required, along with a centre back, as Alan Pardew looks to build upon his excellent season: Johnny Heitinga (Hertha Berlin, £2.5m), Mauricio (Lazio, £5m), Abou Diaby (Arsenal, £0), Vedad Ibisevic (VfB Stuttgart, £7.5m),

Out: In order to accommodate the new signings, some outgoings may be required. Surplus to requirements may be: Adrian Mariappa, Jordon Mutch (Derby, £3m), Jimmy Kebe, Andrew Johnson and Marouane Chamakh.

Chelsea

In: You may think it could not get any better, but Jose Mourinho is not a naive man. He will know that in order to maintain his advantage over the rest of the field, strengthening is required. Defensively, they could do with another centre-back and defensive midfielder as cover for John Terry and Nemanja Matic, while an additional striker could add further strength in depth. As a result, there could be some seriously big signings and money thrown around. In my opinion: Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, loan), Marquinhos (PSG, £25m), Sven Bender (Borussia Dortmund, £15m), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, £8m)

Out: The squad from last year performed so well, I'd be surprised if there were many changes, but I do see a couple of the marginalised players leaving, most notably Petr Cech: Petr Cech (Arsenal, £11m), John Obi Mikel (Inter Milan, £5m), Felipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, £7.5m), Didier Drogba (Free agent)

Everton

In: After a slightly disappointing season last time around, Roberto Martinez will be looking to propel the Blues back into the European spots. However, as with many seasons in the past, I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the way of funds incoming from Bill Kenwright. Therefore, a few bargain buys may be the lot for the Goodison Park faithful to cheer, with a defender and winger necessary: Tom Cleverley (Manchester United, £0), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur, £7.5m), Virgil van Dijk (Celtic, £10m), Josip Drmic (Bayer Leverkusen, £6m)

Out: It's just as important for Everton to sign new talent as it is to keep their current stars. On the whole, I think they will do, however, there may well be a couple of shocks to leave: Bryan Oviedo, Christian Atsu, Arouna Kone and Seamus Coleman may well see the exit this summer, with the latter adding to Manchester City's domestic quota.

Leicester

In: Having produced a remarkable escape to survive in the Premier League last season, Nigel Pearson will be looking to cement Leicester's place in the top flight by navigating the often awkward second season syndrome. His chairman has already invested heavily in the squad, and there is no reason why we won't see something similar this summer. They have shown they can score goals, but until the end of the year, they couldn't keep them out. So defensive and midfield strength will be a priority, especially if Esteban Cambiasso departs: Michael Dawson (Hull City, £2m), Johan Djourou (Hamburg, £4m), Etienne Capoue (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Serey Die (VfB Stuttgart, £6m), Christian Fuchs (Schalke, £0), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz, £5m)

Out: There may be a small clearing of the books, as I can imagine the wage bill is quite considerable at present. In my opinion, these are the ones I'd expect to see leave: Esteban Cambiasso, Danny Simpson, Paul Konchesky, Matthew Upson, Dean Hammond, Anthony Knockaert, Chris Wood.

Liverpool

In: Think this could be an interesting transfer window for Liverpool. They successfully wasted the majority of the money they received from the sale of Luis Suarez last summer, meaning that the club failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. That will inevitably have an impact on the level of player they are able to acquire, but I still think another striker and defensive midfielder is definitely required. My guess? Danny Ings (Burnley, £7m), Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma, £22m), Nigel de Jong (AC Milan, £15m), Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim, £29m), Adam Bogdan (Bolton, £0), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, £12.5m)

Out: Not many changes to the Liverpool side expected (Steven Gerrard excluded), but one of the main transfer sagas of the summer is set to be the future of Raheem Sterling. I expect he'll be at Manchester City next season, but only time will tell: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, £45m), Kolo Toure, Steven Gerrard (Los Angeles Galaxy), Oussama Assaidi, Rickie Lambert (Norwich City), Fabio Borini, Sebastien Coates (both Sunderland).

Man City

In: They're probably going to be the most active of any club in the transfer market this summer, as the team undergoes a major rebuilding process. I already wrote a full post on the various incomings and outgoings at my club, so for the full detail, take a look here. However, my thoughts have evolved slightly since that moment, so I'll now outline my choices as they stand: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, £45m), Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg, £30m), Seamus Coleman (Everton, £10m), Paul Pogba (Juventus, £50m), Fabian Delph (Aston Villa, £8m)

Out: Again, significant changes to the current playing staff are expected, though not the Yaya Toure exit that many tipped - here's my predictions: Alvaro Negredo (Valencia, £26m), Stevan Jovetic (Juventus, £15m), Jesus Navas (Sevilla, £10m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £15m), James Milner (Liverpool, £0), Frank Lampard (Loan Ends, New York City), Fernando (Porto, £8m). It does provide them with a large pot to dip into, though!

Man Utd

In: After an unprecedented spending spree last year, which led them to the Champions League last year (my dig being that United couldn't even buy the title, something the Trafford club have always accused City of doing!), we've been told that Louis van Gaal has again been given a large war chest this summer. Though huge name signings have been linked (see Sergio Ramos and Bastian Schweinsteiger, I simply don't see it. However, a number of areas that need improvement, so I think we'll see the following signings: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur, £15m), Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven, £31m), Kevin Strootman (AS Roma, £25m), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, £20m), Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton, £24m)

Out: In order to afford these, and remain within the Financial Fair Play regulations, I sense that some will have to be sold. With David de Gea's proposed move set to be one of the long-running transfer sagas of the summer, it will be interesting to see how much will be raised: David de Gea (Real Madrid, £20m), Robin van Persie (Juventus, £10m), Tom Cleverley (Everton, Released), Nani (Sporting, £5m).

Newcastle

In: After such an abomination of a season last time around, naturally speculation around incomings is rife. Such was their failure last season, it's almost difficult to identify just a couple of positions to improve, but I'll give it a go. I certainly think that we'll see a number of incomings, particularly with the pressure on Ashley to spend, so here's my list: Charlie Austin (QPR, £15m), Andreas Beck (Hoffenheim, £6m), Jason Denayer (Manchester City, Loan), Yevhen Konoplyanka (Dnipro, £0).

Out: We've already heard the brutal way in which John Carver dealt out bad news to both Jonas Gutierrez and Ryan Taylor on a phone call, but who else may be headed for the exit door? In my opinion, Yoann Gouffran and Emanuel Riviere will head back to France, while Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa will bring in a little money for a move to Roma.

Norwich

In: The Premier League new boys are set to spend this summer, though seemingly not too significantly. Having seen the example set by Burnley last season, I think Norwich will remain with the core side that brought them up last time around, as many already have significant Premier League experience. However, investment is always required, and here is who I see them signing: Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom, £0), Rudy Gestede (Blackburn, £7m), Graham Dorrans (West Brom, £2.5m), Robbie Brady (Hull City, £5m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £2m)

Out: It's simply a case of getting rid of the deadwood at the Canaries this summer, with many of the side from last year now either too old or surplus to requirements: Luciano Becchio, Javier Garrido and Carlos Cuellar all fit within this bracket.

Southampton

In: As with last year, there are going to be a lot of incomings and outgoings at the Saints, particularly after such an impressive opening year for Ronald Koeman. In my mind, there will be more money to spend, which will lead to a number of big (ish) deals: Jordy Clasie (Feyenoord, £10m), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, £10m), Juanmi (Malaga, £5m), Idrissa Gueye (Lille, £7m), Toby Alderweireld (Ajax, £12m)

Out: So, how are Southampton going to afford this outlay? Unlike last season, there isn't going to be a significant clear out, however there is a trend similar to last year. Nathaniel Clyne is Liverpool bound for £12.5m, joining ex-Saints Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana at Anfield. Morgan Schneiderlin also seems to be on the way out, for a proposed fee of around £24m. Other than that, it seems unlikely that much will change, as Koeman will not want a disruption akin to last year, even though it ended well.

Stoke

In: Mark Hughes is well versed in wheeler-dealing, having done it so successfully during his years at Blackburn. He has already made a couple of early signings, and these are the players I expect to see at the Britannia next year: Joselu (Hannover, £5.8m), Jakob Haugaard (Midtylland, £2m), Victor Moses (£3m), Sergi Roberto (Barcelona, £8m), Zakaria Bakkali (£5m), Tom Heaton (Burnley, £3m).

Out: With three releases already confirmed (Wilson Palacios, Thomas Sorensen, Andy Wilkinson), this season seems set to centre around the proposed sale of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea. I think it will happen, with Victor Moses going the other way (either as part of the deal or separately). Other than that, I feel Stoke's lineup will remain vastly similar.

Sunderland

In: Under new leadership, Sunderland may well find themselves spending reasonably big this summer, as Dick Advocaat continues to impress his will upon the team. In my opinion, these are the signings I expect them to make: Sebastien Coates (Liverpool, £4m), Fabio Borini (Liverpool, £8m), Stuart Downing (West Ham, £7m), Georgio Wijnaldum (PSV Eindhoven, £12m), Adam Matthews (Celtic, £2m)

Out: I'm not expecting to see significant exits, with possibly just Liam Bridcutt or Steven Fletcher the only first team players to leave. However, this puts significant pressure on Advocaat, as he will have spend a lot for very little return, and they will need to improve on the relegation battle they delivered last year.

Swansea

In: Garry Monk, after the £28m sale of Wilfried Bony in January, has money to spend this summer, and he's already been splashing the cash. As well as up front, strength in depth when it comes to defence is critical, and I'm expecting to see the following deals: Andre Ayew (Marseille, £0), Franck Tabanou (St Etienne, £3.5m), Eder (Braga, £5m), Lukasz Nordfeldt (Heerenveen, £1m), Aleksandar Mitrovic (£12m)

Out: Put quite simply, this may well be a summer for entries than exits, with perhaps Jazz Richards the only first team player to leave permanently. Outside of that, I see lots of loans for the younger Swans, in the attempt to continue the tradition of strong youngsters coming through the ranks at Swansea.

Tottenham

In: A difficult one. Having spent big a couple of years ago, with little success, I foresee a summer of consolidation for Spurs, predominantly as many of the big targets have either already gone or will only be willing to move to a Champions League football. However, there may be some movement for Spurs to enjoy: Delle Alli (MK Dons, £5m), Kieran Trippier (Bournemouth, £2.5m), Sebastian Rondon (Zenit St Petersburg, £20m), Florian Thauvin (Marseille, £10m), Saido Berahino (West Brom, £10m).

Out: A few, particularly those during Andre Villas-Boas's reign. Big names like Paulinho and Roberto Soldado seem likely to exit to Guangzhou Evergrande and Galatasaray respectively, but will that be the end? Harry Kane is linked in a massive money move to Manchester United, but I don't think that's likely. Outside of that, I think Aaron Lennon will leave, along with Emmanuel Adebayor, but it will once again be another season of incomings outstripping outgoings.

Watford

In: Another promoted club, another side that doesn't have significant amounts to spend. With a record £7m signing already on its way in the form of Genoa's Diego Perrotti, the kitty may just be empty. In addition to this, the following deals may be available: Sebastien Prodl (Werder Bremen, £0), Marco Motta (Juventus, £0), Jano Ananidze (Spartak Moscow, £4m), Joel Campbell (Arsenal, £6m), Bakary Sako (Wolves, £2.5m)

Out: Keeping hold of Troy Deeney may well prove to be the biggest challenge for the Hornets this summer, but I actually think they will achieve it. They are not in a position to need to sell, and as with many of their relegation rivals, I genuinely believe that they will spend more than they receive. I'm not well-versed enough with the Watford squad to know the relevant exits, but I can't imagine they'll get much for them.

West Brom

In: Having stabilised in the Premier League, far from their trademark "boing-boing" reputation, West Brom will be next looking to move their way up the table, emulating the recent success of Stoke City or Swansea. With this in mind, here are my transfer targets: Matt Phillips (QPR, £5m), James McClean (Wigan, £1.5m), Callum McManaman (Wigan, £4.5m), Kevin-Prince Boateng (Schalke, £8m), George Friend (Middlesbrough, £2.5m)

Out: We've already seen a couple of exits from the Baggies this summer, with both Youssouf Mulumbu and Graham Dorrans on their way to Norwich. Outside of them, Saido Berahino seems set for a move to Tottenham, though I'm not certain that the fee will be quite as inflated as West Brom would like. However, Tony Pulis runs a tight ship, and I'd be very surprised if we saw an exodus from The Hawthorns.

West Ham

In: New manager, exciting new stadium on the way, and a host of new signings expected for the Hammers. Slaven Bilic's team were the first to make a move worth in excess of £10m, with the signings of Dimitri Payet from Marseille, but who else could be on their way to East London? Alex Song (Barcelona, Loan), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal, £3.5m), Nene (Free agent), Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham Hotspur, £5m), Angelo Ogbonna (Juventus, £12m)

Out: No major outgoings, with Stuart Downing expected to be the most high profile. With Bilic willing to give his players an opportunity to prove themselves in the early goings, I'd be surprised if much in the way of exits happen - maybe the likes of Joey O'Brien, Carlton Cole or Guy Demel may be seen as surplus to requirements.

Total Spend (where all sales between Premier League teams are counted as spend): £726.6m

Total Income: £266.3m

Totaliser for Summer Window: £992.9m

2015/2016 Premier League Fixtures Announced: Invading The Continent (Champions League)

With the announcement of the Premier League fixtures, the rumour mills spins into overdrive about who is favourite for the big prizes - the title, the Champions League, and avoiding relegation. In my post yesterday, I outlined my opinion on who I believe is currently favourites for the Premier League title, based solely on the fixtures in the opening five games, the busy Christmas period, and the final five. This time, it's the turn of those sides competing for a place in the Champions League, namely Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton.

So, kicking off with the opening five fixtures of the new season, we see a clear winner. Southampton, after such an impressive opening to last season, have the opportunity to do the same, with a rather fortuitous run of fixtures to start this year. Beginning away at Newcastle to start Steve McClaren's reign at St James's Park, they then host Everton. However, after that potentially tricky opening couple of games, we see two games against newly promoted sides - away at Watford and at home to Norwich - before ending their first five with a trip to West Brom.

Compare that to the fixtures of their rivals. Liverpool start with a horrible trip to Stoke (remember the 6-1 mauling last year), before a home game against Bournemouth. They then face two of the title rivals in the next three games, with trips to Arsenal and Manchester United punctuated by a home game against West Ham. Meanwhile, Tottenham begin their season with a trip to Manchester United, before hosting Stoke. They then travel to Leicester, welcome Everton and round it off with a visit to the North East for a game against Sunderland. Therefore, I'd certainly put the difficulty of the opening fixtures in this order: Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton.

Moving onto the busy Christmas period, we can see that roles are almost completely reversed. Southampton have a horrible set of fixtures, facing a tough trip to Crystal Palace before home games against both North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. They then have another difficult trip to West Ham before finishing with Norwich away. In comparison, Liverpool have home ties against West Brom and Leicester, as well as winnable games away at Watford, Sunderland and West Ham. Spurs also have some good fixtures starting at home to Newcastle, before the crunch tie against Southampton. A double set of games against promoted sides follow, at home to Norwich and away to Watford, before a tricky tie away at Everton. So I'd put these fixtures in this order: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.

So with a complete reversal of the first five in the Christmas period, it all comes down to the final five for me to select my favourite for the Champions League spot. Here, Liverpool again get the advantage. Their final five starts with a trip to Bournemouth, before hosting Newcastle, travelling to Swansea and entertaining Watford. The final day could be tricky, with a trip to West Brom, but these are all eminently winnable games.

So if Liverpool are favourites, who's got an uphill task? Spurs start with a trip to Stoke and a visit from West Brom, but the following couple are horrible - away at Chelsea and a crunch tie against Southampton. They then finish with a trip to Newcastle, which could see the race come down to the wire. Meanwhile, Southampton have four tricky fixtures out of five, with visits to Everton and Aston Villa followed up by a home tie against Manchester City. The possibly pivotal fixture against Spurs comes next, before they finish the season at home to Crystal Palace. In this crucial final five, the difficulty ratings are as follows: Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool.

It's worth bearing in mind that this is all presuming that one of last season's big four fail to make the grade this year, otherwise this talk is entirely academic. We could end up arguing over the Europa League places! With this in mind, I'm saying that the order that I expect based on the fixtures alone is Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton, but this will not necessarily be the most interesting battle this season.

Do Foreign Owners Make Leeds United?

My dad has been a Leeds United fan from an early age, and has probably been against foreign ownership of football clubs since then. It would therefore be of great irritation to him to see his favourite club in its current predicament. After years under the ownership of the 'poisoned dwarf' (my dad's words, not mine) Ken Bates, the entrance of Massimo Cellino, though eccentric, was surely a step in the right direction, right? Well, just 12 months after his acquisition of the club, it seems that is wrong. A year of pandemonium and chaos has followed, seemingly reinforcing my dad's argument regarding foreign owners.

It's worth noting that this is not the only case of foreign owners causing a stir. This has been to varying levels, but some of the country's largest clubs have fallen foul of owners that prioritise the business over the football. Most high profile of these are the two most successful clubs in this country's history: Liverpool and Manchester United.

Chronologically, it was the reds from (not quite) Manchester that were the subject of the first takeover bid. Having been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 1990, Malcolm Glazer had built up his share of the company between 2003 and 2005, before announcing a formal takeover in the May of the latter year. In total, the acquisition cost around £800m, though this only tells half of the story.

Before the ink had dried on the deal, and before the supporters could get excited about potential financial investment, we worked out how the deal had been financed, and more worryingly, who was carrying the burden. All loans had been secured against the assets of the club, meaning that the financial stability of the club was put in serious danger. In addition, interest payments of up to £60m annually would be owed, piling more and more on top of the club. Like Cellino, Glazer seemed only interested in protecting his own investment, rather than the fortunes of the team and the fans.

Similarly, Liverpool struggled with new American owners. Tom Hicks and George Gillette, who both had histories with sports clubs in the States, decided to take a controlling stake in Liverpool at the beginning of 2007, valuing the business at £218.9m. In a turbulent three years, the pair fell so heavily out of favour due to a lack of incoming transfer activity and a failure to deliver the new stadium that they were called "asset strippers" in Parliament and we eventually willing to take a £144m loss on the club on its 2010 sale. Court cases and legal disputes have rumbled on since, so it seems unlikely that we have heard the end of this story yet.

However, while the heritage of these two clubs has enabled them to manage their losses and survive, there are some clubs that do not have the resources. The most obvious example of this is Portsmouth. A Premier League side, the club won the 2008 FA Cup to secure the unlikeliest of places in Europe for the following season. With new investment from Sulaiman al Fahim, it seemed as though Portsmouth would be in good hands to push on up the table. However, just five years later, the side would have a series of foreign owners, all of whom would receive similar "asset-stripper" descriptions as Hicks and Gillette, leaving the club in the lowest tier of league football and feeling lucky just to be in existence.

However, before I get accused of being xenophobic, there are foreign owners that have progressed their clubs. In recent years, new footballing superpowers have been created by overseas wealth, with Chelsea and Manchester City the most high profile instances.

Chelsea, following years of being the nearly men in terms of achieving Champions League football, were acquired in June 2003 by a relatively unknown oil tycoon, Roman Abramovich. The Russian shelled out hundreds of millions of pounds on players in the early years, bringing titles in successive years in 2005 and 2006 - the club's first in 50 years. Over the next eight years, the club has gone from strength to strength, winning a further one Premier League crown, while adding four FA Cups, three League Cups, a Europa League and the one Abramovich was after, the Champions League.

More recently, my club, Manchester City were thrust into the financial limelight. Following the turbulent reign of Thaksin Shinawatra, the Abu Dhabi United group was found to take the club forward, headed by Sheikh Mansoor. The enormous wealth of the group enabled the Blues to make the seismic transfer of Robinho on the final day of the 2009 summer transfer window, before letting the cash flow freely to acquire some of the most high profile players in the world. To date, this has resulted in two Premier League titles in three years, as well as an FA Cup and a League Cup, but European success has eluded them. As a result, it seems likely that their investors are in it for the long haul.

As well as this, English people can make just as appalling owners of football clubs. Take Mike Ashley for example. If ruining the ambitions of historic club wasn't enough, he's managed two! Having spent three years at university in Newcastle, I'm well aware of how important the club is to the city and how deep the desire for success is from the fans. Never before have I seen the mood of an entire city affected by the result on Saturday, and it is a shame to see the lifeless shell that this side has become under Mike Ashley's leadership. Making a profit is one thing, and with the FFP regulations in full swing, I understand the need to balance the books, but this business sense has to be married to a progress mentality. Sadly, this is something that the Geordies can quite rightly level at Ashley, and he seems unlikely to change this in the near future.

So it appears that the old locally owned football club system has well and truly gone. It's incredible to think that there was a time when Liverpool and Everton were both owned by the same family, who ran the clubs completely independently (and successfully I might add) during the 70s and 80s. Could you imagine those two clubs operating that way in the current system? Or any two clubs - not even those so closely linked? No. As football has become increasingly commercialised, particularly in the UK (for more details of this, check out my blog on the TV rights and English clubs' struggles in Europe), club owners are focusing their energies on making money from their ventures, and as a result, the day to day business is ever-more time consuming. Attempting to take on one club is difficult enough, so two would be near impossible.

So how do we ensure that the right people take over our historic clubs, meaning that assets are not stripped, or worse, the soul of the club is damaged?

Let's have a look at our current system - the 'Fit and Proper Person' test. Introduced in 2004 to prevent corrupt or unsuitable directors of football clubs, the test is performed on any individual that acquires in excess of 30 per cent of a club. In short, the following are considered 'disqualifying events' for owning a Premier League club:

• They have power or influence over another Football League club
• They become prohibited by law from becoming a director (and believe me, there are a lot of offences)
• They are filing for bankruptcy
• They have been a director of a club while it has suffered two or more unconnected events of insolvency
• They have been a director of two or more clubs of which, while they have been a director, has suffered an event of insolvency

However, after eleven years, and numerous examples of (in mine and my dad's opinions) 'unfit directors', we can certainly say that it has not been a rousing success. What is even more worrying is that unlike other legislation, it doesn't learn from its mistakes. I accept that nothing will be perfect the first time around, but I would expect much more than watching the same situations unfold time after time. Surely, the only way of preventing unfit owners is by tightening the regulations, placing them and their intentions for the club under scrutiny.

So, possible additions to the regulations? Setting out a five year plan for the club, which must be adhered to (as much as is humanly possible), a fan vote that, though it does not have the mandate to remove any owner directly, could cause the FA to place the owner on report. Any owner placed on this report is unable to purchase any further clubs in the future - in simple terms, one strike and you're out! Though these measures may seem excessive, it is perhaps the only way to prevent the likes of Glazer, Hicks, Gillette, Ashley and Cellino getting their way, and sucking the life from some of our most historic sporting institutions.

The Premier League and Europe: A Subconscious Uncoupling?

And so, a devastating fortnight for English clubs in Europe draws to a close. For the second time in three years, we have no representative in the Champions League beyond the last 16. Even more worryingly, it's the fourth time in five seasons that no English side has made it to the quarters of the Europa League. And never before have both happened in conjunction. So what has gone wrong? How has a league extolled for its pace and power, ranked as one of the top two leagues in the world, deteriorated when it comes to the European competitions?

However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.

Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.

So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?

The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.

What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?

The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool,  both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?

Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.

Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.

In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.

In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.

The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.

English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.

Half Time Report: Who'll Be Shopping In The January Sales?

With the Premier League season in the balance for each of the 20 teams involved, January represents an excellent opportunity for sides to supplement their sides, and maybe find that couple of signings that will enable them to meet, or even surpass, their targets. We have seen teams perform exceptionally well under pressure in January, which can have a dramatic effect on the rest of their seasons. For example, remember Papiss Cisse's 13 goals in 14 games for Newcastle following his £9m move from Freiburg in January 2011, pushing Newcastle to the cusp of the Champions League.

Alternatively, January can also be a month to dread for sides, particularly teams towards the bottom end of the table. With Chairmen often finding it difficult to resist offers for their star men, selling an in-form player can equally have consequences - and not good ones.

With this in mind, who is likely to be making their move in this month-long carnage? And who is likely to be hoping that not much goes on?

Arsenal - YES
As attractive as flair players are, you need a bit of grit at the back to be successful. Despite this being shouted almost every week at Arsene Wenger by the pundits on Match of the Day (and in some cases, his own fans!), Arsenal have yet to sign a top quality defender to go alongside the likes of Sanchez, Cazorla, Ramsey etc going forward. Maybe it's because he couldn't find anyone French, but he has to move quickly in this window to ensure that Arsenal do not lose their top 4 status.

Who would be good? Though not a long term signing, Ron Vlaar may well be an option, however I feel that with Borussia Dortmund currently on such a poor run, there has never been a better time to test their resolve with a bid for either Mats Hummels or Neven Subotic.

Aston Villa - NO
With limited funds, this month may well be all about keeping their key players, rather than extending. The likes of Ron Vlaar and Christian Benteke may once again be targets for the larger teams, so Paul Lambert will do well to retain his current squad. The loss of either of these could be the difference between Premier League football next year, and a trip to the Championship.

Burnley - NO
Like Villa, it will be all about keeping hold of their key men - specifically Danny Ings.

Chelsea - MAYBE
Despite their considerable wealth, I am not expecting to see too much out of Chelsea this January. With Jose Mourinho having spent heavily in the summer to build his own team, I honestly can't think of many positions that he needs to replace. From front to back, they are pretty intimidating as a side, so I think it may be a case of some investment in youth players for the title-chasers.

Crystal Palace - MAYBE
With a new manager in the shape of Alan Pardew, the January transfer window could represent a good opportunity to stamp his authority on his new club. A top quality striker or midfielder may be the way forward, so a cheeky bid for either Danny Ings or Charlie Austin may be on the cards.

Everton - NO
Having forked out £28m on Romelu Lukaku in the summer, and with a chairman notoriously shy on splashing the cash, it is unlikely that we are to see any big business from the Toffees. I think reducing the injury list needs to be at the top of their priorities - then we may see them find some form.

Hull - MAYBE
Much like Everton, considerable investment made in the summer means that the Tigers should be expected to be fairly quiet. A couple of loan deals may be on the way (with Hatem Ben Arfa clearly on the way out), but other than strengthening the defence, I'm not sure Hull will be able to do much more in the window.

Leicester - YES
At the King Power, however, we may see some movement. With wealthy backers, Leicester perhaps did not take full advantage of the summer transfer window, with their only significant money signing the £7m buy of Leonardo Ulloa. The team continues to leak goals, so some strengthening in the centre of midfield and defence may well be needed.

And who could they get? From a midfield perspective, Manchester United's Anderson or Werder Bremen's Cedric Makiadi may be reasonable purchases for relatively little outlay, while defensively, Celtic's Virgil van Dijk may also help.

Liverpool - YES
Following a number of less than convincing summer buys, Brendan Rodgers has already made his intentions clear to dip into the transfer market this month - I'm guessing predominantly for a striker. With reports surfacing of links to a huge bid for Karim Benzema or Ilkay Gundogan, I personally think they are too far-fetched. Bids for targets like Wilfried Bony or even Schalke's Klaas-Jan Huntelaar may well be more realistic, but it will mean more outlay on an already expensive transfer spend.

Manchester City - YES
With both Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko injured, City's main transfer targets must be strikers this January. Like Liverpool, I see them looking towards the likes of Bony, with certain reports also linking the Blues to Atletico Madrid's Mario Mandzukic. If I had my way, I'd be making a considerable offer for Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus, as he can play either wide or up front. This would allow for potential rotation when City's main strikers become available, and would give Manuel Pellegrini an additional option.

Manchester United - YES
Despite spending over £150m in the summer, United will also be looking towards new faces this month. Defensively, the Red Devils have been a nightmare, and have relied heavily on David de Gea to bail them out in games. However, without the allure of Champions League football, they can kiss goodbye to attracting the likes of Mats Hummels, though Neven Subotic may be a more realistic aim. Alternatively, it may be that Louis van Gaal dips into his Dutch World Cup squad once more to target FC Porto's Bruno Martins Indi.

Newcastle United - NO
In short, keeping Moussa Sissoko may prove Newcastle's largest test in January, but with proven strikers in Papiss Cisse and Ayoze Perez, and a strong continent of youth players, I expect a new manager to be the only real incoming on Tyneside.

QPR - MAYBE
Should Charlie Austin leave, I expect the Hoops to flex their financial muscle again. However, having already agreed the loan signing of Mauro Zarate from West Ham, unless Austin is sold I'm expecting more deals of this kind or little to come from the London club.

Southampton - NO
After such an exceptional start to the season, I don't think they need anyone! Having made a number of top class signings in the summer, I think the time should certainly be spent on gelling their squad and building for the future with their stellar youth set-up.

Stoke - NO
Similar to a number of clubs, a lack of available funds and a reasonable summertime spend means that Mark Hughes is unlikely to strengthen his squad in January. Given his success, it may be keeping hold of Bojan Krkic that is Stoke's best bit of business.

Sunderland - NO
With the Black Cats still in the heart of a relegation battle, I think Gus Poyet will trust in the side he has, particularly after their spirited display away at Manchester City.

Swansea - MAYBE
This all depends on Wilfried Bony's future. The big Ivorian has been linked with moves to Liverpool, Manchester City or Tottenham, and despite being unavailable at the African Cup of Nations, Swansea's transfer budget may depend on any sale.

Tottenham - MAYBE
Other than a striker, Spurs are pretty much sorted. They are currently overly reliant on Harry Kane, and though the youngster has been in exceptional form, he will at some point need a rest. With both Roberto Soldado and Emmanuel Adebayor both woefully out of form, Wilfried Bony has been tipped for a move to White Hart Lane. Other than that, Spurs are looking fairly strong at the minute, so should the Ivorian move, I sense it being the only purchase.

West Brom - MAYBE
Like Crystal Palace, a new manager may mean a change in squad, however, with a limited budget, I'm not sure Tony Pulis is set to make many changes. A striker would be a good start, as the Baggies have struggled for goals so far this year, but it may be a battle between them and Crystal Palace for Danny Ings.

West Ham - NO
Like Southampton, such has been the excellent start to the season for West Ham, I really don't feel they need to buy anyone. Big Sam made a number of good signings in the summer, and I expect it to be enough to get them through the rest of the year.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Title Race)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Beginning with the title race, I (wrongly as it turned out) assumed that the winner would almost inevitably come from one of the three teams that have shared the title for the last 10 years: Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea. Though we now know we need to throw Liverpool into the mix, it is worth looking back over the fixtures, and seeing just how right (or often, wrong) I was.

Strangely, based on the fixtures I picked Manchester United to retain their title. I identified the three key times of the season, looking at the five fixtures at the beginning, middle and run-in. In reality, United have massively underperformed in both of the beginning and middle fixtures. Though they started well, with an emphatic 4-1 victory away at Swansea City, their form tailed off dramatically. A boring 0-0 draw with then-title rivals Chelsea was followed by two devastating defeats, away at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Manchester derby was particularly damaging, both for United's title chances, and David Moyes's credibility, as the Red Devils were comprehensively outplayed (the first of many times that would occur this season). Though I did not select United to start the season particularly well, I did not expect them to collapse quite so spectacularly.

Manchester City's start was considerably less tricky, and as a result saw them post a more healthy total after 5 games. Beginning the season with a 4-0 demolition of Newcastle, City were shocked by newly-promoted Cardiff City in a topsy-turvy game. Despite taking the lead, Cardiff came from behind to record one of the surprise results of the season, winning 3-2. This defeat evidently affected the Blues, as they laboured to a 2-0 victory in their next home game against Hull. A 0-0 draw at Stoke, historically a tough place to go, left City lagging behind slightly. However, the resounding victory over United sent out a real message into their title rivals and reinstated City's place towards the top of the table.

The final contenders I covered, Chelsea, began the season with a comfortable home win over Hull City, with fans rejoicing in the return of the 'Special One'. Though the fixtures changed slightly to accommodate the UEFA Super Cup, meaning that Chelsea picked up another home win over Aston Villa, that bore draw with Manchester United checked the rhythm of the Blues. This was further disrupted by the 1-0 defeat suffered at Goodison Park against a resurgent and difficult Everton. However, the 2-0 win over Fulham was the perfect tonic for their difficult period and meant that Chelsea could regain the momentum lost through their 100% home record.

I predicted that of those opening 5, it would be Manchester City that performed best, with Chelsea having to travel to Everton and Manchester United, and United having a horrible run of fixtures (causing David Moyes to have a meltdown about them - would it have happened with Fergie in charge?).  After the opening 5, I was still fairly confident that surprises like Cardiff's win against City was an example of teams bedding in and learning the ropes under a new manager, and I was confident that form would pick up as the season went on. Whilst I was not particularly surprised with the defeats United had away at City and Liverpool, the manner of them was shocking, and it looked like they would be the side most in need of adjustment.

End of First 5: Manchester United - 7pts (8th), Manchester City - 10pts (3rd), Chelsea - 10pts (4th)

To be fair to United and Moyes, whilst they looked defensively suspect, particularly at home, their away for has been impressive throughout the season, and eventually they began to improve in the mid-season period. Traditionally, the games over Christmas are where United really begin to gain momentum, so their rather fortunate five fixtures helped them considerably. Looking between the 14th December and New Year's Day, United began with a winnable tie at Aston Villa. With their excellent away form, win they did, and comfortably - 3-0. Three further victories, a 3-1 win at home to West Ham, a 3-2 come from behind win at Hull and an edgy 1-0 win over Norwich at Carrow Road saw United begin to string together results and gain momentum. However, once again their abysmal home form came back to bite them. Having already lost to Everton, Newcastle and West Brom at Old Trafford by this point, United's fortess of the past decades had been eradicated. This was proven once again with another dismal display at home to Tottenham, where goals from the rejuvenated Emmanuel Adebayor and the excellent Christian Eriksen gave Spurs a deserved 2-1 win and denting United's title prospects further.

Man City's mid-season fixture list was dauting, with visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as a tough tie at Swansea. I said in my earlier post that this may be the making or the breaking of City's season, and if so, it certainly made it. A 6-3 demolition of Arsenal in an incredible game at the Etihad saw City continue their unbelievable goalscoring form. Though they were winning, they were having to do it the hard way. A 4-2 away win at Fulham saw the Blues chuck a 2-0 lead away, before recovering to claim the three points. With similarly free-scoring Liverpool the next to travel to City, they could ill-afford more slip-ups. In a testing and absorbing contest, a Simon Mignolet error handed Alvaro Negredo the decisive goal in a 2-1 victory for the Blues. Two further wins at home to Crystal Palace and away at Swansea saw City claim maximum points from the mid-season and keep themselves very much in the hunt for the silverware.

Chelsea had a similarly difficult run of games, but they started with a comfortable (but not too easy) 2-1 win at home to a resurgent Crystal Palace. Mourinho's tactics ensured that they left their next game at the Emirates with their goal untroubled, but too often left them toothless upfront in a boring 0-0 draw. The lack of goals has been a theme throughout this season for Chelsea, and this was proven with the 1-0 win at Swansea, where Samuel Eto'o missed several golden opportunities to make the scoreline more emphatic. However, winning is winning, and a huge victory in the crunch game at home to Liverpool ensured that Chelsea remained well in the title race approaching the New Year. A dominant 3-0 win at the difficult St Mary's Stadium in Southampton saw Chelsea move within two points of the top spot, having taken 13 from the 15 points available in the period.

Here I was surprised. I predicted that it would be Manchester United that performed best of the three, as their fixtures seemed markedly easier than either those of Chelsea or City. However, it is probably unfair to castigate too much, as all three sides had excellent mid-season periods, with 12 out of 15 being the worst return. City's demolition of Arsenal sent out a warning shot to the rest of the Premier League that they were ready to fight their corner to the end, whilst Chelsea were quietly creeping up behind. By this point, United had already lost too much ground to put them in the title shake-up, and their efforts were now focused on claiming that all important 4th place. If they continued the way they managed in the mid-season, this was certainly possible.

End of Middle 5: Manchester United - 34pts (7th), Manchester City - 44pts (2nd), Chelsea - 43pts (3rd)

So what happened as the season reached its climax? Well, United continued to be consistently inconsistent, with their away form remaining the best in the division. However, their home form continues to be their undoing, and they seem incapable of competing in the big games. Heavy 3-0 defeats in successive games against Liverpool and Manchester City followed the 3-1 loss to Chelsea, ultimately ending United's push for a Champions League place. How badly this will affect the future of the club remains to be seen, but irrespective of what Moyes says, I truly believe that it will have a negative impact on the calibre of player United can attract. As a result, I would not be surprised to see a lot of new faces at United over the summer, but few will be huge headline names.

Manchester City, rocked by injuries to key personnel at times, have gone off the boil at a critical moment. Despite looking unstoppable at times in the mid-season, cruising past Spurs, Norwich and Arsenal with huge scores, the injury to Sergio Aguero has halted their goalscoring prowess. They, like United have failed in the big games, with a pair of defeats against Chelsea being followed by an incredibly damaging 3-2 defeat away at Liverpool (marked as a title decider). Wednesday's draw with Sunderland takes the title well and truly out of their hands, and they now need someone to do them a favour if they are to reclaim the trophy they won two years ago.

Chelsea have continued in the vein they have seen all season - winning games, but not scoring goals. As such, they are within touching distance of leaders Liverpool, but without a particularly good goal difference or any games with spectacular scorelines. Though they would now be favourite of the three I picked to win the title from here, it is interesting consider the three in the race and how I believe it will pan out as we head into the home straight.

5 To Go: Liverpool (1st), Chelsea (2nd), Manchester City (3rd)

The real surprise of the season was the rise of Liverpool. Their potent attacking force has made the Anfield side difficult to stop this campaign, as proven by their monumental home victories against all of their title rivals thus far. However, two damaging results ensured that the title would be making its way back to Manchester for the fourth successive year. Chelsea's brilliant, if a little dull, victory at Anfield was followed by an incredible collapse at Crystal Palace, handing momentum, and ultimately the trophy, back to City.

City, after their defeat at Liverpool, and the 2-2 draw with Sunderland, seemed rank outsiders for the title. However, 6 successive wins, including tough away ties at The Eagles and Goodison Park, a traditional bogey ground, meant that a final day coast at home to West Ham handed them the crown.

Jose Mourinho's Chelsea, having beaten the Reds, shot themselves in the foot, dropping points at home to Sunderland and Norwich, wrecking what promised to be a golden return for the Special One.

At the end of one of the closest championship battles for years, we could have seen the trophy back in the North West - but not in the place you would expect. However, one of the most exciting races in recent memory promises to be even more so next year, with free-spending Chelsea and Manchester City likely to be joined by Manchester United and Arsenal, if they can avoid injuries. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Liverpool can marry European football, particularly Champions League, with a decent domestic campaign. We have seen sides struggle to compete for multiple honours, and it will be a real test of Brendan Rodgers' small squad next year.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.

Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.

Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.

Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.

Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).

For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.

I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.

After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)

As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.

For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.

Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.

Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.

I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.

After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)

With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.

This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.

End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)

So what of my prediction?

Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?

Liverpool: Will The 'Suarez Saga' Wreck Their Chances?

2012/2013: 7th

Transfer(s) In: Simon Mignolet (Sunderland, £9 Million), Iago Aspas (Celta Vigo, £7 Million), Luis Alberto (Sevilla, Undisc), Kolo Toure (Manchester City, Free), Aly Cissoko (Valencia, Loan), Victor Moses (Chelsea, Loan), Tiago Ilori (Sporting Lisbon, £7 Million), Mahmadou Sakho (Paris Saint Germain, £18 Million)

Transfer(s) Out: Stuart Downing (West Ham United, £5 Million), Jay Spearing (Bolton Wanderers, Undisc), Pepe Reina (Napoli, Loan), Jonjo Shelvey (Swansea, £6 Million), Andy Carroll (West Ham United, £15 Million), Jamie Carragher (Retired)

Transfers Review:

                                           Liverpool have made several good additions to the squad this summer, with central defender Kolo Toure the first to be announced. With Martin Skrtel and Daniel Agger the only top defenders in the squad, the addition of the experienced member of the 'Invincibles' can only be positive. Mixing youth with experience, the signing of Luis Alberto is certainly one that was intended to replace the departing Jonjo Shelvey. Iago Aspas, the ex-Celta Vigo striker, will add valuable goals after an excellent season in La Liga last term. Another crucial signing was Simon Mignolet. The young goalkeeper has proven his ability at Sunderland, and I feel will go on to become one of Europe's top keepers in the next few years. They were relatively busy in the days leading up to the deadline, with three further incomings. Defenders Tiago Ilori and Mahmadou Sakho will be very useful signings, and Victor Moses will provide a little more creativity down the wings. If we look at my Liverpool season review post, in which I predicted their signings this summer, just a central defender was what I foresaw. In Kolo Toure they have that, and I suspect that their other signings will only push them to better performances this campaign.

                                              As much as their incomings are positive, they have also lost several members of the squad, members that were used at least semi-regularly last season. Jamie Carragher's decision to retire was not a surprise, but Liverpool will miss his experience and leadership in defence. Two promising youth prospects have also left the club this summer, with Jay Spearing and Jonjo Shelvey opting to join Bolton Wanderers and Swansea respectively. Whilst they may not have been regular starters, they certainly affect the strength and depth of the squad, which could take its toll later on. One fo the least surprising transfers was Andy Carroll's to West Ham. After a successful loan period last term, it came as little surprise that West Ham moved to make his move permanent. With Brendan Rodgers clearly illustrating that the big Geordie was surplus to requirements at Anfield, the striker knew that he would soon have to look elsewhere. With West Ham interested, the deal suited both parties. West Ham also made another signing from Liverpool, with Stuart Downing, who Sam Allardyce claimed was an unrealistic target just a few weeks ago, making the trip down to East London to sign for £5 Million. After his form improved drastically last campaign, I wonder if this was a good decision from the Northern Irish manager, as I feel Downing had more to give at Anfield.

                                                However, this transfer window has been beset by controversy for Liverpool, with their talismanic striker Luis Suarez making clear designs to leave the North West club. With regular links to Real Madrid, with the striker admitting that he wanted to join the Spanish side. As the transfer window rolled on, Arsenal became more and more interested in the Uruguayan, with Arsene Wenger a clear admirer of the striker. An initial offer of a reported £30 Million was rejected out of hand by Liverpool, before Arsenal attempted to unlock a clause in his contract with an offer of £40 Million and £1. Though the Gunners did not know it at the time, the clause only meant that Liverpool had to alert Suarez and allow him to talk to Arsenal, not that they had to release the Uruguayan. This pedantry has caused Suarez to become more and more disenchanted with Liverpool, making an increased number of clear statements about his intention to leave. This has culminated in Rodgers insisting that the striker has shown a 'lack of respect' to the club and forcing him to train alone. Whilst this is the most high-profile controversy, Pepe Reina's move to Napoli is another instance in which the club, and Rodgers in particular, has been accused of being disrespectful. Reina, on arrival in Italy, accused his manager of loaning him to the Serie A club without telling him, saying that he felt hurt and that he deserved better. This shows that there may be blame on both sides of the Suarez debate, but thankfully for Liverpool, the Uruguayan seems to have put this behind him. This could have had disastrous consequences for the North West club's season, as a disruptive part of the squad would inevitably have had an effect. As it is, the Reds will miss out on the striker for the opening 6 games of the season (the punishment for his bite on Branislav Ivanovic), but they will be glad to have his ability back at their disposal, and he may be valuable later on.

Pre-Season:

                                                   The 'Suarez saga' has seemingly not had any effect on the squad throughout the pre-season, as the Liverpool results indicate that it has actually brought them together as a unit. Liverpool started with a comfortable 4-0 victory away at Preston before embarking on a tour of Asia. During this tour, Liverpool won all three of their matches, without conceding a single goal. They began with a 2-0 win against the Indonesia All Stars, before a success by the same scoreline against Melbourne Victory, and finishing with a 3-0 victory against Thailand. Moving back to the UK, Liverpool also played three further fixtures.

                                                     They started their run to the Premier League season with a match against Greek side Olympiakos, in Steven Gerrard's testimonial. The England midfield is best known in Liverpool for 'that goal' against the Greeks in 2005, which set them on their way to the Champions League title. A 2-0 success in this game for the Scouser, after goals from Joe Allen and Jordan Henderson. A second game against Valerenga ended in a 4-1 victory for Liverpool, with goals from Aspas, Alberto, Sterling and Kelly. The Reds ended their pre-season preparations with a visit to Celtic. After a perfect pre-season that had seen them win 6 straight matches, Liverpool lost their final game 1-0, after a goal from Amino Balde. This was the worst possible way to end their preparations, especially after such a promising start.

Key Players:

                                                       I would say that a player that will be crucial to Liverpool's success is Phillipe Coutinho.  The little Brazilian impressed since his move to the North West in January 2013, creating multiple chances and goals for the strike partnership of Suarez and Daniel Sturridge. His form will continue this season, as his vision and passing ability will make him a valuable asset to Liverpool.

                                                        At the back, Martin Skrtel will have to be a rock in order to improve their defensive record over the last couple of seasons. Liverpool have had a tendency to concede soft goals, and this is something they will need to cut out if they are to try and challenge for one of the Champions League places.

Key Fixture Dates:

01/09/2013: Liverpool vs Manchester United
02/11/2013: Arsenal vs Liverpool
23/11/2013: Everton vs Liverpool
14/12/2013: Tottenham vs Liverpool
28/01/2014: Liverpool vs Everton
08/02/2014: Liverpool vs Arsenal
15/03/2014: Manchester United vs Liverpool
29/03/2014: Liverpool vs Tottenham

Top Goalscorer:

                                                          In my opinion, with the departure of Suarez seeming imminent, I feel that the man to take over his mantle is Daniel Sturridge. The ex-Manchester City and Chelsea man showed impressive form since his move to Liverpool, and I expect this to continue. His partnership with Coutinho flourished at Anfield, and their understanding of one another will only strengthen in the months to come. I do not believe that he will challenge the Golden Boot this season, but 15-20 goals is the best he can expect to achieve.

Prediction:

                                                            Liverpool will be aiming for a European spot this season, with the rather optimistic target of the top 4 being bandied about by many football commentators. I do not believe that Liverpool have returned to their glory days, nor do I feel that they have an adequately deep or strong squad to compete with the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal over the course of the whole season. I think that the best that they can expect is to leapfrog Everton into 6th this campaign. With stability finally seeming possible for Liverpool, it will need small steps back towards the Champions League spots, meaning that this season is too son for that.

Liverpool 2013/2014: 6th

2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Champions League)

          This week marked the announcement of the fixtures for the 2013/14 Premier League. Using the initial fixture list, this week I will be doing a series of four blog posts. The first three concern the potential impact of the fixtures on the races for the title, the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. In the final post in the series, I will be uploading a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, designed to allow people to get involved in my annual predictions competition. In this second, I will be assessing the fixture list, and analysing its potential impact upon the race for the final Champions League spot. This race has been fiercely fought over the last few years, with the rewards for qualifying particularly lucrative. Based on the last few years, it is relatively safe to assume that the primary contenders for the 4th place spot this year will be Arsenal, Tottenham and possibly Liverpool. Whilst I accept that anomalies may occur (Newcastle in 2012 springs to mind), these are incredibly difficult to predict, even with the influence of the fixtures. Nevertheless, where possible I will try, but I will be predominantly focusing on the three expected contenders.

         Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.

        Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.

        The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.

         Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.

         Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.

         Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.

          Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.