PL 16/17 Predictions Series: Everton

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea

Last season
Overall, it's another year of disappointment for the Goodison Park faithful, who felt that the 11th place return did not represent the potential of the squad - 13 points behind their city rivals. Though the club did reach the semi-finals of both the League and FA Cups, losing out narrowly to both Manchester clubs, Roberto Martinez was deemed surplus to requirements after poor league form.

Backroom setup
As mentioned, Martinez, who enjoyed an outstanding first season at Everton, finishing 5th, could not survive the second 11th place finish in two years. However, Bill Kenwright moved quickly to replace the Spaniard, bringing in Ronald Koeman from Southampton for an estimated fee of £5m. The Dutchman had enjoyed a hugely successful year at the Saints, and had demonstrated his ability to sign players with a relatively small budget, securing the signings of the likes of Sadio Mane, Dusan Tadic, Graziano Pelle and Fraser Forster.

In addition, the Toffees pulled off a coup, poaching the Leicester talent spotter Steve Walsh, behind some of the key individuals at the heart of their Premier League success: N'Golo Kante, Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez.

Pre-season
The Koeman era certainly got off to a strong start, with successive victories against Czech side Jablonec, Barnsley and the MK Dons, conceding just one goal and scoring seven. However, their pre-season has hit the buffers in recent matches, with two games in Dresden yielding a draw and a defeat to Real Betis and Dynamo Dresden respectively. However, Gerard Deulofeu's early form will have pleased Koeman, with three goals in four games putting him in a good place for the start of the season.

The final games will have done little to lighten the mood at Goodison. I think the best thing I can say about the Wayne Rooney testimonial is that Everton played in it, while they finished their pre-season with a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Espanyol. With no win in four, it's hardly the form Everton will be looking for to start the year!

Squad and signings
Bubbling but not yet reached the boiling. With just the signings of Dutch international Maarten Stekelenburg and Idrissa Gueye to show for their efforts so far in terms of first team players, I'm convinced that more will be coming over the next few weeks. There have been strong links to both Ashley Williams and Yannick Bolasie over recent days, which indicates their intention, but they will be keen to get something completed quickly to bed them in.

However, as with so many mid-table Premier League clubs, much will depend on the outgoings. To date, Everton have looked to clear out many of the ageing stars that have carried them through the last five seasons, with Tim Howard returning to America with the Colorado Rapids, and Leon Osman, Tony Hibbert and Steven Pienaar all being shown the door. With John Stones also making a £47.5m switch to Manchester City, Everton now have plenty of funds to play with, so expect some fireworks over the coming weeks as the club look to take advantage.

Tactics
It will be interesting to see how Everton's on field play changes with the appointment of Koeman. There are certainly similarities with the Dutchman's Southampton side, with a number of flair midfielders and a big target man of a striker. We may see Ross Barkley given more freedom to become a Sadio Mane type attacking midfielder, while Lukaku will likely be given less balls to run onto and more heading to do as Lennon and Deulofeu look to whip crosses in. In addition, Baines and Coleman are likely to be given even more license to get forward to mirror Cedric and Bertrand for the Saints last year.

Predictions
There is no doubt that Everton have the talent to break into the top 10 consistently, and now they have a manager capable of taking them there. However, I would have to say that they need to make a couple of solid additions before their squad is complete - if they make them I may revise this, but I'm going in the lower reaches of the top 10 for the first Koeman season.

Final position: 8th

The Premier League and Europe: A Subconscious Uncoupling?

And so, a devastating fortnight for English clubs in Europe draws to a close. For the second time in three years, we have no representative in the Champions League beyond the last 16. Even more worryingly, it's the fourth time in five seasons that no English side has made it to the quarters of the Europa League. And never before have both happened in conjunction. So what has gone wrong? How has a league extolled for its pace and power, ranked as one of the top two leagues in the world, deteriorated when it comes to the European competitions?

However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.

Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.

So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?

The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.

What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?

The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool,  both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?

Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.

Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.

In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.

In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.

The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.

English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.

Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.

Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.

Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.

Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).

For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.

I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.

After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)

As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.

For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.

Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.

Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.

I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.

After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)

With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.

This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.

End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)

So what of my prediction?

Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?

Tactics Talk: Everton vs Arsenal

Lineups:

Everton (4-4-2): Howard, Baines, Stones, Distin, Coleman, Barry, Mirallas, Osman, McCarthy, Naismith, Lukaku

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Szchesny, Monreal, Vermaelen, Mertesacker, Sagna, Arteta, Flamini, Cazorla, Podolski, Rosicky, Giroud

This season has seen the resurgence of Merseyside, and both sides see themselves fighting for very different prizes, but ultimately both are in the same position. While Liverpool are the underdogs in the title race, with Brendan Rodgers claiming the pressure is off his side, Everton and Roberto Martinez are in the same situation, just swap the title for the Champions League. The recent run of 6 successive wins for the Toffees indicates that they are not unrealistically aiming at Arsenal's 4th spot, being only 4 points behind the Gunners at kick off with a game in hand.

This game was enormous for Arsenal. A win would keep their faint hopes of the title alive, while a draw would end those hopes. A defeat, however, would hand Everton an enormous boost and put Arsenal in danger of dropping out of the top 4 for the first time under Arsene Wenger's leadership. Despite a mound of injuries for Arsenal, both sides fielded as strong a side as they could.

The opening moments of the game saw the usual sparring, with neither side willing to take the initial risk. Leon Osman flashed a speculative volley wide, whilst Podolski wasted a reasonable chance at the other end. In the beginning exchanges, Arsenal were maintaining possession well, but failed to break through a stubborn Evertonian defence, with Stones and Distin holding the line well. Everton were forced into an early change, with Leon Osman being replaced by Ross Barkley after being caught in the face by a boot in a challenge. This was generally considered an attacking change, forcing Everton forward and just beginning to frustrate Arsenal.

After that tetchy start, Everton hit the front. A quick break away after a dangerous Arsenal attack left Leighton Baines marauding on the left side. A brilliant ball into Romelu Lukaku left the Belgian with a chance to get a shot away, forcing a save from Szchesny. However, Everton got fortunate with the rebound, falling to the clinical Steven Naismith, who tucked it into the far corner. With Baines and Coleman frequently terrorising the two Arsenal full backs, it came as little surprise that the goal came from this. However, despite this tactic clearly working, Arsenal failed to replicate this, opting instead to try and break down the middle, with Santi Cazorla and Tomas Rosicky the primary playmakers. However, this tactic never really came close to working, and the Arsenal defence continued to fail to understand the threat that the Everton wing-backs continued to pose, with Arsenal opting to remain fairly narrow to combat the threat of Barkley.

First half hour: Tactically, Arsenal looked inept, and Everton looked the more threatening, and looked likely to add to their deserved lead.

And so this proved. After a period of Arsenal pressure that once again yielded nothing, Everton struck on the break. With Lukaku drifting out wide, Nacho Monreal couldn't deal with the power of the Belgian, failing to show him down the line and allowing him to drift inside to fire beyond the goalkeeper. A critical goal and a hammer blow ten minutes before the break, Everton now held a strong position, which Arsenal would need to respond. But once again, they had no answer. Everton seemed more than happy, and more than comfortable to sit back and protect their lead to the break - and they did it comfortably.

Arsene Wenger would have needed to say something special to his team at half time or make some substantial changes. As the teams came out after the interval, it would have to have been the former, as each of the 11 that started the game continued. Initially, Arsenal looked marginally more threatening, with Wenger clearly telling them to target the wings, a tactic that had been so successful for Everton during the first period. A couple of individual errors by Everton gave them cause for concern, but once again they dealt fairly well with the Arsenal threat. As such, the game began to settle down as the hour mark approached. However, almost bang on the hour, the game was over. An error in the Arsenal midfield enabled Everton to threaten down the wing again, and the cross was eventually turned in by Mikel Arteta, of all people the ex-Everton man, under pressure by Kevin Mirallas.

Second half hour: Two goals and the game over with half an hour to go, Everton have outplayed Arsenal in every department.

Finally the sub arrived, but with far too much to do in far too little time. Podolski and Flamini were withdrawn in favour of Oxlade-Chamberlain and Ramsey. For Arsenal fans, it is great news to see Aaron Ramsey back on a football pitch, as he was one of the most illuminating players of the first half of the season, and it is no coincidence that his injury came at the same time as Arsenal's downturn in form, coupled with the absence of Theo Walcott and Mesut Ozil. In a final substitution, Arsene Wenger brought off the ineffective Olivier Giroud, who just hasn't lived up to expectations this season, for another disappointing striker, Yaya Sanogo.

By this point in the game, Everton knew they had the win under control, and were playing neat 'ole' football, giving their fans plenty to cheer. After excellent performances, Naismith and Lukaku were rested, with Aiden McGeady and Gerard Deulofeu coming on for the final 10 minutes. Other than Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain demonstrating how he could have affected the game, smashing a 25 yard shot off the face of the bar, there was little of interest. An injury time scuffle between Ross Barkley and Mikel Arteta, in which the Arsenal man received a yellow card, compounded the misery of the Gunners, who will now be looking anxiously over their shoulders.

Final half hour: No-one did anything of note in the final half hour, but by then, the game was well and truly beyond Arsenal, with Everton the clear and deserved winners.

This result shuts one door for Arsenal, and opens another extremely worrying one. This is an emphatic indication of the confidence of the two teams at present, which doe not bode well for the Gunners, who on paper have the easier run in. However, if Everton perform to the same level against the two Manchester clubs at Goodison, I do not see any reason why they can't pick up valuable points. The race for 4th is very much on, and it would come as no surprise to me if Everton break the 15 year hold on the Champions League enjoyed by Wenger and Arsenal.

Everton: Will The New Era Take Its Toll?

2012/2013: 6th

Transfer(s) In: Antolin Alcaraz (Wigan Athletic, Free), Joel Robles (Atletico Madrid, Undisc), Arouna Kone (Wigan Athletic, Undisc), Gerard Deulofeu (Barcelona, Loan), Roberto Martinez (Wigan Athletic, Undisc), Romelu Lukaku (Chelsea, Loan), Gareth Barry (Manchester City, Loan), James McCarthy (Wigan Athletic, £12 Million)

Transfer(s) Out: Thomas Hitzlsperger, Jan Mucha (Both Released), Phil Neville (Retired), David Moyes (Manchester United, Undisc), Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United, £27.5 Million)

Transfers Review:

                                            Undoubtedly, the most important transfers that have occurred at Everton this season involve the managerial position rather than any on-field place. After over a decade of loyal support, David Moyes decided that the Manchester United job was too good to refuse. After his repeated heroics with Wigan, firstly keeping them up season after season, and culminating in their FA Cup triumph in May. These credentials attracted the attention of Bill Kenwright, who managed to settle a fee with Dave Whelan to bring the talented Spaniard to Goodison.

                                               Most of the signings that Roberto Martinez has made have, at one time or another, represented Wigan during his time in charge. Alcaraz will add to the already strong defence, with Distin and Heitinga highly competant defenders. Joel Robles, who played that FA Cup final a couple of months ago, having been on loan from Atletico, will also provide adequate cover for Tim Howard. Arouna Kone is a proven goalscorer in the Premier League, having made double figures in a relegated team last season, and will provide many valuable goals in attack. James McCarthy, though an expensive signing, will provide further steel and creativity in the centre of midfield. Both Barry and Lukaku are good loan signings, and will provide short-term gains, but I feel that longer term solutions will be required. Deulofeu is a promising youngster from Barcelona, and I feel will be used sparingly throughout the season to give him the experience. However, whilst these signings are good, the majority of them have come from a side that have were relegated last season, so one must wonder just how much they will add to a top half team. In comparison to my prediction from my Everton season review post, Callum McManaman is about the only member of that Wigan side that looks promising not to be snapped up by the ex-Wigan manager. And typically, he is the one I predicted would go!

                                                    What the Toffees have managed to do is keep their hands on the majority of their star names. Though Marouane Fellaini did make the journey over to join his old manager, Leighton Baines remaining at Everton is a major boost to their success. With old manager Moyes and Manchester United seemingly desperate to secure their signatures, throughout the window it was a real battle to keep hold of Baines until September 3rd. The call from their old manager seemed to be too much to resist for the big Belgian, though Martinez will be pleased to have got £27.5 Million, a full 4 more than the old release clause.

Pre-Season:

                                               Everton began their pre-season preparations on home soil, with games against lower-league opposition. A good opportunity to try and find some new youth prospects, and a chance to bed some of the new signings into the squad earlier. Two wins, against Accrington and Blackburn followed, before we moved into August, where the competition got considerably more impressive. In the International Champions Cup, Everton faced Juventus in San Francisco in their opening game. After 90 minutes, a Kwadjo Asamoah strike levelled Kevin Mirallas's effort on the hour mark, and the game went into penalties. After 13 successful spot kicks, the game was settled in Everton's favour after Peluso's kick was saved by Howard. This left the Liverpudlian side with a tie against Real Madrid in LA. After Ronaldo scored the opener, he created a second for Mesut Ozil before the break. Nikica Jelavic grabbed a consolation for the Toffees, but Madrid hung on to eliminate Everton. Considering the opposition, Everton will be heartened by their performance.

                                                Their final two games took place back on home soil, with the visit of two Spanish sides. Firstly, they entertained Valencia, where they suffered a chastening 1-0 reverse. This readied them for their final game of the pre-season warm up against Real Betis, where they performed much better, securing a promising 2-1 win. These games suggest that they have the personnel, and the ability, to secure a positive performance in the Premier League, however, there are aspects to Everton's form that may cause them trouble during the campaign.

Key Players:

                                                I think that this will prove to be a massive season for Kevin Mirallas. The winger had a good initial season at Goodison Park, scoring a couple of memorable goals, and I think that he may have to take a more central role this time around. With Steven Naismith and Nikica Jelavic both out of form, this is when the Belgian will have to stand up and be counted.

                                                  Seamus Coleman could also be forced into a key player role this year. The young Irishman seems in that Baines-esque mould, and will often be seen bombing down either side. More commonly known as a right-back, he may have to transfer to the opposite side, and take the role of instigator of many attacks.

Key Fixture Dates:

03/11/2013: Everton vs Tottenham
23/11/2013: Everton vs Liverpool
03/12/2013: Manchester United vs Everton
07/12/2013: Arsenal vs Everton
28/01/2014: Liverpool vs Everton
08/02/2014: Tottenham vs Everton
05/04/2014: Everton vs Arsenal
19/04/2014: Everton vs Manchester United

Top Goalscorer:


                                                   If Kevin Mirallas takes to his more central role quickly, I feel he may well have a claim for this position. However, with the ability and pace that Arouna Kone has, coupled with the clinical finishing which led him to the top goalscorer for Wigan last time around, I feel that he may well pip the Belgian to the post. Since Roberto Martinez can get the best out of the Ivorian, it would be silly to assume that that partnership would stop working at Goodison Park.

Prediction:

                                                     I think that Roberto Martinez will do well at Everton, but he, like every other new manager in the field, will take time to adjust to his new role. His teams' mentalities of not playing until the clocks go forward will not do at a side like Everton. He can ill-afford the kind of start that Wigan were so accustomed to, as he has not only the European places to consider, but their standing within their own city. As things stand, unfortunately for the Toffees, the re-adjustment period will be too long to secure either of their objectives, and they will finish away from the European places and behind Liverpool. But they will be building for the future, especially if Martinez is given the amount of time that Moyes was.

Everton 2013/2014: 7th

                                                

2013/2014 Premier League Fixtures Announced: So It Begins... Again (Champions League)

          This week marked the announcement of the fixtures for the 2013/14 Premier League. Using the initial fixture list, this week I will be doing a series of four blog posts. The first three concern the potential impact of the fixtures on the races for the title, the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. In the final post in the series, I will be uploading a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, designed to allow people to get involved in my annual predictions competition. In this second, I will be assessing the fixture list, and analysing its potential impact upon the race for the final Champions League spot. This race has been fiercely fought over the last few years, with the rewards for qualifying particularly lucrative. Based on the last few years, it is relatively safe to assume that the primary contenders for the 4th place spot this year will be Arsenal, Tottenham and possibly Liverpool. Whilst I accept that anomalies may occur (Newcastle in 2012 springs to mind), these are incredibly difficult to predict, even with the influence of the fixtures. Nevertheless, where possible I will try, but I will be predominantly focusing on the three expected contenders.

         Similarly to the previous title race post, I will assess the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making an initial conclusion over who should be considered favourite for the position. Beginning with Arsenal, having claimed the final Champions League spot last year, edging out local rivals Spurs on the final day, they will be anxious to keep their great rivals behind them once again this campaign. They begin with a seemingly comfortable home game against Aston Villa, before a trip to London rivals Fulham as their first away tie of the season. Their third game is the big one of the section, with Tottenham visiting the Emirates. Whilst the previous two games have ended in a 5-2 home success, there can be little margin for error, and the result should not be considered as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. After the North London Derby, Arsenal have two expected victories, firstly away to Sunderland, and then at home to Stoke. In a season in which more pressure than ever will be heaped onto Wenger's shoulders to deliver a trophy, a good start is essential to that aim. Failing to accrue valuable points could have disastrous consequences for the Gunners, potentially even affecting the manager's position.

        Their main rivals for the final Champions League spot are also their local rivals, Tottenham. After two very near misses in the last two seasons, Spurs go into the 2013/14 campaign aiming to put right the heartbreak of the previous campaigns. In his second season in charge of the Lily Whites, Andre Villas Boas (AVB) will want to establish himself as a top manager in this country by qualifying for Europe's elite competition. Spurs start with a fairly kind fixture, with an away trip to newly promoted Crystal Palace, certainly a match the Spurs fans will expect three points in. Their White Hart Lane season kicks off with the visit of Swansea, which whilst potentially tricky, still puts Spurs as favourites to come out victorious. The trip to the Emirates stops the comfortable start to Spurs' campaign stone dead, and, with such a pivotal fixture so early in the season, gives AVB a good chance to lay his mark upon this campaign. Like Arsenal, after the North London Derby, Spurs have two relatively comfortable fixtures, firstly at home to Norwich, and then a potential banana skin tie at Championship champions Cardiff to round off the first 5. Tottenham often have good starts to the season, but tail off towards the back end. Therefore, a good start this campaign should be expected, but is no less essential than in previous seasons, as it gives Spurs breathing space to have a wobble later in the season.

        The final contender considered in detail is Liverpool. Whilst they have shown little in the way of threatening the top four in recent seasons, I have a feeling that the 're-adjustment period' may come to an end this time around. With Brendan Rodgers's philosophy beginning to take hold towards the back end of last season, there is real promise for the men from Merseyside to be dark horses for the final Champions League spot this time around. Beginning their season at home to Stoke gives them a good opportunity to obtain early points, before an often tricky trip to Villa Park. Like their rivals, the third game is when it begins to get serious, with a visit from champions Manchester United. Having so often been second best to their North West rivals in recent years, they will be anxious to rectify this at Anfield in late August. After this, a tricky trip to Swansea and a home tie against Southampton follow, giving Liverpool breathing space before their next significant fixture. This initial run of results could prove pivotal to their season, as a poor start could see them cast into the wilderness for another season. Based on the opening five fixtures of the three protagonists, it is hard to make any conclusions over the favourites to have a positive start, as all have difficult games, and even the seemingly simple ones are often difficult to predict.

         Moving onto the critical December period, which, as in the previous post, will consist of the five matches between December 14th and January 1st, we can see potential developments in this race. Beginning with the Gunners, we can see that their pivotal mid-season period begins with arguably the most difficult trip of the season to the Etihad Stadium, before an equally tough home game against Chelsea. Playing two title contenders in two games will play a critical role in arguably not just the success of this period, but of their season. Following these games, Arsenal take two tough away trips to both West Ham and then Newcastle, before ending this difficult period at home to Cardiff. Certainly I can see the Gunners dropping numerous points here, leaving the door open for their rivals. Spurs's mid-season begins in a similarly tough vein, entertaining rivals Liverpool in a Champions League 'six pointer'. A difficult trip to unpredictable Southampton follows this, before returning to White Hart Lane to play firstly West Brom, and then Stoke. Tottenham finish the period with a trip to Manchester United on New Year's Day, meaning that their mid-season ends as it began: with a difficult fixture. Whilst the Lily Whites may have won at Old Trafford last year, few would expect a repeat this campaign. Finally, Liverpool's mid season, beginning with that trip to White Hart Lane, before a winnable game against Cardiff. This period does not get any easier, with trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, before ending the period at home to Hull. Like Arsenal, this period may make or break their season, as with so many pivotal fixtures in so short a time, they have to maintain momentum, which means they cannot afford to lose fixtures. This period certainly benefits Spurs, as both Liverpool and Arsenal have several tricky ties. Whilst Tottenham do have a couple, they also have plenty of opportunities to pick up valuable points on their rivals.

         Looking at the final five fixtures, we see another shift in momentum. Arsenal, having had a significant amount of their pivotal fixtures either in the mid-season period, or spread evenly throughout the rest of the campaign, have a significantly easier run-in than either of their two rivals. Home fixtures against West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom are supplemented by winnable away ties at Hull and a final day trip to Norwich. This run is certainly one where you could see the Gunners picking up maximum points, giving them the perfect opportunity to put pressure on their rivals towards the end of the campaign. Tottenham's run-in is slightly more difficult, although it is not unforeseeable that they may attain maximum points. Difficult but winnable away trips to West Brom, Stoke and West Ham come between home games against Fulham and a final day visit of Aston Villa. Whilst I would expect Spurs to drop some points in the run-in, I do still expect them based on these fixtures to be there or there abouts come the end of the season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have not been graced with a fortunate fixture list. Visits from Manchester City and Chelsea could see them drop valuable points, meaning that victories away at Norwich and Crystal Palace are essential, before a final day showdown with Newcastle. This period could see the Reds cast adrift from the race, but victories over the big names could see them gather significant momentum towards the end of the season.

         Other than the major three, upon further examination of the fixtures at key times, Everton could also be in and around the running for that final space. A first 5 of Norwich (A), West Brom (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A) allows Everton the chance to amass early points, whilst at the same time having their credentials tested. The mid-season period of Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H) and Stoke (A) has similar implications, with most games being winnable, giving Everton fantastic momentum going into the second half of the season. The final 5 of Sunderland (A), Manchester United (H), Southampton (A), Manchester City (H), Hull (A) is slightly tougher, but with Roberto Martinez's knack of getting sides working well late into the season, it would be silly to completely write off their chances.

          Nevertheless, I still believe that based on the fixtures, Tottenham should be considered favourites for the final Champions League spot, followed by Arsenal, and the two Liverpool sides lagging slightly behind. It will be very interesting once the season starts, to see how accurate my predictions turn out to be.

Everton: Top Dogs in Liverpool? And What Now?

2012/2013 Season Review:

                One of the most stable sides in the country, with consistent top 8 finishes for the last 5 years, Everton began the season looking for further consolidation, and to perhaps achieve what Newcastle had managed the previous campaign: to challenge for the Champions League. With signings such as Kevin Mirallas from Olympiakos, they simply added speed to their growing list of talents, managing to hold on to all of their key names from the previous season. Everton, being perennial slow starters, wanted to find more consistency and good performances from the very start of the season. Beating Manchester United on the opening weekend is certainly a good way to start! With Marouane Fellaini in exceptional form for the first month of the season, Everton won 4 of their opening 6 league games. Despite a disappointing Capital One Cup exit at the hands of Championship side Leeds United, Everton maintained their strong League form throughout September.

                Often the quiet side that sneaks up into the top six, Everton were once again fulfilling those expectations. Unspectacularly but critically amassing the points, whilst steering clear of significant controversies like at Chelsea, Everton looked in a strong position going into October. Four straight league draws slowed the Toffee’s bandwagon slightly. If we were to be pessimistic, we could say that Everton won 2 of 11 matches between October and mid-December, but on the other hand, only 2 league defeats in 15 matches sounds considerably better. To state the first statistic does Everton’s performances during this period a disservice, in my opinion, but you could certainly argue that it was during this part of the season where they lost the potential to challenge for a Champions League spot.

                Everton’s consistent form continued into the new year, where once again draws were relatively common, but defeats were impressively infrequent. If we go back to my earlier unbeaten stat and extend it further, we can see that Everton only lost 3 games in 23 between October and mid-February. Translate some of those draws to victories and we see a team highly capable of not only challenging for Champions League football, but being on the outskirts of the title shake-up. Progression to the Sixth Round of the FA Cup, albeit with a little Matt Smith inspired hiccup at Oldham, gives further indication that Everton can compete for multiple honours in the same season. There they met Wigan at home, leaving Everton strong favourites to progress to yet another Wembley Semi Final. Instead, three goals in 4 first half minutes propelled Wigan down to Wembley, and left Goodison Park stunned. The only performance all season where Everton were abject, but what an occasion to have it in!

                The latter part of Everton’s season was equally uneventful. With 6^th place virtually in the bag, and with it a guarantee to finish above Liverpool in the table once again, Everton could attempt to challenge Tottenham for the Europa League spot. An impressive 2-0 victory at home to Manchester City strengthened these aspirations, but as all too often, too many draws cost the Liverpudlians a shot at European qualification through the league. Chelsea’s Europa League victory has gifted a place in next year’s competition to Everton, and based on the vast majority of their performances this season, this is thoroughly deserved.

                The only significant talking point in Everton’s relatively uncontroversial season came in the last few weeks, with the announcement that David Moyes would be taking the reigns at Manchester United, after Sir Alex Ferguson stepped down after 26 years in charge. Moyes’s departure leaves arguably as large a hole at Everton as Fergie’s departure at United. After 11 years of fantastic and loyal service, Moyes gets the chance to manage a title-winning side, an opportunity he richly deserves. As for Everton, Roberto Martinez and Michael Laudrup have both been sounded out as potential replacements, but Moyes’s are big shoes to fill. He left this club top of its city and with European qualification. With the funds available to them, I wonder if the next manager will achieve that?

 

Player of the Season: Leighton Baines – A tough one between Baines and Fellaini, but I’m going to go for Baines. Fellaini, despite his fantastic start, became less effective as the season went on. In contrast, Baines remained consistently good throughout. He is the epitome of Everton’s season: highly successful but often unnoticed.

 

Game of the Season: Everton 2-0 Manchester City – This was never going to be either of the rather drap Merseyside derbies! The game in which I was most impressed with Everton, both as an attacking and defensive force, was in their victory over Man City in March. Despite having 10 men for half an hour, Everton dominated this game, and whilst they may have been lucky to survive a late handball appeal, they thoroughly deserved this win.

 

Summer Transfer Targets (Who I Think They Need): Firstly, replacing David Moyes is inevitably going to be of utmost importance. Roberto Martinez, especially after his years of heroics with Wigan, and his recent FA Cup giantkilling, seems to me the most likely candidate. Secondly, it depends on who David Moyes attempts to take with him, as I cannot see many turning down the opportunity to play at United. If no-one else leaves, I think very little in the way of alterations needs making, and given Bill Kenwright’s budget, that will suit him just fine! Perhaps just the addition of the impressive Callum McManaman, especially likely if Martinez becomes the manager, will give a bit extra pace and width to this Everton side.

 

Transfer Gossip Links:

In:

Luis Pedro Cavanda (Lazio, LB), Andreas Cornelius (Copenhagen, CM), Callum McManaman (Wigan Athletic, RW), Michael Laudrup (Swansea City, Manager), Roberto Martinez (Wigan Athletic, Manager)

Out:

David Moyes (Manchester United, Manager), Nikica Jelavic (West Ham United, ST), Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United, CAM), Leighton Baines (Manchester United, LB)