Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.
This third and final post in the series focuses on the battle to avoid the dreaded drop to the Championship. As I am looking at 7 different teams, this post will be a little less in depth than the other two, but hopefully just as informative and interesting. To find the other posts, click on the links below:
Title race
Champions League battle
First 5:
In my post nine months ago, I said that the relegation battle will involve the most teams, with a range of 7 potentially involved. Having looked at the opening fixtures of the teams involved, I picked my bottom part of the table to be: Newcastle, Sunderland, Hull, Stoke, Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Aston Villa. After surprise results like Aston Villa's victory over Arsenal and Cardiff's win at home to Manchester City, this is how the bottom of the table lined up after five fixtures:
West Brom - 5pts (14th), West Ham - 5pts (15th), Cardiff - 5pts (16th), Norwich - 4pts (17th), Fulham - 4pts (18th), Crystal Palace - 3pts (19th) and Sunderland - 1pt (20th)
So basically, I was way off. I didn't even factor in West Brom, West Ham, Norwich or Fulham on the fixtures, meaning that Stoke (10th), Hull (11th) Newcastle (12th) and most surprisingly Aston Villa (13th) were not even in the list. Despite this, five games can help someone's season, but it cannot decide whether they stay up and go down (until you get to the final five of course!). As a result, I was not too concerned with my lack of accuracy, but the second check would perhaps give us a better indication of how wrong I was!
Middle 5:
The middle 5 (taken between the dates of 14th December and 1st January - the most congested period of the season) would hopefully provide me with an opportunity to reclaim some lost pride. Taken purely on these 5 fixtures, I came up with a mini table to show which teams will take the most points from this period. This would contribute to the table, but would not necessarily indicate who is destined for the drop. Based on the fixtures, I predicted that the mini table of 7 would look like this: Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Hull and Crystal Palace. In reality, it looked like this:
Newcastle (7pts), Sunderland (6pts), Hull (5pts), Stoke (5pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Crystal Palace (4pts)
Again, I was wrong. Though in my defence, not quite as badly wrong as I had initially been. Of the bottom three, I accurately predicted two, and managed to suggest that the two North East clubs would be well away from danger when the time came. Nevertheless, if we look at the table as a whole by the time we get to New Year's Day, we see a wholly different complexion: West Brom - 21pts (14th), Norwich - 20pts (15th), Fulham - 19pts (16th), Cardiff - 18pts (17th), Crystal Palace - 17pts (18th), West Ham - 15pts (19th), Sunderland - 14pts (20th). Whether this means my test is not as accurate as those for the Champions League or the title race (although read those to see the issues I have had!), I am not sure, but certainly it is some way from my initial expectations at the beginning of the season.
So what happened since?
Well, a lot. Two of the bottom three at that time ended completely safe and free of danger, with Crystal Palace pulling off a master stroke in hiring Tony Pulis (whose appointment I actually disagreed with at the time but shhhhh!) and West Ham relying on Big Sam Allardyce to get them out of it, which he duly did. Sunderland pulled off the greatest of great escapes, with the 2-2 draw at the Etihad, sparking the most incredible of results. Away wins at Chelsea and Manchester United, along with a home success against West Brom ensured that the Black Cats steered themselves out of what seemed an impossible situation with one match to spare. With Fulham and Cardiff unable to drag themselves from their hole (meaning that Felix Magath suffered his first relegation as a manager), it was Norwich that bore the brunt of the Sunderland escape. Their incredibly tough end to the season ultimately condemned them to the Championship, but it was the lack of fight in games involving sides around them that cost the Canaries their place in the top tier.
In the final five fixtures, I expected this to be the mini league table: Stoke, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland and Newcastle. However, incredible runs for Sunderland and Crystal Palace meant it ended like this:
Sunderland (12pts), Crystal Palace (8pts), Stoke City (7pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Newcastle (3pts), Hull (1pt)
And my prediction?
Overall, I predicted that all three of the promoted sides would return to the Championship based on the fixtures. However, it is almost never that this actually occurs, and this is another example. Crystal Palace's inspired managerial alteration kept them clear of danger, whilst Hull's consistency ensured that they would have a cup final day, along with a Premier League place to treasure. Other than Cardiff, I didn't even include the two sides that ended up going down, as I believed them to be relatively safe!
Final table: Newcastle - 49pts (10th), Crystal Palace - 45pts (11th), Sunderland - 38pts (14th), Aston Villa - 38pts (15th), Hull - 37pts (16th), Cardiff - 30pts (20th)
So in the end, an interesting, but inconsistent test. Fixtures are a good indicator of form, which is a good indicator of performance, but it doesn't always work out like that. With external affairs able to alter that in the flip of a switch (the ownership debacle at Leeds is the perfect example of this), there is only so much that looking at the fixtures can do. Nevertheless, it does go to show that whilst the fixture organisers attempt to be objective and unbiased, they inevitably disadvantage some teams more than others.
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label Cardiff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cardiff. Show all posts
Sunday, 18 May 2014
Saturday, 26 April 2014
Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?
As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.
Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.
From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.
So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:
Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)
As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.
So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.
Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.
The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.
It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.
As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.
Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.
| Team | Manager Out (Games) | PPG | Manager In (Games) | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City | Malky Mackay (18) | 0.94 | Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15) | 0.8 |
| Crystal Palace | Ian Holloway (8) | 0.38 | Tony Pulis (24) | 1.63 |
| Fulham | Martin Jol (13) | 0.77 | Rene Meulensteen (13) | 0.77 |
| Fulham | Rene Meulensteen (13) | 0.77 | Felix Magath (9) | 1.11 |
| Norwich City | Chris Hughton (32) | 0.97 | Neil Adams (3) | 0 |
| Swansea City | Michael Laudrup (24) | 1 | Garry Monk (11) | 1.09 |
| Sunderland | Paolo di Canio (5) | 0.2 | Gus Poyet (27) | 1.04 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Andre Villas Boas (16) | 1.69 | Tim Sherwood (19) | 1.89 |
| West Bromwich Albion | Steve Clarke (16) | 0.94 | Pepe Mel (13) | 0.92 |
From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.
So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:
Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)
As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.
So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.
Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.
The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.
It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.
As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.
Monday, 21 April 2014
Cardiff's Complaint: Does James Bond Wear A Baseball Cap?
Well, the season just got strange. Rumours of underhand tactics and espionage have engulfed the Premier League in the last few days, with Cardiff manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer accusing Crystal Palace, and indirectly Tony Pulis, of stealing information that led to his side's embarrassing 3-0 home defeat at the hands of their then-relegation rivals. With an official complaint now hanging over the London club, this saga threatens to rumble on long into the summer, and that is the last thing football needs. I must start this with a disclaimer - below are my opinions. I have little to no facts about this case, and this piece is merely to explain my take on the story as it has emerged in the press thus far.
The last time I remember an espionage saga in sport, it took several months for an independent commission to check, double and triple check whether McLaren had stolen confidential information from their Ferrari rivals in the F1 championship in 2007. Very much like I think this will, it ended up ruining an extremely competitive season, tarring all teams with the same brush and casting a shadow of doubt on the whole sport.
However, do Crystal Palace and Tony Pulis have a case to answer? Cardiff allege that Iain Moody, Crystal Palace's sporting director, and a former director of recruitment at the Welsh club, phoned a former colleague, performance analyst Enda Barron, on 3rd April to ask if he could help him obtain the team for the match against Palace. The day before the match (4th April), Moody had apparently been able to obtain the starting line-up from another source. Though Moody and Barron directly deny any and all allegations, the evidence has begun to stack up.
Here is where Tony Pulis comes in. In a subsequent conversation between Moody and Barron, the Cardiff director was apparently overheard saying that he was 'under pressure from Pulis' to obtain the information. After this, more and more people continue to get sucked in, with Bolton boss Dougie Freedman and Cardiff player Aron Gunnarsson also playing bit-parts. Pulis has also been accused of referencing the incident in a chat between the two managers after the game, putting ever more pressure on the ex-Stoke man's shoulders.
In my opinion, there are two options over this case. Either there are too many coincidences to clear Crystal Palace and Pulis, implying that Crystal Palace could be in very serious breach of some of the FA's most important rules. However, the second option, which panders to my more cynical part, thinks that there are too many coincidences to be believable as guilt. Surely no-one can be as stupid as Cardiff are alleging, which implies an act of desperation from the Bluebirds' hierarchy to try and drag themselves out of the predicament they find themselves in.
While this latter option may seem unlikely, it is possible. As I stated, Moody discussing his scheme loudly enough to be overheard is about as idiotic as Al Qaeda making plans for their next attack in front of CCTV cameras or US presidents talking about phone tapping in a recorded conversation (that last one may not be such a good example...). Nevertheless, if we are expected to believe that this was Moody's first dip into the ocean of footballing espionage, mid-way through a season where his side were on a distinct upturn and heading away from danger, along with making several high profile and idiotic mistakes in the process, I'm not really buying it. If Moody has been doing this, he has probably been doing it for some time, which means he should be much better at covering his back than the evidence presented by Cardiff suggests.
Not that I am condoning this sort of practice. If it does occur, which I have little reason to doubt that it does, it is despicable, and brings the sport into disrepute. However, despite the old saying of 'never underestimate the stupidity of criminals', these are not stupid people being caught stealing DVDs from a shop. These are highly educated professionals, and one would expect that they would put considerably more time into the planning and execution of these actions than the allegations suggest.
However, one piece of evidence does appear particularly damning. Should it exist, the text message with the exact Cardiff first 11, which included three changes from the Bluebirds side that faced West Brom the week before, suggests that a real and genuine attempt has been made to obtain the information. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that this text message is real, and that someone tried to get hold of it, but to hear about all these shady but appallingly insecure meetings makes the story less believable to me.
Despite being a City fan, I have always found Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to be a genuine bloke, and my cynical explanation is not in keeping with his character. While this makes me doubt myself, from what I have heard, Vincent Tan's character is not so squeaky clean. The way that he conducts business, particularly the sacking of Malky Mackay, has been wrong, and it would not surprise me to find that he has been responsible for the 'sexing-up' of these allegations, in order to ensure that his side remains a Premier League club (and earns a rather hefty paycheck at the end of it!). Again, I must stress these are not direct allegations (before I get a chunky lawsuit!). I would rather be painted as a fantasist and a conspiracy theorist - I am merely trying to point out a) alternative explanations and b) demonstrate the cynical way my brain works.
So does James Bond wear a baseball cap? I don't know. I have no doubt that this story will run and run for months, tainting an otherwise brilliant season. It is a practice that should never occur, and if Palace are proven to be guilty, I would want to see them punished in the highest regard. If they have been the victims of a set up, however, I would expect Cardiff to receive a correspondingly high punishment.
The last time I remember an espionage saga in sport, it took several months for an independent commission to check, double and triple check whether McLaren had stolen confidential information from their Ferrari rivals in the F1 championship in 2007. Very much like I think this will, it ended up ruining an extremely competitive season, tarring all teams with the same brush and casting a shadow of doubt on the whole sport.
However, do Crystal Palace and Tony Pulis have a case to answer? Cardiff allege that Iain Moody, Crystal Palace's sporting director, and a former director of recruitment at the Welsh club, phoned a former colleague, performance analyst Enda Barron, on 3rd April to ask if he could help him obtain the team for the match against Palace. The day before the match (4th April), Moody had apparently been able to obtain the starting line-up from another source. Though Moody and Barron directly deny any and all allegations, the evidence has begun to stack up.
Here is where Tony Pulis comes in. In a subsequent conversation between Moody and Barron, the Cardiff director was apparently overheard saying that he was 'under pressure from Pulis' to obtain the information. After this, more and more people continue to get sucked in, with Bolton boss Dougie Freedman and Cardiff player Aron Gunnarsson also playing bit-parts. Pulis has also been accused of referencing the incident in a chat between the two managers after the game, putting ever more pressure on the ex-Stoke man's shoulders.
In my opinion, there are two options over this case. Either there are too many coincidences to clear Crystal Palace and Pulis, implying that Crystal Palace could be in very serious breach of some of the FA's most important rules. However, the second option, which panders to my more cynical part, thinks that there are too many coincidences to be believable as guilt. Surely no-one can be as stupid as Cardiff are alleging, which implies an act of desperation from the Bluebirds' hierarchy to try and drag themselves out of the predicament they find themselves in.
While this latter option may seem unlikely, it is possible. As I stated, Moody discussing his scheme loudly enough to be overheard is about as idiotic as Al Qaeda making plans for their next attack in front of CCTV cameras or US presidents talking about phone tapping in a recorded conversation (that last one may not be such a good example...). Nevertheless, if we are expected to believe that this was Moody's first dip into the ocean of footballing espionage, mid-way through a season where his side were on a distinct upturn and heading away from danger, along with making several high profile and idiotic mistakes in the process, I'm not really buying it. If Moody has been doing this, he has probably been doing it for some time, which means he should be much better at covering his back than the evidence presented by Cardiff suggests.
Not that I am condoning this sort of practice. If it does occur, which I have little reason to doubt that it does, it is despicable, and brings the sport into disrepute. However, despite the old saying of 'never underestimate the stupidity of criminals', these are not stupid people being caught stealing DVDs from a shop. These are highly educated professionals, and one would expect that they would put considerably more time into the planning and execution of these actions than the allegations suggest.
However, one piece of evidence does appear particularly damning. Should it exist, the text message with the exact Cardiff first 11, which included three changes from the Bluebirds side that faced West Brom the week before, suggests that a real and genuine attempt has been made to obtain the information. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that this text message is real, and that someone tried to get hold of it, but to hear about all these shady but appallingly insecure meetings makes the story less believable to me.
Despite being a City fan, I have always found Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to be a genuine bloke, and my cynical explanation is not in keeping with his character. While this makes me doubt myself, from what I have heard, Vincent Tan's character is not so squeaky clean. The way that he conducts business, particularly the sacking of Malky Mackay, has been wrong, and it would not surprise me to find that he has been responsible for the 'sexing-up' of these allegations, in order to ensure that his side remains a Premier League club (and earns a rather hefty paycheck at the end of it!). Again, I must stress these are not direct allegations (before I get a chunky lawsuit!). I would rather be painted as a fantasist and a conspiracy theorist - I am merely trying to point out a) alternative explanations and b) demonstrate the cynical way my brain works.
So does James Bond wear a baseball cap? I don't know. I have no doubt that this story will run and run for months, tainting an otherwise brilliant season. It is a practice that should never occur, and if Palace are proven to be guilty, I would want to see them punished in the highest regard. If they have been the victims of a set up, however, I would expect Cardiff to receive a correspondingly high punishment.
Monday, 12 August 2013
Cardiff City: Bluebirds Paint The Premier League Red
2012/2013: 1st (Championship)
Player(s) In: Gary Medel (Sevilla, £11 Million), Steven Caulker (Tottenham, £8 Million), Andreas Cornelius (FC Copenhagen, £7.5 Million), Simon Moore (Brentford, Undisc), John Brayford (Derby County, £2 Million), Maximiliano Amondarain (Nacional Montevideo, Free), Kevin Theophile-Catherine (Rennes, £2.5 Million), Peter Odemwingie (West Bromwich Albion, £2.9 Million)
Player(s) Out: Heidar Helguson (Retired), Robbie Earnshaw (Released)
Transfers Review:
As Cardiff did not participate in last year's Premier League, I do not have a season review to compare my predictions to, as I have done with my previous blog posts. However, Cardiff have been very active in this transfer window, particularly with incomings, which should give me plenty to talk about. Having repeatedly shattered their transfer record (firstly for Cornelius, then Caulker, and finally Medel), Cardiff have made their spending power abundantly clear to the rest of those hoping to avoid relegation. In Steven Caulker in particular, the Bluebirds have a player that has proven himself at Premier League level with Tottenham, and I believe will be a valuable member of the first team squad. The other big money signings will undoubtedly play a part, but I feel that they may take some time to bed into the squad and get used to the physicality of the Premier League. Cornelius looks a powerful centre-forward, and I think he will contribute with many of Cardiff's goals this season.
Another pleasing aspect for Cardiff fans is that, as well as making several valuable additions to the squad, they have also managed to maintain the majority of their title-winning squad from last year. Of the playing squad, only Earnshaw and Helguson have departed, leaving a wealth of talent, many of whom will make the necessary step up from Championship to Premier League football. However, whether that will be sufficient to keep the Bluebirds in the top flight, only time will tell.
Pre-Season:
With the prospect of being back in the Premier League after over a decade of absence, I would have expected Cardiff to play as many friendly matches as possible, in order to prepare their players, and to gel their new recruits. Malky Mackay obviously agreed with these sentiments, and scheduled 5 pre-season matches. Even more encouragingly for the Bluebirds, of those 5, they lost just one, and had two positive victories. Beginning with an enthralling 4-3 win over Forest Green, Cardiff then suffered two disappointing results as youth players were tested and the new signings were given time to bed into the squad. A 1-1 draw with Cheltenham was followed by a 3-2 defeat against Brentford. However, this would prove to be their last failure.
August's two games would provide optimism for the Cardiff fans, suggesting that many of their players may have what it takes to make the step up to the Premier League. Firstly, a 1-0 win over Italian Serie A side Chievo Verona, where striker Kim Bo Kyung gave Malky Mackay's side a morale boosting win. Further was to follow, as Cardiff dispensed of La Liga side Athletic Bilbao. The Spanish side, who made the Europa League final 2 years ago, fell 2-0 down to goals from Whittingham and Campbell, before Iraola pulled on back. But the Bluebirds held on to record a morale boosting victory over a European-quality side. Performing in this manner on a regular basis will be the challenge for Mackay's side.
Key Players:
If Cardiff are to succeed on their return to the Premier League, they will need their big players to perform for them on a regular basis. As I mentioned, of their new signings, Steven Caulker will provide the steel in the defence, and will be the basis for many of the clean sheets they keep. The ex-Tottenham man is also a danger from set pieces at the other end, and may well pop up with a goal or two to steer the Bluebirds away from trouble.
Further forward, the passion and drive of their captain, hometown boy Craig Bellamy, will also be vital in ensuring they retain their Premier League status next year. His fiery nature tends to get him into trouble, but will also prove an inspiration to those around him, especially the younger players. He was the backbone of the Cardiff City Championship winning campaign last time around, and will be integral to any success the Bluebirds have this time around.
Key Fixture Dates:
(Based on derbies and who I consider to be their rivals)
14/09/2013: Hull vs Cardiff
26/10/2013: Norwich vs Cardiff
03/11/2013: Cardiff vs Swansea
04/12/2013: Stoke vs Cardiff
07/12/2013: Crystal Palace vs Cardiff
01/02/2014: Cardiff vs Norwich
08/02/2014: Swansea vs Cardiff
22/02/2014: Cardiff vs Hull
05/04/2014: Cardiff vs Crystal Palace
19/04/2014: Cardiff vs Stoke
Top Goalscorer:
Unfortunately for Cardiff, whilst Craig Bellamy will provide you running all day long, and will lay on a hatful of chances, he is unlikely to be the man to stick them away. Peter Whittingham, at times prolific in the Championship, I feel will be unable to exploit the same amount of space a division above. This is why I feel the honour of top goalscorer will fall onto the shoulders of one of either Andreas Cornelius, Fraizer Campbell or Nicky Maynard. I'm going to go with Cornelius. His European experience, strength and power will be assets in this league, and after a settling in period, I do fancy him to start putting a few away. However, I would be surprised if he got into double figures in the league.
Prediction:
With the money that their Malaysian owners have spent on players this summer, the expectation will very much be that the Bluebirds will escape the drop this time around. Unfortunately, with expectation comes pressure, a pressure not felt by many of their rivals. A team getting used to the transition to the Premier League does not need additional pressure heaped onto their shoulders. Ultimately, despite the emergence of a few Premier League class players, Cardiff's squad is not deep or experienced enough to survive this season. The English top flight may be 10% Welsh now, but I wonder how long that will be the case. I would be surprised if it were any longer than a year.
Cardiff City 2013/2014: 19th
Player(s) In: Gary Medel (Sevilla, £11 Million), Steven Caulker (Tottenham, £8 Million), Andreas Cornelius (FC Copenhagen, £7.5 Million), Simon Moore (Brentford, Undisc), John Brayford (Derby County, £2 Million), Maximiliano Amondarain (Nacional Montevideo, Free), Kevin Theophile-Catherine (Rennes, £2.5 Million), Peter Odemwingie (West Bromwich Albion, £2.9 Million)
Player(s) Out: Heidar Helguson (Retired), Robbie Earnshaw (Released)
Transfers Review:
As Cardiff did not participate in last year's Premier League, I do not have a season review to compare my predictions to, as I have done with my previous blog posts. However, Cardiff have been very active in this transfer window, particularly with incomings, which should give me plenty to talk about. Having repeatedly shattered their transfer record (firstly for Cornelius, then Caulker, and finally Medel), Cardiff have made their spending power abundantly clear to the rest of those hoping to avoid relegation. In Steven Caulker in particular, the Bluebirds have a player that has proven himself at Premier League level with Tottenham, and I believe will be a valuable member of the first team squad. The other big money signings will undoubtedly play a part, but I feel that they may take some time to bed into the squad and get used to the physicality of the Premier League. Cornelius looks a powerful centre-forward, and I think he will contribute with many of Cardiff's goals this season.
Another pleasing aspect for Cardiff fans is that, as well as making several valuable additions to the squad, they have also managed to maintain the majority of their title-winning squad from last year. Of the playing squad, only Earnshaw and Helguson have departed, leaving a wealth of talent, many of whom will make the necessary step up from Championship to Premier League football. However, whether that will be sufficient to keep the Bluebirds in the top flight, only time will tell.
Pre-Season:
With the prospect of being back in the Premier League after over a decade of absence, I would have expected Cardiff to play as many friendly matches as possible, in order to prepare their players, and to gel their new recruits. Malky Mackay obviously agreed with these sentiments, and scheduled 5 pre-season matches. Even more encouragingly for the Bluebirds, of those 5, they lost just one, and had two positive victories. Beginning with an enthralling 4-3 win over Forest Green, Cardiff then suffered two disappointing results as youth players were tested and the new signings were given time to bed into the squad. A 1-1 draw with Cheltenham was followed by a 3-2 defeat against Brentford. However, this would prove to be their last failure.
August's two games would provide optimism for the Cardiff fans, suggesting that many of their players may have what it takes to make the step up to the Premier League. Firstly, a 1-0 win over Italian Serie A side Chievo Verona, where striker Kim Bo Kyung gave Malky Mackay's side a morale boosting win. Further was to follow, as Cardiff dispensed of La Liga side Athletic Bilbao. The Spanish side, who made the Europa League final 2 years ago, fell 2-0 down to goals from Whittingham and Campbell, before Iraola pulled on back. But the Bluebirds held on to record a morale boosting victory over a European-quality side. Performing in this manner on a regular basis will be the challenge for Mackay's side.
Key Players:
If Cardiff are to succeed on their return to the Premier League, they will need their big players to perform for them on a regular basis. As I mentioned, of their new signings, Steven Caulker will provide the steel in the defence, and will be the basis for many of the clean sheets they keep. The ex-Tottenham man is also a danger from set pieces at the other end, and may well pop up with a goal or two to steer the Bluebirds away from trouble.
Further forward, the passion and drive of their captain, hometown boy Craig Bellamy, will also be vital in ensuring they retain their Premier League status next year. His fiery nature tends to get him into trouble, but will also prove an inspiration to those around him, especially the younger players. He was the backbone of the Cardiff City Championship winning campaign last time around, and will be integral to any success the Bluebirds have this time around.
Key Fixture Dates:
(Based on derbies and who I consider to be their rivals)
14/09/2013: Hull vs Cardiff
26/10/2013: Norwich vs Cardiff
03/11/2013: Cardiff vs Swansea
04/12/2013: Stoke vs Cardiff
07/12/2013: Crystal Palace vs Cardiff
01/02/2014: Cardiff vs Norwich
08/02/2014: Swansea vs Cardiff
22/02/2014: Cardiff vs Hull
05/04/2014: Cardiff vs Crystal Palace
19/04/2014: Cardiff vs Stoke
Top Goalscorer:
Unfortunately for Cardiff, whilst Craig Bellamy will provide you running all day long, and will lay on a hatful of chances, he is unlikely to be the man to stick them away. Peter Whittingham, at times prolific in the Championship, I feel will be unable to exploit the same amount of space a division above. This is why I feel the honour of top goalscorer will fall onto the shoulders of one of either Andreas Cornelius, Fraizer Campbell or Nicky Maynard. I'm going to go with Cornelius. His European experience, strength and power will be assets in this league, and after a settling in period, I do fancy him to start putting a few away. However, I would be surprised if he got into double figures in the league.
Prediction:
With the money that their Malaysian owners have spent on players this summer, the expectation will very much be that the Bluebirds will escape the drop this time around. Unfortunately, with expectation comes pressure, a pressure not felt by many of their rivals. A team getting used to the transition to the Premier League does not need additional pressure heaped onto their shoulders. Ultimately, despite the emergence of a few Premier League class players, Cardiff's squad is not deep or experienced enough to survive this season. The English top flight may be 10% Welsh now, but I wonder how long that will be the case. I would be surprised if it were any longer than a year.
Cardiff City 2013/2014: 19th
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