PL 16/17 Predictions Series: West Bromwich Albion

My new series looks at the participants of the latest Premier League season. For previous posts, see below:

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Everton, Hull City, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, Watford

Last season
Typically solid if unspectacular from a Tony Pulis team, with the Baggies now casting away the shackles of their 'boing boing' stereotype for a more neatly fitting mid-table mediocrity tag. I'm honestly not sure which one is worse from a fan's perspective!

That being said, there can be no doubt that West Brom were difficult to beat at The Hawthorns, ensuring a safe 14th place finish, despite continuous speculation surrounding the future of Saido Berahino.

Backroom setup
Unsurprisingly, Tony Pulis has been retained as manager, and if his record is anything to go by, that practically guarantees Premier League survival. No other significant changes have been made behind the scenes, meaning that the Baggies can enter into the season in some level of stability.

Pre-season
Unlike many of their closest rivals, West Brom have opted for a fairly challenging run of pre-season matches, starting with a game against French champions Paris Saint Germain. While they may have been on the end of a 2-1 defeat, it was by no means embarrassing, and Pulis will take heart from the performance.

Two 2-1 wins then swiftly followed, over opponents of varying quality. Firstly, a brace from Berahino saw Kidderminster Harriers downed, before a more impressive win over Eredivisie side Vitesse Arnhem, with Rondon and McManaman on the scoresheet. However, this form could not continue, with a pair of disappointing results over teams in the lower leagues. First came a 0-0 draw with Plymouth, before a 2-1 reverse at Torquay United dented any momentum coming into the season. 

Squad and signings
It's almost business as usual in the Midlands, with the squad largely the same as last year. However, much discussion has been had about the future of young striker Berahino, while the club also released ex-first teamers Stephane Sessegnon, Victor Anichebe and Anders Lindegaard to remove some of the wage strain.

There's not been much action inward either. The Baggies only have the signing of QPR winger Matt Phillips for £5.5m to show for their actions, and in all honesty, they've barely been linked with anyone else for the remainder of the window. Can the team that kept them up last year do the same again this term?

Tactics
It's Tony Pulis, so you know what's coming, and it isn't going to be sparkling football. Expect more long balls to Salomon Rondon's head or chest, as well as physical play in both the centre of midfield and defence to make them a difficult side to beat at home.

Predictions

He'll keep them up. It's just what he does. It's the same team, so I'm going to go with the same placing as last year. With the likes of Southampton, West Ham and Leicester all sparking moves up the table, when will a lower mid-table finish get boring for the Baggies fans, I wonder?

Final position: 14th

Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?

As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.

Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.

Team	Manager Out (Games)	PPG	Manager In (Games)	PPG
Cardiff City	Malky Mackay (18)	0.94	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15)	0.8
Crystal Palace	Ian Holloway (8)	0.38	Tony Pulis (24)	1.63
Fulham	Martin Jol (13)	0.77	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77
Fulham	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77	Felix Magath (9)	1.11
Norwich City	Chris Hughton (32)	0.97	Neil Adams (3)	0
Swansea City	Michael Laudrup (24)	1	Garry Monk (11)	1.09
Sunderland	Paolo di Canio (5)	0.2	Gus Poyet (27)	1.04
Tottenham Hotspur	Andre Villas Boas (16)	1.69	Tim Sherwood (19)	1.89
West Bromwich Albion	Steve Clarke (16)	0.94	Pepe Mel (13)	0.92

From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.

So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:

Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)

As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.

So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.

Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.

The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.

It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.

As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.

Cardiff's Complaint: Does James Bond Wear A Baseball Cap?

Well, the season just got strange. Rumours of underhand tactics and espionage have engulfed the Premier League in the last few days, with Cardiff manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer accusing Crystal Palace, and indirectly Tony Pulis, of stealing information that led to his side's embarrassing 3-0 home defeat at the hands of their then-relegation rivals. With an official complaint now hanging over the London club, this saga threatens to rumble on long into the summer, and that is the last thing football needs. I must start this with a disclaimer - below are my opinions. I have little to no facts about this case, and this piece is merely to explain my take on the story as it has emerged in the press thus far.

The last time I remember an espionage saga in sport, it took several months for an independent commission to check, double and triple check whether McLaren had stolen confidential information from their Ferrari rivals in the F1 championship in 2007. Very much like I think this will, it ended up ruining an extremely competitive season, tarring all teams with the same brush and casting a shadow of doubt on the whole sport.

However, do Crystal Palace and Tony Pulis have a case to answer? Cardiff allege that Iain Moody, Crystal Palace's sporting director, and a former director of recruitment at the Welsh club, phoned a former colleague, performance analyst Enda Barron, on 3rd April to ask if he could help him obtain the team for the match against Palace. The day before the match (4th April), Moody had apparently been able to obtain the starting line-up from another source. Though Moody and Barron directly deny any and all allegations, the evidence has begun to stack up.

Here is where Tony Pulis comes in. In a subsequent conversation between Moody and Barron, the Cardiff director was apparently overheard saying that he was 'under pressure from Pulis' to obtain the information. After this, more and more people continue to get sucked in, with Bolton boss Dougie Freedman and Cardiff player Aron Gunnarsson also playing bit-parts. Pulis has also been accused of referencing the incident in a chat between the two managers after the game, putting ever more pressure on the ex-Stoke man's shoulders.

In my opinion, there are two options over this case. Either there are too many coincidences to clear Crystal Palace and Pulis, implying that Crystal Palace could be in very serious breach of some of the FA's most important rules. However, the second option, which panders to my more cynical part, thinks that there are too many coincidences to be believable as guilt. Surely no-one can be as stupid as Cardiff are alleging, which implies an act of desperation from the Bluebirds' hierarchy to try and drag themselves out of the predicament they find themselves in.

While this latter option may seem unlikely, it is possible. As I stated, Moody discussing his scheme loudly enough to be overheard is about as idiotic as Al Qaeda making plans for their next attack in front of CCTV cameras or US presidents talking about phone tapping in a recorded conversation (that last one may not be such a good example...). Nevertheless, if we are expected to believe that this was Moody's first dip into the ocean of footballing espionage, mid-way through a season where his side were on a distinct upturn and heading away from danger, along with making several high profile and idiotic mistakes in the process, I'm not really buying it. If Moody has been doing this, he has probably been doing it for some time, which means he should be much better at covering his back than the evidence presented by Cardiff suggests.

Not that I am condoning this sort of practice. If it does occur, which I have little reason to doubt that it does, it is despicable, and brings the sport into disrepute. However, despite the old saying of 'never underestimate the stupidity of criminals', these are not stupid people being caught stealing DVDs from a shop. These are highly educated professionals, and one would expect that they would put considerably more time into the planning and execution of these actions than the allegations suggest.

However, one piece of evidence does appear particularly damning. Should it exist, the text message with the exact Cardiff first 11, which included three changes from the Bluebirds side that faced West Brom the week before, suggests that a real and genuine attempt has been made to obtain the information. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that this text message is real, and that someone tried to get hold of it, but to hear about all these shady but appallingly insecure meetings makes the story less believable to me.

Despite being a City fan, I have always found Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to be a genuine bloke, and my cynical explanation is not in keeping with his character. While this makes me doubt myself, from what I have heard, Vincent Tan's character is not so squeaky clean. The way that he conducts business, particularly the sacking of Malky Mackay, has been wrong, and it would not surprise me to find that he has been responsible for the 'sexing-up' of these allegations, in order to ensure that his side remains a Premier League club (and earns a rather hefty paycheck at the end of it!). Again, I must stress these are not direct allegations (before I get a chunky lawsuit!). I would rather be painted as a fantasist and a conspiracy theorist - I am merely trying to point out a) alternative explanations and b) demonstrate the cynical way my brain works.

So does James Bond wear a baseball cap? I don't know. I have no doubt that this story will run and run for months, tainting an otherwise brilliant season. It is a practice that should never occur, and if Palace are proven to be guilty, I would want to see them punished in the highest regard. If they have been the victims of a set up, however, I would expect Cardiff to receive a correspondingly high punishment.