Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.
This third and final post in the series focuses on the battle to avoid the dreaded drop to the Championship. As I am looking at 7 different teams, this post will be a little less in depth than the other two, but hopefully just as informative and interesting. To find the other posts, click on the links below:
Title race
Champions League battle
First 5:
In my post nine months ago, I said that the relegation battle will involve the most teams, with a range of 7 potentially involved. Having looked at the opening fixtures of the teams involved, I picked my bottom part of the table to be: Newcastle, Sunderland, Hull, Stoke, Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Aston Villa. After surprise results like Aston Villa's victory over Arsenal and Cardiff's win at home to Manchester City, this is how the bottom of the table lined up after five fixtures:
West Brom - 5pts (14th), West Ham - 5pts (15th), Cardiff - 5pts (16th), Norwich - 4pts (17th), Fulham - 4pts (18th), Crystal Palace - 3pts (19th) and Sunderland - 1pt (20th)
So basically, I was way off. I didn't even factor in West Brom, West Ham, Norwich or Fulham on the fixtures, meaning that Stoke (10th), Hull (11th) Newcastle (12th) and most surprisingly Aston Villa (13th) were not even in the list. Despite this, five games can help someone's season, but it cannot decide whether they stay up and go down (until you get to the final five of course!). As a result, I was not too concerned with my lack of accuracy, but the second check would perhaps give us a better indication of how wrong I was!
Middle 5:
The middle 5 (taken between the dates of 14th December and 1st January - the most congested period of the season) would hopefully provide me with an opportunity to reclaim some lost pride. Taken purely on these 5 fixtures, I came up with a mini table to show which teams will take the most points from this period. This would contribute to the table, but would not necessarily indicate who is destined for the drop. Based on the fixtures, I predicted that the mini table of 7 would look like this: Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Hull and Crystal Palace. In reality, it looked like this:
Newcastle (7pts), Sunderland (6pts), Hull (5pts), Stoke (5pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Crystal Palace (4pts)
Again, I was wrong. Though in my defence, not quite as badly wrong as I had initially been. Of the bottom three, I accurately predicted two, and managed to suggest that the two North East clubs would be well away from danger when the time came. Nevertheless, if we look at the table as a whole by the time we get to New Year's Day, we see a wholly different complexion: West Brom - 21pts (14th), Norwich - 20pts (15th), Fulham - 19pts (16th), Cardiff - 18pts (17th), Crystal Palace - 17pts (18th), West Ham - 15pts (19th), Sunderland - 14pts (20th). Whether this means my test is not as accurate as those for the Champions League or the title race (although read those to see the issues I have had!), I am not sure, but certainly it is some way from my initial expectations at the beginning of the season.
So what happened since?
Well, a lot. Two of the bottom three at that time ended completely safe and free of danger, with Crystal Palace pulling off a master stroke in hiring Tony Pulis (whose appointment I actually disagreed with at the time but shhhhh!) and West Ham relying on Big Sam Allardyce to get them out of it, which he duly did. Sunderland pulled off the greatest of great escapes, with the 2-2 draw at the Etihad, sparking the most incredible of results. Away wins at Chelsea and Manchester United, along with a home success against West Brom ensured that the Black Cats steered themselves out of what seemed an impossible situation with one match to spare. With Fulham and Cardiff unable to drag themselves from their hole (meaning that Felix Magath suffered his first relegation as a manager), it was Norwich that bore the brunt of the Sunderland escape. Their incredibly tough end to the season ultimately condemned them to the Championship, but it was the lack of fight in games involving sides around them that cost the Canaries their place in the top tier.
In the final five fixtures, I expected this to be the mini league table: Stoke, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland and Newcastle. However, incredible runs for Sunderland and Crystal Palace meant it ended like this:
Sunderland (12pts), Crystal Palace (8pts), Stoke City (7pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Newcastle (3pts), Hull (1pt)
And my prediction?
Overall, I predicted that all three of the promoted sides would return to the Championship based on the fixtures. However, it is almost never that this actually occurs, and this is another example. Crystal Palace's inspired managerial alteration kept them clear of danger, whilst Hull's consistency ensured that they would have a cup final day, along with a Premier League place to treasure. Other than Cardiff, I didn't even include the two sides that ended up going down, as I believed them to be relatively safe!
Final table: Newcastle - 49pts (10th), Crystal Palace - 45pts (11th), Sunderland - 38pts (14th), Aston Villa - 38pts (15th), Hull - 37pts (16th), Cardiff - 30pts (20th)
So in the end, an interesting, but inconsistent test. Fixtures are a good indicator of form, which is a good indicator of performance, but it doesn't always work out like that. With external affairs able to alter that in the flip of a switch (the ownership debacle at Leeds is the perfect example of this), there is only so much that looking at the fixtures can do. Nevertheless, it does go to show that whilst the fixture organisers attempt to be objective and unbiased, they inevitably disadvantage some teams more than others.
Analysis of sporting events, talking points and controversies.
Showing posts with label Fulham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fulham. Show all posts
Sunday, 18 May 2014
Saturday, 26 April 2014
Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?
As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.
Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.
From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.
So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:
Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)
As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.
So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.
Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.
The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.
It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.
As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.
Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.
| Team | Manager Out (Games) | PPG | Manager In (Games) | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City | Malky Mackay (18) | 0.94 | Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15) | 0.8 |
| Crystal Palace | Ian Holloway (8) | 0.38 | Tony Pulis (24) | 1.63 |
| Fulham | Martin Jol (13) | 0.77 | Rene Meulensteen (13) | 0.77 |
| Fulham | Rene Meulensteen (13) | 0.77 | Felix Magath (9) | 1.11 |
| Norwich City | Chris Hughton (32) | 0.97 | Neil Adams (3) | 0 |
| Swansea City | Michael Laudrup (24) | 1 | Garry Monk (11) | 1.09 |
| Sunderland | Paolo di Canio (5) | 0.2 | Gus Poyet (27) | 1.04 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Andre Villas Boas (16) | 1.69 | Tim Sherwood (19) | 1.89 |
| West Bromwich Albion | Steve Clarke (16) | 0.94 | Pepe Mel (13) | 0.92 |
From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.
So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:
Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)
As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.
So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.
Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.
The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.
It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.
As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.
Tuesday, 13 August 2013
Fulham: Another Season of Mid-Table Discontent?
2012/2013: 12th
Transfer(s) In: Adel Taarabt (QPR, Loan), Maarten Stekelenburg (AS Roma, Undisc), Fernando Amorebieta (Athletic Bilbao, Undisc), Ange-Freddy Plumain (RC Lens, Free), Derek Boateng (Dnipro, Free), Sascha Riether (FC Koln, Undisc), Scott Parker (Tottenham, Undisc), Darren Bent (Aston Villa, Loan), Scott Parker (Tottenham Hotspur, £4 Million), Elsad Zverotic (Young Boys Bern, £0.25 Million)
Transfer(s) Out: Alex Kacaniklic (Burnley, Loan), Chris Baird, Simon Davies, Mladen Petric, Mark Schwarzer, Mahamadou Diarra (All Released)
Transfers Review:
Fulham's transfers indicate a move forward from the usual 'selling club' status that they are given. With big names leaving almost every season, with the likes of Dempsey and Dembele leaving in recent years, this tended to be the key to why Fulham have remained in vastly the same position in the Premier League over the last few years. This season appears to have broken that pattern, with the key names from the last season, such as Dimitar Berbatov, remaining at Craven Cottage.
They have also added a few top-quality players to the ranks, with the likes of Roma's Maarten Stekelenburg and Bilbao's Fernando Amorebieta their most high profile additions. By adding QPR's enigmatic playmaker to their squad, they have improved both their defence and their midfield, in order to aid the often isolated Berbatov. In Plumain and Riether, they have also invested in the future, so that when others are sold, or retire, they have strength in depth.
If we compare the actual transfers to my predictions at the end of last season, we see that I suggested that a more defensive-minded midfielder may be needed to break up the play and aid the flair players. In Derek Boateng, they have certainly signed someone of that ilk. In truth, Fulham have strengthened almost every area of the squad. This is a very impressive feat when you have only signed half a dozen players. They will be hoping that these signings will propel them to a top half finish, and that maybe they can be the West Brom of 2013/2014.
Pre-Season:
Fulham's pre-season started with a tour of Costa Rica, in which they took part in three exhibition matches. In all, Fulham dominated the match, winning against Cartigines by 3 goals to 0, before beating Alajuelense 3-1, and finishing their tour with a 5-3 victory on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Moving back to the UK, Fulham played two further matches, both against considerably more difficult opposition.
Beginning with Real Betis, Fulham started their run to the start of the Premier League season. After a Steve Sidwell goal in the 13th minute, Betis levelled after 55 minutes, as Igiebor rolled the ball home from close-range. Fulham dominated proceedings, continue to amass chances, and having a penalty claim turned down and a goal disallowed before the end of the game. But the score stayed the same, and despite a positive performance, Fulham were denied a winning return. They finished their pre-season with a game against Parma, and once again, Steve Sidwell opened the scoring after just 10 minutes. But the Cottagers' performance levels dropped as the match wore on, with Amauri only being denied a leveler by the offside flag, and Marco Parolo rattled the crossbar. After the interval, the Italians did not have to wait long before equalising, with Gabriel Palletta heading home just before the hour mark. As the game dragged on, the Serie A team bcame the more likely to score, until eventually, Fulham hearts were broken. Nicola Sansone latched onto a knock-down to fire home the winner four minutes from time, to end Fulham's pre-season in the worst possible manner.
Key Players:
With Mark Schwarzer leaving the Cottage for the Bridge this summer, a goalkeeper was needed. Here, Martin Jol pulled off a master-stroke, bringing in Holland international Maarten Stekelenburg. The Dutchman has proven his worth in just the pre-season friendlies, and I feel will be vital to Fulham's push for a top 10 finish. He has excellent reflexes, and has fantastic experience of both continental and international competition, having travelled and performed in a World Cup Final.
In order to succeed, not conceding is only half the battle, with scoring the other half. Dimitar Berbatov will continue to be an integral part of Fulham's team, and his goals will propel them up the table. He can at times seem disinterested and petulant, but every now and then he has moments of genius, that can often be the winner of valuable points.
Key Fixture Dates:
17/08/2013: Sunderland vs Fulham
31/08/2013: Newcastle vs Fulham
21/09/2013: Chelsea vs Fulham
26/10/2013: Southampton vs Fulham
30/11/2013: West Ham United vs Fulham
07/12/2013: Fulham vs Aston Villa
01/01/2014: Fulham vs West Ham United
11/01/2014: Fulham vs Sunderland
01/02/2014: Fulham vs Southampton
01/03/2014: Fulham vs Chelsea
15/03/2014: Fulham vs Newcastle
05/04/2014: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Top Goalscorer:
Just like last season, I see Dimitar Berbatov leading the line for the Cottagers. If he goes through one of his lean periods, Darren Bent will chip in, but I fear for Fulham's success, as they have very little in the way of alternatives. Whilst I cannot see him being up with the top scorers in the league, I certainly see him retaining his Fulham top goalscorer tag this campaign.
Prediction:
Fulham's team certainly now has the names to challenge for a top 10 finish, but it is the strength in depth that worries me about them. As much as I would like to see them get back to their former glories (the Europa League final a few years ago), I think that this will be a year of transition, and building the squad. Any injury to Dimitar Berbatov practically stops their goal threat, and I think that it is this that will consign them to another season in mid-table. If they manage to add further strength in January or next summer, then I feel they can compete higher up.
Fulham 2013/2014: 14th
Transfer(s) In: Adel Taarabt (QPR, Loan), Maarten Stekelenburg (AS Roma, Undisc), Fernando Amorebieta (Athletic Bilbao, Undisc), Ange-Freddy Plumain (RC Lens, Free), Derek Boateng (Dnipro, Free), Sascha Riether (FC Koln, Undisc), Scott Parker (Tottenham, Undisc), Darren Bent (Aston Villa, Loan), Scott Parker (Tottenham Hotspur, £4 Million), Elsad Zverotic (Young Boys Bern, £0.25 Million)
Transfer(s) Out: Alex Kacaniklic (Burnley, Loan), Chris Baird, Simon Davies, Mladen Petric, Mark Schwarzer, Mahamadou Diarra (All Released)
Transfers Review:
Fulham's transfers indicate a move forward from the usual 'selling club' status that they are given. With big names leaving almost every season, with the likes of Dempsey and Dembele leaving in recent years, this tended to be the key to why Fulham have remained in vastly the same position in the Premier League over the last few years. This season appears to have broken that pattern, with the key names from the last season, such as Dimitar Berbatov, remaining at Craven Cottage.
They have also added a few top-quality players to the ranks, with the likes of Roma's Maarten Stekelenburg and Bilbao's Fernando Amorebieta their most high profile additions. By adding QPR's enigmatic playmaker to their squad, they have improved both their defence and their midfield, in order to aid the often isolated Berbatov. In Plumain and Riether, they have also invested in the future, so that when others are sold, or retire, they have strength in depth.
If we compare the actual transfers to my predictions at the end of last season, we see that I suggested that a more defensive-minded midfielder may be needed to break up the play and aid the flair players. In Derek Boateng, they have certainly signed someone of that ilk. In truth, Fulham have strengthened almost every area of the squad. This is a very impressive feat when you have only signed half a dozen players. They will be hoping that these signings will propel them to a top half finish, and that maybe they can be the West Brom of 2013/2014.
Pre-Season:
Fulham's pre-season started with a tour of Costa Rica, in which they took part in three exhibition matches. In all, Fulham dominated the match, winning against Cartigines by 3 goals to 0, before beating Alajuelense 3-1, and finishing their tour with a 5-3 victory on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Moving back to the UK, Fulham played two further matches, both against considerably more difficult opposition.
Beginning with Real Betis, Fulham started their run to the start of the Premier League season. After a Steve Sidwell goal in the 13th minute, Betis levelled after 55 minutes, as Igiebor rolled the ball home from close-range. Fulham dominated proceedings, continue to amass chances, and having a penalty claim turned down and a goal disallowed before the end of the game. But the score stayed the same, and despite a positive performance, Fulham were denied a winning return. They finished their pre-season with a game against Parma, and once again, Steve Sidwell opened the scoring after just 10 minutes. But the Cottagers' performance levels dropped as the match wore on, with Amauri only being denied a leveler by the offside flag, and Marco Parolo rattled the crossbar. After the interval, the Italians did not have to wait long before equalising, with Gabriel Palletta heading home just before the hour mark. As the game dragged on, the Serie A team bcame the more likely to score, until eventually, Fulham hearts were broken. Nicola Sansone latched onto a knock-down to fire home the winner four minutes from time, to end Fulham's pre-season in the worst possible manner.
Key Players:
With Mark Schwarzer leaving the Cottage for the Bridge this summer, a goalkeeper was needed. Here, Martin Jol pulled off a master-stroke, bringing in Holland international Maarten Stekelenburg. The Dutchman has proven his worth in just the pre-season friendlies, and I feel will be vital to Fulham's push for a top 10 finish. He has excellent reflexes, and has fantastic experience of both continental and international competition, having travelled and performed in a World Cup Final.
In order to succeed, not conceding is only half the battle, with scoring the other half. Dimitar Berbatov will continue to be an integral part of Fulham's team, and his goals will propel them up the table. He can at times seem disinterested and petulant, but every now and then he has moments of genius, that can often be the winner of valuable points.
Key Fixture Dates:
17/08/2013: Sunderland vs Fulham
31/08/2013: Newcastle vs Fulham
21/09/2013: Chelsea vs Fulham
26/10/2013: Southampton vs Fulham
30/11/2013: West Ham United vs Fulham
07/12/2013: Fulham vs Aston Villa
01/01/2014: Fulham vs West Ham United
11/01/2014: Fulham vs Sunderland
01/02/2014: Fulham vs Southampton
01/03/2014: Fulham vs Chelsea
15/03/2014: Fulham vs Newcastle
05/04/2014: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Top Goalscorer:
Just like last season, I see Dimitar Berbatov leading the line for the Cottagers. If he goes through one of his lean periods, Darren Bent will chip in, but I fear for Fulham's success, as they have very little in the way of alternatives. Whilst I cannot see him being up with the top scorers in the league, I certainly see him retaining his Fulham top goalscorer tag this campaign.
Prediction:
Fulham's team certainly now has the names to challenge for a top 10 finish, but it is the strength in depth that worries me about them. As much as I would like to see them get back to their former glories (the Europa League final a few years ago), I think that this will be a year of transition, and building the squad. Any injury to Dimitar Berbatov practically stops their goal threat, and I think that it is this that will consign them to another season in mid-table. If they manage to add further strength in January or next summer, then I feel they can compete higher up.
Fulham 2013/2014: 14th
Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Fulham: Comfortable Safety or Mid-Table Mediocrity?
2012/2013 Season
Review:
Fulham
began the season with what appeared to be one of the signings of the summer. At
£3.5 million, Dimitar Berbatov seemed an inspired acquisition, and after a long
spell warming the Manchester United bench, Fulham gave him a chance for first
team football. The Londoners started the season with a bang, with a
comprehensive 5-0 victory over Norwich on the opening day, putting them top
(albeit only thanks to alphabetical order). A narrow defeat to Manchester
United and a disappointing exit of the Capital One Cup to Sheffield Wednesday
followed, but Fulham remained consistent throughout September, winning 2 and
losing 2. The start to the season already indicated to many what they knew to
be true, that Fulham were in no danger of relegation or qualifying for Europe
this season.
Significant
transfer losses on deadline day certainly did little to aid Fulham’s push for a
top 10 place, with both Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey departing across the
city to Spurs. Draws away at relegation candidates Reading and Southampton
perhaps suggest their departure had an impact, however, subsequent draws
against Everton and at the Emirates tends to imply no such pattern. The vast
majority of Fulham games were relatively low scoring, and often decided by just
a single goal either way. Dimitar Berbatov at times gave us glimpses of his
past glories, but all too often he cut his usual disinterested and sulky
figure, leaving Fulham rather toothless going forward.
Unlike
most Premier League sides, Fulham performed vastly as we would have expected
them to this season, with little in the way of shock victories or surprise
defeats. Draws away at Arsenal and Chelsea before the turn of the year, and a
later victory at White Hart Lane, is all that really should be considered
surprising in terms of results. Like Everton, Fulham mostly steered clear of
controversy, rarely making the back pages with either their performances or off
field antics.
The
second half of the season remained practically identical to the first, with
Fulham winning the majority of home games they would expect to, and drawing and
losing the majority of games against the top sides in the league. At the turn
of the year, Fulham’s away form seemed to be the area which needed the most
improvement, as they only managed 1 win in 10 away league matches up to that
point. A New Years Day victory away at high-flying West Brom seemed to be just
the tonic that was required. However, soon they fell back into the same
pattern, winning only 1 of 7 away games up to April, including an FA Cup Fourth
Round exit at the hands of Manchester United.
Normally,
Fulham’s home form had been consistently good enough to keep them out of
trouble. However, such was the competitive nature of the relegation battle this
season, that a small dip in form could see the ordinarily considered safe
Fulham dragged back into the relegation picture. Unfortunately for the Whites,
they picked the wrong time to go off the boil at home. Despite having reached
the 40 point mark, home defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea left Fulham fans looking
nervously over their shoulders for the final few games. Whilst these results
are not particularly surprising given the relative strength of the sides
involved, it certainly did both their survival aspirations, and their nerves,
very little good. Even worse for Fulham, they lost the following three league
games. Fortunately, their fellow relegation rivals failed to capitalise on
Fulham’s slip-ups, and their position in the Premier League was mathematically assured
with a couple of weeks to go. A final day comprehensive 3-0 away win over
Swansea will have sent the fans home happy, albeit in 12th place and
just 7 points from relegation.
Overall,
Fulham’s season has been a relatively quiet one. Despite a little last minute
panicking, it was never really foreseeable that Fulham would be relegated this
season. Expectations at the beginning of the season may have been to break into
the top 10, but their away form continues to plague them. Without an
improvement, I fear that Fulham could find themselves in deeper trouble in the
coming years.
Player of the Season:
Dimitar Berbatov – The enigmatic Bulgarian can, on his day, be the
difference between 3 points and nothing. We saw clear evidence of his talent in
his technique for some of his goals this season. He does appear distant and
disinterested at times, and Fulham need him to be at his best more often. But
for £3.5 million, a good bargain for Martin Jol, and he repaid his faith with
vital goals.
Game of the Season: Fulham
3-2 QPR – The game that, in hindsight, practically sewed up Fulham’s Premier
League survival, and illustrated the majority of Fulham’s season. A first half
where Fulham dominated, scoring thrice (albeit with a little help from Clint
Hill and Chris Samba), showing all that is good about Fulham’s game. Then, a
self-destructive second half, allowing QPR to reclaim some momentum, scoring
twice within six minutes to put the game on a knife-edge. Should have been
comfortable, ended up nervy. That sums up Fulham’s season perfectly.
Summer Transfer
Targets (What I Think They Need): In players like Berbatov, Bryan Ruiz, and
Mark Schwarzer, Fulham have a core of quality players that should see them into
the top 10. However, it is in central midfield where I perceive the most of the
problem to be. Steve Sidwell is good, but with little cover or support, Fulham
often find themselves overrun. Players such as QPR’s Stephane M’Bia or Celtic’s
Scott Brown would be perfect at breaking the play up before handing to more
flair players like Berbatov and Ruiz.
Transfer Gossip Links:
In:
Aleksandar Dragovic (FC Basle, RB), Yohan Mollo (AS Nancy,
RW)
Out:
Dimitar Berbatov (Galatasaray), Giorgios
Karagounis (???, CM)
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