Wednesday 14 August 2013

Liverpool: Will The 'Suarez Saga' Wreck Their Chances?

2012/2013: 7th

Transfer(s) In: Simon Mignolet (Sunderland, £9 Million), Iago Aspas (Celta Vigo, £7 Million), Luis Alberto (Sevilla, Undisc), Kolo Toure (Manchester City, Free), Aly Cissoko (Valencia, Loan), Victor Moses (Chelsea, Loan), Tiago Ilori (Sporting Lisbon, £7 Million), Mahmadou Sakho (Paris Saint Germain, £18 Million)

Transfer(s) Out: Stuart Downing (West Ham United, £5 Million), Jay Spearing (Bolton Wanderers, Undisc), Pepe Reina (Napoli, Loan), Jonjo Shelvey (Swansea, £6 Million), Andy Carroll (West Ham United, £15 Million), Jamie Carragher (Retired)

Transfers Review:

                                           Liverpool have made several good additions to the squad this summer, with central defender Kolo Toure the first to be announced. With Martin Skrtel and Daniel Agger the only top defenders in the squad, the addition of the experienced member of the 'Invincibles' can only be positive. Mixing youth with experience, the signing of Luis Alberto is certainly one that was intended to replace the departing Jonjo Shelvey. Iago Aspas, the ex-Celta Vigo striker, will add valuable goals after an excellent season in La Liga last term. Another crucial signing was Simon Mignolet. The young goalkeeper has proven his ability at Sunderland, and I feel will go on to become one of Europe's top keepers in the next few years. They were relatively busy in the days leading up to the deadline, with three further incomings. Defenders Tiago Ilori and Mahmadou Sakho will be very useful signings, and Victor Moses will provide a little more creativity down the wings. If we look at my Liverpool season review post, in which I predicted their signings this summer, just a central defender was what I foresaw. In Kolo Toure they have that, and I suspect that their other signings will only push them to better performances this campaign.

                                              As much as their incomings are positive, they have also lost several members of the squad, members that were used at least semi-regularly last season. Jamie Carragher's decision to retire was not a surprise, but Liverpool will miss his experience and leadership in defence. Two promising youth prospects have also left the club this summer, with Jay Spearing and Jonjo Shelvey opting to join Bolton Wanderers and Swansea respectively. Whilst they may not have been regular starters, they certainly affect the strength and depth of the squad, which could take its toll later on. One fo the least surprising transfers was Andy Carroll's to West Ham. After a successful loan period last term, it came as little surprise that West Ham moved to make his move permanent. With Brendan Rodgers clearly illustrating that the big Geordie was surplus to requirements at Anfield, the striker knew that he would soon have to look elsewhere. With West Ham interested, the deal suited both parties. West Ham also made another signing from Liverpool, with Stuart Downing, who Sam Allardyce claimed was an unrealistic target just a few weeks ago, making the trip down to East London to sign for £5 Million. After his form improved drastically last campaign, I wonder if this was a good decision from the Northern Irish manager, as I feel Downing had more to give at Anfield.

                                                However, this transfer window has been beset by controversy for Liverpool, with their talismanic striker Luis Suarez making clear designs to leave the North West club. With regular links to Real Madrid, with the striker admitting that he wanted to join the Spanish side. As the transfer window rolled on, Arsenal became more and more interested in the Uruguayan, with Arsene Wenger a clear admirer of the striker. An initial offer of a reported £30 Million was rejected out of hand by Liverpool, before Arsenal attempted to unlock a clause in his contract with an offer of £40 Million and £1. Though the Gunners did not know it at the time, the clause only meant that Liverpool had to alert Suarez and allow him to talk to Arsenal, not that they had to release the Uruguayan. This pedantry has caused Suarez to become more and more disenchanted with Liverpool, making an increased number of clear statements about his intention to leave. This has culminated in Rodgers insisting that the striker has shown a 'lack of respect' to the club and forcing him to train alone. Whilst this is the most high-profile controversy, Pepe Reina's move to Napoli is another instance in which the club, and Rodgers in particular, has been accused of being disrespectful. Reina, on arrival in Italy, accused his manager of loaning him to the Serie A club without telling him, saying that he felt hurt and that he deserved better. This shows that there may be blame on both sides of the Suarez debate, but thankfully for Liverpool, the Uruguayan seems to have put this behind him. This could have had disastrous consequences for the North West club's season, as a disruptive part of the squad would inevitably have had an effect. As it is, the Reds will miss out on the striker for the opening 6 games of the season (the punishment for his bite on Branislav Ivanovic), but they will be glad to have his ability back at their disposal, and he may be valuable later on.

Pre-Season:

                                                   The 'Suarez saga' has seemingly not had any effect on the squad throughout the pre-season, as the Liverpool results indicate that it has actually brought them together as a unit. Liverpool started with a comfortable 4-0 victory away at Preston before embarking on a tour of Asia. During this tour, Liverpool won all three of their matches, without conceding a single goal. They began with a 2-0 win against the Indonesia All Stars, before a success by the same scoreline against Melbourne Victory, and finishing with a 3-0 victory against Thailand. Moving back to the UK, Liverpool also played three further fixtures.

                                                     They started their run to the Premier League season with a match against Greek side Olympiakos, in Steven Gerrard's testimonial. The England midfield is best known in Liverpool for 'that goal' against the Greeks in 2005, which set them on their way to the Champions League title. A 2-0 success in this game for the Scouser, after goals from Joe Allen and Jordan Henderson. A second game against Valerenga ended in a 4-1 victory for Liverpool, with goals from Aspas, Alberto, Sterling and Kelly. The Reds ended their pre-season preparations with a visit to Celtic. After a perfect pre-season that had seen them win 6 straight matches, Liverpool lost their final game 1-0, after a goal from Amino Balde. This was the worst possible way to end their preparations, especially after such a promising start.

Key Players:

                                                       I would say that a player that will be crucial to Liverpool's success is Phillipe Coutinho.  The little Brazilian impressed since his move to the North West in January 2013, creating multiple chances and goals for the strike partnership of Suarez and Daniel Sturridge. His form will continue this season, as his vision and passing ability will make him a valuable asset to Liverpool.

                                                        At the back, Martin Skrtel will have to be a rock in order to improve their defensive record over the last couple of seasons. Liverpool have had a tendency to concede soft goals, and this is something they will need to cut out if they are to try and challenge for one of the Champions League places.

Key Fixture Dates:

01/09/2013: Liverpool vs Manchester United
02/11/2013: Arsenal vs Liverpool
23/11/2013: Everton vs Liverpool
14/12/2013: Tottenham vs Liverpool
28/01/2014: Liverpool vs Everton
08/02/2014: Liverpool vs Arsenal
15/03/2014: Manchester United vs Liverpool
29/03/2014: Liverpool vs Tottenham

Top Goalscorer:

                                                          In my opinion, with the departure of Suarez seeming imminent, I feel that the man to take over his mantle is Daniel Sturridge. The ex-Manchester City and Chelsea man showed impressive form since his move to Liverpool, and I expect this to continue. His partnership with Coutinho flourished at Anfield, and their understanding of one another will only strengthen in the months to come. I do not believe that he will challenge the Golden Boot this season, but 15-20 goals is the best he can expect to achieve.

Prediction:

                                                            Liverpool will be aiming for a European spot this season, with the rather optimistic target of the top 4 being bandied about by many football commentators. I do not believe that Liverpool have returned to their glory days, nor do I feel that they have an adequately deep or strong squad to compete with the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal over the course of the whole season. I think that the best that they can expect is to leapfrog Everton into 6th this campaign. With stability finally seeming possible for Liverpool, it will need small steps back towards the Champions League spots, meaning that this season is too son for that.

Liverpool 2013/2014: 6th

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