Today was the day in which Europe's elite learnt their fate for the next few months of continental competition. For some, this was considerably more daunting than others. With the way in which the groups are determined, plenty of good sides end up with with groups far harder than others, which some people have argued is unfair. This post will explain the current way of determining the 'pots', and analyse its fairness based on the accusations made of it. I will then try and give another viable alternative to the current system, that could work out in a fairer way. Finally, I will examine the current season's groups, assessing the relative difficulty of them, and who is likely to progress.
If we begin with the way in which the groups are drawn, it is first important to explain some of the relevant terminology. The way European competitions are drawn is this: the sides are divided into four seeded 'pots'. Each group will have one team from each of the four 'pots'. Rules also dictate that teams from the same country cannot meet one another in the group stages, often leading to a set of complicated circumstances. However, the most complex of the issues is how the 'pots' are decided, that is, which teams are placed into which 'pots'. With the exception of the holders, who automatically go into pot 1, the way in which this is determined is by the 'European Club Coefficients'. This is calculated from two sets of data. The most important of these is the previous European results in each of the last 5 seasons. A team receives a number of points for qualifying for the Champions League group stage (4), and more for subsequent wins and draws whilst in the competition (2 and 1). Should the side reach the last 16, a further 5 points are added, and an extra point is added for every round they progress past that point. This contributes for 80% of the overall coefficient. The other 20% consists of the club's 'association coefficient', meaning that the league in which the side plays contributes to their overall coefficient. Combined, these create a system in which teams can be ranked and, from this, pots and subsequently groups are decided.
However, arguments have been raised that this system of determining groups is flawed and militates against up-and-coming clubs, whilst allowing established mediocre clubs to retain their status. There are several examples of this, and especially in recent years. Firstly, the treatment of Manchester City in the Champions League draw in comparison to their English counterparts. In both of their previous seasons in this competition, they have been awarded 'groups of death'. In their inaugural season, they faced the German giants and eventual finalists Bayern Munich, Italy's high-flying Napoli side and Spain's dangerous Villareal. Year 2, if anything, got even harder, pairing City with three fellow champions of their respective leagues. Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax is a ridiculously tough group, and one that may well have unfairly been dealt. Had that group occurred in City's first season, when they had zero European experience, and had only managed to finish 3rd in the Premier League, it would have been excusable. As a result we can write off the first season as an unfortunate by-product of their inexperience. However, after a year in which they narrowly missed out on qualification from the toughest group in the competition, and claimed their domestic league title, I think the second year group is absurd. If we compare their plight to the fortune that Arsenal usually receive, we see a startling contrast. Arsenal, although they have qualified for the Champions League every year for the last 15 years, have not threatened to win the competition in the 5 years measured by the coefficient. In terms of their league form, they have made a habit of scraping a 4th place finish in recent years. As league form is not taken into account, Arsenal are consistently placed in the 1st pot, ensuring that they receive a greater chance of progression from the group stages. I believe this is incredibly unfair, as it somewhat undermines the idea of 'Champions' League. If those who finish 4th are placed in a vastly easier group to the league champions, what is the point of winning the domestic competition?
In case you just think that this is a City fan out for a bit of a rant, I will cover a couple more examples. What this system appears to do is not account for who has the best team, and judge accordingly. I accept this would be incredibly difficult to do in a way that is not already covered. For example, good sides in poor leagues can often rest players in their domestic campaigns and still win, guaranteeing qualification for next season, and ensuring that the entirety of their focus is on getting out of their group. Sides like Ukraine's Shakhtar Donetsk typify this, as they were placed in Pot 2 this time around, despite most agreeing that most of Pot 3 were also better than the Eastern Europeans. In the last couple of years, Celtic have attempted this, with it coming to fruition last season. If we compare this with non-champion sides from highly competitive leagues, we see another unfair area. Looking at Napoli in particular, they were unable to rest any of their top players in their domestic league or the Champions League campaign of 2 years ago, inevitably taking its toll on one. For the side from Naples, this took its toll on their league form, meaning that they failed to qualify for the following year's competition. This has a disastrous effect on their coefficient, ensuring that they receive a far tougher group than the sides from easier leagues.
Finally, for those who are interested in conspiracy theories, or just really dislike Michel Platini (the second of which I probably fit into), there is another criticism of the system. As the coefficients are decided by UEFA themselves, which Platini heads, he arguably could be biased one way or another. Given his hypocrisies over the spending of English clubs whilst exonerating his own Paris Saint Germain side, it seems an odd coincidence that PSG, who have had minimal European experience over the last few years, and only reached the quarter-finals last time around, have moved into Pot 2 this season, whilst last-years finalists Borussia Dortmund, who also have a stronger European pedigree, remain stuck in Pot 3. Whether this is truly a sign of corruption, or simply an insufficient prize given to those that progress to the latter stages, it is difficult to tell. As much as I would like Platini to be dethroned and disgraced, I think that the system simply fails to adequately reward the semi finalists and finalists.
Looking at the system, I would change it in the following ways to rectify some of the problems listed above. Firstly, the coefficient system as a whole is not a bad idea, however, I feel the 80:20 ratio of European to domestic competition is too much. I think 70:30 or even 65:35 would be more appropriate to prevent the smaller teams resting players and gaining an unfair advantage. I also think that the top leagues' champions should also be guaranteed places in the top 2 pots. This would prevent the unfair treatment of teams like City, and would also prevent just top 4 sides like Arsenal constantly being placed in the top pots. I do not advocate placing champions all in pot 1, as that completely ignores previous European experience, but the top 2 leaves sufficient wiggle room. Finally, I would also scale down the bonus for getting out of the group to 3, and then add 1 point for every round negotiated, and 5 to the eventual runner-up. This will allow those that have been most successful in the previous campaign to reap the full reward for their efforts. Though I am certain that this system would have alternative problems, I am sure that it would solve many of the current ones.
The result of this system is this year's draw, which has shown the benefits and problems with the current system. Based on the club coefficients, pot 1 consisted of holders Bayern Munich, along with Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Benfica and Porto. Pot 2 had Atletico Madrid, Schalke 04, CSKA Moscow, AC Milan, Marseille, Shakhtar Donetsk, Paris Saint Germain and Juventus. In Pot 3 was Manchester City, Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Basle, Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiakos and Zenit Saint Petersburg. Finally, Pot 4 had Real Sociedad, FC Copenhagen, Viktoria Plzen, Celtic, Steaua Bucharesti, Anderlecht, Napoli and Austria Vienna.
Group A: Manchester United, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bayer Leverkusen, Real Sociedad
Not the easiest group, but by no means the hardest. After the second pot was drawn, fans of Manchester United and David Moyes would have been very happy. The final two sides will make life difficult for the new United manager. I would still expect the English champions to get out of the group, but there may well be one or two bumps along the way. Bayer Leverkusen would be my tip for second, unless United have another 2011/2012 style capitulation.
Group B: Real Madrid, Juventus, Galatasaray, Copenhagen
A case of three into two doesn't go in this group, with Copenhagen seemingly destined for the nul point mark. Despite Galatasaray's impressive performances against Madrid last season, I expect them to be the side that has to exit. As for the winner of the group, I think a Madrid side consisting of Bale, Ronaldo, Casillas, Benzema et al will have enough, but I expect it to be a close run thing with Juve.
Group C: Benfica, Paris Saint Germain, Olympiakos, Anderlecht
One of the contenders for easiest group of the night, with PSG the likely beneficiaries. After another summer spending spree, the Parisians should find this group fairly straight-forward, leaving Olympiakos and Benfica to fight it out over the final qualifying position. Benfica get my vote, with the previous experience of Champions League qualification vital.
Group D: Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, Manchester City, Viktoria Plzen
Though the holders will present a challenge, this is a considerably easier group than either of the two previous draws for the English side. With the quality they have in their ranks, I fully expect them to get themselves out of the group stage for the first time, though perhaps only as runners-up. I expect that escaping the group is the expectation this year, with anything else seen as a bonus. Bayern should win the group, and I wouldn't bet against them reaching a third consecutive final.
Group E: Chelsea, Schalke 04, Basel, Steaua Bucharesti
Probably my pick for easiest group, with Chelsea the firm favourites to progress as winners. Schalke only qualified in 4th place in Germany, and the other two have come from less well know footballing nations. I expect the Germans to join the Londoners in the last 16, but I wouldn't be surprised if either of the other two upset the apple cart a little.
Group F: Arsenal, Marseille, Borussia Dortmund, Napoli
Certainly a contender for the hardest group of the night, with all four coming from competitive footballing nations. Though the Gunners were top seeds, I would not be at all surprised to see them fall at the first hurdle this time around. The pedigree and experience of the Borussia Dortmund side, along with the expensively assembled and impressive Napoli outfit will present an incredibly difficult test. Without significant spending on improvements, I think this could be the first English side out of this year's Champions League.
Group G: Porto, Atletico Madrid, Zenit Saint Petersburg, Austria Vienna
Though not the toughest group, this has the potential to be one of the most intriguing. All three of the top pots have the realistic potential to make it through, and though one would expect Austria Vienna to perish, they could be the APOEL Nicosia of this season.
Group H: Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic
And we finish with the hardest group of them all. As Neil Lennon visibly sunk into his chair at the announcement of his team's participation in this group, this said all that needed to be said about the state of Group H. Unlike others, which will have a handful of interesting fixtures, this group has the potential to have an enthralling game every time (especially if Celtic perform against Barcelona the way they did last time around!)
The draw for this season's Champions League has thrown up a few gems, with a couple of classics in the offing. I do hope that the hardest groups live up to expectation, and we genuinely see the best 16 teams in the competition progress. Unfortunately, thanks to the coefficient system, I fear that this will not be the case.
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